Jeremy Accardo
One of the better things the New York Mets did for the 2021 season was to have a second season with the Tom Seaver patch. While it was worn in memorium in 2020, this year, it was to celebrate his life and accomplishments.
The Mets have so far done well to honor Seaver. With his 41 on their right arms, the Mets pitching staff leads the majors in ERA and FIP. Put another way, when emblazoned with the best on their right arms, they’ve been the best staff in the league.
Of course, that all starts with Jacob deGrom. Not only is deGrom the best pitcher in baseball, like Seaver once was, but he’s also challenging many of Seaver’s records.
Certainly, part of what the Mets are doing can be attributed to the excellent staff they’ve assembled. Moreover, Luis Rojas, Jeremy Hefner, and Jeremy Accardo have done an amazing job, which deserves all the accolades and superlatives you can give them.
Still, there’s some magic with Seaver’s number on the jerseys. There’s also something to be said for The Franchise to be a part of the Mets uniform. After all, there’s no rule which states you can’t forever honor a player like this.
Overall, Seaver is the Mets, and he always will be that. He’s arguably more important to the Mets than any player is to any franchise. He should be recognized and honored as such with his number forever a part of the Mets jerseys.
The New York Mets seemingly have a million different issues thus far, but as we saw in their sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, it is not stopping them from winning games:
1. The biggest issue the Mets have right now is the health of Jacob deGrom. Fortunately, his MRI was clean, and even better, the team is taking a cautious approach by putting him on the IL.
2. The Mets are getting next to nothing from their starting rotation right now, and it is not stopping them from winning games because the bullpen has been phenomenal. There is a lot of credit due to Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy Accardo, and Luis Rojas for not only getting the most out of them, but also for putting them all in positions to succeed.
3. If Edwin Diaz is bailing the Mets out of innings, and he is getting five out saves, this Mets team is going to be completely unstoppable.
4. The Mets are in first place right now without Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, Seth Lugo, and Brandon Nimmo. It is high time the narrative on Rojas shifts from over his head to being a good manager. At this pace, he may emerge as a real Manager of the Year candidate.
5. We don’t know what happened between Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor in that tunnel, but we do know it has not stopped them from turning absolutely incredible double plays.
6. The coverage of the “ratcoon” story was all the more puzzling when you consider everything the press looked the other way on when the Wilpons were in control. Apparently harassment of women and interfering with medical decisions didn’t need the serious reporting a fight between teammates warranted.
7. The press feeling insulted by Lindor “lying” to them is tough to take. After all, J.D. Davis lied to their faces about his involvement in the Astros sign stealing scandal, and they didn’t seem to remotely care.
8. At the moment, it seems like Tomas Nido is outplaying James McCann. The problem for any organization is determining whether Nido is superior to McCann or if McCann just needs some additional time to return to his expected form. Many times, it is decisions like these which define a season.
9. The Mets are getting a lot of production out of their bench. As noted, Nido is actually outplaying McCann. We also see Kevin Pillar playing very well in all aspects over the last few weeks. If he can keep this up, he is going to make decisions very difficult for the Mets.
10. If Dominic Smith is going to continue to struggle at the plate and in the field, and Pete Alonso is going to continue to play defense this well, it is going to be very difficult to find Smith playing time. The hope is the firing of Chili Davis could help turn around his season.
11. Once again, Michael Conforto appears to be a very good baseball players, and we are starting to see him pick it up defensively. It just goes to show you not to over rely or overreact to players have slow starts.
12. Jonathan Villar had a golden opportunity to claim himself an everyday job with Davis and Luis Guillorme injured. With his struggles at the plate and seeing him let a pop up fall, he’s cementing himself as a pure bench option.
13. With Villar’s struggles and Albert Almora flat out not hitting, if you look forward, perhaps the Mets could look to bring back old friend Asdrubal Cabrera for bench help for the postseason. Yes, this classifies as getting ahead of ourselves, but we should be embracing the excitement of the moment.
14. David Peterson is certainly making things easy on what the Mets should do when Carrasco and Syndergaard are ready to return from the IL.
15. One of the most bizarre things happening right now is Patrick Mazeika‘s penchant for pinch hit RBI where he doesn’t actually deliver a hit. So far, he has had an extra innings fielder’s choice and a bases loaded walk.
16. One of the biggest shames of the ratcoon fallout is seeing Mazeika not get celebrated for his first career walk off hit.
17. It’s not only funny to see Trevor Bauer up in arms over the Los Angeles Dodgers struggling, but it is downright hilarious he is being outpitched by Taijuan Walker so far this season. And yes, that is happening with Walker having a better ERA+ and FIP than Bauer.
18. For all the problems with the Mets offense, with their pitching, they only need to get to four runs. When that has happened this year, the Mets are 15-2.
19. The Mets do have a negative run differential, but that is partially fueled by their 12 run loss against the Cubs. If you take that game out of the equation, they would have a positive nine run differential, which would be good for sixth in the NL. Put another way, aside from one game, they’ve been in the upper echelon of the NL.
20. The Mets being able to play games has clearly been good for them. They’re getting into a rhythm offensively and defensively. As we see them play more and more games, we can see them get better and better. They’re in first place now, and who knows just how far they will go from here.
Game Recaps
Francisco Lindor and Mets Show Some Fight
With reports the Tampa Bay Rays are willing to entertain trades for Blake Snell, this would seemingly be the perfect time for the New York Mets to act. When you look at it, Snell would presumably fill a short and long term fit for the franchise.
Even with Marcus Stroman in the fold, the Mets need to find at least one more starting pitcher. Ideally, they would want two more. Snell would not only fill that need, but he could help make the Mets rotation once again the envy of all of baseball.
Snell also would fill another starting pitching need. After the 2021 season, Steven Matz, Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. That will leave the Mets looking to fill at least 2/5 of their 2022 starting rotation. If you have Snell in the fold that will lessen that burden. The question for the Mets is how much Snell would be worth pursuing.
When many look at Snell, they see the pitcher who won the 2018 Cy Young Award. Our lasting impression of him was his dominant performance in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series before he was inexplicably lifted early. When you look at him from that lens, Snell is an ace level pitcher. When an ace level pitcher available, you need to pursue that pitcher heavily.
However, there are real questions if that is what Snell truly is. Really, when you break it down, Snell’s 2018 Cy Young award winning season has been a complete outlier in his career.
In Snell’s first two seasons, he had a 108 ERA+, 3.87 FIP, 4.5 BB/9, and an 8.9 K/9 while averaging 5.0 innings per start. In the two seasons since winning his Cy Young, Snell had a 111 ERA+, 3.65 FIP, 3.3 BB/9, and a 12.0 K/9 while averaging 4.2 innings per start. Certainly, these past two years have been a significant improvement over what he was over his first two years, but those stats are not remotely indicative of an ace level pitcher.
Of course, this is the Rays, so the analysis is not that simple. Remember, the Rays focus on not allowing their pitchers to go through the rotation a certain amount of times, and they are very strong believers in bullpenning. As a result, it is very arguable their handling of Snell has stunted his ability to again be what he was in 2018.
Taking a deeper look, Snell does have good stuff. Looking at his Baseball Savant page, Snell has elite to near elite fastball velocity and spin, and he has terrific whiff numbers. However, that is only part of the picture. When you dig deeper, you see his spin rates on his change and curve have significantly worsened since his Cy Young season. That said, after struggling with his slider in 2019, he was able to regain his slider spin rate in 2020.
All told, it is really difficult to ascertain what Snell’s trajectory will be. You could argue this is a pitcher who needs to get away from Tampa Bay to permit him to really focus on being able to become the ace level pitcher he can be instead of a five inning starter. You could also argue the Rays know his limitations and that their handling of him allows him to put up such high strikeout numbers, and as a result, with another organization, he may truly suffer.
In some ways, when you see the Rays dangling Snell, you can’t help but be gun shy due to the Chris Archer trade. For many, Archer was a pitcher who could thrive away from Tampa Bay. He was a pitcher with a similarly team friendly contract, and as a result, the Rays were able to extract a kings ransom for him. Now, Archer had his option declined due to TOS issues, and the Pirates are routinely chided for giving up Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz.
That’s not to say or suggest the Rays knowingly traded damaged goods. That is an unfair and unsubstantiated claim. Rather, this just highlights how well the Rays self scout their team, and it shows their ability to extract a significant price in return for their players. Assuredly, if the Rays do in fact trade Snell, they are likely going to try to command an Archer like return, and really, they should do that.
If you are a team like the Mets, and you want Snell, you better be right. You need the utmost confidence in Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy Accardo, and Phil Regan in their ability to not only return Snell to his 2018 form but to keep him there for the ensuing three seasons. If you are not, the Mets as an organization should not be pursuing Snell. Instead, they can look towards a very interesting starting pitching market which still has Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, Jose Quintana, and others available.
Better yet, they could be using their financial capital to give Stroman and Syndergaard extensions while keeping their player capital in place to swing deals for other areas of need. That said, adding Snell to those two starters and Jacob deGrom is awfully enticing . . . .
Make no mistake, Steven Matz was an unmitigated disaster in 2020. He had a very good start on the second day of the season, but he just kept getting worse and worse.
He had a 44 ERA+ and a 7.76 FIP. He allowed 4.1 homers per nine. His 9.68 ERA was unseemly.
Under no circumstances would you tender a pitcher like him a contract. You non-tender him and make decisions from there. However, the Mets are not really in a position to non-tender him, and aside from that, it would be unwise to non-tender him.
For starters, the free agent starting pitching market is a mess. Beyond Marcus Stroman and Trevor Bauer, the pitchers available are really not guaranteed to be any better than what Matz could give you on what will essentially be a one year deal.
As an organization, you’re in a better position to take a pitcher you know and work with him than go with another pitcher and start from square one. On that note, the Mets should be better equipped to get Matz right.
Entering next season, Steve Cohen has promised to beef up the Mets analytics departments and to upgrade the Mets technology. This means Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy Accardo, and even Phil Regan have more at their disposal to get Matz pitching to how we know he can.
We’ve seen that Matz not too long ago. In the second half of the 2019 season, he seemingly turned the corner.
While working with Regan and Accardo, Matz finished the season going 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA over his final 13 starts. This wasn’t a complete anomaly for Matz. At different points of his career, he’s shown this ability.
Matz was this good in 2015 through the first half of 2017. Again, he had a strong first half in 2018.
There’s a lot you can take away from this. It’s certainly possible injuries took their toll. Maybe, even to this point, he’s battling inconsistency. It’s also possible the Mets increasingly worse defense have had an impact on him. There’s many possible theories and explanations which can be proffered.
Lost in any of them is Matz is a good pitcher who has shown the ability to be a quality Major League starter. For a brief moment, it did appear as if 2020 was going to be the year he took his game to the next level.
During Spring Training, there were reports of his having increased velocity and being ahead of where he’s been in previous seasons.
The first thing Luis Rojas mentioned about Steven Matz's performance in Camp: his increased velocity.
Said he's been mid-to-upper 90s with really good velo differential on his curveball.
"I was pumped," Rojas said.
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) July 21, 2020
The best pitcher in baseball, Jacob deGrom, was impressed with Matz before the 2020 started saying Matz was pitching “maybe the best I’ve seen him in a long time.” (William Bradford Davis, New York Daily News). He also said of Matz, “I think the upside’s unbelievable.”
That’s the real issue with Matz – the upside is there. It’s incumbent on them to unlock it.
Again, based on the free agent market, there’s not a definitive better option. Also, due to Brodie Van Wagenen’s stripping the Mets pitching depth for no good reason, there’s no one coming through the Mets pipeline to help in 2021.
That leaves keeping Matz as a necessity. They need to figure him out, or possibly, make him a left-handed Seth Lugo in the bullpen. With the state Van Wagenen will be leaving the Mets, that’s it.
Matz is a real asset. With Cohen, they’ll have the people and technology in place to help Matz take his game to the next level. With Sandy Alderson, they have the people in place who were able to help get consistent performances from Matz.
In the end, the Mets need Matz. They should be preparing to tender him a deal and set him up for his best season yet. If for no other reason, there’s really no better option available.