Neil Walker
Pick your reason why the Mets lost this game.
The first and obvious one was Rafael Montero. Montero’s final line was 1.2 innings, five hits, six runs, six earned, four walks, and two strikeouts. He probably wasn’t even that good either.
The sequence that perfectly sums up the night Montero had, as well as his Mets career, was his walking Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos with the bases loaded in the first inning.
Remarkably, Collins saw those 37 pitches and thought, “I want to see more of that!” Actually, you know what, it wasn’t all that surprising. Collins passed over a chance to hit for him in the second inning so he could get two more outs out of Montero before going to a rested Gabriel Ynoa or Sean Gilmartin. They’d eventually come into the game along with the other long man Logan Verrett.
For what it’s worth, Ynoa was roughed up as well pitching two innings allowing three hits, two runs, two earned, and two walks with one strikeout.
If Jacob deGrom or Steven Matz cannot come back quickly, the Mets are in trouble because they cannot keep doing this three more times this season. They probably can’t afford to do this even one more time.
Through Montero’s horrendous outing, you lose just how bad the Mets offense was. It’s quite easy to forget the Mets had a 1-0 lead with Yoenis Cespedes hitting an RBI groundout to score Jose Reyes, who had led off the game with a double. After that, the Mets did nothing against Mat Latos and the Nationals bullpen.
In fact, with Latos homering off Montero to lead off the second, he allowed as many runs as he knocked in. The only reason he didn’t get the win is he left the game early due to injury.
The Mets didn’t deserve to win this one, and they didn’t look like a team that was fighting for a Wild Card. To rub salt in the wound, Daniel Murphy was 3-5 with a double. Meanwhile, Neil Walker is done for the season with back surgery, and no one knows when Wilmer Flores can play again.
At least Kyle Hendricks took care of business against the Cardinals to keep the Mets a half game ahead of them in the Wild Card race.
For much of this season, it is fair to say that the Mets have underachieved which has put them in a fight for the Wild Card instead of a fight for the division. Nothing speaks more to that than the Mets going 3-13 against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and the White Sox. Flip that, and you have the Mets a game up on the Nationals right now.
If you want to argue the Mets are in this position due to injuries, you have to admit the Mets have exacerbated those problems. Jim Henderson‘s usage may not have caused the shoulder impingement, how he was used early in the season certainly didn’t help. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera were thrown out there game after game despite dealing with leg injuries. Neil Walker was playing everyday during the summer despite him not being able to feel his toes. This doesn’t even address pitching Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz with injuries of their own. Overall, the decisions to play these players was either Terry Collins‘ call or was a decision made in conjunction with him.
It’s important thing to keep in mind with Collins now being lauded for his managing and some wanting to put him in the Manager of the Year discussion. People want him in the discussion despite all that he has done to harm the Mets chances (and possibly players) to put them in position to return to the postseason. People want him in the discussion despite Collins making a poor decision each and every game that is at a minimum puzzling, and at worst prevents the Mets chances to win the game. Accordingly, after each game, I will have a separate entry highlighting Collins’ poor managerial decision making.
Yesterday, the Mets annihilated the Braves 10-3. In the fifth inning, the Mets had a 10-1 lead. The chances of blowing that game are next to nothing, and yet Collins kept his starters in virtually the entire game.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a balky knee. With the expanded rosters, the Mets had both Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds available to take over for him. Behind them were Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly. There was plenty of depth not just to get Cabrera out of the game, but also to have pinch hitters and infielders available. Instead, Collins kept him in until the eighth inning.
Yoenis Cespedes has had an injured quad that has hampered him for most of the season. Curtis Granderson has shown signs of fatigue with his playing center field. The Mets had Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto on the bench. Instead of getting Cespedes and Granderson out of the game, Cespedes played the full game and Granderson only came out in the eighth.
So no, Collins didn’t prevent the Mets from winning yesterday’s game. However, his decisions may have far-reaching implications for the Mets in the stretch run of the season.
After sweeping the Reds, and having won 14 of their last 18 games, the Mets have rallied from two games under .500 to get themselves back into the thick of the Wild Card race. In fact, after Wednesday’s games, the Mets are in a virtual tie with the St. Louis Cardinals. Better yet, they’re just a half game back of the Giants for the second Wild Card.
As we hit the homestretch with the Mets having 22 games remaining on the schedule, here is where everyone stands:
San Francisco Giants 74-65
The Giants are in a free-fall. They went from having the most wins in the National League before the All Star Break to having the third worst record in the National League after the break.
The Giants are 4-6 in your last 10, and they are 6-11 over their last 17 games. Even with all that, the Giants have a half-game lead over the Cardinals and Mets for the top Wild Card spot and are five games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.
The main reason why the Giants are struggling right now is their pitching. Madison Bumgarner has gone from dominant in the first half to human in the second half with a 4-4 record and a 3.66 ERA. Johnny Cueto has similarly struggled going 1-4 with a 3.90 ERA in the second half. Keep in mind, these were the only starters the Giants can truly rely upon with Matt Cain never fully came back after his injury problems, Jake Peavy missing most of the year with injuries, and Jeff Samardzjia not living up to his free agent contract.
Worse yet, when the Giants get a late lead, it isn’t safe. Santiago Castilla had blown three saves in the second half. Castilla is struggling to the point that Bruce Bochy removed him from the game against the Rockies rather than letting him make matters worse.
The Giants currently have 23 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 3 at Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Padres (57-82)
- 4 vs. Cardinals (73-65)
- 3 at Dodgers (79-60)
- 4 at Padres (57-82)
- 3 vs. Rockies (67-72)
- 3 vs. Dodgers (79-60)
The Giants remaining opponents combined winning percentage is .481. The biggest benefit to their schedule are the 10 games remaining against the Diamondbacks and Padres as the Giants have a combined 19-9 record against them.
Fangraphs gives the Giants a 66.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 70.7% chance of making the postseaon.
St. Louis Cardinals 73-65
Injuries are starting to catch up to the Cardinals who are 5-5 over their last 10. Since Aledmys Diaz went on the disabled list with a broken thumb, the Cardinals are effectively a .500 team going 17-16.
Other notable injuries are Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, and Trevor Rosenthal. While the Cardinals are keeping their heads above water, they may need to play better than .500 ball to return to the postseason.
The Cardinals currently have 24 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 4 vs. Brewers (62-77)
- 3 vs. Cubs (89-50)
- 4 at Giants (74-65)
- 3 at Rockies (67-72)
- 3 at Cubs (89-50)
- 4 vs. Reds (57-81)
- 3 vs. Pirates (68-69)
The combined winning percentage of the remaining teams is .502. Of the Cardinals remaining 24 games, 14 of them are at home where they are 30-37 on the season.
Fangraphs gives the Cardinals a 57.4% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 58.6% chance of making the postseason.
Washington Nationals 81-57
If seven with 17 remaining isn’t an insurmountable hurdle then 8.5 with 22 remaining shouldn’t be either. That goes double with Stephen Strasburg leaving his first start from the disabled list with an apparent injury. With that said, the Nationals are hot winning seven of their last 10, and with their remaining schedule, it’s going to take a miracle for the Mets to win the division. Here are the Nationals remaining games:
- 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
- 3 vs. Mets (74-66)
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Pirates (68-69)
- 4 vs Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Marlins (69-71)
The Nationals remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .461. Of the Nationals remaining 24 games, they have 16 against National League East teams, and so far, the Nationals are 42-18 against the National League East. Fangraphs gives the Nationals a 99.7% chance of winning the division, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 100% chance of making the postseason.
New York Mets 74-66
When the dust settled last night, the Mets found themselves in a virutal tie with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and a half game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card spot. It should be noted the Mets trail both the Cardinals and the Giants by one game in the loss column.
The Mets are at this point with question marks of their own. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera are each effectively playing on one leg. Neil Walker is out for the season joining David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey. With Rafael Montero‘s struggles, Gabriel Ynoa having difficulty getting major league hitters out, and Logan Verrett not living up to the challenge, the Mets have no real fifth starter at the moment. While Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have stepped up, they are not on par with Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz, neither of whom is definitive to return this season. With all that said, the Mets have hope because they have the weakest schedule out of any of the aforementioned Wild Card competitors:
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Nationals (82-57)
- 3 vs. Twins (52-88)
- 3 vs. Braves (54-86)
- 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Phillies (62-77)
The combined winning percentage of the Mets remaining opponents is .457, which is the lowest opponent’s winning percentage of any of the aforementioned teams the Mets are still chasing.
Fangraphs give the Mets a 64.5% chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 67.2% chance of making the postseason.
Overall, the Mets schedule is filled with a lot of winnable games. If the Mets take care of business, they should be returning to the postseason for the second straight season.
Last night, the Mets received some devastating news when it was discovered that Neil Walker was going to miss the rest of the season due to a herniated disc that is going to require surgery. With Walker done for the year, the Mets are missing not only a good defender, but also a good bat. Someway, somehow the Mets are going to have to replace Walker’s .282/.347/.476 batting line and his 23 homers. It is no easy task.
The obvious solution is a Wilmer Flores – Kelly Johnson platoon. That tandem should be able to replicate Walker’s production as both are incredibly hot at the plate. Flores hit .306/.346/.542 in August with five homers and 19 RBI. Better yet, he is hitting .340/.386/.691 with 10 homers and 26 RBI off lefties this season. For his part, Johnson is hitting .289/.353/.511 with eight homers and 20 RBI in 60 games for the Mets. Over the last month, he is hitting .288/.348/.576 with five homers and 14 RBI. Johnson also had that game winning bases clearing RBI double last night that helped the Mets win the game.
If second base were the only issue, that would be fine. However, the Mets have issues at first base and shortstop that needs to be addressed.
At first base, the Mets have a floundering James Loney. In the month of August, he hit .213/.222/.447 with just one extra base hit. Worse yet, these numbers were with Terry Collins shielding him against left-handed pitching. As we saw last night, Collins is going to be forced to play Flores at first and Johnson at second. When you couple that with Asdrubal Cabrera dealing with a knee injury, the Mets do not have much margin for error.
Even with the rosters expanding today, that remains to be true as the players on the 40 man roster leave a lot to be desired as an everyday replacement.
the 40 man roster, the Mets have enigmatic options.
Eric Campbell is once again dominating AAA hitting .297/.396/.428 with 13 doubles, four triples, five homers, and 40 RBI. Yes, four triples. However, this follows a stint where he didn’t hit in the majors going .159/.270/.222.
Ty Kelly is coming off a decent stint in the majors where Collins shielded the switch-hitter against left-handed pitching. Since his demotion Kelly is hitting .258/.314/.290 with only one extra base hit in the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.
Finally, there is Matt Reynolds who hit .211/.231/.382 in 37 games with the Mets. After the AAA All Star Break, Reynolds has been hitting .255/.333/.294 with only four doubles in 102 at bats.
Keep in mind, T.J. Rivera is not an option at the moment as he needs to remain in the minors until next week because he was sent down to make room for Rafael Montero‘s spot start. This means that even though the Mets have warm bodies available to play the middle infield, they do not have players who can play everyday at the major league level.
With these three not hitting or having established they are not capable of hitting at the major league level, the Mets need to turn in another direction for help. With that in mind, the Mets best option is their 2012 first round draft pick Gavin Cecchini.
While playing shortstop this season, Cecchini has been hitting .327/.388/.449 with 27 doubles, two triples, seven homers, and 53 RBI. Over the past month, Cecchini is hitting .358/.378/.480 with nine doubles, two homers, and 12 RBI. While many have knocked his defense as he has a woeful .929 fielding percentage, it is notable that Cecchini has gone his last 14 games without an error.
For what it is worth, Cecchini has only played one game at secondin his minor league career, and that was Thursday. It should be noted with the rise of Amed Rosario and the trade of Dilson Herrera, Cecchini’s future will be second base. Given the fact that Collins had no issue throwing Reynolds into left field in a game without him having ever played there before, the concerns about him not being a second baseman are a bit overblown.
In reality, the only thing preventing the Mets from calling up Cecchini right now is the fact that he’s not on the 40 man roster. However, with the Jon Niese and Neil Walker injuries, the Mets have the opportunity to move either of them to the 60 day disabled list freeing up a spot for Cecchini. Keep in mind, the Mets are going to have to add Cecchini this offseason anyway to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
With the Mets needing to patch things together on the right side of their infield, they need as many options as possible. They also need some insurance for Cabrera’s knee. They could use another shortstop who could take over for Cabrera late in games to allow him to rest his knee. Furthermore, given the Mets team speed, they could use someone who could be available to pinch run late in games.
Cecchini could fulfill each of these roles quite well. Furthermore, if given the opportunity, he might just prove more valuable than that. At this point, there is really no good reason to keep Cecchini in AAA. He needs to be up in the majors now helping the Mets return to the postseason.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on Mets Minors
After the Mets taking three of four from the Marlins, Mets fans feel much better about their chances of making the postseason. After that sweep, the Mets are now just two games back of the free falling St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and they are also just four games behind the struggling San Francisco Giants for the top Wild Card spot. While nothing is guaranteed, especially with Neil Walker being definitively done for the season, you have to like the Mets chances of returning to the postseason for a second straight season.
With the Washington Nationals rolling into town, it begs the question – is the National League East really out of reach?
For normal fan bases, the answer would be a definitive no. The current 9.5 game deficit (ten in the loss column) is way too much of a hurdle to overcome in just 28 games. However, Mets fans are the same fans that have seen a team collapse with a seven game lead with 17 games left in the season. With that, Mets fans learned that anything is possible.
For the Mets to win the National League East, a lot of things have to break the right way. With the Mets having six head-to-head matchups, the Mets have a real opportunity to become a factor in the National League East race. If the Mets sweep both series, similar to how they did last August, that 9.5 game deficit becomes a much more manageable 3.5 game deficit (four in the loss column). When viewed through that prism, a 3.5 game deficit is certainly one that can be overcome with 22 games left on the schedule.
It becomes more of a debate if the Mets are only capable of taking four out of the six from the Nationals. In that case, the Mets would the be eight games back in the loss column with 22 games remaining on the schedule. Again, better odds than the seven in 17 route.
In those remaining 22 games, the Mets have 19 games against teams with losing records. Six of those are against a Braves team who are on pace to lose 100 games. Another three are against a Twins team who is also on pace to lose 100 games. Factor in another three games against the Reds who are on pace to lose more than 90 games that’s 12 games against teams that will lose over 90 games this season.
The other team team with a losing record left on the Mets schedule is the Phillies. The Mets have gone 20-9 against the Phillies since the start of the 2015 season. That means the Mets are primed to make up some ground with seven games remaining against the Phillies.
Other than the Nationals, the only team with a winning record on the Mets schedule is the very same Miami Marlins team the Mets just beat three out of four times.
Unfortunately, the Nationals have a very similar schedule to the Mets for the rest of the season. That means if the Mets are going to win the National League East, they are not only going to have to take full advantage of their head-to-head games against the Nationals, and they are going to have to beat up on a really weak September schedule.
The chances of that happening? As we all know, it’s not very good. Fangraphs puts the Mets odds of winning the division at 0.2%. Baseball Prospectus is more optimistic putting the Mets chances at 0.4%. As Lloyd Christmas would say, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance. YEAH!”
In reality, the Mets best chance of returning to the postseason is to get one of the two Wild Card spots. With that said, for a fanbase that saw a seven game lead with 17 games left in the seasons vanish into thin air, we all know no September lead is insurmountable. The Mets have their chance to do the impossible starting tonight with a three game set against the Nationals.
Neil Walker came to the Mets because his hometown team, the team that drafted him, no longer wanted him. They felt they would be better off allocating his salary elsewhere. Worse yet, he was sent away a few weeks before Christmas.
Instead of wallowing in self pity, he came to New York almost immediately. He would serve as an elf at the Mets Holiday Party. He would work with Kevin Long to both maximize his power while becoming a much better right-handed hitter.
Walker jumped out of the gate in April hitting nine homers while becoming a key cog in the Mets offense.
After April, he would slump badly. He was near an automatic out at the plate. Throughout this time, he never complained. He didn’t blame his bad back that flared up on him in June. Instead, he kept grinding, and he actually played some of the best defense in his career.
Between the All Star Break and Terry Collins giving him some days off, Walker was rejuvenated. August was shaping to be his best month of the season, if not his career, with him hitting .389/.450/.667 with two doubles, six homers, and 10 RBI. Then disaster struck.
Walker is going to need season ending surgery because he has a herniated disc in his back. He kept insisting he could play, but eventually it became apparent he couldn’t. Hopefully, he has successful surgery, and he can get back to being the player he was.
With that, Walker’s season is over. He’s not going to be able to help his team go the postseason. There will be no October heroics for him.
Worse yet for him, the new dad is about to become a free agent. He should have been able to cash in on what could be considered the best year of his career. Instead, he enters the offseason not just with uncertainty about just how much money he’s lost on the free agent market, but also how this back injury will affect his career.
By all accounts, Walker was a good guy who played his tail off this year. He played through pain, and he did all he could do to help his team win. Instead of being rewarded for all of this, he’s going to have to sit and wonder what might’ve been.
It’s a shame, and Walker deserved a better fate than that.
As we have seen with David Wright some injuries are more than just baseball injuries. Some injuries have long lasting effects, and they affect your quality of life away from the game. You want these players to recover not just because you want to see them back on the field, you want to see them recover because you don’t want to see someone suffer.
That may be where we are now with Neil Walker.
Walker has apparently been dealing with a back issue since his day with the Pirates. It flared up in June, and it has flared up again. Only this time, his back problem has apparently gotten worse – much worse.
Despite the Mets being in the thick of the Wild Card race, Walker has been unable to play since Saturday. Coming into last night’s game, the Mets have announced Walker can no longer play every day. Worse yet, he has tingling in his back which is affecting his legs. There are even more dire reports suggesting Walker is experiencing tingling on one side of his body. It’s at the point now where the Mets wonder aloud about whether Walker’s season is over. Terry Collins put it succinctly when he said, “There’s a lot of concern.” (mlb.com)
Right now, the plan is for Walker to get a second opinion to see if he really can play. Because they’re the Mets, and they have all their injured player’s play, the team still intends to have Walker play through the pain. Given the Mets recent history with back injuries, Wright and Lucas Duda, it’s hard to feel optimistic about Walker’s chances of not just being able to play, but also being able to contribute this season.
No matter what happens, Walker has to do what is right for him and his family. While the Mets need his bat in the lineup for the stretch run, no one wants to see him befall what has befallen Wright over the past couple of years.
Much like last night, the Marlins would not have a lead against the Mets for very long.
In the top of the first, Christian Yelich hit a two run homer off Seth Lugo giving the Marlins an early 2-0 lead. After that, Lugo would shut the Marlins down including robbing Ichiro Suzuki of a base hit to get out of the first. Lugo grabbed the ball dribbling down the line and threw a dart over Ichiro’s head.
His final line was six innings, five hits, two runs, two earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.
Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera would set out to make sure Lugo got the win. With Cabrera playing after missing a game with a knee issue, the two once again served as sparks at the top of the lineup. They started immediately.
After Reyes leadoff the bottom of the first with an infield single, Cabrera brought him home on a game tying two run homer.
Welcome back, Asdrúbal Cabrera! He ties the game with a 2-run blast!! pic.twitter.com/N7DrbRp52j
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 30, 2016
On the night, Reyes would go 4-5 with two runs and a double. Cabrera was 2-3 with a run, two RBI, a walk, and a homer. With them going like this, you can believe the Mets have what it takes to get back to the postseason.
The first inning rally would continue on a Jay Bruce double. Yes, that actually happened. He would then score on a Wilmer Flores RBI single. It was part of a big night for Flores who was 2-4 with a double and an RBI.
Just like that, a Marlins lead became a 3-2 deficit. The Mets wouldn’t look back.
After the first, the Mets kept threatening against Tom Koehler, but they couldn’t quite plate another run. Shocking, I know. The Mets not getting hits with runners in scoring position.
Things changed in the sixth with Curtis Granderson hitting a pinch hit leadoff home run. It sparked a rally with the Mets loading the bases. Alejandro De Aza singled scoring Reyes making it 5-2, but that’s all the Mets would get that inning.
On the De Aza single, Cabrera took a wide turn around third, but he did not appear as if he was really trying to score. Rather, it looked as if he was positioning himself in case there was a bobble or something. In any event, he tried to get back to third but he couldn’t because Bruce was standing there.
Granderson would stay in the game and go to right. He would come back up in the seventh, and he would hit another home run. This was a two run shot scoring Rene Rivera making it a 7-2 game.
With the Mets now having a big lead, Terry Collins decided to let Hansel Robles stay out there for a second inning because Collins is the only one who hasn’t figured out that Robles is overworked.Fortunately, Robles was able to pitch two scoreless helping to preserve the Mets win.
The Mets had to turn to Jeurys Familia for the save as Jim Henderson just couldn’t lock down the 7-2 win. Henderson allowed a starting a J.T. Realmuto solo home run, a Jeff Francouer triple, and a Dee Gordon RBI single. Just like that it was a 7-4 game. Familia came in and put an end to the nonsense striking out Marcell Ozuna to record his 43rd save of the year tying the club record he shares with Armando Benitez.
With the Mets second straight win against the Marlins, they are now a game ahead of them in the standings. Things are starting to get interesting.
Game Notes: Neil Walker missed the game with his lingering back injury. It’s now serious enough that Collins no longer believes Walker can play everyday. James Loney stayed consistent by going 0-3. Before the game, it was announced Steven Matz will not be ready to pitch when his disabled list stint is over because he is still having shoulder issues.
Pennant Race: The Pirates are losing to the Cubs 3-0 in the seventh. The Cardinals are tied with the Brewers 1-1 in the eighth. The Nationals beat the Phillies 3-2.