Luis Severino
The New York Mets gambled last season offering Luis Severino a one year $13 million contract. The deal could not have gone better for either side.
Severino made 31 starts for the Mets pitching 182 innings. He had a 101 ERA+ and a 4.21 FIP. He wasn’t the All-Star caliber pitcher he was with the New York Yankees before all the injuries, but he proved he could be durable enough to last a full season.
Severino stopped tipping his pitches. He occasionally flashed brilliance. His first two starts of the postseason were very good. The work with Driveline and Jeremy Hefner paid off, and Severino was entering free agency poised to truly cash in.
The Mets opted to gamble again and extended Severino a qualifying offer, which is $21.05 million. If he accepts, that’s a nice pay raise for Severino albeit with some risk.
Last offseason, with his injuries and top pitching, Severino needed a one year deal to rebuild his value. In 2024, he accomplished that and appeared in line for a multi-year deal.
That was at least until he was given a qualifying offer. With that, there are going to be teams who will not pursue Severino. Severino was good in 2024 but probably not good enough to justify losing a draft pick and/or international bonus pool money.
For Severino, that puts him in a bad spot. At 31, does he want to try to find a multi year deal in an already limited market? Would such a deal be worth passing on $21.05 million? Certainly, his AAV would look more like his 2024 salary than the QO.
For the Mets, they need starters, and Severino as a mid rotation guy would be perfect. This buys time for Christian Scott to return from Tommy John. It also buys time for prospects like Blade Tidwell and Brandon Sproat.
Mostly, it gets a key part of their rotation locked in as the Mets look to take the next step in 2025. Doing that while not over leveraging into the future is the best case scenario.
That’s Severino accepting the QO. It’s the best case scenario. It strengthens the 2025 rotation while mitigating the risk he doesn’t have any durability after pitching 100 more innings in a year.
Severino returning on a QO is a best case scenario. It would be a great start to the offseason. It’s the first step towards the Mets winning the 2025 World Series.
For a brief moment when Jeff McNeil singled home Tyron Taylor, you let yourself dream one last time. Francisco Álvarez was suddenly hitting great, and then it’s Francisco Lindor. Mark Vientos would represent the tying run . . . .
Look, if there was any team that could do it, it was this New York Mets team. If anything, a six run rally with two outs would perfectly encapsulate what this team had been.
Sadly, Álvarez grounded out to end the series.
They’ll tell us the Los Angeles Dodgers were just the better team. The Mets were lucky to get this far. Us Mets fans know better.
There was so much fun with this team with Grimace and OMG. Jose Iglesias was this year’s José Valentíne. Sean Manae became an ace. Carlos Mendoza looks like he may well soon be the best manager in baseball.
Lindor was an MVP in every sense of the word. Vientos finally got his chance and would show the world he’s a star in the making. Pete Alonso reminded us why we loved him so.
This is a Mets team we will remember and cherish forever.
The reasons to adore this team are far too many to count, but in the end, this team was quintessentially a Mets team. In some ways, this run was reminiscent of the 1999 run that just fell short. Fortunately, with Steve Cohen and David Stearns, we know this is just the beginning of what can be a long, dominant stretch.
As for now, time just caught up with this team.
Brandon Nimmo was just too injured. There were just too many innings on the arms of Manae and Luis Severino. There wasn’t enough time for Kodai Senga to get where he needed to be. José Buttó and Phil Maton couldn’t carry that regular season success into the postseason.
In the moment, you’re wringing your hands saying if only the Mets got just one hit (other than Vientos’ grand slam) with the bases loaded it would be a completely different series. There are moves like J.D. Martinez in Games 3 and 4 where you’re left wondering what if . . . .
Sitting there on my couch with an upset 10 year old, all you can say is this one hurt. It’s hurts that they lost. It hurts because we all completely fell in love with this team and reminded you why you love the New York Mets with every fiber of your being.
This was the first real postseason run for my kids. For me, I was way too young in 1986, and 1988 was fleeting. But to this day, I’ll forever cherish the 1999 team.
I can tell you everything about that team, and I’ll fight anyone who doesn’t say that wasn’t the greatest defensive infield of all time.
For my sons, Lindor is their Mike Piazza. Vientos is their Edgardo Alfonzo. Manea and Severino are their Al Leiter and Rick Reed. Fortunately, no one will be their Armando Benitez.
Ultimately, this is the team you point back to and say this is why I love baseball. I love the Mets.
When they’re raising their sons to be Mets fans, they will talk about Lindor against the Braves, Alonso against the Brewers, Vientos’ NLDS, and all this season entailed.
For now, it’s pain. In the days, weeks, and months ahead, it’ll be fondly remembered.
For my dad, I don’t know how many more of these we have left. The 1999 and 2000 runs we special. It’s only cruel we had Adam Wainwright doing color in the this year’s NLDS. We left Game 3 of the 2015 World Series thinking they were going to win. We were holding onto hope after Game 5.
There’s always a certain magic when the Mets make these runs. Maybe it’s because it’s just their 11th postseason appearance, but in reality it’s more.
Because it’s always so special and magical, it hurts more. I wanted this for Lindor and what we have the fans, for Alonso in what may be his last year with the Mets, and Nimmo for staying.
Mostly, I wanted it for my family. I don’t want to be the 1994 New York Rangers fan or 2004 Boston Red Sox fan visiting a grave telling dad we finally did it. I want to be there with my boys, dad, and brother having that one moment.
Just one.
Maybe this is the springboard for 2025. Maybe that will be the year the Mets won. For now, it’s just appreciating what was while thinking about what could have been.
So, to that, thank you to the 2024 Mets for this magical season. Your team will be forever loved by Mets fans and will always have a special place in my heart.
David Stearns made his first real foray into free agency signing RHP Luis Severino and INF Joey Wendle. These were curious moves to say the least.
Severino, 29, was dreadful last season, and he really hasn’t returned to his All-Star form after his 2020 Tommy John surgery. That said, there was hope in 2022.
In 2022, he was 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, and a 9.9 K/9. Over his 19 starts, he had a 124 ERA+ and a 3.70 FIP.
Last year was a disaster. He had a 65 ERA+ and a 6.14 FIP. The caveat is he dealt with injuries which likely impacted his performance.
On that, Severino dealt with a lat strain in 2022 and an oblique in 2023. As we saw with Max Scherzer, the Mets struggled to deal with these types of pitcher injuries the past few years.
All that said, one year $13 million is a worthwhile gamble. That goes double with Jeremy Hefner as pitching coach and Stearns ability to build a pitching staff.
With Severino slotted for the back of the rotation, this makes sense. It makes more sense with the Mets needing to completely build a rotation.
Where things go awry is Wendle.
Wendle is coming off a year where he had a 47 wRC+ and a -3 OAA. He turns 34 in April, and unsurprisingly, he’s past his prime and in decline.
His wRC+ declined four straight years. The OAA dropped three straight years. He had seen his sprint speed drop three straight years before marginally rebounding last year.
Maybe he rebounds defensively, but he’s also going to be 34. He’s also literally slowing down If you’re betting on a defensive bounce back from a player, Luis Guillorme was a better bet.
However, the Mets non-tendered Guillorme. They then gave Wendle $2 million. It’s not a lot of money, but it’s a roster spot guaranteed to a player who should’ve been a minor league signing.
The hope is Wendle NEVER plays. The same would’ve been true if Guillorme stayed.
Ideally, Ronny Mauricio is the everyday second or third baseman. Jeff McNeil returns well from Tommy John. Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, or Mauricio are the answer at third.
Of course, it’s plausible all of the above fails. Also, let’s never speak of Francisco Lindor getting injured. Taking all that into account, Wendle is not the answer. He can never be the answer.
Whatever the case, it’s still early with plenty of difference making players available. We should wait to see the entire picture come to focus before fully judging even with this being an unspectacular and curious start.