Lucas Duda
There are a multitude of reasons why the Mets are only a game over .500 and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card.
The most popular excuse is injuries. There is some validity there with Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda, and David Wright gone for the year. Yoenis Cespedes was hobbled by a quad injury before he was finally forced to go on the disabled list. Now that he’s back, he has a heel issue. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs. Matz is also dealing with a shoulder issue that landed him on the disabled list. For what it’s worth, Jon Niese is also on the disabled list as he needs arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.
That’s a litany of injuries, and that’s not all of them. However, that’s not the Mets biggest problem. The Mets biggest problem is they’re not beating the Mets they are supposed to beat.
Over the past two weeks, the Mets went 1-5 against the woeful Diamondbacks. TheDiamondbacks can’t best anyone as represented by their 53-75 record, which is a 93 loss pace.
The Padres are on the same 93 loss pace with a 53-74 record. On the season, the Mets could only muster a 4-3 record against them.
The Mets are 7-6 against the Braves this year. The Braves are well on their way to a 100 loss season with a 46-82 record.
The Mets are 5-4 against the Phillies. The Phillies are near a 90 less pace with a 59-68 record. With the Phillies rolling into town, the Mets can turn that 5-4 mark to an 8-4 mark.
Fact is the Mets need to do that if they have designs on getting back to the postseason. Keep in mind, beating teams like the Phillies and Braves powered the Mets run to a division title.
In 2015, the Mets were 90-72, which is 18 games over .500. Against the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins, three teams that lost over 90 games, the Mets were a combined 36-21. Against just those three terrible teams, the Mets went 15 games over .500. It goes a long way in explaining why the Mets were 18 games over .500 and won the division.
Currently, the Mets are 64-63. Against the aforementioned second division clubs, the Mets are 17-18, one game over .500. If the Mets played those 35 games at a similar clip than they did against the intradivision 90+ loss teams in 2015, the Mets would’ve gone 22-13. That would mean that the Mets would be a more respectable 69-58. That would’ve put them in a tie with the Giants for the first Wild Card and five games back in the division.
Now, if the Mets beat the aforementioned second division clubs at the same rate other teams beat them, their record against those teams would be be 21-14. This means the Mets record would be 68-59 giving them a half game lead for the second Wild Card and putting them a game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card.
Overall, people can point to injuries all they want, but the simple fact is even with those injuries, the Mets were still better than the Phillies, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres. They just didn’t play like it.
The Mets have a chance to reverse course. Of their remaining 35 games, 22 of them are against teams under .500. If the Mets truly want to win the Wild Card, they’ll need to destroy those opponents like they did in 2015. That begins tonight when the Mets begin their three game set against the Phillies.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
One of the long forgotten storylines of the early part of the season was the Mets couldn’t hit left-handed pitching. For their careers, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda have mostly struggled against them. That effectively neutralizes two of the best bats in the lineup. Terry Collins ices a third when he refuses to play Michael Conforto against lefties.
With the Mets injuries and Sandy Alderson remaking the roster on the fly, the Mets now destroy left-handed pitching.
It starts with new (and old) leadoff hitter Jose Reyes. In his career, Reyes has always been a slightly better right-hand hitter than he was a left-hand hitter, but this year the splits are even more pronounced. In 25 games against righties, he is hitting .254/.289/.408. However, in the 17 games against lefties, he is destroying them hitting .342/.419/.605. Each and every game, he sets the pace.
Usually playing across the diamond from Reyes is Wilmer Flores who suddenly turns into Babe Ruth when a lefty is on the mound. Flores has played 44 games against lefties, and he is hitting an astounding .344/.392/.678 with three doubles, nine homers, and 22 RBI. Flores OPS+ against lefties is 176. To put how good that is in perspective, that 176 is better than Paul Goldschmidt‘s and Jose Altuve‘s. Goldschmidt and Altuve currently led their respective leagues in those categories.
Rounding out the infield is Neil Walker who has been a completely different hitter against lefties this season. Walker entered the year hitting .260/.317/.338 against lefties. This year, he is hitting .327/.383/.612 against them. He has more than doubled his homers against lefties this year.
In the outfield, with Juan Lagares going down with injury, the Mets eventually replaced him with Justin Ruggiano. He has been the Mets center fielder when a left-handed pitcher starts a game. In his seven games against lefties, Ruggiano has hit .400/.471/.867, and he had a monster home run against Jaime Garcia:
It’s not a fluke for him either. In his eight year career, Ruggiano is hitting .276/.340/.530 against lefties.
When you add these bats to a lineup that already has Yoenis Cespedes, you have a team that mashes lefties. You have a team that knocks Madison Bumgarner out after five innings. You have an offense that can do anything no matter who is on the mound. You have an offense you believe can go the postseason as the second Wild Card.
On August 22, 1973, the Mets won their second game in a row to raise the Mets record to 57-67 leaving them 6.0 games out in the National League East behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals.
From that point forward, the Mets would be the hottest team in baseball going 25-12 carrying them to an unlikely division championship. The Mets rode the hot streak to beat the Big Red Machine 3-2 in a best of five NLCS, and they came within a win of disrupting the Oakland A’s dynasty.
The popular story was the Mets were spurred by Tug McGraw screaming “Ya Gotta Believe!” after a M.Donald Grant “pep talk” in July. However, the truth is that team just got healthy at the right time, and when the team was at 100%, they were among the best teams in baseball.
During that year, the team was hampered by injuries. Jerry Grote, John Milner, Bud Harrelson, and Cleon Jones all missed significant time. Rusty Staub player through injuries all year. On top of that phenom Jon Matlack was having a down year a year removed from winning the Rookie of the Year Award. He was joined by Jerry Koosman in having a surprising down year. Willie Mays looked to be every bit of his 42 years of age. Young fill-ins like Don Hahn just were not producing. The Mets were forced to do anything they could do to improve the team like releasing dead weight like Jim Fregosi. About all that went right that season for the Mets was Tom Seaver; that and the fact that no one ran away with the division allowing the Mets to enter the postseason with an 82-79 record.
Isn’t that what this Mets season has been. With Matt Harvey, David Wright, Lucas Duda, Adrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, we have seen this Mets team be hampered time and again by injuries. We have seen countless Mets play through injuries like Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz with their bone spurs. We’ve seen replacements like Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds not play up to snuff. Players like Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto had surprising down years. About the only thing that has gone right for the Mets this year is the fact that Jacob deGrom has continued to pitch like an ace, and the fact that no one has ran away with the second Wild Card spot.
Maybe, just maybe, this is 1973 all over again. That 1973 team was much further back in both the standings and more teams to leapfrog in the standings. All they needed to do was to get healthy and to get hot. Right now, with Cespedes back and hitting home runs for the Mets again, this team is healthy, and they are on the verge of getting hot. If that happens, the Mets can very well take that second Wild Card spot and get into the postseason.
As we saw in 1973 as well as last year, with great Mets pitching, the Mets can beat anyone in the postseason. They can shock the world. Anything is possible so long as they get hot and get into the postseason.
Overall, if you want to excuse the Mets performance due to injuries, there’s merit to the argument. However, don’t let that excuse away Terry Collins’ and Sandy Alderson’s performance. They chose to go with players have established they can’t do it instead of giving other players a legitimate opportunity.
On the Fourth of July, Matt Harvey made his last start of the season. Despite Harvey’s understandably poor performance, he left behind a gaping hole in the rotation the Mets didn’t fill.
First, the Mets went with Logan Verrett. In seven starts, Verrett went 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA and a 1.541 WHIP while only averaging five innings per start. He then lost his job to “fan favorite” Jon Niese who had been demoted to the bullpen by the Pirates before being traded to the Mets. In his lone start, Niese pitched 4.2 innings allowing four hits, four earned, and two walks with six strikeouts.
Combined, Verrett and Niese were 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP. Last night, Seth Lugo walked off the mound after 6.2 terrific innings having only allowed seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts. He’d leave being two base runners that Jerry Blevins would allow to score.
When David Wright and Lucas Duda went down with season ending injuries, the Mets first turned to Eric Campbell who hit .159/.270/.222 with one double, one homer, and five RBI.
Next up was Matt Reynolds, who not only helped fill-in for Wright, but also provide some days off for Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. Reynolds hit .211/.231/.382 with seven doubles, two homers, and 11 RBI.
Next up was Ty Kelly. As an infielder, Kelly is hitting .227/.292/.364 with one homer and three RBI.
Combined, Campbell, Reynolds, and Kelly have hit .191/.264/.315 with eight doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI. These are the options the Mets went with while making excuses why T.J. Rivera shouldn’t be called-up to the majors. When Rivera finally fot his shot, he hit .355/.344/.419 with two doubles and three RBI in nine games.
So yes, injuries have impacted the Mets. However, who they chose to replace those injured players had a similar negative impact. The Mets would’ve been much better with a healthy Harvey, Wright, and Duda. It’s possible they would’ve been over .500 and in the Wild Card race if they had given Lugo and Rivera a shot earlier.
With Travis d’Arnaud missing time with a shoulder injury and struggling at the plate all season, the Mets were all but forced to inquire about Jonathan Lucroy.
The Mets interest in Lucroy was understandable as the team needed another bat in the lineup with Lucas Duda and David Wright being gone for the season, Yoenis Cespedes being hobbled with a quad injury, and Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and yes, d’Arnaud having down seasons. The Mets needed another bat, and Lucroy seemed to be the answer with him hitting .299/.359/.482 with 17 doubles, three triples, 13 homers, and 50 RBI. That was the type of production the Mets were hoping to add at the trade deadline.
For whatever reason, the Mets were not able to swing a trade for Lucroy at the trade deadline. However, they were able to get Lucroy’s production.
Since the trade deadline passed, d’Arnaud is hitting .311/.354/.444 with two homers and three RBI. It is exactly what the Mets were hoping to get from him after a season in which d’Arnaud hit .268/.340/.485 with 14 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 41 RBI in 67 games last year. It seems that d’Arnaud has turned his season around.
It could be that his shoulder is feeling better. It could be a mechanical adjustment he has made at the plate. It could also be that he is able to just relax and go out there and hit now that the trade deadline has passed. Whatever the case may be, the important thing from the Mets perspective is they seem to have d’Arnaud back.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online
For the second straight year, it appears that the Mets have been snakebitten. They have lost Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, and David Wright to season ending injuries. It would be easy to blame injuries like these as well as the other injuries the Mets have had for the team underachieving this season. There’s just one problem with that – the Mets have been amongst the healthiest teams in all of baseball.
According to Spotrac, the Mets rank 15th in the majors and 8th in the National League with the team having placed 13 players on the disabled list. With those 13 players on the disabled list, the Mets have missed 549 player days, which ranks 23rd in the majors and 12th in the National League.
Now, there are some fair criticisms in pointing just to the disabled list figures. First, as we have seen with the Mets handling of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets wait too long before putting a player on the disabled list. Second, this list does not account for players like Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard who are pitching despite having bone spurs in their elbows which will have to be surgically removed in the offseason. However, this point-of-view is a bit myopic when considering the injuries the Mets main competition for the two Wild Card spots have endured.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The 63-49 Dodgers currently have the top Wild Card spot by four games. They have also put a major league leading 25 players on the disabled list while losing a major league leading 1,400 player days.
Brett Anderson was gone for the season before he threw a pitch, Hyun-Jin Ryu only made one start, and Alex Wood lasted just 10 starts. That’s 3/5 of the Dodgers Opening Day rotation up in smoke. On top of that, the Dodgers have lost important bullpen pieces in Yimi Garcia and Chin-hui Tsao.
The Dodgers have also been decimated in the outfield. Valuable fourth outfielder and bench bat Andre Ethier was also gone before the season started. He was needed more than usual considering the Dodgers finally released Carl Crawford, had to deal with Yasiel Puig not producing, and recently losing the pleasantly surprising Trayce Thompson in the outfield.
All of this pales in comparison to the Dodgers losing Clayton Kershaw to the disabled list. Kershaw was once again dominating, was the presumptive Cy Young Award winner, and quite possibly an MVP candidate. With his back injury, no one can be quite sure when he will return. There is no more damaging blow to any team in all of baseball than the Dodgers losing Kershaw.
And yet, the Dodgers keep winning games, and that is why they find themselves the current Wild Card leader.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have put one fewer player on the disabled list than the Mets, but they have also lost 174 more player days to the disabled list. Like the Dodgers, they are also ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card Standings.
The biggest injury the Cardinals have had to deal with is their starting shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Offseason surgery to repair a ligament in his left thumb has limited him to 36 games this season. When he has played, he has been largely ineffective. Initially, the Cardinals opted to go with Mets cast-off Ruben Tejada as Peralta’s short term replacment, but he was inffective and wounded up on the disabled list himself. His replacement, Aledmys Diaz was having a terrific rookie season which led to him being named an All Start. However, he is now on the disabled list with a hairline fracture in this thumb.
The Cardinals have also had a number of key position player injuries. During the season, the Cardinals have placed Brandon Moss and Tommy Pham on the disabled list at points during the season. This has left the team looking to find solutions at first base and center field during the season.
The Cardinals pitching staff has also been hit hard. Lance Lynn went from a member of the rotation to losing the entire 2016 season to Tommy John surgery. Closer Trevor Rosenthal has been dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness all year, and he has finally wound up on the disabled list. One of his key set-up men, Jordan Walden, has yet to throw a pitch all season due to a shoulder strain and a lat injury. The team also had to deal with losing key relievers from last season, Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist, for a stretch of time.
Recently, they had Michael Wacha and Matt Holliday go down with what could be season ending injuries.
Despite these injuries, the Cardinals are 2.5 games up on the Mets this season in the Wild Card standings.
National League East
It is interesting to note that the two teams the Mets are chasing in the National League East, the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals, are two of the healthiest teams in all of baseball.
For the Marlins part, it seems to be a combination of good luck and youth. Seven of the eight Marlins everyday players are 28 and younger. The two 28 year olds, Justin Bour (ankle sprain) and Dee Gordon (PED suspension) are the only players from the starting lineup to be placed on the disabled list this season.
Other than Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins pitching staff has been remarkably healthy. Most importantly, Jose Fernandez has been the dominant starting pitcher he was always supposed to be.
The Nationals being so health is quite remarkable. Each and every season, players like Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman were usually good for at least one disabled list stint during the course of the season. So far this year, Starsburg had a short stint on the disabled list, and Zimmerman just landed on the disabled list with a wrist contusion.
The reason why the Nationals are in a much better place injury wise is part luck, but it is mostly them doing things differently. They created a larger and a multi disciplined medical team of experts to address injuries. They have addressed each and every aspect of player preparation and health. The result so far is a much healthier Nationals team both on and off the field.
The Nationals changing how they have approached injuries show how other teams have adapted and dealt with injuries better than the Mets – so have the other teams competing for the two Wild Card spots. The Mets aren’t trailing in the Wild Card race due to their health. In fact, they may still be in the race because the Dodgers and Cardinals have had to deal with more injuries than they have.
With Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes joining David Wright and Lucas Duda on the disabled list, the Mets needed to go to AAA to find a utility infielder. For some reason or another they chose Ty Kelly.
Kelly has been a nice story this year. He dominated AAA forcing the Mets to finally give him the major league shot the Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Cardinals declined to give him. He had gone from a career minor leaguer to a player who has finally gotten his shot to be a major leaguer at 27 years old. On June 8th, he even hit his first career home run off future Pirates ace James Taillon. Kelly’s story has been one of perseverance and one of triump. However, that terrific story does not make Kelly a major leaguer.
In 14 games, Kelly was over-matched hitting .148/.207/.259 with that one home run being his only extra base hit. He has showed why four other organizations passed over him time and again. He has shown why the Mets buried him on the depth chart after his 14 game stint. Given his performance, it makes you question why he is back with the Mets,e especially with the team having presumably better options down in the minors.
If you are going to stick with the 40 man roster, Eric Campbell would have been a better choice. He is a career .221/.310/.312 hitter, and he hit .159/.270/.222 this year. He had some flashes this year with a five game stretch that saw him hit .273/.467/.273 while playing well defensively at first and third base. On different occasions over the course of his career, he has come up with key pinch hits. Since his demotion, he has hit .363/.493/.593 in AAA, which shows that he has the ability to get on base, and anyone can hit in the Pacific Coast League. Regardless of your position on Campbell, he is a better player than Kelly.
However, Campbell has been given numerous chances to stick with the Mets, and he still hasn’t. It has gotten to the point that the Mets now favor Kelly over him. The Mets have moved on from him. With that in mind, it might be time to consider someone other than Campbell and Kelly.
Again, the Mets should give T.J. Rivera consideration. He was a Pacific Coast League All STytar, and he is hitting .340/.380/.490 in 90 games. He has more defensive versatility than Kelly and Campbell as he plays all four infield positions, and he can also play left field. He may not be a plus defender at any of those positions, but neither are Kelly or Campbell. He may be a 27 year old rookie, but so was the older Kelly when he was called-up with year. Overall, the only difference between Rivera and Kelly is that Kelly got his shot; a shot in which Kelly has mostly failed.
Admittedly, a pennant race is not the best time to give someone like Rivera a shot to prove he is capable of playing in the majors. Then again, a pennant race is an even worse time to keep sending out a player like Kelly who has shown he struggles at the major league level. If you are going to pass on Campbell, who has shown some ability to play at the major league level, the Mets should have called-up Rivera who provides the team more versatility despite not being a switch hitter like Kelly.
Sooner or later, you’d have to imagine Rivera will get his fairy tale shot like Kelly did. He might even do more with the chance than Kelly has. It would be in the Mets best interests to find out.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors
Unlike last season, the Mets were proactive in replacing an injured player on their roster when the obtained James Loney from the San Diego Padres to replace Lucas Duda who was slated to be on the disabled list for a long time with a broken back.
It was a good move as Loney was not only cheap, he was immediately available. He was certainly better than what the Mets internal options of Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly.
Coming into the season, Loney was a .285/.338/.411 hitter who averaged 10 homers and 64 RBI in a season. His OPS+ was 105 meaning he was roughly a league average hitter. In his 55 games with the Mets, Loney has been a slightly better version of himself hitting .289/.339/.443 with six homers and 23 RBI. His OPS+ is 108, which is what Mo Vaughn‘s OPS+ was as a Met. Long story short, Loney is the perfect stopgap, but he is not a difference maker. The problem is he was taking over for a difference maker in the lineup.
Since Duda became the Mets everyday first baseman, he has hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. His OPS+ over that stretch is 133 meaning he is batting at an All Star caliber level, and he is a difference maker at the plate. To put it into context, David Wright‘s career OPS+ is 133.
Essentially, the Mets have gone from a David Wright level of production at first base back to the days of Mo Vaughn. This drop in production goes a long way to explain why the Mets offense has been struggling since Duda has gone down with the broken back.
With the grim prognosis for Duda this season, and with the trade deadline having gone by, the Mets never made the necessary upgrade at first base. If the Mets were to shift Jay Bruce (128 OPS+ this season) or Michael Conforto to first base (129 OPS+ last year), they would go a long way to replacing that production. It is certainly worth a shot. The time for stopgaps is over. The Mets now need to find a real replacement for Duda’s offense. That isn’t Loney. Hopefully, it could be Bruce or Conforto.
One thing that is lost when evaluating a player is their impact on the clubhouse. The one thing we all saw with Juan Uribe with the Mets last year was he was a great clubhouse presence.
He was the guy who walked into the clubhouse, and he suddenly owned the place. He was blaring the Backstreet Boys on the stereo. He felt comfortable joking around with everyone including Captain David Wright. He also was on hand to remind everyone that baseball is the greatest sport in the world. It takes a well equipped man to act this way, and as we found out this year, Uribe is that kind of guy.
The two time World Series winner’s impact on the 2015 Mets was understated. He kept that team both loose and focused. He helped that team win the division and go to the World Series. Uribe was having a similar impact on the Indians’ clubhouse this year until his release:
Tough part of the game: Juan Uribe has been designated.
Juan is a true pro. We loved him here and will miss him. pic.twitter.com/ieeWXvBW5y
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) August 1, 2016
The reason why Uribe was released is he hasn’t been very good this year hitting .206/.259/.332 with nine doubles, seven homers, and 25 RBI in 73 games. That matches the lackluster production he had with the Mets in 44 games when he hit .219/.301/.430 with nine doubles, six homers, and 20 RBI. Fact is, Uribe is a 37 year old player who shouldn’t be playing everyday, nor should he be relied upon to provide offense. What you want him for is his presence.
The Mets also should want him due to their rash of injuries.
The Mets have already lost Wright, Jose Reyes, Lucas Duda, and Asdrubal Cabrera to injury. No one can guarantee when or if any of these players can return. In the interim, the Mets have unproven, but playing well, Matt Reynolds at shortstop alongside hot hitting, but still susceptible to right-hand pitching, Wilmer Flores at third. The short bench makes the Mets play James Loney everyday despite him being unable to hit left-handed pitching. Additionally, the Mets are now carrying Ty Kelly on the bench.
At a minimum, Uribe is a much better option off the bench than Kelly. Also, with his ability to play both second and third, he opens up some platoon options thereby allowing the Mets to maximize their offense against left-handed pitching (even if he’s been better against righties this year).
Overall, given the current state of the Mets, Uribe is a viable option for the Mets. He’s even more attractive when you consider how valuable he is in the clubhouse. Once he’s available, the Mets should go out and bring him back for another World Series run.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online