Noah Syndergaard
Maybe this is just the excitement which comes from Opening Day. Certainly, that is amplified by new ownership, the Francisco Lindor extension, and Jacob deGrom taking the mound. However, taking everything into account, this New York Mets team is the best one we have seen since 2015 and probably 2006.
Like most times the Mets are good, they are going to be led by pitching. Their starting staff is great, and when healthy, it is the best in baseball. Part of the reason why is deGrom is still the best pitcher in baseball. Behind him right now is Marcus Stroman. Stroman has made adjustments and added new pitches, and he looks set for a career year. That is really saying something considering he has been a gamer his entire career, and he was the World Baseball Classic MVP.
Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco may be the two most underrated pitchers in baseball. Looking at their FIP, they pitch at or near an ace level. In this rotation, they may be no better than third or fourth starters. It’s not just doing deGrom-Stroman-Syndergaard-Carrasco. This is one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball.
Behind that quartet is Taijuan Walker who was once a top 100 prospect, and he seems poised to take a big step forward after using analytics to help him improve. After Walker, the Mets have David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto, each of whom could be around a three in most rotations. For the Mets, they will eventually be on the outside looking in.
They are all going to be better pitchers because they have the tandem of James McCann and Tomas Nido behind the plate. Both of these players are strong catchers who are excellent pitch framers. Having catchers like that behind the plate make good pitchers even better. When your starting pitching is great and operating at a high level, you are going to win a lot of games.
This is paired with an incredible lineup. They Mets have an embarrassment of riches on that front. Consider Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have each been All-Star lead-off hitters, and they aren’t even the Mets best lead-off hitter. That’s Brandon Nimmo. With that group plus Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith, their 1-6 of their lineup can and probably should be hitting in the middle of the order.
Now, this Mets team isn’t perfect. Far from it. The first problem is their bullpen. The good news on that front is between Edwin Diaz and Trevor May, they have the last two innings covered well. The hope is at least one of Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, or Jeurys Familia can figure it out to become that seventh inning reliever. That is at least until Seth Lugo is good to return. When that happens the Mets bullpen will be in great shape.
Another factor there is the Mets have some other interesting options. Sooner or later, Drew Smith will be healthy and ready to rejoin the bullpen. It should also be noted when the Mets have their full rotation, someone like Lucchesi can move down to the bullpen where his churve could be a weapon on par with Lugo’s curveball.
The other issue is the defense. Simply put, having J.D. Davis at third is unacceptable. He can’t remotely field the position. Having Dominic Smith behind him makes the left side defense one of the worst in baseball. To that, they may not be the worst in the division with the Atlanta Braves probably being worse with Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.
It’s very possible Brandon Nimmo can succeed with positioning in center. After all, he’s had positive OAAs in center most of his career, and he does have the speed for the position. Jeff McNeil seems more comfortable at second, and while Alonso has his defensive issues, he is quite adept and receiving throws around first.
While the lineup has serious defensive issues, the bench does not. Luis Guillorme is a Gold Glove caliber defender. Albert Almora and Kevin Pillar are also quite good. With the lead, we can and should see Luis Rojas run all three out with Smith moving to first base. When that happens, the Mets defensive alignment turns from questionable to really strong.
Therein lies the key. Aside from health, Rojas is going to be the biggest key to this Mets season. He is going to need a deft touch as to when to utilize his defensive replacements. He and Jeremy Hefner are also going to have to get their rotation healthy through the season, which is all the more challenging because of the shortened season last year. They are also going to have to find the right mix in the bullpen while making sure they don’t overuse their best relievers.
Right now, the Mets have the right mix to have a great season. They also have an owner willing to invest in the team, and they have Sandy Alderson in charge, who we know will not be shy making a key trade or two to improve this Mets roster.
Looking at the Braves, their pitching has durability issues, and their defensive issues may be worse than the Mets. The Phillies don’t have the starting pitching, and their bullpen was a disaster last year. The Marlins are young and not deep. The Nationals still don’t know what they are going at key positions on the field.
Taking everything into account, the Mets are the best team in the National League East. If Rojas is up to the task, and there is every reason to believe he will be, the Mets are well poised to return to the postseason again and let their pitching take them back to the World Series.
Being honest and fair, the 10 year/$325 million offer to Francisco Lindor was absolutely offering the superstar a contract everyone should’ve expected him to accept. As such, it’s a fine place to draw a line in the sand.
If that was it, everyone could move forward and wait until after the 2021 season. However, that is just part of the story. The other part is how the Mets have handled this publicly.
What do think Lindor will accept? I’m going to crowdsource the answer
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) March 26, 2021
I don’t see a lot of brainstorming going on over here
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) March 30, 2021
There no teasing going on. I have made a great offer . It does take two to tango
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) March 30, 2021
Lindor is a heckuva player and a great guy . I hope he decides to sign
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) March 30, 2021
The Mets obviously leaked their offer, and Lindor’s camp obviously leaked their 12 year/$385 million counter-offer. If reports are to be believed, both sides are firmly entrenched in their positions and are playing chicken in advance of Opening Day.
If a deal is going to get done, someone has to blink. If it’s Lindor, that may not be as good for the Mets as some may believe.
Yes, Lindor blinking and signing that record deal is great for the Mets. It keeps a superstar and future Hall of Famer on the team for a decade. However, that’s only part of the story.
If the Mets very publicly make Lindor blink, all of baseball will notice. They’ll notice it just like they noticed when George Springer became a Toronto Blue Jay.
The Mets will look to be rigid and ruthless in negotiations. It will not be seen as a team trying to get a player, but rather, as an organization who looks to win every deal.
Keep in mind, that’s not the same as being cheap like the Wilpons. Clearly, Cohen has shown an ability and willingness to spend. This is something different.
It’s an odd situation where you make a record offer, and you make the other side have to swallow his pride and accept it. That’s exactly what will happen if Lindor signs that deal.
He will be in a clubhouse overjoyed he’s staying. He will also be in a clubhouse with players looking for their own deals.
Certainly, Michael Conforto, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, and their agents are watching this closely. At least with respect to Conforto and Syndergaard, the Mets have indicated there’s an interest in an extension.
How these players and their agents approach those negotiations will be very much impacted by the Lindor resolution. That’s not to say they won’t sign if the money isn’t right. Rather, it’ll be much more difficult to get there. That goes double where Scott Boras is involved.
The same will be true for future free agents. To a certain extent, it’s fair to say the Mets were shy in bidding wars, and they were not willing to go where they needed to go to get deals done.
Saying that with Lindor would be all the more alarming. It’s one thing for this to not get done. It’s another to leak offers and put public pressure to accept the proverbial “take it or leave it” offer.
Really, if the Mets just give an inch, perception changes. They will have finally gotten the big deal done. They suddenly seem more able to get deals done and be more creative and flexible. That has real value.
By first pitch on Opening Day, the Mets and Lindor either will or will not have a deal. If the Mets have a long term view, they will have Lindor for the next decade while just giving him that inch he needs to save face, and the inch the Mets need to give to help them with negotiations with their other star players and future free agents.
Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets, and suddenly, everything got better. After Cohen purchased the Mets, things were different, very different:
1. It’s still unbelievable to think the Mets added $92.1 million to the 2021 payroll alone. If nothing else, that announced everything was different.
2. The Francisco Lindor trade was a franchise defining trade. He’s a superstar as future Hall of Famer.
3. It’s still hard to believe a contract extension won’t get done. After him, Noah Syndergaard may get one next.
4. It’s hard to see Scott Boras letting Michael Conforto sign an extension now. However, if he does, he will be poised to be the next captain and break a lot of David Wright’s records.
5. Speaking of breaking records, Jacob deGrom looks primed to have a great year. He cane out in midseason form, and it’ll be a shock if he’s not the Cy Young.
6. When Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco return, this will be an all-time Mets rotation.
7. It’s still curious the plan to start the year is to put David Peterson in a position where he bounces back and forth all year.
8. Speaking of curious decisions, how do the Mets make all of these moves and build a ground ball staff only to trust J.D. Davis at third.
9. They’re also putting a lot of stock in Edwin Diaz being great, and Miguel Castro figuring it out. Although to be fair, it’s not the same with Davis as this was the result of Seth Lugo‘s injury.
10. Dellin Betances looks done. With him, we may find out just how much Cohen can tolerate and whether the Mets know how to handle a sunk cost.
11. With Jordan Yamamoto not making the Opening Day roster and Luis Guillorme not getting a starting job, we see Spring Training competitions are a complete fraud.
12. For all the lip service Sandy Alderson gave to making the Mats a better defensive team, he did what he always did in putting multiple first basemen in the field.
13. They may be deadening the ball, but Pete Alonso looks ready to murder them. He’s completely locked in and looks poised to have a monster year.
14. Marcus Stroman also looks set to have a great year. He may be a surprise Cy Young contender, and it may behoove the Mets to lock him up before his price tag soars.
15. Stroman is a reminder the Mets never needed Trevor Bauer. Bauer may have another great year, but he’d be a fifth starter on this team, and he would’ve prevented the Mets from extending their stars.
16. All told, this is a team who has a deep lineup and a very good starting rotation. There are holes, but the team seems confident they can win.
17. The black jerseys returning does give this team big 1999 vibes.
18. Luis Rojas may emerge as a surprise manager of the year candidate. This team is that good and so is he. The key will Be how well he utilizes his defensive replacements in Guillorme (who should be starting), Albert Almora, and Kevin Pillar.
19. James McCann seems like the perfect addition to this team. The pitchers seem to be raving about his leadership and work behind the plate. If he hits a little (and he can hit a lot), he’s going to be great.
20. Everything about this organization is different. The team is vastly improved. They’re looking to keep their best players. They’re beefing up their analytics and player development. Overall, it’s a great time to be a Mets fan.
When you think of Brandon Nimmo, you think of a player who is always smiling, hustling, and just seems to have an “aww shucks” mentality. That’s not to say he doesn’t come to beat you.
Nimmo is one of the toughest outs there is in the game, and he makes the pitcher work like few others. He’s also had a penchant for the big hit or key defensive play. That said, he just doesn’t have that “look” of a steely resolve of a player who just comes to beat you.
That was actually a hallmark of that 1999 Mets team. Whatever it is, we saw that with Edgardo Alfonzo, Rickey Henderson, Al Leiter, John Olerud, Mike Piazza, Rick Reed, Robin Ventura, and really, the entire team. It was just a mentality and attitude they had.
Looking at the current Mets team, Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard seems to be the only Mets players who truly have that mentality. Judging from his interview during Spring Training, Nimmo may be finding it as well.
"I'm sure Atlanta is pretty pissed off that everybody is talking about us"
Brandon Nimmo on the Mets being deemed favorites in the NL East: pic.twitter.com/2f9oO2qyVR
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 29, 2021
This shows this Mets team knows it’s good. It’s really good. They know they have a target on their backs, and like that 1999 team, they’re coming after the Atlanta Braves and all of baseball.
Before a pitch is thrown, this Mets team is already developing a swagger and a quiet confidence. They’re coming prepared, and they’re not letting anyone get in their way.
Seeing Nimmo there is yet another reason to believe in this team. During the course of the season, we’ll find 162 more.
After this season, Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. With respect to Conforto and Lindor, they have said they will not negotiate in-season.
At the moment, it does not appear the New York Mets are particularly close to completing deals with any of the four. That said, it hasn’t stopped Steve Cohen from having some fun with it.
What do think Lindor will accept? I’m going to crowdsource the answer
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) March 26, 2021
There are various reports on each. There’s some confidence Lindor will get his $300 million extension. No one trusts Boras will reach a deal on Conforto with the paucity of quality MLB outfielders on the free agent market. No one is sure what Syndergaard’s value is, and it seems like everything is silent on Stroman.
Mets talks: Total focus is on Lindor, and there’s hope there with 5 days to go for $300M-plus deal. Conforto was made offer but there’s no traction there. They checked in with Thor agents but tough to pinpoint price off TJ. Better news, he was throwing 97.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 27, 2021
This is still in the big yawn territory. Remember, the Mets held up the plane back to New York to ensure Jacob deGrom would sign his extension. Certainly, if they need to do that again, they’ll do it.
Up until the moment you hear player introductions on Opening Day is the time to be worried. Short of that, we should still trust at least one of these deals get done.
Make no mistake, Carlos Carrasco suffering a tear in his hamstring is terrible news for the New York Mets. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he’s arguably the second best pitcher on the team even when everyone is healthy.
That said, this injury does present an opportunity for the Mets, or better yet, their pitchers.
As detailed on The Apple, prior to Carrasco’s injury, the Mets currently have a very interesting fifth starter competition between Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto. So far, Lucchesi and Yamamoto have separated themselves from Peterson.
That’s to the Mets benefit because Peterson should probably begin the season in Syracuse. Part of the reason is his control and FIP, and the larger reason is with Noah Syndergaard returning, the fifth starter will be removed from the rotation. The Mets certainly won’t want to do that to Peterson.
Regardless of that, in the small sample size that is Spring Training, Peterson has just been out-pitched by Lucchesi and Yamamoto:
- Lucchesi – 2 G, 5.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
- Peterson – 2 G, 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, K
- Yamamoto – 3 G, 8.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, ER, BB, 5 K
Looking at the stats, Lucchesi has probably been the most dominant, but he’s walked three. Yamamoto has been strong, and he’s shown the most progress of this trio. In fact, he’s really been much more in the zone than he had been with the Miami Marlins.
Based upon your point of view, you could make a strong case for either pitcher. Other considerations to account for are Lucchesi being 27 and Yamamoto only having one option remaining.
In some ways, margins that razor thin can be dangerous. Part of the reason why is it’s just Spring Training, and these pitchers have only thrown the equivalent of one start.
As we know, aside from the greatness of Jacob deGrom, pitcher performances vary start to start. Making important decisions on that can lead to bad results. We’ve seen it happen with the Mets.
One classic example is the Tyler Yates/Aaron Heilman competition in 2004. Yates lasted seven starts, and Heilman never really would get the chance to start. The butterfly effect of that was the Mets losing Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
Of course, there’s Glendon Rusch beating out Bill Pulsipher in 2000. Rusch was very good in the Mets rotation that year before pitching extraordinarily well in the postseason that year. Pulsipher flamed out, and he was moved for Lenny Harris, who was great off the bench for that team.
While people don’t typically look at it that way, that’s what’s at stake in fifth starter battles. Remember, the fifth spot in the rotation comes up less than five times the top spot in the rotation does.
Who the fifth starter is does matter. We’ve seen that, and having seen that, it would greatly benefit teams to have more time to make their assessments.
That’s what the Carrasco injury affords the Mets. It allows them to start the season with both Lucchesi and Yamamoto in the rotation.
They can see how they work with James McCann and Tomas Nido in games that matter. They can see them against Major League rosters and going through a lineup more than once. All of that gives them better information to make their assessments.
In the end, Carrasco’s injury created an opportunity for another pitcher to grab a rotation spot. We will now see who is truly up for the task.
The New York Mets have four huge core players hitting free agency after the 2021 season – Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard. At various times, Sandy Alderson has stated they were going to address them one by one.
That’s understandable as one big deal to one may well impact another player. That’s why the Mets need to prioritize and work sequentially.
With Lindor being the future Hall of Famer and the best player on this team, he understandably comes first. He also comes first because Lindor has stated he will not negotiate in-season.
Realistically speaking, there’s no reason to believe the deal won’t get done. Lindor seems to be enjoying being a New York Met, and he has been open to an extension.
For the Mets part, you’d have to believe they had some sense of what it would take to get Lindor. Moreover, this is an area where Steve Cohen’s ownership of the Mets makes a true difference. All told, there is no reason to believe a deal won’t get done.
The real concern is the timing. Heading into the 2019 season, Jacob deGrom said he wouldn’t negotiate in-season. Eventually, deGrom signed just as the Mets were set to embark to begin the season.
If that were to happen with Lindor, we can all breath a sigh of relief. Well, that’s until we see if there is enough money to and time to extend everyone else.
While Luis Guillorme understandably grabbed all the headlines, he was not the only Mets player who impressed. Corey Oswalt also had a strong performance.
Oswalt pitched two scoreless innings striking out five of the six batters he faced. It was a reminder Oswalt may still have an impact at the MLB level.
At this point in his career, it is difficult to say he’s been good. There have been glimpses here and there, but overall, as his career 63 ERA+ would indicate, he’s struggled.
One of the biggest reasons why is how he’s been used, or better put, abused, by the Mets. He’s sat unused for far too long stretches, had him pitch on three or fewer days rest, and they’ve bounced him between roles with zero preparation.
Put another way, the Mets did not put Oswalt in a position to succeed, and he hasn’t. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t.
Oswalt is a true four pitch pitcher who is willing to throw any of his pitches at any count. One of the reasons he can do this is his control. While not exceptional, it’s still quite good, and he can locate his pitches where he wants.
Oswalt does not have great velocity averaging around 92 MPH on his fastball. He also has not shown much spin on any of his pitches. As noted, he does combat this by locating.
That said, his change has nice drop to it. That helps allow the swings-and-misses, and it helps induce weak contact. The issue is he hasn’t really had that chances. That’s something the Mets really haven’t had.
The question fo Oswalt is whether he’ll get that chance now. That’s certainly up for debate partially because of the Mets.
Overall, this was a strong 2,0 innings for Oswalt. He showed why the Mets can’t give up on him. That goes double with the Mets starting staff beginning the year without Noah Syndergaard and Seth Lugo.
That right there is the key. The Mets need to pick a role to permit Oswalt to thrive and work within that role with Jeremy Hefner. That could be as a reliever, and it could be as a fifth starter. That’s up to the Mets.
With Oswalt off the 40, he has to reprove himself to get that call up again. He then has to stick. He has the talent, and he’s got the ability to work on things. Where he goes from here depends on his development).
When teams assemble their pitching rotations, they typically assemble them in order of the talent of their top starters. Taking the New York Mets as an example, Jacob deGrom will be the Opening Day starter. After him, with Carlos Carrasco possibly delayed to start the season and Noah Syndergaard on the 60 day IL, it is fairly clear right now Marcus Stroman would be the second starter.
If you are taking the long term view of the season, Stroman should not be the second starter. Yes, he is the second best starter available, and if this was Game 2 of a postseason series, you would definitively be handing him the ball. However, in the regular season, that does not make any sense.
Looking at deGrom, since he has been the best pitcher in baseball, he has averaged 6.1 innings per start. If you look at the two seasons prior to 2020, he averaged 6.2 innings. That means whenever he takes the ball, the bullpen is getting a break. That is important when you consider the bullpen gets increasingly taxed and taxed with each start. To that, here is the average innings per start over the last four seasons for the Mets projected 2021 rotation options:
- Jacob deGrom 6.1
- Noah Syndergaard 6.0
- Carlos Carrasco 6.0
- Marcus Stroman 5.2
- Taijuan Walker 5.0
- David Peterson 5.0
- Joey Lucchesi 5.0
- Jordan Yamamoto 4.2
Now, the Mets seemed to be blessed with pitchers who tend to go deeper into games than most teams. Still, when fully healthy, this will be a rotation with two 5+ inning starters at the back end of their rotation. That means a bullpen who gets increasingly used after deGrom starts will be asked to provide a lot more without much of a break.
That was something which truly presented an issue for the Mets during deGrom’s first Cy Young campaign. Yes, he received little to no run support far too often that season. However, he also would see the bullpen blow a number of late leads for him. Part of the result is that the bullpen had been taxed heading into his starts. Rather than having the bullpen in the best possible shape to secure a win from their ace, they were on fumes hoping for deGrom to give them a break.
That is partially how you take a season for the ages and turn it into a 11-10 record for deGrom. That is both a reflection of how wins and losses for a pitcher are overrated. However, it is also an indication that something is going wrong that a pitcher who is setting records can’t buy a win.
If we were to look at the current Mets rotation, the bullpen is going to be well rested when deGrom takes the mound. Typically speaking, they will need to get about 6-8 outs in a game. That will leave them well rested. That is exactly the right time to line up the bullpen for a Walker start.
Typically speaking, Walker provides 5+ innings in a start. After deGrom, the bullpen will be well poised to provide that. Of course, after that, the Mets will have run through some of their bullpen. That is when you combat that by going to Syndergaard or Carrasco (if healthy) or Stroman. The Mets can then go to their 5+ inning fifth starter whether that is Luccesi, Peterson, or Yamamoto. Finally, the Mets could then go to Stroman who can eat some more innings before handing the ball back to deGrom.
By restructuring the rotation in that fashion, the Mets are positioning their bullpen to get breaks here and there. You are getting them regular work, and you are avoiding some fallow periods where they are not getting work because the top pitchers are eating up innings. Overall, the general concept is to stagger the pitchers by the innings they will reasonably provide instead of just lining them up without any concept on the impact it will have on the bullpen and staff as a whole.
Hopefully, that means a better rested Edwin Diaz. It could mean less of a need to rely on Seth Lugo for multiple innings when he returns. It could mean not needing to have the Triple-A to MLB shuttle for pitchers like Drew Smith. Instead, pitchers are put in a position where they get regular rest and work. That should help them succeed, and it should help prevent them from blowing games for deGrom.
This is normally the time of the year we see the New York Mets experience some sort of injury which significantly impacts their ability to win the division. That is part of the reason why everyone was bracing themselves over the Carlos Carrasco news.
It appears Carrasco had a bit of a setback in his preparation for the season. He has been shut down for a few days due to a sore pitching elbow.
In days past, this was a call for despair. Jeff Wilpon would be playing doctor, and Mets fandom would be using gallows humor suggesting Ray Ramirez was fitting him for a walking boot. This year, at least with respect to Carrasco, we’re not at that point.
Luis Rojas said Carlos Carrasco’s elbow soreeness from the live BP is something Carrasco has experienced before at this point of spring. That’s why the Mets aren’t concerned.
“He made it sound like it’s something he’s dealt with in the past,” Rojas said.
— Justin Toscano (@JustinCToscano) March 10, 2021
This is part of Carrasco’s preparation for the season. In fact, during Spring Training roughly a year ago, Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona said, “Every spring after his first outing, he gets mild elbow inflammation. I would call it more maintenance than anything.” (Mandy Bell, MLB.com).
If this is just what Carrasco deals with at this point in the Spring, then nothing is out of the normal. He deals with the soreness and gets back to pitching.
Last year, that led to excellent results. In 12 starts, he was 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and a 10.9 K/9. If that’s where this sore elbow is heading, the Mets are in phenomenal shape.
If not, and Carrasco is truly injured, well, the Mets are actually prepared for that. One of the losers of the fifth starter competition can slot in to take his space for a short period.
Certainly, the Mets would be in good shape having to start at least two of Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, or Jordan Yamamoto. Keep in mind these pitchers are only stemming the tide for when Noah Syndergaard can return.
In any event, the Mets are well positioned to withstand a severe Carrasco injury. That’s even if this is a severe injury. Early indications are he’s not really hurt.