Kodai Senga
Well, no one is whining over losing Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil. David Stearns has drastically and dramatically remade the New York Mets into possibly the best team in baseball.
They recently made huge additions with Bo Bichette and Louis Robert Jr. (two moves requiring overdue posts). Stearns then took a big swing trading for Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers.
People will say Peralta was needed because the Mets rotation was bad. They were very wrong. That said, Peralta is a very good pitcher, and when you can add a very good pitcher, you do it.
Peralta makes the Mets rotation better in so many ways.
He was 24th in the majors in innings pitched, and he’s made 30+ starts in three consecutive years. He was 17th in the majors in FIP and 15th in WAR. He was seventh in ERA and eighth in ERA+.
While you may uncomfortable calling him an ace, he’s a number one starter. It’s a fact. When there are 30 MLB teams are you’re top 25 and better in most categories, you’re a number one.
When a team adds a number one starter, it dramatically improves their outlook. Go back to 2000. Mike Hampton wasn’t an ace, but he was a true number one, and he was a big piece that helped the Mets win the pennant.
Peralta may not even be the Mets best starter. That is probably Nolan McLean. It’s hard to find a better 1-2 in baseball than Peralta-McLean . . . or McLean-Peralta.
Speaking of McLean, this makes him and the whole rotation better. At the moment, the Mets have six starters. This gives McLean an extra day of rest to help him get through his first full MLB season.
Kodai Senga has been better with an extra day of rest, and now, he gets it. David Peterson and Clay Holmes wore down from the increased workload, and now, they also get an extra day. Sean Manaea also gets a needed extra day.
They just didn’t get better by adding Peralta. They got better because the six man rotation makes the entire rotation better. They’re getting the best out of all their starters, which is very bad news for the National League.
Senga and Peterson have been All-Stars. Manaea was a top of the rotation pitcher for a team that went to the NLCS. McLean’s ceiling is as high as we’ve ever seen. They’re now all positioned to be at their best making them arguably the best rotation in baseball.
Keep in mind, Peralta was not the only pitcher the Mets obtained. They also received Myers, a pitcher who is not even arbitration eligible until after the 2027 season.
Myers has been a dominant reliever in his brief Major League career. If you go back to that 2024 Game 3, he absolutely dominated the Mets and appeared to be the game winning pitcher until Alonso did what he did.
Myers may still yet be a starter. He could be a future closer. He’s the Mets 2026 version of Seth Lugo. That’s a dangerous pitcher to have on your staff, and Myers is probably better.
Now, the Mets paid an understandably steep price for Peralta and Myers. In fact, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel explains the Mets trading Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat moved them from the top farm system to sixth best. Ironically, the Brewers moved from sixth to first.
There will be some who try to nitpick the prospects. We can point to Sproat’s struggles at Triple-A and his four Major League starts. We shouldn’t be doing that.
Sproat has a bright future ahead of him. After all, he made his MLB debut a year after being drafted. He could’ve been a big piece for the Mets in 2026.
Williams is a top prospect. He has a real future at second, short, or CF. He’s got speed and power in his bat. Losing him hurts, and it takes away insurance for the 35 year old Marcus Semien and injury prone players like Bichette and Robert.
The Mets can soon come to regret this trade, especially with Peralta being a year away from free agency. That makes this a real gamble and a worthwhile one at that.
Peralta improves the Mets rotation and improves the entire pitching staff. Myers makes the Mets deeper. If Myers is in the bullpen, this could be the best staff in the entire Major Leagues.
The Mets officially went all-in. They’ve built a team better than the 2025 Mets, and it could be the best this century. Time will tell. Whatever happens, it’ll be because the Mets made the very bold move to add Peralta to make the Mets the one team who can dethrone the Dodgers.
Let’s start with two premises. The first is you can never have enough pitching. The second is the New York Mets starting pitching completely fell apart in 2025.
With that out of the way, we need to assess what the Mets have and act accordingly. Remember, just because things were bad last year, it doesn’t mean they’re automatically bad the next.
Right off the bat, Nolan McLean looked like a future ace. He burst onto the scene like Jacob deGrom did in 2014, and the hope is McLean improves in year two in the same way deGrom did (no one is saying McLean will be the Cy Young version of deGrom . . . yet).
Behind McLean is Kodai Senga. When healthy, he’s been untouchable. Before Pete Alonso’s throw, he was 7-3 with a 1.47 ERA while averaging nearly six innings per start.
He just wasn’t right after he returned from injury. We don’t know what happened, but the fair assumption is he can get back to the pitcher who has pitched at a near ace level in his career.
It was a tale of two halves for David Peterson. He went from an All-Star to a mess. Lost in last season was the fact he pitched far more innings than he ever had as a Major Leaguer.
In 2024, Peterson pitched 121.0 innings, which was a then career high. Through 127.0 innings in 2025, he was 7-4 with a 2.83 ERA. With him being so good, and the other pitchers either injured or unable to go deep into games, Carlos Mendoza pushed him during this stretch.
After that 127.0 mark, Peterson was 2-2 with an 8.42 ERA averaging under five innings per start. It’s fair to assume there was some fatigue involved. Certainly, we should expect him to be fresh to start the year, and with closer attention to his workload, he should be able to get through the year better.
Sean Manaea was injured to start 2025, and he never got fully healthy, and he never built up his stamina. After 25 pitches, his K/9 went from 10.00 to 5.25.
He didn’t have a spring training, and he rushed back to help the team. He pitched through pain, and he faltered. Fortunately, he’s feeling healthy now.
Whether he gets back to being the top of rotation pitcher who led the Mets to the 2024 NLCS remains to be seen. Still, he should be able to give you five quality innings at the back end of the rotation.
Then, there is Clay Holmes in his second year as a starter. He actually held up well through his first 17 starts going 8-4 with a 2.99 ERA even if his 4.42 FIP indicated a regression was coming, which did come.
After those 17 starts, Holmes was 4-4 with a 4.23 ERA. He does deserve credit for a big time start his last outing of the year. All told, we should see more stamina from him in 2026.
Right there, the Mets have a viable five man rotation.
- McLean
- Senga
- Peterson
- Manaea
- Holmes
That’s now where the pitching stops. Next up is Brandon Sproat. There were some positives in his four starts with a 2.80 FIP. His first two starts with the Mets were very good. He should start the year in Triple-A, and we will likely see a better version of him when needed.
The same can be said for Jonah Tong. He had some flashes but mostly struggled. Still, he has the stuff and the highest ceiling of any of the three Mets prospects called up at the end of last year.
Speaking of Mets young pitching, we all forgot about Christian Scott. He’s fully recovered from Tommy John, and he appears ready to go for spring training. He showed flashes in 2023 while dealing with a torn UCL, and we can hope he can take a step forward in 2026.
At the moment, that puts the Mets Major League ready pitching depth at eight starters. That increases to nine with the team signing Carl Edwards Jr. to a minor league deal.
Edwards has had success in the majors out of the pen, and he’s recently transitioned to a starter. He did have some success as a starter in the Mexican Leagues last season making this an interesting gamble.
Top pitching prospect Will Watson will likely start the year with Double-A Binghamton. That puts him closer to making it to the majors. With a breakout season, he may very well force his way there.
Same goes for Jack Wenninger. He pitched better than Watson in Double-A and appears much closer to the majors. It’s very possible we see him in Queens next year.
We saw Jonathon Pintaro make his Major League debut next year, and he could be among the first called up next year. We could see a Zach Thornton or Jonathan Santucci pop in 2026.
Point is, there’s real pitching depth here without the Mets making one move to add a starter this offseason. It’s prudent and practical to add more pitching because as we saw in 2025, you can never have enough pitching.
That said, despite the narratives being pushed on Mets fans, they have starting pitching. They’re very well poised to be successful in 2026, and we should see the starting pitching be a driving force of the 2026 season.
The New York Mets made their first significant sogning of the offseason agreeing to a contract with former Seattle Mariner Jorge Polanco. This is a move met with derision from most, but it’s a move that makes sense for the Mets.
First and foremost, Polanco is a bat. Last year, he had a 132 wRC+. If you’re looking to replace Pete Alonso’s career 132 wRC+, the Mets have done that.
Yes, Alonso has historically been the more reliable bat, and he’s coming off a better year. That said, Polanco has been a 116 wRC+ or better in five of the last seven seasons while hitting in more difficult ballparks.
All told, Polanco can hit. This is a plus. Even better, Polanco can DH. That’s important for a Mets team who never adequately filled that role since the abomination of the universal DH.
There’s also been discussion of Polanco potentially learning to play first base. That’s led to many invoking Ron Washington’s famous line from Moneyball.
The irony here, of course, is Polanco is replacing the homegrown legend of Alonso like Scott Hatteberg was replacing Jason Giambi. The parallels continue as Alonso and Giambj were both truly terrible defensive first basemen.
However, when looking at the transition to first, Hatteberg isn’t the comp for Polanco. Hatteberg was a catcher, and Polanco was a middle infielder.
On that front, we have old friend Wilmer Flores. He was a poor middle infielder who has been good at first. He had a 7 OAA at the position.
There’s also Nomar Garciaparra. His injuries eventually forced him off shortstop and move to first. When healthy, Garciaparra proved to be quite a good first baseman.
Looking at players who need to move out of the middle infield, they do tend to be good first baseman. For Polanco, the floor is as low as it gets.
Alonso had a -9 OAA in consecutive seasons. His throws to first were comically bad and was a factor in Kodai Senga’s injury and second half collapse. Admittedly, the Mets will miss his scoop ability,l. Remember, at that, Alonso was the best in the game.
Taking everything into account, Polanco has a legitimate chance to be better than Alonso defensively. He could also be close offensively, which may result in Polanco being a better overall player.
This is not about replacing Alonso’s homers. It’s about replacing global production. There are many ways to get to a 132 wRC+.
And again, if he can’t play first, Polanco is the DH. Last season, the Mets DHs had a collective 102 wRC+. A position that was purely designed for offensive production was a league average bat. They ranked 20th in offensive production at the position.
No, Polanco was not the flashy name, but he might’ve just been the right name. Considering his offensive production and his reputation as a good clubhouse presence, he could be exactly what the Mets need.
In Game Three of the AL Wild Card Series, Cam Schlitter was electric, and he had the type of performance we will talk about for years to come. Over eight shutout innings, he struck out 12 Boston Red Sox while walking none to help the New York Yankees advance to the ALDS against the Toronto Blue Jays.
When the Yankees called up Schlitter, their team was in trouble. Not only did they need another starter, but they were falling apart. Their division lead turned into a 3.5 game deficit in the AL East.
There was open discussion about the Yankees missing the postseason entirely. Not only did the Yankees not miss the postseason, but they would tie the division lead (was a Wild Card on tiebreakers), and they would advance to the ALDS.‘
At the time the Yankees called up Schlitter, there was a call for the Mets to call-up one of their trio of top pitching prospects. On that same July 9 date, the Mets were in first place, and to be fair, they did seem to have corrected the ship.
However, things would change. In early August, they would lose eight in a row. From July 28 – August 15, they were 2-14. TWO AND FOURTEEN!
The Mets once division lead was a six game deficit. Because of the state of the National League, they still somehow held onto a Wild Card spot, and at the time, they even seemed secured of a wild card spot. The joke would ultimately be on us.
During this stretch, the Mets saw Kodai Senga unable to pitch through his earlier injuries. David Peterson and Clay Holmes were hitting a wall with their innings. Sean Manaea was incapable of pitching through his elbow injury.
During this stretch, we not only saw the aforementioned starters falter, but we also saw starts from Frankie Montas and Reed Garrett (acting as an opener for Montas). Both pitchers would go down with season ending injuries.
Finally, on August 16, Nolan McLean would get his first start of the season. The Mets had to drop out of the NL East race and put themselves in the mix for the Wild Card before the Mets reached for McLean.
During the course of the season, the Mets would also give starts to Paul Blackburn, Blade Tidwell, and a series of openers. Notably, Blackburn would be released on August 18, two days after McLean’s first start. Tidwell was moved at the trade deadline in the Tyler Rogers trade.
With young prospects, it is always a guessing game. McLean was ready from the moment he was called up, and he pitched like an ace. Jonah Tong was the most heralded of the players called up, and he faltered.
It’s difficult to know if McLean would have been ready a month or two earlier. To that point, Schlitter made five Triple-A starts this year before his call-up. McLean had made 13 starts.
As of July 9, McLean had made nine starts and two piggyback starts. He was 3-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 65 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. At that point, Schlitter had made five Triple-A starts going 2-1 with a 3.80 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 23.2 innings.
Again, this is not a science, but McLean was ahead of Schlitter in many ways, but the Yankees made the decision much quicker than the Mets. That was even with Schlitter getting shelled in his last Triple-A start.
Meanwhile, McLean made five more starts in Triple-A. During that timeframe, the Mets were 9-13. They lost two-out-of-three to the Cincinnati Reds. Those games were literally the reason why the Mets did not make the postseason.
McLean made five extra starts in Triple-A with four out of the five being very good. It was during this stretch that the Mets lost the Wild Card because that stretch is where they lost the tiebreakers.
The Yankees called up Schlitter. They claimed a Wild Card spot, and they won the Wild Card series behind a brilliant start by Schlitter. McLean was brilliant for the Mets, but because the Mets waited, they missed out on the postseason.
If you want to criticize Stearns, the Yankees gave you every reason why in Game 3 of the Wild Card series.
David Stearns’ New York Mets were worse in year two than they were in year one. They failed despite adding Juan Soto, which is just baffling.
Every fan and pundit is going to point to the starting pitching. Obviously, the starting pitching was a failure, but at some point, you have to actively say there’s only so much one man can do.
Right off the bat, Stearns made a massive mistake signing Frankie Montas instead of bringing back Luis Severino. Montas was a disaster, but he was also broken. It’s fair to question just how much of that was something that happened with the Mets, and whether the team physical missed something.
Looking at Severino, he was not good in 2025. He had a 1.0 WAR and a 92 ERA+. It’s possible he could have been better with the Mets, but based off what we saw, he was a below average pitcher whose strikeout rate dropped. Still, his 29 starts averaging 5.2 innings would have been more than welcome.
Aside from that mistake, Stearns had Kodai Senga and David Peterson returning to the rotation. He re-signed Sean Manaea, the ace from the 2024 staff. Right there, the Mets had as good as a top three as anyone in baseball.
Like with Montas, something either happened or was missed with Manaea. We looked at him as someone that could be an ace to someone battling through injury barely able to give you three quality innings. ‘
Senga was pitching at a Cy Young level. That was until Pete Alonso made one of his horrendous throws to first base leading to a Senga injury. After that throw, Senga went from a 1.47 ERA to a pitcher who had a 5.90 ERA over his last nine starts.
Peterson was great in the first half. He was an All-Star. Who knows what happened to him after July 20. After that start, he was 3-2 with a 6.34 ERA. The hope is it was the extra workload, but based on the missed injuries we saw with Montas and Manaea, a potential injury can’t be dismissed.
Joining that group in the rotation was Clay Holmes. Holmes had a good first year as a starter with a 114 ERA+. If starters didn’t drop like flies, he might’ve been able to be transitioned to the bullpen late in the season. Alas, that opportunity never arose.
Tylor Megill was quality starting pitching depth again. He had a 3.95 ERA over his 14 starts. Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John and will miss all of 2026.
Adding to the depth, Stearns signed Griffin Canning. He was a revelation of his 16 starts. At one point, he was on the outskirts of All-Star discussion, and he finished his season with a 107 ERA+ before he suffered a fluke ruptured ACL tear.
Look over that list again. In theory, the Opening Day rotation was supposed to be Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Montas, and Holmes. Behind them was Megill and Canning. That’s seven quality starters who should have been able to get you through the season.
Behind them, the Mets farm system did a great job developing Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong. McLean will enter next season as the ace, and Sproat should be in the conversation to join the Opening Day roster. Tong clearly needs more time in Triple-A.
Without making any trades, the Mets had 10 different starting pitchers that were capable of winning games. That is all even before we consider the Paul Blackburn disaster.
Sometimes you are just snakebitten. Obviously, there is a curse that is in the Citi Field bullpen. Either that, or the Mets need to address how they review physicals and keep pitchers healthy.
If Stearns goes into 2026 with this level of starting pitching depth, things will be better for the Mets next season. Stearns had a good philosophical approach to the staff, but he did not have the luck he had in 2025.
And before anyone starts, no, the Mets don’t need to go buck wild spending on free agent starters. The Opening Day rotation will have McLean, Peterson, Manaea, Senga, and Holmes. That is great. ‘
Behind that group, they will have Sproat and Tong ready to go. Possibly, Will Watson will be ready at some point in 2026. It would be nice to see if they can bring back Canning.
Think about this for a second. Even with the Montas blunder, Stearns did enough last offseason to build a formidable rotation for 2026. He did his job very well. He just now needs to figure out the health and possibly a way to better keep these pitchers healthy.
Being a New York Mets fan isn’t what it always was. The 1969 and 1986 Mets defined the organization as a team of what can be. Even the disappointments like 1973 and 1999 showed us that even in losses, the Mets organization is known for the potential miracles that can occur.
Maybe it started with Dwight Gooden missing the championship parade while sitting in a crack house. Maybe it was Kenny Rogers walking Andruw Jones with the bases loaded, or it could have been Todd Zeile’s ball getting stuck on the wall.
Frankly, it was probably the Wilpons getting sole ownership of the Mets organization. At some point, this Mets team went from miracles to Carlos Beltran striking out looking, the two collapses to close out Shea Stadium, and sadly, so much more.
In that vein, let’s try to rank out the Mets collapses. Just a fun little exercise for us Mets fans.
5. 2025 Collapse
This is the freshest, and it probably seems worse that it was. Actually, it is worse than it was, but this is being viewed through the prism of Mets history,
Unlike some of the other collapses, this was a a slow moving train. We all watched on with horror for months as this happened. This was the man getting run over by the roller in Austin Powers.
This collapse started in June with Griffin Canning went down. For months, this team was David Peterson and just four other guys in the rotation, and then Peterson lost it.
Yes, there was so much enthusiasm entering the season with the 2024 shocking run to the NLCS, and the Juan Soto signing. That all said this team was just snakebitten.
This team lost AJ Minter and Jesse Winker for the season. Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga were trying to pitch through injuries. The additions at this year’s trade deadline didn’t have the magic touch. Ultimately, that was it – the magic was gone.
Still on the last day of the season, they had a chance, and they again blew it. This was as bad as it gets, but not the worst it gets for the Mets.
4. 2007 Mets
Unlike most Mets collapses, the 2007 Mets were a case of the Philadelphia Phillies just took it from them. No doubt the Mets fell apart, but the Phillies played baseball at an insane clip instead of the Reds 14-11 September.
The issue with the 2007 is they just ran out of starting pitching. That final week of the season was David Williams and Phillip Humber start games. Billy Wagner was hurt, and Aaron Hellman was on whatever comes after fumes.
We didn’t realize it at the time, but Tom Glavine was pitching with a fork in his back. He was just done, and we saw the Miami Marlins take full advantage.
In reality, this collapse was sown in 2005 with Jeff Wilpon forcing Pedro Martinez to pitch. Also, like we saw with the 2025 Mets, this was a slow moving train as well.
The 2007 Mets slide began in June. From June 1 to the end of the season, they were 54-56. They were just an average team. It was just hard to see at the time, but we know it now. And, we knew it from what we would see the next season.
3. 1998 Mets
The 1997 Mets shocked baseball by somehow finishing with an 88-74 record. They attacked the offseason adding Al Leiter and Dennis Cook in addition to re-signing John Olerud.
They then made the big move by trading for Mike Piazza after Todd Hundley suffered an elbow injury. After some early issues with Piazza adjusting to New York and the booing, the Mets vaulted to postseason contention.
On September 16, they had a big win against the Houston Astros and found themselves a half-game up in the Wild Card standings. From there, they would finish the season going 2-6, losing their last five games.
Making it all the worse is they just needed to win one more game over that stretch. of course, the Mets would completely blow two games over that stretch.
Keep in mind, the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs would play in a winner-take-all Wild Card play-in game. The Cubs finished the season on a 4-6 stretch, and the Giants finished the season losing their last two games.
The play-in game was Steve Trachsel against Mark Gardner. The Mets couldn’t even win to enter this fray. If they won two, they advance to the postseason. It was all for naught as they choked it all away.
2. 2022 Mets
As written about here, the 2022 collapse was worse than the 2007 collapse.
The Mets had Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Chris Bassitt lined up in a series where the Mets had to win one game to win the division. Instead, they were swept. At the time, their 10.5 game blown lead was the third largest division lead blown in Major League history. It’s now fourth thanks to the 2025 Detroit Tigers.
Because of the collapse, instead of having a first round bye giving Scherzer, deGrom, and Bassitt much needed rest, they hosted the Wild Card Series, again with their pitching lined up perfectly.
Keep in mind the hubris of Mets fans. At the time, they were actively debating lining up deGrom for Game 3 so he could start the NLDS after the Mets swept the Padres. This Mets team was that good.
Instead, Scherzer pulled a Glavine in Game 1. After deGrom won Game 2, Bassitt was not good in Game 3 with the Mets managing just one hit against Joe Musgrove and his glistening ears.
In many ways, this team unnecessarily panicked. They forced Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez into a pennant race after purposefully not giving them cups of coffee earlier in the year. To add insult to injury, Buck Showalter was named Manager of the Year for his guiding the Mets from an easy division title to a team who completely fell apart.
1. 2008 Mets
This is not a popular choice, but it is assuredly the worst of all the collapses. Everything from that season was disturbing.
Rumors still circle about Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes purposefully quitting on Willie Randolph. Jerry Manuel worked behind the scenes with Jeff Wilpon to force Randolph’s firing. To make it all worse, the Mets did it to Randolph after the first game of a west coast trip began.
Oh, by the way, Randolph was the rare manager fired after a win. Instead, we got Manuel and his clown show. He was at least aided by a rejuvenated Delgado.
On August 27, the Mets led the NL East. Ironically, they opened September by sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers. After that sweep, they were ahead of the Phillies by 3.0 games, and they were ahead of the Brewers by two games in the loss column.
From there, the Mets would go 10-12.
On September 19, they led the NL East by a half-game. Over the final nine games of the season, that became a three game deficit. No, it wasn’t seven in 17, but it was inexplicable.
This team lost six of their final nine games. They were tied for the Wild Card entering the final week of the season with the Marlins (again). They would lose two out of three.
Unlike the prior year where it was Glavine who just didn’t have it, Beltran had a big homer to tie the game against the Marlins. Just when you thought he was changing the narrative from 2006, Manuel decides to go with Scott Schoeneweis, a reliever with a 7.00 September ERA that month.
It was classic Manuel. He was a bad manager making indefensible decisions.
Oh, and keep in mind, the Mets went out and got Johan Santana in the offseason. He was the ace missing in 2006, and he was the starter who could’ve prevented 2007 from happening. Apparently, nothing could stop Manuel, Jeff, and company.
Even if you want to believe 2007 was worse, consider this was the second year in a row only exacerbating everything. To make it even worse, this is the way they closed out Shea Stadium, the same place that saw the 1969 Mets, the ball go through Bill Buckner’s legs, Robin Ventura’s Grand Slam Single, and Mike Piazza’s homer after 9/11.
This loss was the cumulation of everything that happened after Beltran’s strikeout. After this, we had an awkward ceremony, and the team falling apart with the Wilpons getting caught up with the Madoff scandal.
The 2008 collapse was as bad as it gets. Sadly, being Mets fans, we have plenty of years from which to debate.
The New York Mets have a very real starting pitching problem. Ironically, this is happening just as their projected opening day starting rotation is all healthy and together.
We’ve all seen the graphics on SNY. David Peterson is the only starter going 6+ innings. Worse yet, aside from him the other starters have been averaging 4.2 innings per start.
It’s embarrassing, and it probably helped lead to the rash of reliever injuries we’ve seen this season.
Speaking of relievers, Clay Holmes seems to be on fumes. He’s never thrown more than 70 innings in a season. He passed that mark on June 7.
He’s giving five innings now but to varying degrees of success. At the moment, he probably needs more off days between starts, or maybe the Mets should be moving him to the bullpen to prepare for the postseason.
The problem with that plan is Frankie Montas. Montas has been brutal averaging under five innings per start with a 6.68 ERA. He’s flat out giving the Mets no chance to win, and worse yet, he’s exhausting the bullpen for the games they actually could win.
Montas needs to move out of the rotation now. The innings aren’t there and need to come from somewhere.
Everyone is hoping Sean Manae can provide those innings. Right now, he is still working his way back from offseason injury and an elbow injury that appeared during his rehab stint. Last year, he averaged 6+ innings per start in the second half.
Notably, Manae hasn’t thrown more than five innings or 86 pitches in a game. As he continues to get stretched out, that should be two reliable starters
Kodai Senga is the ace, but he’s slipped of late. Over his last four starts, he’s averaging 4.0 innings per start with a 6.19 ERA. Effectively speaking, he’s become Montas.
We do know he’s better with more rest. The Mets need to find it for him, and for Holmes if he is to stay in the rotation.
If and when Paul Blackburn and Tylor Megill are ready to return from injury, they could hop into the rotation. Blackburn is much closer and could rejoin the rotation this week. That said, they are both the five and fly starters that have hampered this Mets bullpen.
The answer to the Mets issues is likely one of Brandon Sproat or Nolan McLean.
Sproat has been great of late, and his recent run seemed to begin when he was working with Francisco Álvarez during Alvarez’s demotion. Over his last six starts, he’s averaging 5+ innings per start. He’s allowed just two earned over his last 33.0 innings while striking out 39.
McLean isn’t on the same hot streak as Sproat, but he’s the more polished pitcher. He’s also giving more innings averaging nearly six innings per start. With Syracuse, he has a 3.01 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, and a 9.6 K/9.
David Stearns has said he’s not calling up any prospect starting pitcher for a spot start. Instead, he will only call them up to join the rotation. The Mets have a definite need for them, and the Mets are running out of other solutions.
Sprout and McLean need to be in the rotation now. It will give more rest to Senga, Manae, Peterson, and Holmes to help their effectiveness. It will get Montas out of the rotation and into the bullpen where he can work on things.
Mostly, it can help the Mets find their fourth starter for the postseason. Of course, they can help them get there too.
By having both in the rotation, the Mets can see which one fares better and is better ready to face Major League batters. They can get more innings to help the bullpen, get more rest for the other starters, win the division, and hopefully win a World Series.
The need has arrived. The Mets can ill afford to wait any longer. Sproat and McLean must be called up now.
On June 4, Francisco Lindor was hitting .279/.353/.490, and the Mets were 39-23. In that game, Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin hit Lindor in the foot. As a result, Lindor broke his right foot.
After Lindor broke his toe, he got a day off. The Mets did lose to the Dodgers, and they followed that with a sweep of the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.
Over that stretch, Lindor wasn’t great. Part of the reason is he pushed it. In his first start, he was 3-for-5 while stealing two bases.
Maybe it was pride. Maybe it was proving to Carlos Mendoza he was good to go. Whatever the case, he pushed it, and he hasn’t been good since. Neither have the Mets.
Since that 3-for-5 game, Lindor is hitting .163/.218/.288 with four doubles and two homers. He hasn’t attempted another stolen base.
Over that stretch, the Mets are 7-14 with embarrassing sweeps to the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates. They went from 4.5 games up in the division to 1.5 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies.
What is all the more frustrating is this is happening while Juan Soto has been a monster. He arguably had the greatest offensive month in Mets history, and it still couldn’t prevent the annual June Swoon.
Now, this isn’t all Lindor. The rotation is falling apart. In this month alone Kodai Senga, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill went down, and Sean Manaea had a setback in his rehab.
That has led to more starts/appearances for Paul Blackburn and Blade Tidwell. It’s exhausting the bullpen, and they’re faltering.
Mark Vientos is working his way back, and Francisco Álvarez is trying to rediscover himself in Triple-A. There are issues top to bottom.
We can list the excuses and reasons. Fact is all of these excuses were present last year. Things were far worse. Much of that changed when Lindor turned his season around and became a legit MVP candidate.
The Mets are their best when Lindor is at his best. Problem is Lindor is wounded and struggling. So are the Mets.
It’s a delicate balance, but the Mets need Lindor to be Lindor now. Once he gets going, a lot of the ills should go by the wayside. Hopefully, it’s just a matter of days and not months because the Mets can’t afford another month like June.
By all accounts, Dom Hamel has struggled since his promotion to Triple-A Syracuse last season. This season, it got to the point where Hamel was moved out of the rotation.
There are a number of reasons. His low 90s fastball doesn’t play as well as a starter in the upper limits of the minors. He’s become more of a guy living on the edges than attacking the strike zone. The ensuing walks get you in trouble.
That said, Hamel still does a lot right. He has a high spin sweeper and a change that generates a number of swings and misses. He has a cutter he either needs to complete refine or scrap. He still has a good 12-6 curve.
He’s been far more effective against right-handed batters limiting them to a .222/.276/.284 batting line. He’s struggles against left-handed batters with them hitting .303/.389/.487 against him.
Part of that is he has a plan of attack against right-handed batters. He’s a fastball-sweeper pitcher against them. Against left-handed batters, he hasn’t truly decided on the change or curve as the main secondary pitch.
In the end, he’s not a starter for a few reasons. He’s a two pitch pitcher against right-handed batters. Left-handed batters are feasting on him. He lacks a true third pitch.
However, there are numbers that portend success at the next level.
Hamel strikes out over a batter per inning (10.19 K/9). He has a 43.8 GB%. In his minor league career, his FIP has typically been better than his ERA. There are just some pitchers who perform better at the Major League level, and Hamel just may be one of those guys.
This is a good time to try it too.
Hamel has been pitching well out of the pen. Over his last four appearances, he has struck out 10 over nine innings with a 2.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP.
Being in the bullpen allows him to scrap some pitches and increase some velocity. Working with Jeremy Hefner can get him to another level. In some ways, Hamel can be the effective multiple inning reliever Hefner has helped Jose Butto become.
As we well know, the Mets need multiple inning relievers with their pitching staff being decimated by injuries. It’s not just their being without Sean Manae, Kodai Senga, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill in the rotation and AJ Minter in the bullpen.
There’s the trickle down effect to the bullpen. They’re overtaxed. We are seeing Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazibán wear down and struggle.
Hamel could potentially provide multiple innings to take the burden away from the Mets top relievers. He can eat innings when pitchers like Blade Tidwell falter, or Clay Holmes continues to manage his innings.
If it fails, it fails. Much of what the Mets are doing now is failing. It’s worth a gamble on a multi-inning reliever with a high strikeout and spin rate.
This could be Butto. It could be more of the same. It’s worth a shot.
With the New York Mets pursuing Roki Sasaki, the team was indicating they’re looking towards a six man rotation. They’re also looking for starting pitching depth.
While there are internal options like Griffin Canning and Paul Blackburn, the Mets could turn to the free agent market. One name that stands out there is former Met Max Scherzer.
Scherzer, 40, is not the prime target he was when the Mets signed him back in 2021. Rather, he’s a future Hall of Famer looking for one last chance to win, one last chance for glory before he retires.
The Mets could present that. However, the question is what could Scherzer present to the Mets at this stage of his career.
For starters, Scherzer provides a veteran presence and competitive edge. As detailed by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Scherzer served as a mentor to the younger Mets pitchers, and the Mets thrived in 2022 as a result.
In many ways, Scherzer acted as an extension of Jeremy Hefner. There’s real value there as the Mets look to make Frankie Montas this year’s version of Luis Severino. They’re also trying to reclimate Canning, and hopefully, we will soon see Brandon Sproat.
This is all well and good, but this is also why the Mets have Hefner. It’s also why Steve Cohen has invested so much money in analytics. It doesn’t matter at all if Scherzer is done.
Fortunately, it appears Scherzer has something left in the tank. In an injury riddled season, he had a 101 ERA+, 4.18 FIP, and an 8.3 K/9. There are numbers there to justify him as a fifth starter.
Looking at his Baseball Savant page, Scherzer can still miss bats. It’s not at the same rate as his prime or even two years ago. Fortunately, even when opposing batters make contact, he’s limiting the damage.
Yes, he’s injury prone now. It may sound odd to say, but that does somewhat help the Mets. It would give a chance for a Canning or Sproat to prove themselves.
In essence, Scherzer buys the Mets time. It’s time for the younger starters. It’s time for Montas to figure it out. It’s time between starts for Kodai Senga.
Scherzer pitched well for the Mets when his body let him. He was the co-ace they needed. Now, they need a placeholder and veteran staff leader. Once again, he’s a perfect fit.