Matt Reynolds

Mets Bullpen Blows It Against the Fire Sale Yankees

With Brandon Nimmo being the guy almost traded away in the Jay Bruce trade, he was supposed to be the guy who hit the big homer tonight. In the second inning, Wilmer Flores reminded us all that it was his schtick:

The homer gave the Mets a 1-0 lead they would relinquish in the fourth inning on a Logan Verrett wild pitch allowing Didi Gregorious to score from third.  The Mets would fall behind 3-1 in the fifth. Brett Gardner doubled to right hitting the side wall permitting Rob Refsnyder to score from first.  Gardner would come around to score on a Jacoby Ellsbury RBI single. 

The Yankees should have been up by more, but Gardner killed a first inning rally with his legs:

The final line for Verrett would be five innings, four hits, three runs, three earned, three walks, and two strikeouts. 

The Mets got one back in the bottom of the fifth featuring their two young left-handed outfielders. Nimmo pinch hit for Verrett. He didn’t get his homer, but he hit a single to start a rally. He came around to score on a Michael Conforto one out RBI double off CC Sabathia. It was Conforto’s first ever regular season extra base hit off a left-handed pitcher. Conforto only got the chance because Justin Ruggiano was forced to leave the game with an injury. 

That set the stage for Matt Reynolds in the sixth. 

Flores led off with an excuse me infield single off Yankees reliever Richard BleierTravis d’Arnaud, who was not traded for Jonathan Lucroy, hit an opposite field single. d’Arnaud quietly had a good night going 2-5 with a run scored. That run scored would be on an absolute bomb off Reynolds’ bat giving the Mets a 5-3 lead. 

The Mets would lose the lead with Terry Collins getting a little too cute in the eighth inning. 

With two lefties leading off the eighth, Collins turned to Jerry Blevins to start the inning. Blevins allowed a leadoff walk to Gardner before striking out Ellsbury. Collins then turned to Addison Reed, who is traditionally poor with inherited runners.  He was again tonight. 

Brian McCann greeted Reed with a single sending Gardner to third. Ronald Torreyes would take second on a wild pitch.  Gregorious would have a terrific at bat flaring a single into left field scoring both Gardner and Torreyes tying the game at 5-5. It was the first run Reed has allowed since June 23rd. 

Jeurys Familia struggled himself in the ninth. He couldn’t get a feel for the strikezone, and he was giving d’Arnaud a workout spiking his sinker. He was completely bailed out by Curtis Granderson who chased down a ball by the right field line flat of robbing Aaron Hicks of an extra base hit and possibly an RBI. 
Familia navigated his way out of the inning despite allowing the one out walk to Austin Romine. Romine stole second with Familia not paying him any attention. Romine could’ve taken third as d’Arnaud skipped it past Reynolds and into center field, but Romine didn’t notice it in time. Despite all that, Familia bore down and get out if the inning. 

Seth Lugo, the last man in the bullpen, wouldn’t be as lucky. He issued a four pitch walk to Ellsbury, and Mark Teixeira beat the shift with an opposite field single. Ben Gamel laid down a sac bunt Lugo fielded. However, he would reach safely as Rene Rivera, who was double switched into the game, somehow directed Lugo to go to third. Lugo couldn’t get the speedy Ellsbury at third. He would later score on a Starlin Castro sac fly to make it 6-5. 

That set the stage for new Yankee closer Dellin Betances. He was greeted with a Loney double, and he would move to third on a Reynolds sac bunt. It would take a home run to score Loney from third on s fly ball to the outfield. You’re also giving an out to Betances, who is a great reliever. 

Alejandro De Aza was then hit by a pitch. He took off for second on a Rivera ground out to Betances. Betances froze Loney and got Rivera at first. Granderson would then strikeout to end the game. The sac bunt was a strange move at best. 

It was an ugly 6-5 loss helped again with some odd late game Collins decisions. 

Game Notes: Steven Matz pinch hit for Erik Goeddel in the sixth, and he drew a pinch hit walk.  He was needed to pinch hit as the Mets were playing short due to trades, Yoenis Cespedes being unable to play with his quad injury, and the Mets refusal to DL Asdrubal Cabrera for one reason or another. 

Mets July 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered June six back of the Nationals and a half a game ahead of the Marlins for the second Wild Card.  After a 13-13 month, which was their first month at or above .500 since April, the Mets find themselves 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They not only trail the Marlins in the NL East race, but they are 2.5 games behind them for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (D). It has been more of the same for d’Arnaud in July, and as such, the Mets were forced to inquire on Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline.  On the bright side, he began to hit for some power hitting two home runs.

Kevin Plawecki (F). Plawecki was sent down to AAA, and he began hitting like everyone else in the Pacific Coast League.  The jury is still out on him.

Rene Rivera (B+).  While his defense has dipped a bit, Rivera has been absolutely raking.  He has clearly benefitted from facing left-hand pitching.  Still, he’s here to be the defensive backup, and he hasn’t been as great as he has been in year’s past.

Lucas Duda (Inc). He missed the entire month with his back injuries, and no one knows when or if he will be able to return in 2016.

James Loney (B). Loney has continued to hit, but his power numbers have regressed to the mean.  He still can’t hit lefties a lick.  Furthermore, his defense hasn’t been great.  His error in the Rockies game helped lead to a loss.

Neil Walker (C).  He was actually hitting worse in June than he had been in May and June, which is saying something.  He was even briefly benched by Terry Collins.  Then he woke up in the Rockies series, and yesterday he hit a home run that just might turn his and the Mets season around.

David Wright (Inc.).  Wright is not going to play again in 2016 due to the neck surgery.

Asdrubal Cabrera (C). Cabrera started out hot to start the month, but he cooled off.  As a result, he put up similar numbers that he did in May and June.  On the bright side, he did break his 0-32 streak with runners in scoring position.  He had a nasty injury yesterday that threatens to end his season early.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers.  The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (Inc).  Reynolds only played in one game during the month before getting sent down to AAA.

Ty Kelly (Inc).  Kelly did not play in the majors during the month of July, and his 40 man roster spot appears tenuous.  If the Mets make a move for a position player, he will likely be the first to be removed from the roster.

Michael Conforto (C+)  After an initial hot streak when he came back up, he has cooled off, possibly in part to Terry Collins giving him inconsistent playing time again, and possibly in part to him having to learn center field and right field on the fly given Cespedes’ and Lagares’ injuries.  For what it’s worth, he has handled both defensive positions well.

Yoenis Cespedes (B+). While his power numbers have decreased with his injured quad, he has become more patient at the plate putting up a season high .392 OBP in July.  His power is still there with a .530 SLG; it’s just that those balls are doubles now instead of homers.  His injury has hurt the team as he can no longer play center.

Curtis Granderson (C-). Granderson had his second worst month of the season hitting .235/.337/.410, and he is not playing right field at the Gold Glove level he played it last year.

Juan Lagares (D). It turns out Lagares just couldn’t play through the torn ligament in his left thumb hitting .160/.263/.300.  He has shut it down, and he is going to get surgery to repair the problem.

Alejandro De Aza (A+). De Aza had an amazing month of July .300/.500/.531. As you can plainly see, he’s hitting everything including lefties.  It speaks a lot about both him and the Mets that he was their best offensive player during the month.

Brandon Nimmo (B-).  In 13 games, Nimmo was showed signs he could be a major league player in the near future in his two stints with the Mets.  Overall, he hit .229/.325/.314 with one huge home run.  For some reason, even with the gap in center field, Collins still refuses to let him play there.

Jose Reyes (C)  Reyes quickly acclimated to third defensively as he appeared to have been a very good defender at the position for years.  At the plate, he had some uncharacteristically good power numbers while struggling to get on base with a .239/.278/.493 batting line.  He has been unable to hit righties doing most of his damage against lefties.  He is currently on the disabled list with an intercostal strain, and it is unknown when he can return.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc). The Texas Rangers AAA castoff has played in only two games for the Mets going 1-4.

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey only made one start in July before the Mets finally discovered he has thoracic outlet syndrome which may explain the struggles he has had all year.  Harvey had season ending surgery, and he will hopefully return in 2017.

Jacob deGrom (B+).  In a month where the Mets needed someone to step up, degrom heeded the call posting a 3-1 record with a 2.27 ERA including his first shutout.  However, he did have a clunker against the Marlins who are now ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card standings.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has lost some velocity and movement on his pitches since it was discovered he is dealing with a bone spur in his pitching elbow.  For the month, he was a respectable 1-2 with a 2.45 ERA.  The main cause for concern is his walks have gone up.

Steven Matz (C-). Matz has been clearly bothered by the bone spurs, but he is starting to learn how to pitch effectively with him.  He rebounded from a terrible June to post a 1-4 record with a 3.19 ERA.

Bartolo Colon (D-). Aside from one good start in the second end of the double header against the Cardinals, Colon has had a miserable month with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.347 WHIP.

Logan Verrett (B-). Verrett was thrust into the starting rotation with the Harvey season ending injury.  He has performed well enough as a starter going 0-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.240 WHIP that the Mets did not feel compelled to go out and get a starter during the trade deadline or call up a pitcher like Gabriel Ynoa to take his place in the rotation.

Jeurys Familia (C-) Familia was walking a tightrope for a while with his struggling command, and he finally blew two saves in back-to-back appearances that were just devastating.

Addison Reed (A+).  In 13 innings, only five people reached base against him, and none of them scored.

Jim Henderson (Inc).  Henderson is still on the disabled list, and he suffered a leg injury during his rehab stint.  There is no telling when or if he will be able to return.

Hansel Robles (A+). When the Mets were looking for a veteran seventh inning reliever, Robles just went out there and took the job.  In 10 appearances he was 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA.

Jerry Blevins (A).  Aside from his last game when he had a minor hiccup, Blevins had a terrific July allowing just two hits and one earned run in 13 appearances.

Antonio Bastardo (F). Bastardo seemed to be slowly turning things around in non-pressure situtations.  However, as we saw Carlos Gonzalez launch one near the Shea Bridge, Bastardo cannot be relied upon in any game that is remotely close.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) Didn’t pitch in the majors in June as he’s been demoted to AA.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin is on the seven day disabled list with a shoulder injury.  There is no timetable for his return.

Erik Goeddel (F).  Goeddel really struggled in the month of July posting a 6.10 ERA in 11 appearances.

Seth Lugo (B) He was electric in this first three appearances even making Anthony Rizzo look silly by striking him out with a curveball that hit Rizzo’s foot.  He has been solid since then, but he has come back to earth a bit.  For the month, he has a 2.60 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP.  He would be helped by getting regular work.

Terry Collins (F). While it could be argued he has been dealing with an injury plagued roster (he has), Collins still does not make sound decisions on a day-in and day-out basis.  For the man who said, the Mets couldn’t be in a position to both win-now and develop players like Conforto, he has managed to do neither.  He also seemingly alienated his players at the All Start Game.

Who To Trade?

Last year, the Mets parted with number of pitching prospects in a drive to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2006.  Over the course of this past year, we have seen some of them actually pitching in the major leagues:

  • In 16 starts for the Detroit Tigers, Michael Fulmer is 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP.  He is the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year Award, and he should receive some Cy Young Award votes at the end of the season.
  • The Tigers traded Luis Cessa in the offseason to the New York Yankees.  Cessa has pitched briefly out of the bullpen for the Yankees this year.  In his six appearances, he has pitched 13.2 innings going 1-0 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.244 WHIP.
  • The Atlanta Braves do not seem quite sure what to make of John Gant and his quirky delivery, but they seem to be convinced he’s a major league caliber pitcher.  Out of the bullpen, Gant has made seven appearances with no record, a 6.17 ERA, and a 1.714 WHIP.  As a starter, Gant has performed considerably better going 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP.

As we know, the Mets got Yoenis Cespedes for Fulmer and Cessa.  Gant was part of a trade that netted the Mets Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson.  The Mets also made trades of varying success to obtain Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, and Eric O’Flaherty.  Overall, the Mets gave up valuable pieces to obtain major league players that helped them win the National League Pennant.

As of right now, the Mets are in a similar situation to where they were last season.  They need to assess what they need (starter, reliever, and right handed bat off the bench) and what they are willing to trade to obtain those pieces.  Sooner or later, the right player is going to come along, and the Mets are going to have to decide whether to trade next year’s Fulmer for this year’s Cespedes.  The issue becomes who do you and who do you not trade.  Here is a look at the Mets top prospects teams are sure to be inquiring about.

Amed Rosario

Each and every team is going to inquire on Rosario, and the answer time and time again is going to be no.  It’s for good reason as well.  When the Mets signed him out of the Dominican Republic, his defense was seen as a given, but there were concerns about his bat.  Rosario has put many of those concerns to bed by hitting .321/.372/.464 with 19 doubles, 12 triples, three homers and 56 RBI between St. Lucie and Binghamton.  He was a Florida State Leauge All Star, on the Team World Roster for the Future’s Game, and he was named MLB.com‘s 18th best prospect.  Unless you are talking a Mike Trout trade, Rosario is off the table.

Dominic Smith

This is where things start to get a little interesting as Smith has really taken off since Rosario joined him in AA hitting .336/.398/.626 with five doubles, one triples, eight homers and 27 RBI.  Smith is starting to show the power that could take him from a very good prospect to an elite prospect with the ranks of Rosario.  Already, Smith is a plus defender at first base, and he has the ability to drive the ball gap-to-gap.  If you trade him, you could be trading away the next John Olerud or worse if his power game continues to develop.  If you keep him, you risk him becoming the next James Loney.  Yes, Loney has been a quality major league first baseman, but Loney should never be what stands between you and getting an All Star or difference maker at the trade deadline that could put the team over the top.

Dilson Herrera

It seems that since Herrera came to the Mets in the Marlon Byrd trade, he was touted as the Mets second baseman of the future.  He was someone who could handle the position well defensively while being a real force at the plate.  He showed that he has unique power for the position.  Due to injuries in 2014, the Mets brought him up from AA to play in the majors.  Last year, he was seen as an offensive spark when a number of players went down due to injury.  This year he hasn’t been a consideration at all.  He has struggled in AAA hitting .277/.331/.471 in the Pacific Coast League which is a hitter’s league.  Part of that might be teams figuring him out.  Part of that may be him dealing with a shoulder injury sapping him of some of his offensive ability and having him fall into bad habits at the plate.  He is less patient at the plate, and he is lunging for balls he wouldn’t last year.  If you move him, you are moving the guy that could be a multiple time All Star.  If you don’t, you just might be hanging onto a guy that may never figure it out.

Gavin Cecchini

Cecchini is in a tough position in the Mets organization.  He isn’t seen as good a prospect at short as Rosario, and he has had some trouble handling the position at Cashman Field, who has an infield that is not kind to infielders.  He’s a good hitter hitting .315/.392/.441 with 18 doubles, two triples, five homers, and 40 RBI, and he reminds you of a right-handed Daniel Murphy at the plate.  However, he is not considered as good of an offensive prospect as an Herrera.  Furthermore, his bat does not have the power profile that would play at third or the outfield.  By many accounts, Cecchini will play in the majors one day.  What you don’t know is what he will be.  Will he be the next Murphy at the plate with similar defensive versatility?  With that in mind, will he develop power as he gets older and fills out like Murphy did?  Will he turn into the next Matt Reynolds – a major league utility player?  Again, you don’t want to lose the next Murphy for a rental, but you also don’t want to miss out on someone because you wnated to keep another Reynolds or Joe McEwing type of player.

Kevin Plawecki

Most Mets fans would jump at the opportunity to trade him.  He hasn’t hit at all in the majors despite given extended looks on two different occassions.  However, Plawecki has been a good defensive catcher and pitch framer.  He was also once considered a prospect who could push Travis d’Arnaud for playing time.  Keep in mind that since his demotion, Plawecki is hitting .291/.347/.512 with four doubles, five homers, and 21 RBI in 27 games.  These numbers aren’t exciting, especially in the Pacific Coast League, but it shows he is starting to become more patient at the plate and more selective swinging at pitches.  Also keep in mind that catcher is a position that players tend to develop later in their careers than other positions.  Plawecki could still very well be the Mets catcher of the future, or he could be a solid backup.  He may not be the type of player who should hold up a deal, but he definitively is a player you want to protect if at all possible.

Ultimately, it seems like one of the aforementioned players are going to have to be traded if the Mets want to acquire an impact player like Jonathan Lucroy.  However, they need to be very careful about which one.

In an ideal world, Rosario and Smith are non-starters.  These are two players who are excelling in AA at a young age, and they appear primed to contribute to the Mets sooner than expected.  You do not ever want to give up a Rosario or a Smith.  These players should prove to be fixtures in the Mets lineup for ten plus years.  Still, you’re going to have to give up someone if you are going to want to add that last piece who could put the Mets over the top in 2016.

That piece appears to be between Herrera and Cecchini.  The Mets may very well have a preference between these two players, and coming into this season, it seemed like Herrera.  However, that does not mean they still feel the same way, nor does it mean that other teams think similarly.  Regardless of how the Mets feel, a team may force their hand to trade one or the other to hopefully trade for this year’s version of Yoenis Cespedes.  In the end, it seems like the Mets will be giving up a Herrera or a Cecchini like they did with Fulmer last year if they want to make a move.

The hope is that the player has the impact Cespedes did last year and that the Mets take the next step and win the 2016 World Series.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Minors

 

The RISP Issue

Time and time again, we have all seen the Mets fail to get a base hit with a runner in scoring position.  It should come as no surprise to anyone that the Mets woeful .207 team batting average with runners in scoring position is the worst in all of Major League Baseball.  It is 53 points lower than the .260 league average and 89 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals .296 team batting average with runners in scoring position.  It gets worse.  The Mets have a .288 team OPB with runners in scoring position, which is again the worst in the Major Leagues.  This is 49 points lower than the league average .337 OBP with runners in scoring position, and it is 90 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals league leading .378 team OBP with runners in scoring position.

At this point, what usually follows is a debate between traditional fans and fans that follow more of a stats based approach.  Traditional fans believe hitting with runners in scoring position is a real skill set, and if a team is unable to hit with runners in scoring position, a team will be unable to score runs.  Stat based fans will tell you hitting with runners in scoring position isn’t an actual skill, and like anything else, everything tends to regress to the mean.  Regardless of your point-of-view, all fans tend to subscribe to the back of the baseball card concept wherein players tend to play to their seasonal averages on a year-in and year-out basis.  With that common ground in mind, here are how the current Mets players have fared with runners in scoring position along with the amount of times they have come up this year with a runner in scoring position:

Player PA 2016 Career
Asdrubal Cabrera 70 .180 .256
Eric Campbell 19 .125 .168
Yoenis Cespedes 70 .254 .301
Michael Conforto 56 .250 .256
Travis d’Arnaud 24 .182 .224
Alejandro De Aza 23 .050 .294
Lucas Duda 34 .185 .235
Wilmer Flores 41 .297 .270
Curtis Granderson 73 .274 .242
Kelly Johnson 50 .214 .261
Ty Kelly 10 .111 .111
Juan Lagares 21 .158 .271
James Loney 37 .281 .302
Brandon Nimmo 11 .200 .200
Kevin Plawecki 30 .240 .274
Jose Reyes 8 .167 .285
Matt Reynolds 12 .250 .250
Rene Rivera 31 .259 .235
Neil Walker 75 .254 .276
David Wright 38 .226 .293

* Kelly Johnson’s stats includes his 2016 stats from his 49 games with the Braves this year

While much of the ills of the season has been pinned on Campbell, Kelly, and Reynolds, the three of them have combine for only 41 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.  To that end, another scapegoat, De Aza, has not hit whatsoever with runners in scoring position.  These four batters have combined for 63 plate appearances which is still less than the plate appearances the either Cabrera, Cespedes, Granderson, or Walker have had individually this year.

Of that group, Granderson is the only batter who is hitting well with runners in scoring position.  In fact, he is the only one who is hitting higher than his career average with runners in scoring position.  Considering the fact that Cabrera has not gotten a hit with a runner in scoring position since April, it should be no surprise that he is the biggest culprit of the group.

The one encouraging sign is that most of these Mets players are underachieving with runners in scoring position. If these players finish the rest of the year producing at the rate they have done throughout their careers, this Mets team will start to score many more runs. 

 

Highlighting Terry Collins’ Poor First Half

With homefield advantage on the line and the Mets in playoff position, Terry Collins managed the All Star Game like seemingly every other manager has previously managed the All Star Game.  He put more of a premium on getting all the players in the game than winning the game.  Well, everyone except his own players Jeurys Familia and Bartolo Colon.  Other than the Mets players apparently being upset at this, it is hard to criticize Collins for how he managed the All Star Game.  Still, there are many managerial decisions Collins has made in the first half of the season that invite scrutiny.

First and foremost, there is the way he handled Michael Conforto.  First, he didn’t let him get any time playing right field in Spring Training.  The end result of that was Collins putting Juan Lagares in right and Yoenis Cespedes in center on days that Curtis Granderson was given the day off.  There really is no excuse for putting Lagares, possibly the defensive center fielder in the game, anywhere but center.

The other mistake is not letting Conforto hit against lefties until Madison Bumgarner took the mound.  Collins was hampering his development by doing that.  At the end of the day, this is the Mets best position player prospect, and in many ways, he was the second best hitter on the team.  Collins was willing to sacrifice all that to get Lagares’ bat in the lineup instead of sitting an older Granderson who had the very platoon splits that worried Collins.  By the way, Granderson is also 35 years old and could use the occasional day or two off.  Conforto’s season began to fall apart, and he needed to be sent down to AAA.  By the way, Collins is making the same mistake with Brandon Nimmo.  However, it’s even worse with Nimmo as he’s doing it to get Alejandro De Aza‘s bat in the lineup.

While on the topic of developing players, Kevin Plawecki has faltered for yet another season under Collins’ tutelage.  Last year, there were a number of excuses why Plawecki didn’t succeed from his being rushed to the majors to his sinus issues.  This year, he had no such excuses, and he still didn’t produce.  While Plawecki deserves a large amount of the blame, Collins certainly deserves some of it, especially when his position with Conforto is that he is not here to help players develop as major leaguers when the Mets have a win-now team.

Another major issue this year was Collins’ handing of Jim Henderson.  Henderson was a feel good story that turned into a potential nightmare.  The day after Henderson threw a career high 34 pitches, which is puzzling in its own right, Collins used Henderson to pitch in the very next game.  He did it despite knowing that Henderson needed to be handled lightly due to his having two shoulder surgeries.  He did it even after watching what happened with Johan Santana.  Collins knew all of this, and yet he used Henderson in that spot as he said an April 13th game, the eighth game of the season, was deemed to be a must win game.  Henderson’s production fell off after that, and now he is on the disabled list.

There was also his handling of Noah Syndergaard.  Last year, the Mets wanted to initiate a six man rotation to alleviate some of the early innings Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom pitched early in the season.  The idea was to both keep them healthy and keep them fresh for the length of the season.  To be fair, Collins use of Syndergaard in any one particular start has not been egregious.  However, it was curious how he shoehorned Syndergaard into a relief appearance after Syndergaard was ejected throwing at Chase Utley.  The Mets had an opportunity to rest their ace until his next start.  Instead, Syndergaard got the adrenaline going and was ramped up in a relief appearance on his throw day.  By the way, in Syndergaard’s last start his fastball velocity dropped to 91 MPH, and he left the game with a dead arm.

Speaking of how he is handling pitching, it is amazing that Collins took part in talking Steven Matz out of opting for season ending surgery to address the bone spurs in his elbow that has clearly hampered his pitching.  Not only was Collins willing to risk Matz suffering a more severe injury, he’s also willing to put a limited pitcher on the mound every fifth day.  Keep in mind that since the bone spurs became an issue, Matz has been 0-3 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.430 WHIP.  His slider usage has dropped from 13% to 3% of the time.  It’s always troubling when a manager doesn’t protect his players.  It’s even worse when he doesn’t protect the young injured ones.

There is also the curious drop in production this team has had since May 1st.  Here’s how some of the Mets best hitters have fared since that point:

April Since
Curtis Granderson .241/.347/.471 .238/.335/.453
Neil Walker .307/.337/.625 .232/.318/.345
Asdrubal Cabrera .300/.364/.400 .249/.305/.435
Michael Conforto .365/.442/.676 .148/.217/.303

Now, there are many factors to this including some of these players getting nicked up a bit.  There’s something to be sad for the natural ebbs and flows of a season as well.  There should be some note about the injuries to the players surrounding them.  However, with all that said, these players have had a significant drop off in production under Collins’ watch.  Whether it was helping them make adjustments and finding days for them to get the rest they needed, Collins didn’t do that as their manager.

There have been other issues dealing with Collins in-game management that could be highlighted as well.  To be fair and balanced, it should be pointed out that Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, Matt Reynolds, and Rene Rivera have played far more games than the Mets ever wanted or expected them to play.  It’s hard to expect a manager to win under those circumstances.  It should also be noted that there were significant injuries to David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey which have further weakened the Mets.

Through all of that, Collins still has the Mets in a position to make the postseason.  If he makes better decisions, and the Mets begin playing better, they should be in the postseason, and with that pitching staff, they still have a legitimate chance to return to the World Series.

An Examination of the Jose Reyes Signing

A woman is on the hotel bed before her husband pulls her off the bed. He proceeds to push her. When that isn’t enough, he grabs her around the throat and throws her into a sliding glass door leading out to a balcony. There’s an ensuing crash that stirs security.

The husband and wife are separated by security. The wife requests a medic to come to the hotel to treat injuries to her left leg and scratches to her throat – the same throat her attacker grabbed before throwing her into a glass door. When medics arrive to treat, it’s agreed she should get further treatment at the hospital.  During the time period she is separated from her husband, the wife cooperates with the police and gives them sufficient information to file a police report and have the District Attorney’s Office proceed with pressing charges against the husband.

The prosecution is ready to go to trial. However, the trial never happens. The victim wife refuses to cooperate.  The husband now is a free man. If you didn’t know it by know, that’s what we know happened with Jose Reyes and his wife.

Yes, there are various people saying there could have been any number of things that could have happened in the room that have gone unreported.  That is undeniably true.  You could say there was alcohol or that she was antagonizing him verbally or that she had the audacity to fight back causing Reyes to escalate the violence.  There are a number of scenarios you could conjure up to make the October 31, 2015 incident between Reyes and his wife seem better or worse depending on your point of view.  No matter what you think might have or could have transpired, we don’t know anything different from Reyes’ wife’s account as no one has presented anything contradicting her statements to the police.  Even if you have a doubt in your mind as to everything that transpired, Reyes still hit his wife, and that is inexcusable.

To say the Rockies thought so as well when they released him is not being completely honest.  The Rockies’ shortstop of the future, Trevor Story, has played well enough that they don’t need Reyes.  There is no way you’re considering Reyes at third when you have Nolan Arenado.  Same goes for second with DJ LeMahieu.  It was easy for them to take a principled stand when they had no room for a greatly diminished Reyes on the roster.  It’s a whole other matter when you actually have a need for Reyes as the Mets apparently think they do know when they signed him to presumably play third base.

WHY THE REUNION MAKES SENSE

As a pure baseball decision, a Mets-Reyes reunion makes sense.  He Reyes is flat out a better ballplayer than Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly.  Even with how well he’s played since his recent call-up, it’s hard to fathom that Matt Reynolds is a better baseball player than Reyes.  Maybe, just maybe, you could argue that he’s a better everyday option than Wilmer Flores despite having never played third base in the majors.  In that sense you can understand the signing.

Another reason for the reunion is because everyone remembers what Reyes used to be.  As a Met, he was a .292/.341/.441 hitter who averaged 11 triples and 41 stolen bases a year.  He was electric in the field and on the base paths.  He’s the Mets all-time leader in stolen bases and triples.  He’s the best shortstop in Mets history.  He was a beloved player, and many wish he never left the Mets in the first place.

However, as is apparent with that October 31, 2015 incident, Reyes is not who Mets fans think he is.

WHY REYES ISN’T A FIT FOR THE ROSTER

Since he left the Mets, Reyes has gotten progressively worse. Last year when the Blue Jays were chasing their first playoff berth since 1993, they moved Reyes, who had become a liability, for Troy Tulowitzki.  At that time, Reyes was only hitting .285/.322/.385 with no triples and only 16 stolen bases.  When he went to the Rockies, he complained about the trade and openly stated he wanted out.  He finished the year hitting .259/.291/.368 in Coors Field of all places.  He played a poor shortstop in both places.

Both Coors Field and the Rogers Centre are known as hitter’s parks, and last year Reyes didn’t hit much in either park.  Clearly, the Mets hope is that Reyes will be rejuvenated by becoming a Met again.  It’ll be interesting to see if it comes to be especially since Citi Field is decidedly less hitter friendly than either ballpark Reyes called home last year.  In the event Reyes doesn’t produce, the Mets will be left in a difficult situation as they may need to bench Reyes.  Seeing how he reacted in Colorado, it is fair to question how he would accept a benching.

Ultimately, you could understand the Mets rolling the dice on Reyes if the other options didn’t work.  However, the Mets haven’t tried everything.

Earlier in the year, the Mets passed on Ruben Tejada even though he was better than Reyes last year, has actually played third base, and did a good job as a utility player for the Mets last year.  The Mets still haven’t tried Dilson Herrera at second base this year like they had done in years past.  The Mets made this move before finding out if Yusilesky Gourriel could be a viable option for the team this year.  There are other options on the trade market as well.

However, the Mets decided to sign Reyes despite the fact that he may be a distraction (aside from any perceived clubhouse issues that arose in Colorado).  The Mets will have to address the domestic violence issues upon officially signing Reyes.  They may have to do it more frequently than that.  There may be various advocacy groups who seek to have protests or other efforts to denounce the Mets and Reyes.  It’s the type of situation the Mets tried to separate themselves from back in 2010.

THE K-ROD INCIDENT

In 2010, it was alleged Francisco Rodriguez unleashed a verbal tirade against his girlfriend.  When her father sought to intervene, K-Rod proceeded to punch him.  He continued to punch him and bang the man’s head against a wall.  The Mets initially put K-Rod on the restricted list for two days.  When it was discovered K-Rod injured his thumb in the altercation, the Mets put K-Rod on the disqualified list and withheld the remaining $3.1 million from his 2010 salary.  They further sought to make his contract non-guaranteed, but ultimately backed off that stance once K-Rod filed a grievance.

Unlike Reyes, the charges were not dropped against K-Rod.  In the offseason, he would plead guilty to the misdemeanor.  Part of his sentence was to undergo therapy.  Presumably, this therapy is similar in nature to the therapy Reyes is currently undergoing as part of his MLB suspension.

It is worth mentioning that in 2012 K-Rod was arrested again for domestic violence.  In this incident, it was alleged that he struck his girlfriend in their home (different girlfriend than the one he had in 2010).  K-Rod would not stand trial for this incident as the alleged victim recanted her story that K-Rod caused her injuries, and the two key witnesses were flown back to Venezuela.

In that offseason, K-Rod would re-sign with the Milwaukee Brewers who cheered him after each and every strikeout and each and every scoreless appearance.  It was not too dissimilar to how the Mets fans cheered K-Rod in 2011 when he recorded 23 saves before being traded to the Brewers.

FAN RECEPTION

When Reyes ultimately steps back on the field, he is going to be cheered again by Mets fans.  He will be greeted with JOSE! chants.  This really shouldn’t come as any surprise.

Ultimately, fans want to cheer for players no matter how despicable they are.  Anyone who read the book, The Year the Bad Guys Won, knows about the various and sundry issues with the 1986 Mets.  There was Darryl Strawberry and his having fist fights with his wife.  There was Dwight Gooden‘s problem with drugs that go so bad he missed the championship parade because he was high at his dealer’s apartment in the projects.  Ron Darling, Tim Teufel, Bob Ojeda, and Rick Aguilera got into a bar fight in Houston where they assaulted bouncers who turned out to be off-duty police officers.  This is just a snippet of the problems with this team.  Still, these players are forever revered and will be cheered wherever they go now matter what happens.

They are cheered because they produce.  It’s the same way with this team.  Terry Collins is beloved by many.  However, many overlook his past drunk driving conviction.  Bartolo Colon can seemingly do no wrong except when it comes to using steroids and failing to pay child support.  There are Mets who have done far worse than either of these guys.  Some of these acts are know.  Others aren’t.  Still, fans cheer them for their performance on the field.  In that way, Mets fans are no different than other fans.  We have to look no further than the Yankee fans cheering Aroldis Chapman in his first game back from his own suspension.

WHAT FANS ARE ACTUALLY CHEERING

Still, when Mets fans are cheeering Reyes, they are cheering for a player that beat his wife to the point where she needed to go to the hospital.

Furthermore, most Mets fans, even those who didn’t want Reyes in the first place, still want the team to succeed.  Most will cheer him if he makes a big defensive play or gets a big base hit.  Mets fans cheered Bobby Bonilla when he got hits, and there may be no more reviled Met than him (NOTE: only comparing fan reception as Bonilla has never been charged with a crime).  You may not want Reyes on the team, but you want the Mets to succeed.  No matter where you fall on the spectrum of Reyes, that means you too want Reyes to succeed.

If all goes according to plan, Reyes will be an important part of the Mets, and he will help the Mets win the World Series.  If that is the case then in some sick, twisted way, you could say the best thing that happened to the 2016 Mets was the October 31, 2015 incident.

WHERE I STAND

Being completely honest, I’m going to root for the Mets whether or not Reyes actually plays for them this year.  Even if I won’t purchase any tickets directly from the Mets, I will still use the tickets in my possession.  When Reyes comes up to bat or makes an error, I’ll boo.  I’m not going to participate in any JOSE! chants.  When he gets a hit or makes a good defensive play, I’ll cheer.  It’s the same way I reacted to Bobby Bonilla, even if that is an unfair comparison.

For Reyes, I want him to be worth it.  I want him to do more than show he’s atoned. I want him to speak out on the matter (even if it’s complicated as the statute of limitations has not expired). I want him to show he’s a better person for having gone through this incident. Whether or not October 31, 2015 was an isolated incident, I want the physical altercations between him and his wife to cease. I want his family to be safe. 

On the field, I want the Mets to win the World Series this year no matter who is on the roster.  With that said, it will be a bit unsettling having Reyes be an important part of the equation.  I’m still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that the Mets might be able to win a World Series because Reyes beat his wife.  Having Reyes contribute will take some of the joy out of winning – whether it be a game or a World Series.

 

 

 

 

 

Where’s Dilson Herrera?

There exists two Dilson Herreras.  The first Dilson Herrera is the player who absolutely rakes in the minors hitting .310/.362/.504 over two seasons at AAA.  This is the player the Mets see as their second basemen of the future.  They see him being the Mets everyday second baseman as soon as Opening Day 2017.

Then there is the other Dilson Herrera.  This Herrera has struggled at the plate in his limited time in the majors.  When Daniel Murphy went down in 2014, Herrera struggled in the 18 games he did play hitting only .220/.303/.407.  Last year, when David Wright went down, Herrera was first summoned as the Mets long-term plan to improve the team.  Herrera struggled again only hitting .195/.290/.317 in 25 games.  Ultimately this forced the Mets to start looking elsewhere to fulfill the void left by Wright’s injury.  It seems the Mets believe the Dilson Herrea who has struggled in the majors is the true Dilson Herrera.

In 2016, David Wright went down again.  However, this time, the Mets did not turn to Herrera.  Instead, they went with a combination of Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly until Wilmer Flores returned from the disabled list.  Even when the Mets lost Lucas Duda to his own long-term injury, the Mets still refrained from calling-up Herrera.  Instead, they made a trade for James Loney.  You could make the argument that the Mets could have moved Neil Walker and moved him to third base.  However, the Mets made the arguably rational decision not to ask Walker to play a position he has only played 15 times in his career and a position he hasn’t played in about 10 years.  With that in mind, it didn’t make sense to call-up Herrera as he would have had to stay on the bench.  You want a young player like him getting regular at bats and improving.  It is hard to do that from the bench.  Overall, the Mets seemed content to go with Loney and Flores at the corner infield positions.

Yes, the Mets have struggled offensively with Flores and Loney at the corner infield positions.  However, it’s hard to blame either of them for these struggles.  Loney has hit a respectable .291/.349/.405 since coming over to the Mets.  Since he has returned from the disabled list and taken over third base responsibilities, Flores has hit .262/.319/.415.  The production isn’t exactly awe-inspiring, but they are solid numbers not only for temporary replacements, but also for bottom of the lineup hitters.  Still, the Mets have World Series aspirations, and they realize that if they want to get to that point, they probably need to do better than Loney and Flores on the corners.

Accordingly, the Mets have begun to consider different possibilities.  Next week, the Mets are going to bring in Yulieski Gourriel for a workout presumably to see if he is capable of playing second or third base.  Also, it seems increasingly likely that the Mets will bring Jose Reyes back to Queens to either play second or third.  If the Mets were to bring either Gourriel or Reyes aboard, it is at least possible, that move would require the Mets moving Walker to third.  With that in mind, it is surprising that the Mets haven’t at least investigated the possibility of calling-up Herrera to play second.  It’s simply ponderous.

If you want justification for the Mets decision, you could point to Herrera only hitting .290/.337/.496 in AAA this year.  However, this overlooks the fact that Herrera had an extremely slow start after dealing with some early season injuries.  Since April 24th, Herrera is hitting .301/.354/.488 with 13 doubles, two triples, and 11 homers.  Over the course of the entire season, Herrera is hitting .338/.385/.606 with runners in scoring position.  Herrera is hitting, and he can certainly help the Mets.  It is surprising that the Mets are going to pursue other opportunities before even giving Herrera a look in the majors.  It’s even more surprising given the fact that they have also given Kelly and Matt Reynolds opportunities this year.

The Mets haven’t even tried calling up Herrera through the Mets offensive struggles.  They gave lesser prospects chances at playing time.  Now, they are looking outside the organization for offensive help.  Overall, while no one is saying it publicly, it seems that the Mets are not as confident in Herrera as they once were.  It’s odd that it may have come to this when Herrera is still only 22 years old.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com

It’s Nimmo Time

Upon hearing the news that Yoenis Cespedes will not have to go on the disabled list with his sprained wrist, everyone from Terry Collins to Mr. Met to each and every Mets fan breathed a sigh of relief.  As soon as everyone realizes that Cespedes is day-to-day and Alejandro De Aza will get more playing time, the trepidation may return even after yesterday’s well played game.

Given that prospect, it might be time to call-up Brandon Nimmo up to the majors now to play center until Cespedes is ready to resume playing everyday.

Nimmo has certainly earned the promotion. He has gotten progressively better as the season as progressed. Here are his monthly splits:

  • April .260/.333/.315
  • May .326/.421/.565
  • June .388/.455/.642

Over his last 46 games, Nimmo is hitting .370/.453/.603 with 14 doubles, seven triples, five homers, and 34 RBI. Nimmo’s production is quickly moving from short sample size to true talent level. No matter the case, he’s playing extraordinarily well. This is the precise point you want to bring a player to the majors.

Furthermore, Nimmo helps the Mets in a lot of ways. On a station-to-station team, he’s a top of the order hitter that had the speed to take the extra base. He’s also a good defensive center fielder, which would permit Cespedes to play left field, his Gold Glove position, when he’s capable of returning to the line-up on a full time basis.

There’s just one problem with this line of thinking. It discounts Michael Conforto. This is the same Conforto that was a vital part of the Mets offense not only last year, but this year as well. This is the same Conforto that has risen to each and every challenge before him.

This is also the same Conforto who has hit  .153/.213/.314 in the 42 games he has played since May 1st. Over the past week, he’s 1-14. He’s 4-44 against lefties this year.  There are many reasons why he could be hitting this poorly from his injured wrist to his approach at the plate. Whatever the cause, he’s not figuring it out in the majors right now, and he’s hurting the team in the process. The Mets need to do what is best for him and the team by sending him down to AAA. He can correct his approach there and gain some confidence while batting in the hitter’s haven that is the Pacific Coast League.

In the interim, Nimmo gets his well earned shot. Terry Collins can figure out left field until Cespedes is ready. With his recent play and especially yesterday’s game, it may not hurt to give Matt Reynolds some more games in left field. At least for right now, that is what will be best for the Mets.

It will also benefit the Mets in the future. Nimmo and Conforto are a big part of the Mets future.  Conforto needs to get himself straight at the plate, and eventually, Nimmo has to be thrown into the deep end to see if he can swim. Both can happen now, and both players could be better for it. It’s time to send down Conforto and call-up Nimmo.

Editor’s Note: this article was first published on metsminors.net

Alejandro De Aza Is Better Than This

Seriously, Alejandro De Aza is not as bad a player as he has seemed in his limited time with the Mets.  Up until this season, De Aza was a .267/.337/.405 hitter with a 101 career OPS+.  Essentially, he was an average major league baseball player.  You don’t necessarily want that in your starting lineup day in and day out the way it once appeared he was going to be.  However, a player like that could be a vital and important piece for your bench.

Unfortunately, it has not turned out that way.

It is quite possible this all started when the Mets signed Yoenis Cespedes in the offseason.  At the time the Mets signed De Aza two things were fairly evident: (1) the Mets didn’t have the stomach or money to give Cespedes a contract like the one he was expected to receive in free agency; and (2) he was going to be part of a center field platoon with Juan Lagares.  As it turns out, the Mets got very lucky.  No one really offered Cespedes a fair market value free agent contract allowing him to return to the Mets for what was effectively a one-year deal.  By extension the Mets seemed to be extremely deep in the outfield as their fourth and fifth outfielders, De Aza and Lagares, were major league quality everyday players in some capacity.  It was great on paper.  However, De Aza has clearly suffered from the lack of playing time – playing time he reasonably expected when he signed with the Mets as a free agent.

So far this year, De Aza is only hitting .165/.224/.241 with a 27 OPS+.  He has gone hitless in his last 20 at bats.  In his limited starts (13 games), he is hitting .128/.180/.213.  Keep in mind those stats are inflated due to a 3-4 game he had in a start against the Indians in May.  Other than that De Aza has been flat out terrible.  Things have gotten so bad for him that Terry Collins is starting Matt Reynolds over him in games, and Reynolds had never played a game in the outfield as a professional.  His stats are in Ty Kelly and Eric Campbell territory, and as we’ve seen with him, he’s a much better player than either of these players.  Overall, it is fair to say that De Aza has been affected by the lack of playing time.

As it turns out, De Aza might get a chance to leave an impression on the Mets and turn his season around.  Yesterday, Cespedes had to leave the game with what turned out to be a sprained wrist.  Right now, Cespedes is day-to-day, and in reality, De Aza is the only person on the roster right now who can play center field on a regular basis.  As a result, Collins has no choice but to put De Aza in the lineup until Cespedes is ready to return to the lineup.  As fortune would have it, the Mets are about to begin a four game series against the Atlanta Braves, who despite sweeping the Mets last weekend, are the absolute worst team in baseball.  There really is no excuse for De Aza not to seize this opportunity and start playing better.

Right now, there are some offensive issues overall with the Mets.  One of them is bench production, and De Aza is a large part of that.  Hopefully, De Aza is able to use these starts to turn his season around and help improve the Mets bench.  Both the Mets and De Aza need him to have a big weekend.

Matt Reynolds Is Taking Advantage of This Opportunity 

Sometimes baseball makes no sense. The Mets went from getting swept by a horrendous Atlanta Braves team to sweeping a two game set from a Kansas City Royals team that beat them in the World Series. The Mets did this despite:

  1. Hansel Robles needing to pitch 3.2 innings after Bartolo Colon left four pitches into the game after taking a liner off his pitching hand;
  2. Wilmer Flores stopped hitting and fielding;
  3. Both Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes left the game early with injuries;
  4. Alejandro De Aza appeared in both games; and 
  5. Matt Reynolds emerged as the Mets best left field option

The Matt Reynolds one is a strange one to say the least. 

Reynolds has been a completely different player in his second stint with the Mets (third if you count the 2015 postseason). In Reynolds first stint with the Mets, he hit .100/.182/.100. Given his poor play, there was serious doubt about whether he’d get another shot this year. Then David Wright went on the disabled list due to his neck injury. The Mets were left with little choice but to bring him back to the majors. 

Upon his return, he’s been terrific. He’s hitting .368/.368/.684. In three separate games, he’s delivered with an RBI single. Yesterday, he hit his first career home run. The opposite field shot gave the Mets the lead for good. 

Even more amazing is how he’s been capable in the field. It’s one thing for him to have played well at short and third. He played well defensively at those positions in the minors and college. It’s another to play well defensively in your first ever professional game in left field. It’s a testament to the work he has put in on the side. 

As he becomes more versatile, it makes it harder to send him back down to AAA. When he’s hitting the way he is, it makes it virtually impossible. 

There are many different reasons to believe this is a mirage. Reynolds was only hitting .231/.291/.360 in the Pacific Coast League, which is a hitter’s paradise. His current hot streak has been buttressed by a clearly unsustainable .500 BABIP.  That’s all well and good, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s hot at the plate, and he’s producing. With the Mets offensive wors, they’d be wise to ride this hot streak for as long as it lasts. 

No matter what, Reynolds has fully taken advantage of this opportunity, and he should be lauded for it.  More importantly, he needs to get more playing time while he’s hitting this well.  Hopefully, he will keep it up, and he will make it difficult for the Mets to send him back down when the team is at full strength.