Noah Syndergaard

Simply Wild: Syndergaard/Bumgarner Was Every Bit Smoltz/Morris Was

Do you remember who got the game winning hit in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series?  It is one thing that is not often discussed because Jack Morris pitched a game so great that people cannot shake the idea that he should be a Hall of Famer.  In the other dugout was a young right-hander named John Smoltz who matched Morris pitch for pitch.  There were pivotal plays in that game you can point to as to why the Twins ultimately won.  However, the biggest reason was Morris was able to go the distance and the young Smoltz was only able to go 7.1 innings.

Last night wasn’t the World Series.  However, it was a winner-take-all game featuring just a tremendous pitching match-up.  The Giants had the grizzled veteran, Madison Bumgarner, who has laid claim to the best active postseason pitcher, if not all time.  The Mets were sending out Noah Syndergaard, who throws harder than anyone in baseball and is coming off a Cy Young caliber award season.   Simply put, you do not get better than this.

Bumgarner and Syndergaard were even more dominant than you would’ve thought they could be.  Combined, the two aces threw 227 pitches.  Only six of those pitches would result in base hits.  The two would combine for 16 strikeouts with just five walks.  No one would reach third base against them let alone score a run.  In July, this is a game that is game you would call an instant classic.  In the postseason, this is a game for the ages.

In the end, what did the Mets in was the fact Syndergaard was only able to go seven, and the Mets didn’t take advantage of their chances to score off Bumgarner.

The best chance came in the fifth when T.J. Rivera hit a leadoff double.  After a Jay Bruce strikeout, T.J. was quickly erased when Rene Rivera hit a grounder to the shortstop Brandon Crawford.  Being the Gold Glover and smart baseball player he was, Crawford caught T.J. straying just a little too far off second.  T.J. did alleviate some of the gaffe by forcing a run down that allowed Rene to get to second.  Ultimately, it didn’t matter as James Loney was intentionally walked, and then Syndergaard struck out to end not just the inning, but also the Mets only real threat of the game.

It was important to cash in there as no one was scoring off these pitchers today.  Syndergaard had a no-hitter going for 5.2 innings until Denard Span hit a single up the middle.  Span would try to turn this into a rally by stealing second (he was caught by Rivera earlier in the game), but it didn’t matter as Curtis Granderson turned into Endy Chavez for one play:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCTzWPOp6Ic

As we would find out later in the game, Endy Chavez was the right analogy.

Overall, the Giants could do nothing against Syndergaard.  He would pitch seven innings allowing just two hits while walking three.  He just dominated the Giants lineup.  Perhaps the best evidence of this is his 10 strikeouts on the night.

The turning point in the game was Syndergaard getting lifted.  It was completely the right move, and there should be no one second guessing it.  By that point, he had thrown 108 pitches, and he started to look gassed as he put the Giants to rest.

With Syndergaard out of the game, the Giants bats seemed to awaken.  Conor Gillaspie (more on him in a minute) greeted Addison Reed with a leadoff single.  After a Bumgarner sacrifice bunt, the Giants had a runner in scoring position with the top of their lineup coming up.  Reed would get Span to pop out for the second out setting the stage for a battle with Brandon Belt.  Reed really got squeezed in this at-bat with him throwing two or three clear strikes that were just not called.  Not only was Reed a bit flummoxed, but Rene seemed as if he was as well.  On the very next pitch, Reed got one over that Rene just missed (by the way the home plate umpire missed it too as it should have been called a strike).

This sent runners to second and third.  The Mets made the obvious choice there to intentionally walk Buster Posey to get to Hunter PenceThere was an ominous tone to the inning with the umpire missing strike calls, and the Giants seemingly gaining confidence with Syndergaard out of the game.  Reed then showed the world why he was the best relief pitcher in the National League this season by striking out Pence to keep the game tied up at 0-0.

After another feckless turn at the plate, the Mets brought in Jeurys Familia

He was in trouble immediately.  Crawford lined an opposite field double.  On the play, Yoenis Cespedes didn’t run hard after it.  If he was completely healthy, he has the speed to cut that ball off and keep Crawford at first.  What we don’t know is how healthy that leg is or whether or not he has that extra gear to cut that ball off.  What we do know if that he didn’t even try to do it.  With Crawford on second, the Giants had the exact situation the Mets squandered in the fifth inning.

Despite Angel Pagan trying to give himself up, Familia was having issues throwing strikes to him.  Many of his pitches landed short of home plate.  Still, Familia battled back into the at-bat, and after Pagan was unable to get the bunt down, Familia struck him out.  Familia then had similar issues with Joe Panik eventually walking him despite being 2-2 on him.  This set the stage for Gillaspie to have his Gene Larkin moment:

For what it’s worth, it was Alejandro Pena that gave up the walk-off hit to Larkin.  The Braves had obtained Pena from the Mets and made him the closer in the stretch drive.

Given Granderson’s catch earlier in the game, you could also refer to this as Gillaspie’s Yadier Molina moment.  Older Mets fans will call this the Mike Scioscia moment.

This was a crushing blow, not just because it gave the Giants a 3-0 lead, but also because it allowed Bruce Bochy to keep Bumgarner in the game instead of going to a bullpen the Mets were desperate to get into all game long.  Bumgarner came out in the ninth and made quick work of Cespedes, Granderson, and T.J.

This would be Bumgarner’s second complete game shutout on the road in the Wild Card Game.  He showed the Mets and the entire world why he is the best big game pitcher in all of baseball.  Oddly enough, he had been bested by the Mets young ace, Syndergaard.  While Syndergaard might’ve bested him, Bumgarner outlasted him.  Ultimately, that is why the Giants are going to Chicago and why the Mets season is over.

If you’re not a Mets fan, this has to be one of the best baseball games you have ever seen in your life.  If you are a Mets fan, you walk away taking stock in the fact that Syndergaard had the game of his life at a time when the Mets needed him most.  This year, Syndergaard didn’t just establish himself as the Mets ace; he established himself as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.  Last night, he took that a step further by announcing he’s a big game pitcher that’s every bit as good as Bumgarner.  In what has been a tough end to the season, Syndergaard gives you hope for the future.

Reasons to Believe the Mets Will Win the Wild Card Game

Noah Syndergaard

Yoenis Cespedes

Asdrubal Cabrera

Curtis Granderson

 

T.J. Rivera

Jay Bruce

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu1toI7woD4

Alejandro De Aza

Rene Rivera

Jose Reyes

James Loney

Lucas Duda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_42D7hjW-1U

Kelly Johnson

Travis d’Arnaud

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFgXQdYQna0

Michael Conforto

Juan Lagares

Jerry Blevins

Fernando Salas

Addison Reed

Jeurys Familia

Oh, and in case, you still think winning the Wild Card Game is impossible, there’s Bartolo Colon to show you nothing is impossible:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzLERV9l9Vs

Josh Edgin & Robert Gsellman on the Wild Card Game Roster; Lucas Duda, Seth Lugo, Josh Smoker Left Off

The New York Mets have announced their Wild Card Game Roster for tonight’s winner-take-all game tonight at Citi Field

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

There were a few surprises on this roster. The one that immediately stands out is the Mets not carrying Lucas Duda on the roster. In a short period of time, Duda has gone from in the conversation to starting at first base tonight to not even being on the roster. His will be a big bat the Mets will miss for a late inning pinch hitting opportunity.

The next surprise was the Mets carrying Gsellman over Seth Lugo. While Gsellman has been the hotter pitcher over the past couple of starts, Gsellman does not have the experience Lugo has coming out of the bullpen.

The biggest surprise was the Mets carrying Edgin over Josh Smoker. This season, Smoker has struck out 14.7 batters per nine, and he has gotten the Mets out of a few tough jams. Edgin, on the other hand, has struggled this season due in large part to him not fully regaining his velocity after Tommy John surgery. However, despite the surprise, there is some justification for the decision.

First, both Smoker and Edgin are one inning pitchers. Each time Terry Collins has tried to push Smoker past one inning of work, he has allowed a second home run. With them both being one inning pitchers, the Mets most likely sought to use the pitcher who matches up better against the Giants. Given the Giants have many left-handed batters, Edgin seems to be the better choice. This season, lefties are hitting .235/.300/.235 off of Edgin as opposed to .360/.448/.600 off of Smoker.

Overall, the hope is that the Mets don’t have to use Edgin or worry about leaving Smoker off the roster. First and foremost, Blevins is going to be the LOOGY in the big spot, and Robleshas reverse splits. Additionally, the Mets 7-8-9- combination of Salas-Reed-Familia pitch just as well against lefties as they do to righties. In the end, so long as Syndergaard and the back end of the bullpen do their job, as we all expect they will do, the Edgin/Smoker decision will not amount to much.

The Road to the Pennant Begins at Citi Field

For the first time in their history, the Mets can defend their pennant in the postseason. Better yet, the Mets get to defend their National League crown on their own turf.

The Mets are sending their ace Noah Syndergaard to the mound. Bear in mind, Syndergaard is not the ace by default. From the minute Syndergaard started throwing 95 MPH sliders to accompany his 100 MPH fastball, he was fast on his way to becoming the staff ace regardless of the injuries to Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. In the 2016 season, Syndergaard led the major leauges in FIP while also allowing the fewest home runs per nine innings. He also finished .001 behind Max Scherzer for the best K/BB ratio in the National League. All told, even with the every other year narrative and Madison Bumgarner‘s postseason history, the Mets actually have the starting pitching advantage.

That advantage gets amplified when you consider the Giants just do not hit Syndergaard. As a team, the Giants are batting .170/.241/.226 with just one home run against Syndergaard. The Giants projected starting lineup is just 8-44 against Syndergaard with a home run and nine strikeouts. So long as Syndergard goes out there and pitches against the Giants batters like he has done in his short career, he is going to give the Mets every chance to beat Bumgarner and the Giants.

The Mets have a chance to beat Bumgarner too. The first three batters in the Mets lineup, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, have each hit Bumgarner well. Towards the bottom of the lineup, both Riveras, T.J. Rivera and Rene Rivera, have had success in the one game they have faced Bumgarner. This is a big reason why the Mets were able to score four runs off Bumgarner in just five innings. With Syndergaard on the mound, and Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to follow, the Mets are not going to need as many runs this go round against Bumgarner.

Speaking of the bullpen, there has been no better tandem to close out a game than Reed and Familia. On the opposite side of the ledger, the Giants blew the most saves in all of baseball. They came just short of the all-time single season blown saves record. The Giants still don’t know who their closer will be this postseason. If it comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Mets definitively have the better pen.

Tonight should be baseball at its best. You’re going to see two of the best pitchers in baseball, both of who have had success in the postseason, squaring off in a winner-take-all game. Given the Mets having home field, and the numbers at play, you have to like the Mets chances tonight.

Lets Go Mets!

Noah Syndergaard Dominates the Giants Lineup

In Wednesday’s Wild Card Game, Noah Syndergaard will have to be at his best because Madison Bumgarner is not only a great postseason pitcher, but he is also great against the Mets.  In Bumgarner’s career, he has made six starts against the Mets going 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.025 WHIP. In four starts at Citi Field, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 0.828 WHIP.

The only time Syndergaard and Bumgarner have gone head-to-head was on May 1st of this year in a matchup that was best remember by Mets fans as the day Michael Conforto began struggling.  Bumgarner would get the better of that matchup earning the win over Syndergaard, who struggled in the wet weather.  In Syndergaard’s career, he has made three starts against the Giants going 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.119 WHIP.  He’s going to have to be better than that if the Mets are going to have a chance to win the Wild Card Game.  Simply put, Syndergaard is going to have to be dominant against a Giants 40 man roster he has fared pretty well against in his career:

Presumed Starting Lineup:

  1. Denard Span 0-6, K
  2. Brandon Belt 0-6, RBI, 3 BB, 3 K
  3. Buster Posey 3-6, K
  4. Hunter Pence 1-5, HR, 2 RBI, K
  5. Brandon Crawford 2-8, K
  6. Angel Pagan 0-5, RBI, BB, K
  7. Joe Panik 2-6
  8. Conor Gillaspie – never faced
  9. Madison Bumgarner 0-2, K

Bench

Never Faced (2016 v. RHP):

Looking over the numbers, the only batter that scares you facing Syndergaard is Posey.  Fact is, no matter what the numbers were, you were going to be scared of him no matter what.  Other than Posey, and one bat pitch to Pence, Syndergaard has completely dominated this Giants team.  Therefore, if Syndergaard goes out there and pitches against the Giants players like he always does, the Mets stand to have an excellent chance of outlasting Bumgarner and winning the Wild Card Game.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

The Mets Have a Chance Against Madison Bumgarner

As we head to the Wild Card Game, we already know that we are going to see an epic pitching matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard.  Presumably, this game is going to be won and lost on which pitcher blinks first and allows a run.  It is going to be a daunting task for both offenses.

In Bumgarner’s career, he has made six starts against the Mets going 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.025 WHIP.  In four starts at Citi Field, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 0.828 WHIP.  Bumgarner faced the Mets twice this year with very different results.

On a May 1st game at Citi Field, Bumgarner earned the win pitching six shutout innings allowing six hits and three walks while striking out seven.  On an August 18th game at AT&T Park, in what was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel against Jacob deGrom, both pitchers struggled.  Bumgarner still got the win despite allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks with six strikeouts over just five innings.

With that in mind, looking at the recent history, the Mets do have something to build their confidence against Bumgarner as they head into Wednesday’s game.  There’s reason for confidence because the healthy Mets on the 40 man roster have actually fared well against Bumgarner:

Presumable Starting Lineup

  1. Jose Reyes 3-9
  2. Asdrubal Cabrera 3-7, 2 RBI, K
  3. Yoenis Cespedes 3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB, 3 K
  4. Curtis Granderson 0-3, BB, K
  5. Jay Bruce 3-23, HR, 4 RBI, 6 K
  6. T.J. Rivera 2-3
  7. Lucas Duda 0-1
  8. Rene Rivera 2-3, 2B, HR, 5 RBI
  9. Noah Syndergaard 0-2, K

Bench:

Have Never Faced Bumgarner (2016 against LHP):

Look, anytime you face Bumgarner in an elimination game, you should not feel comfortable.  In the 2014 Wild Card Game, Bumgarner pitched a complete game, four hit, one walk, 10 strikeout shutout.  In Game 7 of the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner came out of the bullpen on two days rest to throw five shutout innings to give the Giants their third World Series title in five years.

Once again, this is an even numbered year, and the Giants are once again sending Bumgarner out to the mound to begin the run to another World Series.  Standing in his way is 60’6″ postseason Syndergaard and a collection of Mets bats that have hit him well.  The Mets have a good chance to win this game.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.

Mets Don’t Go Back to the Future

With the addition of John Olerud and the emergence of Rick Reed, the 1997 Mets made a tremendous leap forward going 88-74 to be a factor in the Wild Card race.  However, they would eventually lose out to a Florida Marlins team that was literally built to win the World Series that one season.

After that season, the Marlins disbanded because, as we were first learning out, that’s what the Marlins do when they win.  The Mets were one of the main beneficiaries of the the offseason sell-off with them obtaining Al Leiter and Dennis Cook.  Then the real boon came when the Marlins had swung a deal with the Dodgers to obtain Mike Piazza to unload a bunch of big contracts.  With the Mets struggling, due in large part to Todd Hundley‘s elbow injury, the Mets moved quickly and added Piazza.  With a week left in the season, the Mets won to go to 88-68.  All the Mets needed to do in the final week of the season was to win one more game to at least force a playoff with the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs for the Wild Card.  They didn’t.  Once again, finishing the year 88-74 was not good enough for the Wild Card.

Entering the final game of the 2016 season, with the Mets having already clinched the Wild Card, the Mets needed just one more win to finish the year at 88-74.

There was a version of me 20 years younger that wanted to see the Mets get that win to erase some of the bad feelings that an 88-74 record created.  It was going to be a difficult task because the Mets objective wasn’t to win this game.  The sole objective was to just get through it with everybody healthy so as not to compromise the team for the winner-take-all Wild Card Game this Wednesday at Citi Field.

For starters, it was Gabriel Ynoa who took the mound instead of Noah Syndergaard. Terry Collins would also give an at-bat a piece to Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis CespedesJay Bruce would get two.  T.J. Rivera, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera, and Travis d’Arnaud would not play.  This was a full-on keep people fresh and don’t get anyone injured operation.

Ynoa would acquit himself well even if he couldn’t go five.  He would only throw 52 pitches in 4.2 innings allowing five hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with two strikeouts.  Collins would lift him for Jerry Blevins, who is probably the one Mets reliever who could’ve used some work, to get out of the fifth.  At that point, the Phillies were only up 1-0 on a third inning Maikel Franco RBI single.

The Mets would eventually go ahead in this game making the 88-74 season a reality.  In the sixth, Matt Reynolds doubled, and he would score on an Alejandro De Aza RBI singles.  In the seventh, Kelly Johnson hit a leadoff single, and he would score on a Kevin Plawecki two out RBI double.

The lead would not last long as the Phillies went to work against Erik Goeddel in the bottom of the seventh.  After an Andres Blanco single, an Aaron Altherr walk, and a Lucas Duda throwing error, the Phillies loaded the bases with no outs.  Cesar Hernandez brought home the first two runs on an RBI single, and then Jimmy Paredes knocked in the third run of the inning with a sacrifice fly.  That Paerdes sacrifice fly was an extra base hit if anyone other than Juan Lagares was manning center field.  Lagares once again reminded everyone that he is the best fielding center fielder in baseball, and that if he can at least manage one at-bat per game, he needs to be on the postseason roster.

The Phillies then added a run in the eighth off Jim Henderson to make the game 5-2.  That would be the final score of a game where both teams reached their primary objective.  The Phillies were able to provide a fitting send-off for Ryan Howard removing him from the game in the eighth so he could leave to a standing ovation.  The Mets just got through the game without suffering any injuries, and also got much needed reps for Duda and Lagares.

The Mets weren’t able to get that final win to erase the angst of the past when 88 wins just wasn’t good enough for the postseason.  Ironically, 87 was good enough this year.  With those 87 wins, the Mets put the capper on a mostly frustrating season.  However, in the end, they were able to go to make consecutive postseason appearances for only the second time in their history.  When viewed through that prism, this was a successful and enjoyable season.

That Was Wild 

Baseball is funny. There was about a four month stretch where watching Mets baseball was a tedious and frustrating exercise. It was about as painful as watching Yoenis Cespedes try to play on an injured quad. 

Speaking of pain, seemingly everyone got hurt. Of all the people in the Opening Day lineup, only Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto didn’t wind up on the disabled list at some point. With Conforto making two trips to AAA, that left Granderson as the only Met starter available all season. 

We saw something similar last year.  However, we saw last year that a team can make it to the postseason with some big trade deadline moves, a weak schedule to finish the season, and tremendous pitching. 

Well, the trade deadline wasn’t the boon it was last year. Jay Bruce would struggle mightily until the last week of the season. 

The starting pitching we all expected wasn’t there. Matt Harvey was never healthy and needed season ending surgery. Zack Wheeler had multiple setbacks during his Tommy John rehab, and he wouldn’t pitch this year. Both Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom pitched with injuries until they couldn’t anymore. Both had season ending surgeries. 

Speaking of season ending surgeries, the Mets also lost David Wright to cervical fusion surgery and Neil Walker to discectomy. Speaking of bad backs, Lucas Duda was nowhere to be found for most of the year with him suffering a stress fracture in his back. 

Still, the Mets made it back to the postseason. They did take advantage of that weak season ending schedule. Since August 20th, the Mets have the best record in baseball. How did we get here?

Well, Noah Syndergaard and his 95 MPH slider had a Cy Young caliber season. Bartolo Colon had his best season as a Met. Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia were the most dominant 8-9 combination in all of baseball. Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman became not only unlikely contributors, but also reliable starters in the stretch run. 

Offensively, Asdrubal Cabrera became the best hitter in all of baseball the final month of the season. Cespedes got healthy, and Granderson regained his stroke. Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson combined to reasonably replicate Walker’s production until Flores got hurt and Johnson regressed. At that point, T.J. Rivera took complete advantage of the opportunity with the 27 year old undrafted rookie playing solid defense and spraying line drives all over the field. And yes, Jose Reyes returned to the Mets after his domestic violence issues to play better than anyone could’ve reasonably expected. 

That coupled with the Giants and Cardinals playing sub .500 ball, the Mets had their 1973 window, and the Mets took full advantage. All they needed to do was win one more game. 

Fittingly, Colon got the start (pun intended). He’d get a 2-0 lead off a pair of RBI singles from Rivera and Reyes. As he has seemingly done all year, Reyes scored Travis d’Arnaud from second. As usual, it was a questionable send by Tim Teufel as the ball beat d’Arnaud to the plate. Fortunately, the throw was to the first base side of the plate, and d’Arnaud made a nifty slide to just avoid the tag. 

That’s when ghost of Phillies past Ryan Howard tried to put a damper on the party by hitting a game tying two run home run. Up until the Howard home run, he was cruising and showing no ill effects from his tendon injury. 

In the sixth, James Loney would do his best Dave Magadan impression:

He also had a Cabrera impression with an impressive bat flip. 

Of course, Cabrera would be heard from with an RBI single in the ninth. Cespedes would also be heard from, but in a completely different way altogether:

Reed and Familia locked down the eighth and ninth inning for the 51st time this season, which is by far the most in the majors. 

The last out was recorded by Conforto making a sliding catch in left. The last time a left fielder with the number 30 caught the clinching out was Cliff Floyd in 2006.  Hopefully, these Mets can have a long playoff run like that team. Honestly though, we’re hoping for more than that. 

With that, the 2016 Mets completed their 1973 Mets regular season run. Now comes the hard part. That begins Wednesday with Syndergaard taking the mound against either the Giants or Cardinals in the winner take all Wild Card Game. 

Amazin’ Metscast Appearance 

On this episode of the Amazing Metscast, I discuss Jose FernandezAsdrubal CabreraJay Bruce, Noah Syndergaard and more. 

You can listen by clicking here

Happy Wild Card Clinching Day!

Projected Wild Card Game Roster

One of the quirks of the Wild Card Game is a team is able to create a standalone 25 man roster just for that game.  After the completion of the Wild Card Game, the winning team is able to reset its roster for the Division Series.  With that in mind, when the Mets construct their roster, they really have no need to carry extra starting pitchers.  Instead, they can carry an extra reliever or two, and they can add a couple of bats on the bench for pinch hitting and running opportunities.  With that in mind, here is how I would construct the roster.

Catchers (2)Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera

With the Wild Card Game starting pitcher likely to be either Syndergaard or Lugo, it seems that Rivera will be Terry Collins choice as the starting catcher.  If the Mets fall behind early, he may very well go to d’Arnaud for offense.  However, for now, Rivera seems the likely starter.

First Base (2) – Lucas Duda and James Loney

The only variable we don’t know right now is whether Duda can play everyday during a postseason run.  However, we have seen him play effectively here and there as he gets more playing time.  If Duda is ready to go, he has to start.  If not, Loney can start with Duda being the power bat off the bench.  If Duda does start, Loney is there for insurance for Duda’s back, and he can hit right-handed pitching reaosnably well in the event the Mets need an extra pinch hitter.

Second Base (2) – Kelly Johnson and T.J. Rivera

If the Mets face the Giants and Madison Bumgarner, it is likely Rivera gets the start.  If the Mets face the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez, it is likely Johnson gets the start.  No matter which one gets the start, we know that the other one will be the best pinch hitting option when the Mets need a bit hit.

Third Base (1)Jose Reyes

At this point, barring something unusual happening, Reyes is the team’s everyday third baseman and leadoff hitter.  He also serves as a backup shortstop in the event something happens to Cabrera

Shortstop (1) – Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is the best hitter in the major leagues during the month of September, and while he has two injured knees, he is able to effectively handle all the balls that come within the vicinity of shortstop.

Outfield – (5) Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Alejandro De Aza, Curtis Granderson

Given how Bruce’s bat has come alive the past few games and with the way Conforto has been adapting to being a pinch hitter, both players should find themselves on the Wild Card Game roster.  What will be curious is whether it is Bruce or De Aza that finds themselves in the outfield with Cespedes and Granderson.  In a winner-take-all situation, Collins just might be inclined to go with the defense over the bat.

Starting Pitchers (3) – Bartolo Colon, Seth Lugo, and Noah Syndergaard

Whether or not Syndergaard pitches on Sunday, he has to be on the roster.  You cannot go down without the ability to throw your best pitcher, even if it is for one inning.  Same goes for your second best pitcher, which is why Colon should be on the roster.  As for Lugo, he should make the roster because: 1) he has experience as a short reliever; and 2) it is his turn in the rotation, so he can give you as many innings as you need.

Bullpen (5) – Jerry Blevins, Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Fernando Salas and Josh Smoker

If things go to plan, it is likely the Mets are not going to need more than Reed and Familia.  If the starter is able to go six, Reed can pitch the seventh and Familia can get the final two innings like he did in the NLDS clincher last year.  In the event things don’t go as smoothly, this bullpen can effectively mix and match.  Smoker seems like a given to make the roster because it gives the Mets an extra lefty in the pen, one with reverse splits, that can get a big strikeout when the Mets are in a jam.

Bubble –

If the Mets were to go with this group of players, and it seems likely they would that leaves the team with 22 players on the roster with decisions to make for the final four spots.  Here is a case for each of the potential bubble players:

Position Players

UT Eric Campbell  – As we saw when the Mets faced Adam Conley and the Marlins, Collins has fallen back in the habit of using Campbell as his right-handed first baseman.  In the event the Mets face the Giants, Campbell may well find himself getting a postseason start.  If not, he has shown the ability to be a very effective pinch hitter in tight games.

UT Ty KellyCollins has liked using as a pinch runner towards the back-end of the season.  Even though he is much better hitting right-handed in his short major league career, Kelly’s switch hitting ability does have some usefulness in neutralizing an opposing manager’s ability to go to a lefty/righty in a big spot for multiple outs.

CF Juan LagaresLagares just started to swing the bat, but we still don’t know if he can do it multiple times in a game if necessary.  However, with the Mets not needing to carry as many pitchers, Lagares could be kept on the roster to bunt, pinch run, and play defense in the late innings.

C Kevin Plawecki – Plawecki has not done much of anything offensively this season.  However, he remains a good defensive catcher, and his presence on the team would permit Collins to be aggressive in bringing in d’Arnaud for offense with full knowledge that the Mets have other catcher on the bench.

SS Matt ReynoldsEspecially given Cabrera’s injuries further limiting his range, Reynolds could very well be the Mets best defensive shortstop.  Should Cabrera have to leave the game with an injury, Reynolds could step right in defensively.  Additionally, in the event Collins needs to start double switching people in and out of the game to keep a pitcher in longer, Reynolds’ ability to competently play second, third, short, and left make him a versatile and valuable bench piece.

Bullpen

LHP Josh Edgin – His chances of making the roster increase if the Mets play the Giants given the presence of Denard Span and Brandon Belt.  In that event, the Mets may want that one extra lefty to have multiple matchup opportunities.  Against the Cardinals, the need for the extra left-hander won’t be as great.

RHP Erik GoeddelEven if it has been mostly in mop-up duty, Goeddel has pitched much better in September than he has all season.  Unlike Edgin or Henderson (below), Goedell has also shown the ability to go multiple innings lately thereby increasing his usefulness out of the pen.

RHP Robert Gsellman – Gsellman could make the team as a long reliever with Collins then using Lugo as a one inning reliever who can let it fly for one or two innings.  Additionally, with Gsellman’s sinker, Collins could elect to go with him in a situation in which the Mets need to get a double play.

RHP Jim HendersonHenderson hasn’t been the same since coming back from the disabled list.  With that said, he’s still striking out 10.6 per nine, and so far this month, he has seven scoreless appearances.  More than any of the above, he has the biggest upside.  However, when he loses with 95+ MPH fastball, and it happens without a moment’s notice, he’s going to get hit around.

Prediction

Who the Mets carry for the final three spots will be largely based upon the opponent.  In the event that the Mets face the Giants, the odds of Campbell and Edgin making the roster go up significantly.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, who have multiple effective lefties out of the pen, someone like Kelly with his switch hitting ability could see his chances of making the roster increase.

Overall, considering how the Mets have handled the catching situation late in the season, the Mets should probably carry Plawecki as a third catcher.  Doing so will permit Collins to switch out Rivera for d’Arnaud if the Mets fall behind early or if the Mets need a right-handed pinch hitter.

If the Mets face the Giants, it is likely that Campbell will make the roster as the starting first baseman.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the Mets will then likely carry Kelly as a pinch runner/pinch hitter or Reynolds.  Given how the concerns over Cabrera’s knees, and the need to double switch late in games, and because Reynolds has some extra pop in his bat than Kelly, Reynolds should be the choice.

The last spot becomes dicey.  As the Mets bullpen is constituted, the team has multiple pitchers who can go multiple innings thereby negating the need to carry an eighth reliever.  This choice here will likely be and should be opponent driven.  If the Mets face the Giants, Edgin should be the choice so the Mets can get multiple lefty/lefty matchups late in games.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the team should probably carry both Reynolds and Kelly.  This would help the Mets neutralize the Cardinals unleashing their left-handed relievers against the Mets late in the game.

Of course, if Lagares is truly healthy enough to swing the bat, as he has done the past few games, he definitely needs to be on the roster.  He had a good postseason last year, and he’s the team’s best defensive outfielder.

There are a number of interesting decisions ahead, and ultimately it will depend on the opponent and whether the Cardinals keep enough heat on the Giants so Bumgarner had to pitch on Sunday.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online