Matt Harvey
Right now, the New York Mets are 12-2, which is the best record in the National League, and they are a half-game behind the 13-2 Boston Red Sox for the best record in baseball.
In getting to that record, the Mets have swept an early World Series favorite Washington Nationals on the road, and they have taken four of six from the Cardinals and Brewers, two teams who are expected to be in the mix for a postseason spot this year.
The Mets pitching staff has three starting pitchers in Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard who have previously had Top 10 Cy Young finishes. Two of those three are pitching well.
The team also has Jeurys Familia who is a former All Star and MLB saves leader, who, right now, is the best reliever in all of baseball.
The group, surrounded by a surprisingly well performing bullpen, has an MLB best 2.58 ERA, eight saves, and 15 holds. They are best in the National League in batting average against, (.204) and WHIP (1.11). They are also top five in the majors in strikeouts (152).
In MLB’s late and close category, the Mets offense has scored the second most doubles in the majors and the second most runs and RBI in the National League,
With the Mets pitching and clutch hitting, the Mets are fifth in the majors in run differential.
This is a Mets team with a good to great track record. The team built on pitching is pitching better than anyone. They are beating good teams. They are winning games. The result?
ESPN ranks them as the fourth best team in baseball after ranking them ninth.
CBS Sports moved the Mets up two spots from sixth to fourth in their power rankings.
USA Today moved the Mets up one spot to fifth in their rankings.
MLB.com and Bleacher Report have not yet updated their rankings, but they did have the Mets ranked 11th and 10th respectively last week.
At the core of the problem is not matter how well the Mets play and not matter who they beat, no one is buying this team. Look no further than ESPN’s analysis of the Red Sox and Mets, two teams that got off to identical 12-2 starts:
It took a week, but J.D. Martinez hit his first home run in a Red Sox uniform. He has continued to hit the ball hard, and he and Hanley Ramirez have powered the Red Sox to a 13-2 start. Less happily, a Xander Bogaerts ankle injury interrupted his hot start at the plate; he had delivered nine extra-base hits in nine games.
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The Mets continued their hot start, becoming the 22nd team in the World Series era (since 1903) to start 11-1 or better. Will that start yield postseason success? Of the 21 teams to start 11-1 or better through 12 games before this season, only eight made the postseason, and only three of those won the World Series: the 1955 Dodgers, 1966 Orioles and 1984 Tigers. Of the teams to start that hot in the past 30 seasons, none has even won a playoff series.
Really, it’s fascinating to see how the Red Sox are hitting the ball hard while the Mets are a team in a group that has failed to make the postseason 13 out of 21 times and has not won a postseason series in the past 30 years.
We see the bias, and that’s fine. Let all of Major League Baseball continue to underestimate this Mets team. Hopefully, they will continue to do so all the way to the 2018 World Series.
The Mets are 9-1, and they are now off to the best start in franchise history. However, right now, when it comes to the Mets, this isn’t even the biggest news of the season:
Saturday, April 7th at Washington – Steven Matz
Sunday, April 8th at Washington – Matt Harvey
Monday, April 9th at Miami – Noah Syndergaard
Tuesday, April 10th at Miami – Jacob deGrom
Wednesday, April 11th at Miami – Zack Wheeler
Sometime after 7:10 P.M., after the bottom of the first has ended, the dream will finally be realized. The Five Aces will have finally taken one turn through the rotation. What’s funny about it is the dream was thought to be dead.
In 2015, before Syndergaard and Matz were called up to the majors, Wheeler needed Tommy John surgery. As a result, this meant the dream, which was still in its infancy, would have to wait a year.
Heading into 2016, the Mets re-signed Bartolo Colon to help allow Wheeler to take his time in his rehab. He would have a number of setbacks, and he would never pitch in 2016. That year also saw deGrom, Harvey, and Matz befall season ending injuries themselves.
In 2017, the Mets were once again poised to have them all in the same rotation. However, Matz would need to begin the season on the disabled list. Syndergaard didn’t have an MRI and tore his lat. Harvey and Wheeler would find their way onto the disabled list with stress reactions after they had probably been rushed into the rotation before they were ready.
The progress in 2017 was they at least all made a start in the same season. That was something Generation K never did. In 1995, we saw Jason Isringhausen and Bill Pulsipher in the same rotation. Like with Wheeler, it was discovered Pulsipher needed Tommy John during the ensuing Spring Training. As a result, this meant it was just Isringhausen and Paul Wilson in the rotation.
In 1997, Isringhausen was the only one to pitch for the Mets with Wilson pitching in the minors with shoulder problems and Pulsipher experiencing depression and complications from Tommy John. Pulsipher would be the only one to pitch for the Mets in 1998 with Isringhausen hurt and Wilson hurt and in the minors.
In 1998, Pulipsher was the first to go. He was traded to the Brewers for Mike Kinkade. In 1999, it was Isringhausen’s turn to go as the Mets thought it better to use him to obtain Billy Taylor rather than use him in the bullpen.
Pulsipher came back to the organization in 2000, and he lost the Spring Training competition for the fifth starter spot to Glendon Rusch. Both he and Wilson would get traded that season as the Mets sought reinforcements in Lenny Harris, Bubba Trammell, and Rick White to help them win a World Series.
The odd thing about seeing Generation K all being traded away for supporting pieces was they were supposed to be the leading drive towards a World Series. Overall, they’d never appear in the same rotation, and they would pitch for the Mets in the postseason.
Seeing Generation K’s struggles makes what is happening tonight all the more remarkable. Not only are we finally seeing these five pitchers in the same rotation, but we have already seen them have the success we once expected from Generation K. In fact, they’ve been much more successful.
In many ways, seeing Wheeler start tonight is going to slay many demons for the entire Mets organization.
From the start the Mets have had and the seemingly magic tough Mickey Callaway has had, there is a lot more in store for the Mets. That said, short of David Wright taking the field again, it is going to be hard to envision a more powerful moment that will happen this (regular) season.
If you look at the Mets first eight games of the season, Mickey Callaway has already been tested twice. The first test came in the first five games of the season against the Cardinals and the Phillies.
In those five games, Callaway had to show everyone he wasn’t Gabe Kapler or Aaron Boone. Put another way, he had to show us and his team he knew what he was doing. He showed that mettle which has escaped both Kapler and Boone thus far in his putting his team in their best position to win a game. More than that, he capably sat Brandon Nimmo after a big game and played Juan Lagares by justifying it to the media and his team rather than simply pointing to numbers. Yes, Callaway used the numbers to inform his decision, but he handled his situation capably with no griping from the fans or team.
The next test came much earlier for Callaway than it comes for most managers. That test was whether he had the ability to manage in a big series.
We can argue whether an April series is ever truly a big series. What we cannot argue is Callaway managed it like it was one, and his team responded in kind sweeping the Nationals and announcing this was a team to beat in the National League East.
Part of managing this like a big series was riding his bullpen arms hard. Jeurys Familia pitched 1.2 innings for the save, and he has pitched six innings over his first five appearances. Robert Gsellman pitched two games in the series, and he has made two two inning appearances over a four day span.
Seth Lugo was given the heaviest workload. Two days after pitching two innings, he was used for an inning to close out an 8-2 game. Three days later, he’s pitching three innings and picking up the win in a 12 inning game.
When it is a big series, and when you have short starts from both Matt Harvey and Steven Matz, you can certainly understand why Callaway rode his top guns the way he did. The Mets had a chance to make a statement in that series, and they did.
Now, the Mets are not sneaking up on anyone. We know they’re good, and the rest of baseball knows it now too. The question is how does Callaway handle it.
Does he continue to ask his top relievers to keep going to the well, or do we start to see more innings from Paul Sewald (likely to be demoted when Zack Wheeler is activated), or Jacob Rhame, who made a statement of his own closing out Sunday’s win? Really, how does this Mets team respond to success?
Do they continue looking like a team having fun grinding the salt and pepper shakers? Are they going to be alright with splitting playing time or staying on the bench for stretches?
We don’t know the answer to those questions yet. However, we do see Callaway is the type of manager who can deftly handle these and all questions this team is going to face. Hopefully, we will see Callaway pass this third test with flying colors like he did with the first two tests.
All night long, it appeared Mickey Callaway was content to play with fire. Tonight, he went too long with both Matt Harvey and Robert Gsellman, and it burned the Mets. The question was whether it was going to cost the Mets the game.
Heading into the bottom of the fifth, the Mets had a 4-2 lead with both teams scoring runs off of big homers. The Nationals came in the first when Bryce Harper, who once literally could not hit Harvey, hit a monster two run homer.
In the third, Tanner Roark completely lost the strike zone issuing three straight two out walks. By the time he straightened himself out and threw a strike, Adrian Gonzalez wiould hit it for a grand slam giving the Mets a 4-2 lead:
Adrian Gonzalez’s first home run with the #Mets: a grand slam on Sunday Night Baseball. pic.twitter.com/mmYRe9bs2r
— Today in MLB (@TodayintheMLB) April 9, 2018
The Nationals got a run back in the fourth against a laboring Harvey. Harvey would allow an RBI double to Pedro Severino, and he had his chance to get out of the inning quickly with a Roark comebacker. Harvey couldn’t make the play, but he would eventually get through the inning without allowing another run. Part of the reason why was Anthony Rendon just missed a grand slam off the bat.
In the top of the fifth, Asdrubal Cabrera got a run back with a solo shot giving the Mets a 5-3 lead.
Surprisingly with Harper leading off the fifth, Callaway stuck with Harvey. Well, Harper walked, and Matt Adams walked putting Harvey in immediate trouble. For a split second, it seemed like Harvey would get out of it unscathed when Howie Kendrick hit into the 6-6-3 double play. However, Trea Turner would deliver the RBI single to pull the Nationals within 5-4.
What is interesting is how things would be similar in the seventh inning.
After pitching a scoreless sixth, Callaway sent Gsellman out for a second inning even with Harper set to lead off the inning. Gsellman wanted not part of him and issued a four pitch walk which set the inning off on the wrong foot.
Soon, it was runners on first and second with two outs, and it looked like the Mets were going to possibly get out of the inning. Certainly, it seemed that way when a crossed up Todd Frazier was still able to get Harper out at third. However, this time it was Michael Taylor delivering the key two out RBI single to tie the game at 5-5.
With that, a couple of questionable Callaway decisions helped turn this game into a dogfight and a battle of the bullpens.
The Mets bullpen, Seth Lugo specifically, came up huge in the ninth inning. Harper led off the ninth because Anthony Rendon was picked off by Jerry Blevins. This also meant Blevins was getting pulled from the game because his spot in the order was due up.
Like the rest of the Mets staff, and frankly, MLB, Lugo didn’t want Harper, and he walked him. After throwing away a pickoff attempt and an Adams fly out to center, Harper was on third. In response, Callaway ordered the bases loaded putting the hands directly in Lugo’s hands. He responded with back-to-back strikeouts of Taylor and Severino to send the game into extra innings.
? @seth_lugo ? pic.twitter.com/QdYZtk06Ty
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 9, 2018
While Lugo was out there pitching great over three innings, the Nationals Sammy Solis was mowing down the Mets. Over his two innings of work, he struck out five Mets. With the way Solis was pitching, the turning point of this game was Brandon Kintzler coming into the game because the Mets have tattoed him in the first two games of this series.
It started again with a Juan Lagares bloop single to start the 12th inning. He moved to second on a Amed Rosario sacrifice bunt. The Nationals then walked Conforto to bring up Cespedes in a big spot. Cespedes would deliver with the game winning RBI single to give the Mets a 6-5 lead.
With the 6-5 lead, Callaway turned to Jacob Rhame. This was presumably because Jeurys Familia has been worked hard to start the year. After retiring two straight, he allowed a Wilmer Difo double before getting Adam Eaton out to end the game.
It’s amazing. The Mets went into Washington on a high after beating up on presumably lesser competition. Now, they are 7-1 after sweeping the Nationals in their home ballpark. Better yet, the Nationals had a chance in each game in this series, but the Mets just beat them because maybe, just maybe, the Mets are in fact the better team.
Game Notes: Opposing base stealers are a perfect 11/11 against d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki.
This might have been the Nationals home opener, but this game certainly had the feel of an Opening Day to the season. You had a great pitching matchup with Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg. More than that, as a fan, there was a great sense of anticipation for the matchup. Not just because of the pitching matchup. Not just because of the eagerness to see how the Mets matchup against the Nationals.
No, the biggest headline of this day was Michael Conforto making his 2018 debut.
Given the poor run of luck with significant injuries and the ensuing recoveries, you would expect Mets fans to have trepidation. David Wright and Matt Harvey are Exhibit A and Exhibit B for that. And yet, for some reason, the Mets fans seemed to have nothing but excitement to see their future superstar return to the Mets ahead of schedule.
Mickey Callaway put him in the lineup as the leadoff hitter and as the center fielder.
It wasn’t the greatest of starts for Conforto, who said he wanted to start today because he wanted Strasburg. He struck out in his first at-bat against Strasburg on three pitches. In the bottom of the first, Adam Eaton hit the first pitch over his head for a lead off double. With Anthony Rendon following with a single on a ball Jay Bruce would bobble, it was quickly 1-o Nationals.
Things would get better for Conforto and deGrom.
Bruce would atone for his error by nearly hitting one out against Strasburg. Two quick outs later followed by a Kevin Plawecki walk, the Mets had runners at the corners with surprise starter Jose Reyes at the plate. The Mets didn’t need Reyes to deliver here because Strasburg would balk trying to pick off Plawecki leading to Bruce scoring.
Eaton and Rendon would strike back in the third to give the Nationals the lead again. Eaton walked, and he would score on a Rendon double. From that point forward, it was all Mets.
Yoenis Cespedes lead off the fourth with a game tying home run. As if it wasn’t exciting enough to see Cespedes tying up the game, the Mets would rally in the fifth.
Plawecki led things off with a leadoff single, and he moved to second on a Reyes ground out. After a deGrom strikeout, that meant it was up to Conforto to try to break the tie. Up until this point in the game, he struck out on three pitches, and he hit into a double play. Things did not look great in this at-bat as Strasburg quickly went up 1-2 on him. Then, Conforto showed us just how healthy he is:
This Conforto kids pretty good. pic.twitter.com/wqbhd5CJwK
— John Flanigan (@jflan816) April 5, 2018
His opposite field home run showed us not just the return of his all field power, but also his great approach at the plate. In our “Yes, Virginia” moment, we now knew Conforto was alright.
Now, with a 4-2 lead, this put the game in deGrom’s hands. With his entering the game with an all-time best 1.98 ERA in day games and his being 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in Nationals Park, it looked like it would be smooth sailing for the Mets.
However, this is the Mets and nothing is ever easy. The Nationals quickly loaded the bases with no outs in the sixth. This wasn’t helped by deGrom uncharacteristically issuing back-to-back walks to Rendon and Bryce Harper. With deGrom being the ace that he is, he bore down.
First, he got Ryan Zimmerman to hit a shallow fly to right. Howie Kendrick hit a laser right at Reyes. Finally, deGrom struck out Trea Turner on three straight pitches, the last one looking.
It’s still early in the season, and there are 155 games left to be played, but this may prove to be a seminal moment of the 2018 season because after that we didn’t see the Nationals who tortured the Mets in 2014 and 2016. No, this started to feel like the 2015 season with the Nationals falling apart when pushed by the Mets.
The ungluing happened in the seventh inning.
Turner was ejected for arguing with the home plate umpire, and Brandon Kintzler just didn’t have it.
After the Reyes pop out, Brandon Nimmo pinch hit for deGrom, and he nearly hit one out. Conforto walked. After a borderline strike was called to strike out Asdrubal Cabrera, Cespedes and Bruce would get the benefit of the doubt on close pitches. Both batters would have 3-2 counts. Cespedes walked, and Bruce hit a grand slam giving the Mets an 8-2 lead.
That’s how you put a game on ice.#PapaSlam pic.twitter.com/ITAuyXZXf3
— MLB (@MLB) April 5, 2018
Jerry Blevins and Robert Gsellman would combine to pitch a perfect seventh. Hansel Robles navigated through a one out Rendon double while striking out the side. One his strikeout victims was Harper who is now 1-4 with three strikeouts off Robles. Seth Lugo would bring it home to preserve the 8-2 win.
Overall, the Mets got a big home run from Cespedes. They had an injured player come back and provide a huge home run. One of the Mets aces outpitched one of the Nationals aces. The Nationals had a key player suffer an injury and another one lose their cool. The Nationals bullpen melted down while the Mets bullpen was much better than expected.
If I didn’t know any better, I would swear this was August 2015.
Game Notes: deGrom became the first Met this season to have a quality start. His final line was 6.0 inning, four hits, two runs, one earned, three walks, and five strikeouts. After the sixth inning, Eaton left the game with an injury. He was off to a hot start after tearing his ACL.
Last year when Michael Conforto crumpled down to the ground in pain after a checked swing, it was every bit as much of a gut punch as when Matt Harvey‘s magical 2013 season came to an end because he needed Tommy John surgery. The Mets future and hopes for another World Series was right there. The bright spot in another wise lost and dismal season dimmed.
When you look up torn posterior capsule, you really feared the worst. You feared the worst because of what you learned about the injury, but also because this is the Mets. Things rarely break right for them on the injury front.
As Conforto rehabbed, it seemed as if the timetables for his return kept getting shorter and shorter. With him and the Mets reporting to Spring Training, the May 1st target date seemed a bit aggressive. After all, it was just two years ago when the Mets had given Zack Wheeler and early return date from his own Tommy John surgery only to see that date continuously pushed further back and back until the point Bartolo Colon was solidly entrenched as a starter, and the Mets were calling up Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman to help save their season.
Despite the trepidation many may have had, Conforto continued to get closer and closer to returning. Away from the lights, he played in minor league intrasquad games where he not only homered twice, but he did it off left-handed pitching. One of those left-handed pitchers included last year’s first round draft pick David Peterson.
As the Mets started the season we kept hearing that May 1st target date was getting pushed up not by days but by weeks. And here we are now with Conforto getting activated in advance of the Mets first series against the Nationals.
As luck would have it, he is going to be the first Met to step into the batter’s box against Stephen Strasburg.
Mets fans have quickly become enamored with Brandon Nimmo with his infectious personality, his smiling all the time, and with his ability to draw more walks than Da Vinci. However, Conforto is the Mets player you want up against Strasburg to set the tone for the game, the season series, and for the divisional battle between these two teams. That is, of course, assuming Conforto is 100%.
Trusting a Mets player is fully healthy and recovered from injury is really a feeling Mets fans have grown unaccustomed. Look no further than Harvey whose Tommy John turned to TOS and whose effectiveness and ceiling have fallen off a cliff.
So yes, at the moment, Mets fans should be excited yet cautiously optimistic about the return of Conforto. That first big swing and miss, that head first slide into a base, and that diving play in the outfield is going to take years off our lives. That feeling will subside over time and may emerge whenever it seems Conforto takes just that extra half second before getting off the ground or getting back in the batter’s box.
That’s the life of a Mets fan, and as Mets fans we should all take time to pray his shoulder is really 100%, and that he is about to become the superstar he was on the verge of becoming last year. Once we see he’s really good to go, we can then all cheer with the unbridled enthusiasm we had for him last year.
It’s been a few years since Matt Harvey was Matt Harvey. However, there was hope we would see him again because now the Mets had Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland. That was not only the tandem who you wanted to help fix a pitcher, but they also believed in Harvey. Their belief was enough to convince the Mets not to consider trading him. That faith was something to help give the Mets fans faith in him and the team again in 2018.
For one night, we saw a glimpse of Harvey being a very good pitcher for the Mets yet again.
No, it was not quite vintage Harvey, but he was real good. Instead of pumping it up to the high 90s to near triple digits, he was living in the lower 90s. It didn’t matter because it was a good moving and well located fastball. Put another way, it was good enough to generate a number of swings and misses. Really, he had all of his pitches working for him including his change-up which looked like a real weapon for him.
However, in some sense this actually was vintage Harvey. Through his 86 pitches, he walked just one and struck out five. He limited the Phillies to just one hit and no runs. Like vintage Harvey, he got no run support.
For a while, it looked like it was going to be the Phillies who plated the first run. AJ Ramos was in immediate danger after a Cesar Hernandez bunt single and a Carlos Santana walk. Ramos bore down getting some luck on a hard hit liner hit by Aaron Altherr right at Todd Frazier, and he struck out Rhys Hoskins.
Callaway then went to Jerry Blevins in the sixth inning because that was the moment it called for his LOOGY to get the biggest out of the game. Blevins did just that by getting Odubel Herrera to pop out.
Having weathered the storm, the Mets offense began to go to work against Ben Lively. Before the sixth, Lively had actually matched Harvey zero for zero. However, in the bottom of the sixth, he would be done in by his control and his defense.
Lively put on Yoenis Cespedes by plunking him. Initially, it looked like Lively was going to stop a rally from building as he got Jay Bruce to hit what should have been a double play ball. The only problem for the Phillies is third baseman Scott Kingery stayed home at third. With no one there to field a throw, the only play was at first.
Frazier would make the Phillies pay by ripping an RBI double to left field. After an Adrian Gonzalez ground out, Travis d’Arnaud would deliver an RBI single giving the Mets a 2-0 lead.
With the previous snow out, the Mets decided to skip Seth Lugo in the rotation. With him stretch out to start, and with him having no obvious chance to start over the upcoming week, he was in great position to pitch multiple innings. Lugo did just that by mowing down the Phillies. In his two innings of work, he struck out four of the six batters he faced. The two who did manage to make contact didn’t get it out of the infield.
That left Jeurys Familia his old familiar spot in the ninth inning looking to save a close Mets game. It wasn’t an easy one. A leadoff walk to Altherr quickly turned to first and third with one out. Kingery battled, but he eventually fouled out with Wilmer Flores making a nice play by the dugout. That led to a game ending ground out, and Familia saving the 2-0 win.
One of the things which really stood out in the game was the difference between the Mets and the Phillies choices for manager. Callaway seems in charge, and he has the Mets playing good baseball. More than that, his bullpen management tonight was phenomenal. Gabe Kapler has been a mess, the Phillies are failing to be in position to turn double plays, and the Phillies are now 1-3.
It certainly doesn’t hurt Callaway and the Mets when Harvey is pitching this well.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes got the start making him the last Mets position player to make a start this season. After drawing a walk in his first at-bat, he was thrown out in his stolen base attempt. Frazier had another good game going 2-4 with a run, double, and an RBI.
During Spring Training, the Mets seemed to be going down the same path they always do with their handling of Yoenis Cespedes‘ wrist. He had soreness in the wrist, and the tried to play through it. Finally, he would get a cortisone shot and miss some games. Considering how he has started the season, a crisis was clearly averted. However, it did seem like the injury and how it was handled was a little too reminiscent of how things were handled under the old regime.
Over the last few seasons, the Mets had a culture where they either pressured players to play through potentially serious injuries, or they allowed players to push through without a proper examination. We saw it time and time again.
Cespedes has sat around for days and weeks before being placed on the disabled list. Last year, even with the Mets admitting Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler were not at complete strength, they began the year in the rotation, and eventually, they went down with stress reactions. The Mets were quite vocal in their criticisms about how Steven Matz needed to pitch through this injuries, and in the last two seasons, we have seen him undergo season ending surgeries.
Perhaps the biggest indication there needed to be a change was the Mets handling of Noah Syndergaard last year. After being scratched from a start with what was believed to be biceps tendinitis, Syndergaard refused to get an MRI. In his next start, he lasted just 1.1 innings before having to leave the game with a torn lat. The injury cost him almost four months, and really, it helped cost the Mets the 2017 season.
Something had to change, and the Mets did so at least on paper bringing in new personnel with different ideas on how to both prevent and treat injuries.
Considering the Mets past history coupled with the somewhat questionable handling of Cespedes’ wrist injury in Spring Training, it really made how the Mets were going to handle Anthony Swarzak‘s injury an important test case.
As initially noted by Tim Britton of The Athletic, the Mets did not initially schedule any tests for Swarzak. Theoretically, those test would not even be needed as Swarzak reportedly feeling better the next day. And yet, in a complete change from how things were handled previously, the Mets scheduled a precautionary MRI on Swarzak.
While the reports were Swarzak “only” had a sore left oblique, the team put him on the disabled list and called up Hansel Robles.
Precautionary exams. Putting players on the disabled list immediately. Having a full 25 man roster available for each game. This is a stark contrast to how injuries used to be handled with the Mets, and it is hope we will not see a repeat of the injuries which befell the Mets over the last three seasons.
As the Mets broke camp and began the season, it seemed like this year was going to be different. Seeing how Swarzak’s injury was handled, things really might be different.
If you break it down, the Mets clearest path to the postseason is for the team to win at least 60% of Noah Syndergaard‘s and Jacob deGrom‘s starts. These are the Mets c0-aces, and they are the surest bet each time the Mets go through their rotation. Assuming they make 30 starts a piece, and the rest of the rotation pitches at least .500, the Mets will win at least 87 games, which should be good enough for one of the two Wild Card spots.
While wins are not pitcher dependent, there is usually a correlation between a pitcher pitching very well and his team having a chance to win the game. More often than not, if a pitcher is going to dominate the opposing offense, you are going to see your team win games. Overall, while you may not see Syndergaard or deGrom walk off the mound with the “W,” you may see the team have one once the game is over, and that’s what matters for this discussion.
We have seen both starters accomplish the feat. Back in 2015, the Mets were 20-1o (67%) in games started by deGrom. In 2016, the Mets were 19-12 (61%) in games started by Syndergaard. This isn’t to say it will happen. Rather, it suggests it is possible, and it looked all the more possible in their respective starts.
Still, for the formula to work, the rest of the rotation has to pull together to give the Mets at least a combined .500 record. With the injuries and struggles the past few seasons, that is far from a certainty.
Steven Matz‘s first start had to give you some reason for concern. Yes, he was squeezed by CB Bucknor, but the home plate umpire was not the reason why Matz was leaving pitches up in the hitting zone. Bucknor was just reason why Matz walked three and needed 89 pitches to get through just four innings.
Normally, you say Matz can only go up from here, but that would ignore how the Mets pitching performed in 2016 and 2017.
Where Matz failed, the Mets now need Matt Harvey to step up. Perhaps more than anyone Harvey has symbolized the Mets rise and fall and hopefully their rise again. There was hope with the Mets when Harvey returned in 2015. His ineffectiveness and further injury was a part of the 2017 despair.
Now, Harvey has a manager in Mickey Callaway and pitching coach in Dave Eiland, who believe in his talent. Neither wanted to see Harvery traded, and they gave him one of the top four spots in the starting rotation. Purportedly, they found and fixed the mechanical issue Dan Warthen has been talking about for years and had not been able to fix.
Is Harvey really fixed? We don’t know, and until Harvey puts together a significant number of good starts together, there will be doubters. Understandably, there may be doubters long after that.
What we do know is the Mets need to piece together wins in the games Syndergaard and deGrom do not pitch. Yesterday, Matz didn’t step up to prove he’s the next guy. Jason Vargas won’t pitch for a while, and there are questions after his second half last year. Seth Lugo won the job out of Spring Training, but there are issues about his long term viability in the rotation with his inability to go three times through the order.
That leaves Harvey, and that is why in many ways, the 2018 season truly begins today.