Jay Bruce
For those of us that forget, the New York Mets really had no interest in re-signing Jose Reyes after the 2011 season. When he signed with the Marlins in the offseason, there was a war of words between the two camps with Reyes saying he never received an offer, and Sandy Alderson saying Reyes’ agent was aware of the framework of the type of deal the Mets might be willing to do.
Since leaving the Mets, Reyes was roundly booed as a member of the Marlins, was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, and finally had an overly brief and turbulent career with the Colorado Rockies. For reasons we all know, and need not be discussed in-depth at the moment, it led to the Rockies releasing Reyes. This also led to Reyes re-uniting with the Mets.
Last year, he was decent with the Mets helping the team make the postseason by obtaining the top Wild Card spot. The Mets brought him back as David Wright insurance, and he has struggled for most of the season. So far, Reyes is hitting .231/.293/.392. That’s good for a 79 OPS+ and a -0.8 WAR. Not to belabor what you already know, but Reyes has been a bad baseball player.
It’s bizarre we all know it, but the Mets don’t. Reyes’ 90 games played leads the Mets this season. Part of that is he hasn’t been hurt. An even bigger part of that is Terry Collins and the Mets organization won’t or can’t admit Reyes isn’t good. This is of course reflected in how the social media team has inundated us with Reyes since the All Star Break with tweets like this:
A man of the people. pic.twitter.com/Ovn5sg29Ce
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 12, 2017
Jacob deGrom is the ace. Michael Conforto is the All Star. Yoenis Cespedes is the most important player. Curtis Granderson is the role model. Addison Reed, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jay Bruce are the players on the trade block. Yet, somehow, the Mets have made it a point to feature Reyes despite his poor play and his personal issues.
Yes, Reyes has played better of late, but he has been nowhere near as good as Conforto, Duda, deGrom, or Seth Lugo. You wouldn’t know that by looking at how the Mets promote their players.
Sure, this is a silly gripe, but when the Mets have nothing to play for this season, you tend to notice these things. Maybe if the Mets did the right thing by calling up Amed Rosario fans could focus on that. Maybe, just maybe, the team could promote him. I think we can all agree that is beneficial for everyone.
With the Yankees pulling off that blockbuster last night, which included Todd Frazier, one of the few logical landing spots for Lucas Duda might have been eliminated. Considering the Tigers got a less than impressive haul for J.D. Martinez, who was widely considered the best bat on the trade market, it makes you wonder if the Mets are going to be able to get anything of value in exchange for their trade pieces – namely Duda. Certainly, that is troubling considering the Mets don’t want to lose the impending free agent without getting anything in return for him.
The soon to be 32 year old Duda is having another good year at the plate for the Mets. Through 67 games, the slugger is hitting .244/.351/.542 with 16 homers and 34 RBI. His 132 wRC+ is in the top 10 in the major leagues among first baseman with at least 250 plate appearances. Essentially, Duda is in the top third of first baseman. It is a position he has been since he took over the first base job from Ike Davis in 2014.
Arguably, a player like that is a second round draft pick or similar talent as the new free agent compensation system in place awards teams a second round pick for players the reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere.
Generally, one WAR is worth approximately $8 million. (Business Insider). In 2014 and 2015, Duda averaged a 3.3 WAR. After a lost year last year, Duda is seemingly back to being that player, which would make him worth about $26 million per year. With last year’s qualifying offer being $17.2 million, Duda is arguably worth whatever the qualifying offer number will be for the 2018 season.
But there is a difference between being worth the money and whether giving Duda roughly $20 million is a good allocation of resources. The Mets have significant holes that need to be addressed this offseason. The team needs to overhauled their bullpen. They also need a second baseman, third baseman, center fielder, and possibly a catcher. With the 22 year old former first round pick Dominic Smith waiting in the wings, the real question is whether another year of Duda is worth it?
There’s just no clear cut answer to that question. As easily as you can point to Duda’s production and the value in giving Smith more time to develop in the minors, you can also argue Duda hinders the Mets ability to build the best possible team in 2018. Moreover, there is the risk Duda could re-injure his back.
Of course, Duda can also reject the qualifying offer. Coming off his 2014 season, he rejected a three year $30 million contract extension. He could similarly reject a qualifying offer to get the contract he believes he is worth.
No matter which direction the Mets go there is a risk. Considering the likely worst case scenario is the Mets are stuck with a first baseman with a good OBP capable of hitting 30 homers a year, keeping him instead of moving him for something less than what he is worth is a risk well worth taking.
When all hope is lost, the main reason to watch the Mets is Jacob deGrom. He started today, and he delivered.
While deGrom may not have been as dominant as he has been over this stretch, he was still great. For the first six innings, no Cardinal player reached third base. In fact, the Cardinals only reached second base twice in the game.
deGrom’s final line was 6.2 innings, seven hits, one run, one earned, one walk, and three strikeouts.
That one run shouldn’t have scored. Luke Voit had a hard hit ball to the wall Yoenis Cespedes fielded cleanly, and he had Voit dead to rights at second. Only issue is Asdrubal Cabrera didn’t bother to cover second.
Instead a run scored, deGrom got his ovation, and Paul Sewald got the Mets out of the inning.
With deGrom going like this, you knew the Mets needed one, maybe two runs to win the game.
Mets took care of that and then some. This should come as no surprise as the Mets have now averaged 7.4 runs per game over deGrom’s now seven game winning streak.
In the first, the Mets put three runs on the board and all were with three outs. A Cespedes single scored Cabrera. Lucas Duda doubled home Cespedes, and Wilmer Flores brought him home with an RBI single.
Flores getting the start was interesting, especially with the right-handed Mike Leake getting the start for the Cardinals. Perhaps it was due to T.J. Rivera making two errors yesterday. Maybe Terry Collins just wanted to give Flores a game after he’s sat for so long. Maybe it’s due to the tumors the Red Sox may have interest in him.
In any event, Flores had a good game with that RBI single and a nice play in the field:
? Wilmer! ? pic.twitter.com/Zpkl4Lc4wo
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 20, 2017
After the good first inning, the Mets had a better second inning. Michael Conforto got things started with a single, and he moved to third on a Jedd Gyorko error allowing Cabrera to reach.
Jay Bruce hit an RBI single, and Cespedes followed with an RBI double making it 6-0. After Duda was intentionally walked Jose Reyes singled home Cespedes to make it a 7-0 game.
It should’ve been a laugher. It wasn’t.
In the eighth, Sewald was pulled by Collins with two on, two out, and back-to-back lefties due up for the Cardinals. Rather than find something out about Sewald in a 7-1 game and rest his bullpen with a noon game tomorrow, Collins couldn’t help himself. He went to a completely worn down Jerry Blevins.
While Blevins has been great most of the year, he has struggled mightily since June 1st. In that time, Blevins has a 5.84 ERA and batters are hitting .269/.367/.423 off of him.
Left-handed batters Kolten Wong and Magneuris Sierra hit consecutive singles to make it 7-3. With those two singles, Blevins has now allowed 25 inherited runners to score this year, which is the fifth worst in the majors.
After Blevins walked the pinch hitter, pitcher Adam Wainwright, to load the bases, Collins had to go to Addison Reed for the four out save.
As Reed is really the only remaining reliever who is reliable left in that bullpen, it should be no surprise Reed made quick work of the Cardinals for his 16th save of the season.
With the 7-6 win, the Mets have an opportunity for the split tomorrow.
Game Notes: Josh Edgin has allowed more inherited runners to score than Blevins with 29. That’s the third worst mark in the majors.
Because nothing can ever go easy for the Mets, we got to see Yoenis Cespedes leave the game after this awkward slide in the sixth inning:
"We were just talking about the health of his legs." No kidding. pic.twitter.com/qcn4Ug9CDR
— Meditations in Panic City (@MedInPanicCity) July 16, 2017
Before that play, things could not be going better for the Mets. After yesterday’s 14-2 victory, the Mets quickly went up 8-0 in tonight’s game.
After Tyler Chatwood issued back-to-back walks to Michael Conforto and Asdrubal Cabrera to begin the top of the first, Jay Bruce would drive them all home:
https://twitter.com/therendermlb/status/886367979788791808
The rally continued, and the Mets would score their fourth run when Travis d’Arnaud would single home T.J. Rivera. Rivera had reached via the walk. After he walked, Chsteood came out of the game due to injury.
As if four first inning runs weren’t enough, the Mets would pile on three more in the second inning.
The second inning runs were all unearned as Bruce reached on a two out error by DJ LeMahieu. The Mets did capitalize starting with a Rivera RBI single scoring Cespedes. Bruce and Rivera would score on a Lucas Duda RBI double.
The Mets eighth run would be provided by Lugo himself:
https://twitter.com/therendermlb/status/886382537244913665
As you can surmise from Bruce, the Mets pulled that old shtick:
Silent treatment for Seth Lugo….very sad. pic.twitter.com/Tu9N5FQCj1
— MetsKevin11 (@MetsKevin11) July 16, 2017
Lugo’s first career home run was certainly a high light, but it was not his only highlight of the evening. Lugo went out there, and he dominated the Rockies for five innings.
The Rockies did get to him for two in the sixth with the help of Cespedes’ aforementioned divot. The double set up second and third with one out. After a Gerardo Parra sacrifice fly and a Raimel Tapia double, the Rockies pulled within 8-2.
The Rockies tacked on another run in the seventh on a Charlie Blackmon two out RBI triple. At that point, Terry Collins wasn’t taking any chances. He brought in Paul Sewald, who struck out LeMahieu to get out of the inning. That strikeout closed the books on a terrific start for Lugo.
Lugo’s final line was 6.2 innings, seven hits, three runs, three earned, two walks, and five strikeouts.
He would get the win as Sewald, Jerry Blevins, and Addison Reed would combine to pitch 3.1 scoreless.
With the scoreless work out of the bullpen, and a Reyes’ eighth inning homer, the Mets would win 9-3.
With the win, the Mets are now 8.5 games behind the Rockies for the second Wild Card, and the team is six games under .500. The team is beginning to make a run. The question right now if this is too little too late . . . especially with Cespedes having to leave the game.
Game Notes: Curtis Granderson replaced Cespedes in the sixth. The Mets have now won
If the Mets really want to go on that second half run like they’ve done the past two years, the run needs to begin now. It needs to begin now because the Mets have put themselves in a deep enough hole. It needs to happen now because the Rockies are in town.
For the Mets to get on that run, their pitching needs to be great, and Yoenis Cespedes needs to get going. Tonight, that happened.
Jacob deGrom shook off an unearned first inning run to completely dominate the Rockies. Over eight innings, he only allowed four hits, two runs, one earned, and one walk with 10 strikeouts.
The Rockies had an opportunity to score a third run in the sixth, but Cespedes nailed DJ LeMahieu at home plate. It was a typically strong throw from Cespedes, and it was a great tag by Travis d’Arnaud. The lesson as always is you do not run on the tandem of Cespedes and TdA.
Got heeeeeem! @ynscspds shows off the cannon to nail the runner at the plate. ?
9-2 #Mets | Mid-6 pic.twitter.com/F0qoQuDZP6
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 15, 2017
In addition to this throw, Cespedes was great at the plate once again going 4-6 with a run, double, and an RBI.
Two of Cespedes’ hits came in a six run third inning where the Mets knocked Rockies starter Jon Gray out of the game, and they blew the game open.
Cespedes got the inning started with a double. Both he and Jay Bruce would score on a T.J. Rivera RBI double. Rivera would come around to score on a Jose Reyes single.
The Mets would keep the rallying going loading the bases with no outs. After a deGrom strikeout, Mets All Star Michael Conforto knocked in a run with an RBI groundout. An Asdrubal Cabrera RBI single later, and the Mets were up 8-2.
From there, the Mets used a pair of homers to tack on runs:
https://twitter.com/therendermlb/status/886026068272062464
https://twitter.com/therendermlb/status/886039800356188161
Rockies reliever Scott Oberg loaded the bases in the eighth, and he walked Cabrera to bring home the 13th run. Cespedes followed with an RBI infield single to cap off the Mets scoring on the night.
It was a complete offensive onslaught where every batter in the Mets lineup reached base at least two times. That includes deGrom, who is a good hitter in his own right:
Jacob deGrom has a league leading 12 hits as a pitcher, second most is three guys with 8.
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) July 15, 2017
This is the type of onslaught where you can at least dream of the Mets making a run. Certainly, there’s an opportunity ahead of the trade deadline. There’s an opportunity when the Mets playing up to their abilities like they did in tonight’s 14-2 victory.
Game Notes: This was deGrom’s seventh double digit strikeout game and 17th of his career. Nolan Arenado seemed to injure his hip running through the bag at first base, but initially stayed in the hand. Later, he was pulled. It was unknown if an issue flared or if it was due to the blowout. Josh Edgin pitched a scoreless ninth.
The Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox unofficially opened trading season with the blockbuster deal sending LHP Jose Quintana to the Cubs for four prospects including top prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease. The trade was another large prospect haul for the White Sox who are masterfully rebuilding their team. The trade also addressed an area of need for the Cubs.
With the Cubs addressing a real area of need, it makes the Mets pipe-dream of acquiring the second Wild Card all that more improbable. It could also mean the Cubs could likely be out on the Mets biggest trade assets in Addison Reed and Jerry Blevins. With the Cubs getting that much better, it also makes you question how many of the National League teams within shouting distance of a postseason spot would be willing to now swing a deal with the Mets.
On the bright side, this is the second year in a row prices at the trade deadline have been high. The Yankees completely turned around their farm system with the Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller trades. The White Sox have just added two more big prospects. Considering Sandy Alderson was able to get Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud for R.A. Dickey, you can only imagine what the Mets are going to get for Reed, Blevins, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, and Curtis Granderson.
It appears the time to make a deal is now. It’s time for teams like the Brewers to make a big deal to try to solidy their spot atop the Central. The Diamondbacks and Rockies need to deal to fend off the Cubs as well. The Dodgers need another piece to try to make themselves a proverbial super team. As we know the Nationals need an entire bullpen. Throw in a wide open American League, and the Mets have an opportunity.
The time is now for the Mets to sell. Hopefully, they can take advantage of the this opportunity and bring back pieces that can help the Mets win in 2018.
Now that the first half of the baseball season has ceremoniously ended with the American League beating the National League in the All Star Game, it is time to see what the second half of the season looks like for the Mets.
At the moment, the Mets currently sit at fourth place in the National League East with a 39-47 record. They are 12 games behind the Nationals in the Division, and they are 10.5 games behind the Colorado Rockies for the second Wild Card. In addition to the Rockies, the Mets also trail the Cubs, Cardinals, Braves, Pirates, and Marlins.
In the second half of the season, the Mets have 68 games remaining with them split-up evenly between the home and road. At home, the Mets opponents have a combined .511 winning percentage. Their road opponents have a .499 winning percentage. The combined winning percentage of all of their opponents is .505.
The respective winning percentages are skewed by the Mets having a home series against the Dodgers and the Mets having a road series against the Astros. Taking those two series out of the equation, the respective winning percentages fall to .494 at home, .481 on the road, and .488 combined. More to the point, if the Mets can just hold their own in those six games, the Mets have a slate of winnable games in front of them.
The question is whether the Mets will have enough to win those winnable games. At the moment, the Mets are planning to sell. If there are takers, the Mets will likely part ways with Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, and Addison Reed. If any one of these players are moved, the Mets chances of winning games will likely take a hit. That goes double for Reed, who right now is the only reliable arm in the bullpen.
But maybe the Mets don’t sell.
Right out of the break, the Mets host the Rockies and the Cardinals. The Rockies are in the middle of a stretch that has seen them lost 13 of their last 17 games. It’s not exactly like the Rockies lost just against the best teams in baseball either. They were swept by the Giants, and they split a series with the Reds.
The Mets did just play a close series against the Cardinals. There is a legitimate reason to believe that with a different setting in Citi Field, the Mets could flip the script. That becomes more feasible when you consider the Cardinals are a dismal road team.
After that, Mets get to face the Athletics and Padres who are two of the worst teams in baseball. At that point, it is certainly possible the Mets could be in a different position come trade deadline time. Maybe the Mets will be in a position to add to the bullpen rather than decimate it with a Reed trade. As we see, they certainly have some pieces to trade to do that.
Ultimately, that has been the frustrating part of this season. The door has been open the whole time, and the Mets have yet to truly enter into a race for the postseason. The good news is there are about two weeks until the trade deadline. At that point, the Mets will have a clear direction.
They will be either gearing up for another improbable run to the postseason, or they will have a youth movement with the Mets finally giving a chance to Amed Rosario, Dominic Smith, and Gavin Cecchini.
To that end, no matter what happens over the next couple of weeks, the fans will have reason to watch in August and September. You will either have a team racing for the postseason supplemented by players coming back from injury, or they will have some young players beginning to make their mark on the league.
After the Mets pulled out a 6-4 win over the Cardinals, there was hope for the team to at least take the series and leap over one team ahead of them in the race for the second Wild Card. As Noah Syndergaard will tell you, the Mets are the second half team. If you wanted a glimmer of hope, here it was.
On Saturday, there was hope. Zach Wheeler turned his season around allowing just two earned over six innings. When Jay Bruce homered to start the seventh inning, and the Mets knocked Adam Wainwright out of the game, there was a chance. Then Fernando Salas came into the game. He was dreadful as usual, and the relievers that followed weren’t much better. A one run deficit became a three run lead too much for the Mets to overcome.
From there, things fell apart. For the first time all season, Steven Matz just didn’t have it allowing five runs over 4.1 inning. The Mets offense could only muster three hits off of Lance Lynn. With that, the momentum from Friday night’s victory was gone. Quite possibly, hope for the Mets making any sort of run in the second half of the season.
Heading into the break, the Mets are 39-47 getting outscored by their opponents by 47 runs. They are 12 games behind the Nationals in the National League East. The team is 10.5 games behind the second Wild Card. Worse than that, the Mets are 5-21 against teams with a winning record.
Every time you want hope, the Mets make sure to take it away. Perhaps, it is better this way. It is time for everyone to admit this team is going nowhere. It is time to sell. It is time for Dominic Smith, Gavin Cecchini, and Amed Rosario to show the Mets what they are capable of doing. With them playing everyday, it is possible we can all begin to hope again.
Normally, when your team walks away from a from bases loaded no outs in the first inning, and the Mets only walk away with one run, you begin to brace yourself for a long night.
Except tonight, the Mets had Jacob deGrom on the mound, and deGrom has been in one of the best stretches of his career. Given the fact that he’s pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last four starts allowing one run or less in each of those starts, there was every chance deGrom could make that run stand.
So while a Jay Bruce strikeout and a Lucas Duda GIDP bracketed a T.J. Rivera RBI HBP, the Mets got a lead for their ace. In the second, the Mets went up 2-0 on a Jose Reyes lead-off homer off Carlos Martinez, it looked like deGrom had all the room he needed.
Then, the Cardinals bats came alive.
Over a span of seven batters between the third and fourth innings, the Cardinals would hit four homers against deGrom. There were back-to-back homers by Randal Grichuk and Paul DeJong in the third, and back-to-back homers again in the fourth. This time it was by Dexter Fowler and Jedd Gyorko.
Fortunately for deGrom, they were all solo shots. Fortunately for the Mets, Martinez struggled even worse.
In the top of the fourth, Reyes led off with a double, and Travis d’Arnaud singled him home. Somewhat surprisingly, deGrom would swing away, and he’d hit into a fielder’s choice. The poor Cardinals defense would rue not turning the double play when Curtis Granderson doubled him home.
After the Cardinals tied the game with the aforementioned fourth inning homers, Bruce would untie the game:
https://twitter.com/therendermlb/status/883506208082100226
In the seventh, Rivera plated another run with a double scoring Yoenis Cespedes, who began the inning reaching on a Matt Carpenter error. Basically, Cespedes drilled a grounder that sometimes second baseman just could not field.
The hit must’ve been some relief for Rivera. He had been stinging the ball all night, but this double was the only hit he had to show for it.
The Mets came out of that seventh inning with another run giving them a 6-4 lead, but it should have been more.
After Cespedes reached on an error, Bruce had a terrible slide into second base. Instead of runners on second and third with no outs, there was a runner at third with one out.
After the Rivera double, Reyes was hit by a pitch, but d’Arnaud couldn’t deliver the two out RBI. This didn’t give the Mets pitching much margin for error.
For his part, deGrom was good with this two run lead. He’d pitch seven innings allowing just eight hits (four homers). He stuck out five while walking none. All in all, it was a good outing that gave the Mets a chance to win.
Jerry Blevins was first out of the pen with the assignment to get Carpenter. As noted by Gary Cohen, the oft used Blevins had a noticeable dip in velocity, and Carpenter took advantage ripping a single through the shift. With a group of right-handed batters following, Terry Collins brought in Paul Sewald.
Sewald allowed a single to the first batter he faced, Stephen Piscotty. After that, Sewald induced a double play ball off the bat of Fowler. However, the ball got stuck in Asdrubal Cabrera‘s glove. That hesitation prevented any chance of turning two with the speedy Fowler. In fact, Reyes didn’t even bother to throw to first.
Gyorko would hit a long sacrifice fly to pull the Cardinals within 6-5. Yadier Molina then got a hold of one that seemed destined to give the Cardinals the lead. Instead, the ball fell harmlessly into Cespedes’ glove.
This meant Addison Reed had no cushion as he sought to concert his 15th save. While the first two batters hit deep liners to center, Granderson was there to make the play. Reed then battled with DeJung, who was having a terrific night at the plate. Reed won the battle striking him out, and deGrom won his fifth consecutive start.
With the win, the Mets are now tied with the Cardinals in the loss column as the two sub-.500 teams run out of time to get into the thick of the Wild Card race.
Game Notes: Michael Conforto took BP before the game, and he’s likely going to be activated tomorrow.
If the Mets are really looking to sell, it is time to get rid of everyone that doesn’t have a contract beyond this season. This means the Mets should part ways with Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Addison Reed, and Rene Rivera. Once Neil Walker is healthy enough to play, the Mets should trade him as well. With the Mets having team options on both Jerry Blevins and Asdrubal Cabrera, they should also get moved in the right trade.
But it’s not just the players. The Mets should also part ways with Terry Collins.
When Collins signed his two year contract in the wake of the 2015 World Series, Collins had indicated it could very well be his last. Even if Collins relented from that position, with each game, it becomes clearer and clearer that Collins will no longer be in the dugout for the Mets in 2018. If that is the case, the Mets should part ways with Collins sooner rather than later.
The perfect time would be as the Mets head into the All Star Break. This could allow the Mets to re-calibrate the coaching staff. Internally, the Mets have some managerial candidates.
First base coach Tom Goodwin was given the opportunity to manage in the Arizona Fall Leauge this past offseason. While he was removed from the Mets coaching staff in the offseason, Tim Teufel has remained with the organization. Both are certainly candidates for the managerial job should it ever open, and both should provide the Mets with as smooth a transition as possible.
There are also minor league managers Luis Rojas and Pedro Lopez. With the Mets likely turning to young players like Gavin Cecchini, Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario, and Dominic Smith, it would be helpful to have a manager with whom they are familiar to ease their transition as everyday players in the majors.
It would also serve as an opportunity to see how any of the aforementioned would serve as a manager at the major league level. If you like what you see with the replacement, you have your answer as to who should be the Mets manager in the future. If that person doesn’t perform well, you at least know you need to move on from that manager and look in a different direction.
Point is if the Mets aren’t going anywhere, they should best utilize that time. That means giving young players an opportunity to establish themselves as everyday players at the major league level. That should also mean finding out who the manager should be in 2018.
It’s time for the Mets to thank Collins for his service as the Mets manager, and possibly find a role for him in the organization. It’s time to close the chapter on his Mets managerial career, and it is time to usher in a new era of Mets baseball.