Matt Harvey
Back in 2015, the Mets somehow held onto a Game 5 and series clinching win against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Despite having nothing, Jacob deGrom kept the Dodgers to two runs over six innings. That was more than enough as Daniel Murphy took over that game in what was one of the truly great postseason games a player has ever had.
He’d double home the first run of the game in the first off Zack Greinke. On a fourth inning walk to Lucas Duda, Murphy went first to third against a shifted and lackadaisical Dodgers infield allowing him to score the tying run on a Travis d’Arnaud sacrifice fly.
The big blow came in the sixth when Murphy hit the go-ahead homer putting the Mets up 3-2.
After a scoreless sixth, it was Noah Syndergaard with a scoreless seventh followed by Jeurys Familia recording the six out save to send the Mets to the NLCS and eventually the World Series.
At the time, the Mets seemed to be the young team on the rise. In addition to deGrom, Syndergaard, and Familia, the team had Matt Harvey, Michael Conforto, Steven Matz, and eventually Zack Wheeler again.
The team also had a highly rated farm system, albeit one they raided for this one with a myriad of trades including Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa for Yoenis Cespedes.
In 2016, both teams returned to the postseason. The Mets captured the top Wild Card spot only to be shut out by Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants. That year, the Dodgers would lose in the NLCS to the eventual World Series winning Chicago Cubs (two years later and that sentence still seems bizarre).
After that, the Mets have had consecutive losing seasons while the Dodgers have gone to back-to-back World Series. Why?
Well, for starters, the Dodgers build a deep team with a deep bench. They do not have top heavy rosters which crumble when there is one injury. For example, Clayton Kershaw has not thrown over 175.0 innings in a season since that NLDS, and yet, the Dodgers remain a great team.
Also, while the Mets are off purging the Murphys and Justin Turners of the world, the Dodgers are finding them. In addition to Turner, we have also seen Chris Taylor and Max Muncy figure things out in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are also not afraid to take risks or trust their young players. Gone from the 2015 team are Howie Kendrick, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Jimmy Rollins. Instead, the Dodgers have players like Cody Bellinger.
For the Mets part, well, Adrian Gonzalez was their Opening Day first baseman.
Mostly, the separation has been financial. The Dodgers ownership has been willing and motivated to keep this championship window as open as possible, and they have with the largest payroll in baseball.
Looking between the 2015 NLDS and 2018 NLCS, Turner, Joc Pederson, and Yasmani Grandal were the only players in both starting lineups. Pederson and Grandal are still under 30.
On the pitching front, Kershaw, Pedro Baez, Alex Wood, and Kenley Jansen were the only pitchers to pitch in both series.
The Dodgers are not just a financial juggernaut, but they are also a supremely well run organization. This is a complete opposite of what the Mets have been, and judging from their current GM search, will continue to be.
This is all why the Dodgers are competing for World Series while the Mets are once again also-rans.
Mets folk hero and utility player Wilmer Flores has been diagnosed with arthritis in both of his knees, and there are some indications the Mets are will non-tender him this offseason making him a free agent a year earlier than scheduled. In many ways, this seems like an odd decision.
For starters, the Mets have not shied away from giving money to injured and injury prone players. The Mets gave Yoenis Cespedes $110 million knowing he had calcified heels which would one day require surgical correction. In a similar circumstance to Flores, the Mets opted to keep Matt Harvey by giving him $5.625 million despite Harvey’s Tommy John, TOS, and stress reaction issues over the past four years.
Perhaps more analogous to the aforementioned situatiosn, the Mets gave Jay Bruce $39 million even though the team had no need for a left-hand hitting corner outfielder and Bruce having a history of knee issues. In fact, back in 2014, Bruce would have surgery to repair partially torn meniscus. As noted by UW Medicine, a torn meniscus could lead to arthritis. While we do not know if Bruce has arthritis or not, that is an assumed risk the Mets took despite having Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Brandon Nimmo on the 40 man roster.
When it comes to Bruce, what the Mets really cared about here was production and Bruce’s ability to stay on the field. It was a risk that backfired. What is interesting with Flores is he was able to stay on the field, and he was able to produce.
From June 15th until September 1st, Flores was an everyday player for the Mets. In that stretch, he hit .281/.325/.446 with 17 doubles, eight homers, and 35 RBI. Over this stretch, he had a 110 wRC+. Among players with 250 plate appearances over this stretch, that wRC+ was fourth best among MLB first basemen. It would have also ranked as fourth best among second baseman and sixth among third baseman.
Overall, Flores’ bat will play at any infield position. More than that, time and again, we have seen Flores is capable of taking over a position for an extended stretch of time while giving the Mets good production. That’s an important thing when the Mets actively signs players like Bruce who they will know will miss time.
When further analyzing the roster, you realize the Mets need Flores’ right-handed bat.
Looking at the projected 2019 roster, the Mets are going to heavily rely on left-handed bats. In addition to Bruce, Conforto, and Nimmo, the Mets also have Jeff McNeil. Outside of Todd Frazier, the Mets do not have any real right-handed power bats on the roster. It’s possible Amed Rosario could be that one day, but he’s not there yet.
Point being, when the Mets face a tough left-handed pitcher, they will need a player like Flores who they can put into the lineup. He could spell McNeil at second, or he could move over to first for Bruce. With respect to Bruce, it would help keep him fresher and hopefully more productive.
You could argue this spot could be filled by T.J. Rivera, but no one knows if he will be able to play next year. More than that, the Mets would be a stronger team with a stronger bench if they have both Flores and Rivera.
This is not to suggest Flores isn’t without his flaws. He is not a good defender at any position even if he is passable on the right side of the infield. While his knees have not forced him to the disabled list, he has been injury prone, even if they are freak injuries like him fouling a ball off his face.
Still, Flores is a player who is a perfect fit for this roster. More than that, he is a player who is a fan favorite, and he has shown himself to be clutch as well with him being the Mets all-time leader in walk-off RBI. Taking all of this into account, the Mets would be foolish to parts ways with Flores over a one-year commitment, especially when we know the Mets will not reinvest that money and sign a player anywhere near as good as Flores.
In addition to Jacob deGrom making a case for him to win the Cy Young, he has also been making an impact on the Mets record books. At the moment, he is the Mets all time leader in K/9 and ERA+. He has also moved to second place all-time in ERA, third place in FIP, and he’s cracked the top 10 in strikeouts. In essence, deGrom has moved into Jerry Koosman territory, and really, he is knocking at the door of being considered along with Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden as being in the upper echelon of Mets pitchers.
With respect to Gooden, we all know his best year was 1985. That year was not just the best year any Mets pitcher has ever had, it is among the best seasons any pitcher has ever had. That year, Gooden was the unanimous Cy Young going 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, 229 ERA+, 2.13 FIP, 268 strikeouts, 8.7 K/9, and a 12.2 WAR. After a record setting rookie season, you could see him at least threatening to challenge Seaver for the best ever in Mets history. Alas, it wasn’t to be.
Perhaps, that was the mark of just how great Seaver was. Looking at his Mets career, it is hard to pick just one season which defined his greatness. After all, he does have three Cy Youngs, which remains the most in Mets history. Looking over his Cy Young seasons, his 1971 and 1973 seasons really stand out.
In 1971, Seaver was 20-10 with a 1.76 ERA, 0.946 WHIP, 194 ERA+, 1.93 FIP, 289 strikeouts, 9.1 K/9, and a 10.2 WAR. In 1973, Seaver was 19-10 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, 175 ERA+, 2.57 FIP, 251 strikeouts, 7.8 K/9, and a 10.6 WAR.
As an aside, it is astounding to see Seaver have two seasons that great. Really, he was unparalleled in his greatness. To put it in perspective, when R.A. Dickey won the Cy Young in 2012, he had a 139 ERA+ and a 5.7 WAR. Seaver had eight seasons with at least a 139 ERA+ and eight seasons with at least a 5.7 WAR.
Looking back to Dickey’s 2012 season, he had a season good enough to beat out Clayton Kershaw to make him the third Met to win the Cy Young award. While it was good enough to beat Kershaw, the best pitcher of this generation, it is nowhere as good as the season deGrom is having right now.
So far through 30 starts, deGrom is 8-9 with a 1.78 ERA, 0.950 WHIP, 207 ERA+, 2.05 FIP, 251 strikeouts, 11.0 K/9, and an 8.6 WAR.
Now, that is a season on par with what we have seen with Seaver and Gooden. That FIP is better than what Gooden had in his all-time great 1985 season. His ERA plus is better than what Seaver had in his aforementioned Cy Young seasons. In fact, deGrom’s current ERA+ is even better than any season Seaver has posted in any season.
In essence, once you are mentally able to move past the win-loss record, deGrom is having one of the best seasons a Mets pitcher has ever had. Depending on your gauge, it can be fairly ranked anywhere in the top five of Mets single season pitching performances.
Remember, the list goes beyond just Seaver and Gooden. There were also great seasons from Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Koosman, and Matt Harvey. However you look at it, deGrom belongs near or atop the list of single season performances. More than that, deGrom is becoming one of the best pitchers in Mets history . . . if he wasn’t one already.
As reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Mets owner Fred Wilpon does not want to hire a younger and more analytics driven executive for two reasons. The first is he feels he will have a harder time connecting with that person. The second and perhaps all the more baffling is the “thought among team officials that perhaps the Mets became too analytics driven in recent seasons under Sandy Alderson’s watch . . . .”
Taking the thought at face value, we really need to question which analytics the Mets are using to inform their decisions.
For starters, look at Asdrubal Cabrera. Everyone knew he was no longer a shortstop, so that left the question over whether he should have been a second or third baseman heading into the 2018 season.
In 2017, Cabrera was a -6 DRS in 274.1 innings at second. That should have come as no surprise as he was a -10 DRS the last time he saw extensive action at second base (2014). Conversely, in his 350.1 innings at third last year, he had a 1 DRS.
Naturally, the Mets went with Cabrera at second this season where he has been an MLB worst -20 DRS. That makes him not just the worst second baseman in all of baseball, it makes him the worst defensive infielder in all of baseball.
Of course, the Mets got there by acquiescing a bit to Cabrera’s preference to play second over third. This was also the result of the team turning down a Paul Sewald for Jason Kipnis swap. That deal was nixed over money.
With respect to Sewald, he was strong when the season began. In April, he had a 1.91 ERA and a 0.805 WHIP. Since that point, Sewald has a 5.73 ERA, a 1.485 WHIP, and multiple demotions to Triple-A.
As for Kipnis, he has struggled this year hitting .226/.313/.363. It should be noted this was mostly due to a horrific April which saw him hit .178/.254/.243. Since that tough start to the season, Kipnis has gotten progressively better. Still, it is difficult to lose sleep over Kipnis even if the rejected trade put Cabrera at second and it led to the Mets signing Todd Frazier, who is hitting .217/.298/.368.
In addition to bringing Cabrera back into the fold, the Mets also brought back Jay Bruce after having traded the then impending free agent to the Cleveland Indians for Ryder Ryan.
At the time the Mets signed Bruce, they needed a center fielder. The team already had Yoenis Cespedes in left, and once he returned from the disabled list, the team was going to have Michael Conforto in right. Until the time Conforto was ready, the team appeared set with Brandon Nimmo in the short-term.
In 69 games in 2017, Nimmo hit .260/.379/.418. In those games, Nimmo showed himself to be a real candidate for the leadoff spot on a roster without an obvious one, especially in Conforto’s absence. With him making the league minimum and his having shown he could handle three outfield positions, he seemed like an obvious choice for a short term solution and possible someone who could platoon with Juan Lagares in center.
Instead, the Mets went with Bruce for $39 million thereby forcing Conforto to center where he was ill suited. More than that, Bruce was coming off an outlier year in his free agent walk year. Before that 2017 rebound season, Bruce had not had a WAR of at least 1.0 since 2013, and he had just one season over a 100 wRC+ in that same stretch. In response to that one outlier season at the age of 30, the Mets gave Bruce a three year deal.
Still, that may not have been the worst contract handed out by the Mets this past offseason. That honor goes to Jason Vargas.
The Mets gave a 35 year old pitcher a two year $16 million deal to be the team’s fifth starter despite the fact the team had real starting pitching depth. At the time of the signing, the Mets had Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Chris Flexen, and Corey Oswalt as starting pitching depth.
Instead of using five of them and stashing four of them in Triple-A, the Mets opted to go with Vargas as the fifth starter. Even better, they depleted their starting pitching depth by moving Gsellman and Lugo the to bullpen. Of course, this had the added benefit of saving them money thereby allowing them to sign Anthony Swarzak, a 32 year old reliever with just one good season under his belt.
The Mets were rewarded with the decision to sign Vargas by his going 2-8 with an 8.75 ERA and a 1.838 WHIP. He’s also spent three separate stints on the disabled list.
What’s funny about Vargasis he was signed over the objections of the Mets analytics department. From reports, Vargas was not the only one. Looking at that, you have to question just how anyone associated with the Mets could claim they have become too analytics driven. Really, when you ignore the advice of those hired to provide analytical advice and support, how could you point to them as the problem?
They’re not.
In the end, the problem is the same as it always has been. It’s the Wilpons.
They’re the ones looking for playing time for Jose Reyes at a time when everyone in baseball thinks his career is over. They’re the ones not reinvesting the proceeds from David Wright‘s insurance policy into the team. They’re the ones who have a payroll not commensurate with market size or World Series window. They’re the ones rejecting qualified people for a job because of an 81 year year old’s inability to connect with his employees.
Really, you’re not going to find an analytical basis to defend making a team older, less versatile, more injury prone, and worse defensively.
What you will find is meddlesome ownership who thinks they know better than everyone. That’s why they’re 17 games under .500 with declining attendance and ratings while saying the Yankees financial model is unsustainable at a time the Yankees are heading to the postseason again and the team has the highest valuation of any Major League team.
Last week, my brother challenged me to find something nice to say about the Wilpons. Given the tall task this was, I figured the best way to handle this was to turn the question over to the fine people who participate in the Mets Blogger Roundtables:
Mark Healey (Gotham Baseball)
Here’s the deal; unlike a lot of people, I’ve spent some time with Jeff Wilpon. (That’s me interviewing Jeff during a tour of Citi Field) I know he loves baseball. I know he wants to win. I think he gave Sandy some decent money to spend this offseason and it was invested poorly. Jeff, IMO, needs to be less passive aggressive and more out in front of everything that happens. The Wilpons and Katzes are not going anywhere, so we need to put away our pitchforks and find some constructive ways to remind ownership of how much we want this team to succeed.
Editor’s Note: On Gotham Baseball, Mark had a more detailed analysis about how fair the coverage of the Wilpons has been.
Joe Maracic (Loud Egg)
Metstradamus (Metstradamus Blog)
I’m not falling for this. The minute I make some joke like “well, I’m sure Jeff Wilpon has never kicked a puppy”, Bob Woodward is going to link Jeffy to a puppy mill in Greenwich for the Washington Post. I’m out. You make your jokes. Hope they age well.
Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)
Shannon Forde cited Jeff Wilpon as being very supportive of her when she was battling the cancer that eventually took her life. That’s what I think of when I try to remember there’s a human being behind the caricature.
Tim Ryder (MMO, FOB)
it’s tough to find anything overwhelmingly pleasant to say about the Wilpons. They’ve been doing an excellent job of trolling an entire fanbase for 16 years. Does that count?
Breanna Susa (That Mets Chick)
The Wilpons are really good at saving money. I bet they have a ton of money saved for their retirement. Their financial advisor must be so proud of them with their savings. Actually they are probably their own financial planners since they wouldnt want to give up that 1% of compensation the planners would recieve. Genuis if you ask me. I guess thats why Jeff graduated from Harvard. Dude knows how to save, its almost as if he’s seen a financial crisis like the one in 2008 when the stock market collapsed. Genuis I tell you.
Mets Daddy
The Wilpons are trying to save baseball by pointing out just how unsustainable its economic model. Teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers are spending at unsustainable rates, and it is going to send them into financial ruin. Once those teams go down, who knows about the future of baseball?
Fortunately, we have people like the Wilpons who are there to advise all of baseball how to avoid financial ruin and to build a profitable baseball organization which is predicated upon building just one team per decade capable of going to the World Series.
On a more serious note, it was good to see the Mets have a tribute video to Matt Harvey and to welcome back Ed Kranepool and put the word out about his need for a new kidney. Fans have been justifiably angry with the Wilpons, but they did deserve credit for doing the right thing in those instances.
Ed Kranepool needs a kidney: [email protected] or call 631-444-6944. https://t.co/6MMPi1JuTk
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) August 7, 2018
Here’s hoping you take the time out to help out of a Mets great while you’re taking the time to read some of the excellent work from this group of Mets bloggers.
With the Mets continue to struggle, Homer Bailey, who entered the game with a 7.22 ERA against the Mets, was a sight for sore eyes.
The Mets quickly went to work against Bailey with three first inning runs highlighted by birthday boy Wilmer Flores opening the scoring with an RBI single.
Overall, it was a really good birthday for Wilmer. He would go 3-for-4 with a run, two RBI, and a HBP. As noted during the telecast, Flores was one of 14 players with three singles and a HBP on his birthday. Two of the other players were Lou Gehrig and Shoeless Joe.
That 3-0 first inning Mets lead grew to 6-0 in the strength of another Flores RBI single, and homers by Kevin Plawecki and Jeff McNeil.
That McNeil homer was absolutely crushed going way up the Pepsi Porch:
This ball was just seen bouncing across the Grand Central Parkway. #Crushed pic.twitter.com/7v5CEdHskt
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 7, 2018
(Yes, it’s the Coke Corner now, but the Pepsi Porch sounds better).
That 6-0 lead was looking very safe with Noah Syndergaard dominating the Reds. That was until the seventh.
With one out, Syndergaard plunked consecutive batters. The Preston Tucker one really must’ve been bad as he was checked on by the trainers multiple times, and he could score from second on a Billy Hamilton single, and that’s even with Brandon Nimmo overrunning the ball in right.
Tucker would score on a Jose Peraza single which chase Syndergaard.
In a pleasant surprise, Mickey Callaway initially went to Bobby Wahl in the bases loaded one out situation. Given the Mets record, this is exactly what the team needs to be doing.
Wahl started by throwing three straight balls to Joey Votto. To his credit, Wahl battled back into the count getting two quick strikes. After Votto fouled off two, Wahl walked in a run making it 6-2 Mets.
Wahl rebounded by striking out Scooter Gennett on a 3-2 pitch.
After a tough couple of at-bats, and with Plawecki saving Wahl’s bacon a few times by blocking balls in the dirt, Callaway went to Robert Gsellman.
Gsellman would allow a two RBI single to Eugenio Suarez before getting out of that inning and pitching a perfect eighth.
In a surprise, Jerry Blevins pitched the ninth, and he recorded his first save of the season. In what has simply been a goofy year, Blevins has a start and a save this year.
Overall, the Mets won 6-4 in a game where we saw some good things from youngish players who could be pieces next year. That’s a pretty good day for the 2018 Mets.
Game Notes: Mets had a tribute video for Matt Harvey before the game. Luis Guillorme had an infield single in the eighth. With that hit, Guillorme extended his MLB best 50 at-bats without a strikeout.
When looking at Sandy Alderson’s tenure as the Mets General Manager, you would have to say one of the best moves he made was signing Asdrubal Cabrera in the offseason immediately after the Mets pennant.
When you look at Cabrera’s Mets career, the one thing that immediately comes to mind is how he almost single-handedly carried the Mets to the 2016 postseason.
At that time, the Mets were down Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom in the rotation. The team had no third baseman for most of the season. Lucas Duda was essentially done for the year, and James Loney was doing a bad job offensively and defensively at first. Neil Walker would go down with a season ending back surgery. The prior year’s hero, Yoenis Cespedes, was in and out of the lineup with quad issues, and when he did play, he wasn’t the same guy he was in 2015.
After what was a largely disappointing injury plagued year, Cabrera came off the DL on August 19th, and he went on an absolute tear. From that point until the end of the season, he hit .345/.406/.635 with 11 doubles, a triple, 10 homers, and 29 RBI.
To put it in perspective just how great a run that was, Cabrera had the seventh best wRC+ over that stretch. His 179 wRC+ was better than players like Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, NL MVP Kris Bryant.
In that insane stretch, the Mets went from two games under .500 to finishing the year 87-75 with the top National League Wild Card. Not only did Cabrera fuel that run, but he might have also given us one of the greatest bat flips in Mets history:
From there, things haven’t been so great with the Mets. Unfortunately, it did lead to Cabrera demanding a trade when the team wanted to move him off of shortstop. With the Mets unable to move him, the team did pick up his option, and he returned.
It is a good thing he returned because Cabrera has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season. His 122 wRC+ is sixth best among Major League second basemen, and it is second best among players on the Mets Opening Day roster.
Whatever issues Cabrera may have caused with his demands, he is a guy who came to play each and every day. No matter what the injury or issue, he wanted in the lineup. More often that not, he contributed.
Part of the reason why is Cabrera is that rare breed of player who actually raises his game in New York. His 116 OPS+ with the Mets is better than any of his previous stops. He averaged a higher WAR with the Mets than at any other stop. It’s impressive he did this as a player towards the end of his prime as opposed to one entering his prime.
Overall, the New York Mets organization has been better for Cabrera having been a part of it. He was a player born to play in New York, and he had the opportunity to show it with a great pennant run in 2016. For that run alone, Mets fans should be thankful.
In the end, we should all wish Cabrera good luck in Philadelphia, and yes, given his play here, there Mets should consider bringing him back next year.
As a second straight Mets season has completely fallen apart, there has been discussions about whether the Mets should blow the whole thing up. Those discussions have been ramped up with Yoenis Cespedes being out for at least 10 months with his having double heel surgery.
What’s odd about that is the Mets arguably have the best starting rotation in baseball with the top 1-2 combination with Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
Brandon Nimmo has played like an All Star caliber player, and lately Michael Conforto has returned to his All Star form.
The Mets have two potent weapons with Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo.
There’s also good talent close to the majors with Peter Alonso, Justin Dunn, and Andres Gimenez. Of course, Jeff McNeil was just called-up.
There’s talent present which could make the Mets winners in 2020 or even 2019. However, for that to happen, the Mets will need to add some pieces.
Fortunately for the Mets, this could go down as one of the most consequential free agent classes in Major League history. Teams will be lining up to throw money to Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Craig Kimbrel, Clayton Kershaw, and A.J. Pollock.
Given all that has happened, the Mets will have the money to be competitors on the free agent market. In fact, they are going to be quite flush with cash.
Expiring Contracts
Even if the Mets do not trade anyone who is due money past this season, the Mets will have money freed up because there are a number of contracts expiring after this season:
- AJ Ramos – $9.225 million
- Asdrubal Cabrera – $8.25 million
- Jerry Blevins – $7 million
- Devin Mesoraco* – $5.625 million
- Jose Reyes – $2 million
With respect to Mesoraco, there was an undisclosed amount of cash provided by the Reds when they obtained Harvey in exchange for Mesoraco. While Mesoraco is due $13.12 million this year, it was Harvey’s $5.625 million salary that was part of the Opening Day roster. Therefore, for the sake of calcualting how much money will be available, Harvey’s salary is used as the placeholder.
With the Harvey/Mesoraco caveat, the Mets will have $32.1 million coming off the books just from contracts currently on the books expiring after the season.
Subtotal $32.1 million
Familia Trade
With the Mets trading Jeurys Familia, the team not only was able to acquire two prospects in Bobby Wahl and William Toffey, both of whom will be earning de minimis minor league salaries, but the team was also able to remove Familia’s $7.925 million from the books with the team getting some cash savings this season with the Athletics taking on the remainder of Familia’s 2018 salary.
Subtotal $40.025
Insurance Money
David Wright has not played a Major League game since May 27, 2016. With each passing day and each additional set-back, it becomes increasingly unlikely we will ever see Wright play in another game for the Mets. Now when it comes to Wright, there are two factors at play which would give the team an avenue to spend more money this offseason.
First and foremost, Wright’s salary goes from $20 million in 2018 to $15 million in 2019. Right off the bat, that gives the Mets an additional $5 million to spend this offseason.
Additionally, Wright’s contract is fully insured with insurance paying 75% of Wright’s salary. As a result, the Mets will have an additional $11.25 million available to spend due to Wright’s inability to play.
But Wright is not the only injured player insured. In addition to Wright, Yoenis Cespedes‘ contract is also insured. That’s important in light of the announcement Cespedes will have double heel surgery and will be out at least 10 months. For what it’s worth, the Mets suggested he may be out longer than that.
Remember, Cespedes is out from 10 months from whenever he has the surgery. Not from the date of the press conference. With that in mind and for the sake of being conservative in the estimates, lets assume Cespedes is out for half the season.
With the Mets saying there is insurance that picks up over 50% of the salary owed to Cespedes, that means, the Mets will be able to recoup roughly 50% of a half’s seasons salary. With Cespedes due $29 million next year, insurance will pay at least $7.25 million. With each passing day that number will grow.
When combining the monies covered by insurance for Wright and Cespedes, the team will have an additional $18.5 million available to spend. When you include the $5 million drop in Wright’s salary, that number is $23.5 million.
Subtotal $63.525
Other Factors
As noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, ownership says it considers Wright’s contract part of the payroll, and the team does not reinvest the money saved into baseball operations. Putting aside what that means in terms of money available for a second, what this does mean is the team has saved and socked away $15 million of the $20 million due and owing to Wright this season.
The same likely applies to whatever the team can and will recover from insurance from Cespedes’ $29 million contract this season.
Additionally, the team saw savings of roughly $3 million for trading Familia, and they will likely see the same savings when other players are traded for the roster. Presumably, since that money is not being invested into baseball operations this season that would make that money available for 2019 and beyond.
For a moment, we can presume for a moment the $3 million saved on Familia can offset the $3 million pay increase due to Jay Bruce next season. Of course, the pay raises due in arbitration and the like will very easily be offset by the money saved on the Wright and Cespedes insurance policies. Really, there should be money to spare.
What This All Means
Looking at the Mets as currently constituted, they have tw0-third of their outfield set with Conforto and Nimmo. On the infield, they have Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario. They will also have Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, and Jeff McNeil, who could become part of a time sharing at either first or second. If he can get healthy, the team could have Bruce at first or right depending on the development of Alonso, or yes, even Dominic Smith.
All told, this means the Mets have the payroll room and the spots on the roster to add at least one player of significance. Perhaps even two.
With that in mind, with the Mets having $63.525 million to spend this offseason, there is no excuse why this team shouldn’t aggressively pursue Machado and Harper. They should come away with one of them plus an additional piece to help take them over the top like a Kimbrel, Pollock, or yes, even a Daniel Murphy (first base only).
If the Mets do that, this is a potential World Series contender, especially with this starting pitching. If the team goes out and does this, the fans will pack Citi Field to the gills.
The time for excuses is over. It’s time to act like a big market club with a chance to win a World Series.
Last year, the Mets traded Addison Reed, statistically the best reliever on the market for a trio of right-handed relief prospects in Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan, and Stephen Nogosek.
Bautista has a 12.46 ERA in five Major League appearances, and he has a 5.08 ERA in the minors.
Callahan had a 9.72 ERA in seven appearances for Las Vegas before going down with season ending shoulder surgery.
Nogosek has a 5.49 ERA with a 6.8 BB/9.
It is just one year, but the pieces received in exchange for Reed last year are actually worse than you could have imagined. What makes that all the worse is the return for Reed was deemed underwhelming at the time of the trade.
This is important to note because as noted by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the New York Mets had the audacity to liken the return they received from the Oakland Athletics for Jeurys Familia to what they received from the Boston Red Sox for Reed.
With that, you don’t need to go searching out for an analysis from a scouting outlet, reporter, or talking head. The Mets themselves are telling you they got a terrible return for not just their biggest trade piece, but also for the top reliever remaining on the trade market.
But don’t take it from the Mets, take it from Keith Law’s scathing review in his ESPN Insider piece on the topic:
If the New York Mets are just going to trade their most valuable major league trade assets for salary relief, rather than try to improve the club, then it’s time for MLB to step in and force the Wilpons to sell the team, just as the league did with Frank McCourt and the Dodgers. Trading Jeurys Familia for two fringe-at-best prospects is not how any team, regardless of payroll level, should operate in this environment. For a franchise that operates in the largest market in the league to do this — and do so ten days before the trade deadline rather than waiting for someone to offer a legitimate return — is embarrassing for the Mets and Major League Baseball as a whole.
What makes this all the more maddening is the Mets have recently been quite public about how they are now in “excellent financial health” and that this time, they would be willing to eat salary to improve their return in a trade.
The very first chance they go to do it, they proved they were lying. Sure, they can go and spin it any way they want, but plain and simple, the Mets were lying.
Remember, reports on Friday were the Mets were on the verge of completing a trade with the Athletics, and then there was a stall. As reported by Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, the money, not the return, was the issue. In fact, the reports were the holdup was there was another team more willing to take on more of Familia’s salary.
NOT another team jumping in with a better prospect haul. No, another team willing to pay more of Familia’s salary. The end result was the small market Athletics taking on all of Familia’s salary.
You have to look long and hard for a person who like the trade it prompted former General Manager and writer for The Athletic, Jim Bowden to write, “The return they got from Oakland was so light, I had to make calls and texts around both leagues to see if I was missing anything. I couldn’t get a single unbiased team to support the return the Mets got.”
That return was Bobby Wahl, William Toffey, and $1 million in international bonus pool money.
Wahl is yet another one of the Mets newfound hard throwing right-handed relief prospects. He’s putting up really good numbers in Triple-A (albeit with scary peripherals), and like Matt Harvey, he’s a pitcher with TOS.
Toffey, well, he’s been described anywhere from a fringe prospect to a future bench player. Oh, and as Law noted, “I know [Toffey’s] father and J.P. Riccardi, one part of the Mets’ interm GM structure, are friends, but I don’t know if that was a factor in the deal.”
Naturally, John Ricco would come out and say it was Riccardi who ran point on the deal with the Athletics. Of course, this happened a day later because apparently one of the three GMs the Mets have had a previously scheduled engagement.
Think about that for a second. The trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and one of your GMs, the guy who is front and center with the media, has a previously scheduled engagement. Seriously?
So, basically, if you take the Mets at face value, he wasn’t around when the deal went down. But that’s fine because it was Riccardi who “ran point” on the trade because of his relationship with the Athletics.
Taking the Mets at face value, Riccardi made this deal, and yet, the former GM could not speak with the media because they needed the guy who has never been a GM and who has ducked the media in the past to be the point man with the media to speak on a deal he had no part (or very little part) in making.
And just when you didn’t think it could get any better, the Mets are hyping the international bonus pool money and what Omar Minaya can do with it. Being fair, seeing how he signed Familia for $100,000, that’s a reason to like the deal.
So, in the end, we have the Mets coaxing the Athletics to eat more of Familia’s salary rather than get a better return, one of the GMs obtaining his friend’s son in a lackluster return, one of the selling points being how one of the GMs could use the international bonus money, and the one guy who has nothing to do with the deal or how it will be utilized being the guy who answers questions about the trade and the return. Furthermore, the same front office is comparing the deal to a trade which has so far blown up in their faces.
Under normal circumstances, you would say this is display of complete and utter incompetence, and no organization would want to be embarrassed publicly in this fashion.
However, this is the Mets team run by the Wilpons. As a result, this is just business as usual for what has become a complete and utter mess of an organization.
Ultimately, if you want a succinct analysis of the Mets trading Familia, it’s shame on the Mets and the Wilpons for continuing to operate their team in this fashion.