Robert Gsellman
Last night was a night of the narrowest of margins. The Mets entered the night with a one game lead in the Wild Card race. They were also facing Julio Teheran who absolutely owns the Mets. Once the Mets got a 1-0 lead, they needed to do everything they could do to protect that lead.
Terry Collins didn’t.
Robert Gsellman entered the sixth inning having thrown 75 pitches. In his young career, opposing batters are hitting .429/.500/.500 off Gsellman when he crosses the 75 pitch mark. Better yet, opposing batters are hitting .368/.455/.421 off of him the third time through the order. After Gsellman retired Teheran to start the inning, the Braves hitters were getting a third look at him.
Ender Inciarte and Adonis Garcia hit back-to-back singles. Gsellman was losing it, and Mets killer Freddie Freeman was stepping to the plate. It was at this point anyone would’ve gone to the bullpen for the lefty. However, Collins didn’t do that as HE HAD NO ONE WARMING UP!
It was the right spot for Josh Smoker. Freeman doesn’t hit sliders or splitters well, and he has a tendency to swing and miss at fastballs. Furthermore, Smoker entered the night striking out 15.3 batters per nine. Instead, Collins stuck with Gsellman, who would walk Freeman to load the bases.
That lead to Matt Kemp hitting a ball that should’ve been caught by either Curtis Granderson, or even better, Jay Bruce. Instead, it dropped in for an RBI “single.” At this point, Collins went to Smoker to pitch to Nick Markakis with the bases loaded. It was two batters too late.
Smoker here was the right spot even if he wound up walking Markakis to give the Braves a 2-1 lead.
Honorable mention for Collin’s Decision of the Game should also go to him leaving Jerry Blevins out to dry.
Fernando Salas had come on to get the last two outs of the sixth, and he started the seventh inning. After he allowed a leadoff single to Dansby Swanson, and Teheran failed to get the bunt down, Collins went to Blevins to pitch to Ender Inciarte. Blevins didn’t get the job done as he allowed Inciarte to get on with a single. Collins stuck with Blevins to pitch to Adonis Garcia. Even with Garcia killing lefties this year while being unable to hit righties, the move was understandable with Freddie Freeman on deck.
After Garcia homered to make it a 5-1 game and Freeman hit a double to deep center, you really had to question why Blevins was still in the game. The move to intentionally walk Kemp was certainly questionable. Still, Blevins settled down enough to strike out Nick Markakis for the second out. At that point, Collins went with Rafael Montero of all people to get the Mets out of the inning.
He went with Montero despite how hard he’s been hit this year and his troubles throwing strikes. It was just inviting further disaster and for the Braves to put the game completely out of reach. The fact that it wound up working isn’t proof it was the right move. Rather, it was proof that Collins got lucky.
At that point too, you have to question why Montero wasn’t double-switched into the game. Montero is now the Mets version of the white flag. If you’re bringing him in, you might as well let him close the game out and save your bullpen. The perfect opportunity was there too with Jay Bruce making the last out of the sixth inning. The move to Montero for one-third of an inning made no sense whatsoever. It made less sense when you consider Collins went to Jim Henderson in the next inning.
Overall, Collins had yet another bad game. Again, he was not prepared for the moment, and it wound up costing the Mets.
Other than Asdrubal Cabrera, who was 3-3 with two walks and an RBI double, everyone involved with the Mets had a hand in this putrid loss. That’s the way it is for a team that is 1-7 with RISP for the first seven innings.
Robert Gsellman cruised through five innings before struggling in the sixth. He loaded the bases with one out. To his credit, he did get Matt Kemp to hit a medium depth fly ball to right center that should’ve been caught.
It wasn’t. It fell between Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce. The conversation probably went like this:
- Granderson: “Jay, that’s yours. I have no arm.”
- Bruce: “Sure, I got it.”
- [Ball Drops]
- Granderson: “I told you it was yours!”
- Bruce: “I know, but in case you haven’t noticed, I suck as a Met.”
By the way, yes, Terry Collins played Bruce over Michael Conforto despite: (1) Bruce being terrible; (2) Conforto playing well the past two nights; and (3) Playing Bruce over Conforto violates the “You hit you play” mantra. And, yes, Collins should’ve pulled Gsellman before it got to this point.
Josh Smoker relieved Gsellman, and he got squeezed on a 2-2 pitch:
Call hurts #Mets
Ball 3 should be strike 3
Top 6 Smoker vs Markakis
10% call same
3.4in from edge pic.twitter.com/T1PNamHcTO— Mets Strike Zone (@MetsUmp) September 21, 2016
He then walked Nick Markakis on the 3-2 pitch giving the Braves a 2-1 lead.
That lead grew to 5-1 when Collins unnecessarily stayed with Jerry Blevins. Dansby Swanson led off the seventh with a single off Fernando Salas. After Julio Teheran failed to bunt him over, Collins went to Blevins to face Ender Inciarte.
Inciarte singled, and then the RIGHT hand hitting Adonis Garcia hit a three run homer. Of course, Collins could’ve stuck with Salas, but no, he went to his second lefty there.
The Braves continued to tee off Blevins. It got so bad Rafael Montero of all people had to bail him out of out the two on two out jam.
Collins’ inactivity proved costly especially after a Mets eighth inning rally that was helped by the Braves pulling Teheran.
Cabrera got it started with a one out walk. Seriously, who else would get things started? After Yoenis Cespedes was hit by a pitch, Granderson hit an RBI double. T.J. Rivera hit a sac fly to make it 5-3. The Braves would bring in the lefty Ian Krol to face Bruce.
It wouldn’t happen because Collins would hit Eric Campbell for Bruce. Campbell actually cane through with a pinch hit RBI single. As Terry was rolling the dice, he then hit Kevin Plawecki for James Loney. After Plawecki reached on an error, Collins rolled a snake eyes with his sending Travis d’Arnaud to the plate. d’Arnaud grounded out to kill the rally.
The Mets had their chance in the ninth off Braves closer Jim Johnson. Cabrera hit a seeing eye two out single to bring up Cespedes. It was the exact situation you want. Johnson then made Cespedes look silly on a 2-2 pitch to end the game.
When a player goes down, the natural inclination is to go seek out a veterans to be the stop gap or replacement. The reaction is understandable because you want a steady presence with someone who has proven stats. Granted, it’s most likely going to be diminished stats, but people would rather deal with that than a young player who may not be ready and could be even worse than the veteran.
That’s why we saw the Mets make a move to re-acquire Kelly Johnson not too long after David Wright went down. It’s why the Mets acquired James Loney to replace Lucas Duda. It’s also why the Mets brought back Jose Reyes to help an injured and underperforming Mets offense. It’s also why the Mets traded for Jay Bruce rather than counting on Michael Conforto to return to form. For the most part, it has worked out for the Mets.
With that said, Reyes is the only imported veteran who is currently producing. Johnson is mired in a 12-54 slump. Loney has hit .253/.287/.337 since the All Star Break. Bruce has hit .181/.261/.297 since joining the Mets.
These underperforming veterans coupled with the Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores injuries have forced the Mets to turn to some youngsters.
T.J. Rivera has all but taken over the second base job for the rest of the year. In the five games since he became the starting second baseman, he is hitting .450/.455/.800 with two home runs. Both of those home runs proved to be game winners. For the season, he is hitting .344/.344/.492.
Yesterday, Conforto started for Bruce, who the Mets have taken to booing after every at bat. Conforto made the most of his opportunity going 2-4 with two RBI. In the four games he was given an opportunity to start since he was recalled when rosters expanded, Conforto has gone 4-16 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk, and a hit by pitch.
It’s not just the offensive players that are outprodicing the veterans, it is the young pitchers as well.
When Matt Harvey went down, the Mets understandably turned to Logan Verrett who did an admirable job filling in as a spot starter last year. Unfortunately, this year he had a 6.45 ERA as a starter in 12 starts. The Mets also went out and brought back Jon Niese who was actually worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates before undergoing season ending knee surgery.
With Verrett and Niese faltering and the injuries to Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom, the Mets had no choice but to go with their young pitchers.
First was Seth Lugo, who has arguably been the Mets best starter since he has joined the rotation. Lugo has made six starts going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. Including his nine relief appearances, Lugo is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP.
He is joined in the rotation by Robert Gsellman. Gsellman has made four starts and one relief appearance where he came in for Niese when he went down for good with his knee injury. Overall, Gsellman is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP.
In addition to the offense and the rotation, the Mets have had Josh Smoker emerge in the bullpen. In 15 appearances, Smoker is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while bailing the Mets out of a few jams. More impressively, he is striking out 15.3 batters per nine innings.
Overall, these young and untested players have stepped up and helped take the Mets from an under .500 team to a team 11 games over .500 and in the top Wild Card spot.
The Mets have had a number of players serve as admirable replacements and stop gaps to help lead the Mets charge back to the postseason.
Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have replaced the injured Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz in the Mets rotation, and they have combined to go 6-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP in nine starts and 10 relief appearances. James Loney had a terrific first half to help cushion the blow of the loss of Lucas Duda. Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson have helped to replicate the offensive production of Neil Walker who is done for the season after having season ending back surgery. After Flores went down with a neck injury, T.J. Rivera had the game of his life. When Juan Lagares needed surgery to repair a torn ligament in this thumb and Yoenis Cespedes found himself unable to play center field with his injured quad, Curtis Granderson began playing center field and hitting again. Same goes for Alejandro De Aza. For the very few games Justin Ruggiano played, he mashed left-handed pitching.
However, while each of these players have done a better than expected job, there is no doubt the Mets would be better off with their regulars. Fortunately, the reinforcements are on their way with Lagares being activated off the disabled list.
With the minor league seasons having been over for about a week, Lagares has not had the benefit of being able to face live pitching. That shouldn’t matter much as Lagares’ true value has always been as a center fielder. This season the 2014 Gold Glover has returned to form with a 4.5 UZR and a 7 DRS in 59 games this season. This will allow the Mets to put out their best defensive alignment of Cespedes in left, Lagares in center, and Granderson in right late in games.
This was the alignment the Mets used effectively in the stretch run last season and in their run to the World Series. Speaking of which, Lagares was a tremendous contributor to the Mets postseason run last year. Lagares appeared in 13 postseason games last year playing a Gold Glove caliber center field while hitting .348/.375/.435 with two stolen bases. If Lagares is again able to play and raise his game again, the Mets chances of returning to the World Series will greatly improved.
And as if that wasn’t enough, Duda will be activated later today, and at a minimum, he will be available to pinch hit. On Sunday, deGrom will return to the rotation. He will start to work his way back as he’s limited to 75 pitches. Finally, Matz has been throwing off a mound.
The reinforcements are coming, and with them the Mets chances of winning a World Series has vastly improved.
The obvious answer to when a team loses a game is after they have recorded their 27th out. It’s also the technically correct answer. However, there are moments within a game, the proverbial turning points, when a team really loses the game.
With respect to today’s game against the Nationals, many will pinpoint the moment Wilson Ramos hit a solo home run off Fernando Salas in the bottom of the seventh. It would be the only run scored in the game. The reason it was the only run scored on the game was because the Mets offense wasted a chance to put a crooked number on the board in the first inning.
Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera led off the game with back-to-back singles off Tanner Roark. Curtis Granderson then drew a one out walk to load the bases. Then Jay Bruce stepped up to the plate. Bruce was brought to the Mets exactly for moments like this. He’s a “proven run producer.” Bruce struck out on three straight pitches.
After T.J. Rivera fouled out, the rally was over. From that point forward, the Mets would only get one more hit. It was important to get a hit there because Roark entered the game with a career 2.76 ERA against the Mets having never allowed more than two earned runs against them in any appearance. Their chance to win the game was right then and there, and they blew it.
It also spoiled a terrific effort by Robert Gsellman. The Gazelle shut out the Nationals over 5.2 innings only allowing five hits and one walk with four strikeouts. It was probably the best he looked in his short time in the majors.
He got into a little trouble in the sixth. He allowed a leadoff single to Roark, and Roark would advance on a wild pitch. At that point, even with two outs, Terry Collins wasn’t messing around with Daniel Murphy coming to the plate.
Not only did Collins bring in Josh Smoker, he ordered Smoker to intentionally walk Murphy. Smoker then caught Bryce Harper looking to get out of the jam.
Instead of this spurring the Mets to victory, it just delayed the inevitable. The Mets never threatened after the first losing the game. With it, the Mets lost the chance to go to 10 games over .500, and they missed the chance to leap to the top of the Wild Card standings.
Game Notes: In going 1-2, Murphy has gotten a hit in all 19 games against the Mets this season. The Nationals were 12-7 against the Mets this year after going 8-11 last year. Rene Rivera threw out two base stealers to complete strike ’em out-throw ’em out double plays.
Given the pitching matchup and the location of today’s game, tonight’s game wasn’t a guarantee. That went double when you consider the game was at the Mets own House of Horrors in Turner Field that is thankfully closing at the end of the season. Before it closes, the Mets have some demons to exercise. They did just that tonight despite a slow start.
The Mets had a chance to score off Julio Teheran in the first, but they couldn’t cash in. A Curtis Granderson walk loaded the bases with one out. However, the Mets wouldn’t score as Wilmer Flores hit into the inning ending 6-4-3 double play. It was a giant missed opportunity.
Instead if having a lead, the Mets would soon trail in the game. Matt Kemp lead off the second with a solo home run off Robert Gsellman.
The Braves would then expand on their 1-0 lead with a big fifth. Gsellman had almost navigated through a Dansby Swanson leadoff single. He stood on third with two outs when Adonis Garcia singled him home. The Braves then proceeded to load the bases. Nick Markakis hit a two run single to right to give the Braves a 4-0 lead. Once again the tales of Jay Bruce‘s arm were greatly exaggerated.
In reality, the main difference between this Gsellman start and his others was the Braves took advantage of their opportunities. In Gsellman’s short career, he has consistently played with fire. Tonight, he got burned.
The Mets would begin the comeback in the sixth. Yoenis Cespedes hit a comebacker off Tehran which seemingly broke the spell. The insanely hot Granderson followed the Cespedes single with a two run homer to make it 4-2. It was the Mets first runs off Teheran in 29 innings.
The Braves wouldn’t expand on this lead due to a truly great Josh Smoker appearance.
Smoker inherited a mess in the sixth. Jose Reyes made a nice play to ball Swanson hit down the third base line off Jim Henderson. However, Reyes’ arm wasn’t strong enough to get the speedy Swanson. Worse yet, James Loney‘s arm wasn’t strong enough to get Jace Peterson who went from first to third on the play. Ultimately, it didn’t matter as Smoker was terrific.
Smoker first struck out A.J. Pierzynski. Then he got Ender Inciarte to hit into the inning ending 3-6-3 double play. The appearance might’ve been Smoker’s best in his short career. It did give the Mets a chance to win.
While it wasn’t as impressive as Smoker’s effort, Hansel Robles got out of a jam in the seventh to keep the Braves from tacking on to their 4-2 lead. At the time, it seemed like nothing more than a nice recovery for Robles. As it turns out, Robles would get the win.
The Mets loaded the bases with no outs in the eighth off Mauricio Cabrera. The bases shouldn’t have been loaded as Reyes hit what could’ve been a double play ball that Swanson booted. It would’ve been a tough turn with Reyes’ speed, but at a minimum, the lead runner should’ve been out.
In any event, Cespedes came up with the bases loaded, and he put together a terrific at bat hitting a deep sacrifice fly to right scoring Alejandro De Aza. The ball was deep enough to permit Reyes to go to third. Granderson followed with a bloop that seemingly stayed up forever, and still Kemp could not get to it. Just like that tie game.
The Mets took the lead on a Kelly Johnson pinch hit RBI double.
Kelly is so KLUTCH!! #LGM pic.twitter.com/uq1465DrxC
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 10, 2016
Bruce was then intentionally walked by Cabrera before he departed in favor of Jose Ramirez. Ramirez then plunked the pinch hitting Michael Conforto to make it a 6-4 game. In the inning the Mets batted around with only two hits, but it was enough to score four runs.
This set up the formula the Mets wanted. No, not Eric Campbell at first base due to all the lineup machinations, even if he did make two great plays at first in the eighth. The Mets were able to fog with Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to close out the 6-4 win.
The Mets had this chance because Granderson is playing like the Granderson of old. With him contributing like this each and every night, the Mets are certainly capable of repeating performances like tonight.
Game Notes: Gavin Cecchini was the sole non-catcher bench player who didn’t get into the game.
With the Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz injuries, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have pitched extremely well so far. With each passing day, it becomes more and more questionable deGrom and Matz can return meaning Lugo and Gsellman may have to make a postseason start.
If that is the case, they will join a list of young Mets pitchers who have been thrust into the postseason despite them only making a few career starts. Can you name the Mets who have had the fewest career starts before pitching in a postseason game? Good luck!
John Maine, Noah Syndergaard, Gary Gentry, David Cone, Matt Harvey, Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack, Sid Fernandez
After sweeping the Reds, and having won 14 of their last 18 games, the Mets have rallied from two games under .500 to get themselves back into the thick of the Wild Card race. In fact, after Wednesday’s games, the Mets are in a virtual tie with the St. Louis Cardinals. Better yet, they’re just a half game back of the Giants for the second Wild Card.
As we hit the homestretch with the Mets having 22 games remaining on the schedule, here is where everyone stands:
San Francisco Giants 74-65
The Giants are in a free-fall. They went from having the most wins in the National League before the All Star Break to having the third worst record in the National League after the break.
The Giants are 4-6 in your last 10, and they are 6-11 over their last 17 games. Even with all that, the Giants have a half-game lead over the Cardinals and Mets for the top Wild Card spot and are five games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.
The main reason why the Giants are struggling right now is their pitching. Madison Bumgarner has gone from dominant in the first half to human in the second half with a 4-4 record and a 3.66 ERA. Johnny Cueto has similarly struggled going 1-4 with a 3.90 ERA in the second half. Keep in mind, these were the only starters the Giants can truly rely upon with Matt Cain never fully came back after his injury problems, Jake Peavy missing most of the year with injuries, and Jeff Samardzjia not living up to his free agent contract.
Worse yet, when the Giants get a late lead, it isn’t safe. Santiago Castilla had blown three saves in the second half. Castilla is struggling to the point that Bruce Bochy removed him from the game against the Rockies rather than letting him make matters worse.
The Giants currently have 23 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 3 at Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Padres (57-82)
- 4 vs. Cardinals (73-65)
- 3 at Dodgers (79-60)
- 4 at Padres (57-82)
- 3 vs. Rockies (67-72)
- 3 vs. Dodgers (79-60)
The Giants remaining opponents combined winning percentage is .481. The biggest benefit to their schedule are the 10 games remaining against the Diamondbacks and Padres as the Giants have a combined 19-9 record against them.
Fangraphs gives the Giants a 66.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 70.7% chance of making the postseaon.
St. Louis Cardinals 73-65
Injuries are starting to catch up to the Cardinals who are 5-5 over their last 10. Since Aledmys Diaz went on the disabled list with a broken thumb, the Cardinals are effectively a .500 team going 17-16.
Other notable injuries are Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, and Trevor Rosenthal. While the Cardinals are keeping their heads above water, they may need to play better than .500 ball to return to the postseason.
The Cardinals currently have 24 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 4 vs. Brewers (62-77)
- 3 vs. Cubs (89-50)
- 4 at Giants (74-65)
- 3 at Rockies (67-72)
- 3 at Cubs (89-50)
- 4 vs. Reds (57-81)
- 3 vs. Pirates (68-69)
The combined winning percentage of the remaining teams is .502. Of the Cardinals remaining 24 games, 14 of them are at home where they are 30-37 on the season.
Fangraphs gives the Cardinals a 57.4% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 58.6% chance of making the postseason.
Washington Nationals 81-57
If seven with 17 remaining isn’t an insurmountable hurdle then 8.5 with 22 remaining shouldn’t be either. That goes double with Stephen Strasburg leaving his first start from the disabled list with an apparent injury. With that said, the Nationals are hot winning seven of their last 10, and with their remaining schedule, it’s going to take a miracle for the Mets to win the division. Here are the Nationals remaining games:
- 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
- 3 vs. Mets (74-66)
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Pirates (68-69)
- 4 vs Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Marlins (69-71)
The Nationals remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .461. Of the Nationals remaining 24 games, they have 16 against National League East teams, and so far, the Nationals are 42-18 against the National League East. Fangraphs gives the Nationals a 99.7% chance of winning the division, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 100% chance of making the postseason.
New York Mets 74-66
When the dust settled last night, the Mets found themselves in a virutal tie with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and a half game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card spot. It should be noted the Mets trail both the Cardinals and the Giants by one game in the loss column.
The Mets are at this point with question marks of their own. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera are each effectively playing on one leg. Neil Walker is out for the season joining David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey. With Rafael Montero‘s struggles, Gabriel Ynoa having difficulty getting major league hitters out, and Logan Verrett not living up to the challenge, the Mets have no real fifth starter at the moment. While Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have stepped up, they are not on par with Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz, neither of whom is definitive to return this season. With all that said, the Mets have hope because they have the weakest schedule out of any of the aforementioned Wild Card competitors:
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Nationals (82-57)
- 3 vs. Twins (52-88)
- 3 vs. Braves (54-86)
- 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Phillies (62-77)
The combined winning percentage of the Mets remaining opponents is .457, which is the lowest opponent’s winning percentage of any of the aforementioned teams the Mets are still chasing.
Fangraphs give the Mets a 64.5% chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 67.2% chance of making the postseason.
Overall, the Mets schedule is filled with a lot of winnable games. If the Mets take care of business, they should be returning to the postseason for the second straight season.