Max Scherzer
In a surprise, the New York Mets hired Eric Chavez to be their hitting coach. Chavez, 44, had never been a Major League coach in his career, but notably, he was hired to be the New York Yankees assistant hitting coach for the 2022 season.
Now, this isn’t the Mets hiring someone right out from the Yankees. The Yankees had to grant permission, and to their credit, they did permit the Mets to hire him for a promoted role. Initially, there were thoughts on having him as the bench coach, but ultimately, the Mets opted to hire him as the hitting coach.
Still, it is quite telling, Chavez would leave a Yankees team and organization he was a part of for two years. Notably, in those two years, the Yankees did resurrect his career. He went from injury prone to nearing retirement to play four more years in the majors as a very productive role player.
Of course, that’s nothing to say of the relationship between Chavez and new Mets GM Billy Eppler. It was Eppler who believed in Chavez and was part of him signing with the Yankees. When Chavez retired, he worked with Eppler in the Yankees front office. When Eppler was hired as the Los Angeles Angels GM, he brought Chavez with him to the Angels. First, Chavez was a special assistant, and later, he was a Triple-A manager.
Chavez proved to be no more than an interim manager for Keith Johnson, who was promoted to the majors. Those 28 games were the full extent of Chavez’s coaching experience. After those 28 games, he was a managerial candidate for a few jobs, but ultimately, he would return to the Angels front office to work with Eppler until Eppler’s termination after the 2020 season.
Whether Chavez can be a hitting coach at the Major League level, or really any level, is anyone’s guess at this point. The Yankees seemed to believe he could, and obviously, the Mets did as well. However, it should be noted the New York Post did report the Mets could have three separate hitting coaches for the 2022 season. Between that and the bench coach rumors, that could lead you to surmise this was just a way to get Chavez over from the Bronx to the Mets in some capacity.
Whatever the case, the Mets found someone they wanted, and they were able to hire him away from the Yankees. Moreover, we see Eppler bringing over a confidant from his days with the Yankees and the Angels. Taken together, this symbolizes how things are different for the Mets.
Eppler is free as a GM to go out and get the guys he wants. Moreover, the team is able to go out and grab people they covet from other organizations. This is different for the Mets, and it is another example of why Francisco Lindor signed that contract extension last season and why Max Scherzer came to the Mets this offseason.
Andrew Marchand of the New York Post broke the news MLB Network has not renewed Ken Rosenthal’s contract. Rosenthal, himself, confirmed the story.
Can confirm MLB Network has decided not to bring me back. I’m grateful for the more than 12 years I spent there, and my enduring friendships with on-air personalities, producers and staff. I always strove to maintain my journalistic integrity, and my work reflects that. 1/2
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 4, 2022
It was more than just renewing his contract. Rosenthal saw his airtime and duties significantly dwindle after he was critical of Commissioner Rob Manfred’s handling of the COVID19 pandemic.
That’s how thin-skinned Manfred is. He got rid of perhaps the highest profiled reporter in the sport because he was critical of him. Keep in mind, it’s probably the one time it’s happened with Rosenthal. Like Glass Joe, Manfred couldn’t take one punch.
It didn’t matter to Manfred it exposed MLB Network as state run media. It also didn’t matter no one was going to side with him. What mattered was there was a slight, and he was going to get his revenge.
Really, this can’t bode well for the MLB lockout.
Through the years, the players have publicly questioned Manfred and MLB. Just the other day, Max Scherzer spoke out about the lockout with Jorge Castillo of the LA Times.
Scherzer took aim and unequivocally put the integrity of the game into the debate. He drew clear lines on how the players are fighting for it, and MLB is fighting to suppress player salaries.
Scherzer is far from alone in these sentiments. Therein lies the problem. Manfred sees and hears all of this, and we know he will go out for blood even when it’s not in his and the sport’s best interests.
Everything said by the players and the MLBPA will likely force Manfred to dig his heels in further. He will seek a way to have his revenge. In all likelihood, he will drag it out as long as he can to try to declare complete victory.
That’s exactly what he did with Rosenthal. He waited over a year, and after punishing him, he got rid of him for one comment. Considering the history with MLB and the MLBPA, things can be so much worse with the lockout.
Heading into the 2020 season, Jacob deGrom was definitively the best pitcher on the planet. He was coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards, and he was doing things only Hall of Fame pitchers do. Certainly, the Hall of Fame was on deGrom’s mind as he told us all he wanted to be an inner circle Hall of Famer.
Certainly, deGrom was well on his way to carving a path to the Hall of Fame. After all, he was fifth all-time in ERA+. He was bettering Tom Seaver‘s New York Mets records. He was otherworldly great. Think Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000.
Then, the pandemic struck. The 2020 season was shortened, and deGrom would suffer an injury which would just about end his chances of winning a third straight Cy Young. deGrom would being the 2021 season pitching better than he ever has, which is saying something. However, again injury would strike limiting deGrom to just 15 starts. Despite the injury, he still finished in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting.
However, for deGrom, it isn’t about Cy Youngs. Well, it is in part, but that is just part of the larger picture. Really, when it comes to deGrom’s career, it is about two things: (1) World Series rings; and (2) the Baseball Hall of Fame.
As of this moment, he has a 43.4 WAR with a 40.8 WAR7 and a 42.1 JAWS. The average Hall of Fame pitcher has a 73.0 WAR, 49.8 WAR, and a 61.4 JAWS. That puts the 33 year old deGrom in an interesting position.
Right now, he is 39.6 WAR behind the average Hall of Fame pitcher. For WAR7, he is only 6.4 behind the average Hall of Famer. He is 19.7 behind the average Hall of Famer in terms of JAWS. In some ways, that is actually achievable for deGrom.
Consider from 2018-2019, deGrom AVERAGED an 8.9 WAR (pitching only). If he puts together another two year stretch like that, and as we saw last year, he can, deGrom would have a 61.2 WAR. That puts him within an ear shot of the 73.0 mark. More than that, his peak numbers will be through the roof. He will have a 51.7 WAR7, which would be a giant step above the current standard. His JAWS would then be 56.5, which would be a hair behind the standard.
Keep in mind, narrative matters. As we see with players like Sandy Koufax having an absolutely dominant peak at a higher level than anyone else matters. That would certainly describe deGrom if he can put 2-3 great seasons under his belt.
On that front, this could be where Max Scherzer helps him. Scherzer was a pitcher who did not look like a Hall of Famer until he turned 28. From that point forward, he put together a stretch of nine consecutive Cy Young and Hall of Fame caliber seasons. If there is anyone who knows what a pitcher needs to do from their mid-30s to stay dominant towards their 40s, it is Scherzer.
With deGrom having a true peer in Scherzer in the rotation, not only will deGrom have a better opportunity to win a World Series, but he will also increase his Hall of Fame chances. Whenever the lockout ends, deGrom’s path towards the Hall of Fame and a World Series title will begin anew.
While Buck Showalter may not have been the right fit for the New York Mets job, this job was the perfect fit for him. This is a job where Showalter can cement his legacy, and depending on how everything goes, it’s possible he has a shot at the Hall of Fame.
As we have seen with the media coverage, Showalter has been well respected in the game. That goes to every media person, and we have seen former players Zack Britton, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Teixeira speak highly of him. There are reasons why that is the case.
Showalter has his strengths. He is a good communicator. He develops players. He knows this game inside and out. No, he doesn’t know analytics well, and he has been adverse to them, but he’s a lifer who knows the game.
The biggest knock on Showalter is teams have won after he has left. The 1996 Yankees. The 2001 Diamondbacks. Both World Series championships came after Showalter has been fired. As we saw with the Britton issue in the ALDS, there are a number of reasons why Showalter hasn’t won a ring..
However, the Mets now present that opportunity. He has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer atop the rotation, that’s even better than Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling (who Showalter didn’t win with). As we have seen before the lockout, Steve Cohen is going to do everything he can to win the 2022 World Series. He is spending like we haven’t seen a team spend in ages, perhaps ever.
This will be a Mets team built to win in the postseason. There is the vaunted top of the rotation. Francisco Lindor in year two. Brandon Nimmo moving to right field where he will thrive along Starling Marte. Pete Alonso hitting tape measure shots. The pieces are there, and there will be more to come. The challenge for Showalter will be to let his best players win instead of going to Jack McDowell or Ubaldo Jimenez.
If he is now truly receptive to analytics for the first time in his career, wonderful things can and will happen. His reward will be completely changing the narrative on his career. Now, Showalter will be the manager who builds winners and can take them over the top.
He will then have at least three Manager of the Year awards. By winning a World Series, he would join Bobby Cox, Jim Leyland, and Tony La Russa as the only managers to win three awards and a World Series. Leyland is the only one not in the Hall of Fame. If Showalter were to win two World Series, he would join Sparky Anderson, Tommy Lasorda, Joe Torre, and La Russa as the only managers to win multiple Manager of the Year awards and multiple World Series.
The Mets will put Showalter in a position to win those World Series titles. That will come in the form of both players and with information. Everything will be there for Showalter. If he is willing to grow as a manager and accept the more collaborative role, he will get that elusive ring, and quite possibly, he will be enshrined in Cooperstown.
The New York Mets slipped the signing of Max Scherzer in under the wire before the owners voted unanimously for a lockout. That means they officially can’t pursue free agents and can’t make trades (again, not officially), so they now need to turn their attention elsewhere.
That’s probably a good thing for this team because they need a manager. Really, aside from having Jeremy Hefner as pitching coach, they need to assemble an entire coaching staff.
It seems the early odds-on favorite is Brad Ausmus. Sandy Alderson wanted to hire him previously. Billy Eppler did hire him before he was told to fire him. It’s assumed Steve Cohen doesn’t want a first time manager.
The popular choice seems to be Buck Showalter, but it’s hard to see the fit. Alderson wants to script and control managers, and Showalter isn’t that guy. Also, Eppler fired Mike Scioscia, who was very much cut from the same cloth as Showalter.
There are bound to be many names we haven’t considered. After all, that’s what we saw with the front office search.
While it’ll probably never happen, it’ll be great to see Willie Randolph‘s name in the mix. We know he can handle New York, and he has unfinished business here. It would be great to see him get another chance.
Overall, we don’t know who the Mets are targeting. What we do know is the players are locked out, and they probably will be for some time. With that being the case, the Mets are probably going to go full bore trying to hire a new manager.
With Javier Báez signing with the Detroit Tigers, the New York Mets are likely still looking for another infielder. One of the issues the Mets have is the pure second and third base options aren’t all that good.
The free agent shortstop class is so deep, and if the Mets could offer enough money, they could entice a shortstop to move to third. As we saw with Max Scherzer, the Mets have the money and are willing to offer it.
According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Seattle Mariners have had discussions with Trevor Story to be their third baseman. Apparently, they’re not the only team.
Hopefully, the Mets are one of those teams as they still need to address third base. Given how Story has seen his once elite defense at short go from an 18 OAA two years ago to a -7 last year, it’s probably time for a switch for the 29 year old.
The decline coincided with him losing just a little bit of burst defensively. His speed has fallen from elite to good. That drop may impact his ability to play short but not third.
If you’re Story, the Mets are a good place to make that transition. Their shifting and positioning were extremely effective in putting players in a good position to make a play. He also gets to play next to Francisco Lindor who covers a lot of ground making his life a little easier.
A Lindor/Story left side of the infield has the potential to be elite defensively. It could also be very good offensively.
On this topic, let’s get one thing out of the way. There’s no reason to be concerned about Story leaving Coors Field. If you can hit at Coors, you can hit.
Of course, this refers to neutralized stats. In a down year at the plate, Story was a 103 OPS+. His career mark is 112. Generally speaking, he’s an above average hitter.
This is seen through the stats available on Baseball Savant. He hits the ball very hard, and he’s capable of squaring it up. Really looking at everything, there’s no overt reason why he had a down year by his standards, which means, he’s really likely going to go back to being the quality hitter he is.
If Story is willing to make the switch, he’d probably succeed in his attempts more in New York than anywhere else. He’s got the defensive potential and bat to be a star with the Mets. In many ways, it makes sense for both sides, and it seems like it could be a good fit.
If you want to know the importance of what the Max Scherzer signing with the New York Mets is, look to the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s really the last time we saw this.
The Diamondbacks had added Curt Schilling at the 2000 trade deadline, but that team couldn’t stay in the race. That wouldn’t be an issue the following season.
Schilling combined with Randy Johnson to be one of the most lethal, if not the most lethal co-aces atop a rotation. The result was a 92 win season.
It’s difficult to argue they didn’t do it themselves. Schilling and Johnson both pitched over 249 innings and had an ERA under 3.00. The rest of the rotation struggled, and the bullpen wasn’t great aside from Byung-Hun Kim and Bret Prinz.
Offensively, that was one of the worst teams you could imagine for a World Series winner. Consider, Luis Gonzalez had a phenomenal year hitting 57 homers, and they still only had a team 97 wRC+.
That’s what having two of the best pitchers in all of baseball means. Their innings and greatness masks so much. Case-in-point, that team was 52-18 when Schilling and Johnson pitched, and they were 40-52 when they didn’t.
It was a feat replicated in the postseason. The Diamondbacks were 9-2 when they pitched, and they were 2-4 when they didn’t.
Good pitching beats good hitting. Great pitching wins World Series nearly single-handedly. That was the case in 2001, and it may be the case again in 2022.
With all due respect to Schilling and Johnson, if Jacob deGrom is healthy, deGrom and Scherzer are a more formidable duo.
Consider this. Schilling’s best ERA+ was 159, and his best FIP was 2.40. deGrom has bested that ERA+ three times and the FIP twice. Scherzer had a better ERA+ three times.
Johnson was on a different level than Schilling with a career best 197 ERA+ and 2.04 FIP. deGrom bettered than ERA+ and FIP once, and it would’ve been twice if he was healthy in 2021.
In addition to deGrom and Scherzer being the better duo, the 2022 Mets promise to be a better roster. This team is not done with their offseason, and they still have players like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo.
With deGrom and Scherzer, this Mets team is already a World Series contender. We need look no further than the 2001 Diamondbacks as proof of that. How great they will be will be determined by the rest of this offseason.