Juan Soto
In the end, the New York Mets never walked away from Pete Alonso. They offered him one of two deals allowing Alonso to pick one.
Rather than take the three year $71 million deal, Alonso chose the two year $54 million deal with an opt out after the first year.
Looking at it, it’s effectively a one year deal unless Alonso completely craters. Alonso gets $30 million the first year, and he can repeat this process again.
We know Alonso already bet on himself once and lost badly. That seven year $158 deal is gone forever. Maybe if he’s great this year, he could beat it.
Here’s the thing, the 2025 season will likely be it for the Mets and Alonso.
We already know the Mets were actively pursuing Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. on the trade market. They’ve always been pursuing him.
They almost signed him in international free agency long ago, and instead settled for his cousin Gregory Guerrero. During the last IFA, they signed his half-brother.
The worst kept secret in baseball is the Mets will be all out for Guerrero like they were for Juan Soto this offseason. It’s the right decision for the Mets as Guerrero is younger and better than Alonso.
With Guerrero not available for now, the Mets opted for Alonso. It was either him or move Mark Vientos to first so they could pursue Alex Bregman. That plan never materialized, and in reality, was not seriously pursued.
The Mets are giving Alonso the chance to surpass Darryl Strawberry for the team’s all-time HR record. With Alonso behind by 26, he should move to the franchise lead.
Mostly, the Mets are giving Alonso the chance to win the World Series. This should be the best Mets team of his career. If he repeats his postseason heroics, the Mets just might win in 2025.
The Mets are also allowing Alonso to rebuild his value with a safety net. They’re giving him a large pay raise in 2025 to allow him to save some face.
Mostly, the Mets sent a message about the type of organization this is. They could’ve easily walked away and left Alonso in a lurch. Instead, they showed their loyalty and willingness to take care of their own. That probably goes a long way in the future as they pursue other free agents.
Ultimately, the 2025 season should be the last one for Alonso and the Mets. Hopefully, Alonso has a better contract year this time. More than that, let’s hope he leaves with a World Series.
This just may be me, but for the life of me, I’ve never understood the obsession with the 1987 New York Mets road jerseys. It lasted one year, and it probably should’ve remained that way.
First of all, that 1987 season was as disappointing as any in Mets history. It started with the Dwight Gooden steroid suspension and didn’t get much better from there.
The defending World Series champions that we were hoping were on the precipice of a dynasty fell apart. Basically every starter was injured at some point, and every returning starter not named Darryl Strawberry had a down year.
It’s a matter of personal taste, but they also aren’t as aesthetically pleasing as the traditional Tiffany font road jerseys. Yet, there are some ardent fans of that jersey, and now, we see some form of a return to those jerseys.
Honestly, these are better with the blue than the gray. Still, it’s a little too monotone. Maybe if the New York was all orange, they’d be better, but maybe not.
The old blue alternates had the gray lettering with the orange outline, and those were very well received. Maybe that would’ve been better.
Then again, I’m a dad. I’m not who the Mets are targeting with these even if it’s a callback to my youth when I watched the Mets.
To that point, my kids LOVE them. They think they’re awesome. I’ve already received requests for a Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor one.
Who am I kidding? They want both just like they wanted one of every Met for the city connect jerseys. To that end, the jerseys are a MASSIVE success.
The Mets want to create jerseys people want to go out and buy. If my kids love them, then I’m probably going to buy them one eventually.
So, while I’m not a big fan, it doesn’t matter. I’m buying two. Maybe three when the kids want me to have one to match them.
Go back to October 3, 2024. It’s a deciding Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series. No one knew what was going to happen, but New York Mets fans were convinced Pete Alonso would not be a factor in the game.
Check that. Mets fans wouldn’t have been surprised by a big error or strikeout. We just didn’t think it’d be a big hit. Fortunately, Alonso proved us wrong.
Up until that point, Mets fans were very okay with Alonso walking in free agency, and they were increasingly vocal about it. It’s not thar anyone truly wanted Alonso gone. It’s just that it seemed to be the right time.
As luck would have it, Alonso would have a good postseason. He’d hit three more homers and was one of the driving forces of the Mets surprising run.
Behind that run was a lackluster 2024 season. He had a career low in homers, RBI, SLG, OPS+, and WAR for a full 162 game season. He also posted the second most strikeouts in his career.
The barrel rates and exit velocities are trending in the wrong direction. He had a career worst OAA. He’s become a worse base runner.
This wasn’t just the pressures of a contract year or wanting to do better than the Mets extension offer. This is a negative trend with Alonso having turned 30.
The calls to bring Alonso back started with a fervor when Juan Soto was signed. Somehow people believe Alonso, and only Alonso, can protect Soto in the lineup.
Put that nonsense aside. The question is what makes the most sense.
Short term, it’s worth keeping Alonso. Let’s see if the decline is a blip. It’s worth the investment. After all, Alonso plays everyday and works tirelessly to improve as a player.
Long term? That just seems like it’s a risk not worth taking.
Taking the fan perspective, this may be the exact right time for Alonso to leave. No, fans don’t want him to leave. Rather, it’s the right time.
No one. Absolutely no one wants to ever be in a position to boo Alonso or beg the Mets to release him. Alonso has been special to fans, and to be put in that position would be cruel.
That is the exact risk in giving Alonso a big deal. The risk is the decline is real, and the fans will want him gone.
If Alonso leaves today, everyone will have fond memories of Alonso. The recording setting rookie season. The Home Run Derbies. LFGM. The homer off Devin Williams.
It would be a fond farewell instead of a good riddance. To a certain extent, it’s what’s best for both sides. It may just be time for Alonso to leave even if it’s impossible to imagine Alonso in another uniform.
The commentary when the New York Mets signed Francisco Lindor was he was grossly overpaid. That was a narrative screamed all over the airwaves, and it was at its most intense during Lindor’s early season slump.
Of course, the narrative was always false, and as usual, it had a twinge of #lolMets to it. With his near MVP season leading the Mets to the NLCS, Lindor shut that narrative up . . . for now.
Enter Juan Soto.
Soto received a MLB record 15 year $765 million contract. That carries a $51 million AAV. It’s a staggering number, and when he’s paid more than Shohei Ohtani, you’re allowed to question the disparity.
We can point out Soto is four years younger and just now entering his prime years. We can discuss Soto’s durability against Ohtani’s injury history. There’s more to contemplate, but it’s all a pointless exercise.
Determining whether or not Soto is overpaid is directly tied to the value he brings the team.
Each offseason had its own trends, but over the past six seasons, teams have paid roughly $7.6 million per 1 WAR. As a result, for Soto to be worth the deal, he would have to produce a 6.7 WAR per season.
On that note, Soto is coming off a season with a 7.9 WAR. Two of his past four seasons have exceeded 7.0 WAR. If Soto produces at this level during the peak years of his deal, he’s exceeding the AAV paid to him.
Of course, the $7.6 million is an average. We have twice seen the value surpass $9 million. At a $9 million valuation, Soto would only need to average a 5.7 WAR to be worth the deal.
Of course, this presumes WAR/$ doesn’t increase with increased revenues in baseball. As the WAR/$ increases, Soto’s production need not be at the 5-7 WAR value to be worth the deal.
Of course, the Mets signed him to be exactly that. As seen with pure hitters like Yordan Alvarez, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas a hitter of Soto’s caliber can absolute produce that value.
Yes, this presupposes Soto will hit like a Hall of Famer. That’s what he’s done in his career, and there is zero expectation he will suddenly cease being that.
Look, the Mets signed Ted Williams. With apologies to Darryl Strawberry, the Mets finally landed the next Ted Williams.
There’s knowledge that comes with being that level of a hitter. As Soto discussed in his press conference, his discussions with Aaron Judge made both better.
Notably, it was the best years of Soto’s and Judge’s careers. It’s a relationship Soto can now have with Lindor. Moreover, think of the impact Soto can have on Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos.
There’s also the message adding a player like Soto sends to the rest of the league. Look at the Mets back at Pedro Martinez in the 2004 offseason. It paved the way for Carlos Beltran and eventually Billy Wagner.
Was Pedro worth his contract? Well, partially thanks to Jeff Wilson, certainly not. However, it was a move which made the Mets relevant, and it led to helping the Mets acquire players which would nearly lead to a pennant.
The Mets arguably already had that with Lindor. However, acquiring Soto pushes things even further. It puts the team on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers and their three MVPs.
The Mets are at a completely different level now. They haven’t been here since the 1980s. The Mets are now set to have a decade plus run as a World Series contender.
Lindor brought relevance. Soto takes the Mets to a new level entirely. Yes, Soto’s production will mostly likely be worth $51 million per year. The extra intangibles he brings means he will assuredly be worth every single last penny of the deal.
Let’s be honest for a moment. When Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets from the Wilpons, he never said he was going to have the highest payroll in baseball.
That was just our assumption. Actually, it was our prayers. We felt like we deserved it after the Wilpons austerity.
What Cohen did say was he planned to emulate the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s officially done that. He just had to bide his time.
Where the Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman, the Mets have David Stearns. Where the Dodgers traded and extended Mookie Betts, the Mets did that with Francisco Lindor.
Now, where the Dodgers got Shohei Ohtani, the Mets landed Juan Soto.
The Dodgers got to be THE destination. Look, Ohtani was only considering the Dodgers. We can argue whether he coordinated with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Looking back, Yamamoto seemed like the test of Cohen’s power. The Mets were all-in on him and gave him the biggest offer. To be fair, the Dodgers matched the Mets offer.
It also isn’t like players had spurned the Mets. Both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander eagerly joined the Mets after receiving big contracts.
People can laugh at those deals all they want, but it worked out well for the Mets. Scherzer helped lead the Mets to the postseason. Moreover, the Mets have already benefitted from the trades with Luisangel Acuña being an important contributor down the stretch in 2025.
The Mets are being built the way you build a team that will be good and relevant for the next decade and beyond.
This plan really started in 2023 when Stearns took the helm. The decision to sit back and see what was here actually paid massive dividends.
Pitchers want to come here now with Sean Manae’s career reaching new heights, Luis Severino saving his career. Laugh at Grimace all you want, but that, the OMG, and the winning (mostly the winning) make the team something that made players want to be a Met.
This isn’t about poaching Soto from the New York Yankees. It’s not a big brother-little brother thing. It’s about making the Mets the best team in New York and perhaps all of baseball.
As Jeff Passan of ESPN said, “I think Juan Soto looked at the New York Mets’ future … and believed that the Mets have a better future than Yankees.”
Yes, the Mets have Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. They also have budding stars in Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos. Just imagine for a second the stratosphere Soto and his hitting genius can help take Alvarez and Vientos.
The Mets are set to win in 2025 because of what was already at Citi Field. This is an NLCS team who just added Soto.
Maybe the Mets win in 2025. Maybe they don’t. The National League is still a gauntlet with the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Padres.
Still, the Mets have one of the best teams in baseball with high level talent from the minors on the way. This team is special and will be a special one for years to come.
For those of you who don’t remember the 1980s, even with them winning just once, the Mets were THE team. They’re on the path to being that again.
That started with Cohen. It continues with Soto. Promises are being fulfilled, and our wildest dreams are coming true.