Noah Syndergaard

Power Rankings Show How Underrated Mets Are

Right now, the New York Mets are 12-2, which is the best record in the National League, and they are a half-game behind the 13-2 Boston Red Sox for the best record in baseball.

In getting to that record, the Mets have swept an early World Series favorite Washington Nationals on the road, and they have taken four of six from the Cardinals and Brewers, two teams who are expected to be in the mix for a postseason spot this year.

The Mets pitching staff has three starting pitchers in Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard who have previously had Top 10 Cy Young finishes.  Two of those three are pitching well.

The team also has Jeurys Familia who is a former All Star and MLB saves leader, who, right now, is the best reliever in all of baseball.

The group, surrounded by a surprisingly well performing bullpen, has an MLB best 2.58 ERA, eight saves, and 15 holds.  They are best in the National League in batting average against, (.204) and WHIP (1.11).  They are also top five in the majors in strikeouts (152).

In MLB’s late and close category, the Mets offense has scored the second most doubles in the majors and the second most runs and RBI in the National League,

With the Mets pitching and clutch hitting, the Mets are fifth in the majors in run differential.

This is a Mets team with a good to great track record.  The team built on pitching is pitching better than anyone.  They are beating good teams.  They are winning games. The result?

ESPN ranks them as the fourth best team in baseball after ranking them ninth.

CBS Sports moved the Mets up two spots from sixth to fourth in their power rankings.

USA Today moved the Mets up one spot to fifth in their rankings.

MLB.com and Bleacher Report have not yet updated their rankings, but they did have the Mets ranked 11th and 10th respectively last week.

At the core of the problem is not matter how well the Mets play and not matter who they beat, no one is buying this team.  Look no further than ESPN’s analysis of the Red Sox and Mets, two teams that got off to identical 12-2 starts:

It took a week, but J.D. Martinez hit his first home run in a Red Sox uniform. He has continued to hit the ball hard, and he and Hanley Ramirez have powered the Red Sox to a 13-2 start. Less happily, a Xander Bogaerts ankle injury interrupted his hot start at the plate; he had delivered nine extra-base hits in nine games.

*  *  *  *  *

The Mets continued their hot start, becoming the 22nd team in the World Series era (since 1903) to start 11-1 or better. Will that start yield postseason success? Of the 21 teams to start 11-1 or better through 12 games before this season, only eight made the postseason, and only three of those won the World Series: the 1955 Dodgers, 1966 Orioles and 1984 Tigers. Of the teams to start that hot in the past 30 seasons, none has even won a playoff series.

Really, it’s fascinating to see how the Red Sox are hitting the ball hard while the Mets are a team in a group that has failed to make the postseason 13 out of 21 times and has not won a postseason series in the past 30 years.

We see the bias, and that’s fine.  Let all of Major League Baseball continue to underestimate this Mets team.  Hopefully, they will continue to do so all the way to the 2018 World Series.

Wilmer Homer Was a Family Affair

Due to a family event, I was unable to use the Mets tickets I had originally purchased for the game.  Considering it was me who scheduled the family event, it was REALLY poor planning on my part, except for one thing . . . .

With the exception of one of my uncles, an uncle who harbors no ill-will towards the National League team, we are all Mets fans.

We are all split on football and hockey.  Generally speaking, we all prefer NCAA basketball to the NBA, with us each having our own colleges we support.

Despite the many differences we have as a family, it is our being Mets fans that bind us.  Perhaps more than the blood itself.

So, when you have a group of us together, if there is a television around, any and all family occasions will eventually turn into us sitting there watching and rooting for the Mets.  Yesterday was no exception.

We talked about what a great and underrated pickup Todd Frazier was when he delivered an RBI single in the first.

While we all agreed we loved Mickey Callaway, we loudly wondered what the (blank) he was thinking pinch hitting for Tomas Nido with an open base and Thor on deck.

This led to a discussion as to what exactly the Mets should be doing about the cdatching situation.  Some wanted J.T. Realmuto.  Others, myself included, wanted the Mets to go with the catcher who would get the most out of this pitching staff.  Regardless, we all debated what the Marlins would want for Realmuto presuming the discussions would start with Justin Dunn and Peter Alonso.

We marveled at just how dominant Noah Syndergaard was with him finally returning to form early this season with his striking out 11.  We also groaned in that sixth inning when the Brewers plated two unearned runs on an Amed Rosario throwing error.

My family had smiles bigger than the one on Brandon Nimmo‘s face when he hit a game tying homer in the bottom of that inning.  All right, almost as big a smile.

We got nervous and held on for dear life as AJ Ramos had one of those heart in your throat innings, and he was not helped by Jose Lobaton. To a man, we agreed wild pitch or not, your catcher has to get that.  Regardless, Ramos got out of the inning with some help from Jerry Blevins.

Surprisingly, no one seemed that nervous about Hansel Robles anymore.  Sure, he may not have been everyone’s first choice, but there was a calm believing he could get the job done. For Robles, that must’ve been a different feeling from past years.

And in my family, we are smart baseball fans, so there was no waiting for Jeurys Familia to lose the game in the ninth.  We’re better than that, and with his stretch, I hope all Mets fans are getting to that point as well.

Finally, like Citi Field and wherever you were, we cheered and celebrated when Wilmer Flores hit the walk off homer.

Did I get to go to the Mets game yesterday?  No, I didn’t.  However, one of the reasons we go to games is to sit in the stands and have a shared experience.  Considering I watched yesterday with my family, and it was bitterly cold yesterday, I think watching it from an Italian restaurant a state away was probably a much better experience.

The next experience will hopefully be the group of us at Citi Field as we look to recreate one of our old traditions.  Hope to see you all there.

Game Notes: Wilmer’s second career walk-off happened against the very same Brewers team he was supposed to be traded to back in 2015.

Great Job Mets Fans

In 2015, the Mets started out on the road, and they came home with a 2-3 record.  Things would change quickly at home with the team reeling off 11 straight wins to improve their record to 13-3.

During that stretch, when the Mets had “only” five wins in a row, the team would have their first Friday evening game of the year.  The fans responded to the palpable buzz surrounding the team in their first home stand by packing it in for that Friday night game.  In total, there would be 38.753 fans at the game.

In 2016, the Mets would have World Series dreams after they had fallen just short to the Kansas City Royals last season.  With the team opening the season on the road against the Royals, and Noah Syndergaard winning the second game featuring a mid 90s slider, the buzz for the team grew louder.

The first Friday game as a day game, and it was the home opener.  With Jacob deGrom on the mound, there would be 44,099 fans in the stands.  By the time the team’s first Friday night game rolled around, it was three weeks later, and the Mets were 14-7.  With Steven Matz on the mound, there was 39,764 fans in the stands to watch the Mets take on the San Francisco Giants.

Last year, the Mets once again entered the season with World Series hopes and dreams.  The team would open the season at home and were 2-1 heading into their first Friday night game of the season.  In Zack Wheeler‘s return after two seasons on the disabled list, there would only be 27,891 fans at the game.

This year, the Mets have looked as good as they ever have.  After an impressive 4-1 homestand to start the season, they went out and swept their first two series on the road to bring the Mets record to 10-1.

With a buzz surrounding this team, the Mets came home last night to their first Friday night game of the season.  The fans responded to the Mets terrific play packing in Citi Field with 34,921 fans at the ballpark creating a great environment.

Was the crowd as big as Friday night crowds in year’s back?  No, but it was a good sized crowd who created a buzz in the ballpark.  Ultimately, that’s a great job by Mets fans, who have once again proven just what a great fan base we all are.  Seeing what last night’s crowd was, I can only imagine the crowds will only get bigger this weekend.

Lets Go Mets!

Five Aces Finally Deal In

The Mets are 9-1, and they are now off to the best start in franchise history.  However, right now, when it comes to the Mets, this isn’t even the biggest news of the season:

Saturday, April 7th at Washington – Steven Matz
Sunday, April 8th at Washington – Matt Harvey
Monday, April 9th at Miami – Noah Syndergaard
Tuesday, April 10th at Miami – Jacob deGrom
Wednesday, April 11th at Miami – Zack Wheeler

Sometime after 7:10 P.M., after the bottom of the first has ended, the dream will finally be realized.  The Five Aces will have finally taken one turn through the rotation. What’s funny about it is the dream was thought to be dead.

In 2015, before Syndergaard and Matz were called up to the majors, Wheeler needed Tommy John surgery.  As a result, this meant the dream, which was still in its infancy, would have to wait a year.

Heading into 2016, the Mets re-signed Bartolo Colon to help allow Wheeler to take his time in his rehab.  He would have a number of setbacks, and he would never pitch in 2016.  That year also saw deGrom, Harvey, and Matz befall season ending injuries themselves.

In 2017, the Mets were once again poised to have them all in the same rotation.  However, Matz would need to begin the season on the disabled list.  Syndergaard didn’t have an MRI and tore his lat.  Harvey and Wheeler would find their way onto the disabled list with stress reactions after they had probably been rushed into the rotation before they were ready.

The progress in 2017 was they at least all made a start in the same season.  That was something Generation K never did.  In 1995, we saw Jason Isringhausen and Bill Pulsipher in the same rotation.  Like with Wheeler, it was discovered Pulsipher needed Tommy John during the ensuing Spring Training.  As a result, this meant it was just Isringhausen and Paul Wilson in the rotation.

In 1997, Isringhausen was the only one to pitch for the Mets with Wilson pitching in the minors with shoulder problems and Pulsipher experiencing depression and complications from Tommy John.  Pulsipher would be the only one to pitch for the Mets in 1998 with Isringhausen hurt and Wilson hurt and in the minors.

In 1998, Pulipsher was the first to go.  He was traded to the Brewers for Mike Kinkade.  In 1999, it was Isringhausen’s turn to go as the Mets thought it better to use him to obtain Billy Taylor rather than use him in the bullpen.

Pulsipher came back to the organization in 2000, and he lost the Spring Training competition for the fifth starter spot to Glendon Rusch.  Both he and Wilson would get traded that season as the Mets sought reinforcements in Lenny Harris, Bubba Trammell, and Rick White to help them win a World Series.

The odd thing about seeing Generation K all being traded away for supporting pieces was they were supposed to be the leading drive towards a World Series.  Overall, they’d never appear in the same rotation, and they would pitch for the Mets in the postseason.

Seeing Generation K’s struggles makes what is happening tonight all the more remarkable.  Not only are we finally seeing these five pitchers in the same rotation, but we have already seen them have the success we once expected from Generation K.  In fact, they’ve been much more successful.

In many ways, seeing Wheeler start tonight is going to slay many demons for the entire Mets organization.

From the start the Mets have had and the seemingly magic tough Mickey Callaway has had, there is a lot more in store for the Mets.  That said, short of David Wright taking the field again, it is going to be hard to envision a more powerful moment that will happen this (regular) season.

Mets Do Enough to Beat Marlins

After a huge sweep of the Nationals, Mickey Callaway put it to his veterans to see if the veterans wanted the day off after landing in Miami at 5 A.M.  In a promising sign for the season, the Mets players were not overlooking the Marlins, and they all wanted to get right back out there.

Certainly, after all the excitement in Washington, this series was going to be a bit of a let-down. The real challenge was not letting this become a trap series.  Fortunately for the Mets, they had Noah Syndergaard on the mound, which always gives the Mets a big advantage.

The one issue is Thor hasn’t quite been Thor this season.  Even in his Opening Day start when he struck out 10, he allowed four runs.  He didn’t see the fifth inning in his second start, and the early season troubles carried forward into tonight.

His troubles started in the fifth when Amed Rosario didn’t get his glove down on a Brian Anderson grounder.  With Michael Conforto playing deep in an expansive ToMarlins Park outfield that became a two base error.  After two quick outs, Syndergaard issued back-to-back two out walks to Bryan Holaday and Tomas Telis.  This led to a Miguel Rojas RBI single.

In the sixth, Anderson got to Syndergaard again doubling home Starlin Castro, who had led off the inning with a single.  Syndergaard would get out of the inning before allowing any further damage and with the Mets still having a lead.

His final line was 6.0 innings, five hits, two runs, one earned, two walks, and five strikeouts.  No, there is nothing wrong with that start, and with Syndergaard pumping in 94 MPH sliders, there wasn’t anything wrong with his stuff.  However, it just seems like something is just off.  And yet despite, that he got the win.

The Mets would score four runs even with the offense sputtering a bit against Jose Urena and the rest of the Marlins staff.  Despite getting the leadoff runner on in five of the nine innings and the team drawing five walks, they could only push four runs across home plate.  Fortunately, that was plenty.

Rosario got the first rally started with a second inning with a Todd Frazier lead-off walk.  He’d come home to score after ensuing singles from Asdrubal Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez.  The damage might’ve been greater, but Kevin Plawecki hit into a double play.  Cabrera scored on the play giving the Mets a 2-0 lead.

That lead grew to 3-0 in the third on a rally started by a long Rosario double that nearly went out to deep center.  For a moment, it appeared he wasn’t going to score after a Conforto flyout and a Yoenis Cespedes strikeout. Rosario still came to score on a Jay Bruce RBI single.

For his part, Cespedes, who is battling the flu had a tough game at the plate.  He was 0-4 with three strikeouts leaving five Mets on base.  Even with that, he did make a great throw in the outfield:

https://twitter.com/HornikGSN/status/983494562051215360

Really, the Mets should have blown the game open in the seventh.  Gonzalez had a lead-off walk off Junichi Tazawa, and Brandon Nimmo, pinch hitting for Sydnergaard, reached on a Justin Bour throwing error.  Rosario came up and brought home Gonzalez with the one out RBI single to give the Mets a 4-2 lead.

Conforto would then walk to load the bases, but no further damage would be done as Cespedes and Bruce struck out to end the inning.

There are games where the inability to tack on runs comes back to bite you.  With the way the Mets bullpen is pitching this year, today wasn’t that day.

Hansel Robles flirted with trouble in the seventh, but he got out of the inning unscathed.  Jerry Blevins and AJ Ramos combined for a scorless eighth, and Jeurys Familia recorded his sixth save of the season.

It wasn’t an easy save for Familia.  Derek Dietrich hit a double just past the outstretched glove of Bruce to put runners on second and third with one out.  With the tying runs in scoring position, Familia responded by striking out Rojas and Castro to end the game.

The Mets had a tough task ahead of them having to face a bad Marlins team.  Overall, the Mets did what good teams do – they did what they needed to do to beat the bad team.

Game Notes: Juan Lagares did not enter the game for defense in the ninth.  This is the third time in Mets history they started the season 8-1.  In 1985, the Mets won 98 games and missed the postseason. In 2006, they won 97 games en route to winning the NL East.

Mets Blogger Roundtable: Which Unwritten Rules Should Be Abolished?

Well, the baseball season was less than a week old before we got our first violation of the unwritten rules of baseball.  Down 7-0 and with one out in the ninth, Baltimore Orioles catcher Chance Sisco had the audacity to bunt against the shift to get on base.  Trying to win a game where they were getting blown out was taken as an affront by Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, who said, “When they didn’t hold our runner on [earlier in the blowout], they conceded to the fact they didn’t want us to steal, so we didn’t steal.  We could have very easily stolen and put up more runs, so therefore in return, you don’t bunt. That’s what everybody is missing in this whole thing.”  (ESPN)

Apparently, everyone is missing what he was saying because Dozier has been roundly mocked, but his rant does bring up another round of discussion on the unwritten rules of baseball.  Seemingly, there is a chasm among fans whether these rules should be followed.  No matter what side of the fence you are on, you are bound to have an unwritten rule or two you particularly don’t like.

So in the spirit of Dozier inventing unwritten rules, the Mets Blogger Roundtable now tackles the subject of which unwritten rules we want to see abolished:

Michael Baron (MLB)

Celebrations have become part of the fabric of the game, like it or not. And as long as the sport continues to celebrate these celebrations, be it during their broadcasts or in social media, we have to except that as an adaptation to the game. Personally, there are far bigger issues with the game than what people consider over-the-top celebrations.

Roger Cormier (Good Fundies & Fangraphs)

Shawn Estes missed Roger Clemens. Estes later homered off of him and nobody seemed to care. Noah Syndergaard got ejected and he didn’t even hit Chase Utley. The unwritten rule that you have to hit a dude because that dude’s teammate plunked a teammate of yours, intentionally or not, is pretty dumb, and the Mets can’t seem to get it right. Also, some of us are not neanderthals. If you want revenge, you do it right. Ruin Chase Utley’s credit. Convince him to try a fake diet that actually makes you fat. Post his postseason stats from the last few seasons on the scoreboard while he’s batting. Recite them over the PA during his batting practice. Spoil his favorite TV shows while you’re at it. Steal his XBox. Sign him up for all of the spam mail. Donate $50,000 to NAMBLA on his behalf and let Reddit do it’s thing. Hitting him once? With a baseball? That’s just lazy.

Mark Healey (Gotham Baseball)

I want more unwritten rules, except what Dozier said; that’s a millennial unwritten rule.

The bat flipping and mic drop antics deserve an up and in dusting.

Joe Maracic (Loud Egg)

The entire keep the celebrations to a minimum after hitting a homer is ridiculous. Let them have some fun and instead of focusing on hitting them at their next at bat, why not just try hitting more homers in return. I think it’s slowly changing to be accepted more, at least among Hispanic players.

Michael Mayer (MMO & MMN)

Celebrating may have changed forms, but let’s not act like this is something that didn’t happen in the past.  I wonder how many time Rickey Henderson got dusted.

It’s ridiculous to head hunt over a celebration.

Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)

The one unwritten rule I find particularly dopey is the one that says swinging on three-and-oh is some sort of affront to the pitcher.

The one unwritten rule that I wish to see enforced is pitchers ought to tip their caps to the fans if they are receiving applause upon leaving the mound. Perhaps it’s been forgotten, perhaps these guys are super-focused, but c’mon. It’s just good manners.

Mets Daddy

The one unwritten rule I never quite understood was you’re not allowed to bunt when the opposing pitcher has a no-hitter going.  Throwing a no-hitter is supposed to be extremely rare and difficult.  Heck, it took the Mets 50 years to get one.  Before Johan Santana‘s, I’ve seen the Mets lose no-hitters in the most excruciating ways possible.

One that immediately comes to mind is how David Cone once lost a no-hitter to what amounted to a swinging bunt.  Sure, the batter attempted to swing rather than bunt.  However, was that oopsie base hit more virtuous than a batter coming to the plate with an idea of what he wanted to do and executing.

As John Sterling would say between self aggrandizing and incoherent in multiple languages home run calls, “That’s baseball, Suzyn.”

In some sense, it is strange a group of people who spend their document writing everything about the Mets down and publishing it on various mediums offer an opinion on unwritten rules.  What isn’t strange is the thoughtful and honest answers they provided to this question.  Hopefully, it will encourage you to click their links and read their work.

 

A Gsell Of A Win

These are the types of games that have traditionally tripped up the Mets.  Day games.  Get away games.  Games with a rain delay.  All of those things combined have always seemed to get in the Mets way.  Harkening back to 2015, these were all present in the fateful loss against the San Diego Padres which nearly derailed the Mets season.  Those conditions were present today.

With rain waiting, the game had a delayed start until 2:45.  Initially, all seemed well for the Mets.

Yoenis Cespedes hit a monster two run homer off Aaron Nola to give the Mets an early 2-0 lead.  Noah Syndergaard would start the game striking out five Phillies over the first two innings.  Then, all of a sudden, everything would come off the rails in a 36 pitch third inning for Syndergaard.

The odd thing for Syndergaard was even though he was in trouble he was so close to getting out of it.  There were runners on first and second with one out after a Carlos Santana double.  After a Nick Williams RBI groundout, Syndergaard was well in position to get out of a tough inning with the Mets still having a 2-1 lead.

Surprisingly, Syndergaard, who typically has excellent control, immediately went 3-0 against Rhys Hoskins.  He battled back into the count in what was an eight pitch at-bat where he then couldn’t put Hoskins away.  On the eighth pitch, he walked Hoskins.  That walk proved important.

With Aaron Altherr down 1-2 in the count, Hoskins broke too early for second, and it looked like he was picked off.  The ball went to second with Asdrubal Cabrera covering, and he walked back Hoskins while keeping an eye on Santana.  After Cabrera flipped it to Adrian Gonzalez, Hoskins ran out of the baseline (not called), and Santana beat Gonzalez’s throw home.

The game was tied at 2-2.  At that point, Syndergaard wasn’t going to be able to make it through five innings, and the Mets offense had just one hit after the Cespedes homer.  This made this the type of game you’d expect the Mets of very recent vintage to blow.

However, Robert Gsellman came out of the bullpen and gave the Mets a lift.  He was nearly as impressive as Seth Lugo was yesterday throwing two hitless innings while striking out three.  Like Lugo, Gsellman gave the Mets a shot in the arm and a real chance to win.

That chance came in the sixth when Nola, who was infamously lifted by Gabe Kapler on Opening Day after 5.2 innings, walked Cabrera to start the sixth.  After a Gonzalez lineout, Andrew Knapp error, and a Kevin Plawecki ground out, Wilmer Flores pinch hit for Gsellman and drew a walk.  That’s where Amed Rosario, who has hit ninth in every game he has started on the young season, was in prime position to deliver the big hit.

Rosario did a nice job going the other way with the pitch, and he was able to line the ball over Williams, who was playing aggressively in in right field.  The end result was a two run triple giving the Mets a 4-2 lead.

The Mets bullpen, who has had an incredibly strong start to the season, stepped up and shut the door.

Believe it or not, that started with Hansel Robles striking out the side in the seventh.  AJ Ramos and Jeurys Familia would each pitch a scoreless inning a piece to preserve the Mets 4-2 win.

And yes, it is April, which is way too early to focus on these things, but the Mets are now traveling to Washington a half game up in the division and with Jacob deGrom on the mound.

Game Notes: This game was broadcast only on Facebook with former Phillie John Kruk and former Met Cliff Floyd doing the color commentary.  With Michael Conforto being activated from the disabled list, Phillip Evans was optioned down to Triple-A.  He was 0-3 with a strikeout and a GIDP.

Mets Handling of Swarzak’s Injury May Indicate a Real Culture Change

During Spring Training, the Mets seemed to be going down the same path they always do with their handling of Yoenis Cespedes‘ wrist.  He had soreness in the wrist, and the tried to play through it.  Finally, he would get a cortisone shot and miss some games.  Considering how he has started the season, a crisis was clearly averted.  However, it did seem like the injury and how it was handled was a little too reminiscent of how things were handled under the old regime.

Over the last few seasons, the Mets had a culture where they either pressured players to play through potentially serious injuries, or they allowed players to push through without a proper examination.  We saw it time and time again.

Cespedes has sat around for days and weeks before being placed on the disabled list.  Last year, even with the Mets admitting Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler were not at complete strength, they began the year in the rotation, and eventually, they went down with stress reactions.  The Mets were quite vocal in their criticisms about how Steven Matz needed to pitch through this injuries, and in the last two seasons, we have seen him undergo season ending surgeries.

Perhaps the biggest indication there needed to be a change was the Mets handling of Noah Syndergaard last year.  After being scratched from a start with what was believed to be biceps tendinitis, Syndergaard refused to get an MRI.  In his next start, he lasted just 1.1 innings before having to leave the game with a torn lat.  The injury cost him almost four months, and really, it helped cost the Mets the 2017 season.

Something had to change, and the Mets did so at least on paper bringing in new personnel with different ideas on how to both prevent and treat injuries.

Considering the Mets past history coupled with the somewhat questionable handling of Cespedes’ wrist injury in Spring Training, it really made how the Mets were going to handle Anthony Swarzak‘s injury an important test case.

As initially noted by Tim Britton of The Athletic, the Mets did not initially schedule any tests for Swarzak.  Theoretically, those test would not even be needed as Swarzak reportedly feeling better the next day.  And yet, in a complete change from how things were handled previously, the Mets scheduled a precautionary MRI on Swarzak.

While the reports were Swarzak “only” had a sore left oblique, the team put him on the disabled list and called up Hansel Robles.

Precautionary exams.  Putting players on the disabled list immediately.  Having a full 25 man roster available for each game.  This is a stark contrast to how injuries used to be handled with the Mets, and it is hope we will not see a repeat of the injuries which befell the Mets over the last three seasons.

As the Mets broke camp and began the season, it seemed like this year was going to be different.  Seeing how Swarzak’s injury was handled, things really might be different.

Mets Season Really Begins Now

If you break it down, the Mets clearest path to the postseason is for the team to win at least 60% of Noah Syndergaard‘s and Jacob deGrom‘s starts.  These are the Mets c0-aces, and they are the surest bet each time the Mets go through their rotation.  Assuming they make 30 starts a piece, and the rest of the rotation pitches at least .500, the Mets will win at least 87 games, which should be good enough for one of the two Wild Card spots.

While wins are not pitcher dependent, there is usually a correlation between a pitcher pitching very well and his team having a chance to win the game.  More often than not, if a pitcher is going to dominate the opposing offense, you are going to see your team win games.  Overall, while you may not see Syndergaard or deGrom walk off the mound with the “W,” you may see the team have one once the game is over, and that’s what matters for this discussion.

We have seen both starters accomplish the feat.  Back in 2015, the Mets were 20-1o (67%) in games started by deGrom.  In 2016, the Mets were 19-12 (61%) in games started by Syndergaard.  This isn’t to say it will happen. Rather, it suggests it is possible, and it looked all the more possible in their respective starts.

Still, for the formula to work, the rest of the rotation has to pull together to give the Mets at least a combined .500 record.  With the injuries and struggles the past few seasons, that is far from a certainty.

Steven Matz‘s first start had to give you some reason for concern.  Yes, he was squeezed by CB Bucknor, but the home plate umpire was not the reason why Matz was leaving pitches up in the hitting zone.  Bucknor was just reason why Matz walked three and needed 89 pitches to get through just four innings.

Normally, you say Matz can only go up from here, but that would ignore how the Mets pitching performed in 2016 and 2017.

Where Matz failed, the Mets now need Matt Harvey to step up.  Perhaps more than anyone Harvey has symbolized the Mets rise and fall and hopefully their rise again. There was hope with the Mets when Harvey returned in 2015.  His ineffectiveness and further injury was a part of the 2017 despair.

Now, Harvey has a manager in Mickey Callaway and pitching coach in Dave Eiland, who believe in his talent.  Neither wanted to see Harvery traded, and they gave him one of the top four spots in the starting rotation.  Purportedly, they found and fixed the mechanical issue Dan Warthen has been talking about for years and had not been able to fix.

Is Harvey really fixed?  We don’t know, and until Harvey puts together a significant number of good starts together, there will be doubters.  Understandably, there may be doubters long after that.

What we do know is the Mets need to piece together wins in the games Syndergaard and deGrom do not pitch.  Yesterday, Matz didn’t step up to prove he’s the next guy.  Jason Vargas won’t pitch for a while, and there are questions after his second half last year.  Seth Lugo won the job out of Spring Training, but there are issues about his long term viability in the rotation with his inability to go three times through the order.

That leaves Harvey, and that is why in many ways, the 2018 season truly begins today.

Who’s Better: 2015 or 2018 Mets?

Entering the season, Yoenis Cespedes made the bold declaration the 2018 Mets were better than the 2015 Mets.  Now, if you recall that 2015 team, it did feature players like Eric Campbell and John Mayberry.  However, those players were not on the team at the same time as Cespedes.  When Cespedes joined the Mets, he was on a much better roster, a roster which went all the way to the World Series.

With that consideration, it is certainly bold for Cespedes to make that declaration, but is he right?  Let’s take a look:

CATCHER

2015: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki
2018: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki

Just looking at those names, you may be quick to think not much has changed in the catching situation.  In reality, everything is different, and the main difference is these catchers stand on much different footing.

The 2015 season was d’Arnaud’s best as a player with him posting a 126 OPS+ and emerging as an elite pitch framer.  Plawecki was overmatched at the plate, but he did handle the pitching staff exceptionally well.  Since that time, both had gone on to disappoint in 2016 and much of 2017.

Things changed at the tail end of 2017.  Plawecki finally looked like the player the Mets once thought he would become.  d’Arnaud would finish the season with a strong September.  As a result, they will look to begin the 2018 season in a unique time sharing agreement designed to keep both healthy and effective all year long.

VERDICT: 2018if both replicate their Septembers, this won’t even be close

FIRST BASE

2015: Lucas Duda
2018: Adrian Gonzalez

In 2015, Duda hit .244/.352/.486 with 27 homers and 73 RBI.  He was as streaky as he ever was unable to carry the team when they needed his bat most, and he almost single-handedly beat the Nationals in a key late July series.

Gonzalez is coming off the worst year of his career, and he is still dealing with back issues which requires him to warm up two hours before the game starts.

VERDICT: 2015 Gonzalez may not be around long enough to make a bad throw

SECOND BASE

2015: Daniel Murphy
2018: Asdrubal Cabrera

We got a glimpse of what Murphy would became with him slugging .533 over the final two months of the season. Even with the increased power, no one could predict the home run barrage he’d unleash in the postseason.

For his part, Cabrera finds himself at second a year after protesting moving there or anywhere. He’s been a good hitter with the Mets, and he’s been terrific in the clutch. We’ll see if the injuries will permit him to be that again.

VERDICT: 2015 – Murphy’s postseason was an all-time great one

THIRD BASE

2015: David Wright
2018: Todd Frazier

This was really the last hurrah for Wright in a Mets uniform. He was very good in the 30 games he played after coming off the DL hitting .277/.381/.437. He’d hit two emotional homers: (1) his first at-bat since coming off the DL; and (2) his first World Series at-bat at Citi Field.

Frazier has been a solid to somewhat underrated player. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 34 homers, 88 RBI, and a 110 OPS+. He’s been a good fielder averaging a 5 DRS over that stretch.

VERDICT: 2018 – Frazier is no Wright, but he’s healthy

SHORTSTOP

2015: Ruben Tejada
2018: Amed Rosario

Tejada was not supposed to be the starting shortstop in 2015.  After wasting a few chances which led to Omar Quintanilla getting the bulk of the playing time over him, the Mets moved on to Flores.  Eventually, Collins and the Mets went back to Tejada because: (1) he had steadier hands; and (2) he had a .362 OBP in the second half.  Who knows how everything would have turned out had Chase Utley not broken his leg with a dirty slide/tackle.

Rosario is the future of the Mets.  Yes, there are flaws in his game like his very low walk rate.  However, this is a uniquely gifted player who is dedicated to being better.  He’s electric, and he’s got the skill set to be a superstar for a very long time.  For now, we will settle for him being a good defensive shortstop who brings real speed and upside to the table.

VERDICT: 2018 Rosario’s ceiling is just way too high

OUTFIELD

2015: Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson
2018: Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Cespedes was just an otherworldly player when he joined the Mets.  Despite his only being a Met for a few months, he finished in the Top 15 in MVP voting.  Really, the MVP for the Mets that year was Granderson who was a leader in the clubhouse on the lineup.  He had the most homers from a lead-off hitter, and he was a Gold Glove finalist.  Conforto jumped from Double-A to post a 133 wRC+ and a much better than expected 9 DRS in left.

With respect to the 2018 outfield, we see Conforto is a much better play (when healthy), and Cespedes is nowhere near as good as he was when he joined the Mets.  To be fair, there’s no way he could, but he’s still an All Star caliber player.  This means the main difference between the squads is Bruce and Granderson.

VERDICT: 2015 – That Cespedes was just that much better.

BENCH

2015: Michael Cuddyer, Wilmer Flores, Kelly Johnson, Juan Lagares
2018: Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Reyes

From the moment Uribe and Johnson joined the Mets, they were game changers.  They both brought a winning attitude and game winning hits.  In addition to the two of them, Lagares was the defensive specialist, a role to which he is best suited, and Cuddyer was a platoon partner with either Conforto or Duda depending on whether Lagares started the game as well.  Overall, it was a veteran bench who provided needed leadership.

The Mets current bench is similar to the 2015 bench with Reyes trying to emulate the Uribe role even if he’s not as productive a player.  Flores is Flores, but a better hitter, and believe it or not, a worse fielder.  Lagares rediscovered his range he lost in 2015.  Nimmo should be in the everyday lineup and leading off, but early indications are he won’t.

VERDICT: 2015 – Uribe and Johnson were just that important

ROTATION

2015: Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
2018: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Jason Vargas

When you consider Vargas was basically brought in to replicate what Colon did in 2015, the question is whether you believe the Mets top four starters are better as a group now or then.  Looking at it objectively, Syndergaard is the only one who has improved with no one knowing what Harvey and Matz can still provide.

VERDICT: 2015 – they were just healthier then

BULLPEN

2015: Jeurys Familia, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Jon Niese, Sean Gilmartin, Erik Goeddel
2018: Jeurys Familia, Anthony Swarzak, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Paul Sewald

Familia was that good in 2015 that he was able to cover many of the warts in the 2015 bullpen.  This resulted in Collins using him for multiple innings more than any other closer that year.  Reed would begin his emergence as a great reliever, but a back injury would cost Clippard of his effectiveness.  One surprise was Niese performing well as a lefty in the bullpen.

When you include Sewald’s Triple-A experience, this is a bullpen with three closers, six pitchers with closer’s stuff, and a very good LOOGY in Blevins.  Even if Familia is not as good as he was in 2015, it won’t matter because there is enough depth here for the Mets to not need to rely upon him as much.

VERDICT: 2018 – they’re just deeper and with more upside

MANAGER

2015: Terry Collins
2018: Mickey Callaway

For all the warts and problems Mets fans discovered with Collins, he had his finest year as a manager in 2015.  When the ship could have sunk multiple times, he pulled the team together and kept things afloat until the team got healthy and reinforcements arrived.  Of course, he followed this up by helping cost the Mets the World Series with a series of baffling decisions which all blew up in the Mets faces.

Right now, Callaway looks like a genius.  He’s innovative batting Cespedes second and Rosario ninth.  He came down hard on Dominic Smith for being late.  His players seem to love him, and the baseball world roundly believes the Mets made an excellent hire.  However, the season isn’t even a week old.  Even if everyone is a fan at the moment, let’s check back in a couple of months to see if he’s an innovative genius or if he’s a know-it-all who can’t leave good enough alone.

Verdict: 2018 – Collins did cost the Mets a World Series

VERDICT

If you break it down, the 2015 Mets were better at first, second, outfield, bench, and rotation.  The 2018 version is better at catcher, third, short, bullpen, and manager.  Looking at the breakdown, you can say it’s a 5-5 draw.  However, in reality, it’s not.  That 2015 team pitching rotation was just so dominant, and hypothetically, if these teams were going to step on the same field, the 2015 rotation would dominate the 2018 version.

That said, there is a lot of talent on this 2018 team, and from what we have seen so far, this is a roster tailor made to what we presume is Callaway’s talents as a manager.  If Callaway is indeed as good as we hope it will be, we can see him and Dave Eiland taking this pitching staff as a whole to the next level.  If that can happen, and with a little help, this Mets team could accomplish what the 2015 version didnt – win the World Series.