Peter Alonso
Yet again, Luis Guillorme made a terrific defensive play. It’s what he does, and aside from possibly Francisco Lindor, he plays defense far better than anyone on the New York Mets.
Unreal snag @lguillorme13 ? pic.twitter.com/3u4ha1WH9G
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 8, 2021
When you see plays like this and all the plays Guillorme can make, there should be no doubt about playing him everyday. Not only is Guillorme a real asset with his defense, he’s also a difference maker.
At least defensively, Guillorme and Lindor would combine to be one of, if not the best middle infields in all of baseball. That would be of vital importance to a Mets pitching staff who generates a large number of ground balls.
On that front, it’s important to note Pete Alonso is a bad first baseman. His -7 DRS since his MLB debut is the second worst. His -9 OAA is one of the worst too. Having Guillorme at second would help offset that.
He’d do that much better than Jeff McNeil. McNeil is good at second with a 1 DRS. He’s just not on Guillorme’s par. That’s not a slight to McNeil in the least, but rather, an acknowledgment of just how good Guillorme is defensively.
Keep in mind, Guillorme is not just a glove. He can hit too.
No, Guillorme is not a 30 home run hitter. He’s not even half that. Still, in big moments, he can hit one out:
Guillorme has seen his wRC+ increase in each one of his MLB seasons. Part of the reason is he’s been steadily increasing. He projects to be a near league average. That’s more than alright for an eighth place hitter with his glove.
That goes double when the Mets are already sacrificing defense at first, third, left, and center. A player in just for defense makes more than enough sense for a team shoe-horning in bats and has a ground ball staff.
All told, Guillorme is an excellent defender who can hit. He’s going to offset Alonso’s defense on the right side while creating a dynamic double play duo with Lindor.
All told, Guillorme is exactly what the Mets need at second, and he’s a better all strong player than he gets credit. As such, he should be put in the Opening Day lineup and on each of the ensuing games.
When a really good NBA prospect is drafted, the question is which sneaker company is going to sign him. Invariably, it is Nike, and we see the shoe company put out new designs for those players. Inevitably, that leads to a rush of purchases for those exclusive sneakers, and it does lead to that players’ profile being raised even higher.
For other sports, this doesn’t work quite as well. While NBA players wear sneakers, which people, especially children, can wear everyday, you can’t wear cleats or skates on an everyday basis. So, to that end, other sports need to find a way to better market players and their equipment. If you look towards Marcus Stroman and Francisco Lindor, the answer to that might just be baseball mitts.
On-field options. ? @RawlingsSports @_shugo pic.twitter.com/MOC5dEZT0p
— Marcus Stroman (@STR0) March 3, 2021
It’s final in Jupiter. #Mets pic.twitter.com/k18oSL1MIR
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 1, 2021
It used to be baseball mitts were basically two to three colors. There was the tan, the brown, and the black. Now, we are starting to see many more colors on the field as players begin to express their personality more. It is not just through the bat flips and celebrations. It is increasingly by what they wear when they take the field.
When it comes to fans, they love this, and when it comes to kids, they want to be just like their favorite players. That’s why they want to wear their favorite players jerseys and shirseys. If there was a special mitt out there, they may well go out there and try to get their parents to buy that too.
Yes, many players have their signature in baseball mitts. If you go to Dicks right now, you can go get your Mike Trout baseball mitt. It is just like the mitts they had 30 years ago where the only real defining characteristic was the signature. If you are Rawlings or another company, you could go out and change that.
Every year, you could have a release of the new fashion designed mitts for their top MLB players. They can make specially designed mitts for each player, and they could send that out to the market. For children, who need a new glove every few years (if not more), this could lead them to try to get a new one each year. The same could be said for older players who need to replace them more for wear or tear reasons.
This could very well be a unique opportunity for baseball companies to market MLB players. They could have a release during Spring Training or at some point during the offseason. Will it reach the height of the sneaker releases, no, but it doesn’t have to reach those levels. Rather, all they need to do is just raise the visibility of the product and the players.
If they can successfully pull this off, MLB players could see their popularity increase, and baseball equipment companies could very well see their product lines sell more. After all, what little Mets fan wouldn’t be running to the stores begging their parents to buy them the new Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jacob deGrom, Lindor, or Stroman mitt as Little League seasons are about a month or so away?
As fans, we are always so critical of the manger about the lineup. Of course, we know managers don’t really set the lineup anymore, and more to the point, there are just so many moving pieces when setting a lineup. While overlooked, there really is a human element at play, which fans are never quite aware.
When it comes to the Mets, there are so many different options on how to set this lineup. For starters, there are four elite lead-off hitters. There are seven middle of the lineup caliber bats. Luis Rojas and the Mets front office have to balance egos as well as how to get the most out of all of their hitters. Taking all of that into account, the 2021 Mets lineup should be:, 3B
- Jeff McNeil, 3B
- Brandon Nimmo, CF
- Francisco Lindor, SS
- Michael Conforto, RF
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Dominic Smith, LF
- James McCann, C
- Luis Guillorme, 2B
The caveat here is this is obviously not going to be the lineup. After all, early indications from Spring Training are Nimmo will hit lead-off, and the Mets are going to give J.D. Davis the bulk of the playing time at third despite his being incapable of playing the position.
The reason to bat McNeil lead-off is two-fold. First and foremost, McNeil is at his best batting lead-off. As previously detailed, McNeil is an aggressive hitter at the plate, and he is terrific hitting fastballs. Notably, pitchers throw a fastball to start the game over 99% of the time. That gives McNeil an advantage, and it allows him to get an ideal pitch to swing and put in play. Worst case, pitchers adapt, throw something else, and then fall out of rhythm.
That gives Nimmo the opportunity to be a second lead-off hitter. After the pitcher had to deal with McNeil jumping all over him, Nimmo can then work the deep counts he always does. As an aside, a healthy Nimmo is the Mets best hitter, and at least statistically, a team’s best hitter should bat second in the lineup.
What’s interesting is while your best hitter should bat second, your second best hitter should bat fourth. Some of this is counter-intuitive because we’ve done baseball a certain way for more than a century. Keeping that in mind, the Mets second best hitter is arguably Conforto.
wRC+ since 2017
McNeil 139
Nimmo 136
Alonso 136
Conforto 132
Lindor 119
Smith 116 https://t.co/KIyBzWH9it— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) February 21, 2021
Conforto has the longer and better track record. Like Nimmo and Lindor, he’s also shown the ability to hit without the juiced ball. That’s not an indictment of the younger hitters who have only played with the juiced ball. It’s just a fact.
That means Conforto should bat cleanup. Who should bat third is an interesting debate. Given his stature as a superstar and his being a switch hitter, Lindor slots in well here.
Batting Lindor third, also allows the Mets to begin the L-R alternating through the bottom of the lineup. That gives the Mets the most lethal 5-6 hitters in all of baseball and gives them the deepest lineup in all of baseball.
That leads us to Guillorme eighth. Fact is, he’s Gold Glove caliber at second. With the ground ball heavy pitching staff the Mets have, he definitively needs to be in the lineup over Davis. It should also be noted Guillorme has been improving significantly offensively while Davis is a ground ball machine.
Of course, certain players may feel better or more comfortable in different spots. The Mets may also want to change it up when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound. That said, at least on paper, this is the optimal Mets lineup.
With the universal DH thankfully not returning in 2021, Pete Alonso seems poised to once again be the New York Mets everyday first baseman. That is music to Alonso’s ears:
"I will never think of myself as a DH. I will always think of myself as a first baseman"
– Pete Alonso talks about being a DH last season and why he will always consider himself a first baseman pic.twitter.com/BgwKZvXLjS
— SNY (@SNYtv) February 26, 2021
When talking about the season, Alonso reiterated he doesn’t want to be a one dimensional player. He spoke about the want to play first. He also called himself a “really good first baseman.”
The problem is Alonso isn’t. In actuality, he’s quite bad there. Sadly, with his -7 DRS since his MLB debut, he’s the second worst defensive first baseman in the game.
As a result, he’s ideally DH thereby allowing Dominic Smith to play first. Smith is good there, and it would get him out of left. Really, in many ways, Alonso talks about his defense like he’s Smith.
As noted, he’s not, and he’s not really close. That said he’s come a REALLY long way.
As a prospect, there was legitimate doubt over whether Alonso could play the position at the Major League level. Alonso has put in the work, and he’s made himself extraordinarily better than he was.
Especially given his bat, you can play him at first. There’s more than that. Notably, Alonso does a good job picking throws out of the dirt. That’s far easier said than done, and it’s a real plus at the position.
This is all part of Alonso having tremendous work ethic and the right mindset. He believes in himself, and a large part of that is he believes in putting in the work. And there have been real and tangible results.
Alonso has a lot of pride as a baseball player. He tirelessly works to improve, and he has continued to improve. While Alonso is not a good first baseman, he’s leaps and bounds better than he used to be. That’s evidence that he will continue to improve, perhaps significantly.
So no, Alonso is not good at first. However, no one should discount his getting there. After all, he’s doing all he can to one day become really good there.
As we look at the 2021 Mets, offensively speaking this team is an embarrassment of riches. This team is full of players who can be great hitting lead-off and can make the argument they should be hitting in the middle of the lineup. As you parse through it all, the debate begins over who exactly is the best hitter on this team.
It may come to surprise you the answer is actually Brandon Nimmo.
No, that is not going to be a popular answer, especially among a fanbase who has a contingent who bizarrely believes Nimmo is a fourth outfielder. To that point, if we look since 2017, here are the Mets top hitters according to wRC+:
- Jeff McNeil 139
- Brandon Nimmo 136
- Pete Alonso 136
- Michael Conforto 132
- Francisco Lindor 119
- Dominic Smith 116
- J.D. Davis 115
- Luis Guillorme 93
- James McCann 91
Now, looking at that list, McNeil is ahead of Nimmo, and Nimmo is in a dead heat with Alonso. Really, taking the top four into account the 132 – 139 range isn’t really much of a separation to adjudge who is best among that group. However, there is more to the story when you are looking at Nimmo.
Nimmo’s biggest issue in terms of these rankings is he mostly missed out on the super juiced ball of 2019. While everyone was putting up video game numbers, Nimmo first dealt with a sore hand after a HBP early in the season. Soon thereafter, he was found to have a bulging disc which cost him the vast majority of that season.
While injuries of that nature are certainly concerning, Nimmo has done nothing but shown he has overcame that injury. Nimmo was reactivated when rosters were expanded in September. From September 1 through the 2020 season, Nimmo hit .275/.412/.506, and he posted a 151 wRC+. That wasn’t exactly a fluke.
In Nimmo’s breakout 2018 season, Nimmo had a 148 wRC+. It’s of interest to note, Nimmo had the same mark in 2020. That’s elite offensive production, and in his last two healthy seasons, he’s posted that same number. Keep in mind, that’s better than any other player on the Mets has posted over the course of a full 162 game season.
Yes, last season, we did see some Mets players post a better wRC+. Specifically, Smith had a 164, and Conforto had a 157. In terms of both, we have seen enough in their careers to indicate they are capable of producing incredible offensive seasons like that. We know the same for McNeil and Alonso. We haven’t seen it in New York, but we know Lindor is a very good offensive player albeit it one a step behind the rest.
Still, no one on the Mets roster has produced the numbers Nimmo has when Nimmo has been healthy. When healthy, Nimmo has produced at a level commensurate with players like Juan Soto (152), Christian Yelich (147), and Freddie Freeman (146). Since 2017, that’s the level of offensive player Nimmo has been.
Certainly, people refuse to believe it and want to write it off because Nimmo walks too much as if that is a bad thing. They also dismiss his approach citing he’s taking hittable pitches while ignoring his .456 SLG and .850 OPS. Nimmo is a player who makes a pitcher work, he gets on base, and he hits for power. That should be seen as the ideal profile for a hitter.
Also, keep in mind, it’s not just about batting average or homers. It’s about the ability to get on base. Few in all of baseball are better than Nimmo in that department and certainly no one on the Mets.
Overall, when Nimmo is healthy, he is the best offensive player in this lineup. Sure, he could very well be surpassed by players like Alonso or Conforto. That is very well possible given the caliber of player they are. However, keep in mind even with all the great things they do, they still haven’t done what Nimmo when healthy over the course of a 162 game season.
Look across the diamond. The New York Mets are a significantly better baseball team. It’s not just better in terms of the rotation and starting lineup, but it’s also better in terms of their burgeoning depth. Despite that, somehow, the Mets failed to address their biggest need of the offseason – third base.
J.D. Davis is the incumbent third baseman, and simply put, he has done nothing but prove he has no business playing the position at the Major League level. In his career, he has played 770.0 innings there, and he has amassed a -19 DRS. As previously put in perspective, that was worse than what Wilmer Flores posted as the position, and there was near unanimous consent Flores should never man the position again.
The Mets were well aware of this, and that’s why they seemingly went out of their way this offseason to say they were going to upgrade at third base. He said the position was “up in the air,” and the team went on what seemed to be wild goose chases for Kris Bryant and Eugenio Suarez. For all we know, they are still doing all they can to pry those players loose from their current teams.
When the Mets were unable to acquire a real third baseman before the start of Spring Training, Luis Rojas was reluctant to name anyone as the team’s third baseman. That would appear to be an indictment of Davis, especially with second base becoming vacant with Robinson Cano‘s season long suspension.
At least on the surface, it would seem Davis would keep his slot at third with Jeff McNeil becoming the everyday third baseman. However, that’s not entirely possible with Davis not being able to play the position. In fact, Davis is literally the worst fielder in the Major Leagues.
Over the past two seasons, Davis has amassed a combined -29 DRS. That includes a -17 DRS at third and a -12 DRS in left field. Just to put in perspective how bad that is, he is the only player to appear TWICE among the worst 30 fielders over the past two seasons. As we’ve seen, the Mets just can’t hide him in the field. That goes double for third.
Making Davis at third even worse is the current complexion of the Mets pitching staff. Overall, this is a heavy ground ball pitching staff. To wit, here are their GB/FB ratios since 2017:
- Marcus Stroman 2.66
- Noah Syndergaard 1.68
- Carlos Carrasco 1.35
- Taijuan Walker 1.34
- Jacob deGrom 1.34
- Joey Lucchesi 1.33
- David Peterson 1.22
- Jordan Yamamoto 0.80
Looking at the make-up of the Mets top eight starting pitching options, seven of them induce batters to hit the ball on the ground. That makes having a good defensive infield more of an imperative. Yes, Francisco Lindor goes a long way towards doing that, but by playing Davis next to him, the Mets are effectively neutralizing Lindor’s effect.
Digging deeper, the Mets are going to play Pete Alonso at first where he is not a good fielder. That means the Mets are going to trot out a ground ball staff and have the Major League worst defense at the corners. Really, this does not remotely make any sense whatsoever. Really, it’s ponderous the Mets would even consider going in this direction.
When you look at it from that perspective, Davis cannot play third everyday. It only serves to hurt the team. Ideally, the Mets would pull off that blockbuster we’ve been waiting for them to pull off all offseason to acquire a third baseman, or they need to play Luis Guillorme everyday at second pushing McNeil to third, where he is a better fielder.
No matter what the Mets do, they simply cannot make Davis the everyday third baseman. They’ve done far too much this offseason, and they’ve built their team a certain way. Allowing Davis and his defense, or lack thereof, diminish or neutralize it, makes zero to no sense.
When you look at the 2020 season, there were many who called it a sophomore slump for Pete Alonso, and we have seen some articles indicating the New York Mets need him to rebound. These articles are being written and the discussions are taking place because Alonso was not the same player in 2020 that he was in his record breaking Rookie of the Year season in 2019.
Despite that, Alonso was very good at the plate in 2020. Over the course of the season, he had a 118 wRC+ and a 123 OPS+. That rated him as a top 10 hitter at first base. Alonso was on a 162 game pace for 45 homers and 99 RBI. Those 45 homers would have been second only to himself for the single season mark in Mets history.
Looking at Baseball Savant, Alonso still had very good exit velocity numbers and an even better barrel rate. His whiff rate was poor, but that was counter-balanced by a good walk rate. Overall, these were promising numbers for a second year player who turned 26 years old.
Of course, the problem is that’s not how it is perceived. The reason is that all of Alonso’s numbers had regressed across the board. Honestly, that should lead people to question the reason why that happened. There are several possible reasons.
First and foremost, 2020 was just a bizarre season, and it left players in a strange place to get ready for the season and to get into rhythm. Alonso had served as the DH fairly often, which was a departure from his routine. There was more of a book on him than there was during his rookie year. Of course, while it was not often discussed with Alonso, the ball was no longer juiced. Well, it wasn’t as juiced as it was in 2019.
There’s also the possibility the 2019 season was Alonso’s career year. Really, it is no slight to say a season with a 5.2 WAR is a career year for a player. That’s an excellent season. Alonso can realistically fall short of ever repeating that while still being a very good 3-4 win player for the rest of his career.
We also shouldn’t discount Alonso being better. As we sit here, no one can really know which way his career is going to go. The only thing we do know is Alonso’s 2019 set the stage for Alonso having fairly unrealistic expectations. Expecting a player to hit 50+ homers a year is just an unfair and unrealistic expectation.
Whether people will admit it or not, that is the bar Alonso set for his rookie year. It is where people expect him to be because they really don’t know him to be anything other than that. Really, it is unfair to put him on that because he doesn’t have to be that in order to be an All-Star caliber player. He doesn’t have to be that to continue to emerge as the face of the Mets.
What Alonso needs to be is Alonso. Whatever that proves out to be will be a good player and an even better teammate and person.
When you look to build a roster, your bench should be reflective of what you are missing from your everyday players. For the New York Mets as constructed, they are missing a good defender at third, and they have a heavy left-handed hitting lineup. Ideally, a bench player for the Mets should be a strong defender at third, and it should be someone who can hit left-handed pitchers.
Like it or not, that describes Todd Frazier.
Since originally signing with the Mets, Frazier has been a 2 OAA for the Mets at third base and a 3 DRS overall. While this isn’t the plus defender he once was, Frazier remains a strong defender at the position, which puts him light years ahead of their incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis.
As a hitter, Frazier has not been the same player since he posted a 117 OPS+ in 2015. Over parts of the last three seasons with the Mets, Frazier had a below average 98 OPS+ with a 97 OPS+ overall. Looking behind those numbers on Baseball Savant, Frazier is a player with declining exit velocities and barrels.
All told, we see with Frazier he is a soon to be 35 year old baseball player. Before he signed with the Mets, he was a relative iron man. Since 2018, he has been nicked up here and there. With that also comes a player with years of experience who has been a leader in the clubhouse. In fact, when the Mets re-acquired him at the trade deadline last year, the Mets players were happy he was returning:
Pete Alonso on Todd Frazier: “He just brings good vibes no matter where he goes.”
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) August 31, 2020
However, he does provide more value than just a good glove and a good guy in the clubhouse. While he has faltered against right-handed pitching, he continues to thrive against left-handed pitching. Since 2018, Frazier has a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and a 105 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. That would make him a strong platoon option and late defensive replacement.
In his career, he he has been strong coming off the bench hitting .286/.389/.494 in 77 career games entering the game as substitute. With the Mets, we have also seen him have the penchant for a clutch late inning homer:
Looking at what Frazier has provided the Mets and his positive presence in the clubhouse, he is someone who merits consideration. Seeing what he could provide the team in 2021, he does deserve a closer look from this front office.
That said, he is still 35 and still in decline. Because of that, he really doesn’t merit anything beyond a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. If he performs well then, he should get a role on the Opening Day roster. If not, he can certainly go down to Syracuse as depth. That is, if he is willing to do so.
Overall, whether fans like it or not, Frazier could make a positive contribution to the Mets in 2021. However, that would only be in a very limited role, one which he has been unaccustomed for much of his career. All told, if he’s willing to accept a minor league deal to return and to stay closer to home like he wants, it is something that could be mutually beneficial to both sides.
The position of the New York Mets seems to be defense only matters when you can have a designated hitter. If you have no DH, then you need to shoehorn in as many bats as you can into the lineup. In other words, the Mets are purposefully going to put out a sub-optimal defense and torpedo their pitching staff because of one position.
It’s beyond ridiculous.
Brandon Nimmo has averaged a -4 DRS in center over the past three seasons, and that is despite his not having played more than 350.1 innings at the position in any one year. Dominic Smith has averaged -2 DRS in left over the past three seasons despite not having played more than 219.0 innings in any season. J.D. Davis has averaged a -6 DRS at third over the past three seasons despite not having played more than 269.1 innings there in a season.
All told, these three players have proven themselves ill suited to handle the positions they are currently slated to play. What is maddening when you look at Nimmo and Smith is they are actually quite good at their real positions. Nimmo has a 5 DRS as a left fielder in his career, and Smith, after taking away his rookie season, has a 0 DRS as a first baseman.
It just seems bizarre to purposefully put these players in a position to purposefully fail. Nimmo belongs in left, Smith belongs at first, and Davis belongs on the bench. If you are a team operating responsibly, that is what you should unequivocally do.
Obviously, this is not taking into account Pete Alonso. Frankly, the Mets not addressing this logjam was their way of ignoring Alonso. In reality, the Mets are carrying three first baseman with him, Smith, and Davis. That’s three players for one position. That number grows to four when you look at Jose Martinez, who was signed to a minor league deal.
The Mets unwillingness to move one of those players this offseason has created a very real problem with this roster. Unless it is all a smokescreen, which it very well might, the actual plan is to put three first baseman on the field everyday and put a left fielder in center. They then hope this plan which always fails doesn’t fail again this time.
For some reason, that is a Sandy Alderson tactic. In the early years of Citi Field, we saw him jam Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and Daniel Murphy into the lineup. We also saw him try Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson in center rather than get a player who could actually go other there and handle the position on an everyday basis. At this point, you just wonder how much this was an accident and how much this is his actual plan.
Certainly, you can and should argue Alonso, Nimmo, and Smith need to play everyday. No one will argue with that proposition. However, they can’t do it all on the same roster. Center field is far too important of a defensive position.
You have to go back to 2012 and 2014 with the San Francisco Giants winning with Angel Pagan to find a team who won with a bad defensive center fielder. Before that, you have to go to Johnny Damon with the 2004 Boston Red Sox. Before that, there isn’t publicly available DRS information. All told, in this century, there is really just three seasons teams won without an at least decent center fielder.
If you are operating a baseball team, you can’t look at purposefully punt center field defense. It’s even worse by putting a first baseman next to the center fielder in left. Then, to make sure you’ve done all you can do to screw things up, you throw a first baseman at third in front of the third baseman in left. It’s ridiculous.
Really, there is no way the Mets can go forward with this roster to begin the season. They need to add an actual third baseman and an actual center fielder. If one of Alonso or Smith has to sit, so be it. That’s the position the Mets put themselves in. If you need to move one of them in a deal to address a need, do it, but only so long as it is a good deal.
All told, it is poor planning and team building to purposefully put out a terrible defensive outfield. We saw in 2020 how much that can completely derail a season. We’ve seen it other times in Mets history. Whether or not there is a DH, the Mets still need to find everyday players at third and center.
Period.