Sean Manae
The St. Louis Cardinals are doing a “reset” and looking to part with some of their biggest contracts. As part of that, they’re looking to trade Nolan Arenado, who has named six teams he’s be willing to be traded.
One of those teams is the New York Mets. There’s a lot to consider when contemplating such a trade.
First, Arenado has three years $64 million remaining on his deal for whoever obtains him. The three years are broken down as $27 million (2025), $22 million (2026), and $15 million (2027). That’s not an onerous contract for the Mets.
Addressing Pete Alonso for a second, he turned down a 7 year $158 deal ($22.6 million AAV). As such, he’s likely going to carry a higher cost over the next three years than Arenado.
In theory, executing an Arenado trade would be cheaper than re-signing Alonso. As a result, the Mets could free up money to do other things like sign Sean Manae and rebuild their bullpen (again).
Before getting there, let’s analyze what Arenado is and is not; what he would do for the Mets.
First and foremost, Arenado brings defense. No, he’s not the otherworldly defender he was three years ago. He’s regressed into merely being ONLY the third best defensive third baseman in the game.
That addresses a major problem the Mets had. Mark Vientos’ bat was a revelation which took the Mets to new heights. His glove was better than advertised but still not good.
Vientos was the fifth worst defensive third baseman. Moving him to first already improves the Mets defensively. Replacing him with Arenado is like going from the discovery of the wheel directly to a race car.
Arenado and Francisco Lindor would immediately become the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. It could rival Rey Ordoñez and Robin Ventura. It would be that great.
A defensive upgrade like that makes the pitching staff better. With David Stearns optimizing run prevention, this would seem like the perfect move.
It’s far from a no brainer. After all, if you’re going to part ways with Alonso, you better be sure it’s the right decision.
The biggest hesitation with Arenado is the bat. He will be 34 on Opening Day, and he’s clearly in decline.
In 2022, Arenado posted a career best 149 wRC+. In the subsequent two years, he’s posted a 106 and a 102.
He’s coming off a year with a career worst in nearly every offensive metric. He barely barreled any pitches (3.2%), and he had a career low exit velocity. Both appear part of a career decline.
Simply put, he’s not hitting the ball hard anymore. He’s a league average hitter, and in all likelihood, he will soon be a below average hitter.
Now, Arenado’s defense is at a point where it can offset the dip in offense. He will likely be a productive player, and with his salaries deceasing, he should fulfill his contract.
Still, Alonso is a far superior hitter. In a down year, he had a 122 wRC+. He still has game changing power as evidenced in the NL Wild Card Series. Part of the issue for the 30 year old is how many more years he has as a premier slugger.
In an ideal world, the Cardinals would take back Starling Marte in a trade. However, it’s hard to see the Cardinals taking back a 36 year old right fielder making $20.75 million.
That could be the case even if the Mets were also willing to take on Steven Matz and his $12.5 million contract. As an aside, Matz would help in the bullpen.
If the deal makes sense, the Mets should go get Arenado. He will make them better. He probably raises the ceiling more than Alonso would. That all said, if the Mets go this route they better be right.
The New York Mets landed Juan Soto, and it just seems like everything got crazier. The starting pitching market is starting to heat up, and the team is going to be pushed to sign Sean Manae or look elsewhere.
If not, Manae, then who? Walker Buehler? Wait out Roki Sasaki?
Oh, and by the way, are the Mets going to be able to keep Pete Alonso?
While this is all happening, the Mets have yet to address their biggest need – the bullpen.
The bullpen was easily the Mets biggest weakness in 2024. It almost cost the team a chance of being competitive, and later, it almost cost them a chance of making the postseason.
By and large, the biggest disparity between the Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers was their respective bullpens. The Dodgers rode theirs to a World Series, and they annihilated the Mets bullpen en route to winning.
As we know, the Mets are set at closer with Edwin Díaz. Now, they need to work on building the bridge to him.
Ryne Stanek served that role extremely well in the postseason. He had only allowed one earned over his first 5.2 innings, and he had that incredible 2.1 inning appearance in Game 5 of the NLCS picking up the win.
He’s won a World Series with the 2022 Houston Astros. Overall, he has a 2.89 postseason ERA going 4-0 with a 0.821 WHIP and a 9.3 K/9.
He’s a clutch postseason reliever. For Mets fans of old, it’s reminiscent of Dennis Cook. With the goal being to win the World Series, you want Stanek in your bullpen.
Now, the regular season has been a different story. Truth be told, he had a bad 2024, and that included his 6.06 ERA in 17 appearances with the Mets.
Still, he is a quality reliever with a career 114 ERA+. Also, as noted by Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Stanek is one of the best relievers available per that Stuff+ metric.
As noted by Fangraphs, Stuff+ “aims to capture the “nastiest” pitches in baseball, using a decision tree-based model to capture the nonlinear relationships that exist across release points, velocities, pitch movement, and more.” Read the article for more detail.
This is again where Jeremy Hefner factors into the equation. He’s long been a good pitching coach, but this past season was likely his best. He did wonders across the pitching staff. That included his work with Stanek.
Stanek has always had great stuff. He’s at his best in the big moments. He’s shown he can handle the stage. He’s everything the Mets need and want, and the team should make sure to keep him.
Let’s be honest for a moment. When Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets from the Wilpons, he never said he was going to have the highest payroll in baseball.
That was just our assumption. Actually, it was our prayers. We felt like we deserved it after the Wilpons austerity.
What Cohen did say was he planned to emulate the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s officially done that. He just had to bide his time.
Where the Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman, the Mets have David Stearns. Where the Dodgers traded and extended Mookie Betts, the Mets did that with Francisco Lindor.
Now, where the Dodgers got Shohei Ohtani, the Mets landed Juan Soto.
The Dodgers got to be THE destination. Look, Ohtani was only considering the Dodgers. We can argue whether he coordinated with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Looking back, Yamamoto seemed like the test of Cohen’s power. The Mets were all-in on him and gave him the biggest offer. To be fair, the Dodgers matched the Mets offer.
It also isn’t like players had spurned the Mets. Both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander eagerly joined the Mets after receiving big contracts.
People can laugh at those deals all they want, but it worked out well for the Mets. Scherzer helped lead the Mets to the postseason. Moreover, the Mets have already benefitted from the trades with Luisangel Acuña being an important contributor down the stretch in 2025.
The Mets are being built the way you build a team that will be good and relevant for the next decade and beyond.
This plan really started in 2023 when Stearns took the helm. The decision to sit back and see what was here actually paid massive dividends.
Pitchers want to come here now with Sean Manae’s career reaching new heights, Luis Severino saving his career. Laugh at Grimace all you want, but that, the OMG, and the winning (mostly the winning) make the team something that made players want to be a Met.
This isn’t about poaching Soto from the New York Yankees. It’s not a big brother-little brother thing. It’s about making the Mets the best team in New York and perhaps all of baseball.
As Jeff Passan of ESPN said, “I think Juan Soto looked at the New York Mets’ future … and believed that the Mets have a better future than Yankees.”
Yes, the Mets have Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. They also have budding stars in Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos. Just imagine for a second the stratosphere Soto and his hitting genius can help take Alvarez and Vientos.
The Mets are set to win in 2025 because of what was already at Citi Field. This is an NLCS team who just added Soto.
Maybe the Mets win in 2025. Maybe they don’t. The National League is still a gauntlet with the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Padres.
Still, the Mets have one of the best teams in baseball with high level talent from the minors on the way. This team is special and will be a special one for years to come.
For those of you who don’t remember the 1980s, even with them winning just once, the Mets were THE team. They’re on the path to being that again.
That started with Cohen. It continues with Soto. Promises are being fulfilled, and our wildest dreams are coming true.
Last year, a large part of the New York Mets making the postseason was their rolling the dice on Sean Manae and Luis Severino. Apparently, David Stearns is looking to execute the same plan for 2025.
The Mets agreed to terms with Frankie Montas on a two year $34 million deal. Like with Manae last year, Montas can opt out after the first year of the deal.
Last Mets fans saw Montas, they knocked him out of the fourth inning of Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on six hits and three walks on 60 pitches.
Truth is, Montas hasn’t been all that good for a few years now. Back in 2022, much of baseball thought the New York Yankees got off cheap acquiring Montas from the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline.
Prior to that deal, Montas had pitched six years for the Athletics posting a 111 ERA+ and a 3.72 FIP. He finished sixth in the 2021 Cy Young voting.
In all of Montas’ other stops, he was a 92 ERA+ or worse. At least in terms of the Yankees, it was due to a series of injuries. That right there is your Mets/Severino parallel.
Like with Severino, the Mets are grabbing Montas the year following the proof he was healthy. Montas did make more starts and threw more innings.
The Mets hope they can have Montas improve upon the pitcher he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. In Milwaukee, he roughly pitched 5+ innings per start while striking out 11 per nine.
Even with the uptick in his K/9, his K% was lower than it was with the Yankees. Digging deeper, his Baseball Savant page is a lot of blue. He’s not getting good extension or spin, and perhaps not coincidentally, his whiff rates are low.
Still, we saw Jeremy Hefner get the most out of this pitching staff last year. Manea radically altered his delivery. Peterson changed his pitch mix to feature his sinker more. Severino stopped tipping his pitches.
Between Hefner and the analytics, the Mets are showing they can get the most out of their starters. At one time, Montas was viewed as a top of the rotation pitcher. The Mets are gambling by presumably giving him the fourth or fifth starters job to earn his way back to that status.
With the Mets, you’d think they’re at a spot where they don’t take projects like this. It’s what makes this signing odd. You thought after 2024, they would be in a different spot.
Then again, this is why they hired David Stearns. This is what could give them the room to sign Juan Soto along with whatever else they need.
Still, this is a gamble, and that’s what makes this signing so odd.
The Los Angeles Dodgers made the first big signing of the offseason by inking two time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five year deal. The deal was worth $182 million comprised of a $52 million signing bonus and deferred money.
With Snell, the perfect conditions were in place for things to get done this quickly:
- The Dodgers targeted Snell;
- The Dodgers will World Series contenders in 2025;
- The Dodgers have very deep pockets; and
- Snell lingered on the free agent market last offseason leading him to want to strike a quick deal this offseason.
For the Mets, Manae has vocalized his wanting to return to the Mets. The team and organization love him with teammates attending his wedding.
Manae finally seemed to hit that ceiling people thought he was capable of reaching. Part of that was changing his delivery to emulate Chris Sale. Another important factor was the analytics department coupled with Manae’s work with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner.
While not as long as Snell, Manae did have to wait until January to sign. He got a similar deal to Snell in both received a one year deal with a player option (both obviously declined their options).
Manea is a year older than Snell without the same historic success. Snell was the better of the two, but Manae was one of the better starters in the second half of the season.
Manae is not going to get a similar contract. That said, there should be an avenue for the Mets to strike early.
We know the team needs at least two starters. We don’t know where Corbin Burnes market will go. There are prevalent rumors Roki Sasaki going to the Dodgers is a fait accompli. There are other options with equal issues.
With Manae, you know there’s a pitcher who wants to be there. You know this is a pitcher who thrived in New York. He’s a pitcher who is everything the Mets could need or want.
The Mets need to move quickly to lock in Manae like the Dodgers did with Snell. They need to remove some uncertainty with their rotation. They need to move quick to sign Manae before someone else does.
When looking at the New York Mets free agents, it’s obvious they need to push to keep Sean Manae. Of course, fans want to keep Pete Alonso.
However, when you break it all done, Jesse Winker might just be the most important free agent to re-sign this offseason.
Winker has had an interesting relationship with this franchise. First, he was an irritant. Then, he joined a Mets franchise he said he long wanted to play for. He following a massively disappointing post-trade deadline regular season with a great postseason.
With the postseason, we saw Winker slot nicely in as a platoon DH option. It was from that position, he did the most damage as a Met including his NLDS homer against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Looking at this Mets team, there isn’t a pure DH option available. Digging deeper into free agency, there isn’t a clear cut better option than Winker, and no, we’re not going to consider that horrendous human being, Marcell Ozuna, as an option.
Winker, 31, has been a solid hitter and on-base machine in his career. Over his eight year career, he has a 121 wRC+ and a .367 OBP. In many ways, you could describe him as Brandon Nimmo lite.
He’s at the tail end of his prime. After a troubling decline in his metrics the previous few seasons, he rebounded in 2024 showing an improved exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate.
Mostly, with the Mets, he brings something different to the table. He brings an edge they haven’t had in years, and he has a way of getting under everyone’s skin the way he used to irritate Mets fans in previous seasons.
Going back to Nimmo for a moment, the Mets do need other everyday outfield options to help keep him healthy. For his part, Winker can play left field but can’t everyday. In all honesty, he’s one of the worst corner outfielders in the game as evidenced by the Mets keeping a hobbled Nimmo in left over him.
That said, it’s a 162 game season. The Mets can find spots for Winker to give Nimmo a day. There’s certainly value in that.
The other downside is he’s really just a platoon option at DH with a career 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. However, when looking at the Mets roster, that might be a benefit for them.
Starling Marte is 36, struggles against right-hand pitching, and might actually be a worse fielder than Winker. The Mets always need Mark Vientos in the lineup, but they don’t need his glove in the field. Francisco Álvarez can benefit from more days off behind the plate while getting consistent plate appearances.
All told, whether or not the Mets sign Juan Soto, Winker is a fit at DH. The team can use his bat from the left side at DH, his flair for the dramatic, and his edge. He’s the rare player built to thrive in New York, and the Mets should work quickly to keep him here.
For a brief moment when Jeff McNeil singled home Tyron Taylor, you let yourself dream one last time. Francisco Álvarez was suddenly hitting great, and then it’s Francisco Lindor. Mark Vientos would represent the tying run . . . .
Look, if there was any team that could do it, it was this New York Mets team. If anything, a six run rally with two outs would perfectly encapsulate what this team had been.
Sadly, Álvarez grounded out to end the series.
They’ll tell us the Los Angeles Dodgers were just the better team. The Mets were lucky to get this far. Us Mets fans know better.
There was so much fun with this team with Grimace and OMG. Jose Iglesias was this year’s José Valentíne. Sean Manae became an ace. Carlos Mendoza looks like he may well soon be the best manager in baseball.
Lindor was an MVP in every sense of the word. Vientos finally got his chance and would show the world he’s a star in the making. Pete Alonso reminded us why we loved him so.
This is a Mets team we will remember and cherish forever.
The reasons to adore this team are far too many to count, but in the end, this team was quintessentially a Mets team. In some ways, this run was reminiscent of the 1999 run that just fell short. Fortunately, with Steve Cohen and David Stearns, we know this is just the beginning of what can be a long, dominant stretch.
As for now, time just caught up with this team.
Brandon Nimmo was just too injured. There were just too many innings on the arms of Manae and Luis Severino. There wasn’t enough time for Kodai Senga to get where he needed to be. José Buttó and Phil Maton couldn’t carry that regular season success into the postseason.
In the moment, you’re wringing your hands saying if only the Mets got just one hit (other than Vientos’ grand slam) with the bases loaded it would be a completely different series. There are moves like J.D. Martinez in Games 3 and 4 where you’re left wondering what if . . . .
Sitting there on my couch with an upset 10 year old, all you can say is this one hurt. It’s hurts that they lost. It hurts because we all completely fell in love with this team and reminded you why you love the New York Mets with every fiber of your being.
This was the first real postseason run for my kids. For me, I was way too young in 1986, and 1988 was fleeting. But to this day, I’ll forever cherish the 1999 team.
I can tell you everything about that team, and I’ll fight anyone who doesn’t say that wasn’t the greatest defensive infield of all time.
For my sons, Lindor is their Mike Piazza. Vientos is their Edgardo Alfonzo. Manea and Severino are their Al Leiter and Rick Reed. Fortunately, no one will be their Armando Benitez.
Ultimately, this is the team you point back to and say this is why I love baseball. I love the Mets.
When they’re raising their sons to be Mets fans, they will talk about Lindor against the Braves, Alonso against the Brewers, Vientos’ NLDS, and all this season entailed.
For now, it’s pain. In the days, weeks, and months ahead, it’ll be fondly remembered.
For my dad, I don’t know how many more of these we have left. The 1999 and 2000 runs we special. It’s only cruel we had Adam Wainwright doing color in the this year’s NLDS. We left Game 3 of the 2015 World Series thinking they were going to win. We were holding onto hope after Game 5.
There’s always a certain magic when the Mets make these runs. Maybe it’s because it’s just their 11th postseason appearance, but in reality it’s more.
Because it’s always so special and magical, it hurts more. I wanted this for Lindor and what we have the fans, for Alonso in what may be his last year with the Mets, and Nimmo for staying.
Mostly, I wanted it for my family. I don’t want to be the 1994 New York Rangers fan or 2004 Boston Red Sox fan visiting a grave telling dad we finally did it. I want to be there with my boys, dad, and brother having that one moment.
Just one.
Maybe this is the springboard for 2025. Maybe that will be the year the Mets won. For now, it’s just appreciating what was while thinking about what could have been.
So, to that, thank you to the 2024 Mets for this magical season. Your team will be forever loved by Mets fans and will always have a special place in my heart.