Rafael Montero
Other than Asdrubal Cabrera, who was 3-3 with two walks and an RBI double, everyone involved with the Mets had a hand in this putrid loss. That’s the way it is for a team that is 1-7 with RISP for the first seven innings.
Robert Gsellman cruised through five innings before struggling in the sixth. He loaded the bases with one out. To his credit, he did get Matt Kemp to hit a medium depth fly ball to right center that should’ve been caught.
It wasn’t. It fell between Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce. The conversation probably went like this:
- Granderson: “Jay, that’s yours. I have no arm.”
- Bruce: “Sure, I got it.”
- [Ball Drops]
- Granderson: “I told you it was yours!”
- Bruce: “I know, but in case you haven’t noticed, I suck as a Met.”
By the way, yes, Terry Collins played Bruce over Michael Conforto despite: (1) Bruce being terrible; (2) Conforto playing well the past two nights; and (3) Playing Bruce over Conforto violates the “You hit you play” mantra. And, yes, Collins should’ve pulled Gsellman before it got to this point.
Josh Smoker relieved Gsellman, and he got squeezed on a 2-2 pitch:
Call hurts #Mets
Ball 3 should be strike 3
Top 6 Smoker vs Markakis
10% call same
3.4in from edge pic.twitter.com/T1PNamHcTO— Mets Strike Zone (@MetsUmp) September 21, 2016
He then walked Nick Markakis on the 3-2 pitch giving the Braves a 2-1 lead.
That lead grew to 5-1 when Collins unnecessarily stayed with Jerry Blevins. Dansby Swanson led off the seventh with a single off Fernando Salas. After Julio Teheran failed to bunt him over, Collins went to Blevins to face Ender Inciarte.
Inciarte singled, and then the RIGHT hand hitting Adonis Garcia hit a three run homer. Of course, Collins could’ve stuck with Salas, but no, he went to his second lefty there.
The Braves continued to tee off Blevins. It got so bad Rafael Montero of all people had to bail him out of out the two on two out jam.
Collins’ inactivity proved costly especially after a Mets eighth inning rally that was helped by the Braves pulling Teheran.
Cabrera got it started with a one out walk. Seriously, who else would get things started? After Yoenis Cespedes was hit by a pitch, Granderson hit an RBI double. T.J. Rivera hit a sac fly to make it 5-3. The Braves would bring in the lefty Ian Krol to face Bruce.
It wouldn’t happen because Collins would hit Eric Campbell for Bruce. Campbell actually cane through with a pinch hit RBI single. As Terry was rolling the dice, he then hit Kevin Plawecki for James Loney. After Plawecki reached on an error, Collins rolled a snake eyes with his sending Travis d’Arnaud to the plate. d’Arnaud grounded out to kill the rally.
The Mets had their chance in the ninth off Braves closer Jim Johnson. Cabrera hit a seeing eye two out single to bring up Cespedes. It was the exact situation you want. Johnson then made Cespedes look silly on a 2-2 pitch to end the game.
Back in 1998, a Mike Piazza led Mets team was in prime position for the Wild Card. They were one game up on the Cubs with five home games left in the season. First up was the 97 loss Montreal Expos followed by the clinched a long time ago Atlanta Braves. The Mets wouldn’t win another game.
In the process, the Mets would finish one game behind the Chicago Cubs AND the San Francisco Giants. Behind Steve Trachsel, the Cubs would win the Wild Card in the one game playoff. The Mets would stay at home watching as they couldn’t beat a bad team or the Braves.
That and tonight’s game is a reminder that the Mets have not locked up one of the Wild Card spots.
Simply put, Noah Syndergaard was not good tonight. He only lasted 3.2 innings allowing eight hits and five earned. It didn’t matter that he was throwing his fastball over 100 MPH and his slider was back to 95 MPH. He wasn’t locating, and the Braves were hitting him.
As usual, it was Freddie Freeman who killed the Mets. He homered in the third to make it 3-0. He then effectively knocked Syndergaard out if the game with a two run double in the fourth.
Conversely, the Mets weren’t hitting. The sum of their offense through the first eight innings was a T.J. Rivera two run homer off Braves starter Aaron Blair. This was the same Blair that entered the game 0-6 with an 8.23 ERA and a 1.774 WHIP.
Simply put, the Mets offense laid an egg. Still, the Mets were only down 5-2 after the Rivera homer. The game was within striking distance.
Josh Edgin and Hansel Robles would combine in the seventh to put the game out of reach. Edgin, in his second inning of work, would load the bases. Robles came on in relief, and he allowed a Dansby Swanson two run bloop single to left making it 7-2.
By the way, Swanson is becoming an annoying Brave. He opened the scoring in the second with an RBI single in addition to the aforementioned two RBI single. Overall, he was 3-5 with one run, three RBI, and one stolen base.
The Mets did get something going on the ninth. Michael Conforto led off with a single. Ender Inciarte then misplayed a James Loney line drive single into an RBI double. The Mets had something brewing. It ended when Terry Collins turned to Ty Kelly and Jay Bruce to pinch hit for Kevin Plawecki and Rafael Montero respectively.
Kelly struck out looking and Bruce popped out to right. After a Jose Reyes popped out to left to make the final out, the Mets have given the Giants and Cardinals an opportunity to cut into the Mets narrow lead in the Wild Card race.
Game Notes: Loney was 3-4 with an RBI double. Curtis Granderson was 3-4 with a run. As a team the Mets were 0-7 with runners in scoring position.
After last night’s game, Terry Collins stated the obvious when he said Rafael Montero wouldn’t get another start. The natural follow-up Collins couldn’t quite answer yet was, “Who will replace Montero in the rotation?” Unfortunately, the Mets have few options.
Injured Starters
One of the reasons Montero is in the rotation to begin with is because Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz are injured. While there have been optimistic reports about them getting back on the mound, there are no indications either will be availsble to pitch on Saturday.
Right now, it seems deGrom is the closer of the two, but the Mets only intend to use him in the bullpen for now.
Skip the Fifth Starter’s Spot
With the Mets having an off day on Thursday, they can pitch everyone on normal rest for one turn through the rotation. If the Mets pursue this option, the team wouldn’t need a fifth starter until Wednesday, September 21st against the Braves.
This route accomplished two tasks. First, it allows the Mets to pitch their best (remaining) pitchers thereby giving them the best chance to win. Second, it gives deGrom and Matz a little more time to rejoin the rotation.
Gabriel Ynoa
If you’re judging Gabriel Ynoa by the 5.1 innings he has thrown in the majors, you wouldn’t want him or his 15.19 ERA anywhere near the mound. Worse yet, in Ynoa’s outings, he has been hit hard, and he has had trouble putting batters away.
However, it should be noted those are only 5.1 innings. It should also be noted Ynoa was pitching out of the bullpen in each of these spots, which is a very unfamiliar situation for him.
Ynoa also was on a hot streak before getting called up in September. In his final four starts of the season, he was 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. These are better numbers than what Montero had in AA when he was tabbed the fifth starter.
Logan Verrett
Mets fans have seen enough of Logan Verrett in the rotation this year. In his 12 starts, he was 1-6 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.617 WHIP. These are terrible numbers, BUT they are better than what Montero is giving the Mets right now.
Sean Gilmartin
Unfortunately, the 2016 version of Sean Gilmartin had been nowhere near as good as the 2015 version. Whether it was due to the shoulder injury which put him on the seven day DL or not, the results aren’t there for him.
In 18 starts and one relief appearance in AAA, Gilmartin was 9-7 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. His worst month was August where he was 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP in three starts.
In his 11 appearances for the Mets this year, he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. However, he has been pitching better of late. In his last six appearances, he has allowed only two runs with a 1.17 WHIP.
Bullpenning
With the publication of Brian Kenny’s new book, “Ahead of the Curve” there has been more and more discussion about the plausibility of the concept of bullpenning.
Bullpenning is when a team eschews a starting pitcher, and instead opts to go with their bullpen for all nine innings. With September call-ups, the Mets have a deeper bullpen certainly making this concept a plausible option.
With Fernando Salas, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia set for the last three to four innings, the Mets would only need to account for the first five to six innings of the game.
Now, given the fact that Ynoa, Verrett, and Gilmartin have not been stretched out in a while all three could give two innings each to begin the game. Hansel Robles has also shown the a ability to go multiple innings to either change the look batters see it to step in if one of the aforementioned pitchers falter.
Bullpenning could also be an avenue to start deGrom and Matz while still limiting their innings and pitch count.
As it stands at the moment, there is no obvious solution. With that in mind, the Mets are probably going to need a hybrid approach to replace Montero in the rotation.
This one was obvious to everyone except Terry Collins.
In Rafael Montero‘s last start, he only lasted 4.1 innings against the Reds allowing three runs while walking four. In the start before that it was a minor miracle he allowed no runs against the Marlins despite walking six over five innings. By any measure, Montero had no business starting against the Washington Nationals yesterday.
This would be the Collins’ decision of the game except there is the possibility the choice to start Montero tonight was either a collaborative decision or a decision made by the front office.
Giving Collins the benefit of the doubt here, the decision of the game was not pinch hitting for Montero in the top of the second inning.
At that time, the Mets were only down 2-1. However, they were down 2-1 because Montero issued not one, but two . . . TWO! . . . bases loaded walks. Realistically, the Mets could’ve been trailing by a lot more than one run with the way Montero pitched in a 37 pitch first inning.
Another factor was there was a runner in scoring position with two outs. You know Montero isn’t bringing that run home. Sure, you normally wouldn’t want to go to your bench that early in the game, but there are expanded rosters. You’re not going to run out of pinch hitters with the following available:
- Michael Conforto
- Brandon Nimmo
- Alejandro De Aza
- T.J. Rivera
- Matt Reynolds
- Gavin Cecchini
- Ty Kelly
- Eric Campbell
That gives the Mets one pinch hitter for every inning for the rest of the game. Keep in mind, this list doesn’t include the backup catchers Rene Rivera and Kevin Plawecki.
Collins might’ve said differently in the post game, but the bullpen shouldn’t have been a consideration. Gabriel Ynoa and Sean Gilmartin were fairly rested and capable of pitching multiple innings. Same goes for Hansel Robles. Also, it’s important to note the Mets only needed to find five innings because if it was close, the Mets were going Fernando Salas–Addison Reed–Jeurys Familia to close out the game anyway.
With September call-ups, the Mets had the depth to handle Collins lifting Montero. More importantly, with the Mets amidst the Wild Card race, they can ill-afford to give Montero a second inning because it could cost you the game.
Collins didn’t lift Montero, and he imploded in the second. It was not a result that was all that surprising. It was a result that helped cost the Mets the game. It was another poor managerial decision by Collins.
After sweeping the Reds, and having won 14 of their last 18 games, the Mets have rallied from two games under .500 to get themselves back into the thick of the Wild Card race. In fact, after Wednesday’s games, the Mets are in a virtual tie with the St. Louis Cardinals. Better yet, they’re just a half game back of the Giants for the second Wild Card.
As we hit the homestretch with the Mets having 22 games remaining on the schedule, here is where everyone stands:
San Francisco Giants 74-65
The Giants are in a free-fall. They went from having the most wins in the National League before the All Star Break to having the third worst record in the National League after the break.
The Giants are 4-6 in your last 10, and they are 6-11 over their last 17 games. Even with all that, the Giants have a half-game lead over the Cardinals and Mets for the top Wild Card spot and are five games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.
The main reason why the Giants are struggling right now is their pitching. Madison Bumgarner has gone from dominant in the first half to human in the second half with a 4-4 record and a 3.66 ERA. Johnny Cueto has similarly struggled going 1-4 with a 3.90 ERA in the second half. Keep in mind, these were the only starters the Giants can truly rely upon with Matt Cain never fully came back after his injury problems, Jake Peavy missing most of the year with injuries, and Jeff Samardzjia not living up to his free agent contract.
Worse yet, when the Giants get a late lead, it isn’t safe. Santiago Castilla had blown three saves in the second half. Castilla is struggling to the point that Bruce Bochy removed him from the game against the Rockies rather than letting him make matters worse.
The Giants currently have 23 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 3 at Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Padres (57-82)
- 4 vs. Cardinals (73-65)
- 3 at Dodgers (79-60)
- 4 at Padres (57-82)
- 3 vs. Rockies (67-72)
- 3 vs. Dodgers (79-60)
The Giants remaining opponents combined winning percentage is .481. The biggest benefit to their schedule are the 10 games remaining against the Diamondbacks and Padres as the Giants have a combined 19-9 record against them.
Fangraphs gives the Giants a 66.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 70.7% chance of making the postseaon.
St. Louis Cardinals 73-65
Injuries are starting to catch up to the Cardinals who are 5-5 over their last 10. Since Aledmys Diaz went on the disabled list with a broken thumb, the Cardinals are effectively a .500 team going 17-16.
Other notable injuries are Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, and Trevor Rosenthal. While the Cardinals are keeping their heads above water, they may need to play better than .500 ball to return to the postseason.
The Cardinals currently have 24 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 4 vs. Brewers (62-77)
- 3 vs. Cubs (89-50)
- 4 at Giants (74-65)
- 3 at Rockies (67-72)
- 3 at Cubs (89-50)
- 4 vs. Reds (57-81)
- 3 vs. Pirates (68-69)
The combined winning percentage of the remaining teams is .502. Of the Cardinals remaining 24 games, 14 of them are at home where they are 30-37 on the season.
Fangraphs gives the Cardinals a 57.4% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 58.6% chance of making the postseason.
Washington Nationals 81-57
If seven with 17 remaining isn’t an insurmountable hurdle then 8.5 with 22 remaining shouldn’t be either. That goes double with Stephen Strasburg leaving his first start from the disabled list with an apparent injury. With that said, the Nationals are hot winning seven of their last 10, and with their remaining schedule, it’s going to take a miracle for the Mets to win the division. Here are the Nationals remaining games:
- 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
- 3 vs. Mets (74-66)
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Pirates (68-69)
- 4 vs Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Marlins (69-71)
The Nationals remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .461. Of the Nationals remaining 24 games, they have 16 against National League East teams, and so far, the Nationals are 42-18 against the National League East. Fangraphs gives the Nationals a 99.7% chance of winning the division, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 100% chance of making the postseason.
New York Mets 74-66
When the dust settled last night, the Mets found themselves in a virutal tie with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and a half game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card spot. It should be noted the Mets trail both the Cardinals and the Giants by one game in the loss column.
The Mets are at this point with question marks of their own. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera are each effectively playing on one leg. Neil Walker is out for the season joining David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey. With Rafael Montero‘s struggles, Gabriel Ynoa having difficulty getting major league hitters out, and Logan Verrett not living up to the challenge, the Mets have no real fifth starter at the moment. While Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have stepped up, they are not on par with Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz, neither of whom is definitive to return this season. With all that said, the Mets have hope because they have the weakest schedule out of any of the aforementioned Wild Card competitors:
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Nationals (82-57)
- 3 vs. Twins (52-88)
- 3 vs. Braves (54-86)
- 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Phillies (62-77)
The combined winning percentage of the Mets remaining opponents is .457, which is the lowest opponent’s winning percentage of any of the aforementioned teams the Mets are still chasing.
Fangraphs give the Mets a 64.5% chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 67.2% chance of making the postseason.
Overall, the Mets schedule is filled with a lot of winnable games. If the Mets take care of business, they should be returning to the postseason for the second straight season.
The bad news was that Noah Syndergaard struggled. It was to be expected from the scheduled times the Mets have had the past four games. The good news is that the aforementioned issues didn’t matter because the Mets were playing the Reds yet again.
Syndergaard needed 95 pitches just to get through five innings. He didn’t have one 1-2-3 inning. He tied a career high by issuing four walks. Still, he was able to keep the Reds at bay because he struck out seven batters, and because, well, you’ll never believe it – there were three base runners nailed on the basepaths.
Rene Rivera would nail two base runners alone in the second inning. First, it was Brandon Phillips who was thrown out trying to steal second after leading off the inning with a single. Scott Schebler would then walk, and Rivera would throw him out when he tried to steal second.
As if that wasn’t good enough, something more impressive happened. There were runners on first and third after consecutive singles from Jose Peraza and Eugenio Suarez. Mayhem would ensure, probably as the result of the Reds not knowing how to respond to Syndergaard trying to hold on a base runner. Syndergaard caught Suarez napping on a throw over to first. Suarez broke to second to get caught in a run down. As this happened, Peraza broke for home. Asdrubal Cabrera noticed, and he threw home to nail him to get Syndergaard out of another jam.
Due in part to that, Syndergaard’s strikeouts, and the Reds suddenly morphing into the Mets with runners in scoring position, Syndergaard pitched five scoreless and got the win because of the home run.
Right out of the gate, Jose Reyes took the first pitch of the game from Anthony DeSclafani, and he deposited it into the right field stands:
Well, that escalated quickly. https://t.co/JPNMBijOeL #LGM pic.twitter.com/m9X3J4L9m5
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 7, 2016
Reyes would account for the next run in the third when he scored a proverbial “Reyes Run.” After Syndergaard led off the inning with a single, Reyes busted it out of the box to avoid the double play. It seemed as if the Reds were going to get out of the inning as DeSclafani got Yoenis Cespedes to hit a grounder to short. However, Peraza missed it allowing Reyes from first to third. With Curtis Granderson at the plate, DeSclafani unleashed a wild pitch allowing Reyes to score.
It was part of a terrific game from Reyes who was 2-5 with two runs, an RBI, and a homer. It was the rare terrific game for Reyes this year from the left-hand side of the plate. Before today, Reyes was hitting .244/.283/.353 as a left-handed batter. While it is a small sample size, it should be pointed out Reyes hit .275/.309/.374 as a left-handed batter last year, and .289/.328/.404 the year before that. While he gets reviled, we could be seeing the positive effects of Reyes working with Kevin Long.
The other run was the result of the resurgent Curtis Granderson:
.@cgrand3 hot at the dish. He rips his 25th home run of the season. #LGM https://t.co/Iz5wTy5ejB pic.twitter.com/IDEtB4GljZ
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 7, 2016
Granderson is suddenly scorching at the plate after having a poor July and a dreadful August. Over Granderson’s last four games, he has three homers and seven RBI. Given Terry Collins propensity to play him and bench Michael Conforto at all costs, the Mets are going to need more of the same from him.
Wilmer Flores would blow the game open in the eighth hitting a two run pinch hit home run off Reds reliever Wandy Peralta. For some reason or other, Reds manager Bryan Price let the left-hander actually face Flores with the game still in doubt. It was yet another sign we have seen from a Reds team that has seemingly quit on the season.
Flores’ pinch hit home run was the Mets 12th of the season, which ties the Mets single season mark set in 1983.
In addition to the Mets hitting a bunch of homers, a couple of struggling Mets relievers got some redemption. Hansel Robles would pitch a scoreless 1.2 innings. Robles went into the second inning of work because Collins emptied his bullpen yesterday, and because Robles clearly hasn’t gotten enough work all season. Jerry Blevins then relieved Robles with a runner on and two out in the seventh to face Joey Votto. Blevins snapped out of a recent funk a bit in striking out Votto.
Of course, no game would be complete without a completely baffling Collins’ managerial decision. Yesterday, after Rafael Montero couldn’t make it through five, Collins had tabbed Gabriel Ynoa to get the last out of the fifth inning after Votto’s sacrifice fly off Josh Edgin. As insane as it was to bring a minor league starter and use him for a third of an inning in a game the Mets needed a long reliever, it was even crazier to use that guy for the second game in a row.
With the Mets not knowing when Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz will be able to pitch next, and Montero showing he shouldn’t start another game, Ynoa was most likely the guy you would tab for the next start. Instead, Collins chose him to pitch today even with Sean Gilmartin and Logan Verrett fully rested. It should come as a surprise to no one what ensued.
Ynoa would immediately load the bases with no outs forcing Collins to go to Addison Reed, who is not good with inherited base runners. Reed would strike out Tyler Holt, and then things would get interesting. Tucker Barnhart would hit an RBI single, and the bases would remain loaded. After a Ramon Cabrera ground-out, with Reyes getting the force out at home, Peraza would hit a two run double over Cespedes’ head. Reed would strike out Eugenio Suarez to get out of the jam. The Mets would keep the lead even if it was shaved down to 5-3.
The Mets added an insurance run in the eighth as Cabrera and Cespedes hit back-to-back doubles of Reds reliever Tony Cingrani. Again, you have to question what the Reds were thinking with them pitching to Cespedes with an open base.
With the 6-3 lead, it was a save situation leading Collins to bring in Jeurys Familia, and he would record his 47th save of the season. It would also be the 60th game he finished this season. Reed and Familia have now pitched four times in the last five games. But hey, it was a good idea to bring in a non-reliever in Ynoa for the second straight day.
Fortunately, the Mets pulled out the win, and they are now eight games over .500, and they are a half game out of a Wild Card spot (two in the loss column). Pending what happens tonight, the Mets could find themselves in a virtual tie with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Game Notes: Gavin Cecchini didn’t play again today. Alejandro De Aza started in center with Jay Bruce and Conforto sitting. James Loney continues to hit better of late going 2-3 on the day.
Pennant Race: Everyone who matters plays later.
The Mets just about blew this game in every way, shape, and form. And yet, Yoenis Cespedes wouldn’t let them lose.
Rafael Montero was handed a 2-0 lead as a result of Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes solo home runs off Brandon Finnegan. However, Montero would give it back as his high wire act came crashing down to Earth.
In the third, Montero issued a one out walk to Zack Cozart. Montero then paid no attention to him, so Cozart stole second. It was your classic Travis d’Arnaud didn’t throw out the runner who got a massive jump situation. After that, Montero would break an 0-27 streak opposing batters had against Mets pitching with runners in scoring position when Adam Duvall crushed a game tying two run homer.
The Reds would then go ahead in the fifth with Montero still struggling. He allowed a lead off triple to Hernan Irabarren. He would then issue a one out walk to Cozart. At that point, through 4.1 innings where Montero allowed three hits and four walks, Terry Collins had seen enough. He went to the bullpen to get a left-handed to pitch to Joey Votto to get the biggest out in the game.
Collins could’ve gone with Jerry Blevins, who has been the Mets best lefty out if the pen. He could’ve gone with Josh Smoker who is a strikeout machine. No, Collins went with his worst possible option with Josh Edgin, who still has not regained his velocity.
Votto would lift a fly ball to right. Jay Bruce, the man with the highly touted throwing arm, made a weak and offline throw to home plate allowing Irabarren to score giving the Reds a 3-2 lead.
It seemed it would stay that way after a brutal top of the sixth. Bruce led off with a single, and he moved to second on a brutal Duvall fielding error. First, d’Arnaud couldn’t get him home as he flinched on a pitch that was clearly a strike. After a Granderson hit by pitch, Kelly Johnson, pinch hitting for Matt Reynolds, just beat out the relay throw to avoid the 3-6-3 double play. Michael Conforto, pinch hitting for Ynoa, struck out looking on a ball that looked off the plate. Apparently, it was too close to take.
In the seventh, Cespedes would start to take over. Asdrubal Cabrera summoned all he could with his injured knee to leg out an infield single to get on in front of Cespedes. Cespedes then did his thing:
The ball just cleared the center field wall to give the Mets a 4-3 lead.
In the eighth, Cespedes wouldn’t let the Reds get something going. Mets killer Brandon Phillips lined a ball to the left field wall off Addison Reed. Cespedes fielded the ball cleanly as it ricocheted off the wall, turned, and delivered a perfect strike to Johnson.
From there, Alejandro De Aza hit a pinch hit homer, the Mets 11th of the season, to give the Mets a 5-3 lead. That two run cushion was more than enough for Jeurys Familia who recorded his 46th save of the year.
This game was another example of how important Cespedes is to the Mets, and how much they need him healthy down the stretch.
Game Notes: Collins made six pitching changes with the expanded rosters. Gavin Cecchini, T.J. Rivera, Eric Campbell, and Brandon Nimmo joined the team today, but would not enter the game.
The Mets who were long said to have organizational pitching depth are once again at the point where they are pitching Rafael Montero in a pennant race. Worse yet, the Mets are pitching Montero in this spot because Jon Niese cannot make the start because he had knee surgery. With that said, it’s Montero who his making the start in place of the injured Jacob deGrom.
Keep in mind this is the same Montero who the Mets were apparently done with Montero this season.
The Mets were disgusted with him last year because they wanted him to pitch because there was a fundamental disagreement between him and the team regarding whether his shoulder was injured enough to pitch. After pitching horribly in his first Spring Training start, he was one of the first players sent down to minor league Spring Training. The Mets called him up briefly in April to help a struggling bullpen, but Collins almost refused to pitch him. After being put on the shelf for a week, he struggled. Montero then struggled in AAA when he was sent back down leading to his demotion to AA. With important prospects like Amed Rosario needing to be added to the 40 man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, it appeared Montero’s days in the Mets organization were coming to an end.
Now, with a rash of injuries, the Mets turn again to Montero to make a critical start during a pennant race. Once again, the Mets hope Montero can be the pitcher they always thought he would be.
In Montero’s first start of the season, he pitched five shutout innings against a Marlins team that was ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card standings. In those five shutout innings, he gave the Mets a chance to at least outlast Jose Fernandez and get into the Marlins bullpen to eke out a victory. On the glass half-empty side, you see a pitcher who allowed six walks and was constantly on the brink of disaster. He was a pitcher who needed 100 pitches to get through those five innings helping tax the Mets bullpen. On the glass half-full side, you see a pitcher who, despite getting squeezed by the home plate umpire, battled his way and kept his team in the game. You finally saw Montero persevere.
Tonight, we’re going to find out once again if the glass is half-empty or half-full. Montero is pitching against a bad Reds team in a hitter’s ballpark. The glass half-full Montero beats a team that he needs to beat. The glass half-empty Montero struggles in a hitter’s park. So far, the glass has been half-empty with Montero, but there is still time to change that.
Sometimes all you need is a chance.
We saw it in Jacob deGrom in 2014. The 26 year old got a chance due to injuries, and the most of it. He not only showed the Mets he was a better pitcher than then well regarded prospect Rafael Montero, he also showed he was an important part of the Mets rotation going forward. From there, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year award, was named an All Star, and pitched the opener of the 2015 postseason. This all happened because he got a chance.
Seth Lugo is getting his chance, and like deGrom, he is making the most of it.
Initially, Lugo was called up to pitch out of the bullpen. He immediately made an impression with his awesome curveball:
In a Mets organization that places such emphasis on the slider and falls in love with fastballs that go over 95+ MPH, you could somewhat understand why Lugo wasn’t more highly regarded. You can really understand it when you consider he had a 6.50 ERA in AAA. Still, Lugo had a good repertoire including that curveball.
According to Statcast, Lugo’s curveball has a higher spin rate than anyone else’s in baseball. Yes, even Clayton Kershaw. The increased spin creates two effects: (1) it created downward movement inducing ground balls; and (2) it induces a number if swings and misses. Lugo’s curveball is a tremendous pitch, and it could very well have been the best pitch in a of the Mets minor league system.
Lugo likes to evenly mix all of his pitches. Even so, the curve is the money pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo generates the highest percentage of his strikeouts on the pitch. Furthermore, the pitch generates the lowest batting average against than any of his other pitches. Perhaps the reason why it’s so effective, other than its spin rate, is the fact that he’s very selective with the pitch. Other than his change, the curveball is the pitch Lugo throws the least often.
This means he mostly relies on his 93 MPH sinker and his 94 MPH fastball. What is impressive about his fastball is his ability to dial it up over 96 MPH in pressure spots. Lugo also has an 88 MPH slider which has been an effective pitch for him. If Warthen is able to help Lugo improve his slider like he has with everyone else on the staff, Lugo’s ceiling will go into the next stratosphere.
Again, the interesting thing breaking down Lugo’s pitches is you’re breaking down the pitches of a pitcher who had the stuff to be in a big league rotation. Prior to this season, there may not have been many who believed that. As Lugo was struggling in AAA, there were probably even fewer. And yet, here he is. He’s not just a major league pitcher, but he’s also an important piece of a rotation that may well be on its way to the postseason.
And all Lugo needed to show us all this was possible was a chance. He got it, and like deGrom, he has made the most of it.