Lucas Duda

Mets Don’t Go Back to the Future

With the addition of John Olerud and the emergence of Rick Reed, the 1997 Mets made a tremendous leap forward going 88-74 to be a factor in the Wild Card race.  However, they would eventually lose out to a Florida Marlins team that was literally built to win the World Series that one season.

After that season, the Marlins disbanded because, as we were first learning out, that’s what the Marlins do when they win.  The Mets were one of the main beneficiaries of the the offseason sell-off with them obtaining Al Leiter and Dennis Cook.  Then the real boon came when the Marlins had swung a deal with the Dodgers to obtain Mike Piazza to unload a bunch of big contracts.  With the Mets struggling, due in large part to Todd Hundley‘s elbow injury, the Mets moved quickly and added Piazza.  With a week left in the season, the Mets won to go to 88-68.  All the Mets needed to do in the final week of the season was to win one more game to at least force a playoff with the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs for the Wild Card.  They didn’t.  Once again, finishing the year 88-74 was not good enough for the Wild Card.

Entering the final game of the 2016 season, with the Mets having already clinched the Wild Card, the Mets needed just one more win to finish the year at 88-74.

There was a version of me 20 years younger that wanted to see the Mets get that win to erase some of the bad feelings that an 88-74 record created.  It was going to be a difficult task because the Mets objective wasn’t to win this game.  The sole objective was to just get through it with everybody healthy so as not to compromise the team for the winner-take-all Wild Card Game this Wednesday at Citi Field.

For starters, it was Gabriel Ynoa who took the mound instead of Noah Syndergaard. Terry Collins would also give an at-bat a piece to Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes.  Jay Bruce would get two.  T.J. Rivera, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera, and Travis d’Arnaud would not play.  This was a full-on keep people fresh and don’t get anyone injured operation.

Ynoa would acquit himself well even if he couldn’t go five.  He would only throw 52 pitches in 4.2 innings allowing five hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with two strikeouts.  Collins would lift him for Jerry Blevins, who is probably the one Mets reliever who could’ve used some work, to get out of the fifth.  At that point, the Phillies were only up 1-0 on a third inning Maikel Franco RBI single.

The Mets would eventually go ahead in this game making the 88-74 season a reality.  In the sixth, Matt Reynolds doubled, and he would score on an Alejandro De Aza RBI singles.  In the seventh, Kelly Johnson hit a leadoff single, and he would score on a Kevin Plawecki two out RBI double.

The lead would not last long as the Phillies went to work against Erik Goeddel in the bottom of the seventh.  After an Andres Blanco single, an Aaron Altherr walk, and a Lucas Duda throwing error, the Phillies loaded the bases with no outs.  Cesar Hernandez brought home the first two runs on an RBI single, and then Jimmy Paredes knocked in the third run of the inning with a sacrifice fly.  That Paerdes sacrifice fly was an extra base hit if anyone other than Juan Lagares was manning center field.  Lagares once again reminded everyone that he is the best fielding center fielder in baseball, and that if he can at least manage one at-bat per game, he needs to be on the postseason roster.

The Phillies then added a run in the eighth off Jim Henderson to make the game 5-2.  That would be the final score of a game where both teams reached their primary objective.  The Phillies were able to provide a fitting send-off for Ryan Howard removing him from the game in the eighth so he could leave to a standing ovation.  The Mets just got through the game without suffering any injuries, and also got much needed reps for Duda and Lagares.

The Mets weren’t able to get that final win to erase the angst of the past when 88 wins just wasn’t good enough for the postseason.  Ironically, 87 was good enough this year.  With those 87 wins, the Mets put the capper on a mostly frustrating season.  However, in the end, they were able to go to make consecutive postseason appearances for only the second time in their history.  When viewed through that prism, this was a successful and enjoyable season.

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That Was Wild 

Baseball is funny. There was about a four month stretch where watching Mets baseball was a tedious and frustrating exercise. It was about as painful as watching Yoenis Cespedes try to play on an injured quad. 

Speaking of pain, seemingly everyone got hurt. Of all the people in the Opening Day lineup, only Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto didn’t wind up on the disabled list at some point. With Conforto making two trips to AAA, that left Granderson as the only Met starter available all season. 

We saw something similar last year.  However, we saw last year that a team can make it to the postseason with some big trade deadline moves, a weak schedule to finish the season, and tremendous pitching. 

Well, the trade deadline wasn’t the boon it was last year. Jay Bruce would struggle mightily until the last week of the season. 

The starting pitching we all expected wasn’t there. Matt Harvey was never healthy and needed season ending surgery. Zack Wheeler had multiple setbacks during his Tommy John rehab, and he wouldn’t pitch this year. Both Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom pitched with injuries until they couldn’t anymore. Both had season ending surgeries. 

Speaking of season ending surgeries, the Mets also lost David Wright to cervical fusion surgery and Neil Walker to discectomy. Speaking of bad backs, Lucas Duda was nowhere to be found for most of the year with him suffering a stress fracture in his back. 

Still, the Mets made it back to the postseason. They did take advantage of that weak season ending schedule. Since August 20th, the Mets have the best record in baseball. How did we get here?

Well, Noah Syndergaard and his 95 MPH slider had a Cy Young caliber season. Bartolo Colon had his best season as a Met. Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia were the most dominant 8-9 combination in all of baseball. Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman became not only unlikely contributors, but also reliable starters in the stretch run. 

Offensively, Asdrubal Cabrera became the best hitter in all of baseball the final month of the season. Cespedes got healthy, and Granderson regained his stroke. Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson combined to reasonably replicate Walker’s production until Flores got hurt and Johnson regressed. At that point, T.J. Rivera took complete advantage of the opportunity with the 27 year old undrafted rookie playing solid defense and spraying line drives all over the field. And yes, Jose Reyes returned to the Mets after his domestic violence issues to play better than anyone could’ve reasonably expected. 

That coupled with the Giants and Cardinals playing sub .500 ball, the Mets had their 1973 window, and the Mets took full advantage. All they needed to do was win one more game. 

Fittingly, Colon got the start (pun intended). He’d get a 2-0 lead off a pair of RBI singles from Rivera and Reyes. As he has seemingly done all year, Reyes scored Travis d’Arnaud from second. As usual, it was a questionable send by Tim Teufel as the ball beat d’Arnaud to the plate. Fortunately, the throw was to the first base side of the plate, and d’Arnaud made a nifty slide to just avoid the tag. 

That’s when ghost of Phillies past Ryan Howard tried to put a damper on the party by hitting a game tying two run home run. Up until the Howard home run, he was cruising and showing no ill effects from his tendon injury. 

In the sixth, James Loney would do his best Dave Magadan impression:

He also had a Cabrera impression with an impressive bat flip. 

Of course, Cabrera would be heard from with an RBI single in the ninth. Cespedes would also be heard from, but in a completely different way altogether:

Reed and Familia locked down the eighth and ninth inning for the 51st time this season, which is by far the most in the majors. 

The last out was recorded by Conforto making a sliding catch in left. The last time a left fielder with the number 30 caught the clinching out was Cliff Floyd in 2006.  Hopefully, these Mets can have a long playoff run like that team. Honestly though, we’re hoping for more than that. 

With that, the 2016 Mets completed their 1973 Mets regular season run. Now comes the hard part. That begins Wednesday with Syndergaard taking the mound against either the Giants or Cardinals in the winner take all Wild Card Game. 

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The Bruce Is Loose

Coming into tonight’s game, the Phillies made overtures they wanted to knock the Mets out if the postseason. 

Early on, Cameron Rupp would put the money where his mouth is by hitting a second inning sacrifice fly off Robert Gsellman. With Alec Asher starting with three perfect innings, it appeared that the Mets would have a dog fight on their hands. The Mets were up to the task. 

In the fourth, Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson would hit back-to-back two out singles to set the stage for Jay Bruce. Two weeks ago, it would be inning and rally over. Now?  He’s scorching hot, and he confined the hot streak with an RBI single in this spot. T.J. Rivera followed with an RBI single of his own to make it 2-1. 

That’s as close as the Phillies would get despite Jimmy Paredes giving one a ride in the sixth that looked as if it would put the Phillies ahead until Granderson ran his long fly down:

That would close the book on Gsellman who had a terrific slider going all night long. After that second inning rally, the Phillies wouldn’t get much going against him. Gsell man’s final line was six innings, seven hits, one run, one earned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. He’d hand the ball off to the unstoppable 7-8-9 combination of Fernando Salas–Addison Reed–Jeurys Familia. 

Unlike most games where they find themselves walking a tightrope, the Mets would get them some insurance runs. 

First, Bruce would chase Asher with a home run in the seventh making it 3-1.  Then, in the eighth, the Mets would have one of the more bizarre rallies, you will ever see. 

It started innocently enough with an Alejandro De Aza pinch hit single. He’d move to second on a Jose Reyes single, and then he’d find himself on third when Aaron Altherr overran the ball. Then, well, it was one of the more bizarre sequences, you’ll ever see.

While Reyes was running back to first with his hands on his head, Ryan Howard just couldn’t get to it. He couldn’t get to a ball that landed on the first base bag!  With that the ball bounced off the bag, with Cespedes reaching safely, Reyes being forced out at second, and De Aza scoring from third. 

Granderson would then walk moving Cespedes into scoring position. Bruce then followed this tomfoolery with an RBI single just against the shift to make it 5-1 Mets. Bruce continued the hot hitting going 3-4 with a run, three RBI, and a homer. After his RBI single, he was lifted for Juan Lagares for defense as Collins was taking no chances.  

With the Mets looking to potentially lock down a Wild Card spot tonight, Collins stuck with the Reed-Familia plan to close it out. With the appearance, Familia would set a career high in appearances and games finished. 

Depending on the outcome of the Cardinals game, the Mets mission for the 2016 season is almost finished.  

Game Notes: Lucas Duda returned to the lineup going 0-4. James Loney replaced him for defense in the ninth. This was Ron Darling‘s last game of the year on SNY. Something tells me it won’t be his last Mets game of the year. 

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Projected Wild Card Game Roster

One of the quirks of the Wild Card Game is a team is able to create a standalone 25 man roster just for that game.  After the completion of the Wild Card Game, the winning team is able to reset its roster for the Division Series.  With that in mind, when the Mets construct their roster, they really have no need to carry extra starting pitchers.  Instead, they can carry an extra reliever or two, and they can add a couple of bats on the bench for pinch hitting and running opportunities.  With that in mind, here is how I would construct the roster.

Catchers (2) – Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera

With the Wild Card Game starting pitcher likely to be either Syndergaard or Lugo, it seems that Rivera will be Terry Collins choice as the starting catcher.  If the Mets fall behind early, he may very well go to d’Arnaud for offense.  However, for now, Rivera seems the likely starter.

First Base (2) – Lucas Duda and James Loney

The only variable we don’t know right now is whether Duda can play everyday during a postseason run.  However, we have seen him play effectively here and there as he gets more playing time.  If Duda is ready to go, he has to start.  If not, Loney can start with Duda being the power bat off the bench.  If Duda does start, Loney is there for insurance for Duda’s back, and he can hit right-handed pitching reaosnably well in the event the Mets need an extra pinch hitter.

Second Base (2) – Kelly Johnson and T.J. Rivera

If the Mets face the Giants and Madison Bumgarner, it is likely Rivera gets the start.  If the Mets face the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez, it is likely Johnson gets the start.  No matter which one gets the start, we know that the other one will be the best pinch hitting option when the Mets need a bit hit.

Third Base (1) – Jose Reyes

At this point, barring something unusual happening, Reyes is the team’s everyday third baseman and leadoff hitter.  He also serves as a backup shortstop in the event something happens to Cabrera

Shortstop (1) – Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is the best hitter in the major leagues during the month of September, and while he has two injured knees, he is able to effectively handle all the balls that come within the vicinity of shortstop.

Outfield – (5) Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Alejandro De Aza, Curtis Granderson

Given how Bruce’s bat has come alive the past few games and with the way Conforto has been adapting to being a pinch hitter, both players should find themselves on the Wild Card Game roster.  What will be curious is whether it is Bruce or De Aza that finds themselves in the outfield with Cespedes and Granderson.  In a winner-take-all situation, Collins just might be inclined to go with the defense over the bat.

Starting Pitchers (3) – Bartolo Colon, Seth Lugo, and Noah Syndergaard

Whether or not Syndergaard pitches on Sunday, he has to be on the roster.  You cannot go down without the ability to throw your best pitcher, even if it is for one inning.  Same goes for your second best pitcher, which is why Colon should be on the roster.  As for Lugo, he should make the roster because: 1) he has experience as a short reliever; and 2) it is his turn in the rotation, so he can give you as many innings as you need.

Bullpen (5) – Jerry Blevins, Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Fernando Salas and Josh Smoker

If things go to plan, it is likely the Mets are not going to need more than Reed and Familia.  If the starter is able to go six, Reed can pitch the seventh and Familia can get the final two innings like he did in the NLDS clincher last year.  In the event things don’t go as smoothly, this bullpen can effectively mix and match.  Smoker seems like a given to make the roster because it gives the Mets an extra lefty in the pen, one with reverse splits, that can get a big strikeout when the Mets are in a jam.

Bubble –

If the Mets were to go with this group of players, and it seems likely they would that leaves the team with 22 players on the roster with decisions to make for the final four spots.  Here is a case for each of the potential bubble players:

Position Players

UT Eric Campbell  – As we saw when the Mets faced Adam Conley and the Marlins, Collins has fallen back in the habit of using Campbell as his right-handed first baseman.  In the event the Mets face the Giants, Campbell may well find himself getting a postseason start.  If not, he has shown the ability to be a very effective pinch hitter in tight games.

UT Ty Kelly – Collins has liked using as a pinch runner towards the back-end of the season.  Even though he is much better hitting right-handed in his short major league career, Kelly’s switch hitting ability does have some usefulness in neutralizing an opposing manager’s ability to go to a lefty/righty in a big spot for multiple outs.

CF Juan Lagares – Lagares just started to swing the bat, but we still don’t know if he can do it multiple times in a game if necessary.  However, with the Mets not needing to carry as many pitchers, Lagares could be kept on the roster to bunt, pinch run, and play defense in the late innings.

C Kevin Plawecki – Plawecki has not done much of anything offensively this season.  However, he remains a good defensive catcher, and his presence on the team would permit Collins to be aggressive in bringing in d’Arnaud for offense with full knowledge that the Mets have other catcher on the bench.

SS Matt Reynolds – Especially given Cabrera’s injuries further limiting his range, Reynolds could very well be the Mets best defensive shortstop.  Should Cabrera have to leave the game with an injury, Reynolds could step right in defensively.  Additionally, in the event Collins needs to start double switching people in and out of the game to keep a pitcher in longer, Reynolds’ ability to competently play second, third, short, and left make him a versatile and valuable bench piece.

Bullpen

LHP Josh Edgin – His chances of making the roster increase if the Mets play the Giants given the presence of Denard Span and Brandon Belt.  In that event, the Mets may want that one extra lefty to have multiple matchup opportunities.  Against the Cardinals, the need for the extra left-hander won’t be as great.

RHP Erik Goeddel – Even if it has been mostly in mop-up duty, Goeddel has pitched much better in September than he has all season.  Unlike Edgin or Henderson (below), Goedell has also shown the ability to go multiple innings lately thereby increasing his usefulness out of the pen.

RHP Robert Gsellman – Gsellman could make the team as a long reliever with Collins then using Lugo as a one inning reliever who can let it fly for one or two innings.  Additionally, with Gsellman’s sinker, Collins could elect to go with him in a situation in which the Mets need to get a double play.

RHP Jim Henderson – Henderson hasn’t been the same since coming back from the disabled list.  With that said, he’s still striking out 10.6 per nine, and so far this month, he has seven scoreless appearances.  More than any of the above, he has the biggest upside.  However, when he loses with 95+ MPH fastball, and it happens without a moment’s notice, he’s going to get hit around.

Prediction

Who the Mets carry for the final three spots will be largely based upon the opponent.  In the event that the Mets face the Giants, the odds of Campbell and Edgin making the roster go up significantly.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, who have multiple effective lefties out of the pen, someone like Kelly with his switch hitting ability could see his chances of making the roster increase.

Overall, considering how the Mets have handled the catching situation late in the season, the Mets should probably carry Plawecki as a third catcher.  Doing so will permit Collins to switch out Rivera for d’Arnaud if the Mets fall behind early or if the Mets need a right-handed pinch hitter.

If the Mets face the Giants, it is likely that Campbell will make the roster as the starting first baseman.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the Mets will then likely carry Kelly as a pinch runner/pinch hitter or Reynolds.  Given how the concerns over Cabrera’s knees, and the need to double switch late in games, and because Reynolds has some extra pop in his bat than Kelly, Reynolds should be the choice.

The last spot becomes dicey.  As the Mets bullpen is constituted, the team has multiple pitchers who can go multiple innings thereby negating the need to carry an eighth reliever.  This choice here will likely be and should be opponent driven.  If the Mets face the Giants, Edgin should be the choice so the Mets can get multiple lefty/lefty matchups late in games.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the team should probably carry both Reynolds and Kelly.  This would help the Mets neutralize the Cardinals unleashing their left-handed relievers against the Mets late in the game.

Of course, if Lagares is truly healthy enough to swing the bat, as he has done the past few games, he definitely needs to be on the roster.  He had a good postseason last year, and he’s the team’s best defensive outfielder.

There are a number of interesting decisions ahead, and ultimately it will depend on the opponent and whether the Cardinals keep enough heat on the Giants so Bumgarner had to pitch on Sunday.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online

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Seth Lugo and the Mets Take Care of Business

That’s exactly what we’ve come to expect from a Seth Lugo start. He’s not going to give up more than two earned runs. He’s going to bear down and be at his best when there are runners on base. Most importantly, he’s going to give the Mets a chance to win. 

In the first, Lugo navigated his way out of a jam after a Martin Prado two run homer. Lugo would intentionally walk Justin Bour after a Giancarlo Stanton two out double to get to Jeff Mathis. Lugo struck out Mathis to get out of the inning. 

In the third, the Marlins would have runners at first and second with one out and Stanton walking to the plate. Lugo got Stanton to foul out, and then he got Bour to groundout to end the inning. 

In the sixth, Collins wouldn’t let Lugo get out if the “jam.”  After a Bour one out single, Collins lifted Lugo at 82 pitches so face the same Mathis who Lugo struck out to get out of the first. Hansel Robles would justify Collins decision by striking out Mathis and then inducing an Adeiny Hechavarria grounder to end the inning. 

That set up the Fernando Salas–Addison Reed–Jeurys Familia 7-8-9 tandem to close out the 5-2 win. 

Once again, the Mets scored their runs off the long ball. 

In the second, James Loney, who was starting in place of Lucas Duda and his sore back, hit a two run homer off Jose Urena to tie the score. 

In the fourth, Lugo started a rally with a two out double. He then came around to score on a Jose Reyes double. 

In the fifth, Jay Bruce continued his hit hitting with a two run homer scoring Curtis Granderson. Over Bruce’s last five games, Bruce has gone 7-16 with three homers and five RBI. That accounts for roughly 40% of Bruce’s homers and RBI as a Met. 

With that, the Mets magic number to win the Wild Card now stands at three with three games left in the season. The Mets control their own destiny, and as long as they put together three more games like this, they will certainly return to the postseason. 

Game Notes: Granderson was 4-4 with a walk. He has now reached on eight straight plate appearances. Asdrubal Cabrera somehow went 0-5. Juan Lagares came on for Bruce for defense, and he was 0-1 at the plate. Familia recorded his 50th save of the season surpassing Francisco Cordero and Jose Valverde for the most saves by a Dominican born pitcher in a season. 

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Mets Beat Up On the Marlins

After last night, the Mets needed to get things back on track lest they once again miss the playoffs due to them losing games to the Marlins. Things didn’t get off to a good start with Dee Gordon hitting a leadoff single, stealing second, and coming home on a Marcell Ozuna single.

Gordon’s stolen base would be the 48th stolen base against Noah Syndergaard. This was about as poor a start as you could expect. After that Syndergaard would get locked in. 

Syndergaard would go six innings allowing five hits, one earned, and no walks with eight strikeouts. It’s exactly the type of start both he and the Mets needed. 

The Mets quickly claimed the lead off Tom Koehler, who the Mets hit very well. In the second, Jay Bruce continued his hot hitting with a two run homer. He would go 2-5 with a run, two RBI, and a homer. 

In the third, Yoenis Cespedes hit a monster two run homer over the “Home Run Sculpture.”

This marked the first time both Bruce and Cespedes homered in the same game for the Mets. 

The Mets would have a 4-1 lead, and Don Mattingly would do all he could do to keep the Marlins in the game making seven pitching changes. It worked until the eighth inning. 

The Mets put a huge five spot on the board blowing the game wide open. After the Marlins intentionally walked Cespedes to load the bases, Curtis Granderson hit a two RBI single making it 6-1. 

Bruce then singled to reload the bases, and then with two outs, Lucas Duda got his biggest hit since being activated from the disabled list with a bases clearing double. Duda has been sharper than expected in his return, but this was his best game. On the night, he was 2-3 with three RBI, two walks (one intentional), and the double. 

As if things weren’t good enough with a 9– 1 lead, the Mets scored three in the top of the ninth to make it 12-1. The bases were again loaded. Michael Conforto hit an RBI force out, and Granderson hit a RBI double to deep center. It was a huge night for Granderson with him going 2-4 with two runs, three RBI, two walks, and a double. 

The final run was scored on a Juan Lagares sacrifice fly. It was the first time Lagares swung the bat at a pitch since returning from surgery to repair a torn tendon in his left thumb. 

Tonight, everything was clicking, and the Mets took care of business. Their magic number is now four. 

Game Notes: Syndergaard was 2-3 at the plate. Jose Reyes was 3-6 with two runs and a double. Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia each pitched an inning after not having pitched in four days. 

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This Is How Braves Fans Must’ve Felt

Tonight, I got some sense of what it was like to be a Braves fan when Mike Piazza homered off Steve Karsay:

An emotional Dee Gordon, wearing a Jose Fernandez jersey just like the rest of his teammates, hit a leadoff home run off Bartolo Colon. As a fan of the game, you tip your cap, and you appreciate the moment. 

Starting with that home run, you got a sense the emotional Marlins team needed this game a little more, and they were meant to win it. 

Still, it was hard to watch as a Mets fan as the Mets have not yet clinched a Wild Card spot. It was hard to watch Colon throwing batting practice fastballs while seemingly getting squeezed by John Hirschbeck. I was hard to watch Ray Ramirez have to come visit him on the mound. That one was especially hard to watch. Thankfully, Colon brushed him off. 

All of Colon’s 2.1 innings were tough to watch. You had to question what Terry Collins was thinking leaving him out there to get knocked around to the tune of eight hits and seven runs. As Colon was fooling no one, he recorded no strikeouts. On the bright side, Gabriel Ynoa stabilized things for 1.2 innings before passing it off to Rafael Montero, who actually threw a scoreless inning. 

The Mets offense was a no show as well. They were shut down by Adam Conley, who pitched an emotional three innings before handing it off to the Marlins bullpen. Collectively, they down the Mets in the same way Fernandez, who was scheduled to pitch tonight, would have. 

The Mets had their chances. In the fifth, the Mets scored two runs on an Asdrubal Cabrera two RBI double. Who else would come through?  

In the sixth, the Mets loaded the bases with one out, but they would get nothing out of it. A Lucas Duda strikeout and Kelly Johnson ground out later, the Mets would come away happy. 

In the eighth, Duda did come through with a two out RBI single.  Alejandro De Aza would then strike out looking to end the rally. 

Ultimately, the Mets would lose 7-3 It was a hard night for all, including Yoenis Cespedes and the Mets:

https://t.co/8xWmNoIBbi

Even with the Mets fighting for the Wild Card, on this night, the Marlins just had a little more to play for:

Game Notes: Jay Bruce started over Michael Conforto. He was 1-4, and he misplayed a Justin Bour line drive into an RBI triple. 

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Terry Collins Decision of the Game – He Had His Best Game of the Year

Normally in this spot, I’d point out something Terry Collins did to really hinder his chances of winning not just the previous game, but in some instances, things he did that hurt his team’s chances of winning a game. That didn’t happen yesterday. 

Collins was put in the tough spot of having to start Sean Gilmartin because Noah Syndergaard was too sick to pitch. If you’re arguing someone else should have started, it’s just blind Collins’ hatred.

Logan Verrett forfeited the opportunity to be a spot starter with some poor starts when he took Matt Harvey‘s spot in the rotation. Between those starts and his work Friday night, he established he shouldn’t get the start. 
Rafael Montero has also shown himself undeserving of a start. He’d prove he shouldn’t have started giving up five runs in 3.1 innings of work. 
Gilmartin was the reasonable choice. When the Phillies put up a five spot on him with only two outs in the first, it was reasonable to go to Montero. Given the state of the Mets bullpen, it was the right move to stick with Montero for 3.1 innings despite the Mets falling down 10-0 in the fourth. 

At that point, Collins made his best decision of the year.  After giving his regulars a shot to put some runs on the board in the fourth, he got them out if the game.  

It was a chance for Asdrubal Cabrera to rest both of his knees, and Yoenis Cespedes to rest his quad. It also allowed Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes to get a bit of a breather. 

Collins would also keep the right people in the game. Both Lucas Duda and Michael Conforto need to get at bats to get them ready for the postseason. Also, you want to give Travis d’Arnaud, who is still the team’s best offensive catcher, a chance to get going. 

It also allowed the Mets to get two former first round picks, Gavin Cecchini and Brandon Nimmo, some playing time and some exposure to the pennant race. It also allowed the team to take an extended look at Ty Kelly and Eric Campbell, both of whom may be on the bubble for a postseason roster spot. 

As it turns out, this group wasn’t content on playing out the string. The bench players and future regulars did all they could do to tie the game with them falling mercilessly short. That speaks positive of both them and their manager. 

It’s bizarre to think Collins best game was in a game the Mets were down early 10-0. But that’s the thing about judging managers, you just want them to have the right process and let the chips fall where they may. The more often your manager has the right thought process, and puts his team in a position to succeed, you’re going to win games. 

Coincidentally, Collins managed this game extremely well, and as it turned out, the team almost pulled out a victory. More importantly, this team should be fresher and in a good position to win tomorrow afternoon.  

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Terry Collins Decision of the Game – James Loney Good Defender

It was just a little over 24 hours ago when James Loney had made two really poor plays in the field.  The first was his inability to stretch for a low pickoff throw from Bartolo Colon (imagine that a low pickoff throw by the base) that would send the speedy runner Mallex Smith to second base.  Fortunately, that wouldn’t cause any harm as Colon was quick on a come backer, and he would catch Smith straying too far off second base.

The second Loney play would help lead to a Mets loss.  Leading off the bottom of the eight, Ender Inciarte hit a groundball that went right through Loney’s glove and legs.  It was a pivotal play that saw the fast Inciarte reach and eventually score the tying run.  The Braves would also score a run in the top of the ninth, and Inciarte would be prominently featured again as he stole what could’ve been a walk-off three run homer from Yoenis Cespedes in the bottom of the ninth.

After the game, Collins acted surprised at the Loney error calling him a good defensive first baseman.  He is definitively not, and he hasn’t been in some time.

This year, Loney has a -2.8 UZR and a 0 DRS.  If Loney had enough innings to qualify, his UZR would rank 13th and his DRS would rank 10th in the majors.

Over the past three seasons, Loney has averaged a -2.2 UZR and a -1 DRS.  Those numbers ranks him as 14th in hte majors in DRS and UZR.  For what it’s worth Lucas Duda, who is still not fully back from his back injury, ranks ahead of Loney in both catergories (11th UZR and 6th DRS)

Looking over those numbers, Loney isn’t a terrible first baseman.  He is just a slightly below average one.  Even if you were not one that subscribes to the advanced defensive metrics, it is hard to overlook his unwillingness/inability to stretch for balls throw to first base as well as the errors he has made in the field.  Despite only playing 94 games at first base, Loney has eight errors, which is coincidentally gives him the lowest fielding percentage of any first baseman in the National League this season with a minimum of 700 innings played over there.

All of this is prelude to what happened last night.

With the Phillies starting the left-handed Adam Morgan, Collins elected to go with Eric Campbell at first base over Loney.  With the way Loney has hit in the second half and the way Loney has hit lefties his entire career, you’d be hard pressed to disagree with Collins over the decision to sit Loney.

In the sixth inning, the Phillies would bring on the right-handed pitcher Luis Garcia to pitch, and Collins would pinch hit Loney for Campbell.  Again, you’d be hard pressed to argue with Collins on this one as he’s removing Campbell from the game; a Campbell that was 0-2 with a strikeout on the night.  Understandably, Loney remained in the game.  Loney would again cost the Mets with his defense.

In the top of the eighth, and the Mets having a 4-3 lead, Odubel Herrera hit a sharp grounder up the middle that T.J. Rivera made an incredible diving stop to save a run with the speedy Cesar Hernandez on second base.  Rivera popped up, and threw to first base.  It was a close play, but Herrera was safe.  Look at Loney’s stretch on the play:

On what was a bang-bang play, Loney fully stretched.  If he did, there would have been two outs instead of one.  That might’ve completely changed Addison Reed‘s pitching sequence to Maikel Franco, who would hit a go-ahead three run homer.

Now, to be fair, Collins’ decision to leave Loney in the game was reasonable, as no one is quite sure right now whether Duda can physically play first base after having played there Sunday.  Overall, what is wrong with Collins is his mindset that Loney is a good defender.  He’s not, and he hasn’t been in a few year.  And if not for the heroics of Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera, Loney’s inability to stretch would have had a profound impact on what would have been another horrible Mets loss.

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Mets Should Pick Up Jay Bruce’s Option

No matter how you look at it, the Jay Bruce acquisition has been a disaster for the Mets.  In 40 games, Bruce has hit .176/.255/.289 with only four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI.  Bruce has gone from the major league leader in RBI to tied for 30th in the majors and 10th in the National League.  He went from hitting .360 with runners in scoring position to .172 with the Mets.

Yesterday was rock bottom for him.  He got mixed up with Curtis Granderson on a catchable flyball that lead to a Matt Kemp RBI single instead of a an out with Bruce having a chance to throw the runner out at home.  At the plate, Bruce was 0-3.  Worse yet, when the Mets were rallying to try the game, Terry Collins pinch hit Eric Campbell for him when the Braves brought in the lefty Ian Kroll to face him.  Bruce was brought to the Mets just for these RBI situations.  However, it has now gotten to the point that no one trusts him in those spots.

Bruce’s struggles have led some to suggest the Mets should decline Bruce’s $13 million option and give him his $1 million buy out.  If the Mets were to do that, it would be a very poor decision.

Over his career, Bruce is a .247/.317/.465 hitter who averages 26 homers and 81 RBI.  With Bruce turning 30 years old next year, there is every reason to believe Bruce’s struggles with the Mets are the result of a player struggling when joining a new team more than it is a Jason Bay falling apart when signing the Mets and playing his games under the old outfield configurations of Citi Field.  So yes, there is reason to believe Bruce will return to form next season whether or not he is wearing a Mets uniform.

Admittedly, the Mets are going to have a glut of outfielders next year.  Curtis Granderson is under contract for another year.  The Mets figure to give Michael Conforto an everyday job next year.  Juan Lagares should be healthy and could form a center field platoon with Brandon Nimmo.  Furthermore, Justin Ruggiano, who mashed lefties in the short time he was with the Mets, is arbitration eligible.  In addition to that, the Mets should do all they can to bring back Yoenis Cespedes in the even he opts out of his contract.  Looking over this list, it’s hard to find a spot for Bruce in the Mets outfield.

The Mets could shift Bruce to first base.  However, Lucas Duda, who has been a much better offensive player than Bruce, is still under team control.  Additionally, with the overcrowded outfield, it is possible the Mets will seek to move Conforto to first base as has been recommended by Keith Hernandez.  Overall, no matter where you look, there may not be room for Bruce.  With that in mind, why pick up his option?

The reason is Bruce is an asset in what is going to be a weak free agent class.  After Cespedes, the best free agent outfielders will be Ian Desmond, Mark Trumbo, and Jose Bautista.  Each of these free agents have their own issues.

Desmond was a surprising All Star outfielder after struggling last year with the Nationals.  However, overlooking his stats, Desmond has a number of issues.  First, he is hitting .239/.287/.362 in the second half.  Second, he’s showing himself to be a platoon bat hitting .272/.329/.442 against righties and .338/.373/.507 against lefties.  Lastly, Desmond appears to be a product of Globe Life Park hitting .336/.374/.516 at home and .244/.309/.405 on the road.

Trumbo is essentially Bruce with vastly inferior defense.  He also has the same issues as Desmond.  He’s hitting .188/.266/.431 in the second half.  He’s hitting .183/.232/.415 against lefties.  He’s also hitting .257/.337/.552 at Camden Yards and .242/.282/.498 on the road.

Bautista is a 35 year old outfielder who has taken a step back this season.  Over his last six seasons with the Blue Jays, he played at a superstar level hitting .268/.390/.555 while averaging 38 homers and 97 RBI.    This year he is only hitting .258/.359/.433 with only 18 homers and 59 RBI.

Another team could look at these options and determine they would rather obtain Bruce who should have similar production at a reasonable $13 million price tag.  Teams may also prefer to keep their first round pick rather than give it up for Desmond, Trumbo, or Bautista.  Additionally, if Bruce bounces back from his struggles with the Mets, the acquiring team could make him a qualifying offer allowing them to obtain a compensatory first round pick in the event Bruce leaves them next offseason.

There’s the other issue.  Cespedes is far from a lock to return.  In that scenario, the Mets may feel compelled to find a player who can put up the power numbers Cespedes does.  Like it or not, the Mets only real opportunity to replace Cespedes’ bat in the lineup will be a Bruce caliber bat.  With Bruce most likely being the cheapest option as well as the option that doesn’t require the Mets to forfeit a first round pick, he is probably the Mets best Cespedes replacement (NOTE: no one can truly replace Cespedes).

So yes, Bruce has been a terrible with the Mets.  However, that shouldn’t prevent the Mets from picking up his option as he is going to have value for someone next year.  Just cross your fingers that team won’t be the Mets.

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