Jeremy Hefner
Objectively speaking, David Peterson is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 40.0 IP, he has the fifth worst ERA and 14th worst FIP.
The biggest trouble with Peterson right now is he seems to be regressing and showing little signs of coming out of this. Since that gem against the Tampa Bay Rays, he’s made four starts going 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA.
He’s walked eight and struck out 12 over 13.2 innings. That’s 3.1 innings per start. That’s what happens when batters have hit .356/.441/.644 against him. Keep in mind, this is in a year where offense is at historic lows.
Peterson’s Baseball Savant page is a disaster. He’s not generating spin on his pitches, he’s not fooling anyone, his control is poor, and batters are hitting him hard. As many have pointed out, the biggest issue is his release points.
The Visualization portion of Baseball Savant backs that up saying Peterson “tends to have very erratic release points on his pitches.”
It may very well be a matter of fixing that to permit Peterson to be the pitcher the Mets think Peterson could be. From the flashes we’ve seen, this could be a very good starter.
However, he’s not that, and with each start, he gets further from being that. At this point, we should remember Peterson had zero Triple-A starts, only made 24 Double-A starts, and he was really pressed into action last year due to the pandemic with Brodie Van Wagenen’s recklessness with the Mets pitching depth.
While some believed Peterson had a good year last year, it’s important to remember it was just 10 appearances. Also, more advanced numbers like FIP indicated Peterson was due for a significant regression.
Now, you can understand wanting Peterson to work with Jeremy Hefner. After all, by and large, Hefner has seemingly done terrific work with this Mets pitching staff. That said, for whatever reason, it’s just not clicking with Peterson right now.
The other counter-argument is the Mets don’t really have a viable starter in Triple-A to take his place. On the most obvious replacement, Thomas Szapucki, his control issues are correctly demoted.
Of course, the rebuttal is why does Peterson get to continuously falter without giving Szapucki a shot to get the benefit of working with Hefner. More than that, Peterson isn’t giving you starter innings.
On the season, he’s given the Mets 4.1 innings per start. Since May 1, that number is down to 3.2 innings. Over his last two starts, he’s pitched a total of 3.0 innings.
Every Peterson start is effectively a bullpen game. With that being the case, it would be better to call-up Sean Reid-Foley, who has thrived with the Mets in 2.0 – 3.0 inning stretches. Really, at this point, it’s inarguable Reid-Foley for 2.0+ innings is far superior to whatever Peterson is providing.
In the end, this is how you develop Mike Pelfrey 2.0. You rush a pitcher who isn’t ready to the majors. You stubbornly keep him there despite the results indicating he should be sent down. The next part is you call him a bust while completely ignoring all you did to prevent him from realizing his potential.
The Mets need to stop the stubbornness and nonsense. Peterson isn’t and wasn’t ready. He needs time. Give it to him and be ready to maybe call him up later in the season or next year.
The New York Mets had a chance to put further distance between themselves and the rest of the NL East. Instead, they lost a tough series:
1. Of course, Jordan Yamamoto got hurt because there can’t be a Mets game without an injury.
2. The same fans who wanted Joey Lucchesi pitch the fifth are the same ones who wanted everyone warming when David Peterson last pitched.
3. Johneshwy Fargas belongs.
4. If you wanted proof Baseball is a cruel sport, look no further than Jake Hager being designated for assignment the day after celebrating his first MLB hit.
5. Marcus Stroman cheering on Miguel Castro after Castro blew Stroman’s win speaks volumes about Stroman as a person and teammate.
6. At this rate, and after his strong rehab start, Noah Syndergaard may be the first person back from the IL. Okay, it’s really going to be Jacob deGrom, but you get the point.
7. Tomas Nido gave an inch in this series with the dropped ball, but James McCann again showed no reason why he should play over Nido right now.
8. The Mets are really banged up, but there has to be better options available than Brandon Drury and Cameron Maybin . . . right?
9. Jonathan Villar has been abysmal of late.
10. There’s literally no point in complaining about the lineups right now because there are zero good choices to put out there.
11. Dominic Smith really is a terrific defensive first baseman. Hopefully, his getting time where he’s most comfortable can get him swinging better.
12. Well, except for clutch situations. He’s as good as gold in those situations right now.
13. With Robert Gsellman and Sean Reid-Foley, the Mets have been getting phenomenal performances from the long men in the bullpen.
14. Really, the bullpen has been great from top to bottom. You just have to wonder how much longer they can withstand this usage rate.
15. Luis Rojas and Jeremy Hefner aren’t getting nearly enough credit.
16. Mets need more from Francisco Lindor. They’ll get it eventually. Until that time, just enjoy the great defense and the hugs.
17. The game winning hit was fun and all, but Khalil Lee is completely and utterly overmatched at the plate right now.
18. It’s awesome to see MSG rocking for Knicks playoff basketball. It’s been so desperately missed.
19. The last time the Knicks and Mets made the playoffs in the same year was 2000 when the Mets lost the World Series, and the Knicks lost to the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
20. The Colorado Rockies are coming to Citi Field at a time the Mets weakened roster needs a truly putrid team they can beat.
The New York Mets have been an injury a minute, and somehow, they went to Atlanta and took two out of three from the Braves:
1. If Tomas Nido keeps this up, the discussion may shift from whether he should be the everyday catcher to whether he’s one of the best catchers in the game.
2. Khalil Lee can keep striking out if he is going to continue to make outstanding game saving catches in right field.
3. Kudos to Edwin Diaz to taking that significant step in his career where you can rely on him on consecutive days.
4. The front office people who told Diaz to put on more weight deserves a raise. The same goes to Jeremy Hefner, who is getting all you can out of Diaz and the entire bullpen.
5. The same goes for the people designing the Mets shifts. They’re shifting nearly more than everyone, and they’re doing it better than almost everyone.
6. Seeing how the Mets played this series and the improvements he seems to be making, Luis Rojas should be getting more credit than he is.
7. Jonathan Villar is a guy with poor numbers across the board, and yet, he just finds a way to have an impact in nearly every game.
8. Kevin Pillar suffered the worst HBP this side of Ray Chapman. It’s miraculous he didn’t suffer more than multiple nasal fractures.
9. Pillar certainly made himself more fans with his play and his talking about how it’s breaking his heart he can’t be out there when his team needs him.
10. That should serve as a reminder we shouldn’t be rushing to judgment to players after a week. Remember, there were plenty of very vocal fans who were convinced Pillar would do nothing this year.
11. It’s not hyperbole to say the Mets play a game and someone else turns up injured. It’s so bad we find out Pete Alonso suddenly has a wrist issue and can’t play.
12. It looks like Dominic Smith could supplant Alonso as the first baseman for now. Hopefully, that helps get him going.
13. For as much as the Mets didn’t want to give Jordan Yamamoto a real chance, they have no choice now. Oh, and we’re probably going to see Thomas Szapucki soon.
14. There’s joy, and then there’s Tommy Hunter, a 14 year MLB veteran, getting his first career hit.
15. Good job by the Chicago Cubs honoring their commitment to Cameron Maybin by trading him to the Mets for $1.
16. It wasn’t that long ago Brodie Van Wagenen and Jeff Wilpon didn’t honor their agreement to Devin Mesoraco. That led to Mesoraco retuning, rushing to activate Travis d’Arnaud, and then rage cutting d’Arnaud.
17. If you’re looking for a comp for David Peterson, it’s Mike Pelfrey. Both were sinkerball first rounders rushed to the majors from Double-A, and the team didn’t let them go back and develop after the initial panic call-up.
18. If you’re even being competitive with a Maybin-Johneshwy Fargas-Lee outfield, you’re doing something right. Seriously, what the Mets did in this series was beyond impressive.
19. Think of everything that has gone wrong with this team. They’re still over .500 and in first place.
20. Sometimes teams just have one of those special seasons. So far, this is shaping up to be one of them.
Game Recaps
The New York Mets seemingly have a million different issues thus far, but as we saw in their sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, it is not stopping them from winning games:
1. The biggest issue the Mets have right now is the health of Jacob deGrom. Fortunately, his MRI was clean, and even better, the team is taking a cautious approach by putting him on the IL.
2. The Mets are getting next to nothing from their starting rotation right now, and it is not stopping them from winning games because the bullpen has been phenomenal. There is a lot of credit due to Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy Accardo, and Luis Rojas for not only getting the most out of them, but also for putting them all in positions to succeed.
3. If Edwin Diaz is bailing the Mets out of innings, and he is getting five out saves, this Mets team is going to be completely unstoppable.
4. The Mets are in first place right now without Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, Seth Lugo, and Brandon Nimmo. It is high time the narrative on Rojas shifts from over his head to being a good manager. At this pace, he may emerge as a real Manager of the Year candidate.
5. We don’t know what happened between Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor in that tunnel, but we do know it has not stopped them from turning absolutely incredible double plays.
6. The coverage of the “ratcoon” story was all the more puzzling when you consider everything the press looked the other way on when the Wilpons were in control. Apparently harassment of women and interfering with medical decisions didn’t need the serious reporting a fight between teammates warranted.
7. The press feeling insulted by Lindor “lying” to them is tough to take. After all, J.D. Davis lied to their faces about his involvement in the Astros sign stealing scandal, and they didn’t seem to remotely care.
8. At the moment, it seems like Tomas Nido is outplaying James McCann. The problem for any organization is determining whether Nido is superior to McCann or if McCann just needs some additional time to return to his expected form. Many times, it is decisions like these which define a season.
9. The Mets are getting a lot of production out of their bench. As noted, Nido is actually outplaying McCann. We also see Kevin Pillar playing very well in all aspects over the last few weeks. If he can keep this up, he is going to make decisions very difficult for the Mets.
10. If Dominic Smith is going to continue to struggle at the plate and in the field, and Pete Alonso is going to continue to play defense this well, it is going to be very difficult to find Smith playing time. The hope is the firing of Chili Davis could help turn around his season.
11. Once again, Michael Conforto appears to be a very good baseball players, and we are starting to see him pick it up defensively. It just goes to show you not to over rely or overreact to players have slow starts.
12. Jonathan Villar had a golden opportunity to claim himself an everyday job with Davis and Luis Guillorme injured. With his struggles at the plate and seeing him let a pop up fall, he’s cementing himself as a pure bench option.
13. With Villar’s struggles and Albert Almora flat out not hitting, if you look forward, perhaps the Mets could look to bring back old friend Asdrubal Cabrera for bench help for the postseason. Yes, this classifies as getting ahead of ourselves, but we should be embracing the excitement of the moment.
14. David Peterson is certainly making things easy on what the Mets should do when Carrasco and Syndergaard are ready to return from the IL.
15. One of the most bizarre things happening right now is Patrick Mazeika‘s penchant for pinch hit RBI where he doesn’t actually deliver a hit. So far, he has had an extra innings fielder’s choice and a bases loaded walk.
16. One of the biggest shames of the ratcoon fallout is seeing Mazeika not get celebrated for his first career walk off hit.
17. It’s not only funny to see Trevor Bauer up in arms over the Los Angeles Dodgers struggling, but it is downright hilarious he is being outpitched by Taijuan Walker so far this season. And yes, that is happening with Walker having a better ERA+ and FIP than Bauer.
18. For all the problems with the Mets offense, with their pitching, they only need to get to four runs. When that has happened this year, the Mets are 15-2.
19. The Mets do have a negative run differential, but that is partially fueled by their 12 run loss against the Cubs. If you take that game out of the equation, they would have a positive nine run differential, which would be good for sixth in the NL. Put another way, aside from one game, they’ve been in the upper echelon of the NL.
20. The Mets being able to play games has clearly been good for them. They’re getting into a rhythm offensively and defensively. As we see them play more and more games, we can see them get better and better. They’re in first place now, and who knows just how far they will go from here.
Game Recaps
Francisco Lindor and Mets Show Some Fight
Well, after the first series of the season was canceled due to COVID19, the Washington Nationals and New York Mets finally got to play in a series. The Mets would win yet another home series and stay above .500:
1. Jacob deGrom is already the second best pitcher in Mets history, and in short order, we will consider him the second best Mets player to ever wear a Mets uniform. In fact, he may already be there.
2. To put in context just how great deGrom is, he’s set the record for most strikeouts to start a season, and he has passed Tom Seaver in Mets ERA and ERA+. Yes, he has been so great he has put himself in Seaver territory.
3. Seeing deGrom hit, you are reminded pitchers can actually hit and help themselves at the plate. The fact other pitchers don’t do it is their own failing, and it is not a good argument for the universal DH.
4. deGrom has driven in and scored more earned runs than he has allowed.
5. Marcus Stroman had one bad day. There is nothing more that should be read into it.
6. We saw Robert Gsellman step up, and he has looks ready to be a solid contributor to the bullpen. Overall, the bullpen has picked it up across the board, and they seem to be outperforming the early season expectations. In some ways, this could be attributable to Jeremy Hefner who had a similar effect in Minnesota as an assistant pitching coach.
7. Once again, Taijuan Walker was really good, and he appears to be the steal of the offseason for the Mets. Notably, when starters are going deep into games, that also helps the bullpen.
8. Michael Conforto‘s defense is still worrisome, especially his arm, but he appears to be getting going at the plate. We saw him hit his first homer of the season, and we saw him get extra base hits on back-to-back days for the first time all season.
9. For reasons that defy expectation, this Mets front office seem to believe more in J.D. Davis than Jeff McNeil. Davis can cost Mets consecutive games with his glove, and they give him on brief rest, but McNeil has some struggles at the plate, and they refuse to try to put him where he thrives in the lineup or let him work through it.
10. Albert Almora doesn’t play much, but when he does, he makes an impact. He scored from first in a pinch running opportunity earlier in the season, and he robbed Kyle Schawarber of an extra base hit as we have only seen Juan Lagares do previously.
11. Jonathan Villar has contributed quite well in the games he has played, and he has earned his playing time. It is really curious why the Mets won’t sit Davis for him, but they will sit McNeil. It’s also curious what Luis Guillorme has to do to get into the lineup.
12. The Mets sat Dominic Smith against a left-handed pitcher again despite his being one of their best hitters against left-handed pitching. Again, better players sit so Davis can be force fed into the lineup.
13. While Sunday was a really good game defensively, the Mets defense continues to be atrocious, second worst in the National League by DRS, and the Mets show little to no interest in playing their best defensive players.
14. It needs to be mentioned again. Jacob deGrom is doing things we haven’t seen since Seaver, and we may never get to see greatness of this level in a Mets uniform again for quite some time, if ever. He is that good, and he is going to be the player we tell our children and grandchildren about for years to come.
15. The Mets better not fail deGrom the way they did Mike Piazza and David Wright. They need to make sure he wins a World Series in a Mets uniform.
16. Brandon Nimmo is very quietly emerging as one of the best players in baseball. He is an on-base machine, and we see his defense steadily improving. This is someone using all the information at his disposal to be better. He should be an All-Star, and at some point, we may need to have serious MVP discussions about him. Then again, that award should go to deGrom.
17. The state of umpiring in the majors may be at its worst. We see calls routinely blown, especially by the home plate umpire. Needless to say, if Nimmo takes a pitch, it’s a ball.
18. Pete Alonso is really heating up at the plate, and we have seen him just demolish homers.
19. Put aside the offense, the work James McCann and Tomas Nido have done behind the plate has been nothing short of phenomenal. They are getting their pitcher the calls they need, and they are playing all around great defense. If McCann can start hitting like we know he can, watch out. Hopefully, that RBI single on Sunday for McCann was a start.
20. Listening to the game on the radio really makes you miss Josh Lewin. No one really wants to hear Francisco Lindor needs to run out foul balls or Nimmo is swinging at pitches because he’s finally confident at the plate. The Mets can and should do better than that, but in some ways, that’s an allegory for their season so far.
Maybe this is just the excitement which comes from Opening Day. Certainly, that is amplified by new ownership, the Francisco Lindor extension, and Jacob deGrom taking the mound. However, taking everything into account, this New York Mets team is the best one we have seen since 2015 and probably 2006.
Like most times the Mets are good, they are going to be led by pitching. Their starting staff is great, and when healthy, it is the best in baseball. Part of the reason why is deGrom is still the best pitcher in baseball. Behind him right now is Marcus Stroman. Stroman has made adjustments and added new pitches, and he looks set for a career year. That is really saying something considering he has been a gamer his entire career, and he was the World Baseball Classic MVP.
Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco may be the two most underrated pitchers in baseball. Looking at their FIP, they pitch at or near an ace level. In this rotation, they may be no better than third or fourth starters. It’s not just doing deGrom-Stroman-Syndergaard-Carrasco. This is one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball.
Behind that quartet is Taijuan Walker who was once a top 100 prospect, and he seems poised to take a big step forward after using analytics to help him improve. After Walker, the Mets have David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto, each of whom could be around a three in most rotations. For the Mets, they will eventually be on the outside looking in.
They are all going to be better pitchers because they have the tandem of James McCann and Tomas Nido behind the plate. Both of these players are strong catchers who are excellent pitch framers. Having catchers like that behind the plate make good pitchers even better. When your starting pitching is great and operating at a high level, you are going to win a lot of games.
This is paired with an incredible lineup. They Mets have an embarrassment of riches on that front. Consider Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have each been All-Star lead-off hitters, and they aren’t even the Mets best lead-off hitter. That’s Brandon Nimmo. With that group plus Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith, their 1-6 of their lineup can and probably should be hitting in the middle of the order.
Now, this Mets team isn’t perfect. Far from it. The first problem is their bullpen. The good news on that front is between Edwin Diaz and Trevor May, they have the last two innings covered well. The hope is at least one of Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, or Jeurys Familia can figure it out to become that seventh inning reliever. That is at least until Seth Lugo is good to return. When that happens the Mets bullpen will be in great shape.
Another factor there is the Mets have some other interesting options. Sooner or later, Drew Smith will be healthy and ready to rejoin the bullpen. It should also be noted when the Mets have their full rotation, someone like Lucchesi can move down to the bullpen where his churve could be a weapon on par with Lugo’s curveball.
The other issue is the defense. Simply put, having J.D. Davis at third is unacceptable. He can’t remotely field the position. Having Dominic Smith behind him makes the left side defense one of the worst in baseball. To that, they may not be the worst in the division with the Atlanta Braves probably being worse with Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.
It’s very possible Brandon Nimmo can succeed with positioning in center. After all, he’s had positive OAAs in center most of his career, and he does have the speed for the position. Jeff McNeil seems more comfortable at second, and while Alonso has his defensive issues, he is quite adept and receiving throws around first.
While the lineup has serious defensive issues, the bench does not. Luis Guillorme is a Gold Glove caliber defender. Albert Almora and Kevin Pillar are also quite good. With the lead, we can and should see Luis Rojas run all three out with Smith moving to first base. When that happens, the Mets defensive alignment turns from questionable to really strong.
Therein lies the key. Aside from health, Rojas is going to be the biggest key to this Mets season. He is going to need a deft touch as to when to utilize his defensive replacements. He and Jeremy Hefner are also going to have to get their rotation healthy through the season, which is all the more challenging because of the shortened season last year. They are also going to have to find the right mix in the bullpen while making sure they don’t overuse their best relievers.
Right now, the Mets have the right mix to have a great season. They also have an owner willing to invest in the team, and they have Sandy Alderson in charge, who we know will not be shy making a key trade or two to improve this Mets roster.
Looking at the Braves, their pitching has durability issues, and their defensive issues may be worse than the Mets. The Phillies don’t have the starting pitching, and their bullpen was a disaster last year. The Marlins are young and not deep. The Nationals still don’t know what they are going at key positions on the field.
Taking everything into account, the Mets are the best team in the National League East. If Rojas is up to the task, and there is every reason to believe he will be, the Mets are well poised to return to the postseason again and let their pitching take them back to the World Series.
The New York Mets bullpen has been through for a loop with the injury to Seth Lugo to start the season. Things have grown increasingly complicated by diminished velocity of Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances. With all that said, the bullpen has talent, and there are many spots accounted for already.
Guaranteed – Miguel Castro, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Aaron Loup, Trevor May
Obviously, Diaz is going to be the closer coming off of a strong 2020 season. May is going to figure into the equation as a late inning reliever, and Loup was brought on to be the LOOGY. That’s the easy part.
Castro is out of options, and it is very likely he would be picked up off waivers if the Mets tried to send him down. Fortunately, that does not seem to be an issue with Castro having a great Spring striking out four in 4.0 scoreless and hitless innings.
After him, with Familia seemingly getting his elite level stuff back, he is a lock to make the bullpen. If nothing else, he can pitch the middle innings while the Mets hope Jeremy Hefner gets him back to his dominant form.
Bubble – Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, Drew Smith, Daniel Zamora
The 13 pitcher roster rule has been suspended for the 2021 season, but that may be a good general construct. Considering a five man rotation with the aforementioned five guaranteed spots, that leaves three remaining spots.
Given his salary and history of building up his velocity in-season, it is likely Betances makes the Opening Day roster. That leaves two spots available in the bullpen. Given the performances this Spring, that is going to be a difficult decision.
Gsellman has been a mainstay in the bullpen over the last few seasons and based on seniority he gets the call. Notably with him, the Mets did have the option to stretch him out as a starter, but they opted not to do that this spring with Gsellman only throwing 4.0 innings over three appearances.
Smith was the one reliever from the 2017 trade deadline debacle who has proven he could pitch in the majors. So far, he looks good, and the Mets are going to have to go out of their way to try to keep a pitcher with three scoreless appearances with no walks and three strikeouts off of the roster.
Finally, there is Zamora who probably presents the Mets best option to carry two left-handed pitchers in the bullpen. He has been a little wild with two walks over 3.2 innings, but he has also struck out three batters. That is typical for Zamora over the last few years.
Fifth Starter Competition – Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, Jordan Yamamoto
The injury to Carlos Carrasco certainly changed the complexity of the fifth starter battle. With his injury, that opened up two spots instead of one. Given the nature of the injury, the Mets could feel more comfortable putting Peterson in the Opening Day rotation as the fear of having to send him down at one point isn’t as strong.
If Peterson were to make the rotation, the Mets could put one or both of Lucchesi or Yamamoto in the bullpen. Both pitchers have been great this Spring, and they have both more than made the case they deserve to be on the Opening Day roster in some way, shape, or form.
Outside Looking In – Jerry Blevins, Tommy Hunter, Arodys Vizcaino
Blevins probably has a much better chance than this given his curveball looking great. However, he has only appeared in two games walking two and striking out three. While this arguably puts him ahead of Zamora, especially with his track record, adding Blevins would require the Mets to make a roster move.
With respect to Hunter and Vizcaino, they may well both prove to have an impact on the Mets in 2021. That said, neither quite seem ready to pitch Opening Day at the moment. That goes double for Vizcaino who has only made one apperance so far.
Wild Card – Mike Montgomery, Corey Oswalt
With Carrasco suffering an injury, the Mets are said to begin stretching out Montgomery. That would seemingly be an indication they are looking for him to begin the season in Syracuse instead of Flushing. Still, it is hard to overlook his ability to be another lefty in the bullpen and a pitcher who can give you multiple innings. That said, Lucceshi could offer that himself.
Oswalt has had a very good Spring Training with Luis Rojas being very impressed. His velocity is way up, and he has looked quite strong. In fact, we probably shouldn’t completely rule him out in the fifth stater competition. If it is about competition, Oswalt has a strong case to make the Opening Day roster. That said, the fact it’ll require a 40 man move serves as a significant impediment.
Opening Day Bullpen
Joining the aforementioned group of Castro, Diaz, Familia, Loup, and May will very likely include Betances giving the Mets two more spots to figure out. With Lucchesi and Yamamoto now poised to start the season in the rotation, it would seem the final two spots can go to pitchers who are strictly relievers and not converted starters.
At the moment, it looks like one of those two spots should go to Smith. It’s possible the last spot goes to Gsellman due to his ability to give the Mets an extra inning here or there, but it would seem his spot is about as tenuous as Betances’ is right now. Overall, there are two weeks to go and a lot can happen. It will be very interesting to see where things go from here.
While Luis Guillorme understandably grabbed all the headlines, he was not the only Mets player who impressed. Corey Oswalt also had a strong performance.
Oswalt pitched two scoreless innings striking out five of the six batters he faced. It was a reminder Oswalt may still have an impact at the MLB level.
At this point in his career, it is difficult to say he’s been good. There have been glimpses here and there, but overall, as his career 63 ERA+ would indicate, he’s struggled.
One of the biggest reasons why is how he’s been used, or better put, abused, by the Mets. He’s sat unused for far too long stretches, had him pitch on three or fewer days rest, and they’ve bounced him between roles with zero preparation.
Put another way, the Mets did not put Oswalt in a position to succeed, and he hasn’t. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t.
Oswalt is a true four pitch pitcher who is willing to throw any of his pitches at any count. One of the reasons he can do this is his control. While not exceptional, it’s still quite good, and he can locate his pitches where he wants.
Oswalt does not have great velocity averaging around 92 MPH on his fastball. He also has not shown much spin on any of his pitches. As noted, he does combat this by locating.
That said, his change has nice drop to it. That helps allow the swings-and-misses, and it helps induce weak contact. The issue is he hasn’t really had that chances. That’s something the Mets really haven’t had.
The question fo Oswalt is whether he’ll get that chance now. That’s certainly up for debate partially because of the Mets.
Overall, this was a strong 2,0 innings for Oswalt. He showed why the Mets can’t give up on him. That goes double with the Mets starting staff beginning the year without Noah Syndergaard and Seth Lugo.
That right there is the key. The Mets need to pick a role to permit Oswalt to thrive and work within that role with Jeremy Hefner. That could be as a reliever, and it could be as a fifth starter. That’s up to the Mets.
With Oswalt off the 40, he has to reprove himself to get that call up again. He then has to stick. He has the talent, and he’s got the ability to work on things. Where he goes from here depends on his development).
We can and should argue the New York Mets should’ve done more to address the bullpen. That said, they didn’t, and we have to see how it shakes out.
On days like the Spring Training game against the Washington Nationals, you worry. Neither Jeurys Familia nor Dellin Betances was good. With respect to the former, Sandy Alderson was noticeably annoyed with his performance.
Familia walked two in a scoreless and hitless inning. Betances also walked two, but he wasn’t nearly as lucky or effective. Betances allowed four runs on two hits and two walks. He yielded a homer to Ryan Zimmerman, who didn’t play last year due to COVID19 concerns.
Neither pitcher struck out a batter.
For Familia, the walks are especially concerning. In his prime, he walked that fine line, but now that he’s older, he’s been falling off the cliff. Frankly, he’s walking far too many batters to be reliable and effective.
The situation is similar for Betances, but at least with Familia, his velocity is there. While it’s usually not there this early for Betances, it seems more of a fait accompli it’s not returning considering it hasn’t been there for two years now.
To wit, Betances is working to adapt to be a more effective pitcher without the velocity.
For both Familia and Betances, it’s clear they both had a lot to work on after last year. That’s just the thing. They’re still working on things. It’s also just their first Spring outings.
Opening Day is still about a month away giving both pitchers time to improve and hone things. Certainly, they can also work on things in-season.
They may succeed, and they may not. They may prove to be nothing more than middle relief rather than the high leverage relievers they once were.
There’s an important consideration there. No one said they need to pitch the seventh or eighth inning. For that, the Mets already have Trevor May and will be getting Seth Lugo back at some point before that All-Star Break.
There’s talented young arms behind them. Drew Smith is pushing his way to the majors, and Miguel Castro will be on the roster. He may just be THIS CLOSE to a breakout too.
Robert Gsellman has shown flashes of brilliance when used judiciously in the pen. Joey Lucchesi profiles as a potential top end reliever, and who knows what Jordan Yamamoto could do there if given the chance. That’s nothing to say of the veterans like Tommy Hunter who are fighting for a job.
The overriding point is the talent is here, and it doesn’t need to be Familia and Betances back to their dominant forms for this bullpen to succeed. What the Mets need is for Jeremy Hefner to get through to these relievers, the front office to provide the coaching staff with useful data, and for Luis Rojas to put them all in a position to succeed.
Overall, it’s just way too sook to freak out about the bullpen. It may still be great. It may also falter. The thing is we don’t know which direction it will go based on one Spring Training game. In fact, we may not really know until a month into the season.
So just calm down, and let’s see how this all shakes out.