Jose Reyes

Who Could Replace a Suspended Jeurys Familia?

With Jeurys Familia having been arrested under suspicion of domestic violence, there are a number of questions that need to be asked and answered.  While it may seem tactless, at some point, we need to ask the question of how does this arrest impact the Mets organization.

Over the past two seasons, Familia has been leaned on heavily by Terry Collins, and Familia has responded.  In his two years as the Mets closer, Familia has made more appearances, converted more saves, pitched more innings, and finished more games than any other closer in Major League Baseball.  He has at least appeared to be the rare durable closer that can be relied upon year in and year out.

Many times Familia has not been given much of a margin of error.  For far too many stretches in 2015 and 2016, the Mets have found themselves desperate for offense putting a ton of pressure on their starters and their best relievers.  This past season Familia and Addison Reed combined to be the best 8-9 combination in all of baseball.  With the possibility of Yoenis Cespedes leaving in free agency, the uncertainty of the health of Neil Walker and whether he can return next season, and the myriad of other offensive question marks, the bullpen is once again going to be of great importance in 2017.

That’s where things get tricky with Familia.  While he has stated he is not guilty of the crimes, we have seen Major League Baseball levy suspensions for players regardless of criminal charges being filed or in the absence of a conviction.  The police never filed charges against Aroldis Chapman, and still he was suspended 30 games.  The charges against Jose Reyes were dropped, and he was suspended for 51 games.  If a Major League Baseball investigation finds Familia committed an act of domestic violence, it is possible he could miss 30 or more games to start the season.

With Reed, the Mets do have an internal option to close.  From 2012 – 2014, Reed served as a closer for the White Sox and the Diamondbacks.  In that time, he averaged 34 saves per season.  While his 4.22 ERA and 1.217 WHIP left a lot to be desired, it is important to note Reed has been a different pitcher since coming to the Mets.  As a Met, he has a 1.84 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP.  Certainly, Reed has shown the ability in the past to be a closer, and with the Mets Reed has shown the ability to be a dominant reliever.  Therefore, from a closing standpoint, the Mets have an internal option.

The real issue becomes who takes Reed’s spot in the bullpen.

Hansel Robles has shown a lot of promise.  He has struck out 10.0 batters per nine in his career, and he is effective getting left-handed batters out.  However, he is also mercurial in his performance, and slotting him into the eighth inning takes away one of his key attributes which is he is a guy that you can use for multiple innings or to get a big out.

Josh Smoker had great strikeout numbers in both the minors and in the majors this season.  In fact, he struck out 14.7 batters per nine.  However, he has severe reverse splits, and each time Collins asked him to pitch more than one inning this year, he allowed a home run in his second inning of work.

Seth Lugo could be an inspired choice to take over the eighth inning.  As we saw this season, the Mets envisioned his future role with the team coming out of the bullpen, and Lugo was effective in his limited time out of the pen for the Mets.  However, we also saw he was an effective starter, and with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz coming off season ending surgeries, we were reminded you cannot have enough starting pitching depth.

There are minor league pitchers such as Paul Sewald who could be effective.  However, with the Mets not turning to them in September, it is highly unlikely they will rely on them to be the seventh or eighth inning reliever to start the season.  It is further unlikely with him being subjected to the Rule 5 Draft.  It is very likely someone will pick him up in the draft.

From there, the Mets do not have many internal options.  In reality, this means with Familia potentially missing a significant portion of the season, the Mets will likely have to look on the free agent market to fill in the gap.

The first name that comes to mind is Fernando Salas.  In his limited time with the Mets, he was very effective.  In fact, he had the same reversal of fortune that Reed did in 2015.  Still, there is caution in over relying on a pitcher with a career 3.64 ERA to replace one of your two best bullpen arms.

There are a number of intriguing set-up men on the free agent market.  There is Joe Blanton who had a 2.48 ERA in 75 appearances for the Dodgers.  Former Met Joe Smith has been a good reliever for 10 years, and during the stretch drive with the Cubs this year, he had a a 2.51 ERA in 16 appearances.  Brad Ziegler is coming off a terrific year as a closer for the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox.  There are a bunch of other names as well.  However, as we have seen as recently as last year with Antonio Bastardo, many middle reliever performances tend to fluctuate year to year.  This leaves you wondering not only how to replace that player’s role in the bullpen, but also how to get out from under the contract.

Therefore, if you are going to add a reliever you should go after the dominant closer in free agency.  While there is debate over whether or not they are more of a sure thing, we do know there are three great closers available this offseason.

We can pick nits over who is better among the trio of Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon.  However, the one underlying truth with any of those three is if you have one of them, you have a dominant closer in your bullpen.  As we have seen with Familia over the past two seasons, you are lucky to have any of these dominant closers.  With one of those three joining Reed, and eventually Familia, the Mets would have a bullpen similar to the one the Indians have rode all the way to the World Series.

The Mets will also have a lot of money invested in their bullpen.  According to the Los Angeles Times, it is believed that Jansen will not only receive and reject the $17.2 million qualifying offer, but also he will eventually sign a contract surpassing Jonathan Papelbon‘s then record setting five year $50 million contract.  With Jansen on the free agent market, and big budget teams like the Dodgers chasing after him, there is no telling how high the bidding will go for him.

For their part, Chapman and Melancon cannot receive qualifying offers as a result of them being traded in-season.  At least conceptually, that could drive up their prices as well because more teams may be interested in them because they will not have to forfeit a draft pick to obtain them.  Teams like the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, and who knows who else could be interested leading to each of them getting a huge contract.

This begs the question whether the Mets can even afford to pursue a big time closer.  Likely, they cannot.

According to Mets Merized Online, the Mets will have approximately $108 million wrapped up in 18 players who should make the Opening Day roster.  That number does not include money to re-sign Cespedes, Walker, Jerry Blevins, Bartolo Colon, or the aforementioned Salas.  If the Mets were to re-sign these players, or players of similar value to replace them, the Mets payroll is going to go well over $160 million.  Accoring to Spotrac, the Mets finished the 2016 season with a $156 million payroll.  It should be noted this amount does not include any insurance reimbursements related to David Wright‘s season ending neck surgery.

With that in mind, the Mets likely do not have the budget necessary to add a Chapman, Jansen, or Melancon.  If the Mets were to add one of them, it is likely to come at the expense of Cespedes or Walker.  While having a dominant trio to close out ballgames in enticing, the Mets would first need offense to get enough runs to give that bullpen a lead.  This puts a greater priority on Cespedes and Walker.

In the long run, the Mets best bet is to play out the entire process with Familia.  If there is a suspension, Reed can be an effective closer.  Re-signing Salas and/or bringing in a Ziegler would help as well.  It would behoove the Mets to roll the dice on a reclamation project like a Greg Holland or a Drew Storen because in reality that is the position the Mets are in budget-wise.

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Mets Have Payroll Concerns Already

On October 29, 2010, in the wake of the Madoff scandal, Sandy Alderson took over as the Mets General Manager. Alderson inherited a team with some big stars like Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, and David Wright. With that he also inherited a team who finished the 2010 season with a hefty $126 million payroll, which ranked sixth in the major leagues. Due to some backloaded contracts reaching their expiration, the 2011 Opening Day payroll was actually inflated to $143 million.

Alderson went to work dismantling a team that was disappointing on the field in what was the beginning of a real rebuilding process. Luis Castillo was released before the season started. Oliver Perez was not too far behind him. Getting rid of the underperforming players the fans hated was the easy part. The hard part was what ensued.

The Mets first traded Francisco Rodriguez, who was getting dangerously close to having an expensive $17.5 million option vest. Then he traded Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler. Surprisingly, Alderson didn’t trade Jose Reyes, who was the National League leader in batting average. Instead, he would let Reyes become a free agent, and he would recoup a draft pick when Reyes signed a $106 million contract with the Marlins.

And just like that what was once a $143 million payroll became a $95 million payroll in a little more than a year. In subsequent years, the Mets would let Johan Santana‘s contract expire and not reinvest the money. They would release Jason Bay, and again re-invest the money. Then the Mets would shop R.A. Dickey after he won the Cy Young Award.  They obtained Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud in exchange for him which was a sure sign the Mets were more invested in rebuilding than contending.

It was also a sign that the Mets were cash strapped due to the Madoff scandal. The payroll would reach its nadir in 2o14 when it was actually $85 million, which ranked 21st in the major leagues. A bewildered and frankly angry fan base was left wondering when, if ever, the Wilpons were going to permit the Mets to have a payroll commensurate with their standing as a big market major league franchise.

Now, over the past two seasons, the Mets payroll has gone from $85 million in 2014 to $101 million to start the 2015 season. In that offseason, the Mets actually went out and signed Michael Cuddyer to help them become a more complete team. When Cuddyer faltered and David Wright would suffer from spinal stenosis, the Mets made moves and added payroll. The team first traded for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe (even if the Braves paid part of their salary). The Mets then acquired Yoenis Cespedes and what was a left of his $10.5 million contract. In 2015, the Mets spent a little more, but more importantly they spent what they needed to spend to compete.

In 2016, the Mets initially put out signs they were not moving off their roughly $100 million payroll when they signed Alejandro De Aza to platoon with Juan Lagares in center. It was perceived as a sign the Mets were not going to spend; it was a sign they were not willing to go the extra mile to get Cespedes. But then something happened. Cespedes didn’t find that massive deal on the free agent market. Instead, he re-signed with the Mets for $27.5 million in 2016. After 2016, Cespedes had the option to opt out of the remaining two years $47.5 million left on his contract.

With the Mets paying Cespedes a hefty salary to start the season, the Mets Opening Day payroll rose all the way to $135 million. Before Cespedes was re-signed, there was some doubt about whether it was really the insurance on Wright’s contract that allowed them to make those in-season moves, the re-signing of Cespedes calmed down a fan base that worried when or if the Mets would be willing to spend. Better yet, when the Mets had some issues scoring runs, they went out and traded for Jay Bruce.

Surprisingly now, we are back at the point of wondering if the Mets are willing to spend. The $135 million payroll was a positive step, but it is still less than the first payroll Alderson had with the Mets, and it was only ranked 15th in the majors. Cespedes is a free agent, and no one is quite sure if the Mets will re-sign him, look to acquire a big name free agent like Jose Bautista, or if they are going to stick with the Michael Conforto–Curtis Granderson-Bruce outfield. The Mets also have a number of other areas to address this offseason.

The first step was Neil Walker accepting the $17.2 million qualifying offer. With that, according to ESPN‘s Adam Rubin, the Mets current payroll obligations are $124 million. That is just $10 million under what the 2015 Opening Day Payroll was. If the Mets were to re-sign Cespedes, or another big name free agent, the payroll is going to go well past the $135 million mark.

The problem is the Mets need to go even further than that. Not only do they need Cespedes, or a reasonable facsimile, they also need to re-sign Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas, or again, a reasonable facsimile thereof. The Mets may also want to add another backup catcher given Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury concerns, Rene Rivera‘s lack of offense, and Kevin Plawecki having two disappointing seasons. The Mets may also want to sign a veteran starter considering the health issues of their rotation and Bartolo Colon having signed with the Braves this past week. There’s a lot the Mets need to address here, and it isn’t likely that $10 million is going to cover all of it.

So again, we are back at the point of wondering how far the Mets are willing to go to compete. Will they have a payroll in the upper half of all of baseball? Do they have the funds to spend like a big market club? At this point, no one knows the answers to these questions. While Mets fans may be apprehensive, it is too soon to to pass judgment. That time will come when we see how the Mets handle the Cespedes situation.

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The Non-Cespedes Mets Outfield Options

With reports that the Mets do not expect they will be able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, and that was before Neil Walker accepted the $17.2 million qualifying offer, the question is how do you replace the irreplaceable?  Here are some options:

FREE AGENTS

Carlos Gomez

As explained in an earlier MMO article, a rejuvenated Gomez could help the Mets by continuing to play a good center field and by providing another right-handed bat in what protects to be a heavy left-handed Mets lineup.

Ian Desmond

After not getting a significant contract offer with a qualifying offer attached to him, he bet on himself taking a one year $8 million deal from the Texas Rangers.

Desmond was an All Star who hit .285/.335/.446 with 29 doubles, 22 homers, and 85 RBI.   However, Desmond does have some red flags:

  1. He rated below average defensively in center field (-4.5 UZR);
  2. He hit only .269/.324/.429 off right-handed pitching; H
  3. He fell apart in the second half hitting .237/.283/.347; H
  4. He hit .330/.368/.497 at hitter friendly Ballpark at Arlington and .241/.305/.398 in the road; and
  5. He may get a qualifying offer.

Matt Holliday

Infamously, the Mets chose Jason Bay over him heading in the 2009 offseason. Bay would struggle immensely at Citi Field while Holliday would win a World Series with the Cardinals.

While Holliday has been injury prone the past few years, he has still hit. He has always been an average to below average left fielder, and the 37 year old is coming off his worst year out there. It is part of the reason he began transitioning to first base with the Cardinals. If the Mets were to sign him, he could fulfill the role the Mets envisioned Michael Cuddyer would have.

Jose Bautista

Of all the available free agents, Bautista is the one who is best suited to replicate the offensive production Cespedes provided the Mets.  Over the past three seasons, Bautista has hit .259/.383/.508 while averaging 32 homers and 95 RBI.  If you are looking for a difference maker in the lineup, Bautista fits the bill.

However, there are some reason to be hesitant to sign Bautista.  First, he is a 36 year old coming off his worst season since 2009 (as per OPS+).  Second, he has been in decline as an outfielder over the past three seasons.  Third and most importantly, he is going to be expensive.  It is anticipated Bautista will received a qualifying offer, and he reportedly wants 5 years $150 million in free agency.

Mark Trumbo

Trumbo certainly enjoyed hitting at Camden Yards for a full season.  Trumbo went from a career .251/.301/.460 hitter who averaged 26 homers to a .256/.316/.533 hitter who led the majors with 47 homers.  Naturally, when there is a jump like that with a player, there are a number of reasons why a team like the Mets should shy away.

Throughout his career, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching.  This isn’t exactly appealing when you consider he would be joining an outfield with three other left-handed hitters.  Furthermore, he did most of his damage this past season at Camden Yards showing much of his career year was generated by his home ballpark.  Lastly, Trumbo is really a 1B/DH masquerading as an outfielder.

Carlos Beltran

Reuniting with Beltran certainly seems like it would be a stretch considering he has already stated his intentions that he wants to DH next year, and he wants to return to the Texas Rangers.  It is certainly understandable considering he will be 40 next season, and he has been a below average right fielder the past three years.

Still, Beltran can his positive attributes.  Over the past three years, Beltran has hit .271/.327/.468 while averaging 21 homers and 70 RBI.  We know from his time with the Mets, he is great in the clubhouse, and he helps younger players with the preparation and conditioning aspect of the game.  It is something Beltran did with both David Wright and Jose Reyes immediately upon joining the Mets.  Finally, Beltran is one of the greatest postseason hitters of all time.  For a team with World Series aspirations, Beltran could help on that front.

THE TIGERS

Justin Upton

As luck would have it, the Padres rejected the Mets offer of Michael Fulmer for Upton leading the Mets to offer him in exchange for Cespedes.  Once again, the Tigers are looking to trade an outfielder, and the Mets may have interest in a player like Upton.

Upton has always been a good hitter in his major league career.  In his nine years as a starter, he is a .270/.349/.476 hitter who averages 24 homers and 77 RBI in his nine years as a starter.  Generally speaking, he has never been a guy that will hurt you in the outfield even if he is coming off a poor year offensively.  Between his offense, his defense, and his friendship with Wright, you could make a very good case why the Mets should purse Upton.

There is also over $110 million reasons why you would want to avoid Upton.  If Upton were not to exercise he opt out clause, which he would use after the 2017 season, the Mets would be on the hook for the full amount of the remaining $110.625 million remaining on his contract.  Typically speaking, the Mets have not shown the interest in adding contract like that to the payroll.

Now, Upton could also opt out of his contract, which would put the Mets in the same position as they are this offseason.  They will likely be unable to re-sign him, and in return, all they can recoup for him is a compensatory first round draft pick.  Compensatory draft picks are great when they become players like Fulmer who are real assets that can help the major league team.  They are also suspect when they become players like Anthony Kay, who failed a physical and needs Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a professional pitch.

J.D. Martinez

Over the last three seasons, Martinez has blossomed into a terrific hitter.  In Detroit, he has hit .299/.357/.540 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI.  Up until this year, he has also been a solid outfielder.  You can do a lot worse than Martinez in trying to replace Cespedes.

That’s part of the reason why he will be difficult to obtain.  Next year is the final year of his contract that pays him $11.75 million.  While the Tigers are looking to shed payroll, they will likely seek a king’s ransom in exchange for a player that has a very favorable contract for next season.  With the Mets having traded away some many big pieces over the past two seasons, and with them being reluctant to trade players like Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith, it is hard to see them pulling off a trade for a cheap outfielder who has terrific production.

INTERNAL OPTIONS

As it stands right now, the Mets have two corner outfielders in Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson who are coming off 30 home run seasons.  With them at the corners, it is possible the Mets feel as if they are already set in left and right field even with one of them having to change positions.

The Mets may even have more faith in their outfield as is with Michael Conforto.  In his young career, he has shown the Mets glimpses of his being a brilliant hitter.  He was undaunted as a rookie in 2015.  He was perhaps the best hitter in baseball in April 2016.  He responded to a demotion after a wrist injury and his slumping by hitting .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI in 17 August games in AAA.  With Conforto having shown glimpses of what his true talent level is, and with him showing the willingness to put in the work, the Mets may very well gamble on Conforto in 2017.

The fact that Granderson and Conforto can also play center field gives the Mets options on a game to game basis.  It allows them to put all three out there, and it allows them to sit one for rest or to avoid a tough left-handed pitcher to get Lagares’ glove in the outfield.  Overall, the Mets may very well stay internal to replace Cespedes’ production.  It is a gamble, and that gamble may be the difference between going to the postseason or staying home in 2017.

Editor’s Note: a version of this article was first published on Mets Merized Online

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Jose Reyes Is A Utility Player

Right after the season was over, the Mets did the smart thing, and they picked up Jose Reyes option for the 2017 season.  Reyes is a player that gives the Mets depth, and he provides insurance for some key positions.

Should David Wright go down again, we saw Reyes can handle playing third base.  Should Asdrubal Cabrera have another injury plagued year, Reyes can spell him on a number of days in order to keep Cabrera fresh.  With an offseason to work on it, Reyes can also make himself a capable defender at second base and quite possibly the outfield.  Second base is interesting because the Mets do not know if Neil Walker can return or what Walker could provide with a surgically repaired back.  With that in mind, there has been discussion about Reyes possibly being the everyday second baseman.  He shouldn’t.

The main reason is Reyes has essentially become a much faster with less power version of Wilmer Flores at the plate.

Both players absolutely maul left-handed pitching while they are feeble hitters from the right-hand side of the plate.  Without telling you who was who, here are their splits from the 2016 season:

vs. RHP vs. LHP
Player A .232/.289/.353 .340/.383/.710
Player B .239/.293/.371 .380/.456/.740

To show this is part of a larger trend, here are the numbers from the 2015 season as well:

vs. RHP vs. LHP
Player A .251/.279/.358 .310/.355/.600
Player B .275/.309/.374 .273/.311/.388

If you had trouble deciphering which one was Reyes and which one was Flores that is the point.  If you thought Player A was Flores and Player B was Reyes, you were correct.  After reviewing the numbers, wouldn’t it be fair to say that at least offensively Flores has become the better player?

Now, there are some caveats to this.  In 2015, Reyes only played in 116 games due to injury and trade.  In 2016, he only played in 60 games due to his suspension and his eventual release.  When you have smaller sample sizes, you tend to see greater fluctuations in the statistics.  It is an important caveat when you consider Reyes has largely been platoon neutral in his career.  Naturally, you would want to rely upon the splits from a player’s entire 14 year career than from two abbreviated seasons.

However, you cannot ignore trends, especially trends from a player that is going to be turning 34 next season.  In his four years since leaving the Mets, Reyes has been a .286/.334/.409 hitter who has averaged 29 doubles, four triples, nine homers, and 50 RBI with 27 stolen bases a season.  Compare that to the .292/.341/.441 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, 11 triples, nine homers, and 47 RBI with 41 stolen bases during Reyes’ first tour of duty with the Mets.  Fact is, Reyes is a different player than the one we knew.

And no, this isn’t a case of Reyes being a different player in New York.  In his only year with the Marlins, he hit .287/.347/.433 with 37 doubles, 12 triples, 11 homers, and 57 RBI with 40 stolen bases.  In Reyes’ first year with the Blue Jays, he hit .296/.353/.427 with 20 doubles, no triples, 1o homers, 37 RBI, and 15 stolen bases.  That 2013 season with the Blue Jays was an injured plagued one for Reyes as he only played in 93 games.  He hasn’t been the same player after that season becoming just a .279/.321/.400 hitter in the three subsequent years.

Overall, Reyes is still a talented player that has a lot to offer a team.  However, Reyes no longer has the skills that made him an All Star caliber player.  While he still has speed, he no longer has elite speed.  While he can play the middle infield, he no longer has the range he once had.  While he can still hit for some power, he no longer has the ability to consistently get on base.  Long story short, Reyes is a player in decline.  It’s what happens to players in their mid 30s.

Despite the decline, Reyes should be a valuable contributor to the Mets in 2017.  His ability to play across the diamond and use his speed is a real asset.  Still, you will get diminishing returns playing him everyday.  You will notice the low OBP and his platoon splits.  This is why Reyes needs to be a utility player for the Mets next season.

 

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Mets Second Base Options

The biggest question mark heading into the 2017 season is who is going to play second base for the New York Mets.  Neil Walker handled the job quite well, and there has been interest from both sides on a reunion.  We should know more about the potential for a reunion after Monday’s deadline for Walker to either accept or to reject the $17.2 million qualifying offer.  While that decision hangs in the balance, along with Walker’s return, the Mets have to investigate all options for the position.  Here are some candidates:

INTERNAL OPTIONS

T.J. Rivera

2016 Stats: .333/.345/.476, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 16 RBI, 33 G

For many the 27 year old Rivera is the natural choice to become the Mets second baseman should Walker depart in free agency.  In Rivera’s time with the Mets, he showed the ability to square up the ball at the plate, hit the ball gap-to-gap with some power, and he played better than expected defensively.  Moreover, when there was a vacancy at the position due to a number of injuries, Rivera rose from the pack, and he staked his claim.  He was the second baseman in the Wild Card Game, and he got a huge double in the game (that went for naught).

Still, there are a number of holes in Rivera’s game.  He is never going to draw enough walks to justify playing everyday.  Over the course of a full season, his defense may not look as good as it did in a very short sample size.  Moreover, he is not the type of hitter that will hit for enough power to overcome those deficiencies.  Overall, Rivera has shown he can play in the major leagues.  Unforunately, he has not shown enough for the Mets to give him the second base job.

Jose Reyes

2016 Stats: .267/.326/.443, 13 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB, 60 G

With the Mets having picked up Reyes’ option, we know he is going to be a part of the 2017 Mets.  What we don’t know is exactly where he is going to play.  Most likely, he is insurance for David Wright‘s back.  However, if Walker should depart in free agency, he could move back to the middle infield and become the starting second baseman.

That is probably not the best idea for the Mets.  Last year, Reyes had marked platoon splits.  From the right-hand side of the plate, Reyes hit .380/.456/.740.  From the left-hand side of the plate, Reyes only hit .239/.293/.371.  This is more than just a small sample size.  These numbers are emblematic of a downward trend for Reyes from the left-hand side of the plate since 2014.  While the hope is Reyes can fix these issues with Kevin Long, much in the same way as Walker did with Long in 2016, it is far from a guarantee it will work out as well.  Looking at the numbers, along with his diminishing range, Reyes best help to the Mets may just be a super-sub.

Wilmer Flores

2016 Stats: .267/.319/.469, 14 2B, 16 HR, 49 RBI, SB, 103 G

Essentially, everything said about Reyes goes double for Flores.  He absolutely kills left-handed pitching (.340/.383/.710) while struggling against right-handed pitching (.232/.289/.353).  At 25, Flores still has upside, and he has power in his bat, but at this point in his career, those intangibles do not outweigh the struggles he has defensively.  Like Rivera and Reyes, Flores is probably best suited to the bench.

Gavin Cecchini

2016 AAA Stats: .325/.390/.448, 27 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 117 G

With the rise of Amed Rosario, Cecchini is going to have to move to second base if the former first round pick is ever going to become a starter for the Mets at the major league level.  It is fair to say Cecchini’s bat is there.  He is a player that can work the count, and he can drive the ball from gap-to-gap.  The hope is that as the 22 year old ages, some of those gappers become homers as he develops physically.

Therein lies the issue with Cecchini.  Is he really read to play in the majors after just four games in September?  Better yet, is he ready to play second base after not having played more than two consecutive days at the position in his professional career.  Given the fact this Mets team has World Series aspirations, the answer to the question is most likely “no.”  With that Cecchini is better suited to being the starting second baseman in AAA next year and awaiting his opportunity.

Asdrubal Cabrera

2016 Stats: .280/.336/.474, 30 2B, 3B, 23 HR, 62 RBI, 141 G

This is the most unlikely internal option to play second base for the Mets next season.  He is signed through next year, and he has a reasonably 2018 option the Mets could exercise should Rosario not be ready to take over by then.  The mentioning of Cabrera serves to acknowledge the reality that his range is subpar for the position, and with his knee injuries last year, we should not expect it to get any better.  In fact, his range may eventually force the Mets to move him.  It is also possible Rosario has another outstanding season in the minors, and he may force his way onto the Mets roster next year.  Even if neither situation presents itself, moving Cabrera to second would give the Mets a number of options on the free agent and trade market.

FREE AGENTS

Ian Desmond

2016 Stats: .285/.335/.446, 29 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, 156 G

Desmond bet on himself when he took a one year deal from the Rangers, and he had an All Star season.  However, it should be noted that came as an outfielder.  It should also be noted Desmond has not played second base since his five games there in 2009.  While the Mets could shift Cabrera to second to permit Desmond to return to short, it should be noted Desmond is an even worse defensive shortstop than Cabrera and Reyes.

The other issues with Desmond are the fact that he did most of his damage in the first half, and he did most of his damage at the Ballpark at Arlington.  When you also consider the fact that he received a qualifying offer from the Rangers, the Mets would probably be better suited to looking elsewhere this offseason.

Jae-gyun Hwang

2016 Korean Stats: .330/.391/.558, 22 2B, 3 3B, 26 HR, 104 RBI, 118 G

With Korean players having succeeded in the major leagues the past few seasons, it is possible the Mets could be inclined to sign Hwang this offseason.  Even with that said, under Sandy Alderson, the Mets have been reticent to attempt to sign foreign players to be everyday players for their major league club.  Additionally, while Hwang has middle infield experience, it is at shortstop.  In reality, he is more of a third baseman, and at 29 years old, it is difficult to gauge whether he could even make the transition to second.

Chase Utley

2016 Stats: .252/.319/.396, 26 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 138 G

Yeah, this is never going to happen.  Moving on.

That’s just the issue – the middle infield market really is Walker and then no one else.  With that in mind, the Mets best option might just be bringing back Walker and hoping his surgically repaired back can withstand the rigors of playing everyday.  If not, the Mets are going to have to turn to some type of platoon that features a number of players we do not know can handle the position defensively, and almost all of whom hit much better against left-handed pitching.

 

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Mets Perform Better With Republican Presidents

There are many factors to consider when voting for a candidate today.  At this point, they have all be regurgitated and discussed at length, and hopefully, you have made your decision based upon sound criteria.  However, if you are looking for a reason to change your mind or reason to have your mind made up for you, or you really want to base this important decision on how the Mets have fared with a Republican or a Democrat in office, you are in luck.  Here is how the Mets have performed under each President in their 54 year history:

President Seasons Record Win %
John F. Kennedy 1962 – 1963 91 – 231 0.283
Lyndon B. Johnson 1964 – 1968 303 – 506 0.375
Richard M Nixon 1969 – 1974* 478 – 433 0.525
Gerald R. Ford 1974* – 1976 263 – 277 0.487
Jimmy Carter 1977 – 1980 260 – 388 0.401
Ronald Reagan 1981 – 1988 662 – 573 0.536
George H.W. Bush 1989 – 1992 386 – 423 0.477
William Jefferson Clinton 1993 – 2000 562 – 506 0.526
George W. Bush 2001 – 2008 651 – 643 0.503
Barack Obama 2009 – 2016 630-666 0.486

* Nixon resigned from office August 9, 1974

Here are the cumulative results:

Party Record Win%
Democrat 1,846 – 2,297 0.446
Republican 2,440 – 2,349 0.510

Here are some interesting Mets postseason facts when there was a Democrat or Republican in the White House.

Democrat Postseason Facts

  • The two times the Mets have been to back-to-back postseasons was when there was a Democrat in the White House (1999 & 2000 – Clinton; 2015 & 2016 – Obama)
  • The Mets have only had an NLCS MVP when there was a Democrat in the White House (Mike Hampton – 2000; Daniel Murphy – 2015)
  • The Mets have only won the division once (2015) with a Democrat in office.  The other three postseason appearances were as the Wild Card.
  • The Mets have appeared in four total postseasons and two World Series.  The Mets are 21-17 in postseason games with the following records per round:
    Wild Card Game 0 – 1
    NLDS 9 – 4
    NLCS 10 – 4
    World Series 2 – 8

Republican Postseason Facts

  • The Mets have won their only two World Series with a Republican in office (1969 – Nixon; 1986 – Reagan)
  • In all five of their appearances in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets were the National Leauge East champions.
  • In three of the five appearances, the Mets won 100+ games with the high water mark coming in 1986 with 108 wins
  • In four of the five seasons the Mets appeared in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets had the best record in the National League (1973 is the exception).  In two of those seasons (1986 & 2006), the Mets had the best record in baseball.
  • In total, the Mets have appeared in five postseason and three World Series.  The Mets are 30-20 in those postseason games with the following records per round:
    NLDS 3 – 0
    NLCS 16 – 12
    World Series 11 – 8

If you wish to mainly focus on player performance over how the team has fared during each administration, Mets players have received more awards during Republican leadership:

Cy Young Award

Rookie of the Year

Rolaids Relief Man

Sports Illustrated Man of the Year

  • Republican 1 (Seaver 1969)
  • Democrat 0

Gold Gloves

Silver Sluggers

Roberto Clemente Award

From the Front Office side, Republicans have a 2-1 edge in executive of the year with Johnny Murphy winning in 1969, Frank Cashen winning in 1986, and Sandy Alderson winning in 2015.  Baseball America named the Mets the top organization in baseball once in a Republican (1984) and once in a Democratic (1995) term.

As a general rule of thumb, the Mets and their players have performed better with a Republican in office.  As you enter the voting booths today, take that as you will.  Hopefully, you have more sound criteria for choosing your candidate.

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Mets Cannot Risk Making Neil Walker a Qualifying Offer

Before the 2015 offseason, the qualifying offer system was seen as a gentleman’s agreement.  Teams would offer it, and players would agree to decline it and seek a multi-year contract in free agency.  However, over time that agreement started to become a big issue for players.  Teams began to shy away from signing players who received qualifying offers because they did not want to lose a first round draft pick.  This began reducing the market for the proverbial second-tier free agent, which in turn, also reduced the size of the player’s contract.  The end result was Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters, and Brett Anderson accepting the qualifying offer.

It probably turned out to be the right move as those players were not likely to receive long-term deals in free agency.  If they were to receive an offer, the total contract value most likely wasn’t going to reach the $15.8 million, they were going to receive by accepting the offer.  The case in point on this was Ian Desmond having to accept a one year $8 million contract from the Texas Rangers.  Seeing the issues with these three players, it is increasingly more likely that players will accept qualifying offers this offseason.

It is exactly why the Mets cannot offer Neil Walker the qualifying offer.

Under normal circumstances offering Walker a qualifying offer would be seen as a given.  Walker was coming off a career year at both the plate and in the field.  He matched his career high in homers and set a career high in slugging percentage.  He even began hitting well from the right side almost doubling his career home run total as a right-handed batter.  In the field, Walker posted his best ever UZR (by a long shot) and his best ever DRS.  Overall, Walker was at his absolute best in every part of the game in the 2016 season.  Given the very weak free agent market, he was definitively going to be the best second baseman on the market, and he was set to cash-in.

He’s not now.  During this career best season, Walker had periods where he had numbness in his feet related to a herniated disc.  Even with the numbness, Walker was hitting .389/.450/.667 with six homers and 10 RBI in 18 August games.  He was having his best month of the season while he was trying to help the Mets rally back to the postseason.  Despite having his best stretch all season long and the Mets needing his bat in the lineup and glove on the field, Walker had to have season ending back surgery.  At the time, it was seen as a critical blow to not just the Mets postseason chances, but also to Walker’s future earnings in free agency.

The main issue with Walker is you don’t know what he is going to be next season.  Will the microdiscectomy surgery decrease his mobility in the field?  Will the surgery sap him of some of his power at the plate?  Will he full recover and return to the numbers he was at during the 2016 season?  We do not know the answer to any of these questions.  However, with Walker entering his age 31 season, there should be some expectation of decline even without the back surgery.

Now, these questions shouldn’t preclude the Mets from attempting to bring Walker back next season.  He should be a better option at second base next year than Gavin Cecchini, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, or T.J. Rivera.  However, he is not $16 million better than those options.  That $16 million matters in an offseason where players like Jacob deGrom are entering their arbitration years, the Mets picking up the $13 million option on Jay Bruce, and Yoenis Cespedes likely to be a free agent after presumably opting out of his contract.   If Walker was to accept the qualifying offer, which is very likely at this point, it could mean the end of Cespedes in a Mets uniform.

As we already know, the Mets have a number of players in place who can step up and take over the second base position should Walker leave in free agency.  However, as we already know, the Mets cannot replace Cespedes’ bat in the lineup.  When the risk is Cespedes, and you really don’t know what Walker can contribute next season, it’s really not much of a debate.  The Mets cannot make a qualifying offer to Walker.

Of with this being a bad idea, we know that could only mean one thing.  The Mets are going to absolutely extend Walker a qualifying offer today.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

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Travis d’Arnaud Should Be the Mets Catcher in 2017

This offseason, the Mets have a number of important decisions to make.  How far should they go to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes?  Should they re-sign Neil Walker to play second base, or do you stick with what you have in Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, and/or Jose Reyes?  How do you properly prepare for how to deal with the David Wright situation?  Once you pick up Jay Bruce‘s option, what do you do with him?  Do you move Bruce or Michael Conforto to first base, or do you stick with Lucas Duda, who has now had lower back injuries in consecutive seasons?  Do you bring back Bartolo Colon to be the fifth starter again, or do you fully trust one of Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo to take over that role?  Overall, there are many questions on how the Mets should build the 2017 roster.

However, one avenue they don’t have to address is the catcher position.

Let’s start with the one player people will have near unanimous agreement.  Rene Rivera should return as the Mets backup catcher.  Rivera certainly earned his reputation as not only a good defensive catcher, but also one that serves as a mentor for young starting pitching.  Much of the unexpected success both Gsellman and Lugo had were partially the result of them working with Rivera.  More importantly, Rivera developed a rapport with Noah Syndergaard.  He became the ace’s personal catcher, and we saw Rivera catch seven brilliant innings from Syndergaard in the Wild Card Game.  With Rivera being arbitration eligible, he should be a lock to return in his role.

By the way, that role was the backup catcher to Travis d’Arnaud.

There is no sugar-coating it.  The 2016 season was a disaster for d’Arnaud at the plate.  In 75 games, d’Arnaud hit .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI.  He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season.  It was as bad as you can possibly imagine.  In fact, his numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season.  That year, the Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate.  The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.

Making everything all the more frustrating was d’Arnaud regressed in his ability to throw out base runners.  In 2015, he was actually league average in that department.  That is all the more impressive when you consider how the Mets starting pitchers generally do not hold on runners well.  This season d’Arnaud went back to only throwing out 22% of base runners.

Part of his offensive and throwing issues are related to mechanics.  Part of them may be related to the rotator cuff strain he had in his  throwing shoulder.  Another factor was with d’Arnaud struggling, he began to receive irregular playing time.  It could be any combination of the three.  In any event, d’Arnaud had a poor year offensively and a poor year throwing.

However, d’Arnaud was still good behind the plate.  He’s always been good at fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating baseball’s blocking the plate rules.  He still calls a good game.  He was yet again one of the best pitch framers in baseball.  In fact, his teammate. Addison Reed, said, “There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look.  He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.”  (ESPN.com).  Judging from Reed’s words, you can tell he also has the confidence of his pitching staff.

With d’Arnaud still excelling behind the plate, and there being valid reasons for his poor performance, it might just be in the Mets best interests to bet on d’Arnaud rebounding in 2017.  Remember, d’Arnaud was the same player who hit .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI in 67 games.  Arguably, d’Arnaud was one of the top offensive catchers in the game.  With his skills behind the plate, he has the rare ability to be able to hit and catch well.  With him turning 28 years old and still being a player with multiple years of control, the Mets would be best suited to count on him getting healthy in the offseason (not always a given with d’Arnaud) and letting him reclaim his 2015 form.

Another reason to bet on d’Arnaud is the weak free agent class.  Looking at the list of possible free agents, there does not exist one catcher who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.

The first catcher most people will point to is Wilson Ramos.  Even if you buy into his career year being a new norm for him, Ramos isn’t even sure he will be able to play next season after tearing his ACL.  As Ramos said himself, “Unfortunately this injury… may affect whether I am able to stay with a NL team.”  (cbssports.com).  That rules out Ramos entirely.

The next catcher that is consistently mentioned is Matt Wieters.  In 2016, despite hitting in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, Wieters hit .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers and 66 RBI.  These numbers are partially why he had an 87 OPS+ meaning he was a subpar offensive player.  Even if you are willing to overlook some of these stats because he is a switch hitter, he hit .231/.304/.346 with three homers and 15 RBI off lefties this year.

Moreoever, Wieters is nowhere near the pitch framer d’Arnaud is.  Wieters is not only unable to steal his staff a strike here or there, he is also unable to ensure that strikes thrown will be called strikes.  Another consideration is Wieters is a fairly injury prone player.  While he was healthy in 2016, he was not for the previous couple of years.  If one of the reasons you are looking to move on from d’Arnaud is health, Wieters is not your guy.

Another factor the Mets should not pursue Wieters, or whoever else you believe should be a target, is money.  Ultimately, players like Wieters are going to cost more than d’Arnaud.  That’s important when you consider Jacob deGrom is heading to his first arbitration year, and the Mets still have to find the money to re-sign Cespedes.  Any money spent this offseason is presumably less money available for the Mets to give Cespedes.  Therefore, if you sign a player, you better make sure that both is both a player of need and/or a definite upgrade over what the Mets already have.

There is no one out there who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.  In fact, they are probably not as good as him.  Worse yet, they are going to be more expensive.  With that in mind, the Mets best move would be to let d’Arnaud get healthy so he can contribute to the Mets like he did in 2015.

If he doesn’t, the Mets still have Kevin Plawecki . . . .

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

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Making Sense of Cecchini the Shortstop

It is highly doubtful that 30 games played in an Instructional League in the month of October will have a far reaching impact on a player’s career. Still, Gavin Cecchini‘s time in the Arizona Fall League appears to be a bit of a missed opportunity.

It became very apparent this year that Cecchini’s future with the New York Mets will be at second base.

That first became apparent because Cecchini has struggled defensively at the position. While fielding percentage can be an overrated and flawed stat, Cecchini’s .933 fielding percentage in AAA, and his minor league career .944 fielding percentage cannot be ignored.  His stats show he’s not capable of playing short. It is strange because he has the tools to be a good defender there, but he just can’t put it together.

This begs the question why do the Mets want him to put it together?  With Amed Rosario having established himself as the much better defensive shortstop, the much better prospect, and arguably the better offensive player, Rosario, not Cecchini, is the shortstop of the future. If you still like Cecchini as a player, and you believe he is a major league caliber player, he needs to transition to second base.

And the process has begun. He worked on second base on the side during the AAA season. He even got into two games there before being called-up to the Mets. Given the fact that the transition presumably began, it has been surprising to see Cecchini play so much shortstop in the Arizona Fall League. It’s shocking when Mets first base coach, Tom Goodwin, is Cecchini’s manager.  It’s downright stupefying when the Scorpions are carrying one second baseman and three shortstops on their roster.

It leads one to search for some logic behind what seems to be an illogical decision.  Upon further review, there appears to be a couple of good reasons why the Mets have Cecchini playing a lot of shortstop in the Arizona Fall League.

The first and obvious answer is this is all much ado about nothing. While it would be preferable for Cecchini to play second base, it is more important for him to play everyday to see how he stacks up against the best prospects in the game.  The Mets may just want him to focus on his hitting to see if his bat could translate against some of the better pitching prospects in baseball.  Note, in a 30 game context, this does not just mean results, it also is his approach and whether or not he appears over-matched.  If Cecchini does prove he can hit better pitching, his future would be further solidified with the Mets.

Second, there may be a real issue going forward with Asdrubal Cabrera and his knees (even with him not needing knee surgery). While Terry Collins’ first choice would be to move Jose Reyes to short in Cabrera’s absence, he may not have that luxury as Reyes may be playing third base for David Wright, or Reyes could start next season as the starting second baseman depending on what the Mets are able to do this offseason.  Also keep in mind that Reyes has proven himself to be an injury prone player at times in his career.

If any of the aforementioned players are injured, the options at short would be Cecchini or Matt Reynolds. In the short term, the Mets may go to Reynolds who has played in the major leagues, is the better defender, and has had some success at the big league level.  Moreover, Reynolds has been transitioning to being a utility player meaning he may be more accustomed to not playing everyday.  In the event there is an injury that will require someone to take over for a month or so, Cecchini might get the call.  While the Mets may be loathed to use him for a two week stretch, they may be inclined to run him out there everyday for a month or so to see how the better regarded prospect can handle being an everyday player.

Finally, the Mets may not be moving Cecchini from shortstop because you can never have too much depth.  Rosario could regress, suffer an injury, or the Mets could be presented with a trade offer where they would include their untouchable prospect. In any of these scenarios, the Mets are going to need another shortstop.  That shortstop should be Cecchini as he is currently the best non-Rosario middle infield prospect.

There may be other reasons why the Mets are playing Cecchini at shortstop in the Arizona Fall League rather than capitalizing on an opportunity to transition one of their best prospects to the position he is destined to play.  Whatever the case, the hope needs to be the Mets are making decisions based upon sound principles that are in both their own and Cecchini’s best interests.

Editor’s Note: Cecchini left last week’s Arizona Fall League game after fouling a ball off his foot.  Despite the injury, he is hitting .258/.359/.419 with two doubles, a homer, and six RBI in nine games.  He is part of fan voting to select the final two players for the Arizona Fall League roster.

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We’re Seriously Focusing on OBJ’s Behavior?

Now, some will tell you that Jose Reyes second tenure with the Mets shows us that when a team wins everyone will forget about a player’s transgressions.  Personally, I have not found that narrative to be entirely true.  Personally, I believe Reyes’ domestic violence issues were not brought up again for a number of reasons.

The main reason was when Reyes came to the Mets, it was all about baseball for him.  He just went out there everyday and did his job on the field.  While Reyes is an exuberant player, it no longer stands out as much as it did in 2006.  In that 10 year time span, he has become more mature and players in general have become more expressive on the field.

By keeping it about baseball, Reyes allowed the story and the vitriol to subside.  It also helped that thankfully there were no stories about any repeat offenses.  And yes, it did help that the Mets won games.  However, the most important thing is Reyes played baseball and didn’t give reason to bring up the issues again.

That’s where Odell Beckham, Jr. and Josh Brown come into play.  These are two New York Giants players that have come under scrutiny for far different reasons.

For OBJ, it has been people calling his maturity into question.  There was the incident with Josh Norman last year.  This year, teams have seized on how emotional he is by delivering late hits and hits out of bounds to entice him into a personal foul.  It has worked.  However, the main focus on him has been his relationship with the kicking net.

It started with OBJ hitting the kicking net out of frustration and it bouncing back and hitting him.  After a few other events, OBJ wound-up jokingly proposing to the net.  People have come out either rolling their eyes at him or just downright getting angry with him.  His coach and quarterback have said that Beckham has been a distraction with the kicking net and other antics.

However, there are no recent quotes on their kicker, Josh Brown.  Brown has no issue with opponents or kicking nets.  Rather, he has issues with being a human being as evidenced by his journal entries recently released by Kings County Sheriff’s Office:

I have physically, mentally, emotionally and verbally been a repulsive man.  I have abused my wife.

 ********

I have been a liar for most of my life.  I made selfish decisions to use and abuse women starting at the age of 7 to fill this void. I objectified women and never really worried about the pain and hurt I caused them. My ability to connect emotionally to other people was zero. My empathy levels were zero.

 ********

Because I never handled these underlying issues I became an abuser and hurt [my wife] Molly physically, emotionally and verbally. I viewed myself as God basically and she was my slave.

(New York Post)

Of course, no one has commented on any of this.  Why would they?  The Giants re-signed a kicker who they knew was being investigated for domestic violence.  They purported to have done their “due diligence.”  Apparently, their due diligence and the due diligence of the NFL is terrible because Brown only served a one game suspension for the arrest.

Now, this is back in the limelight again because these documents were released.  If not for these documents, no one would have brought this back up again for the remainder of the season (save maybe media day if the Giants made it to the Super Bowl).  No, the story would have died after Week 2 when Brown returned to the Giants.  With him and the Giants just going out and playing football, the story died.  This is just like the Reyes story did.

That’s the main lesson for OBJ to learn here.  As long as you focus on the field, in the long run, no one is going to care.  They will forget about the Norman incident.  They will forget about the personal fouls.  They will forget about your relationship with the kicking net.  They will forget about everything that has happened in your past.  None of the bad happened so long as you are focused on your play.

Ultimately, that is the lesson we have learned this baseball and football season.  Stay focused on the field and hope the sheriff’s department doesn’t reveal the case they had against you and for some reason didn’t prosecute.

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