Juan Soto
The commentary when the New York Mets signed Francisco Lindor was he was grossly overpaid. That was a narrative screamed all over the airwaves, and it was at its most intense during Lindor’s early season slump.
Of course, the narrative was always false, and as usual, it had a twinge of #lolMets to it. With his near MVP season leading the Mets to the NLCS, Lindor shut that narrative up . . . for now.
Enter Juan Soto.
Soto received a MLB record 15 year $765 million contract. That carries a $51 million AAV. It’s a staggering number, and when he’s paid more than Shohei Ohtani, you’re allowed to question the disparity.
We can point out Soto is four years younger and just now entering his prime years. We can discuss Soto’s durability against Ohtani’s injury history. There’s more to contemplate, but it’s all a pointless exercise.
Determining whether or not Soto is overpaid is directly tied to the value he brings the team.
Each offseason had its own trends, but over the past six seasons, teams have paid roughly $7.6 million per 1 WAR. As a result, for Soto to be worth the deal, he would have to produce a 6.7 WAR per season.
On that note, Soto is coming off a season with a 7.9 WAR. Two of his past four seasons have exceeded 7.0 WAR. If Soto produces at this level during the peak years of his deal, he’s exceeding the AAV paid to him.
Of course, the $7.6 million is an average. We have twice seen the value surpass $9 million. At a $9 million valuation, Soto would only need to average a 5.7 WAR to be worth the deal.
Of course, this presumes WAR/$ doesn’t increase with increased revenues in baseball. As the WAR/$ increases, Soto’s production need not be at the 5-7 WAR value to be worth the deal.
Of course, the Mets signed him to be exactly that. As seen with pure hitters like Yordan Alvarez, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas a hitter of Soto’s caliber can absolute produce that value.
Yes, this presupposes Soto will hit like a Hall of Famer. That’s what he’s done in his career, and there is zero expectation he will suddenly cease being that.
Look, the Mets signed Ted Williams. With apologies to Darryl Strawberry, the Mets finally landed the next Ted Williams.
There’s knowledge that comes with being that level of a hitter. As Soto discussed in his press conference, his discussions with Aaron Judge made both better.
Notably, it was the best years of Soto’s and Judge’s careers. It’s a relationship Soto can now have with Lindor. Moreover, think of the impact Soto can have on Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos.
There’s also the message adding a player like Soto sends to the rest of the league. Look at the Mets back at Pedro Martinez in the 2004 offseason. It paved the way for Carlos Beltran and eventually Billy Wagner.
Was Pedro worth his contract? Well, partially thanks to Jeff Wilson, certainly not. However, it was a move which made the Mets relevant, and it led to helping the Mets acquire players which would nearly lead to a pennant.
The Mets arguably already had that with Lindor. However, acquiring Soto pushes things even further. It puts the team on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers and their three MVPs.
The Mets are at a completely different level now. They haven’t been here since the 1980s. The Mets are now set to have a decade plus run as a World Series contender.
Lindor brought relevance. Soto takes the Mets to a new level entirely. Yes, Soto’s production will mostly likely be worth $51 million per year. The extra intangibles he brings means he will assuredly be worth every single last penny of the deal.
Let’s be honest for a moment. When Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets from the Wilpons, he never said he was going to have the highest payroll in baseball.
That was just our assumption. Actually, it was our prayers. We felt like we deserved it after the Wilpons austerity.
What Cohen did say was he planned to emulate the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s officially done that. He just had to bide his time.
Where the Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman, the Mets have David Stearns. Where the Dodgers traded and extended Mookie Betts, the Mets did that with Francisco Lindor.
Now, where the Dodgers got Shohei Ohtani, the Mets landed Juan Soto.
The Dodgers got to be THE destination. Look, Ohtani was only considering the Dodgers. We can argue whether he coordinated with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Looking back, Yamamoto seemed like the test of Cohen’s power. The Mets were all-in on him and gave him the biggest offer. To be fair, the Dodgers matched the Mets offer.
It also isn’t like players had spurned the Mets. Both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander eagerly joined the Mets after receiving big contracts.
People can laugh at those deals all they want, but it worked out well for the Mets. Scherzer helped lead the Mets to the postseason. Moreover, the Mets have already benefitted from the trades with Luisangel Acuña being an important contributor down the stretch in 2025.
The Mets are being built the way you build a team that will be good and relevant for the next decade and beyond.
This plan really started in 2023 when Stearns took the helm. The decision to sit back and see what was here actually paid massive dividends.
Pitchers want to come here now with Sean Manae’s career reaching new heights, Luis Severino saving his career. Laugh at Grimace all you want, but that, the OMG, and the winning (mostly the winning) make the team something that made players want to be a Met.
This isn’t about poaching Soto from the New York Yankees. It’s not a big brother-little brother thing. It’s about making the Mets the best team in New York and perhaps all of baseball.
As Jeff Passan of ESPN said, “I think Juan Soto looked at the New York Mets’ future … and believed that the Mets have a better future than Yankees.”
Yes, the Mets have Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. They also have budding stars in Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos. Just imagine for a second the stratosphere Soto and his hitting genius can help take Alvarez and Vientos.
The Mets are set to win in 2025 because of what was already at Citi Field. This is an NLCS team who just added Soto.
Maybe the Mets win in 2025. Maybe they don’t. The National League is still a gauntlet with the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Padres.
Still, the Mets have one of the best teams in baseball with high level talent from the minors on the way. This team is special and will be a special one for years to come.
For those of you who don’t remember the 1980s, even with them winning just once, the Mets were THE team. They’re on the path to being that again.
That started with Cohen. It continues with Soto. Promises are being fulfilled, and our wildest dreams are coming true.