Peter Alonso
For all the talk about every game counts, Jason Vargas entered the season as the unchallenged fifth starter. Somehow, he’s failed to clear the subterranean bar set for him this season with tonight being his worst performance.
Vargas lasted just one-third of an inning allowing four earned on two hits and three walks. Now, you may want to say two of those runs were scored after he left the game, but that would be wrong considering he needed 36 pitches to get just one out.
This put the game in Corey Oswalt‘s hands to salvage.
While Oswalt did get out of the inning, the Braves got to him as well scoring four runs off him in the second. To be fair to Oswalt, just like all of last year, the Mets once again put him in a position to fail.
Oswalt was called up earlier in the week to be prepared to make a relief appearance on just three days rest. Then, after the team didn’t pitch him, they had him trying to stay sharp on what was now extended rest. Finally, they asked a starter to hurry up and loosen up to enter a game with runners in scoring position. This is not how you handle or develop pitchers.
Partially because of the Mets being stubborn and plain stupid in trusting Vargas as the fifth starter and partially due to their mishandling of Oswalt, they’d lost what was a winnable game.
Like Vargas, Braves starter Sean Newcomb was bad. After escaping the first inning due to a questionable base running decision by Pete Alonso, he was bad and would not escape the second.
Travis d’Arnaud got the rally started with his first hit since coming off the IL. He and Keon Broxton would score on a Juan Lagares RBI double. Oswalt would help himself and tie the score with a sacrifice fly.
After the aforementioned bad top of the third for Oswalt, the Mets were chasing the Braves all night. The key difference between the Mets and Braves was while the Mets messed around with Oswalt, the Braves had Touki Touissaint. Touissaint was very good for the Braves stabilizing the game and saving their bullpen.
This meant even though Chad Sabodka was shaky in the final two innings, the Braves still had plenty of cushion in what would become an 11-7 Braves.
As if this were not enough, Ron Darling announced he needs to take a leave of absence to have surgery to remove a mass in his chest. More than anything that happened on the field, this was the absolute worst development of the day. Thoughts and prayers go to Darling for a speedy recovery.
Game Notes: Oswalt became the first Mets pitcher since John Maine in 2007 to have a sacrifice fly and a sacrifice bunt. Mickey Callaway was ejected in the first for arguing balls and strikes.
Yesterday, Dominic Smith received his second start of the season, and much like the rest of the season, he hit. In five plate appearances, he was 2-for-4 with a run and a walk.
With that performance, Smith is now hitting .438/.526/.500. Seeing those results, his age, and his previously being considered among the Top 100 prospects in the game, you’d believe the Mets would be doing everything they could do to get him into the lineup.
The problem is Smith plays first base, a position now occupied by Pete Alonso and with the way Alonso is playing, there’s no way you’re having him sit to create more playing time for anyone else on this roster.
Now, it should be noted Smith played left field last year. He wasn’t not good there at all. In 90.0 MLB innings, he had a -5 DRS and a -3.1 UZR. Part of the reason why was his poor speed.
Baseball Savant had Smith’s sprint speed at 26.3 ft/second. Coincidentally, that was the same foot speed as Rhys Hoskins, another first baseman poorly masquerading as a left fielder. With respect to Hoskins, the Phillies moving Carlos Santana was partially motivated by their wanting to get Hoskins out of left.
Absent any improvements, you’d be hard pressed to find a reason why Smith would post better numbers than Hoskins -24 DRS and -11.3 UZR in left. This may have been one of the reasons why the Mets abandoned the experiment heading into this season. The question now is whether the Mets should revisit this decision.
Seeing Smith this year, he’s been in better shape, and he’s been quicker than in years past. Part of that is his getting better sleep with his sleep apnea mask. Between his better conditioning, his having experience in left, and with his now hitting, the Mets have plenty of reasons to believe Smith could now succeed in left.
In fact, as Matt Ehalt of Yahoo reports, both Smith and his agent have approached the Mets about playing left field. The Mets outright rejected the idea. The end result is Smith has no real avenue to play.
While you understand why the Mets wouldn’t want to revisit the idea, it may be short-sighted. The team is already poor defensively in left with Jeff McNeil, and they have been poor defensively at third when J.D. Davis plays there. If you put McNeil at third, where he is better suited, and Smith in left, the Mets are still weak in left, but overall, they’re better defensively.
They would also be better offensively, especially with the way Smith is hitting.
Even if the Mets don’t want Smith in left everyday, there’s value in just getting him on the field more frequently. That value is an even better offense than what we have already seen. It’s also more versatility for a manager who seems intent on setting the major league record for double switches.
Mostly, this is about finding a way to maximize the talent on the Mets roster. Smith in left field could help them accomplish that.
This was certainly a different Mets lineup. It was a mixture of overreacting to slow starts (Brandon Nimmo hitting eighth) and getting guys some rest (Dominic Smith over Pete Alonso) with the Mets in the midst of a playing 13 games over 14 days in four different cities.
Starting with a Nimmo homer in the top of the second, it quickly appeared Mickey Callaway made the right moves:
Love to see that smile. Love to see that result. ??? pic.twitter.com/cdZ5nlN0gZ
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 13, 2019
In the fourth, the Mets effectively put this game away. After Keon Broxton had a leadoff walk, Nimmo was bunting for don’t reason. Fortunately, he reached. Soon, the doubles started coming.
Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, and Michael Conforto‘s doubles off Kyle Wright increased the Mets lead to 6-1. Zack Wheeler and the Mets bullpen made sure this game was never in doubt.
Wheeler was getting his fastball up to triple digits on multiple occasions.
I’d say Zack Wheeler is a little amped up to pitch close to home. He hit 100 four times and topped out at 101 in the first inning.
Also threw a slider at 95.4 mph.
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) April 12, 2019
Over six innings, Wheeler allowed two earned on six hits and three walks with eight strikeouts. So much for his slow start.
After Wheeler, Justin Wilson and Seth Lugo combined to shut down the Braves over the final three innings to make this as easy a win as you’ve seen the Mets have this season. It’s also a sign the Mets might be just that much better than these Braves.
Game Notes: Callaway indicated with the left-handed Sean Newcomb starting tomorrow, Cano would have his first day off with Luis Guillorme getting the start. Callaway also hinted there would be more changes.
Before the season, it was expected the National League East would be extraordinarily tight, and so far it has proven to be true. Entering this series, the Mets, Braves, and Phillies had a 7-4 record, and the Nationals were 6-5.
Entering the season, the Mets were looking for something to separate themselves from the pack. One of those things is the possibility Steven Matz and/or Amed Rosario could break out. Tonight, against the Braves, we got a glimpse as to what that might look like.
In Matz’s last start, he appeared to figure something out. Aside from a pair of very hard hit balls, Matz carried that success into tonight.
Now, the Johan Camargo homer was going to be a homer regardless. However, you do expect Juan Lagares to bail him out on that Ronald Acuna, Jr. triple.
Solid start to the evening.#ChopOn pic.twitter.com/oOEjnMU8yD
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) April 11, 2019
That speaks to Lagares’ insane ability out there more than it does how catchable that ball was. Seriously, there are maybe three center fielders who could even be in position to make that play.
Those were but two of the four hits Matz allowed as he shut down the Braves. At one point, he would retire 13 in a row. Overall, he would pitch six innings allowing just those two runs while walking one and striking out eight.
He’d be in line for the win because Rosario was great tonight.
First, there was the no doubter three run homer off Kevin Gausman in the second inning:
.@Amed_Rosario pulled out the driver for this one. ? #Crushed pic.twitter.com/eZxbDnfICY
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 11, 2019
Rosario came up in the sixth with runners on the corners and two outs, and the Braves went to the bullpen to bring in Wes Parsons. Rosario would hit an opposite field RBI single to increase the Mets lead to 4-2.
Rosario accounted for the first four Mets runs. The next two came courtesy of a monster Pete Alonso homer:
Unmatched power. ? #Crushed pic.twitter.com/aAfTpX9zQK
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 12, 2019
Alonso 118.3
Cespedes 115.1 x2
Conforto 114.9 x2
Duda 114.8— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) April 12, 2019
For a moment, that 6-2 lead didn’t look like it’d be enough. All season long, the Mets bullpen has been suspect, and Robert Gsellman has been one of those frustrating relievers.
He’d load the bases with one out, and against expectations, Gsellman would get out of the jam. First, he’d strike out Ozzie Albies, and then he’d get Josh Donaldson to ground out to get out of the jam.
Luis Avilan wasn’t as lucky. After retiring Freddie Freeman to start the eighth, Acuna hit a bomb to make it 6-3. The Braves pinch hitting Charlie Culberson, the Mets went to Jeurys Familia for the final two outs of the inning.
Edwin Diaz then came on and recorded his fifth save in as many chances for the Mets. Although, it should be mentioned it wasn’t easy with Freeman coming up as the tying run (he struck out). This is definitely a Mets thing.
With the win, the Mets are ahead of the Braves in the standings for at least a day, and on this day, the difference makers were Matz and Rosario.
Game Notes: Justin Wilson hasn’t pitched since April 6th as he has been sick. Keon Broxton pinch ran for Alonso in the ninth and stole second.
The Mets finished their first homestand of the season going 2-3, and now they are embark on a brutal road trip taking them through Atlanta, Philadelphia, and St. Louis. Here are some observations before the Mets set off for that trip:
- Jacob deGrom just didn’t have it. It was bound to happen, but it was still startling to see.
- Anyone who even suggests deGrom’s struggles were related to Travis d’Arnaud behind the plate simply doesn’t know anything about baseball. It wasn’t d’Arnaud who caused the chilly weather, nor was it the weather which caused deGrom to miss his pitches by a foot.
- Baseball is funny sometimes. After thorough research shows Citi Field suppresses exit velocities, the ball was flying out of Citi Field. Of course, when you have power hitters like Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto that will happen anyway.
- In one series, Mitch Garver went from a nameless guy to the second coming of Mike Piazza.
- Jason Vargas was terrible, and it is simply inexcusable he was not so much as challenged for the fifth starter spot.
- The Mets have gotten away with calling up Alonso saying every game matters while carrying Vargas as the fifth starter and having Tim Peterson in the bullpen. Why do fans just let the Mets get away with pushing narratives like this?
- The booing of Brandon Nimmo and d’Arnaud was embarrassing. Mets fans should be better than that.
- And just like that, in his last three games, Nimmo is 4-for-10, with two doubles, a homer, three RBI, a walk, and a HBP.
- What the Mets did to Corey Oswalt is inexcusable. He effectively lost a year getting jerked around by the team, and the first chance this new regime gets, they call him up on three days rest to sit in the bullpen.
- Oswalt should be making Vargas’ start this Saturday, and if he doesn’t the Mets cannot pitch Oswalt until then because they may need him to piggyback that start.
- These two games were miserable creating difficult pitching situations. It led to deGrom’s struggles, and it likely led to Jeurys Familia‘s, but that’s now two bad outings from him. Too soon to overreact, but not too soon to take notice.
- After J.D. Davis‘ two home run game, he’s back to being Davis. He his 42.9% of his balls on the ground, and he has hit 45.8% on the ground this year. His inability to make a play at third led to Familia getting in trouble, and he almost botched a double play only to be saved by Luis Guillorme making an amazing turn.
- With Todd Frazier getting a rehab start at SS, it would seem Guillorme will be the odd man out, which is a shame because he’s doing everything he could do to stay. It’s at the point where he’s having to wear batting gloves because he has blisters from all his extra batting practice. He’s also been really good in the field.
- When you have players fighting this hard to stay in the majors, you will get the best results not just from them, but also from the players they are pushing. We are seeing some of that with this team.
- Robinson Cano has a knack for the moment with two big home runs already and a walk yesterday. That said, his overall body of work has not been good. He may be a slow starter, but he has never been this slow. It’s something worth monitoring with his age, PED suspension, and the Mets history on this front (Roberto Alomar).
- Mets are going to regret waking up the Nationals. They went from a team in trouble to a team who took consecutive road series from the red hot Mets and Phillies.
- There may be some holes and warning signs with Alonso here and there, including his having difficulty on two grounders this series, but pointing them out would be being a killjoy. So far, Alonso has been great, and the only things people should point out is how great he has been.
- We should not care what his final stat line said. Noah Syndergaard was dominant yesterday, and when you consider how everyone else pitched, he looked all the more so. Really, if not for some poor defense, he gets through the eighth unscathed.
- Good for Jay Bruce hitting seven homers so far this season and helping the Mariners to a 12-2 start. He gave the Mets everything he had, and it was not his fault it was a poor fit.
- In waht was promised to be a tight NL East, we have the Mets, Braves, and Phillies tied atop the division with a 7-4 record with the Nationals right behind them at 6-5.
Through the first four innings, the Mets could not buy a hit against Jake Odorizzi. Then after a Jeff McNeil one out single in the fifth, the Twins could not get a batter out.
- Amed Rosario – BB
- J.D. Davis – BB
- Noah Syndergaard– BB
- Brandon Nimmo – HBP
- Pete Alonso – BB
- Robinson Cano – BB
- Michael Conforto – BB
- Wilson Ramos – 1B
The Twins went through three pitchers, and they allowed six runs on two hits. It could have been worse for them if not fog McNeil having the TOOBLAN of TOOBLANs.
Odorizzi threw a pitch to the backstop while Syndergaard was at the plate. With it being a fastball, it sprung right back to Mitch Garver. With Garver getting to it quickly, McNeil froze directly between third and home. He stood there as Garver got it to Odorizzi making it easy for the Twins to get the out when McNeil opted to go back to third.
Fortunately, with the Twins being incapable of throwing a strike, the rally would not die there.
That five run lead was more than enough for Syndergaard, who was dominant until the top of eighth. By that time, the Mets were already going to their bench with Keon Broxton and Luis Guillorme entering into the game in the seventh as pinch runners. Both would score in a three run inning giving the Mets a 9-1 lead.
Syndergaard’s final line would not prove to be as impressive as his outing. With the Twins starting the eighth with five straight hits off him and Jeurys Familia, he would allow four runs on five hits with no walks and seven strikeouts in seven plus innings.
That eighth inning was getting out of hand with Familia loading the bases before getting a ground ball from Willians Astudillo. Even with the Davis bobble, the Mets were able to turn two because of Guillorme’s lightning quick turn at second.
With Guillorme helping limit the damage, the Mets escaped the top of the eighth with a 9-5 lead.
That doesn’t mean the Mets bullpen was out of trouble. In the ninth, Edwin Diaz allowed his first run as a Met when Garver homered off of him. Diaz would then get out of the inning securing the Mets 9-6 win.
The Mets ended their first homestead of the season 2-3, and they now head on a tough road trip taking them through Atlanta, Philadelphia, and St. Louis. At least they’re starting that trip coming off a win.
Game Notes: Alonso had his first hitless start, but he still reached base with two walks.
This was supposed to be Jason Vargas‘ start, but he’s so terrible the Mets opted to skip his start. The game was supposed to start a half hour earlier than it did, but the wet weather pushed it back a half hour. Really, there was every indication things were not going to go well.
Still, you couldn’t quite be prepared for what happened to Jacob deGrom. To put it in perspective, he had as many strikeouts as homers allowed.
The first homer was a solo shot by Mitch Garver in the second. Considering Garver entered the game with seven career homers and a .405 SLG, his homer to dead center should’ve been a sign.
After that came what by deGrom’s standards was a disastrous third. Jorge Polanco tripled and scored on a wild pitch. Eddie Rosario hit a two run homer, and Garver hit a homer in as many innings.
When all was said and done, deGrom allowed four runs in the third. It was the first time he allowed four runs in a game since April 10th last year. His allowing the four runs snapped his MLB record starts allowing three runs or fewer and leaves him tied with Bob Gibson for most consecutive quality starts.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, deGrom went out and got touched up for another run in the fourth.
Whether it was the weather, delay, or something else, deGrom really didn’t have it. He was missing his spots by a healthy margin. He didn’t have his velocity, and he didn’t have the movement on his breaking pitches.
For a moment, it looked like the Mets might actually bail him out as the ball was flying out of Citi Field.
.@You_Found_Nimmo – ?@mconforto8 – absolute ? pic.twitter.com/4FYtEqcWg3
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 10, 2019
Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto homered off Twins starter Kyle Gibson in the third. That combined with an Amed Rosario RBI double in the second, it was 5-3.
In the fifth, the Mets really had their shot. After loading the bases with two outs, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli went to his bullpen. Trevor Hildenberger would get Jeff McNeil to fly out to end that threat.
From there, the Mets were just playing catch-up.
Seth Lugo, who was in this game for some reason, allowed a homer to Jonathan Schoop in what was Lugo’s second inning of work. Perhaps Mickey Callaway felt Lugo’s arm was feeling too good lately.
Like Conforto, Pete Alonso homered in his third straight game. That seventh inning homer pulled the Mets to within 7-4.
Unfortunately, Alonso gave that run right back with an error in the eighth. With Byron Buxton on second after a leadoff double against Robert Gsellman, Alonso allowed a Edhire Adrianza grounder go right through his legs.
Sure, Alonso shouldn’t have been trying to backhand it, but we shouldn’t overstate one misplay in a lost game, especially when this was Alonso’s first error.
After that error, Rosario hit his second homer of the game expanding the Twins lead from an10-4.game
Vargas would finally pitch in the ninth, and he was greeted by a Rosario double, Garver single, Jason Castro single, and Schoop homer before he recorded an out. And just like that, a 10-4 game became 14-4.
Things got a little interesting in the ninth with Alonso hitting his second homer and the Mets plating four, but it was still 14-8 when all was said and done.
That’s basically how this miserable game went. It’s too soon to react to this, but the Mets have now lost three of four at home.
Game Notes: Alonso is the first Mets rookie to homer in three straight games since Benny Agbayani. Agbayani did that twice in 1999. Travis d’Arnaud made strong throws behind the plate throwing out one of the two attempted base stealers.
After coming in red-hot after going 5-1 on the road to open the season, the Mets had their first series at home, and while they returned to Citi Field, their momentum did not. While it is waaaaaaay to soon to look at these things, the Mets are now 0.5 games back of the Phillies. Here are some observations from the Mets home opening series:
- Noah Syndergaard seems to be a spokesman of sorts for this team airing their grievances publicly. Look it anyone is going to be the bad guy, Syndergaard is well suited for it because: (1) the fans are going to love him regardless; and (2) he seems to have the do not care what you think personality to make it work.
- Not only did MLB mishandle this by having the Mets play a night game, but they also had a drug test after the game. Considering there were only 7,486 at that game, I cannot imagine attendance was the reason for the later start time.
- If the rumors were true, the Mets are absolutely idiots for starting that game at 1:00 P.M. instead of 4:00 P.M. Those three extra hours matter, especially when a player like Robinson Cano has completely forgotten how to transverse New York after signing with the Mariners after the 2013 season.
- The Nationals came into this series under .500 with an already beleaguered Dave Martinez, a more beleaguered bullpen, and arguably their best player, Trea Turner, on the disabled list. This was a very wounded team who was primed to be knocked down a peg or two and possibly sent into turmoil. It may still be just April, but the Mets missed a big opportunity here.
- The two home run game from J.D. Davis was great to see as was his reaching base safely five consecutive times. However, we are going to need to see a lot more of that before we believe he has finally figured things out.
- As we saw from Davis’ two home run game, April is the time for overreaction, and we are seeing that with Zack Wheeler‘s tough start. One thing to keep in mind here is Wheeler has always gotten better as the season progresses. For example, his career April ERA is 4.95, and his career August ERA is 2.30. Lets give this a month or two before we decided last year’s second half was a blip.
- It seems like Steven Matz figured something out in the bottom of the second against the Nationals. If so, watch out, he’s going to have a breakout season.
- The Mets have gone from Jason Vargas not needing any competition during Spring Training to only trusting him for five innings in a hitter’s park against the worst team in the National League to skipping his start. It’s not even the middle of April, and the Mets have completely bungled their fifth starter situation.
- Perhaps this is an overreaction, but Robert Gsellman has not proven to be that late inning relief ace the Mets imagined him to be. With the Vargas situation, perhaps the Mets should consider sending him down to Syracuse to lengthen him out to rejoin the rotation while making Vargas the long man in the bullpen.
- Even with Jeurys Familia‘s blow-up where he allowed his first homer at Citi Field since Conor Gillaspie, and he allowed two homers in an appearance for the first time in his career, he’s been fine.
- While there has been justifiable hand-wringing over just how poorly this bullpen has been performing, we are seeing Justin Wilson-Familia-Edwin Diaz turn into a formidable 7-8-9 combination.
- Thankfully, Seth Lugo was back to himself Sunday throwing 96 MPH and striking out the side. Overall, he’s very tempting to use, but Mickey Callaway has to be much more judicious in his usage of him.
- With the Mets being a starter short and one to two arms short in the bullpen, just a subtle reminder Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are still free agents. And for a GM who traded away Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista, Ross Adolph, Luis Santana, Scott Manea, Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, and Felix Valerio, we do not need to hear about giving up a draft pick.
- Michael Conforto looks like a real MVP candidate.
- Brandon Nimmo is going to be fine. Whether it was an injury or something else, he will get back to being Nimmo. We saw that with his double yesterday.
- For all of his prodigious power, and how he already looks like a veteran out there, the one thing which really stands out with Pete Alonso is how great a teammate he is. It is utterly stunning to believe a player with less than 10 games under his belt may already be the glue guy in the clubhouse. Speaking of Alonso, while everyone was celebrating the opposite field hitting, it was nice to see the Mets start hitting for power again.
- The Mets signed Wilson Ramos for his bat. We are seeing that with his lackluster pitch framing and how he couldn’t locate a ball which was right behind him allowing a runner to score from second.
- It was great to see Travis d’Arnaud return. He’s been an under-appreciated player because he has not been exactly what he was supposed to be, but he is good behind the plate. Sooner or later, his pitch framing is going to really help this team.
- On the one hand, all of Callaway’s double switching is maddening because it is partially the reason why this bullpen is so taxed. On the other hand, it is proving to be an adept way to get everyone into the game and having them getting enough reps to contribute when called upon. Ultimately, Callaway just needs to find a way to better handle this bullpen.
- I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The Mets sell out when they have these bobble head days. For the life of me, I do not understand how it makes sense to send kids home upset and to ruin their experience at the park by not having enough bobble heads for everyone. This a sponsored giveaway, and they are cheap to make. The mid market Brewers have figured this out, and they order enough so they can donate the extras after the game. Seems like it’s better to have everyone walking out with a Jacob deGrom and Todd Frazier bobble head this weekend than having sad little kids, which is never good for business.
As is normally the case a week into the baseball season, you will see some players perform above their talent level and some below theirs. When it comes to the slow starts, people typically take more notice and begin to look for reasons and question what is wrong.
When you see Robinson Cano hitting .188 and Brandon Nimmo hitting .087, the prudent course of action is to take a wait and see approach. These are two hitters with a track record, especially Cano, and it is very possible they emerge from these struggles and return to their career norms.
While you are inclined to give Cano and Nimmo the benefit of the doubt, J.D. Davis is a different case. When you look at his hitting .150/.227/.250, it is actually fair to ask if this is what he really is as a hitter.
Certainly, it is fair to point out his 22 plate appearances is an extremely small sample size. If you want to extrapolate it further, his 203 career plate appearances, especially since they are split up over parts of three seasons, are a small sample size as well. That said, it is somewhat troubling that with his receiving more and more opportunities, his OPS+ continues to drop.
At some point, we need to investigate why and if there is more at-hand than the variations associated with a small sample size.
Davis’ biggest proponents will point out how he led the Pacific Coast League in batting average last year. Hitters league or not, Davis put together a solid season hitting .342/.406/.583 with 25 doubles, two triples, 17 homers, and 81 RBI. The disparity between those numbers and his Major League numbers do require closer analysis.
In Triple-A last year, Davis had a 9.5% walk rate and a 18.3% strikeout rate. When Davis made contact, he hit it on the ground 40.6% of the time, and he pulled it 47.2% of the time. By and large, these numbers held true throughout Davis’ minor league career, but it should be noted the strikeout rate was a career low for him. Since he started playing for full season affiliates, Davis had struck out between 23.2% – 28.4% of the time.
Putting aside his results in the majors, his offensive profile looks similar to the type of hitter he was in the minors. In his 203 Major League plate appearances, he has walked 7.9% of the time, and he has struck out 27.1% of the time. He has a 54.2% ground ball rate, and he pulls the ball 45.8% of the time.
When looking at scouting reports, Baseball America said, “It will always come with a significant number of strikeouts and he’s unlikely to hit better than .230-.240 albeit with decent on-base percentages because he draws some walks. While many Astros have embraced hitting more fly balls, Davis’ swing leads to a lot of screaming ground balls.”
Really, when you break it down, this is what Davis is. He’s a hitter who is going to hit the ball very hard on the ground. At a time in baseball history where teams shift and even over-shift, the balls Davis hit for singles and even doubles at the Triple-A level are going to go for ground outs.
Moreover, in an area with advanced data, Major League pitchers are going to be able to pitch Davis much better than a Triple-A pitcher would. They have the scouting reports and ability to pitch it in areas not only where Davis is prone to swing-and-miss, but they are also able to locate it in areas where they know Davis will just pull a grounder into the shift.”
Unfortunately, when you break it down, even though Davis’ raw power rivals that of Pete Alonso, his production is more akin to Eric Campbell, another player who hit the ball very hard on the ground to the left side of the infield. As such, until Davis makes significant adjustments, his career is not going to “launch” the way the Mets anticipated, and sooner or later, he’s going to have be “grounded.”
After the Mets swept the Marlins, they’re now 5-1 and in first place as they come home for their home opener. Here’s the 20/20 observations from the last series:
- When Pedro Martinez compared Jacob deGrom to himself, you got the perfect comparison to just how dominant deGrom is right now. Although we can be sure the Dodger loving Wilpons think Sandy Koufax (either way you take it).
- With deGrom pitching great with Wilson Ramos on Opening Day and Tomas Nido yesterday, we’re seeing giving any credit to Devin Mesoraco was nonsense. Moreover, we’re seeing how better catchers help produce better results.
- In addition to their producing well on the field so far, it’s great to see Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith cheering for one another. Since late last year, and perhaps before that, they were adversaries as far as the future of first base was concerned. They rose above it to show they’re better people than they are players.
- While we believe Juan Lagares‘ extension was a mistake, there’s no doubt he impacts the game when he’s on the field. In the series, we saw him hit a game tying homer, and with his hustle, he reached base even on outs. He’s already at a 1 DRS, and he’s flashing his arm again. He’s potentially a difference maker.
- When the Mets traded Ross Adolph, Scott Manea, and Luis Santana, they paid a hefty price for J.D. Davis. It’s becoming increasingly clear, he’s not going to hit well or play good defense. As a result, each game the Mets force him into the lineup only serves to make a bad situation worse.
- On Davis, do yourself a favor and don’t look at the Astros 1B/DH situation.
- While it was nice to see Luis Guillorme finally get into a game, he needs to see more action, especially with Davis playing his way to a demotion.
- It’s very cool to see Yoenis Cespedes‘ brother Yoelkis regarded as one of the top Cuban prospects available. Here’s hoping the Mets can find a way to add him to the organization.
- The schadenfreude seeing the Yankees follow a Mets-like offseason with a series of Metsian injuries (CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Troy Tulowitzki, Jacoby Ellsbury) is off the charts.
- With respect to Brandon Nimmo, it was shocking to see him not get a day after getting hit on the hand. Even if he was alright, with him scuffling, it made sense to give him the extra day.
- Mickey Callaway‘s handling of the bullpen in the series was both bad and dangerous. He pushed a Luis Avilan, a LOOGY with a history of shoulder injuries, to try to pitch two innings. He also pushed Seth Lugo to try almost 40 pitches despite his being ill. That’s how you make two laughers nail biters.
- That said, Robert Gsellman needs to be better. It was his performance which led to Callaway needing to turn to Edwin Diaz for the save.
- Even with the struggles from the rest of the pen, the Mets are more than alright with Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Justin Wilson ready to go 7-8-9 to close out a win.
- If the Mets can’t trust Jason Vargas to go more than five innings against the worst team in baseball when the bullpen is short, why is he in the rotation, especially when Dallas Keuchel is still a free agent.
- With the Mets not trusting Vargas, we need to keep a close eye on Anthony Kay who impressed in Spring Training and will be the Opening Day starter for Binghamton today.
- It was hard to tell on TV, but with a large contingent of Mets fans at Marlins Park, is booing Peter O’Brien still going to be a thing.
- Umpire Ron Kulpa’s behavior was unnecessarily confrontational and unbefitting to the impartiality and temperance we should expect from an umpire. A.J. Hinch was right to confront him, and now it’s time for MLB to confront and potentially begin to suspend umpires who behave this way.
- With respect to Ron Darling‘s book, former teammates Dwight Gooden, Kevin Mitchell, and Darryl Strawberry defending Lenny Dykstra doesn’t mean Darling is lying. There’s a lot of room between those players not hearing something and it actually happening even if Oil Can Boyd said he didn’t hear anything.
- More troubling than the Darling/Dykstra controversy is Darling saying Bob Murphy would pass out drunk in the clubhouse and saying Gary Carter tried to stuff the All-Star ballots. Dykstra is a man who is all too eager to defend himself. Dead men like Murphy and Carter can’t.
- It’s going to be sad to not hear David Wright‘s name announced with the team on Opening Day. It’s not too similar from 2006 when we didn’t hear Mike Piazza‘s name. Hopefully, this will be like 2006 in more ways than one.