Michael Wacha
Whereas nothing went right in the series finale against the Braves, nearly everything went right against the Red Sox. That was all the more incredible when you consider Amed Rosario and Jeff McNeil ran them out of the top of the first.
Rosario you understood as he was aggressive running to an open base, and honestly, it was shocking to see Xander Bogaerts beat him in a foot race. As for McNeil, he was just picked off.
This didn’t come back to haunt the Mets. For starters, it didn’t because Michael Wacha was very good over five innings against the Red Sox. He kept them off balance with his change, and he was pumping his fastball up to 97 MPH.
The only run off of him was a Mitch Moreland solo homer in the fourth. By then, the game was effectively over.
The Mets offense finally woke up against the bullpenning Red Sox. Every batter reached base safely at least once, and Robinson Cano was the only starter without a hit.
The Mets offense put together three straight innings with multiple run homers. First, it was a Michael Conforto two run shot off Josh Osich in the second:
.@mconforto8 hit that one wicked far. ? #LGM pic.twitter.com/ZV4ENeOlEQ
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 28, 2020
Then, Pete Alonso got off the snide after struggling much of the early part of the season with an absolute laser over the monster:
.@Pete_Alonso20 ain't afraid of no monster. ? #LGM pic.twitter.com/yaeJXNFGjk
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 28, 2020
Then, in the fourth, Dominic Smith hit a three run homer increasing the Mets lead to 7-1:
.@TheRealSmith2_ joins the party and extends our lead to 7️⃣. #LGM pic.twitter.com/TBKs1HsXTn
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 28, 2020
Of course, with this being the Mets, they can’t make anything easy.
Chasen Shreve, making his Mets debut, allowed a homer to Bogaerts in his two innings of work. That made it 7-2 Mets.
Jeurys Familia came on in the eighth, and unfortunately, he did not build on his impressive first appearance of the season.
The problems started when he issued a one out walk to J.D. Martinez. Rafael Devers doubled setting up runners on second a third with one out. Both runs would score leading to Luis Rojas to bring in Seth Lugo for the four out save.
Lugo got out of the eighth, and he retired the Red Sox in order to preserve the 7-4 victory. The Mets are now back at .500 and just hoping to be able to play another day.
Game Notes: Brandon Nimmo batted ninth again. Smith was the DH with Yoenis Cespedes getting the day off.
Zack Wheeler desperately wanted to stay with the Mets. Brodie Van Wagenen wasn’t interested, and he went so far as to say what Wheeler signed for with the Phillies didn’t match how the Mets valued him.
Why be magnanimous about a very good pitcher who time and again made it clear he wanted to be a Met? Why avoid giving a starter in your division bulletin board material? Those are questions for another day.
The overarching question is what was Brodie thinking? He really signed Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha instead of Wheeler. In Porcello’s first start, we saw it for the mistake it was.
Porcello wasn’t good, but he wasn’t quite as bad as his final line seemed.
The Braves got to Porcello with two in the first, and he escaped trouble in the second by getting Ronald Acuna to hit into an inning ending double play. If you had any hopes that meant his sinker was working, they’d be quickly dashed.
It began with Jeff McNeil making an error allowing Ozzie Albies to reach safely. Then, with the Mets apparently being deathly afraid of Freddie Freeman (with good reason), Porcello walked him. Then disaster struck.
Marcell Ozuna doubled to put the Braves up 3-1, and Matt Adams walked. At that point, the Mets were still in it. Then, J.D. Davis completely misplayed what was a routine play for a left fielder into a two RBI double for Dansby Swanson.
Doubles By Dansby™️#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/X7oF1bUArA
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 27, 2020
Instead of it being 4-1 with one out, it was 5-1 with no outs and runners on second and third. With that, Porcello’s night was done, and the Mets night was effectively over.
Corey Oswalt was thrust into a relief role instead of preparing for a start against the Red Sox. Again, he was put in a position to fail, and he did. He’d allow inherited runners to score along with a few of his own. On the bright side, he ate four innings saving the pen a bit.
When all was said and done, it was 14-1 Braves with the only Mets run being driven in by ninth place hitter Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo batted ninth because of the left-handed starter Sean Newcomb.
Newcomb was terrible in his own right, but he was bailed out by an overly aggressive Mets lineup. This is the same lineup which was assembled due to their bats while punting defense. They punted defense with a starter with a low strike out rate and is coming off a season where he had the worst ERA in the AL.
You can point a lot of fingers tonight. No matter where you point them, make sure you point them at the GM. This is exactly how he designed the team, and it failed like anyone else could’ve predicted.
Game Notes: Tomas Nido started over Wilson Ramos. He scored on the Nimmo double. Davis is 1-for-10 on the season.
This is a season like none other. It’s a 60 game sprint with few off days. The threat of normal injuries are heightened by these few off days and sprint to get ready again for the season. There’s also the threat of COVID19 which can wipe out a player’s season, the bulk of a team’s roster, and quite possibly the entire season.
Before going to the divisions and Wild Cards, lets first focus on the Mets. If the season started on time, they were a real threat to win the division. Their chances have now been severely hampered.
With Noah Syndergaard going down, Michael Wacha was thrust into the rotation. This is the same Wacha with shoulder issues and couldn’t even average five innings per start last year.
Things got much worse for the rotation with Marcus Stroman‘s injury, which is hopefully not serious. When he’s out, one of the best two starters in the game is going to be replaced by a not ready or Quad-A starter. That’s a huge drop-off.
There are also bullpen injuries and question marks. Combining the Mets pitching issues, their purposeful playing a bad defensive team, and not playing their best players, this might be a fourth place team.
That’s a reflection of the division strength too. By no means should we be surprised if the Mets win the division or grab a Wild Card. That goes double if MLB expands the postseason. This team does have a lot of talent and can get insanely hot despite their significant flaws.
That principle applies to all 30 teams. They could get insanely hot and/or other teams could deal with significant injuries/illnesses. With all those caveats in mind, here’s my 2020 division winner projections:
AL East – Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays know better than anyone how to bullpen. They’re built for it at a time when teams are likely going to have to do some form of it for up to a month.
This is a smart organization who has probably game-planned for this better than any other organization. This should help them edge past an injury prone Yankees team and exciting young Blue Jays team who still doesn’t know where they’re playing.
AL Central – Cleveland Indians
When everyone is searching for pitching, the Indians have a surplus of starters. They also have perhaps the best manager in the game in Terry Francona. Combine that with MVP level players like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, they should have enough to fend off the exciting young Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins who won the division last year.
AL West – Oakland Athletics
Like the Rays, this is a team built for bullpenning in a season where all teams will likely have to do some form of it. They have Matt Olson and Matt Chapman at the corners too. Also, not to be too snarky here, but also like the Rays, they’re one of the teams most accustomed to playing with little to no fans. This won’t be a huge shock for them.
This is not a reflection on the Astros not being able to bang the garbage cans anymore. They remain a very good team, and Dusty Baker is the perfect manager to lead them now. No one should be surprised if they win the division.
The same could be said for the Angels who are in a good spot to surprise everyone.
NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
Arguably, no team improved more than the Phillies. They added an ace in Zack Wheeler, and they have Didi Gregorius at SS. Additionally, they’ll have a full season of Andrew McCuthchen. They also had a massive upgrade at manager going from Gabe Kapler to Joe Girardi. On that point, Girardi is one of the best at using his bullpen, a skill which will be at a premium this season.
The Phillies get the edge here with the Braves and Nationals having players sick and/or opting out of the season. Again, this is a tight division top-to-bottom where any team but the Marlins could win the division.
NL Central – Milwaukee Brewers
Like with the Rays and Athletics, this team knows how to bullpen better than anyone. They also have Christian Yelich powering the offense and “full” season of Keston Hiura. The Brewers are built for a season like this.
That should edge them ahead of the Reds who have the starting pitching and the Cardinals who have a lot of question marks.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
The best team in baseball added Mookie Betts this past offseason. Someone they have an outfield with Betts and Cody Bellinger. You have to conjure problems with this team whose depth is a huge asset in a season where any team could deal with injury and illness. If you’re choosing a team other than them, you’re trying too hard.
As for the Wild Cards, it’s tough to tell for a myriad of reasons including not knowing how many there will be. On that note, you figure just about any team but the Marlins, Orioles, and Tigers have a shot at grabbing a Wild Card spot.
Overall, these predictions are best guesses at what will be a baseball season like none other. Some will be right, some will be wrong. Ultimately, it’s just great baseball is back. Let’s just hope everyone stays healthy and safe.
With Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman going down, the Mets need a fifth starter. Whenever the Mets need a starter, the debate once again turns to whether Seth Lugo should be put back in the rotation.
Certainly, you can understand the impetus. Lugo was a revelation in the rotation in 2016, and without him in the rotation, the Mets very likely miss the postseason. We also saw him back that up by being the ace for Puerto Rico in the 2017 World Baseball Classic.
We know Lugo can start, and we know he can be extremely good in the rotation. We also know Lugo is one of, if not the best, reliever in baseball. It’s extremely difficult to part with that.
The Mets starting pitching and bullpen injuries make it even tougher to remove Lugo from the bullpen.
At the moment, the Mets rotation only has three reliable starters in deGrom, Steven Matz, and Rick Porcello. While reliable, past deGrom, that’s not a lot of innings.
In 2019, Matz averaged 5.1 innings per start. Things improved in the second half when he moved to the middle of the runner. After that, he did average 5.2 innings per start. That’s still under 6.0, but he did make strides towards at least being a six inning pitcher.
Porcello also averaged 5.1 innings per start. That was after averaging 5.2 innings per start the previous year. Looking at his career, Porcello’s innings have declined in each of the last three years. That’s a bad trend for a pitcher the Mets need to be an innings eater.
That means two of the Mets three best pitchers don’t consistently pitch at least six innings. That leaves the bullpen getting 10-11 outs during their starts. That should prove to be a break compared to the fourth and fifth spots.
Last year, Michael Wacha averaged just 4.2 innings per start. Over the final three months of the season, he pitched into the fifth just three times over 11 starts. In his career, he’s never averaged more than 5.2 innings per start. This is from the fourth starter.
After that, the Mets are stuck going to Corey Oswalt, David Peterson, or bullpenning it. The young starters can’t be relied upon to consistently go deep into games. That puts a further burden on the pen, and that gets worse with planned bullpen games.
Further compounding a bullpen game is the lack of people who can go multiple innings consistently. Robert Gsellman was that guy, but he’s injured. Effectively speaking, that leaves Lugo as the only reliever who can consistently give the Mets multiple innings out of the pen.
That goes to another point. The Mets rotation isn’t the only part of this staff beset with injuries. Brad Brach and Jared Hughes will begin the year on the IL.
Really, a lot of the Mets bullpen is a question mark. Can Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia rebound from bad 2019 seasons? Will Justin Wilson‘s elbow hold up? Can Dellin Betances return to his dominant pre-injury form?
There’s just far too many questions in the bullpen and far too few innings in the rotation. Asking any bullpen to have to cover 10-12+ outs four out of ever five days is a monumental ask. It’s even worse with few off days.
Fact is, at the moment, the Mets need Lugo in the pen. He’s really the Mets only option who can pitch multiple innings. He’s the best reliever on the team.
Really, Lugo is the best option out of the pen. At a time when the Mets need the bullpen to take on a tough workload due to the schedule, they should have Lugo at the ready to get those innings as it’s not coming from another reliever.
Overall, Lugo may be the best option for fifth starter. He’s also the best reliever the Mets have. They need him out otherwise. In any event, Lugo is where he belongs – in that bullpen.
When Brodie Van Wagenen took over as the Mets General Manager, he was gifted an organization with great pitching depth. It was more than just reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. It was a rotation so deep, Steven Matz was a fifth starter.
Behind them was an upcoming group of starters at or near top 100 rankings. Of note, Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay were first round picks putting it together and putting themselves in a position to be Major League ready starters sooner rather than later. Notably, both made their Major League debuts last year.
Now, Matz has gone from fifth starter to the Mets second starter, and the Mets rotation currently goes just three deep. How the Mets got here is purely on Van Wagenen’s shoulders.
Some of this was Van Wagenen’s hubris. He was all too willing to trade top prospects close to the Majors and continue with thin pitching depth. It was something the Mets got away with last year with Mickey Callaway who seemed to have a knack for keeping starters healthy. Of course, Van Wagenen couldn’t wait to fire him.
On the top prospects Van Wagenen traded away, he was all too cavalier about it. In fact, he said he was comfortable doing so because he was confident he’d draft well.
Brodie Van Wagenen said he had this aggressive draft strategy in mind when he traded away prospects.
Story: https://t.co/XL9KOUpj0f
— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) June 30, 2020
Now, Van Wagenen has done well with the drafts. However, it needs to be noted, especially now, Matthew Allan, Josh Wolf, and J.T. Ginn are nowhere near being ready to help this team win now.
Speaking of win-now, the Mets just let Zack Wheeler go to the Phillies even though Wheeler wanted to stay and would’ve signed at a discount. Instead, he signed that discounted deal with the Phillies. To make matters worse, Van Wagenen went out of his way to slight and further motivate Wheeler.
Van Wagenen’s master plan was to instead sign Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. Porcello is coming off a year where he had the worst ERA in the AL. Wacha has a bum shoulder and a three year decline in FIP, BB/9, K/9, and K/BB.
Again, Van Wagenen’s plan was to dismantle the Mets group of aces and near aces with Major League ready first round picks and replace that with well below average starters in the name of . . . depth. While it’s a sick joke, it wasn’t intended to be funny.
Sure, you can argue injuries hit this rotation. Noah Syndergaard needing Tommy John couldn’t be foreseen. Marcus Stroman tearing his hamstring was bad luck. Conversely, that’s exactly why you hold onto your starting pitching depth, and it’s why you hold onto your top end starters instead of letting them go to a division rival.
These problems have been compounded by the bullpen injuries. This means the Mets are down to three viable starters and no one to fill-in those middle innings when the dubious fourth and fifth starters can’t go deep into games.
However, Van Wagenen will tell us it’s alright because he built depth (he didn’t), and he had a draft strategy (leaving the team with no real MLB ready starters in the minors). Suddenly, the Mets went from a team so needed a couple of tweaks to be a true World Series contender to a team who may now just be the fourth best in the division.
If the Mets fall short this year, make no mistake, it’s all on Van Wagenen and his complete and utter short-sightedness on how he has handled the Mets pitching depth.
Another day, another pitcher’s duel, another extra inning game. This time it was Michael Wacha and Johnny Cueto.
This game went into extras tied 1-1 with the Mets run coming when Wilson Ramos scored in the sixth. Yoenis Cespedes was not credited with an RBI as he grounded into a double play.
The Mets took the lead for the first time in the 11th on an Amed Rosario homer off Reyes Moronta. Later in the inning, Michael Conforto hit a bases loaded two RBI single expanding the Mets lead to 4-1.
The Giants scored one in the bottom of the inning off Edwin Diaz, but that was it as Diaz picked up the save. After pitching a scoreless ninth and 10th, Justin Wilson picked up the win.
Yesterday, the Mets blew an early lead. They wouldn’t do that today. It all started with Jeff McNeil leading the game off with a homer off Tyler Chatwood.
Later that inning, Wilson Ramos homered to give the Mets an early 3-0 lead.
The only run the Cubs would score off Michael Wacha would be an Anthony Rizzo fifth inning homer. At that point it was, 4-1 Mets with Pete Alonso hitting a third inning homer.
The Mets would also get runs off a wild pitch and error as well an RBI from Brandon Nimmo in this 7-2 Mets victory.
Through five, neither Michael Wacha nor Anibal Sanchez allowed a run. Finally, in the sixth, Brandon Nimmo hit an RBI single giving the Mets a 1-0 lead. Soon the floodgates would open.
Amed Rosario had a two RBI single to cap off the three run inning. After a run in the seventh, the Mets put up seven runs to get an 11-0 lead.
In that inning, Michael Conforto hit a three run homer, and later, Yoenis Cespedes hit a two run shot. That pushed the lead to 11-0, and that would be the final score with Wacha earning the win.
The Mets won 11-0 with Wacha picking up the win.
Back in March, Major League Baseball and the Player’s Association agreed the players would receive a prorated portion of their salaries predicated upon how many games were played in 2020. This has now devolved into a he said-she said with owners trying to back out of the deal and push for players to cut their salaries more than previously agreed.
Based upon the proposed revised season from the owners, there would be an 81 game season. Even if the previously agreed upon deal was honored by both sides, that would mean each player would receive half of their 2020 salary. As an example, Marcus Stroman would only make $6 million out of his $12 million salary.
However, the proposal MLB made earlier this week would not allow Stroman to make his $6 million let alone the $12 he agreed upon in arbitration. No, MLB wants to pay him MUCH less than that. As part of what could be described as a union busting plan, MLB proposed staggering ADDITIONAL pay cuts to the players. Jeff Passan of ESPN broke down the percentages:
The salary scale in the proposal is:
– $0 to $563,500 (league minimum) paid at 90%
– $563,501 to $1 million paid at 72.5%
– $1,000,001 to $5 million paid at 50%
– $5,000,001 to $10 million paid at 40%
– $10,000,001 to $20 million paid at 30%
– $20,000,001 and up paid at 20%— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) May 27, 2020
Just to let you know how this works math works out, Passan used Mike Trout, the highest paid player in the game, as an example. Trout was due to make $36.7 million in 2020. Under the proposal presented by MLB, Trout’s salary would be reduced from $36.7 million to $5,748,577. That’s a pay cut of roughly 85%.
Running through the same convoluted math for Stroman, and we see his $12 million salary be reduced to roughly $2.7 million. That is a 78% pay cut. More than that, Stroman is being less than what Michael Wacha‘s $3 million base salary was supposed to be in 2020, but unlike Wacha, he’s not going to get incentives to raise his salary.
Let’s compare that to Commissioner Rob Manfred.
According to rumors, Manfred earns $11 million per year as the commissioner of baseball. If we were to use the same formula for Manfred as we used for the players, Manfred’s $11 million salary would drop to approximately $2.6 million. That would be an approximate 76% pay cut.
However, that is not what Manfred is doing. No, he is only cutting his salary by 35%. That means instead of the $2.6 million he would make as a player, he is going to make $7.15 million.
Keep in mind, Manfred is not going to have to assume the risk of playing games and traveling. He is not going to have to be separated from his family for months on end. He is not going to have to experience the same level of exposure to COVID19 as the players will if the season ever resumes. No, Manfred has the option to work from home or from an office he can dictate screening procedures. He can go home to his family every night.
Even if we take the owners who won’t open their books at face value and accept they can’t proceed with a season paying players at the previously collectively bargained amounts, there needs to be an explanation why Manfred should only take a 35% pay cut while Stroman takes a 78% pay cut.
We need an explanation why Manfred should make more money off of his $11 million than Trout will make off of his $36.7 million. Seriously, Manfred is currently slated to make about $1.45 million more than Trout. When you look at it that way, you understand a little more why Max Scherzer responded on behalf of the players the way he did:
— Max Scherzer (@Max_Scherzer) May 28, 2020
In the end, fans have taken different positions on this fight between the players and owners. Many are frustrated in what they see as a fight between billionaires and millionaires. While we have the right to our own opinions, and we can understand people’s frustrations, we should be at least able to agree a system where Manfred’s pay is cut only 35% and players’ salaries are cut anywhere from 70 – 85% is unfair, and no one should be defending Manfred and the owners pursuing such an inequity.
The Mets had a 4-0 lead through four with Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto hitting homers. Michael Wacha was in line for the win after allowing one earned over six:
He’d start the seventh loading the bases with no outs. Jeurys Familia relieved him by allowing all the inherited runners to score plus one of his own. When was all said and done, Familia was the pitcher of record in the Mets 5-4 loss.