Mickey Callaway
As Mets fans, we obsess over the Mets, and we magnify each and every flaw in our favorite team’s roster. We see a team overelying on an aging player with a bad back in Adrian Gonzalez instead of going with their optimal lineup and defensive alignment. We see a pitching staff unable to stay healthy. We see the same thing with many of the position players. As a result, we may not be as excited about the 2018 season as we would normally be.
What is interesting, at the same rate, we do not look as in-depth into other team’s rosters to see their very same flaws. Specifically, we do not look at the Washington Nationals roster are really identify how that is a very flawed team at the moment, and just like in 2015, they may very well be a team ripe to be knocked out of their perch. Here’s why:
Rotation Issues
Over the past few years, Max Scherzer has emerged as quite possibly the best pitcher in all of baseball. He’s a virtual lock for a Top 3 spot in the 2018 Cy Young voting. After him ensues a group of question marks similar to what we see in Flushing.
Stephen Strasburg is great, but that is only when he stays on the field. He has only thrown 200 innings in a season once, and that was four years ago. While not quite as catastrophic as the injuries we have seen with the Mets pitchers, he continues to get nicked up, and he is usually good for at least one stint on the disabled list.
Gio Gonzalez may have had a bounce-back year last year with his finishing in the Top 10 of Cy Young voting, but the advanced numbers suggest he’s due for a messy regression. Last year, Gonzalez led the league in walks, and his strikeout rate continued its four year downward trend. Really, he was a large beneficiary of an unsustainable .258 BABIP and 81.6% stranded rate. That’s why his FIP was 3.93 and xFIP was 4.24.
Behind them Tanner Roark is coming off a disappointing year that saw him have a career worst 4.67 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, and 3.2 BB/9. For the fifth starter, the Nationals will start with the unproven A.J. Cole, who had a 5.20 FIP in 11 games for the Nationals last year.
Key Regression Candidates
One of the reasons why the Nationals had a great year last year was they had a numbers of unexpected career years. Heading into the 2018 season, the Nationals will be reliant on those players duplicating those dubious numbers.
First, there was Michael Taylor who shocked everyone by hitting .271/.320/.486. For Taylor to replicate that season, he is also going to have to go out there and repeat his insanely high .363 BABIP. For Taylor, it was not just at the plate, but in the field. Heading into last year, Taylor had a -7 DRS in 1287.0 innings played. Last year, he had an 8 DRS in 940.1. Even with him approaching his prime, it’s hard to believe Taylor is a truly transformed player.
Ryan Zimmerman seemed to bounce-back from two poor offensive seasons, and the injury plagued Nationals star put up a Zimmerman season of old. Like with Taylor, we did see those stats were BABIP fueled. For his career, Zimmerman has a .307 BABIP, but he had a .335 BABIP last year.
And while they were only brought in to be bench players, the Nationals are relying Howie Kendrick and Matt Adams, two players who had tough 2016 seasons, to repeat their strong 2017 offensive seasons.
Injury Concerns
After having microfracture surgery in the offseason, Daniel Murphy is going to start the season on the disabled list. It is expected he is going to be available mid-April, but that is only if he suffers no setbacks. And even if he does return and hits the way we all know he is capable of hitting, Murphy, who has never been a strong defender, may find himself even more limited in the field.
There is also a legitimate question what type of player Adam Eaton will be a year after having surgery to repair a torn ACL and meniscus. This isn’t comparing apples to apples because they are much different players, but in his first year back from his own torn ACL, Kyle Schwarber struggled mightily last year.
Also, Anthony Rendon is a bit injury prone. He has only played 150+ games in just two of his five Major League seasons. If he should suffer an injury, the Nationals may be in trouble because this offense is not on the same solid footing it was last year.
Catching Sitaution
The Nationals have one of the worst catching situations in all of baseball. Matt Wieters is not only bad at the plate (81 OPS+ since 2015), but he continuously ranks as one of the absolute worst pitch framers in all of baseball.
Behind him is Miguel Montero, a player the Cubs released after he complained about how his pitching staff holds on runners. For his part, Montero has just a 90 OPS+ since 2013, and his pitch framing abilities had a noticeable drop last year.
New Manager
There were many reasons why people do not believe in Dusty Baker as a manager. Really, you need not look any further than his decision to bat a completely washed up Jayson Werth second in a do or die game. That’s an indefensible decision from your manager.
However, while his strategy may have left much to be desired, Dusty was always able to control a clubhouse. Remember, this was the guy who inherited the mess Matt Williams left behind. Dusty had to manage a team who had both Bryce Harper and Jonathan Papelbon. Dusty made it work because that’s what he does.
Now, despite the Nationals winning the division in consecutive years in franchise history, Dusty has been replaced by Dave Martinez. For many, Martinez was an inspired hire, and he very well might be. However, he is also largely unproven, and as such he remains a question mark.
Counter-Argument
Ultimately, many will point to just how much better and deeper the Nationals are on paper. The team also has top prospect Victor Robles waiting in the wings, and he could be a complete game changer next season. Another major consideration is the Nationals bullpen looks poised to be their best in years. With everything put together, you see why many are picking the Nationals to be the National League representative in the World Series even despite the team having never won a postseason series.
Now, it’s entirely possible the prognosticators are right, and the Nationals are that good. That would surprise no one. However, at the same token, let’s not pretend the Nationals winning the National League East is a fait accompli. It isn’t because the Nationals are dealing with a much narrower margin of error most believe they are as the season begins. Ultimately, while they are the favorites on paper, this is a team who is vulnerable.
Even if they are vulnerable, it’s going to take the Mets to give them everything they got. This Spring, the Mets looked and felt like a different team under Mickey Callaway. Maybe, just maybe, that is enough to help push this Mets team over the top. It will be fun watching the next 162 games to find out.
Last night was one of those nights. You were forever going to tell people where you were. For me, I was sitting on my couch with a cranky baby and four year old. Why were they so cranky?
Well, because I’m me, an avid sports fan and idiot, I woke them up to watch the final few minutes of the Virginia-UMBC game. History was being made, and I wanted them to see something that never happened before – a 16 beating a 1. The final score was as startling as the upset itself with UMBC winning 74-54.
As an aside, Ralph Sampson and his UVA teammates can rest assured they are no longer the Cavalier team who is mentioned as the biggest upset of all time in college basketball. No, that 1982 loss by number one ranked Viriginia to Division III Chaminade will fall by the wayside – even if that was the much bigger upset.
But I digress.
Last night was one of those great moments in sports history, and you didn’t want to miss it. I know I didn’t want my boys to miss it.
It’s not too dissimilar when I woke up my oldest to watch the end of Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. What’s funny about that game was instead of tuning in for the ninth, he was tuned into all the hysteria which included a miracle game tying three run homer by Rajai Davis off Aroldis Chapman, a rain delay, and Ben Zobrist‘s game and World Series RBI double.
For the first time in 108 years, the Cubs won the World Series. My son was watching it much like he was last night when a 16 seed beat a 1 seed for the first time in 136 tries (34 years).
It once again shows that the impossible can happen in sports. As a proud parent, it’s just proof positive that everything has been amazing since my son was born.
Speaking of amazing, the one thing he hasn’t seen is the Mets win the World Series.
Who knows? With Mickey Callaway at the helm, maybe things will be different. Maybe Michael Conforto being ahead of schedule is a good thing instead of the typical Mets unnecessarily pushing an injured player to play (see Beltran, Carlos).
Maybe, just maybe that’ll be the case instead of this being the typical Mets. After all, the Cubs have won the World Series and a 16 has beat a 1.
This could be the Mets years. Probably not.
With Mickey Callaway at the helm and with Dave Eiland as the new pitching coach, the Mets are once again banking on their pitching staff carrying them to the World Series. As we saw in 2015, when this staff is operating at its best, it is certainly capable of doing so.
Really, that speaks to any era in Mets history. Certainly, the 1969 and 1986 World Series Championships were at least partially driven by great starting pitching. It should therefore come as no surprise that many of the pitchers who pitched on these teams are among the Mets All-Time ERA leaders.
Can you name the Top 10 Mets in ERA? Good luck!
Tom Seaver Jesse Orosco R.A. Dickey Jacob deGrom Jon Matlack Jerry Koosman Dwight Gooden John Franco Bob Ojeda David Cone
Early on, Mickey Callaway announced his intentions to use his best relievers in the highest leverage spots and not just in the ninth inning. As a result, in addition to Jeurys Familia, we may very well see AJ Ramos, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, or even Hansel Robles out there looking to close out a game. This creates the possibility of the Mets having multiple relievers with over 10 saves.
This is something that has happened 12 times in Mets history. Sometimes, it was due to injury. Others, it was the intended plan. Whatever the case, can you name the closers who have at least 10 saves in the same season another Mets reliever had at least 10 saves? Good luck!
Ron Taylor Cal Koonce Tug McGraw Doug Sisk Jesse Orosco Roger McDowell Randy Myers John Franco Anthony Young Armando Benitez Bobby Parnell Latroy Hawkins
Believe it or not, there are just five pitchers who remain from the Mets 2015 Opening Day roster. Those five pitchers are Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia, Jerry Blevins, and of course, Rafael Montero. That’s right, Montero was on the 2015 Opening Day roster, and in case you forgot, he was once again on the Opening Day roster last year.
And you know what? Montero is going to be on the 2018 Mets Opening Day roster as well.
The Mets have given us a clear indication this will happen. Right after the season, the team outrighted pitchers Erik Goeddel and Tyler Pill from the 40 man roster. They claimed Burch Smith in the Rule 5 Draft, and he was immediately sent to the Kansas City Royals for cash. To make room for Major League signings this offseason, the Mets designated Kevin McGowan, Chasen Bradford, and Josh Smoker for assignment.
Put another way, the Mets have had plenty of opportunities to extricate themselves of Montero, and they continuously refuse to do so whether it is out of stubbornness, hope, or really, just plain lunacy. Fact is, while no Mets fans believe in him and his 5.38 ERA, the Mets still believe in him and want him here.
If the Mets truly do want to see their continued investment in Montero pay off for them, then the team is going to have to put him on the 40 man roster because he is out of options. That means Montero gets one more last chance. I’d list what chance number that is, but like most Mets fans, I’ve lost count.
This means, the Mets are going to have to hope Montero’s .376 BABIP last year was largely the result of a truly poor defensive team. They will have to hope his being the second best starter on the team, Jason Vargas included, in not yielding barrels translates to success. (Statcast). They’re also going to have to hope, as noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, he continues to yield the fewest hard hit balls on this pitching staff.
Mostly, the team is going to have to hope Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland are part pitching coaches and part miracle workers.
If this does happen, and Montero FINALLY attacks the zone like he has shown in Double-A and below, the Mets may have something. Their patience may finally be rewarded and, frankly, applauded. However, it is much more likely we will see more of the same, which should create heat on Sandy Alderson because he parted with quality pitcher after quality pitcher in order to hold onto Montero.
Regardless of your opinion on Montero and the likelihood of his being successful, he’s going to be on the Opening Day roster. There are bullpen spots open, and Montero is out of options. At this point, we can only hope the stubborn refusal to DFA him will pay off.
Since cracking the Opening Day roster in 2014, Travis d’Arnaud has averaged 90 games per season behind the plate with last year being his high at 112 games. This is because d’Arnaud has not withstood to the day-to-day rigors of catching. Each and every year, he deals with a different injury to another part of his body, and as a result, the Mets have been left scrambling to figure out their Major League catching depth.
With the re-emergence of Kevin Plawecki as the Mets catcher of the future and the minor league signing of Jose Lobaton, the Mets are in a much better position from a catching standpoint than they have been in years past. While the Mets have better depth, the end game should be to keep d’Arnaud healthy for a full season.
And for that matter, with Plawecki finally showing the type of bat the Mets believed he had, the team needs to find a spot for him in the lineup.
To that end, a platoon between the catchers makes sense. Fortunately, both catchers seem inclined to go forward with the plan, and they both thrived under the situation last September with d’Arnaud hitting .297/.343/.656 in 20 games and Plawecki hitting .278/.400/.426 in 19 games.
So based upon their production in an admittedly small sample size, we know it could potentially work. What we don’t know is how it should work next season, especially when you consider both are right-handed hitters.
Perhaps, the Mets should approach this from a different perspective. Instead of focusing on what pitcher is on the mound for the opposing team, the Mets should focus on what pitcher is on the mound for their own team. That is, much like what we saw in 2016 with Noah Syndergaard and Rene Rivera, assign a catcher to a Mets starter based upon whom the pitcher works best.
When you look at the numbers, what is quite startling is just how much better the Mets starters numbers are with Plawecki behind the plate. There is a very important caveat to that. Plawecki did the bulk of the catching of these pitchers back in 2015 when they were all healthy and dealing. It was d’Arnaud who had to deal with each one of them having real injury issues which corresponded with diminished stuff and stats.
Basically, this will come down to comfort, and for starters, we know that likely means Plawecki will be catching Syndergaard because as we saw in 2016, he and d’Arnaud have had difficulty getting on the same page. As an aside, it was somewhat telling Syndergaard was caught by Plawecki and Tomas Nido in his two “starts” at the end of the season.
Coincidence or not, there may be something to Plawecki not catching Jacob deGrom at all last season. Given their track record together, which includes deGrom winning the 2014 Rookie of the Year Award and his amazing 2015 postseason, or their both having lower case ds in their last name, there is a rapport between deGrom and d’Arnaud which should continue.
Likely, you want to get each of the catchers 2-3 days in a row when they do play in order to afford them to maximizing rest and getting in rhythm. To that end, d’Arnaud should catch deGrom with the fourth and fifth starter, whoever they may be. This would set up this type of rotation:
- Jacob deGrom (d’Arnaud)
- Noah Syndergaard (Plawecki)
- Jason Vargas (Plawecki)
- Matt Harvey (d’Arnaud)
- Steven Matz (d’Arnaud)
Really, after deGrom and Syndergaard, you can order the pitchers anyway you want, and you can certainly resort them depending on which catcher and pitcher feel most comfortable as a tandem. In the end, what really matters is Mickey Callaway, Dave Eiland, and Glenn Sherlock communicate with the starters and catching tandem to find the best fit for each pitcher. If done properly, we may see the catchers last a full season, and more importantly, we could see the pitching staff as a whole revert to their 2015 level.
When Mickey Callawaybecame the new manager of the Mets, every player got a bit of a clean slate. Sure, the front office as well as holdovers like Ricky Bones and Glenn Sherlock could probably Callaway with pertinent information, but at the end of the day, Callaway was going to meet each player, see their work and preparation, and then he could make his own determination about a player.
This was really important for a young player like Dominic Smith.
There is no doubt Smith is talented, but he has shown some maturity issues. Despite the team stressing his physique to him, he put on 20 pounds or so during the season. That was after he had reported to Spring Training last year in terrific shape.
When he did get the call-up last year, as reported by Abbey Mastracco of nj.com, he had been late to the park on more than one occasion. This led to veteran players “reprimanding” him for his behavior.
This was all part of a difficult first experience in the Majors which saw Smith hit .198/.262/.395 in 49 games. In total, he had a -1.2 WAR.
If there was anyone who needed a fresh start, it was Smith. Initially, he made the most of it by losing more than 30 pounds before the start of Spring Training. He reported to Spring Training early. He was doing all the right things.
He was having the type of Spring where he earned a chance to show the Mets he deserved at least a long look this Spring. He was starting to give the Mets to at least consider having him be the Opening Day first basemen. Whether as a reward for his dedication or not, he was going to get a chance right away with his being named as the first baseman in the Mets first Spring Training game.
Smith would be late to the ballpark before the first game.
THE FIRST GAME!
Fair or not, this was a player who had to prove to the Mets he was dedicated and mature enough to be a Major Leaguer, and the first chance he gets, he fails to show up on time.
He left Callaway no choice but to bench him. That left Smith watching on as five time All Star and a former teammate of CallawayAdrian Gonzalezget a couple of at-bats as the DH. He also looked on as Peter Alonso take his place in the lineup.
Smith watched the player taking his spot on the Opening Day roster, and he watched the prospect who has begun breathing down his neck as the Mets first baseman of the future.
Smith knew he had an uphill climb to surpass Gonzalez. He had to know Alonso has been making a name for himself. It shouldn’t be lost on Smith that while the organization has concerns about his power, Alonso has it in spades.
Despite knowing all of this, Smith failed to show up on time to the first game of Spring Training. With that, he’s shown he’s not yet mature enough to be entrusted with the first base job. Not yet.
And that right there is why he’s already lost the first base competition.
After the positive feedback we received after our first Mets Blogger Roundtable, the Mets Bloggers have decided to come back for at least a second week. This week, we tackle the question “Which Mets player are we most excited about watching this Spring Training?”
Michael Baron (MLB.com)
Dominic Smith is the first player that comes to my mind, although there are several interesting stories to watch this spring. Here’s a guy who has spent a number of years now battling weight issues, and therefore reputation issues, and it’s no secret the organization has concerns with him. And, obviously, signing Adrian González clearly indicates that as well. I am looking for him to step up and look like the player and prospect everyone expects him to be, similar to howMichael Conforto performed last spring. If Dom does that, he’ll make for a tough decision a month from now, which is always a good internal conversation for Mets brass to have.
Roger Cormier (Good Fundies & Fangraphs)
Do we all remember when Bret Booneabruptly retired a few days into Mets spring training camp in 2006? He admitted Jose Reyes “just kind of stared” at him “with that smile on his face” and realized the joy of playing baseball in himself was long gone. Well, I’m hoping Adrian Gonzalez looks at Dominic Smith, smiling and loving life with his old and new svelte physique, and realizes his future as a full-time top sub sandwich enterprise ambassador should be his present. Smith did not earn the full-time first baseman gig last season, but he’s already earned it before the first ST game. He wasn’t even in this good of shape last spring, so I’m looking forward to seeing the Dom Smith everybody warned with a smile was about to enter our lives last summer.
Michael Ganci (Daily Stache)
The player I am most excited to watch at Spring Training might surprise a few people. It’s Brandon Nimmo. I am by no means trying to say he’s an all-star, but I think he is often overlook for the value he brings to a team. First of all, his defense in center field (while not as good as Juan Lagares) is good. For me, I am more impressed with his approach at the plate. He’s one of the more disciplined hitters on the team, especially when it comes to his knowledge of the strike zone. Sure, his .260 batting average last year is not too impressive, but his on-base percentage was more than 100 points higher at .379. Despite not looking like he’s going to have a starting spot out of the gate, Nimmo is going to be an important piece on this team coming off of the bench. And knowing how hard he works, if there’s an injury, he’ll be ready to go in a pinch. It’s hard not to root for the kid.
Mark Healey (Gotham Baseball)
Player I am most excited about? Great question. I know if the Mets had been smart enough to sign Joe Smith, he’d have been my answer. I guess I have to let that one go, though. Steven Matz is the other. There are certain guys I love to watch pitch, and Matz is the latest version of that.
The Mets player I’m most interested in seeing this spring is Yoenis Cespedes. The slugger is coming off a season that saw injuries limit him to only 81 games. He’s trained differently this offseason including doing yoga to make sure he is more agile and not simply bulked up like in 2017. It will be interesting to see if his offseason training can help him regain his decencies prowess that helped him win a gold glove in 2015. Also have to see if he can make it through all spring without a muscle injury which seemed to be a weekly occurrence for him last season.
When healthy, Cespedes has been everything the Mets hoped for when they traded for him and signed him to a four-year deal. The Mets are not going to be contenders in 2018 if Cespedes plays only 81 games and spring will be a good time to see if anything has changed for Yo.
As pitchers and catchers officially reported to Spring Training, new Mets manager Mickey Callaway is seeking to bring the Mets back to the World Series. In some ways, 2015 is another lifetime ago. Still, it really was only three years ago.
In total, there would be 49 players who appeared in a game for the Mets. Of that 49, there are only 13 who will be on the Mets Opening Day roster this season. Can you name them? Good luck!
Travis d’Arnaud Kevin Plawecki Wilmer Flores David Wright Juan Lagares Yoenis Cespedes Michael Conforto Jacob deGrom Matt Harvey Noah Syndergaard Steven Matz Hansel Robles Jenrry Mejia Rafael Montero Jerry Blevins