Jose Reyes
On a cold and blustery Christmas Eve night at Citi Field, faithful manager Terry Collins enters Fred Wilpon’s office.
Terry: I just wanted to stop on my way out to wish you and your family a happy holiday, and I just wanted to let you know I look forward to working with you and Sandy to help build a Mets team that can go to the World Series again.
Fred: What do you mean build?
Terry: Well, there are a few areas I was hoping to address. With Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins free agents, we need a couple of relievers in the bullpen, and –
Fred: Relievers? I just gave you two guys last week!
Terry: I know, but those were minor league deals.
Fred: I don’t get it. After Madoff, I’ve done all I could do to get my money back, and now everyone wants me to just give it away.
Terry: Well, we do owe the fans.
Fred: Seriously?
Terry: Well, I guess not. Anyway, happy holidays, and I look forward to next season.
Fred: Bah!
Not long after Terry leaves, Fred Wilpon leaves Citi Field, and he begins his drive to Greenwich. He pulls up to a stately manor that hasn’t been renovated since 2008. He makes his way into the bedroom, and before he can turn on the lights, he hears a ghostly whisper coming from behind him. It sounds like his name, but he initially can’t quite make it out. Suddenly, as if out of nowhere a figure emerges.
Fred: No, it can’t be. Is that really you?
M. Donald Grant: It is.
Fred: But, you’re dead. How? How?
M. Donald Grant: I’ve come here to deliver a message.
Fred: What?
M. Donald Grant: Remember when I was alive, I won a World Series, and then I refused pay raises to everyone. Remember when I shipped Tom Seaver and everyone of value out of town?
Fred: All while keeping the team profitable!
M. Donald Grant: Yup, I mean no. No! I was wrong, and now I have to watch the 1962 Mets over and over again. But worse, I have to give the players raises after each and every game despite no one coming to the ballpark!
Fred: The horror.
M. Donald Grant: And if you don’t change, your fate will be worse than mine.
Fred: No . . . NO! . . . You’ve got to save me.
M. Donald Grant: Tonight, you will be visited by three spirits. Listen to them! Do what they say! Or you will be cursed for eternity.
And with that the apparition of Grant faded away leaving Fred frightened in his room. A few times he splashed cold water on his face and pinched himself to make sure he wasn’t dreaming. Still shaken, Fred made his way to bed. After a while, his fatigue got the better of his anxiety, and he faded to sleep. Then there was a loud noise like the roar of the crowd. It jostled Fred from his sleep. Still groggy, he looked out and couldn’t believe the figure before him.
Fred: No, it can’t be. Is it really you Gary?
Before Fred was Hall of Fame catcher Gary Carter. Back in 1985, when Fred had just a small interest in the team, the Mets traded for Carter in the hopes that he would put the Mets over the top. Eventually, Carter did with the Mets winning the 1986 World Series. Notably, Carter started the game winning two out rally in the bottom of the 10th to allow the Mets to force a Game 7.
Gary: It’s really me Fred. I’m now the Ghost of Baseball Past.
Fred: Am I dead?
Gary: No, you’re not. I’m here to show you what things used to be like before you changed the way you did business with the Mets.
With that Gary, took a swing of the bat creating a cloud of dust and smoke all over the room. As the dust settled, the Mets found themselves back in a sold out Shea Stadium.
Fred: What a dump!
Gary: You didn’t always think so. In fact, you used to love coming here. Back in the 80s, Shea Stadium was the place to be. Those Mets teams were stacked with players like me, Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, and tonight’s starter Dwight Gooden.
Fred: Those Gooden starts were something special. No one could beat us then, and we knew it. We never could quite capture the magic from those teams again, but that was something special.
Gary: This is how things used to be. It was always this way. You did it again when you signed Mike Piazza, except you didn’t just sign him. You surrounded him with good players like Robin Ventura and Edgardo Alfonzo. That team came close. You did it again with Carlos Beltran. You spent the extra dollar to get a truly great player. You then added players like Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana to try to get it done. It didn’t work, but the fans came. More importantly, everyone respected you for it.
Fred: But they don’t understand.
Gary: Let’s see what happened next.
With a blink of Fred’s eye, Shea Stadium is just a memory. As he reopens his eyes, he is back in Citi Field as it was before it was fully renovated. The fans were angry with the team. It was one thing that the ballpark didn’t fully honor Mets history; it was another that the Mets let Jose Reyes walk in the offseason without so much as an offer. It was an uninspiring 88 loss win team that was seemingly going nowhere.
Fred: When did we put the Great Wall of Flushing back in? Where are all the fans?
Gary: You didn’t. It’s 2012.
Fred: That was an ugly time. Fans constantly complaining and booing. The team and I were personally cash strapped. I had no idea what our future was or could be. Worse yet, no one seemed to understand. The fans, the players, the press. No one. The whole thought of this time is just too much to bear. I can’t . . .
Before Fred could finish the sentence, he was hit in the head by a foul ball off the bat of Daniel Murphy. Next thing Fred knew, he was awake, with a headache back in his bed in Greenwich.
Fred: Man, I really have to lay off the Shake Shack late at night. It gives me the strangest dreams. And man, just remembering those days just gives me a headache. I never want to get back to that point . . .
As the words left Fred’s lips, there was a strange noise. Fred looked over, and he sees beloved former announcer and Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner in what appears to be old set of Kiner’s Korner.
Fred: Ralph?
Ralph: Well hi everybody it’s Ralph Kiner, the Ghost of Christmas Present, on Kiner’s Korner. Well the Mets are in the middle of the offseason after the team failed to win the Wild Card Game. While the team acted quickly and brought back Neil Walker and Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets offseason has been marked by inactivity. Recently, Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson stated the Mets were going to have to move a contract like Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson before they could sign additional players this offseason. We have Mets owner Fred Wilpon on to talk about it next.
Fred: Ralph?
Ralph: Welcome back to Kiner’s Korners. As you know Kiner’s Koners is sponsored by Rheingold – the Dry Beer!
Ralph: Hi Mr. Wilpon, welcome to Kiner’s Korners.
Fred: I’m not sure what exactly is happening here.
Ralph: Well, Mr. Wilpon, we’re here to talk about your team and what the 2017 roster will look like.
Fred: We’ve given Sandy free reign to do whatever he needs to do to put the best team on the field. We trust in his decision making, and we always demure to him on personnel decisions.
Ralph: Well Mr. Wilpon, there are not many that believe you. In fact, the fans will say that the team isn’t going to spend the money on the players like the Mets should. It reminds me back when I had won another home run title for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and I went to Branch Rickey to ask for a raise. During the meeting, Rickey denied me a raise saying, “We finished eighth with you, we can finish eighth without you.” From there of course, I was then traded to the Chicago Cubs. This is the same Chicago Cubs franchise that won their first World Series title since 1908. The Cubs were once defeated –
Fred: Okay, okay. No, we’re not spending any money until we move a contract. That’s just the way things work now. This isn’t the old days where Omar gets free reign.
Ralph: Well, the fans are angry the team isn’t spending money. And I remember as a player how much the team wanted to know the owner supported them. When the team had the support of ownership it had an effect in the clubhouse and the play on the field.
Fred: Let’s be honest. The fans will let me do whatever I want so long as we’re winning. With the team we have now, we’re going to fill the seats because we have Cespedes. We have free t-shirts. We get to hype up the starts of not just Matt Harvey, but also Noah Syndergaard. As for the players, the only thing they really care about is their salary.
Ralph: That’s not true. Here is a videotape of your captain David Wright.
A large screen appears on the set of Kiner’s Korner with an image of Wright at his home talking to Collins about the upcoming season.
Collins: I know it may be a little late, but I wanted to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas. And I wanted to let you know that we’re all pulling for you to get back out on that field.
David: It’s hard skip. I wake up in pain everyday. It was bad enough when it was just the stenosis, but now it is my neck too. I just spend all of my day rehabbing and working out. I do all these special exercises for my back and my neck. It’s almost 24 hours of pure hell. It’s made all the harder by the fact that every minute I spend working out is time away from my wife and daughter. Baseball has always been a sacrifice, and I love it. But it just gets harder and harder.
Collins: You know the whole team is behind you. If there is anything you ever need, you just have to ask. And if you feel as if you can’t go on, you’ll always have a place on my staff.
David: I can’t hang ’em up. Not yet. Not with this team. We’re so close. I’ve come so close to the World Series a few times in my career, and I’ve fallen short. I don’t know if I’ll ever feel right hanging it up without winning one.
Fred: This is costing me $20 million a year.
David: And it’s not just about me. I owe a World Series to Mets fans who have supported me my whole career. They’ve gone out and bought my jerseys. They’ve cheered for me. They’ve always been there for me. And more importantly, I owe it to the Wilpon family. I saw what happened with Reyes and the other players who left. They decided to keep me. They made me the face of the franchise and the team captain. I’ve loved being a Met, and the Wilpons made that possible.
Fred: I just never knew how much he cared and how appreciative he was.
Ralph: Time for another commercial break and word from our sponsor the Ghost of Christmas Future.
Everything turns to black like a television screen being turned off. At first, Fred sits there quietly unsure of what is happening. He then finds himself in a strange room with Darryl Hamilton wearing his black Mets jersey. The same jerseys the Wilpons wanted to help drum up fan interest and help increase revenues. At first, Hamilton says nothing. He just looks at Fred before gesturing for Fred to follow him.
Fred follows Darryl down a hallway. Eventually, an image of a badly beaten down Wright emerges. On the walls are different jerseys he wore in his career. A shelf displays all of his awards and his 2015 National League Pennant ring. Wright moves around the room but with great difficulty. Although still relatively young, he moves like an old man. He’s there with another person.
Woman: Look, this is not going to happen overnight. With the beating your body has taken you’re luck you’re even in position to walk.
David: I don’t care. I need you to get me to the point where I can dance again. There is nothing that is going to stop me from dancing at my daughter’s wedding.
Woman: Ok, but we need to take it slowly. You’ve had a number of injuries in your career, especially those last few. Doing things like dancing is going to come with some difficulty for you. The trick is to build everything up so you can do it again.
Fred: What, what happened to him?
Darryl only nods his head in the direction of the trophy case.
Fred: He never won? But we had Harvey and Syndergaard. We had Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz. We had Cespedes. Of course we won at least one. There is no way we let that core go without winning a World Series. Surely, we made a move to get that final piece at least one of those years.
David: On cold days like this, it really makes me wonder how wise it was sticking to the end of my contract rather than just medically retiring the way Albert Belle and Prince Fielder did. I really wonder if Prince has the same problems I have. Still, I would do it all over again because trying to win that ring was important not just for my career, the fans, and Fred.
Woman: What happened?
David: We were so close, but we shot ourselves in the foot in 2015. After that, we always just seemed one or two players short. We gave it the best we could, but it just wasn’t meant to be . . . .
As David drifts off, Darryl gestures for Fred to re-enter the dark hallway. The two make their way down before standing outside the Rotunda entrance to Citi Field. Nearby is a group of men putting up a few statues. In the parking lot adjacent to 126th Street, there are a number of moving vans.
Worker 1: Honestly, it is about time there was a Tom Seaver statue erected at Citi Field. I think adding the Piazza one as well was a nice touch.
Worker 2: Things have been a lot better around here with the new guys came in.
Worker 1: And ain’t no one going to miss the old group.
Worker 2: How can you? They let the whole thing fall apart.
Worker 1: Good riddance!
Fred: What is happening here? What old group? Who authorized these statues?
With that Fred began a dead sprint towards the entrance to the executive offices, but he was distracted by a commotion happening at McFadden’s. Despite wanting to get back to his office, Fred found himself drawn to the bar where he found a group of people in celebration.
Man: Shhh! It’s about to be on the television.
Reporter: After years of seeing homegrown players sign elsewhere, and the Mets having been inactive on the free agent market, Citi Field has become eerily reminiscent of Grant’s Tomb in the 1970s. With fan interest at a nadir and record low revenues for the team, it became time for a change.
Fred: Darryl! What are they talking about?
Man: This is a dream come true for me. As a little boy sitting int he Upper Deck at Shea Stadium, I never imagined I would be in the position I am here today. And yet, here I am.
Cheers spread through McFaddens making the sound from the televisions inaudible.
Man: Back in 1980, the late Nelson Doubleday purchased the New York Mets from the Payson family. From that day, a new era of Mets prosperity began with ownership investing not just in good baseball people, but also its players and its fans. My pledge to the Mets fans is to operate this club much in the same fashion as Mr. Doubleday, and with that, a new era of Mets prominence will begin.
As cheers fill the room and the bartenders try to keep up with the customers needing drinks, a bewildered Fred turns back to Darryl.
Fred: Darryl, what is happening with my team? Was it . . .
As Fred trails off, he can see a sullen Jeff Wilpon standing out on the sidewalk waiting for a driver to take him home. Before Jeff could get into the car, he is ambushed by a group of reporters. Instinctively, Jeff runs out to assist his son.
Reporter: How do you feel today?
Jeff: How do you expect me to feel? The thing that mattered most to my father is now gone.
Reporter: What message do you have for Mets fans?
Jeff: I’m not sure where you guys have been all these years. If you came to the park, we might’ve been able to improve the team and prevent this day from happening.
Fred: Jeff, don’t tell me you did it! Don’t tell me you sold my team!
Reporter: How do you think your father would feel about this moment?
Jeff: Look guys, it’s been a hard day in what has been a hard few years. I just want to go home to my family.
Fred: Jeff! Jeff! I’m over here! Jeff!
With Jeff being worn down by the questioning, and his being unable to hear his father scream, he enters the car. Initially, Fred heads toward Jeff while repeatedly asking him what happened with the Mets. With Jeff being unresponsive, and with Fred knowing he’s not going to be able to get to the door in time, he runs in front of the car in an attempt to stop it. The car pulls from the curb, makes contact with Fred, and everything goes black.
The sun begins to rise, and it begins to light Fred’s room in Greenwich. The sun shines in Fred’s eyes causing him to initially squint. When he realizes that a new day has begun, Fred eagerly jumps from his bed, and he checks his iPhone.
Fred: It’s December 25, 2016! I still own the team! The spirits have given me another chance!
Fred grabs his phone, and he calls his secretary to immediately set up a conference call with Collins, Alderson, and Wright.
Fred: I’m sorry to bother you on Christmas morning, but I felt like this couldn’t wait any longer. We have a window here, and we have to take advantage of it. Sandy, the shackles are off. You have everything you need at your disposal. We owe Terry the best team possible for him to lead the Mets back to the World Series. And we owe it to you David because you stuck by us when times were at their lowest. We can’t let you finish your career without winning a World Series. It wouldn’t be fair, and it wouldn’t be right.
Terry: Thank you, and God bless you Mr. Wilpon!
David: God bless us everyone!
With reports that the Mets do not expect they will be able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, and that was before Neil Walker accepted the $17.2 million qualifying offer, the question is how do you replace the irreplaceable? Here are some options:
FREE AGENTS
As explained in an earlier MMO article, a rejuvenated Gomez could help the Mets by continuing to play a good center field and by providing another right-handed bat in what protects to be a heavy left-handed Mets lineup.
After not getting a significant contract offer with a qualifying offer attached to him, he bet on himself taking a one year $8 million deal from the Texas Rangers.
Desmond was an All Star who hit .285/.335/.446 with 29 doubles, 22 homers, and 85 RBI. However, Desmond does have some red flags:
- He rated below average defensively in center field (-4.5 UZR);
- He hit only .269/.324/.429 off right-handed pitching; H
- He fell apart in the second half hitting .237/.283/.347; H
- He hit .330/.368/.497 at hitter friendly Ballpark at Arlington and .241/.305/.398 in the road; and
- He may get a qualifying offer.
Infamously, the Mets chose Jason Bay over him heading in the 2009 offseason. Bay would struggle immensely at Citi Field while Holliday would win a World Series with the Cardinals.
While Holliday has been injury prone the past few years, he has still hit. He has always been an average to below average left fielder, and the 37 year old is coming off his worst year out there. It is part of the reason he began transitioning to first base with the Cardinals. If the Mets were to sign him, he could fulfill the role the Mets envisioned Michael Cuddyer would have.
Of all the available free agents, Bautista is the one who is best suited to replicate the offensive production Cespedes provided the Mets. Over the past three seasons, Bautista has hit .259/.383/.508 while averaging 32 homers and 95 RBI. If you are looking for a difference maker in the lineup, Bautista fits the bill.
However, there are some reason to be hesitant to sign Bautista. First, he is a 36 year old coming off his worst season since 2009 (as per OPS+). Second, he has been in decline as an outfielder over the past three seasons. Third and most importantly, he is going to be expensive. It is anticipated Bautista will received a qualifying offer, and he reportedly wants 5 years $150 million in free agency.
Trumbo certainly enjoyed hitting at Camden Yards for a full season. Trumbo went from a career .251/.301/.460 hitter who averaged 26 homers to a .256/.316/.533 hitter who led the majors with 47 homers. Naturally, when there is a jump like that with a player, there are a number of reasons why a team like the Mets should shy away.
Throughout his career, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching. This isn’t exactly appealing when you consider he would be joining an outfield with three other left-handed hitters. Furthermore, he did most of his damage this past season at Camden Yards showing much of his career year was generated by his home ballpark. Lastly, Trumbo is really a 1B/DH masquerading as an outfielder.
Reuniting with Beltran certainly seems like it would be a stretch considering he has already stated his intentions that he wants to DH next year, and he wants to return to the Texas Rangers. It is certainly understandable considering he will be 40 next season, and he has been a below average right fielder the past three years.
Still, Beltran can his positive attributes. Over the past three years, Beltran has hit .271/.327/.468 while averaging 21 homers and 70 RBI. We know from his time with the Mets, he is great in the clubhouse, and he helps younger players with the preparation and conditioning aspect of the game. It is something Beltran did with both David Wright and Jose Reyes immediately upon joining the Mets. Finally, Beltran is one of the greatest postseason hitters of all time. For a team with World Series aspirations, Beltran could help on that front.
THE TIGERS
As luck would have it, the Padres rejected the Mets offer of Michael Fulmer for Upton leading the Mets to offer him in exchange for Cespedes. Once again, the Tigers are looking to trade an outfielder, and the Mets may have interest in a player like Upton.
Upton has always been a good hitter in his major league career. In his nine years as a starter, he is a .270/.349/.476 hitter who averages 24 homers and 77 RBI in his nine years as a starter. Generally speaking, he has never been a guy that will hurt you in the outfield even if he is coming off a poor year offensively. Between his offense, his defense, and his friendship with Wright, you could make a very good case why the Mets should purse Upton.
There is also over $110 million reasons why you would want to avoid Upton. If Upton were not to exercise he opt out clause, which he would use after the 2017 season, the Mets would be on the hook for the full amount of the remaining $110.625 million remaining on his contract. Typically speaking, the Mets have not shown the interest in adding contract like that to the payroll.
Now, Upton could also opt out of his contract, which would put the Mets in the same position as they are this offseason. They will likely be unable to re-sign him, and in return, all they can recoup for him is a compensatory first round draft pick. Compensatory draft picks are great when they become players like Fulmer who are real assets that can help the major league team. They are also suspect when they become players like Anthony Kay, who failed a physical and needs Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a professional pitch.
Over the last three seasons, Martinez has blossomed into a terrific hitter. In Detroit, he has hit .299/.357/.540 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. Up until this year, he has also been a solid outfielder. You can do a lot worse than Martinez in trying to replace Cespedes.
That’s part of the reason why he will be difficult to obtain. Next year is the final year of his contract that pays him $11.75 million. While the Tigers are looking to shed payroll, they will likely seek a king’s ransom in exchange for a player that has a very favorable contract for next season. With the Mets having traded away some many big pieces over the past two seasons, and with them being reluctant to trade players like Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith, it is hard to see them pulling off a trade for a cheap outfielder who has terrific production.
INTERNAL OPTIONS
As it stands right now, the Mets have two corner outfielders in Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson who are coming off 30 home run seasons. With them at the corners, it is possible the Mets feel as if they are already set in left and right field even with one of them having to change positions.
The Mets may even have more faith in their outfield as is with Michael Conforto. In his young career, he has shown the Mets glimpses of his being a brilliant hitter. He was undaunted as a rookie in 2015. He was perhaps the best hitter in baseball in April 2016. He responded to a demotion after a wrist injury and his slumping by hitting .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI in 17 August games in AAA. With Conforto having shown glimpses of what his true talent level is, and with him showing the willingness to put in the work, the Mets may very well gamble on Conforto in 2017.
The fact that Granderson and Conforto can also play center field gives the Mets options on a game to game basis. It allows them to put all three out there, and it allows them to sit one for rest or to avoid a tough left-handed pitcher to get Lagares’ glove in the outfield. Overall, the Mets may very well stay internal to replace Cespedes’ production. It is a gamble, and that gamble may be the difference between going to the postseason or staying home in 2017.
Editor’s Note: a version of this article was first published on Mets Merized Online
Right after the season was over, the Mets did the smart thing, and they picked up Jose Reyes option for the 2017 season. Reyes is a player that gives the Mets depth, and he provides insurance for some key positions.
Should David Wright go down again, we saw Reyes can handle playing third base. Should Asdrubal Cabrera have another injury plagued year, Reyes can spell him on a number of days in order to keep Cabrera fresh. With an offseason to work on it, Reyes can also make himself a capable defender at second base and quite possibly the outfield. Second base is interesting because the Mets do not know if Neil Walker can return or what Walker could provide with a surgically repaired back. With that in mind, there has been discussion about Reyes possibly being the everyday second baseman. He shouldn’t.
The main reason is Reyes has essentially become a much faster with less power version of Wilmer Flores at the plate.
Both players absolutely maul left-handed pitching while they are feeble hitters from the right-hand side of the plate. Without telling you who was who, here are their splits from the 2016 season:
| vs. RHP | vs. LHP | |
| Player A | .232/.289/.353 | .340/.383/.710 |
| Player B | .239/.293/.371 | .380/.456/.740 |
To show this is part of a larger trend, here are the numbers from the 2015 season as well:
| vs. RHP | vs. LHP | |
| Player A | .251/.279/.358 | .310/.355/.600 |
| Player B | .275/.309/.374 | .273/.311/.388 |
If you had trouble deciphering which one was Reyes and which one was Flores that is the point. If you thought Player A was Flores and Player B was Reyes, you were correct. After reviewing the numbers, wouldn’t it be fair to say that at least offensively Flores has become the better player?
Now, there are some caveats to this. In 2015, Reyes only played in 116 games due to injury and trade. In 2016, he only played in 60 games due to his suspension and his eventual release. When you have smaller sample sizes, you tend to see greater fluctuations in the statistics. It is an important caveat when you consider Reyes has largely been platoon neutral in his career. Naturally, you would want to rely upon the splits from a player’s entire 14 year career than from two abbreviated seasons.
However, you cannot ignore trends, especially trends from a player that is going to be turning 34 next season. In his four years since leaving the Mets, Reyes has been a .286/.334/.409 hitter who has averaged 29 doubles, four triples, nine homers, and 50 RBI with 27 stolen bases a season. Compare that to the .292/.341/.441 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, 11 triples, nine homers, and 47 RBI with 41 stolen bases during Reyes’ first tour of duty with the Mets. Fact is, Reyes is a different player than the one we knew.
And no, this isn’t a case of Reyes being a different player in New York. In his only year with the Marlins, he hit .287/.347/.433 with 37 doubles, 12 triples, 11 homers, and 57 RBI with 40 stolen bases. In Reyes’ first year with the Blue Jays, he hit .296/.353/.427 with 20 doubles, no triples, 1o homers, 37 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. That 2013 season with the Blue Jays was an injured plagued one for Reyes as he only played in 93 games. He hasn’t been the same player after that season becoming just a .279/.321/.400 hitter in the three subsequent years.
Overall, Reyes is still a talented player that has a lot to offer a team. However, Reyes no longer has the skills that made him an All Star caliber player. While he still has speed, he no longer has elite speed. While he can play the middle infield, he no longer has the range he once had. While he can still hit for some power, he no longer has the ability to consistently get on base. Long story short, Reyes is a player in decline. It’s what happens to players in their mid 30s.
Despite the decline, Reyes should be a valuable contributor to the Mets in 2017. His ability to play across the diamond and use his speed is a real asset. Still, you will get diminishing returns playing him everyday. You will notice the low OBP and his platoon splits. This is why Reyes needs to be a utility player for the Mets next season.
The biggest question mark heading into the 2017 season is who is going to play second base for the New York Mets. Neil Walker handled the job quite well, and there has been interest from both sides on a reunion. We should know more about the potential for a reunion after Monday’s deadline for Walker to either accept or to reject the $17.2 million qualifying offer. While that decision hangs in the balance, along with Walker’s return, the Mets have to investigate all options for the position. Here are some candidates:
INTERNAL OPTIONS
2016 Stats: .333/.345/.476, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 16 RBI, 33 G
For many the 27 year old Rivera is the natural choice to become the Mets second baseman should Walker depart in free agency. In Rivera’s time with the Mets, he showed the ability to square up the ball at the plate, hit the ball gap-to-gap with some power, and he played better than expected defensively. Moreover, when there was a vacancy at the position due to a number of injuries, Rivera rose from the pack, and he staked his claim. He was the second baseman in the Wild Card Game, and he got a huge double in the game (that went for naught).
Still, there are a number of holes in Rivera’s game. He is never going to draw enough walks to justify playing everyday. Over the course of a full season, his defense may not look as good as it did in a very short sample size. Moreover, he is not the type of hitter that will hit for enough power to overcome those deficiencies. Overall, Rivera has shown he can play in the major leagues. Unforunately, he has not shown enough for the Mets to give him the second base job.
2016 Stats: .267/.326/.443, 13 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB, 60 G
With the Mets having picked up Reyes’ option, we know he is going to be a part of the 2017 Mets. What we don’t know is exactly where he is going to play. Most likely, he is insurance for David Wright‘s back. However, if Walker should depart in free agency, he could move back to the middle infield and become the starting second baseman.
That is probably not the best idea for the Mets. Last year, Reyes had marked platoon splits. From the right-hand side of the plate, Reyes hit .380/.456/.740. From the left-hand side of the plate, Reyes only hit .239/.293/.371. This is more than just a small sample size. These numbers are emblematic of a downward trend for Reyes from the left-hand side of the plate since 2014. While the hope is Reyes can fix these issues with Kevin Long, much in the same way as Walker did with Long in 2016, it is far from a guarantee it will work out as well. Looking at the numbers, along with his diminishing range, Reyes best help to the Mets may just be a super-sub.
2016 Stats: .267/.319/.469, 14 2B, 16 HR, 49 RBI, SB, 103 G
Essentially, everything said about Reyes goes double for Flores. He absolutely kills left-handed pitching (.340/.383/.710) while struggling against right-handed pitching (.232/.289/.353). At 25, Flores still has upside, and he has power in his bat, but at this point in his career, those intangibles do not outweigh the struggles he has defensively. Like Rivera and Reyes, Flores is probably best suited to the bench.
2016 AAA Stats: .325/.390/.448, 27 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 117 G
With the rise of Amed Rosario, Cecchini is going to have to move to second base if the former first round pick is ever going to become a starter for the Mets at the major league level. It is fair to say Cecchini’s bat is there. He is a player that can work the count, and he can drive the ball from gap-to-gap. The hope is that as the 22 year old ages, some of those gappers become homers as he develops physically.
Therein lies the issue with Cecchini. Is he really read to play in the majors after just four games in September? Better yet, is he ready to play second base after not having played more than two consecutive days at the position in his professional career. Given the fact this Mets team has World Series aspirations, the answer to the question is most likely “no.” With that Cecchini is better suited to being the starting second baseman in AAA next year and awaiting his opportunity.
2016 Stats: .280/.336/.474, 30 2B, 3B, 23 HR, 62 RBI, 141 G
This is the most unlikely internal option to play second base for the Mets next season. He is signed through next year, and he has a reasonably 2018 option the Mets could exercise should Rosario not be ready to take over by then. The mentioning of Cabrera serves to acknowledge the reality that his range is subpar for the position, and with his knee injuries last year, we should not expect it to get any better. In fact, his range may eventually force the Mets to move him. It is also possible Rosario has another outstanding season in the minors, and he may force his way onto the Mets roster next year. Even if neither situation presents itself, moving Cabrera to second would give the Mets a number of options on the free agent and trade market.
FREE AGENTS
2016 Stats: .285/.335/.446, 29 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, 156 G
Desmond bet on himself when he took a one year deal from the Rangers, and he had an All Star season. However, it should be noted that came as an outfielder. It should also be noted Desmond has not played second base since his five games there in 2009. While the Mets could shift Cabrera to second to permit Desmond to return to short, it should be noted Desmond is an even worse defensive shortstop than Cabrera and Reyes.
The other issues with Desmond are the fact that he did most of his damage in the first half, and he did most of his damage at the Ballpark at Arlington. When you also consider the fact that he received a qualifying offer from the Rangers, the Mets would probably be better suited to looking elsewhere this offseason.
2016 Korean Stats: .330/.391/.558, 22 2B, 3 3B, 26 HR, 104 RBI, 118 G
With Korean players having succeeded in the major leagues the past few seasons, it is possible the Mets could be inclined to sign Hwang this offseason. Even with that said, under Sandy Alderson, the Mets have been reticent to attempt to sign foreign players to be everyday players for their major league club. Additionally, while Hwang has middle infield experience, it is at shortstop. In reality, he is more of a third baseman, and at 29 years old, it is difficult to gauge whether he could even make the transition to second.
2016 Stats: .252/.319/.396, 26 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 138 G
Yeah, this is never going to happen. Moving on.
That’s just the issue – the middle infield market really is Walker and then no one else. With that in mind, the Mets best option might just be bringing back Walker and hoping his surgically repaired back can withstand the rigors of playing everyday. If not, the Mets are going to have to turn to some type of platoon that features a number of players we do not know can handle the position defensively, and almost all of whom hit much better against left-handed pitching.
There are many factors to consider when voting for a candidate today. At this point, they have all be regurgitated and discussed at length, and hopefully, you have made your decision based upon sound criteria. However, if you are looking for a reason to change your mind or reason to have your mind made up for you, or you really want to base this important decision on how the Mets have fared with a Republican or a Democrat in office, you are in luck. Here is how the Mets have performed under each President in their 54 year history:
| President | Seasons | Record | Win % |
| John F. Kennedy | 1962 – 1963 | 91 – 231 | 0.283 |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | 1964 – 1968 | 303 – 506 | 0.375 |
| Richard M Nixon | 1969 – 1974* | 478 – 433 | 0.525 |
| Gerald R. Ford | 1974* – 1976 | 263 – 277 | 0.487 |
| Jimmy Carter | 1977 – 1980 | 260 – 388 | 0.401 |
| Ronald Reagan | 1981 – 1988 | 662 – 573 | 0.536 |
| George H.W. Bush | 1989 – 1992 | 386 – 423 | 0.477 |
| William Jefferson Clinton | 1993 – 2000 | 562 – 506 | 0.526 |
| George W. Bush | 2001 – 2008 | 651 – 643 | 0.503 |
| Barack Obama | 2009 – 2016 | 630-666 | 0.486 |
* Nixon resigned from office August 9, 1974
Here are the cumulative results:
| Party | Record | Win% |
| Democrat | 1,846 – 2,297 | 0.446 |
| Republican | 2,440 – 2,349 | 0.510 |
Here are some interesting Mets postseason facts when there was a Democrat or Republican in the White House.
Democrat Postseason Facts
- The two times the Mets have been to back-to-back postseasons was when there was a Democrat in the White House (1999 & 2000 – Clinton; 2015 & 2016 – Obama)
- The Mets have only had an NLCS MVP when there was a Democrat in the White House (Mike Hampton – 2000; Daniel Murphy – 2015)
- The Mets have only won the division once (2015) with a Democrat in office. The other three postseason appearances were as the Wild Card.
- The Mets have appeared in four total postseasons and two World Series. The Mets are 21-17 in postseason games with the following records per round:
Wild Card Game 0 – 1 NLDS 9 – 4 NLCS 10 – 4 World Series 2 – 8
Republican Postseason Facts
- The Mets have won their only two World Series with a Republican in office (1969 – Nixon; 1986 – Reagan)
- In all five of their appearances in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets were the National Leauge East champions.
- In three of the five appearances, the Mets won 100+ games with the high water mark coming in 1986 with 108 wins
- In four of the five seasons the Mets appeared in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets had the best record in the National League (1973 is the exception). In two of those seasons (1986 & 2006), the Mets had the best record in baseball.
- In total, the Mets have appeared in five postseason and three World Series. The Mets are 30-20 in those postseason games with the following records per round:
NLDS 3 – 0 NLCS 16 – 12 World Series 11 – 8
If you wish to mainly focus on player performance over how the team has fared during each administration, Mets players have received more awards during Republican leadership:
Cy Young Award
- Republican 4 (Tom Seaver 1969, 1973, & 1975; Dwight Gooden 1985);
- Democrat 1 (R.A. Dickey 2012)
Rookie of the Year
- Republican 3 (Seaver 1967; Jon Matlack 1972; Darryl Strawberry 1983; Gooden 1984)
- Democrat 1 (Jacob deGrom 2014)
Rolaids Relief Man
- Republican 2 (John Franco 1990; Armando Benitez 2001)
- Democrat 0
Sports Illustrated Man of the Year
- Republican 1 (Seaver 1969)
- Democrat 0
Gold Gloves
- Republican 14 (Tommie Agee 1970; Bud Harrelson 1971; Keith Hernandez 1983 – 1988; Ron Darling 1989; Carlos Beltran 2006 – 2008; David Wright 2007 – 2008)
- Democrat 6 (Doug Flynn 1980; Rey Ordonez 1997 – 1999; Robin Ventura 1999; Juan Lagares 2014)
Silver Sluggers
- Republican 14 (Hernandez 1984; Gary Carter 1985 – 1986; Strawberry 1988; Howard Johnson1989 & 1991; Mike Piazza 2001 – 2002; Jose Reyes 2006; Beltran 2006 – 2007; Wright 2007 – 2008)
- Democrat 5 (Piazza 1998 – 2000; Edgardo Alfonzo 1999; Hampton 2000)
Roberto Clemente Award
- Republican 2 (Carter 1989; Carlos Delgado 2006)
- Democrat 2 (Al Leiter 2000; Curtis Granderson 2016)
From the Front Office side, Republicans have a 2-1 edge in executive of the year with Johnny Murphy winning in 1969, Frank Cashen winning in 1986, and Sandy Alderson winning in 2015. Baseball America named the Mets the top organization in baseball once in a Republican (1984) and once in a Democratic (1995) term.
As a general rule of thumb, the Mets and their players have performed better with a Republican in office. As you enter the voting booths today, take that as you will. Hopefully, you have more sound criteria for choosing your candidate.
Before the 2015 offseason, the qualifying offer system was seen as a gentleman’s agreement. Teams would offer it, and players would agree to decline it and seek a multi-year contract in free agency. However, over time that agreement started to become a big issue for players. Teams began to shy away from signing players who received qualifying offers because they did not want to lose a first round draft pick. This began reducing the market for the proverbial second-tier free agent, which in turn, also reduced the size of the player’s contract. The end result was Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters, and Brett Anderson accepting the qualifying offer.
It probably turned out to be the right move as those players were not likely to receive long-term deals in free agency. If they were to receive an offer, the total contract value most likely wasn’t going to reach the $15.8 million, they were going to receive by accepting the offer. The case in point on this was Ian Desmond having to accept a one year $8 million contract from the Texas Rangers. Seeing the issues with these three players, it is increasingly more likely that players will accept qualifying offers this offseason.
It is exactly why the Mets cannot offer Neil Walker the qualifying offer.
Under normal circumstances offering Walker a qualifying offer would be seen as a given. Walker was coming off a career year at both the plate and in the field. He matched his career high in homers and set a career high in slugging percentage. He even began hitting well from the right side almost doubling his career home run total as a right-handed batter. In the field, Walker posted his best ever UZR (by a long shot) and his best ever DRS. Overall, Walker was at his absolute best in every part of the game in the 2016 season. Given the very weak free agent market, he was definitively going to be the best second baseman on the market, and he was set to cash-in.
He’s not now. During this career best season, Walker had periods where he had numbness in his feet related to a herniated disc. Even with the numbness, Walker was hitting .389/.450/.667 with six homers and 10 RBI in 18 August games. He was having his best month of the season while he was trying to help the Mets rally back to the postseason. Despite having his best stretch all season long and the Mets needing his bat in the lineup and glove on the field, Walker had to have season ending back surgery. At the time, it was seen as a critical blow to not just the Mets postseason chances, but also to Walker’s future earnings in free agency.
The main issue with Walker is you don’t know what he is going to be next season. Will the microdiscectomy surgery decrease his mobility in the field? Will the surgery sap him of some of his power at the plate? Will he full recover and return to the numbers he was at during the 2016 season? We do not know the answer to any of these questions. However, with Walker entering his age 31 season, there should be some expectation of decline even without the back surgery.
Now, these questions shouldn’t preclude the Mets from attempting to bring Walker back next season. He should be a better option at second base next year than Gavin Cecchini, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, or T.J. Rivera. However, he is not $16 million better than those options. That $16 million matters in an offseason where players like Jacob deGrom are entering their arbitration years, the Mets picking up the $13 million option on Jay Bruce, and Yoenis Cespedes likely to be a free agent after presumably opting out of his contract. If Walker was to accept the qualifying offer, which is very likely at this point, it could mean the end of Cespedes in a Mets uniform.
As we already know, the Mets have a number of players in place who can step up and take over the second base position should Walker leave in free agency. However, as we already know, the Mets cannot replace Cespedes’ bat in the lineup. When the risk is Cespedes, and you really don’t know what Walker can contribute next season, it’s really not much of a debate. The Mets cannot make a qualifying offer to Walker.
Of with this being a bad idea, we know that could only mean one thing. The Mets are going to absolutely extend Walker a qualifying offer today.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online