Josh Smoker

Bring Back Jerry Blevins

One of the resounding themes from the 2016 season has been how incredible it was the Mets made it back to the postseason despite Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz needing season ending surgeries. However, that didn’t mean the Mets didn’t have good pitching that led them back to the postseason. In addition to Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon, the Mets had a terrific bullpen that helped them maintain leads when the Mets weren’t getting hits with runners in scoring position, and they helped buttress the young starting pitching that couldn’t go quite as deep into games. While it is imperative the Mets starters come back healthy next season, it is equally as imperative that the Mets bullpen return in tact next year.

This means the Mets need to re-sign Jerry Blevins.

Coming into the 2016 season, Blevins had a reputation of only being a LOOGY. It was with good reason. During his career, Blevins has limited left-handed batters to a .214/.266/.322 batting line whereas right-handed batters have been a more robust .243/.332/.387 against him. In 2016, that began to change.

In Blevins 73 appearances with the Mets, he was actually better against right-handed batters than he was against left-handed batters. Blevins would face right-handed batters 65 times, and he would limit them to a .182/.266/.345 batting line. Granted, it is a small sample size, but there were some things Blevins did to induce those results. First, he scrapped his cutter, which was not an effective pitch for him at all against right-handed pitching. In turn, he used his curveball and changeups at a higher rate, which led to a higher strikeout rate and fewer line drives.

What this meant was the despite your prototypical LOOGY, you could trust Blevins to pitch a right-handed batter between two left-handed batters. It took some of the hand wringing out of which batter should you deploy your weapon. It also allowed you to rest some bullpen arms because you knew you could trust your LOOGY to actually go out and throw an inning unlike other LOOGYs.

Despite Blevins’ remarkable turn-around against right-handed batters, he is still a LOOGY, and as a LOOGY it is his job to get the big left-handed batter out in a big moment in the game. For his career, Blevins has been terrific in those situations:

  • .228 batting average against with RISP
  • .226 batting average against in late and close games
  • .218 batting average against in high leverage situations
  • .220 batting average against in innings from the seventh inning on

* late and close and high leverage situations are as defined by Baseball Reference

We saw this in action when time and again, Blevins limited the damage in games. Overall, Blevins only allowed 14.5% of inherited runners to score this season, which was the best on the team (40 IP minimum). That number is all the more impressive when you consider he inherited more runners than anyone on the Mets staff. In fact, Blevins inherited the second most runners in all of baseball this past year. Out of the pitchers that inherited over 50 batters in 2016, Blevins had the third best rate in preventing runners to score. It should come as no surprise then that he stranded the second most batters in the major leagues. Fo

Overall, when you have a pitcher who gets lefties out, is improving better against right-handed batters, and is at his best in high leverage situations, that is a guy you need to keep in your bullpen.

There is an other important reason to keep Blevins. The Mets don’t have another option. At one point, Josh Edgin was considered to be the LOOGY of the future. Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery before the 2015 season (which ironically was part of the reason the Mets traded Matt den Dekker to obtain him). Edgin was able to pitch this season, but he has not fully regained his velocity. As a result, he wasn’t effective getting lefties out in AAA or the majors this season.

The other notable option is Josh Smoker. However, Smoker is a lefty with reverse splits. Effectively speaking, Smoker is a guy you bring in for the big strikeout, but he is not the guy you bring in to get the big left-handed batter out.

With the Mets having little to no internal options, and with Blevins being an effective LOOGY in his career, the Mets should make it a priority to re-sign him in the offseason. Fortunately for the Mets, Blevins has said he would like to return.amp;utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz needing season ending surgeries.  However, that didn’t mean the Mets didn’t have good pitching that led them back to the postseason.  In addition to Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon, the Mets had a terrific bullpen that helped them maintain leads when the Mets weren’t getting hits with runners in scoring position, and they helped buttress the young starting pitching that couldn’t go quite as deep into games.  While it is imperative the Mets starters come back healthy next season, it is equally as imperative that the Mets bullpen return in tact next year.

This means the Mets need to re-sign Jerry Blevins.

Coming into the 2016 season, Blevins had a reputation of only being a LOOGY.  It was with good reason.  During his career, Blevins has limited left-handed batters to a .214/.266/.322 batting line whereas right-handed batters have been a more robust .243/.332/.387 against him.   In 2016, that began to change.

In Blevins 73 appearances with the Mets, he was actually better against right-handed batters than he was against left-handed batters.  Blevins would face right-handed batters 65 times, and he would limit them to a .182/.266/.345 batting line.  Granted, it is a small sample size, but there were some things Blevins did to induce those results.  First, he scrapped his cutter, which was not an effective pitch for him at all against right-handed pitching.  In turn, he used his curveball and changeups at a higher rate, which led to a higher strikeout rate and fewer line drives.

What this meant was the despite your prototypical LOOGY, you could trust Blevins to pitch a right-handed batter between two left-handed batters.  It took some of the hand wringing out of which batter should you deploy your weapon.  It also allowed you to rest some bullpen arms because you knew you could trust your LOOGY to actually go out and throw an inning unlike other LOOGYs.

Despite Blevins’ remarkable turn-around against right-handed batters, he is still a LOOGY, and as a LOOGY it is his job to get the big left-handed batter out in a big moment in the game.  For his career, Blevins has been terrific in those situations:

  • .228 batting average against with RISP
  • .226 batting average against in late and close games
  • .218 batting average against in high leverage situations
  • .220 batting average against in innings from the seventh inning on

* late and close and high leverage situations are as defined by Baseball Reference

We saw this in action when time and again, Blevins limited the damage in games.  Overall, Blevins only allowed 14.5% of inherited runners to score this season, which was the best on the team (40 IP minimum).  That number is all the more impressive when you consider he inherited more runners than anyone on the Mets staff.  In fact, Blevins inherited the second most runners in all of baseball this past year.  Out of the pitchers that inherited over 50 batters in 2016, Blevins had the third best rate in preventing runners to score.  It should come as no surprise then that he stranded the second most batters in the major leagues.

Overall, when you have a pitcher who gets lefties out, is improving better against right-handed batters, and is at his best in high leverage situations, that is a guy you need to keep in your bullpen.

There is an other important reason to keep Blevins.  The Mets don’t have another option.  At one point, Josh Edgin was considered to be the LOOGY of the future.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery before the 2015 season (which ironically was part of the reason the Mets traded den Dekker to obtain him).  Edgin was able to pitch this season, but he has not fully regained his velocity.  As a result, he wasn’t effective getting lefties out in AAA or the majors this season.

The other notable option is Josh Smoker.  However, Smoker is a lefty with reverse splits.  Effectively speaking, Smoker is a guy you bring in for the big strikeout, but he is not the guy you bring in to get the big left-handed batter out.

With the Mets having little to no internal options, and with Blevins being an effective LOOGY in his career, the Mets should make it a priority to re-sign him in the offseason.  Fortunately for the Mets, Blevins has said he would like to return.  Even with that said, the Mets are not optimistic a reunion could happen.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online. 

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Mets Final Season Grades – Relievers

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the ninth set of grades, here are the other Mets relievers:

Hansel Robles B+

This was the second year of his career, and to date, he has yet to carve out a role for himself.  The main reason for that is Terry Collins has used him in every sort of role imaginable.  He has been used to bail the Mets out of a bases loaded no out jam.  He has been used as a set-up man in the seventh and eighth innings.  He has closed out a game.  He has also been called on to pitch over three innings in a game.  Without looking it up, it is safe to say Robles was the only pure reliever this year to throw a pitch in every inning this season.  Essentially, Robles has become the Mets version of Ramiro Mendoza. 

Robles was having a great year for himself too before Collins over-worked him.  In a one week span, Robles threw 127 pitches while making three appearances of over two innings.  Robles next appearance after that?  Well, it was four days later, and it was a two inning effort that needed Robles to throw 33 pitches.  By late August, he was spent having made many more appearances and having thrown many more pitches than he had his entire career.  Overall, Robles was 6-4 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.352 WHIP.

Who knows what’s in store for Robles in 2017?  Whatever it is, we can reasonably assume he will perform well in that role.

Jerry Blevins B

With Blevins injured in 2015, the Mets had a long search for a LOOGY that never materialized.  In 2016, we all got to see what the Mets were missing as Blevins had a good year.  Overall, Blevins made 73 appearances going 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.214 WHIP.  As luck would have it, Blevins would actually have reverse splits for the first time in his career.

Right-handed batters were only able to hit .182/.266/.345 off of Blevins while left-handed batters hit .255/.313/.324 off of him.  Those numbers are usually reversed, and in reality, right-handed batters typically hit him much harder than that.  This speaks to the strides Blevins made in becoming more than just a LOOGY.  He became a pitcher that can be relied upon to pitch a full inning.  It increased not just his value to the Mets, but also his free agent value.

Sean Gilmartin D

Gilmartin went from an important piece of the Mets bullpen in 2015 to having a lost year.  He began the year in AAA as a starter, but by the end of the year, it would be unclear what his role with the Mets would be in the future.

Initially, Gilmartin succeeded as a starter, but he would be called up to the Mets to pitch out of the pen.  He would be used on three days or less of rest.  Initially, he pitched well out of the pen for the Mets encouraging the team to do it more.  As a result, his numbers suffered, and he missed part of the year with a shoulder injury.  When it became time for the Mets to go to the minor leagues for starting pitching depth, Gilmartin was no longer an option on that front.  When the Mets were desperate enough in September to give him a start, he wouldn’t make it out of the first inning.

Overall, Gilmartin made 14 appearances going 0-1 with a 713 ERA and a 1.585 WHIP.  After a year like this, it will be interesting to see what role, if any, Gilmartin has on the Mets in 2017.

Erik Goeddel D

It appears that Goeddel may be the Eric Campbell of relief pitchers.  There are many people who point to a number of statistics to say he should be a capable major league player.  However, as the sample size grows and grows, his performance suffers as do his numbers.  In 36 appearances this season, Goeddel was 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.138 WHIP.  This was a result of him becoming more hittable and his issuing more walks.  With all that said, there is still hope for him as he did post a 9.1 K/9.  Despite that, he looks like he will be best suited to starting the year in the minors.

Josh Edgin C-

In Edgin’s first year back from Tommy John surgery, he did not regain his velocity, and he had some trouble with his control.  Those two issues combined led to him issuing more walks and to batters getting more hits off of him.  In his 16 appearances for the Mets, he would to 1-0 with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.548 WHIP.

These are ugly numbers indeed, but there was some good news behind those numbers.  Edgin, who was supposed to be the Mets LOOGY entering 2015, did limit left-handed batters to a .235/.300/.235 batting line.  In that essence, Edgin proved he could handle the role as a LOOGY, and it appears the Mets just might given him that chance in 2017.

Josh Smoker C+

Here is what Smoker is: he is a fastball throwing left-handed pitcher that racks up strikeouts.  He is not a pitcher that can left-handed batters out, nor is he a pitcher that should ever pitch more than one inning.  Collins inability to recognize that led to Smoker’s numbers being worse than they could have been.  Keep in mind, Smoker was called upon to go more than one inning, three times, and on each occasion he allowed a home run.

Overall, Smoker was 3-0 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.304 WHIP.  Most impressively, Smoker struck out 14.7 batters per nine innings.  With those strikeout numbers, Smoker belongs in a major league bullpen, and chances are, we may very well find himself in one next season.

Antonio Bastardo F

All you need to know about his season is the Mets traded him away and gave the Pirates money to obtain Jon Niese, who was having the worst year of his career.  When the Mets are giving other teams money to take players off their hands, you know a player was having a nightmare of a season.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

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Who Could Replace a Suspended Jeurys Familia?

With Jeurys Familia having been arrested under suspicion of domestic violence, there are a number of questions that need to be asked and answered.  While it may seem tactless, at some point, we need to ask the question of how does this arrest impact the Mets organization.

Over the past two seasons, Familia has been leaned on heavily by Terry Collins, and Familia has responded.  In his two years as the Mets closer, Familia has made more appearances, converted more saves, pitched more innings, and finished more games than any other closer in Major League Baseball.  He has at least appeared to be the rare durable closer that can be relied upon year in and year out.

Many times Familia has not been given much of a margin of error.  For far too many stretches in 2015 and 2016, the Mets have found themselves desperate for offense putting a ton of pressure on their starters and their best relievers.  This past season Familia and Addison Reed combined to be the best 8-9 combination in all of baseball.  With the possibility of Yoenis Cespedes leaving in free agency, the uncertainty of the health of Neil Walker and whether he can return next season, and the myriad of other offensive question marks, the bullpen is once again going to be of great importance in 2017.

That’s where things get tricky with Familia.  While he has stated he is not guilty of the crimes, we have seen Major League Baseball levy suspensions for players regardless of criminal charges being filed or in the absence of a conviction.  The police never filed charges against Aroldis Chapman, and still he was suspended 30 games.  The charges against Jose Reyes were dropped, and he was suspended for 51 games.  If a Major League Baseball investigation finds Familia committed an act of domestic violence, it is possible he could miss 30 or more games to start the season.

With Reed, the Mets do have an internal option to close.  From 2012 – 2014, Reed served as a closer for the White Sox and the Diamondbacks.  In that time, he averaged 34 saves per season.  While his 4.22 ERA and 1.217 WHIP left a lot to be desired, it is important to note Reed has been a different pitcher since coming to the Mets.  As a Met, he has a 1.84 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP.  Certainly, Reed has shown the ability in the past to be a closer, and with the Mets Reed has shown the ability to be a dominant reliever.  Therefore, from a closing standpoint, the Mets have an internal option.

The real issue becomes who takes Reed’s spot in the bullpen.

Hansel Robles has shown a lot of promise.  He has struck out 10.0 batters per nine in his career, and he is effective getting left-handed batters out.  However, he is also mercurial in his performance, and slotting him into the eighth inning takes away one of his key attributes which is he is a guy that you can use for multiple innings or to get a big out.

Josh Smoker had great strikeout numbers in both the minors and in the majors this season.  In fact, he struck out 14.7 batters per nine.  However, he has severe reverse splits, and each time Collins asked him to pitch more than one inning this year, he allowed a home run in his second inning of work.

Seth Lugo could be an inspired choice to take over the eighth inning.  As we saw this season, the Mets envisioned his future role with the team coming out of the bullpen, and Lugo was effective in his limited time out of the pen for the Mets.  However, we also saw he was an effective starter, and with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz coming off season ending surgeries, we were reminded you cannot have enough starting pitching depth.

There are minor league pitchers such as Paul Sewald who could be effective.  However, with the Mets not turning to them in September, it is highly unlikely they will rely on them to be the seventh or eighth inning reliever to start the season.  It is further unlikely with him being subjected to the Rule 5 Draft.  It is very likely someone will pick him up in the draft.

From there, the Mets do not have many internal options.  In reality, this means with Familia potentially missing a significant portion of the season, the Mets will likely have to look on the free agent market to fill in the gap.

The first name that comes to mind is Fernando Salas.  In his limited time with the Mets, he was very effective.  In fact, he had the same reversal of fortune that Reed did in 2015.  Still, there is caution in over relying on a pitcher with a career 3.64 ERA to replace one of your two best bullpen arms.

There are a number of intriguing set-up men on the free agent market.  There is Joe Blanton who had a 2.48 ERA in 75 appearances for the Dodgers.  Former Met Joe Smith has been a good reliever for 10 years, and during the stretch drive with the Cubs this year, he had a a 2.51 ERA in 16 appearances.  Brad Ziegler is coming off a terrific year as a closer for the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox.  There are a bunch of other names as well.  However, as we have seen as recently as last year with Antonio Bastardo, many middle reliever performances tend to fluctuate year to year.  This leaves you wondering not only how to replace that player’s role in the bullpen, but also how to get out from under the contract.

Therefore, if you are going to add a reliever you should go after the dominant closer in free agency.  While there is debate over whether or not they are more of a sure thing, we do know there are three great closers available this offseason.

We can pick nits over who is better among the trio of Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon.  However, the one underlying truth with any of those three is if you have one of them, you have a dominant closer in your bullpen.  As we have seen with Familia over the past two seasons, you are lucky to have any of these dominant closers.  With one of those three joining Reed, and eventually Familia, the Mets would have a bullpen similar to the one the Indians have rode all the way to the World Series.

The Mets will also have a lot of money invested in their bullpen.  According to the Los Angeles Times, it is believed that Jansen will not only receive and reject the $17.2 million qualifying offer, but also he will eventually sign a contract surpassing Jonathan Papelbon‘s then record setting five year $50 million contract.  With Jansen on the free agent market, and big budget teams like the Dodgers chasing after him, there is no telling how high the bidding will go for him.

For their part, Chapman and Melancon cannot receive qualifying offers as a result of them being traded in-season.  At least conceptually, that could drive up their prices as well because more teams may be interested in them because they will not have to forfeit a draft pick to obtain them.  Teams like the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, and who knows who else could be interested leading to each of them getting a huge contract.

This begs the question whether the Mets can even afford to pursue a big time closer.  Likely, they cannot.

According to Mets Merized Online, the Mets will have approximately $108 million wrapped up in 18 players who should make the Opening Day roster.  That number does not include money to re-sign Cespedes, Walker, Jerry Blevins, Bartolo Colon, or the aforementioned Salas.  If the Mets were to re-sign these players, or players of similar value to replace them, the Mets payroll is going to go well over $160 million.  Accoring to Spotrac, the Mets finished the 2016 season with a $156 million payroll.  It should be noted this amount does not include any insurance reimbursements related to David Wright‘s season ending neck surgery.

With that in mind, the Mets likely do not have the budget necessary to add a Chapman, Jansen, or Melancon.  If the Mets were to add one of them, it is likely to come at the expense of Cespedes or Walker.  While having a dominant trio to close out ballgames in enticing, the Mets would first need offense to get enough runs to give that bullpen a lead.  This puts a greater priority on Cespedes and Walker.

In the long run, the Mets best bet is to play out the entire process with Familia.  If there is a suspension, Reed can be an effective closer.  Re-signing Salas and/or bringing in a Ziegler would help as well.  It would behoove the Mets to roll the dice on a reclamation project like a Greg Holland or a Drew Storen because in reality that is the position the Mets are in budget-wise.

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The Mets 2016 Minor League Season

Like the Mets, the minor league affiliates’ seasons are long over, and over at Mets Minors, organizational leaderboards are being compiled, and awards are being handed out:

Full Season Batting Leaders – statistically speaking Brandon Nimmo might’ve had the best year especially with him missing out on the Pacific League batting title by .001 points and him having the top OBP in the farm system.

Short Season Batting Leaders – Despite having had the shortest season, Peter Alonso might’ve had the biggest impact

Minor League Best Starting Pitchers – Statistically speaking, the Mets best minor league pitchers were P.J. Conlon, Thomas Szapucki, Harol Gonzalez, Ricky Knapp, and Andrew Church. 

Full Season Pitching Leaders – Naturally, the above-referenced pitchers were listed throughout.

Short Season Pitching Leaders – Gonzalez and Gary Cornish dominated for the Brooklyn Cyclones while Szapucki continued to show why he is becoming a big time prospect.

Here is how all the 2015 draft picks fared with Alonso and Justin Dunn as standouts.  And nowadays, you would be remiss without mentioning the fact that Tim Tebow homered in his first professional at-bat.

However, here are the bigger awards everyone is most curious about:

Position Player of the Year – Amed Rosario with honorable mention to Dominic Smith

Pitcher of the Year – P.J. Conlon

Reliever of the Year – David Roseboom

As you saw this season, there were major contributors from the Mets minor league system this year.  If not for Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Josh Smoker, T.J. Rivera, and others, the Mets may not make the postseason this year.  It is not only good to know the Mets minor league system has been this beneficial, but also that there is a significant amount of talent behind the players we have already seen contribute.

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Reasons to Believe the Mets Will Win the Wild Card Game

Noah Syndergaard

Yoenis Cespedes

Asdrubal Cabrera

Curtis Granderson

 

T.J. Rivera

Jay Bruce

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu1toI7woD4

Alejandro De Aza

Rene Rivera

Jose Reyes

James Loney

Lucas Duda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_42D7hjW-1U

Kelly Johnson

Travis d’Arnaud

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFgXQdYQna0

Michael Conforto

Juan Lagares

Jerry Blevins

Fernando Salas

Addison Reed

Jeurys Familia

Oh, and in case, you still think winning the Wild Card Game is impossible, there’s Bartolo Colon to show you nothing is impossible:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzLERV9l9Vs

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Josh Edgin & Robert Gsellman on the Wild Card Game Roster; Lucas Duda, Seth Lugo, Josh Smoker Left Off

The New York Mets have announced their Wild Card Game Roster for tonight’s winner-take-all game tonight at Citi Field

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

There were a few surprises on this roster. The one that immediately stands out is the Mets not carrying Lucas Duda on the roster. In a short period of time, Duda has gone from in the conversation to starting at first base tonight to not even being on the roster. His will be a big bat the Mets will miss for a late inning pinch hitting opportunity.

The next surprise was the Mets carrying Gsellman over Seth Lugo. While Gsellman has been the hotter pitcher over the past couple of starts, Gsellman does not have the experience Lugo has coming out of the bullpen.

The biggest surprise was the Mets carrying Edgin over Josh Smoker. This season, Smoker has struck out 14.7 batters per nine, and he has gotten the Mets out of a few tough jams. Edgin, on the other hand, has struggled this season due in large part to him not fully regaining his velocity after Tommy John surgery. However, despite the surprise, there is some justification for the decision.

First, both Smoker and Edgin are one inning pitchers. Each time Terry Collins has tried to push Smoker past one inning of work, he has allowed a second home run. With them both being one inning pitchers, the Mets most likely sought to use the pitcher who matches up better against the Giants. Given the Giants have many left-handed batters, Edgin seems to be the better choice. This season, lefties are hitting .235/.300/.235 off of Edgin as opposed to .360/.448/.600 off of Smoker.

Overall, the hope is that the Mets don’t have to use Edgin or worry about leaving Smoker off the roster. First and foremost, Blevins is going to be the LOOGY in the big spot, and Robleshas reverse splits. Additionally, the Mets 7-8-9- combination of Salas-Reed-Familia pitch just as well against lefties as they do to righties. In the end, so long as Syndergaard and the back end of the bullpen do their job, as we all expect they will do, the Edgin/Smoker decision will not amount to much.

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Projected Wild Card Game Roster

One of the quirks of the Wild Card Game is a team is able to create a standalone 25 man roster just for that game.  After the completion of the Wild Card Game, the winning team is able to reset its roster for the Division Series.  With that in mind, when the Mets construct their roster, they really have no need to carry extra starting pitchers.  Instead, they can carry an extra reliever or two, and they can add a couple of bats on the bench for pinch hitting and running opportunities.  With that in mind, here is how I would construct the roster.

Catchers (2) – Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera

With the Wild Card Game starting pitcher likely to be either Syndergaard or Lugo, it seems that Rivera will be Terry Collins choice as the starting catcher.  If the Mets fall behind early, he may very well go to d’Arnaud for offense.  However, for now, Rivera seems the likely starter.

First Base (2) – Lucas Duda and James Loney

The only variable we don’t know right now is whether Duda can play everyday during a postseason run.  However, we have seen him play effectively here and there as he gets more playing time.  If Duda is ready to go, he has to start.  If not, Loney can start with Duda being the power bat off the bench.  If Duda does start, Loney is there for insurance for Duda’s back, and he can hit right-handed pitching reaosnably well in the event the Mets need an extra pinch hitter.

Second Base (2) – Kelly Johnson and T.J. Rivera

If the Mets face the Giants and Madison Bumgarner, it is likely Rivera gets the start.  If the Mets face the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez, it is likely Johnson gets the start.  No matter which one gets the start, we know that the other one will be the best pinch hitting option when the Mets need a bit hit.

Third Base (1) – Jose Reyes

At this point, barring something unusual happening, Reyes is the team’s everyday third baseman and leadoff hitter.  He also serves as a backup shortstop in the event something happens to Cabrera

Shortstop (1) – Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is the best hitter in the major leagues during the month of September, and while he has two injured knees, he is able to effectively handle all the balls that come within the vicinity of shortstop.

Outfield – (5) Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Alejandro De Aza, Curtis Granderson

Given how Bruce’s bat has come alive the past few games and with the way Conforto has been adapting to being a pinch hitter, both players should find themselves on the Wild Card Game roster.  What will be curious is whether it is Bruce or De Aza that finds themselves in the outfield with Cespedes and Granderson.  In a winner-take-all situation, Collins just might be inclined to go with the defense over the bat.

Starting Pitchers (3) – Bartolo Colon, Seth Lugo, and Noah Syndergaard

Whether or not Syndergaard pitches on Sunday, he has to be on the roster.  You cannot go down without the ability to throw your best pitcher, even if it is for one inning.  Same goes for your second best pitcher, which is why Colon should be on the roster.  As for Lugo, he should make the roster because: 1) he has experience as a short reliever; and 2) it is his turn in the rotation, so he can give you as many innings as you need.

Bullpen (5) – Jerry Blevins, Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Fernando Salas and Josh Smoker

If things go to plan, it is likely the Mets are not going to need more than Reed and Familia.  If the starter is able to go six, Reed can pitch the seventh and Familia can get the final two innings like he did in the NLDS clincher last year.  In the event things don’t go as smoothly, this bullpen can effectively mix and match.  Smoker seems like a given to make the roster because it gives the Mets an extra lefty in the pen, one with reverse splits, that can get a big strikeout when the Mets are in a jam.

Bubble –

If the Mets were to go with this group of players, and it seems likely they would that leaves the team with 22 players on the roster with decisions to make for the final four spots.  Here is a case for each of the potential bubble players:

Position Players

UT Eric Campbell  – As we saw when the Mets faced Adam Conley and the Marlins, Collins has fallen back in the habit of using Campbell as his right-handed first baseman.  In the event the Mets face the Giants, Campbell may well find himself getting a postseason start.  If not, he has shown the ability to be a very effective pinch hitter in tight games.

UT Ty Kelly – Collins has liked using as a pinch runner towards the back-end of the season.  Even though he is much better hitting right-handed in his short major league career, Kelly’s switch hitting ability does have some usefulness in neutralizing an opposing manager’s ability to go to a lefty/righty in a big spot for multiple outs.

CF Juan Lagares – Lagares just started to swing the bat, but we still don’t know if he can do it multiple times in a game if necessary.  However, with the Mets not needing to carry as many pitchers, Lagares could be kept on the roster to bunt, pinch run, and play defense in the late innings.

C Kevin Plawecki – Plawecki has not done much of anything offensively this season.  However, he remains a good defensive catcher, and his presence on the team would permit Collins to be aggressive in bringing in d’Arnaud for offense with full knowledge that the Mets have other catcher on the bench.

SS Matt Reynolds – Especially given Cabrera’s injuries further limiting his range, Reynolds could very well be the Mets best defensive shortstop.  Should Cabrera have to leave the game with an injury, Reynolds could step right in defensively.  Additionally, in the event Collins needs to start double switching people in and out of the game to keep a pitcher in longer, Reynolds’ ability to competently play second, third, short, and left make him a versatile and valuable bench piece.

Bullpen

LHP Josh Edgin – His chances of making the roster increase if the Mets play the Giants given the presence of Denard Span and Brandon Belt.  In that event, the Mets may want that one extra lefty to have multiple matchup opportunities.  Against the Cardinals, the need for the extra left-hander won’t be as great.

RHP Erik Goeddel – Even if it has been mostly in mop-up duty, Goeddel has pitched much better in September than he has all season.  Unlike Edgin or Henderson (below), Goedell has also shown the ability to go multiple innings lately thereby increasing his usefulness out of the pen.

RHP Robert Gsellman – Gsellman could make the team as a long reliever with Collins then using Lugo as a one inning reliever who can let it fly for one or two innings.  Additionally, with Gsellman’s sinker, Collins could elect to go with him in a situation in which the Mets need to get a double play.

RHP Jim Henderson – Henderson hasn’t been the same since coming back from the disabled list.  With that said, he’s still striking out 10.6 per nine, and so far this month, he has seven scoreless appearances.  More than any of the above, he has the biggest upside.  However, when he loses with 95+ MPH fastball, and it happens without a moment’s notice, he’s going to get hit around.

Prediction

Who the Mets carry for the final three spots will be largely based upon the opponent.  In the event that the Mets face the Giants, the odds of Campbell and Edgin making the roster go up significantly.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, who have multiple effective lefties out of the pen, someone like Kelly with his switch hitting ability could see his chances of making the roster increase.

Overall, considering how the Mets have handled the catching situation late in the season, the Mets should probably carry Plawecki as a third catcher.  Doing so will permit Collins to switch out Rivera for d’Arnaud if the Mets fall behind early or if the Mets need a right-handed pinch hitter.

If the Mets face the Giants, it is likely that Campbell will make the roster as the starting first baseman.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the Mets will then likely carry Kelly as a pinch runner/pinch hitter or Reynolds.  Given how the concerns over Cabrera’s knees, and the need to double switch late in games, and because Reynolds has some extra pop in his bat than Kelly, Reynolds should be the choice.

The last spot becomes dicey.  As the Mets bullpen is constituted, the team has multiple pitchers who can go multiple innings thereby negating the need to carry an eighth reliever.  This choice here will likely be and should be opponent driven.  If the Mets face the Giants, Edgin should be the choice so the Mets can get multiple lefty/lefty matchups late in games.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the team should probably carry both Reynolds and Kelly.  This would help the Mets neutralize the Cardinals unleashing their left-handed relievers against the Mets late in the game.

Of course, if Lagares is truly healthy enough to swing the bat, as he has done the past few games, he definitely needs to be on the roster.  He had a good postseason last year, and he’s the team’s best defensive outfielder.

There are a number of interesting decisions ahead, and ultimately it will depend on the opponent and whether the Cardinals keep enough heat on the Giants so Bumgarner had to pitch on Sunday.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online

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The Las Vegas 51s Made This Fun

Look, even with the Mets remaining schedule, it was unrealistic to expect them to finish the year undefeated. They’re going to lose some games. Tonight was a game you’d expect with Sean Gilmartin, who hasn’t started a game in over a month, having to make the spot start because Noah Syndergaard has strep throat. 

Things went worse than expected. Right off the bat, the Phillies went up 3-0 off a Maikel Franco three run homer. Gilmartin then loaded the bases, including an intentional walk to the right place hitter Jorge Alfaro. Things were going so poorly for Gilmartin tonight, he couldn’t escape the jam. Opposing pitcher Alec Asher would hit a two RBI single chasing Gilmartin from the game. 

Terry Collins brought in Rafael Montero, who eventually  got out of the jam. Of course with him being Montero, he’d make things a lot worse. 

Under his watch, the Phillies lead would expand to 10-0. Given the state of the Mets bullpen, Collins did the smart thing and made Montero just get through it. Montero allowed five earned on 3.1 innings. Collins pulled him after 67 pitches. 

The bright side about going down 10-0 is Collins was able to pull his starters and give them some time off. Collins gave his starters to put a run on the board, but they didn’t. With that, Collins pulled Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Curtis Granderson. He replaced them with T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, Ty Kelly, and Brandon Nimmo. 

Astutely, Collins also left in Travis d’Arnaud, Lucas Duda, and Michael Conforto. Each of these players need to get some reps if they are going to be the postseason contributors the Mets need them to be. 

This is the group of players that would make the game some fun. While the starters couldn’t hit Asher the backups could. 

Duda got the rally started by busting it out of the box and reaching on a Freddy Galvis error. After a d’Arnaud single, Franco would throw the ball away. Instead of a possible inning ending double play, Cecchini reached, and Duda scored. 

After a Rivera single, Nimmo would hit a double scoring Cecchini. Kelly then hit a sac fly scoring Nimmo. Collins then pinch hit James Loney who ruined everything by making an out. Being fair, he did hit the ball hard down the line, but still, it’s Loney. 

The 51s would then get two more in the sixth. Collins actually kept Conforto in against the left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez. Conforto got the rally started with a one out walk, and Duda followed with a single up the middle. After a d’Arnaud strikeout, Cecchini would get his first career hit with an RBI double to right-center. For some reason (oh right, he’s a bad third base coach), Tim Teufel held Duda who could’ve scored easily. Fortunately, it wouldn’t come back to bite the Mets as Rivera dribbled down the line for an RBI single. It’s a hard hit single in the box score. 

In an attempt to not go to anyone who will pitch in the playoffs, Collins tried to push Jim Henderson to a second inning. Normally, this would a really bad move, but all things considered, it was understandable. When Henderson got in trouble, Collins went to Josh Smoker to try to get the Mets out of the jam. 

With Cesar Hernandez reaching on a bunt single Smoker double clutched on, and A.J. Ellis swiping third when d’Arnaud tried to pick him off, it looked like the come back dream was dead. When Odubel Herrera lifted a fly ball to left, it was a foregone conclusion.  Except it wasn’t. Kelly would unleash a parabolic throw home that would beat Ellis by a mile to keep the score at 10-6. 

Kelly would then lead off the bottom of the seventh with a single. Alejandro De Aza pinch hit for Smoker and flied out to center.  Eric Campbell then hit into an inning ending double play. It seemed as is the Mets best chance of winning the game was over. You would be wrong. 

Phillies reliever Hector Neris would issue back-to-back one out walks to Duda and d’Arnaud. Cecchini would then hit his second career double, barely missing a home run, scoring Duda to make it 10-7. Finally, the Mets could bring the tying run to the plate. Unfortunately, Rivera flied out to shallow center, and Nimmo popped out. 

At this point, you were expecting the Mets to come back in the ninth to win it.

Things got so insane Jay Bruce hit a pinch hit no doubt home run against Phillies reliever Michael Mariot. Campbell then came back from 0-2 and worked out an 11 pitch walk.  That allowed the Mets to bring Conforto to the plate as the tying run with Duda behind him. Once Conforto walked, Duda came up as the go-ahead run. It was the first time all night, the Mets got the go-ahead run to the plate. 

Duda popped out leaving it to d’Arnaud. Sadly, d’Arnaud hit a come backer to end the game. There was some slight disappointment with that. However, the young players made this a fun game to watch. Instead of losing 10-0, we got a sense of what the future may look like. It looks like a group of gritty, never say die, talented players. 

Yes, the loss hurts, especially with the Cardinals having already won and the Giants winning. However, if you are going to lose, you might as well have your big guys get some rest and watch your young players thrive in the process. 

Final Score: Phillies 10 – 51s 8 – Mets 0

Game Notes: With Cecchini, Nimmo, and Conforto playing, the Mets had three of Sandy Alderson’s first round draft picks in the same lineup. With the loss, the Nationals clinched the NL East. 

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Terry Collins Decision of the Game – Pulling Gabriel Ynoa

There is a fine line between being aggressive and going for it and just flat out panicking. The way Terry Collins managed last night was clearly the former. 

In his two innings of work Gabriel Ynoa was getting hit by the Phillies. He allowed five hits, two runs, two earned, and one walk with only one strikeout. There were no extra base hits or any balls hit particularly hard. Still, Ynoa wasn’t fooling anyone. With him having already thrown 43 pitches, it was hard to imagine him going deep in the game. 

However, no reasonable person could expect what happened next. 

Travis d’Arnaud hit a two out RBI double to pull the Mets within 2-1. Then, rather than let Ynoa make his obligatory out to end the inning, Collins pinch hit Ty Kelly for Ynoa. In the second inning, Collins chased the run and pulled his starter from the game. If it’s Game Seven of the World Series where there’s no tomorrow, and you have your full compliment of arms, sure; why not? However, the Mets do have a game tomorrow. 

By the way, in that game, the Mets are starting Sean Gilmartin because Noah Syndergaard has strep throat. Gilmartin’s last start was over a month ago. This means, at best, you can expect him to go five innings. More likely, you’re going to get less than that. With that in mind, you need as many guys as you can pitch tomorrow. 

The Mets also needed to rest their bullpen as they have been taxed lately. Here is the breakdown in how much they’ve been used this week:

  • Sunday 4.1 innings
  • Monday 5.1 innings
  • Tuesday 3.2 innings 
  • Wednesday 2.1 innings 
  • Thursday 6.0 innings

With that usage, Collins was asking his bullpen to find him seven innings the day before he was likely going to have to go deep into the bullpen again. Also, Sunday’s starter is Robert Gsellman who is averaging 5.2 innings per start meaning the Mets will most likely need to go deep into their bullpen again.  

However, that’s addressing the future; a future that Collins ignored. Let’s focus on yesterday’s game. 

Heading into the game, Collins already announced Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia were unavailable.  Gilmartin is unavailable as he’s pitching tomorrow. All of the Mets arms have been used multiple times all week meaning the fresh arm in the bullpen was Logan Verrett. Verrett was where Collins went. 

This season Verrett has a 5.22 ERA. Batters are hitting .284/.364/.530 off of him. While Ynoa hasn’t been great in his limited major league sample size, but there was no reason to believe Verrett would actually be a better option. If the Mets truly believed that Verrett was the better option, he would have been named the starter when it was announced Steven Matz was being shut down for the season. 

Verrett would go out there and pitch two pretty ugly innings of his own. He allowed a leadoff homer to Maikel Franco in the third. He would then load the bases in the fourth, and he would narrowly escape the jam. 

With Verrett pitching poorly, Collins would have to desperately find guys to go multiple innings to try to avoid going to Reed and Familia. 

He first tried Josh Smoker. In his second inning of work, Darin Ruf would hit a two run homer off of him.  Erik Goeddel would come in for Smoker and pitch a clean inning. 

Despite his history of arm problems, Collins would try to push Goeddel another inning. When he got into a jam, Collins brought in Josh Edgin for a batter. After Edgin allowed a single, Collins did what he usually does in these situations. Collins brought in Hansel Robles not just to get out if the jam, but also to pitch the final 2.2 innings to get the win. 

Robles did his job as did most of the Mets bullpen last night. However, Collins didn’t. He put the Mets in a position to empty their bullpen of their worst relievers instead of allowing Ynoa to go deeper in the game. 

Now, the Mets bullpen is taxed, and it she’s not PpeR things will get better for them anytime soon. 

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Seemingly Everyone Played and Contributed to this Win

It wasn’t too long ago that Terry Collins said he had no confidence in any of his right field options other than Jay Bruce. As Bruce struggled, the statement looked more and more ridiculous. Tonight, it looked downright absurd as most of Collins’ decisions of late are looking. 

Gabriel Ynoa had allowed two runs over two innings when his turn to bat came up in the bottom of the second. Simply put, Collins panicked at the early deficit, and he pinch hit Ty Kelly. 

Collins made this decision despite the bullpen throwing six innings yesterday. He did it with Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia unavailable. He did it with Sean Gilmartin having to pitch tomorrow with Noah Syndergaard unable to go tomorrow because he has strep throat. Collins surveyed the landscape and determined the only way the Mets win the game is it Kelly pinch hits there to knock in Travis d’Arnaud, who just hit an RBI double, to tie it up. That was worth going to his bullpen for seven innings. 

Collins, who was managing to win it, then went to Logan Verrett. Verrett went two innings, and the Mets were lucky he allowed just one run. 

That set the stage for a big fifth inning. 

The Mets quickly loaded the bases against Jeremy Hellickson, who was seemingly down 3-1 in the count to every Mets batter that inning. 

The first run would come off a Curtis Granderson RBI single. Kelly Johnson followed with an RBI single of his own. When Phillies right fielder Roman Quinn misplayed the Johnson single, Yoenis Cespedes came to score from second as well. Then with a base open, the Phillies opted to pitch to Michael Conforto:

The three run homer capped a six run inning and gave the Mets a 7-3 lead. Unfortunately, this wouldn’t be a laugher or an easy game. 

Heading into the fifth, Collins removed d’Arnaud and replaced him with Rene Rivera as part of a double switch to try to get two innings from Josh Smoker. As usual, Smoker pitched well in his first inning. However, in his second inning of work, Darin Ruf would hit a two run home run off of him. This was the third time this year Collins tried to go a second inning with Smoker. All three times Smoker allowed a home run in his second inning of work. 

Just like that it was 7-5. In the top of the seventh, the lead appeared in jeopardy. The Pbillies rallied off Josh Edgin putting runners at the corners with one out. When the right-hand hitting Tommy Joseph was announced as the pinch hitter for Peter Bourjos, Collins countered with Hansel Robles. 

Joseph would pull a grounder right down the third base line. With Jose Reyes guarding the line, it turned into a 5-5-3 inning ending double play. 

The Mets then blew it open in the bottom of thr seventh.

Cespedes got things started with a lead off double, and Granderson followed with a walk. Collins then pinch hit Juan Lagares for Johnson to bunt. Lagares got down the bunt, and Cameron Rupp pounced on it. Rupp went to third to try to get the force, but he made a slightly offline throw that Maikel Franco could’ve made a play on, but didn’t. 

On the error, Cespedes scored, and the other two runners moved up a base. With the Phillies having the lefty, Patrick Schuster, on the mound, Collins pinch hit Eric Campbell for Conforto because Collins obviously had no confidence in Conforto’s ability to hit a lefty. Campbell would make Collins look good hitting a pinch hit RBI single.  T.J. Rivera then pinch hit for Lucas Duda, and he hit a sac fly scoring Lagares to make it 10-5 Mets. 

The bigger lead allowed the Mets to do a couple of things. First, it allowed Collins to bring in Matt Reynolds for Asdrubal Cabrera, who had earlier fouled a ball hard off his good knee. It also allowed the Mets to keep Robles in the game. 

Robles pitched 2.2 innings earning his first ever major league save. He did get some help with a vintage Lagares catch. It was fitting when you consider everyone contributed to this win. 

Game Notes: With Collins going deep into his bullpen, both Smoker and Robles got at bats. 

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