Josh Smoker
Last night might’ve been the breaking point for Travis d’Arnaud. The Mets had a runner in scoring position with two outs in the bottom of the eighth as the Mets trailed the Braves 5-4. In what was his biggest at bat of the season, d’Arnaud weakly grounded out to shortstop to end the inning and the rally. This could have been the culmination in what has been a lost season for d’Arnaud.
After hitting .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI last year, this was supposed to be the year d’Arnaud took off. It hasn’t happened. Whether it was losing catching and bench coach Bob Geren to the Dodgers, his rotator cuff injury, his irregular playing time, or just bad mechanics at the plate, this hasn’t been his year. He hasn’t been hitting for power. Overall, he is hitting .246/.300/.321 with only four homers and 14 RBI. In fact, d’Arnaud hasn’t had an RBI since August 26th. He hasn’t homered since August 2nd. In 11 games this month, he is hitting .200/.282/.200 with no extra base hits or RBI. At this point, with the Wild Card on the line, the Mets can ill afford to play him.
The question then become is not d’Arnaud, then who? People will mostly point to Rene Rivera.
Fact is, if the Mets are dissatisfied with d’Arnaud, they shouldn’t want Rivera either. Like d’Arnaud, Rivera has also played 11 games in September. In those games, he is hitting .174/.269/.174. Similarly, he has no extra base hits or RBI. Fact is, he’s been even more of a blackhole offensively than d’Arnaud. That should be no surprise given the fact that he’s a career .213/.263/.332 hitter. If you want Rivera to continue to be Noah Syndergaard‘s personal catcher, that’s one thing. However, Rivera cannot play everyday with those offensive numbers.
That leaves the Mets with only one other option – Kevin Plawecki.
From an offensive standpoint, there are many negative things you can say about Plawecki. Before being sent down to AAA, he was hitting .194/.301/.258 with five doubles, one homer, and 10 RBI. He is hitting .231 with runners in scoring position and .212 with men on base. In his entire major league career, he is a .208/.285/.281 hitter with four homers and 31 RBI. He’s been a dead pull hitter that hits for no power. Those are the numbers that got him sent down to AAA.
However, in AAA, he seemed to regain some of the promise he had as a good offensive catcher. In 55 AAA games, Plawecki hit .300/.384/.484 with 11 doubles, eight homers, and 40 RBI. Given the fact that the Pacific Coast League is a hitter’s league, these numers are not outstanding. However, they are a step in the right direction. Heading in the right direction is a lot more than you can say for Plawecki than you can for d’Arnaud and Rivera.
In his time with the Mets, one thing we have seen with Plawecki is he is a good defensive catcher and pitch framer. With his time in AAA, he has also had the opportunity to catch Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, and Josh Smoker this year. With that in mind, he is already up to speed on what they throw and how they get batters out. This means the only real issue with Plawecki is whether he will hit like the Mets once thought he would.
Even if Plawecki hits at the same .208 clip he has in his entire major league career, he will be a better offensive option than d’Arnaud and Rivera have been this month. With that in mind, there is really no downside to giving Plawecki another shot.
Last night was a night of the narrowest of margins. The Mets entered the night with a one game lead in the Wild Card race. They were also facing Julio Teheran who absolutely owns the Mets. Once the Mets got a 1-0 lead, they needed to do everything they could do to protect that lead.
Terry Collins didn’t.
Robert Gsellman entered the sixth inning having thrown 75 pitches. In his young career, opposing batters are hitting .429/.500/.500 off Gsellman when he crosses the 75 pitch mark. Better yet, opposing batters are hitting .368/.455/.421 off of him the third time through the order. After Gsellman retired Teheran to start the inning, the Braves hitters were getting a third look at him.
Ender Inciarte and Adonis Garcia hit back-to-back singles. Gsellman was losing it, and Mets killer Freddie Freeman was stepping to the plate. It was at this point anyone would’ve gone to the bullpen for the lefty. However, Collins didn’t do that as HE HAD NO ONE WARMING UP!
It was the right spot for Josh Smoker. Freeman doesn’t hit sliders or splitters well, and he has a tendency to swing and miss at fastballs. Furthermore, Smoker entered the night striking out 15.3 batters per nine. Instead, Collins stuck with Gsellman, who would walk Freeman to load the bases.
That lead to Matt Kemp hitting a ball that should’ve been caught by either Curtis Granderson, or even better, Jay Bruce. Instead, it dropped in for an RBI “single.” At this point, Collins went to Smoker to pitch to Nick Markakis with the bases loaded. It was two batters too late.
Smoker here was the right spot even if he wound up walking Markakis to give the Braves a 2-1 lead.
Honorable mention for Collin’s Decision of the Game should also go to him leaving Jerry Blevins out to dry.
Fernando Salas had come on to get the last two outs of the sixth, and he started the seventh inning. After he allowed a leadoff single to Dansby Swanson, and Teheran failed to get the bunt down, Collins went to Blevins to pitch to Ender Inciarte. Blevins didn’t get the job done as he allowed Inciarte to get on with a single. Collins stuck with Blevins to pitch to Adonis Garcia. Even with Garcia killing lefties this year while being unable to hit righties, the move was understandable with Freddie Freeman on deck.
After Garcia homered to make it a 5-1 game and Freeman hit a double to deep center, you really had to question why Blevins was still in the game. The move to intentionally walk Kemp was certainly questionable. Still, Blevins settled down enough to strike out Nick Markakis for the second out. At that point, Collins went with Rafael Montero of all people to get the Mets out of the inning.
He went with Montero despite how hard he’s been hit this year and his troubles throwing strikes. It was just inviting further disaster and for the Braves to put the game completely out of reach. The fact that it wound up working isn’t proof it was the right move. Rather, it was proof that Collins got lucky.
At that point too, you have to question why Montero wasn’t double-switched into the game. Montero is now the Mets version of the white flag. If you’re bringing him in, you might as well let him close the game out and save your bullpen. The perfect opportunity was there too with Jay Bruce making the last out of the sixth inning. The move to Montero for one-third of an inning made no sense whatsoever. It made less sense when you consider Collins went to Jim Henderson in the next inning.
Overall, Collins had yet another bad game. Again, he was not prepared for the moment, and it wound up costing the Mets.
Other than Asdrubal Cabrera, who was 3-3 with two walks and an RBI double, everyone involved with the Mets had a hand in this putrid loss. That’s the way it is for a team that is 1-7 with RISP for the first seven innings.
Robert Gsellman cruised through five innings before struggling in the sixth. He loaded the bases with one out. To his credit, he did get Matt Kemp to hit a medium depth fly ball to right center that should’ve been caught.
It wasn’t. It fell between Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce. The conversation probably went like this:
- Granderson: “Jay, that’s yours. I have no arm.”
- Bruce: “Sure, I got it.”
- [Ball Drops]
- Granderson: “I told you it was yours!”
- Bruce: “I know, but in case you haven’t noticed, I suck as a Met.”
By the way, yes, Terry Collins played Bruce over Michael Conforto despite: (1) Bruce being terrible; (2) Conforto playing well the past two nights; and (3) Playing Bruce over Conforto violates the “You hit you play” mantra. And, yes, Collins should’ve pulled Gsellman before it got to this point.
Josh Smoker relieved Gsellman, and he got squeezed on a 2-2 pitch:
Call hurts #Mets
Ball 3 should be strike 3
Top 6 Smoker vs Markakis
10% call same
3.4in from edge pic.twitter.com/T1PNamHcTO— Mets Strike Zone (@MetsUmp) September 21, 2016
He then walked Nick Markakis on the 3-2 pitch giving the Braves a 2-1 lead.
That lead grew to 5-1 when Collins unnecessarily stayed with Jerry Blevins. Dansby Swanson led off the seventh with a single off Fernando Salas. After Julio Teheran failed to bunt him over, Collins went to Blevins to face Ender Inciarte.
Inciarte singled, and then the RIGHT hand hitting Adonis Garcia hit a three run homer. Of course, Collins could’ve stuck with Salas, but no, he went to his second lefty there.
The Braves continued to tee off Blevins. It got so bad Rafael Montero of all people had to bail him out of out the two on two out jam.
Collins’ inactivity proved costly especially after a Mets eighth inning rally that was helped by the Braves pulling Teheran.
Cabrera got it started with a one out walk. Seriously, who else would get things started? After Yoenis Cespedes was hit by a pitch, Granderson hit an RBI double. T.J. Rivera hit a sac fly to make it 5-3. The Braves would bring in the lefty Ian Krol to face Bruce.
It wouldn’t happen because Collins would hit Eric Campbell for Bruce. Campbell actually cane through with a pinch hit RBI single. As Terry was rolling the dice, he then hit Kevin Plawecki for James Loney. After Plawecki reached on an error, Collins rolled a snake eyes with his sending Travis d’Arnaud to the plate. d’Arnaud grounded out to kill the rally.
The Mets had their chance in the ninth off Braves closer Jim Johnson. Cabrera hit a seeing eye two out single to bring up Cespedes. It was the exact situation you want. Johnson then made Cespedes look silly on a 2-2 pitch to end the game.
The strange thing about this part of the season is the team has to do everything they can do to win games in order to get their team into the postseason. However, at the same time, the team is assessing players to find out who could be valuable pieces on the postseason roster. Accordingly, the manager has to balance finding out something about a player in a pressure situation with making sure the player doesn’t fail and blow the game.
This year Josh Smoker is the embodiment of that conundrum.
After Josh Edgin struggled, the Mets decided to go call-up Smoker and give him his shot to pitch out of the bullpen. Smoker earned the shot as he had a 1.04 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his 14 appearances after the All Star Game. He was also striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings during that stretch. Additionally, he had the stuff to pitch in the majors. According to Brooks Baseball, Smoker throws over 95 MPH with a slider and split that generates a lot of swings and misses.
Still, relying on Smoker was far from a given. He still had a 4.11 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in AAA. It wasn’t just the typical Pacific Coast League inflation. In his minor league career, Smoker had a 4.58 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Again, while his stuff translated to the majors, it did not translate statistically. Overall, while there was promise, Smoker was far from a given.
That’s what makes Smoker’s current run with the Mets all the more impressive.
In 15 appearances with the Mets, Smoker has a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while striking out an eye-popping 15.3 batters per nine innings. As it stands, he has reverse splits with him faring better against right-handed betters better than he does against left-handed batters. That is not all together unexpected as Smoker was only slightly better against lefties than he was against righties while in AAA this year. This means that Smoker is more than just a LOOGY, he’s a reliever that can be trusted for a full inning.
Over his past seven appearances he’s more than a pitcher than can be trusted. He’s a pitcher that can be used in high leverage situations. In those appearances, Smoker has yet to allow a run while striking out 10 batters in 5.1 innings. He is limiting batters to a .167 batting average while allowing no extra base hits. What’s even more impressive with the batting average numbers is Smoker has allowed a .375 BABIP meaning there’s not going to be regression on the balls in play. Rather, there is promise that he will get even better. The key to this impressive run is he is throwing 71% of his pitches for strikes.
As Smoker has improved at the major league level, the question is transitioning from whether the Mets can rely upon him at all to what exactly will his role be in the postseason.
When a player goes down, the natural inclination is to go seek out a veterans to be the stop gap or replacement. The reaction is understandable because you want a steady presence with someone who has proven stats. Granted, it’s most likely going to be diminished stats, but people would rather deal with that than a young player who may not be ready and could be even worse than the veteran.
That’s why we saw the Mets make a move to re-acquire Kelly Johnson not too long after David Wright went down. It’s why the Mets acquired James Loney to replace Lucas Duda. It’s also why the Mets brought back Jose Reyes to help an injured and underperforming Mets offense. It’s also why the Mets traded for Jay Bruce rather than counting on Michael Conforto to return to form. For the most part, it has worked out for the Mets.
With that said, Reyes is the only imported veteran who is currently producing. Johnson is mired in a 12-54 slump. Loney has hit .253/.287/.337 since the All Star Break. Bruce has hit .181/.261/.297 since joining the Mets.
These underperforming veterans coupled with the Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores injuries have forced the Mets to turn to some youngsters.
T.J. Rivera has all but taken over the second base job for the rest of the year. In the five games since he became the starting second baseman, he is hitting .450/.455/.800 with two home runs. Both of those home runs proved to be game winners. For the season, he is hitting .344/.344/.492.
Yesterday, Conforto started for Bruce, who the Mets have taken to booing after every at bat. Conforto made the most of his opportunity going 2-4 with two RBI. In the four games he was given an opportunity to start since he was recalled when rosters expanded, Conforto has gone 4-16 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk, and a hit by pitch.
It’s not just the offensive players that are outprodicing the veterans, it is the young pitchers as well.
When Matt Harvey went down, the Mets understandably turned to Logan Verrett who did an admirable job filling in as a spot starter last year. Unfortunately, this year he had a 6.45 ERA as a starter in 12 starts. The Mets also went out and brought back Jon Niese who was actually worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates before undergoing season ending knee surgery.
With Verrett and Niese faltering and the injuries to Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom, the Mets had no choice but to go with their young pitchers.
First was Seth Lugo, who has arguably been the Mets best starter since he has joined the rotation. Lugo has made six starts going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. Including his nine relief appearances, Lugo is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP.
He is joined in the rotation by Robert Gsellman. Gsellman has made four starts and one relief appearance where he came in for Niese when he went down for good with his knee injury. Overall, Gsellman is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP.
In addition to the offense and the rotation, the Mets have had Josh Smoker emerge in the bullpen. In 15 appearances, Smoker is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while bailing the Mets out of a few jams. More impressively, he is striking out 15.3 batters per nine innings.
Overall, these young and untested players have stepped up and helped take the Mets from an under .500 team to a team 11 games over .500 and in the top Wild Card spot.