Robert Gsellman

Mets Final Season Grades – Terry Collins

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the tenth and final set of grades, here is Terry Collins grade:

Sometimes grading a manager can be difficult.  For starters, we cannot truly know how much of an impact the manager has in the clubhouse.  For example, one person’s “player’s manager” is another person’s “letting the inmates run the asylum.”  Essentially, that narrative is written based upon the type of year the team had.

Furthermore, in the modern game, we are unsure how much of an impact the front office has on daily decision making.  It used to be that the General Manager would hire a manager, and then he would step aside and let the manager run the team as he saw fit.  Now, there is a some level of interference in each organization.  Some provide data and other tools to the manager while others are at least rumored to try to fill out line-up cards for teams.

If we are being honest, there really are times we do not know what is and what is not a manager’s fault.  However, we do know that everything lies at the manager’s feet, and it is ultimately the manager that will have to be responsible for the choices made.  Looking at Terry Collins’ choices is complicated.  Lets review:

The Good

If you are being fair, Collins did what he was paid to do by bringing the Mets to the postseason in consecutive seasons.  That is no small feat, especially for a franchise that has only done it once before in their entire history.  There was also a large degree in difficulty in doing so, especially when you lose Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz to season-ending surgeries at different points in the season.

He also had to deal with a number of other injuries.  There was the fairly expected ones like David Wright, the reasonably foreseen like Lucas Duda, and the out of nowhere like Wilmer Flores.  Yoenis Cespedes dealt with a quad issue most of the summer too.  Once again, it was not a ringing endorsement of the medical and training staff this season.  Still, Collins dealt with it, and took a team that was two games under .500 in August, and the Mets claimed a Wild Card spot.  Again, teams normally collapse in these circumstances.  Collins’ team showed resolve, and for that, he deserves a lot of credit.

A major reason why was the emergence of Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.  These two young players contributed much earlier than expected and were better than anyone ever expected.  One reason why is Collins matched them up with Rene Rivera who has excelled mentoring young pitching.  Collins deserves credit for that as he does matching up Rivera with Noah Syndergaard to help alleviate the issues associated with Syndergaard holding on base runners.   Collins use of Rivera might’ve been the best decision he made all season, and it could very well have been the reason why the Mets returned to the postseason.

The Bad

The one issue I cannot get over all season was how reckless Collins was with his bullpen arms.  It wasn’t aggressive.  It wasn’t demanding.  The only real term to use was reckless.

In April, he put Jim Henderson into a day game after a night game despite Henderson coming off shoulder surgeries and Henderson having thrown a career high in pitches the previous night.  The reason?  Collins determined an April game was a must-win game.  In a sport that plays 162 games, no April game can be considered a must-win.  During that inning, Henderson had no velocity, couldn’t get a guy out, and he would have to be lifted from the game.  After that outing, Henderson wasn’t the same guy that made the team out of Spring Training, and he would have to be put on the disabled list with a shoulder injury.  He went from lock down seventh inning guy to removed from the 40 man roster as soon as the season ended.

Then there was Hansel Robles.  Collins treated him like every arm he ruined in his past.  Despite having a number of guys who could go more than one inning, including long man Logan Verrett, it was Robles who was called to the whip time and time again.  During a one week stretch in June, Robles threw 127 pitches over three mutiple inning appearances.  Then when he finally got some rest, Robles came right back out and threw 33 pitches over two innings.  Robles sustained the abuse well for most of the season, but then he tailed off at the end of the year.

Somehow, someway Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia never got injured.  It really is a miracle because they were used more than any other combination of relievers in baseball in 2016.  The wear and tear finally showed in the Wild Card Game when neither pitcher had much of anything left.  Both struggled in their respective innings of work.  Reed was able to get out of it, but Familia wasn’t.

While the bullpen usage was an issue, there were other problems with Collins.  He completely mishandled Michael Conforto this season.  Conforto had gone from one of the best hitters in baseball in April, to a guy Collins outright refused to play down the stretch of the season despite Conforto hitting nearly .500 in AAA during his demotion.

Keep in mind, Conforto was not the only player who regressed this season.  Travis d’Arnaud had looked prime to break out in 2016.  Unfortunately, his season was marked by injuries and regression.  With Conforto and d’Arnaud, there are two important young players who regressed under Collins.

Finally, there was the matter of how injuries were handled.  Harvey’s injury issues were blamed on mechanics.  Collins kept putting Cespedes out there everyday to play despite his clearly being hobbled.  Same goes for Asdrubal Cabrera.  The worst might have been talking Matz out of getting season ending surgery in order to pitch through what was described as a massive bone spur.  Eventually, Matz would have to scrap his slider, would experience some shoulder discomfort, and he would finally get shut down for the season.

Overall

In a sport where you are judged by wins and losses, Collins was successful despite the issues he faced.  However, many of those issues were self-inflicted.  Given the fact that he brought the team to the postseason for a consecutive year, he should have received a high grade.  However, Collins consistently risked the health of his players, and some were worse off as a result.  You need to look no further than Henderson who is right now looking to catch onto a team yet again.  Even worse yet, the young players the Mets need to take them to the next level next year are question marks due largely to Collins’ mishandling of them.  Altogether, Collins season earned him a C-.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

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Seth Lugo Needs To Throw More Curveballs

Using Statcast data, Mike Petriello of MLB.com determined pitchers have begun throwing not just more curveballs, but also curveballs with a higher spin rate. Moreover, pitchers are more inclined to use a curveball in any point in the count. One of the major reasons for pitchers using more curveballs is the results it generates. According to Statcast, batters do not have a lot of success against the curveball:

Curves above 2,600 rpm in 2016
Average: .196
Exit velo: 86.8 mph
Whiffs per swing: 32.2 percent

Curves below 2,600 rpm in 2016
Average: .225
Exit velo: 87.7 mph
Whiffs per swing: 30.2 percent

As noted by Petriello, teams are well aware of the trend, and they have been asking their pitchers to throw more curveballs. Notable examples have included Clayton Kershaw, Collin McHugh, and Rich Hill. Over the past few seasons, pitchers who have gone to an increase usage of their curveball have seen better results.

This data is promising for Seth Lugo. Lugo has the highest curveball spin rate ever recorded. In fact, Lugo actually has 43 of the top 50 spin rates ever recorded in the Statcast Era.

When Lugo has gone to his curveball, he has been extremely successful. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo’s curveball was his toughest pitch to hit. When he threw it, batters whiffed 34% of the time – most notably was the strikeout he recorded on Anthony Rizzo. When batters were actually able to make contact with the curveball, it was a groundball 52% of the time. As a result, batters slugging percentage off of the pitch was a woeful .294.

However, despite the curveball being such a dominant pitch for Lugo, he only threw the pitch 16% of the time. That made it his second least used pitch. Indeed, Lugo mainly threw fastballs, sinkers, and sliders in 2016. Overall, this was effective as Lugo was 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP. Still, there were warning signs Lugo is due for regression as evidenced by his 4.33 FIP. Overall, Lugo’s numbers were mostly fueled by his ability to limit the damage with runners on base and in scoring position. In fact, batters only hit .149 against him with runners in scoring position and .179 with runners on base.

Depending on your point of view, Lugo’s numbers last year were the result of an innate skill, pure luck, or somewhere in the middle. Quite possibly, it was Lugo’s use of the curveball in high leverage situations that helped him out of those jams. As noted above, batters have a high whiff rate and hit many groundballs against the curveball – that goes double for Lugo. Therein lies the key to his success in 2017 and beyond.

With Bartolo Colon leaving in free agency, there may very well be an opportunity for Lugo to pitch in the rotation at some point next season. If Lugo uses his curveball much more frequently, it is possible he could replicate the numbers he produced last season.  Perhaps, he could put together an even better season next year.

Hopefully, he will.  As it stands now, other than Noah Syndergaard, there are no guarantees as to who will be ready to start the year in the rotation.  Early word on Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz are positive.  There has been little to no news on Zack Wheeler since he was shut down with elbow discomfort.  With that in mind, Lugo could find himself in a competition with Robert Gsellman for the last spot in the rotation.  While Gsellman is coming off a good rookie season himself, he doesn’t have one pitch that can match Lugo’s curveball.  As it turns out, not many do.

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Mets Final Season Grades – Spot Starters

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the seventh set of grades, here are the Mets spot starters:

Logan Verrett C-

In 2015 with the Mets rotation nearing innings limits on the eve of the postseason, notably Matt Harvey, Verrett rose to the challenge, and he showed himself to be not just a capable bullpen arm, but also someone who can be a reliable spot starter.  Unfortunately, as good as Verrett was in 2015, he was that poor in 2016.

Initially, Verrett did well in the rotation after making two April spot starts for Jacob deGrom.  In those starts, he pitched six innings and allowed no runs.  However, it was when he was called upon to fill-in for an injured Harvey that Verrett really struggled, and he fell apart in August.  Overall, Verrett made 12 starts going 1-6 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.617 ERA.  There’s no sugar coating how poor those numbers are.  So why wasn’t his grade lower?

Well, Verrett was useful out of the bullpen.  In his 23 relief appearances, he was 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.453 WHIP.  His WHIP was quite poor, but overall, he was effective out of the pen, and for the most part, he went multiple innings.  There’s value in that, and it should be recognized.

Ultimately, what we learned with Verrett is he may not be as capable bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen as we once thought.  It might just be that his stuff will not permit him to go more than two times through a lineup.  Ideally, Verrett is no more than a long man in the pen or a AAA starter called-up to make a start.  He’s not both.

Rafael Montero F

What was the most surprising part of Montero’s season?  Was it his demotion to AA or was it his getting called-up to the majors two times last season?  The answer actually is it was Montero getting important September starts for a team trying to claim one of the two Wild Card spots.

It was the same old Montero.  In the minors, he pounded the strike zone, and he gave the Mets some hope they could salvage him.  In the majors, he was flat out terrible.  In his three starts and nine relief appearances, Montero was 0-1 with an 8.05 ERA and a 2.053 WHIP, and he may not have been that good.  It is still incredible that he hasn’t been taken off the 40 man roster yet.

Jon Niese F

Speaking of terrible, the Mets admitted their mistake in signing Antonio Bastardo to a two year deal, and they traded him to the Pirates to bring back Niese.  The Mets were desperate for pitching at the time, and there was some hope Niese would improve working with pitching coach Dan Warthen again.  The Mets hopes were quickly dashed.

Niese made two starts and four relief appearances for the Mets.  In those games, he was 0-1 with an 11.45 ERA and a 2.000 WHIP.  He was even worse than he was with the Pirates, and remember, he was amidst the worst year of his career with the Pirates.  In his last start, and most likely last appearance ever wearing a Mets uniform, Niese lasted a third of an inning before removing himself from the game with a knee injury.  Not too long thereafter, Niese had season ending knee surgery.  It will be interesting to see what the market will be for him this offseason.

Seth Lugo A

Lugo went from a struggling pitcher in AAA who was removed from the rotation to being one of the Mets best starting pitchers down the stretch.

During the season, we saw Lugo had the single best pitch out of anyone in the minor leagues when he embarassed Anthony Rizzo with his curveball.  As it turns out, if you measure curveballs by revolution, Lugo has one of the best curveballs in the sport.  We also saw that when Lugo needed a little extra on his fastball to get out of a jam, he could ramp it up all the way to 96 MPH.  In that way, Lugo was a bit of a throwback.  Lugo relied mostly on his B fastball and secondary pitches, but when he was in trouble, or he needed to put a batter away, he took his stuff to the next gear.  It could be one of the reasons he was so successful limiting the damage with runners in scoring position.

Overall, Lugo made eight starts and nine relief appearances for the Mets.  As a starter, he was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP.  As a reliever, he was 0-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP.  For the season, Lugo was 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP.  Not a bad season for a pitcher that got booted from the AAA rotation.

Robert Gsellman A

In the aforementioned game Niese left due to injury, it was Gsellman who relieved him.  In that game, Gsellman began to make a name for himself.  Gsellman would get better and better from start to start culminating in his seven inning, no run, eight strikeout game against the Phillies in the Mets last home regular season game.

During the season, Gsellman featured a power sinker and some still developing, but still effective secondary pitches.  That power sinker helped Gsellman go 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.276 WHIP in what was effectively nine starts.  Gsellman was better than even the Mets could have hoped he would be.  With the departure of Bartolo Colon in free agency coupled with the questions surrounding the rotation, mainly Zack Wheeler, Gsellman may very well be competing with Lugo for a spot in the Opening Day rotation.

Gabriel Ynoa C-

The main thing we learned about Ynoa during the 2016 season was the 23 year old just wasn’t ready to pitch in the major leauges.  However, due to a rash of injuries, the Mets brought him up sooner than he should have been, and they immediately put him in a relief role he was ill suited.

Ynoa would make 10 appearances for the Mets.  That included three starts in games he frankly should not have been starting.  Ynoa was called upon to start games despite not having made a start in nearly a month due to injuries and Montero being Montero.  Overall, Ynoa was 1-0 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP.  It is too soon to judge what type of career he will have, and the hope is that Ynoa will be better for the experience.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

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It Was Time For Bartolo Colon To Go

For the past three years, Bartolo Colon has pitched relatively well for the New York Mets, and he has become a fan favorite.  This past season we saw what might have been his best attribute of all – his durability.  With the Mets having a young staff, veterans like Colon, especially durable ones, are worth their weight in gold.  That might be why Colon has been paid well during his Mets tenure.

With that said, there is some danger in keeping Colon around for another year or two.  Colon has become a soft tosser whose fastball averages 90 MPH.  It’s really important to note this because he throws his fastball an astounding 89% of the time.  As he ages and his fastball velocity drops even further, the greater likelihood he is going to get hit and hit hard.  It is not too dissimilar with what happened with another fanbase’s beloved soft tosser.

In 2006, the Phillies acquired Jamie Moyer to help their rotation, and to help them chase the New York Mets.  With the 44 year old Moyer in the rotation, the Phillies would catch the Mets in 2007.  That year, Moyer was 14-12 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.445 WHIP.  The following year, Moyer would not only help the Phillies win the National League East again, he would also help the Phillies win their first World Series in 28 years.  It was also his best season in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform.

In 33 starts, the 45 year old Moyer was 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.329 WHIP.  He had a 117 ERA+, and he also averaged 83 MPH with his fastball.  Moyer would be a free agent after the 2008 season and a Phillies team basking in the glow of a World Series title, and a Phillies team putting too much stock in an outlier season from a 45 year old pitcher, gave Moyer a two year deal.  As it should have been expected, Moyer struggled in 2009 and 2010.  After that, Moyer’s Phillies career was over, and realistically speaking, Moyer’s major league career was basically over too.

This is the position the Mets are now with Colon.  After recording an 84 and 91 ERA+ in his first two seasons as a Met, Colon rebounded to have a 120 ERA+ in 2016.  Colon did it despite him losing some MPH off his fastball.  As with Moyer, the Mets are in a position to ask themselves whether the 2016 season was sustainable or an outlier.  Given Colon’s age and how hard he throws, the chances lie more with Colon’s 2016 season being an outlier than it is what can be expected of him in 2017 or beyond.

By all accounts, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz should be ready for Opening Day.  We know Noah Syndergaard will be ready to go.  Even if Zack Wheeler still needs more time, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo proved to the Mets that they not only can pitch in the major leagues, but also that they can pitch in a pennant race.

And with that, there may no longer be room for Colon on the Mets.  With that Colon decided to take a deal with the Atlanta Braves and join former Met R.A. Dickey in the rotation (it is not known if Josh Thole or Jerry Grote will be signed to catch them). Ultimately, that is a good thing.  It is a sign the Mets young aces are healthy, and it is a sign that the less experienced pitching is ready to contribute.

Many Mets fans will be disappointed in Colon’s leaving the Mets.  It is understandable as he was a fan favorite and good mentor for the young pitchers on the staff.  However, Colon was a 44 year old pitcher, and sooner or later, he is bound to have a precipitous fall-off not too dissimilar from what he saw with Moyer.  This was the right time to part ways, and in the games he doesn’t face the Mets, we should all wish him luck.  We should also hope this rotation is truly healthy and ready to withstand the rigors of the 2016 season without Colon going out and eating up all of those innings.

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Travis d’Arnaud Should Be the Mets Catcher in 2017

This offseason, the Mets have a number of important decisions to make.  How far should they go to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes?  Should they re-sign Neil Walker to play second base, or do you stick with what you have in Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, and/or Jose Reyes?  How do you properly prepare for how to deal with the David Wright situation?  Once you pick up Jay Bruce‘s option, what do you do with him?  Do you move Bruce or Michael Conforto to first base, or do you stick with Lucas Duda, who has now had lower back injuries in consecutive seasons?  Do you bring back Bartolo Colon to be the fifth starter again, or do you fully trust one of Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo to take over that role?  Overall, there are many questions on how the Mets should build the 2017 roster.

However, one avenue they don’t have to address is the catcher position.

Let’s start with the one player people will have near unanimous agreement.  Rene Rivera should return as the Mets backup catcher.  Rivera certainly earned his reputation as not only a good defensive catcher, but also one that serves as a mentor for young starting pitching.  Much of the unexpected success both Gsellman and Lugo had were partially the result of them working with Rivera.  More importantly, Rivera developed a rapport with Noah Syndergaard.  He became the ace’s personal catcher, and we saw Rivera catch seven brilliant innings from Syndergaard in the Wild Card Game.  With Rivera being arbitration eligible, he should be a lock to return in his role.

By the way, that role was the backup catcher to Travis d’Arnaud.

There is no sugar-coating it.  The 2016 season was a disaster for d’Arnaud at the plate.  In 75 games, d’Arnaud hit .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI.  He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season.  It was as bad as you can possibly imagine.  In fact, his numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season.  That year, the Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate.  The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.

Making everything all the more frustrating was d’Arnaud regressed in his ability to throw out base runners.  In 2015, he was actually league average in that department.  That is all the more impressive when you consider how the Mets starting pitchers generally do not hold on runners well.  This season d’Arnaud went back to only throwing out 22% of base runners.

Part of his offensive and throwing issues are related to mechanics.  Part of them may be related to the rotator cuff strain he had in his  throwing shoulder.  Another factor was with d’Arnaud struggling, he began to receive irregular playing time.  It could be any combination of the three.  In any event, d’Arnaud had a poor year offensively and a poor year throwing.

However, d’Arnaud was still good behind the plate.  He’s always been good at fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating baseball’s blocking the plate rules.  He still calls a good game.  He was yet again one of the best pitch framers in baseball.  In fact, his teammate. Addison Reed, said, “There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look.  He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.”  (ESPN.com).  Judging from Reed’s words, you can tell he also has the confidence of his pitching staff.

With d’Arnaud still excelling behind the plate, and there being valid reasons for his poor performance, it might just be in the Mets best interests to bet on d’Arnaud rebounding in 2017.  Remember, d’Arnaud was the same player who hit .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI in 67 games.  Arguably, d’Arnaud was one of the top offensive catchers in the game.  With his skills behind the plate, he has the rare ability to be able to hit and catch well.  With him turning 28 years old and still being a player with multiple years of control, the Mets would be best suited to count on him getting healthy in the offseason (not always a given with d’Arnaud) and letting him reclaim his 2015 form.

Another reason to bet on d’Arnaud is the weak free agent class.  Looking at the list of possible free agents, there does not exist one catcher who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.

The first catcher most people will point to is Wilson Ramos.  Even if you buy into his career year being a new norm for him, Ramos isn’t even sure he will be able to play next season after tearing his ACL.  As Ramos said himself, “Unfortunately this injury… may affect whether I am able to stay with a NL team.”  (cbssports.com).  That rules out Ramos entirely.

The next catcher that is consistently mentioned is Matt Wieters.  In 2016, despite hitting in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, Wieters hit .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers and 66 RBI.  These numbers are partially why he had an 87 OPS+ meaning he was a subpar offensive player.  Even if you are willing to overlook some of these stats because he is a switch hitter, he hit .231/.304/.346 with three homers and 15 RBI off lefties this year.

Moreoever, Wieters is nowhere near the pitch framer d’Arnaud is.  Wieters is not only unable to steal his staff a strike here or there, he is also unable to ensure that strikes thrown will be called strikes.  Another consideration is Wieters is a fairly injury prone player.  While he was healthy in 2016, he was not for the previous couple of years.  If one of the reasons you are looking to move on from d’Arnaud is health, Wieters is not your guy.

Another factor the Mets should not pursue Wieters, or whoever else you believe should be a target, is money.  Ultimately, players like Wieters are going to cost more than d’Arnaud.  That’s important when you consider Jacob deGrom is heading to his first arbitration year, and the Mets still have to find the money to re-sign Cespedes.  Any money spent this offseason is presumably less money available for the Mets to give Cespedes.  Therefore, if you sign a player, you better make sure that both is both a player of need and/or a definite upgrade over what the Mets already have.

There is no one out there who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.  In fact, they are probably not as good as him.  Worse yet, they are going to be more expensive.  With that in mind, the Mets best move would be to let d’Arnaud get healthy so he can contribute to the Mets like he did in 2015.

If he doesn’t, the Mets still have Kevin Plawecki . . . .

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

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Mets Final Grades – Catchers

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the first set of grades, I will start with the catching position:

Travis d’Arnaud C-

After a breakout 2015 season, this was supposed to be the year that d’Arnaud broke out and became an All Star caliber catcher.  Instead, we were faced with another injury plagued year, discussion of moving on from him and acquiring Jonathan Lucroy, and finally him effectively losing the starting job to Rivera.

Let’s start with the good.  Believe it or not, and many Mets fans don’t believe it, d’Arnaud had another great year behind the plate.  He was once again one of the best pitch framers in all of baseball, he called a good game, was the Mets best catcher in terms of limiting wild pitches and passed balls, did another phenomenal job of navigating baseballs plate blocking rules, and had the full confidence of his pitching staff.  And yes, while his throwing took a major step back this year due to a combination of poor mechanics and a shoulder injury, he was better than advertised trying to throw out base runners.  With that said, despite many of the stolen bases having come off the pitching staff this year, yes, d’Arnaud did regress, but it was not to the point where he became a major liability.

Now the bad.  There is no way to put it nicely.  d’Arnaud was simply terrible at the plate this year.  In 75 games, he hit just .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI. He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season. His numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season when Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate. The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.

In some ways, d’Arnaud is unique across the game of baseball.  He is the rare catcher that is expected to be a significant offensive contributor for his team.  He didn’t just fail in that regard; he was actually a liability at the plate. This was the main reason d’Arnaud eventually lost his starting job.  If he hit, he would’ve played more, but he didn’t.  In the end, it was a disappointing and yet another injury plagued season for him.  However, his 2015 season gives us hope, and that is why we can expect him to rebound and be a significant contributor next year.

Kevin Plawecki F

If you want to be fair to Plawecki, you would say he should never have started the season as the Mets backup catcher.  The former first round pick had the potential to be more than just a backup, and with that he should have been in AAA honing his craft instead of waiting idly by until d’Arnaud got injured again.

Still, that is not an excuse for Plawecki to once again squander the opportunity given to him.  Y0u think d’Arnaud’s offensive stats were bad?  Plawecki’s were worse.  In the time he was the backup and took over for d’Arnaud, Plawecki hit .194/.301/.258 with five doubles, one home run, and 10 RBI in 41 games.  He wasn’t much better in his September call-up.  For the season Plawecki hit .197/.298/.265 with six doubles, one homer, and 11 RBI.

Sure, Plawecki did hit well in AAA like everyone seems to do.  In 55 games with Las Vegas, he hit .300/.348/.484 with 11 doubles, eight homers, and 40 RBI.  While not outstanding for the Pacific Coast League, it did show a marked improvement over what he has been in the majors.  However, they were still empty numbers.  As we saw in Plawecki’s limited time in September, he had made no adjustments while in AAA.  He was still a pull happy ground ball hitter who does not make a lot of hard contact.  With the Mets likely returning d’Arnaud and Rivera next year, he is likely going to get one last shot to improve and make himself a major league hitter.

With all that said, it should be pointed out that Plawecki has established he can be an effective backup catcher at the major league level.  While he was touted for his offensive skills, Plawecki was really established himself as a good defensive catcher with excellent pitch framing skills.  Given the fact that catchers tend to develop later than other players, it would be unwise to cut bait with him even with the rise of Tomas Nido.

Rene Rivera C+

This season the Mets got the best out of what Rivera could offer.  He was a good defensive catcher, he helped Noah Syndergaard through his issues holding on base runners, he mentored Robert Gsellman and  Seth Lugo, and we discovered he could actually hit left-handed pitching pretty well.  With his work with young pitching, and with d’Arnaud’s struggles, Rivera effectively took over the starting job late in the season.

Overall, this was the second best season of Rivera’s career.  Still, he was not very good.  He only accumulated a 0.4 WAR and a 69 OPS+.  Most of his offensive stats were from a nine game July hot streak that saw him hit .323/.400/.581 with two doubles, two homers, and seven RBI.  Other than that nine game stretch, Rivera hit .201/.256/.292 with two doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI in 56 games.  Those are Plawecki type numbers the Mets wanted to move away from when they made the switch from Plawecki to Rivera as the backup catcher.

Another note, Rivera was awful behind the plate in the Wild Card Game.  Yes, he did go 1-3 off Madison Bumgarner.  However, it was his work behind the plate that was troubling.  Many criticized the work of home plate umpire Mike Winters for missing a number of close pitches made by Mets pitchers.  However, it should be noted that Buster Posey, a superior pitch framer to everyone, was getting those calls for Bumgarner.  While he is usually a good pitch framer, Rivera was terrible at it during the Wild Card Game stabbing at many pitches.  With that he extended some at-bats making Syndergaard go deeper into counts and not allowing him to pitch into the eighth.  Also, his passed ball and poor pitch framing cost Addison Reed some pitches and quite possibly gave the Giants some confidence heading into the ninth against Jeurys Familia (note: Rivera had nothing to do with Familia making a bad pitch to Conor Gillaspie).

That game marred what was a pretty good year for Rivera.  Given his rapport with Syndergaard, he should start the year as his personal catcher.  It will also be nice to have him around should Gsellman or Lugo need to make some spot starts next season.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links. 

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This Could Have Been the Mets

Last year, Ben Zobrist was one of the driving forces for a Royals team that beat the Mets in the World Series.  This year, he was more of the same for a Cubs team that is on the verge of winning their first World Series since 1908.  As luck would have it, Zobrist was one of the many “what if” decisions from the 2015 offseason that leads us to where the Mets are today.

Zobrist choosing the Cubs over the Mets led to a series of dominos falling.  It led to the Mets choosing to trade Jon Niese for Neil Walker instead of looking to re-sign Daniel Murphy.  That, coupled with Brandon Phillips rejected a trade, led Murphy to the Washington Nationals.  Murphy would go on to have an MVP caliber season.  Murphy’s season was more than enough to compensate for Bryce Harper having a down year, by his standards, and for Stephen Strasburg having yet another injury plagued year.

There were strange decisions along the way like the Mets initially passing on Yoenis Cespedes and signing Alejandro De Aza to platoon in center field with Juan Lagares.  There was the multi-year deal with Antonio Bastardo despite him being an every other year reliever and Sandy Alderson’s poor history signing relievers to a multi-year deal with the Mets.  Despite all of that, Cespedes re-signed, and the Mets once again looked like they were primed to return to the World Series in 2017.

Even with Cespedes’ return, the real hope was with the pitching.  Now one could compete with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.  If Steven Matz could join his teammates as an ace all the better.  Even with this embarrassment of riches, the Mets still had Zack Wheeler returning from Tommy John surgery.  By the way, waiting to close out those games was Jeurys Familia, who had already established himself as a great closer.  As they said pitching wins championships, and the Mets had pitching in spades.

Early in the season, it worked out.  Even with Harvey struggling, deGrom’s velocity not returning, and Wheeler’s return getting pushed back, the Mets were winning.  Part of the reason why was Syndergaard taking the next step, Matz proving he belonged in the ace discussion, and deGrom adapting well to a lower velocity.

In April, the Mets took two out of three from the Indians in Cleveland.  In a re-match of the NLCS, with a hot Cubs team looking for revenge, the Mets swept them out of Citi Field.  Against this year’s World Series teams, the Mets were 7-3.  This showed the Mets, with their pitching staff in tact, could beat the best of the best.

As we know, the pitching staff never did stay in tact.  Furthermore, despite Walker having a good year, the Mets really missed Zobrist or Murphy as the offense was just one bat short to help carry a dinged up rotation to the finish line.  Still, with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman performing better than anyone could’ve anticipated, the Mets made the Wild Card Game.  In reality, the Mets lost that game because Madison Bumgarner was able to go deeper into that game than Syndergaard was.

As we saw in the NLDS, the Giants put a scare into the Cubs by almost sending it back to Wrigley Field for a Game 5.  With the Mets having Addison Reed and Familia, who knows if a Mets-Cubs series would have gone much differently.

Really, that is one of many “what if” situations from the 2016 season that was just disappointing to Mets fans who were dreaming of a World Series this year.  As we saw last year, this Mets pitching staff can beat anybody.  In fact, this Mets pitching staff can demoralize even the best offensive clubs.   When the Mets staff was healthy and in tact this year, which was only a brief snapshot in time (if it really ever was the case), the Mets once again proved that this year.  And with that, there is hope for 2017.  As of the moment, the Mets can expect, Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, and Matz in the Opening Day rotation.  There’s no team in baseball that can match that.

So while Mets fans are sitting there melancholy and wondering “what if” during what should prove to be a great World Series, just remember the Mets have the pitching to win in 2017.  Hopefully, that thought will keep you warm throughout the winter.

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Mets Do Not Need Kenley Jansen

John Harper makes a case in the New York Daily News that the Mets need to obtain Kenley Jansen to return to the postseason stating, “If the Mets want to take a huge step toward re-claiming that supremacy next year and beyond, they should make a big splash this off-season by signing Kenley Jansen.” He figures the Mets could obtain Jansen for a four year $54 million contract. His reasoning is flawed.

First of all, there is nothing about the Mets to suggest they can win a bidding war against the Dodgers for Jansen’s services. This doesn’t even account for other bigger spenders like the Cubs, Nationals, and Yankees also potentially getting involved. More importantly, there is no underlying need for Jansen.

Furthermore, the Mets already have a dominant closer in Jeurys Familia. Over the past two seasons, Familia has accumulated more appearances, more innings, and more saves than Jansen. Additionally, despite the current narrative floating around, Familia has been better in the postseason. In 13 postseason appearances, Familia has a 2.30 ERA and a 0.638 WHIP. In 15 postseason apperances, Jansen has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP. People forget that because Familia’s defense let him down in the World Series and he threw a bad pitch to Conor Gillaspie in the Wild Card Game. They also forget because Jansen has had back-to-back great performances in the postseason. That makes you forget the times Jansen has failed or his 6.75 NLDS ERA.

More important than that, the Mets have Addison Reed in the eighth inning. It is quite possible there was no better reliever in the National League than Reed this year. Reed had an amazing season that saw him shatter the Mets record for holds with him recording 40 this season. It’s all the more impressive when you consider Reed made the third most in the majors with the fifth best 1.97 ERA, and the highest WAR among relievers (2.9). Long story short, Reed has the eighth inning locked down.

Overall, between Familia and Reed the Mets have already made games a seven inning game. With the Mets young starters going 6+ per game, they don’t need the 7-8-9 dominant trio that other teams require. In fact, up until the rash of Mets starting pitching injuries this season, the seventh inning wasn’t an issue at all. Terry Collins was able to utilize his full bullpen, notably Hansel Robles, Jerry Blevins (a pending free agent), and when healthy, Jim Henderson, to get through the inning. It wasn’t until Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman took over starting pitching spots that the seventh inning was an issue. It should be noted by that time, Fernando Salas (a pending free agent) locked it down.

The overriding point is the Mets do not need a three headed monster coming out of the bullpen to return to the postseason. Instead, the Mets need their starting pitchers healthy, and they need to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. Therein lies the rub. As noted by MMO., Mets payroll commitments for the 2017 season already hover around $108 million, and that is before the Mets seek to re-sign Cespedes, Neil Walker, and/or Bartolo Colon.

If the Mets were to re-sign Cespedes to and average annual value commensurate with his 2015 salary figure, the Mets payroll would jump to $135 million. Keep in mind, the Mets 2016 Opening Day payroll was $135 million, and the team had to stretch it to that point to accomodate Cespedes. It is hard to imagine the Mets expanding on this payroll figure when they had a higher payroll in 2016 and didn’t have a long postseason run to offset some of the cost.

If you add Jansen at an average annual value of $13.5 million, that would increase the Mets 2017 payroll to $121.5 million before address the Cespedes, second base, and fifth starter issues. Adding Jansen, a very nice but unnecessary piece, only serves to build a more dominant bullpen at the expense of building a complete team. Adding Jansen overlooks the real need for the Mets, which is their starting pitchers returning next season fully healthy. Overall, the model the Mets shouldn’t be looking at is the three headed monster in the bullpen. Rather, the Mets should be looking at their 2015 model which is being emulated by the Cleveland Indians this postseason:

A dominant young starting pitcher going as deep into the game as possible and then a two-headed monster coming out of the bullpen to win the game.

The Mets already have that in place. What they do not have in place is Cespedes. They cannot do anything to damage their chances to lock him up and return to their 2015 form.

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The Mets 2016 Minor League Season

Like the Mets, the minor league affiliates’ seasons are long over, and over at Mets Minors, organizational leaderboards are being compiled, and awards are being handed out:

Full Season Batting Leaders – statistically speaking Brandon Nimmo might’ve had the best year especially with him missing out on the Pacific League batting title by .001 points and him having the top OBP in the farm system.

Short Season Batting Leaders – Despite having had the shortest season, Peter Alonso might’ve had the biggest impact

Minor League Best Starting Pitchers – Statistically speaking, the Mets best minor league pitchers were P.J. Conlon, Thomas Szapucki, Harol Gonzalez, Ricky Knapp, and Andrew Church. 

Full Season Pitching Leaders – Naturally, the above-referenced pitchers were listed throughout.

Short Season Pitching Leaders – Gonzalez and Gary Cornish dominated for the Brooklyn Cyclones while Szapucki continued to show why he is becoming a big time prospect.

Here is how all the 2015 draft picks fared with Alonso and Justin Dunn as standouts.  And nowadays, you would be remiss without mentioning the fact that Tim Tebow homered in his first professional at-bat.

However, here are the bigger awards everyone is most curious about:

Position Player of the Year – Amed Rosario with honorable mention to Dominic Smith

Pitcher of the Year – P.J. Conlon

Reliever of the Year – David Roseboom

As you saw this season, there were major contributors from the Mets minor league system this year.  If not for Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Josh Smoker, T.J. Rivera, and others, the Mets may not make the postseason this year.  It is not only good to know the Mets minor league system has been this beneficial, but also that there is a significant amount of talent behind the players we have already seen contribute.

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Josh Edgin & Robert Gsellman on the Wild Card Game Roster; Lucas Duda, Seth Lugo, Josh Smoker Left Off

The New York Mets have announced their Wild Card Game Roster for tonight’s winner-take-all game tonight at Citi Field

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

There were a few surprises on this roster. The one that immediately stands out is the Mets not carrying Lucas Duda on the roster. In a short period of time, Duda has gone from in the conversation to starting at first base tonight to not even being on the roster. His will be a big bat the Mets will miss for a late inning pinch hitting opportunity.

The next surprise was the Mets carrying Gsellman over Seth Lugo. While Gsellman has been the hotter pitcher over the past couple of starts, Gsellman does not have the experience Lugo has coming out of the bullpen.

The biggest surprise was the Mets carrying Edgin over Josh Smoker. This season, Smoker has struck out 14.7 batters per nine, and he has gotten the Mets out of a few tough jams. Edgin, on the other hand, has struggled this season due in large part to him not fully regaining his velocity after Tommy John surgery. However, despite the surprise, there is some justification for the decision.

First, both Smoker and Edgin are one inning pitchers. Each time Terry Collins has tried to push Smoker past one inning of work, he has allowed a second home run. With them both being one inning pitchers, the Mets most likely sought to use the pitcher who matches up better against the Giants. Given the Giants have many left-handed batters, Edgin seems to be the better choice. This season, lefties are hitting .235/.300/.235 off of Edgin as opposed to .360/.448/.600 off of Smoker.

Overall, the hope is that the Mets don’t have to use Edgin or worry about leaving Smoker off the roster. First and foremost, Blevins is going to be the LOOGY in the big spot, and Robleshas reverse splits. Additionally, the Mets 7-8-9- combination of Salas-Reed-Familia pitch just as well against lefties as they do to righties. In the end, so long as Syndergaard and the back end of the bullpen do their job, as we all expect they will do, the Edgin/Smoker decision will not amount to much.

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