Jay Bruce

Mets Do Enough to Beat Marlins

After a huge sweep of the Nationals, Mickey Callaway put it to his veterans to see if the veterans wanted the day off after landing in Miami at 5 A.M.  In a promising sign for the season, the Mets players were not overlooking the Marlins, and they all wanted to get right back out there.

Certainly, after all the excitement in Washington, this series was going to be a bit of a let-down. The real challenge was not letting this become a trap series.  Fortunately for the Mets, they had Noah Syndergaard on the mound, which always gives the Mets a big advantage.

The one issue is Thor hasn’t quite been Thor this season.  Even in his Opening Day start when he struck out 10, he allowed four runs.  He didn’t see the fifth inning in his second start, and the early season troubles carried forward into tonight.

His troubles started in the fifth when Amed Rosario didn’t get his glove down on a Brian Anderson grounder.  With Michael Conforto playing deep in an expansive ToMarlins Park outfield that became a two base error.  After two quick outs, Syndergaard issued back-to-back two out walks to Bryan Holaday and Tomas Telis.  This led to a Miguel Rojas RBI single.

In the sixth, Anderson got to Syndergaard again doubling home Starlin Castro, who had led off the inning with a single.  Syndergaard would get out of the inning before allowing any further damage and with the Mets still having a lead.

His final line was 6.0 innings, five hits, two runs, one earned, two walks, and five strikeouts.  No, there is nothing wrong with that start, and with Syndergaard pumping in 94 MPH sliders, there wasn’t anything wrong with his stuff.  However, it just seems like something is just off.  And yet despite, that he got the win.

The Mets would score four runs even with the offense sputtering a bit against Jose Urena and the rest of the Marlins staff.  Despite getting the leadoff runner on in five of the nine innings and the team drawing five walks, they could only push four runs across home plate.  Fortunately, that was plenty.

Rosario got the first rally started with a second inning with a Todd Frazier lead-off walk.  He’d come home to score after ensuing singles from Asdrubal Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez.  The damage might’ve been greater, but Kevin Plawecki hit into a double play.  Cabrera scored on the play giving the Mets a 2-0 lead.

That lead grew to 3-0 in the third on a rally started by a long Rosario double that nearly went out to deep center.  For a moment, it appeared he wasn’t going to score after a Conforto flyout and a Yoenis Cespedes strikeout. Rosario still came to score on a Jay Bruce RBI single.

For his part, Cespedes, who is battling the flu had a tough game at the plate.  He was 0-4 with three strikeouts leaving five Mets on base.  Even with that, he did make a great throw in the outfield:

https://twitter.com/HornikGSN/status/983494562051215360

Really, the Mets should have blown the game open in the seventh.  Gonzalez had a lead-off walk off Junichi Tazawa, and Brandon Nimmo, pinch hitting for Sydnergaard, reached on a Justin Bour throwing error.  Rosario came up and brought home Gonzalez with the one out RBI single to give the Mets a 4-2 lead.

Conforto would then walk to load the bases, but no further damage would be done as Cespedes and Bruce struck out to end the inning.

There are games where the inability to tack on runs comes back to bite you.  With the way the Mets bullpen is pitching this year, today wasn’t that day.

Hansel Robles flirted with trouble in the seventh, but he got out of the inning unscathed.  Jerry Blevins and AJ Ramos combined for a scorless eighth, and Jeurys Familia recorded his sixth save of the season.

It wasn’t an easy save for Familia.  Derek Dietrich hit a double just past the outstretched glove of Bruce to put runners on second and third with one out.  With the tying runs in scoring position, Familia responded by striking out Rojas and Castro to end the game.

The Mets had a tough task ahead of them having to face a bad Marlins team.  Overall, the Mets did what good teams do – they did what they needed to do to beat the bad team.

Game Notes: Juan Lagares did not enter the game for defense in the ninth.  This is the third time in Mets history they started the season 8-1.  In 1985, the Mets won 98 games and missed the postseason. In 2006, they won 97 games en route to winning the NL East.

Mets Beat Nationals Bullpen Again, Familia Great Again

In the Mets first game against the Nationals, the Mets let the Nationals and all of baseball know that at their best, this Mets team is as good as any in all of baseball.  Now, that’s easy when you have Jacob deGrom on the mound, Michael Conforto returning to the lineup, and Yoenis Cespedes hitting homers.  The next question and perhaps the real question is what happens when these factors weren’t present.

Well, with Steven Matz starting and Mickey Callaway giving Juan Lagares the start, the Mets were going to find out.  As it so happened, those questions started to get answered in the second inning.

Brian Goodwin would draw a two out walk, and he’d quickly steal second base on the duo of Matz and Travis d’Arnaud.  On a 3-2 with a chance to get out of the inning, Pedro Severino singled up the middle, and the speedy Goodwin dared challenge Lagares’ arm:

That’s the Gold Glove Lagares who re-emerged last year.  Whether or not his new swing and approach are for rule almost seems inconsequential when he plays center this way.

Another note here is in this game, you got to see all that d’Arnaud is as a catcher.  When his pitchers aren’t even bothering to hold on base runners, much like Matz didn’t in this game, he’s not going to have a real shot to throw out anyone trying to steal a base.  The Nationals know that better than anyone, and they stole five bases in five attempts off of him.

However, he offsets that deficiency in other ways.  As we see in the Lagares play, he’s exceptional in fielding a throw, blocking the plate, and getting the tag down.  Really, he’s the best catcher in baseball on the front.  He’s also a very good pitch framer.  That came into play on a day when Mets pitchers would record 10 strikeouts while walking just three.

That pitch framing led not to not just a third inning strikeout of Anthony Rendon, it also led to his ejection on what was a horrible overreaction by Home Plate Umpire Marty Foster:

That ejection was the Mets gain because Rendon is a great player who kills the Mets.

Even with Matz pitching well, the Mets still could not get ahead of Gio Gonzalez.  That’s not unusual because he came into this game 14-5 with a 2.93 ERA against the Mets in his career.  That left the Mets with little margin for error. That margin of error went away on two plays centered around Todd Frazier.

The first play was in the fourth inning.  Jay Bruce hit a two out double to right.  The much maligned Glenn Sherlock could have sent Frazier to have him challenge Bryce Harper‘s arm.  It would make sense with two outs and Matz due up next.  Instead, Sherlock stopped Frazier, and Matz struck out.

This decision was magnified in the fifth when Frazier threw a ball away on a Michael Taylor grounder.  After a Goodwin sacrifice bunt, Severino plated him with an RBI single giving the Nationals a 1-0 lead.

What made the game interesting and the start of this season interesting was how the Mets immediately responded.  In the sixth, Frazier atoned for his error by hitting an opposite field one out double that nearly went out.  He’d then score on a d’Arnaud RBI single (the other aspect of his being a complete catcher) tying the game at 1-1.  The Mets would have a chance to get the lead, but Jose Reyes could not deliver in a pinch hitting situation.

On came Hansel Robles.

To start the 2018 season, he has been a bit of a revelation.  He went from send down to Triple-A to start the year to getting a big sixth inning opportunity against Harper.  Mets fans expected him to melt down and point to the sky.  Well, in his defense, it was a a really good pitch:

All this proved was Harper is a great player.  What Robles proved from there was he could settle in, limit the damage, and give the Mets a chance.  The Mets took that chance with some exceptional base running in the seventh.

Amed Rosario led off the inning with a single up the middle, and he’d fly around the bases on the ensuing Asdrubal Cabrera RBI double getting just ahead of the Severino tag.  Not to be outdone, Cabrera would go from second to third on a Cespedes grounder to short.  Knowing Ryan Zimmerman can’t throw, the Cabrera, who can’t really run, read the situation perfectly and took the extra base.

After the pinch hitting Conforto was intentionally walked,  Cabrera scored on a Frazier RBI groundout.  The Mets finally had the lead at 3-2, and it was time to see if this so far improved Mes bullpen could hold the lead.

First up was AJ Ramos, who pithced a 1-2-3 seventh.  Surprisingly, the next test went to Jacob Rhame.

Rhame proved up to the task by getting former Met Matt Reynolds to groundout.  What was surprising was where Rhame succeeded, Jerry Blevins didn’t as he issued a one out walk to Harper.  This set the stage for Jeurys Familia.

In what was his biggest moment since he faced Conor Gillaspie in the 2016 Wild Card Game, Familia was in a position to get a big save.  With him needing to get five outs, he was going to be tested.  That should say tested in theory.  The Nationals were no match for him, and as a result, the Mets came away with a 3-2 victory.

It’s April and the season is barely a week old.  However, this is a different Mets team.  They’re getting the most out of every ounce of their ability.  They’re playing smart baseball.  They’re fighting.  They’re special.  They’re showing that to the Nationals, and they may soon show it to the rest of baseball.

Game Notes: Mets pitching has recorded 10 or more strikeouts in six of the seven games they have played.  The one time they did not record 10 strikeouts was in their sole loss of the season.

2015 Feel With deGrom, Cespedes, Bruce Beating Nationals

This might have been the Nationals home opener, but this game certainly had the feel of an Opening Day to the season.  You had a great pitching matchup with Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg.  More than that, as a fan, there was a great sense of anticipation for the matchup.  Not just because of the pitching matchup.  Not just because of the eagerness to see how the Mets matchup against the Nationals.

No, the biggest headline of this day was Michael Conforto making his 2018 debut.

Given the poor run of luck with significant injuries and the ensuing recoveries, you would expect Mets fans to have trepidation.  David Wright and Matt Harvey are Exhibit A and Exhibit B for that.  And yet, for some reason, the Mets fans seemed to have nothing but excitement to see their future superstar return to the Mets ahead of schedule.

Mickey Callaway put him in the lineup as the leadoff hitter and as the center fielder.

It wasn’t the greatest of starts for Conforto, who said he wanted to start today because he wanted Strasburg.  He struck out in his first at-bat against Strasburg on three pitches.  In the bottom of the first, Adam Eaton hit the first pitch over his head for a lead off double.  With Anthony Rendon following with a single on a ball Jay Bruce would bobble, it was quickly 1-o Nationals.

Things would get better for Conforto and deGrom.

Bruce would atone for his error by nearly hitting one out against Strasburg.  Two quick outs later followed by a Kevin Plawecki walk, the Mets had runners at the corners with surprise starter Jose Reyes at the plate.  The Mets didn’t need Reyes to deliver here because Strasburg would balk trying to pick off Plawecki leading to Bruce scoring.

Eaton and Rendon would strike back in the third to give the Nationals the lead again.  Eaton walked, and he would score on a Rendon double.  From that point forward, it was all Mets.

Yoenis Cespedes lead off the fourth with a game tying home run.  As if it wasn’t exciting enough to see Cespedes tying up the game, the Mets would rally in the fifth.

Plawecki led things off with a leadoff single, and he moved to second on a Reyes ground out.  After a deGrom strikeout, that meant it was up to Conforto to try to break the tie.  Up until this point in the game, he struck out on three pitches, and he hit into a double play.  Things did not look great in this at-bat as Strasburg quickly went up 1-2 on him.  Then, Conforto showed us just how healthy he is:

His opposite field home run showed us not just the return of his all field power, but also his great approach at the plate.  In our “Yes, Virginia” moment, we now knew Conforto was alright.

Now, with a 4-2 lead, this put the game in deGrom’s hands.  With his entering the game with an all-time best 1.98 ERA in day games and his being 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in Nationals Park, it looked like it would be smooth sailing for the Mets.

However, this is the Mets and nothing is ever easy.  The Nationals quickly loaded the bases with no outs in the sixth.  This wasn’t helped by deGrom uncharacteristically issuing back-to-back walks to Rendon and Bryce Harper.  With deGrom being the ace that he is, he bore down.

First, he got Ryan Zimmerman to hit a shallow fly to right.  Howie Kendrick hit a laser right at Reyes.  Finally, deGrom struck out Trea Turner on three straight pitches, the last one looking.

It’s still early in the season, and there are 155 games left to be played, but this may prove to be a seminal moment of the 2018 season because after that we didn’t see the Nationals who tortured the Mets in 2014 and 2016.  No, this started to feel like the 2015 season with the Nationals falling apart when pushed by the Mets.

The ungluing happened in the seventh inning.

Turner was ejected for arguing with the home plate umpire, and Brandon Kintzler just didn’t have it.

After the Reyes pop out, Brandon Nimmo pinch hit for deGrom, and he nearly hit one out.  Conforto walked.  After a borderline strike was called to strike out Asdrubal Cabrera, Cespedes and Bruce would get the benefit of the doubt on close pitches.  Both batters would have 3-2 counts.  Cespedes walked, and Bruce hit a grand slam giving the Mets an 8-2 lead.

Jerry Blevins and Robert Gsellman would combine to pitch a perfect seventh.  Hansel Robles navigated through a one out Rendon double while striking out the side.  One his strikeout victims was Harper who is now 1-4 with three strikeouts off Robles.  Seth Lugo would bring it home to preserve the 8-2 win.

Overall, the Mets got a big home run from Cespedes.  They had an injured player come back and provide a huge home run.  One of the Mets aces outpitched one of the Nationals aces.  The Nationals had a key player suffer an injury and another one lose their cool.  The Nationals bullpen melted down while the Mets bullpen was much better than expected.

If I didn’t know any better, I would swear this was August 2015.

Game Notes:  deGrom became the first Met this season to have a quality start.  His final line was 6.0 inning, four hits, two runs, one earned, three walks, and five strikeouts.  After the sixth inning, Eaton left the game with an injury.  He was off to a hot start after tearing his ACL.

 

Somewhat Vintage Harvey in Mets Win

It’s been a few years since Matt Harvey was Matt Harvey.  However, there was hope we would see him again because now the Mets had Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland.  That was not only the tandem who you wanted to help fix a pitcher, but they also believed in Harvey.  Their belief was enough to convince the Mets not to consider trading him.  That faith was something to help give the Mets fans faith in him and the team again in 2018.

For one night, we saw a glimpse of Harvey being a very good pitcher for the Mets yet again.

No, it was not quite vintage Harvey, but he was real good.  Instead of pumping it up to the high 90s to near triple digits, he was living in the lower 90s.  It didn’t matter because it was a good moving and well located fastball.  Put another way, it was good enough to generate a number of swings and misses.  Really, he had all of his pitches working for him including his change-up which looked like a real weapon for him.

However, in some sense this actually was vintage Harvey.  Through his 86 pitches, he walked just one and struck out five.  He limited the Phillies to just one hit and no runs.  Like vintage Harvey, he got no run support.

For a while, it looked like it was going to be the Phillies who plated the first run.  AJ Ramos was in immediate danger after a Cesar Hernandez bunt single and a Carlos Santana walk.  Ramos bore down getting some luck on a hard hit liner hit by Aaron Altherr right at Todd Frazier, and he struck out Rhys Hoskins.

Callaway then went to Jerry Blevins in the sixth inning because that was the moment it called for his LOOGY to get the biggest out of the game.  Blevins did just that by getting Odubel Herrera to pop out.

Having weathered the storm, the Mets offense began to go to work against Ben Lively.  Before the sixth, Lively had actually matched Harvey zero for zero.  However, in the bottom of the sixth, he would be done in by his control and his defense.

Lively put on Yoenis Cespedes by plunking him.  Initially, it looked like Lively was going to stop a rally from building as he got Jay Bruce to hit what should have been a double play ball.  The only problem for the Phillies is third baseman Scott Kingery stayed home at third.  With no one there to field a throw, the only play was at first.

Frazier would make the Phillies pay by ripping an RBI double to left field.  After an Adrian Gonzalez ground out, Travis d’Arnaud would deliver an RBI single giving the Mets a 2-0 lead.

With the previous snow out, the Mets decided to skip Seth Lugo in the rotation.  With him stretch out to start, and with him having no obvious chance to start over the upcoming week, he was in great position to pitch multiple innings.  Lugo did just that by mowing down the Phillies.  In his two innings of work, he struck out four of the six batters he faced.  The two who did manage to make contact didn’t get it out of the infield.

That left Jeurys Familia his old familiar spot in the ninth inning looking to save a close Mets game.  It wasn’t an easy one.  A leadoff walk to Altherr quickly turned to first and third with one out.  Kingery battled, but he eventually fouled out with Wilmer Flores making a nice play by the dugout.  That led to a game ending ground out, and Familia saving the 2-0 win.

One of the things which really stood out in the game was the difference between the Mets and the Phillies choices for manager.  Callaway seems in charge, and he has the Mets playing good baseball.  More than that, his bullpen management tonight was phenomenal.  Gabe Kapler has been a mess, the Phillies are failing to be in position to turn double plays, and the Phillies are now 1-3.

It certainly doesn’t hurt Callaway and the Mets when Harvey is pitching this well.

Game Notes: Jose Reyes got the start making him the last Mets position player to make a start this season.  After drawing a walk in his first at-bat, he was thrown out in his stolen base attempt.  Frazier had another good game going 2-4 with a run, double, and an RBI.

Who’s Better: 2015 or 2018 Mets?

Entering the season, Yoenis Cespedes made the bold declaration the 2018 Mets were better than the 2015 Mets.  Now, if you recall that 2015 team, it did feature players like Eric Campbell and John Mayberry.  However, those players were not on the team at the same time as Cespedes.  When Cespedes joined the Mets, he was on a much better roster, a roster which went all the way to the World Series.

With that consideration, it is certainly bold for Cespedes to make that declaration, but is he right?  Let’s take a look:

CATCHER

2015: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki
2018: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki

Just looking at those names, you may be quick to think not much has changed in the catching situation.  In reality, everything is different, and the main difference is these catchers stand on much different footing.

The 2015 season was d’Arnaud’s best as a player with him posting a 126 OPS+ and emerging as an elite pitch framer.  Plawecki was overmatched at the plate, but he did handle the pitching staff exceptionally well.  Since that time, both had gone on to disappoint in 2016 and much of 2017.

Things changed at the tail end of 2017.  Plawecki finally looked like the player the Mets once thought he would become.  d’Arnaud would finish the season with a strong September.  As a result, they will look to begin the 2018 season in a unique time sharing agreement designed to keep both healthy and effective all year long.

VERDICT: 2018if both replicate their Septembers, this won’t even be close

FIRST BASE

2015: Lucas Duda
2018: Adrian Gonzalez

In 2015, Duda hit .244/.352/.486 with 27 homers and 73 RBI.  He was as streaky as he ever was unable to carry the team when they needed his bat most, and he almost single-handedly beat the Nationals in a key late July series.

Gonzalez is coming off the worst year of his career, and he is still dealing with back issues which requires him to warm up two hours before the game starts.

VERDICT: 2015 Gonzalez may not be around long enough to make a bad throw

SECOND BASE

2015: Daniel Murphy
2018: Asdrubal Cabrera

We got a glimpse of what Murphy would became with him slugging .533 over the final two months of the season. Even with the increased power, no one could predict the home run barrage he’d unleash in the postseason.

For his part, Cabrera finds himself at second a year after protesting moving there or anywhere. He’s been a good hitter with the Mets, and he’s been terrific in the clutch. We’ll see if the injuries will permit him to be that again.

VERDICT: 2015 – Murphy’s postseason was an all-time great one

THIRD BASE

2015: David Wright
2018: Todd Frazier

This was really the last hurrah for Wright in a Mets uniform. He was very good in the 30 games he played after coming off the DL hitting .277/.381/.437. He’d hit two emotional homers: (1) his first at-bat since coming off the DL; and (2) his first World Series at-bat at Citi Field.

Frazier has been a solid to somewhat underrated player. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 34 homers, 88 RBI, and a 110 OPS+. He’s been a good fielder averaging a 5 DRS over that stretch.

VERDICT: 2018 – Frazier is no Wright, but he’s healthy

SHORTSTOP

2015: Ruben Tejada
2018: Amed Rosario

Tejada was not supposed to be the starting shortstop in 2015.  After wasting a few chances which led to Omar Quintanilla getting the bulk of the playing time over him, the Mets moved on to Flores.  Eventually, Collins and the Mets went back to Tejada because: (1) he had steadier hands; and (2) he had a .362 OBP in the second half.  Who knows how everything would have turned out had Chase Utley not broken his leg with a dirty slide/tackle.

Rosario is the future of the Mets.  Yes, there are flaws in his game like his very low walk rate.  However, this is a uniquely gifted player who is dedicated to being better.  He’s electric, and he’s got the skill set to be a superstar for a very long time.  For now, we will settle for him being a good defensive shortstop who brings real speed and upside to the table.

VERDICT: 2018 Rosario’s ceiling is just way too high

OUTFIELD

2015: Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson
2018: Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Cespedes was just an otherworldly player when he joined the Mets.  Despite his only being a Met for a few months, he finished in the Top 15 in MVP voting.  Really, the MVP for the Mets that year was Granderson who was a leader in the clubhouse on the lineup.  He had the most homers from a lead-off hitter, and he was a Gold Glove finalist.  Conforto jumped from Double-A to post a 133 wRC+ and a much better than expected 9 DRS in left.

With respect to the 2018 outfield, we see Conforto is a much better play (when healthy), and Cespedes is nowhere near as good as he was when he joined the Mets.  To be fair, there’s no way he could, but he’s still an All Star caliber player.  This means the main difference between the squads is Bruce and Granderson.

VERDICT: 2015 – That Cespedes was just that much better.

BENCH

2015: Michael Cuddyer, Wilmer Flores, Kelly Johnson, Juan Lagares
2018: Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Reyes

From the moment Uribe and Johnson joined the Mets, they were game changers.  They both brought a winning attitude and game winning hits.  In addition to the two of them, Lagares was the defensive specialist, a role to which he is best suited, and Cuddyer was a platoon partner with either Conforto or Duda depending on whether Lagares started the game as well.  Overall, it was a veteran bench who provided needed leadership.

The Mets current bench is similar to the 2015 bench with Reyes trying to emulate the Uribe role even if he’s not as productive a player.  Flores is Flores, but a better hitter, and believe it or not, a worse fielder.  Lagares rediscovered his range he lost in 2015.  Nimmo should be in the everyday lineup and leading off, but early indications are he won’t.

VERDICT: 2015 – Uribe and Johnson were just that important

ROTATION

2015: Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
2018: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Jason Vargas

When you consider Vargas was basically brought in to replicate what Colon did in 2015, the question is whether you believe the Mets top four starters are better as a group now or then.  Looking at it objectively, Syndergaard is the only one who has improved with no one knowing what Harvey and Matz can still provide.

VERDICT: 2015 – they were just healthier then

BULLPEN

2015: Jeurys Familia, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Jon Niese, Sean Gilmartin, Erik Goeddel
2018: Jeurys Familia, Anthony Swarzak, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Paul Sewald

Familia was that good in 2015 that he was able to cover many of the warts in the 2015 bullpen.  This resulted in Collins using him for multiple innings more than any other closer that year.  Reed would begin his emergence as a great reliever, but a back injury would cost Clippard of his effectiveness.  One surprise was Niese performing well as a lefty in the bullpen.

When you include Sewald’s Triple-A experience, this is a bullpen with three closers, six pitchers with closer’s stuff, and a very good LOOGY in Blevins.  Even if Familia is not as good as he was in 2015, it won’t matter because there is enough depth here for the Mets to not need to rely upon him as much.

VERDICT: 2018 – they’re just deeper and with more upside

MANAGER

2015: Terry Collins
2018: Mickey Callaway

For all the warts and problems Mets fans discovered with Collins, he had his finest year as a manager in 2015.  When the ship could have sunk multiple times, he pulled the team together and kept things afloat until the team got healthy and reinforcements arrived.  Of course, he followed this up by helping cost the Mets the World Series with a series of baffling decisions which all blew up in the Mets faces.

Right now, Callaway looks like a genius.  He’s innovative batting Cespedes second and Rosario ninth.  He came down hard on Dominic Smith for being late.  His players seem to love him, and the baseball world roundly believes the Mets made an excellent hire.  However, the season isn’t even a week old.  Even if everyone is a fan at the moment, let’s check back in a couple of months to see if he’s an innovative genius or if he’s a know-it-all who can’t leave good enough alone.

Verdict: 2018 – Collins did cost the Mets a World Series

VERDICT

If you break it down, the 2015 Mets were better at first, second, outfield, bench, and rotation.  The 2018 version is better at catcher, third, short, bullpen, and manager.  Looking at the breakdown, you can say it’s a 5-5 draw.  However, in reality, it’s not.  That 2015 team pitching rotation was just so dominant, and hypothetically, if these teams were going to step on the same field, the 2015 rotation would dominate the 2018 version.

That said, there is a lot of talent on this 2018 team, and from what we have seen so far, this is a roster tailor made to what we presume is Callaway’s talents as a manager.  If Callaway is indeed as good as we hope it will be, we can see him and Dave Eiland taking this pitching staff as a whole to the next level.  If that can happen, and with a little help, this Mets team could accomplish what the 2015 version didnt – win the World Series.

Callaway’s Opening Act a Walk in the Park

While being a Mets fan may come with some trials and tribulations, the one day Mets fans are typically happy is Opening Day.  Heading into today’s game, the Mets were 36-20 all time on Opening Day, which is the best Opening Day winning percentage in Major League history.  As a result, the Mets are usually 1-0, and their manager looks like a genius.

Today, new Mets Manager Mickey Callaway looked like a genius.

When you looked at the Opening Day lineup, you knew immediately this was no longer Terry Collins‘ Mets.  The lineup not only had the Mets best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, batting second, it also had Noah Syndergaard batting eighth and Amed Rosario batting ninth.  If you were skeptical of the decision, the Mets quickly put you at ease.

Kevin Plawecki reached on a one out walk, and he remained there after Syndergaard struck out.  With two outs and the lead-off hitter behind him, Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez challenged Rosario with fastballs.  Rosario shot a single up the middle putting runners one first and second with two outs.

Brandon Nimmo did what Brandon Nimmo does, and he drew a walk.  Cespedes came up with the bases loaded, and he delivered with a two out RBI single, which at the time gave the Mets a 3-2 lead.  And with that, Callaway looked like a genius.

Frankly, it’s easy to look like a genius when everyone plays as well as the Mets did today.

Nimmo set the tone getting hit by the first pitch of the game and eventually scoring on a Jose Martinez throwing error on what could have been an Asdrubal Cabrera double play grounder.  Instead of an inning ending double play, the Mets scored a first inning run without getting a base hit.  That’s what happens when you draw nine walks in the game.

Speaking of Nimmo, he was brilliant today.   He went 2-3 with two runs, a walk, and the aforementioned hit by pitch.  With Michael Conforto reportedly being much closer to being ready to start his season, Nimmo is going to need more games like this to stay in the starting lineup.

So will Adrian Gonzalez.  The veteran was coming off a horrific injury plagued 2017 season where the Dodgers not only didn’t miss him as they won the pennant, it seemed they didn’t even want him around.  Nor did the Braves for that matter, as after a trade, they are paying him almost $22 million to play for an NL East rival.

Between that, his terrible Spring Training, and his soft line out to short in his first at-bat, helooked done.  He wouldn’t make another out on the game going 2-3 with a run, double, two walks, and an RBI.

In situations like this, you want your players to make the decision about who should sit and who should play to be extraordinarily difficult.  Based on Nimmo’s and Gonzalez’s play, Callaway’s decision will just be that.

Overall, the Mets offense and unconventional lineup was humming.  The team scored nine runs on 12 hits highlighted by a five run fifth where they not only chased Martinez, but also former Mets prospect Matthew Bowman.

Every Mets starter, save Syndergaard, reached base at least once safely.  Cespedes and Rosario were the only ones who did not draw a walk.  However, when Rosario is attacking first pitch fastballs to the tune of a 2-4 day with two runs and two RBI, you don’t mind his over-aggressiveness at the plate.

About the only negative on the day was seeing Yadier Molina homer.  That just brought back too many raw emotions from 2006.  Some of that sting was taken away with Molina suffering the indignity of Jay Bruce stealing a base off of him.

With Syndergaard, you had some real reason for excitement.  He became just the second Mets pitcher to strike out 10 on Opening Day.  He needed just 85 pitches to get through six innings.  Yes, he would give up the two homers, but overall, he seemed poised and ready to have a dominating 2018 season.

Speaking of dominating, the Mets bullpen came out and completely shut the door on the Cardinals.  Robert Gsellman, Anthony Swarzak, and Jeurys Familia combined to pitch three scoreless and hitless innings.  Gsellman was the most impressive striking out the side in the seventh.  This bullpen performance will make you forget about the Cardinals getting Greg Holland over the Mets for one day.

And for this one day, Gonzalez is rejuvenated, the bullpen is lights out, Callaway is a genuis, and the Mets are the best team in baseball.  Sure, it seems that way almost every Opening Day as a Mets fan, but at least for tonight, let’s just believe this will carry on well into October.

Game Notes: A number 10 was placed on the back of the mound to honor the recently deceased Rusty Staub.  Syndergaard joined Pedro Martinez as the only Mets starter to have a double digit strikeout game on Opening Day.  This was the first time a Mets starter made back-to-back Opening Day starts since Johan Santana did it from 2008 – 2010.

2018 Mets Player by Player Projections

As I do from time to time, we need a “completely serious” analysis and projection of each and every Mets player who is expected to contribute during the 2018 season.  While there are many prjoection systems which claim to be fool-proof, there are none that will be this accurate about the Mets:

Sandy Alderson – The other 29 GMs in baseball will be left in complete hysterics when Alderson is calling around for a right-handed reliever to help boost the team’s chances to making the postseason.

Mickey Callaway – The writers will overwhelmingly vote him as the National League Manager of the Year.  The most cited reason for giving him the award will be the fact he didn’t insist on playing his worst players or forcing his players to play through crippling injuries.

Dave Eiland– Multiple Mets pitchers will hug him for actually fixing their mechanics and for listening to them when they say they’re hurting.

Tyler Bashlor – When someone notices how similar his name is to the ABC reality show hit The Bachelor, they’ll say how “The Bashlor” is handing out strikeouts like they’re roses. We should all hate that person.

Jerry Blevins– Until he eats a sandwich, the socks given away in his honor will hang around his ankles

Bryce Brentz– He’s going to be the guy who has one or two at-bats this season, and someone is going to invoke his name as a former Met to try to sound like he knows more about the Mets than you know anything.

Jay Bruce– After a four home run game, all Mets fans will want to talk about is when he is going to move to first base.

Asdrubal Cabrera – After a slump, Callaway will move Cabrera down in the lineup causing Cabrera to bring his kids to the clubhouse and have them ask why Callaway doesn’t want them to eat.

Jamie Callahan– His wearing #43 will serve as a constant reminder that not only was he part of the return for Addison Reed, but also how the Mets turned quality MLB players into six right-handed relief prospects. That will be the worst possible sequel to I Know What You Did Last Summer.

Yoenis Cespedes – After an MVP caliber first half, he will feel like he has earned just one game of golf as a reward during the All Star Break.  He will immediately be vilified.

Michael Conforto – After a huge cut and a swing and miss, Conforto will wince for a moment thereby causing a passionate Mets fans behind home plate to have a heart attack.  This will led to a call for the netting to be filled in and for fans to have to watch the game on a tape delay.

Travis d’Arnaud– During a remarkably healthy season, he will finally be forced to catch Syndergaard, who had spent most of the seaosn with Plawecki as his personal catcher.  On the first pitch of the game, Syndergaard throws a 101 MPH fastball which immediately shatters d’Arnaud’s hand.

Jacob deGrom– After a slump, he’s going to look to grow his hair out.  Once he realizes his hair cannot possibly reach it’s old length during the 2018, he’s going to grow a really long beard and change his entrance music to “Legs” by ZZ Top.

Phillip Evans– When he cashes in his check for his postseason share, Evans will fondly remember that April pinch hitting appearance.

Jeurys Familia – After he gives up a seventh inning homer to Conor Gillaspie costing the Mets a game, fans will scream for him to pitch in the ninth inning again.

Wilmer Flores – He will be in such hysterics during his struggles in his first game in the outfield his crying on the field in 2015 will look like a case of the sniffles.

Todd Frazier– It will take many Mets fans a long time to come to grips that Jersey Boy Todd Frazier does not use a Bruce Springsteen song as his walk-up music.  That point will finally come when they realize Frank Sinatra is from Hoboken and not NYC.

Adrian Gonzalez – He will become James Loney2.0.  He will hit well enough for the Mets to stick with him, and the front office will continue to stick with him long after he has since been useful.

Robert Gsellman – As he continues to wait in Las Vegas for his opportunity to get back to the Majors, he will eventually care what Sandy Alderson thinks of him.

Matt HarveyHe’s going to pull a reverse Ben Affleck by going from The Dark Knight moniker to Daredevil.  He will earn that name by following Eiland’s instructions to throw inside with such reckless abandon to the point where people start to question if he’s gone blind.

Juan Lagares – After once again injuring his thumb on a diving attempt, the Mets will finally realize Lagares’ injures were the result of him literally using a gold glove to try to play center.  While they found the answer and solution for the thumb injuries, they will still be perplexed on how to fix his hitting.

Seth Lugo– We won’t know if people keep referring to the hook with him because of his incredible curveball or because of how Callaway won’t let him face a lineup for a third time.

Steven Matz– In addition to the sandwich he has named after him at the Se-port Deli, he will have one named after him at the cafeteria at the Hospital for Special Surgery.

Brandon Nimmo– Despite putting up great numbers, the Mets will inform Nimmo they unfortunately have to send him down to Triple-A due to a temporary roster squeeze.  When he’s still smiling through the ordeal, they will force him to seek psychological counseling.

Kevin Plawecki– On a day when the Mets are getting blown out, the frustrated Plawecki will use the last of his six mound visits to derisively tell his pitcher he can pitch better than this. The pitcher will remind him he has a better batting average than Plawecki.

AJ Ramos – After striking out Giancarlo Stanton in a Subway Series game, he’s going to go home and find his friend has moved out of their shared apartment.  Odd Couple style hilarity ensues.

Jose Reyes– One day, he will hit a triple and score on a mad dash to home plate.  He will have that old Reyes smile, and it will electrify the crowd.  It will also cause everyone to forget that he is one of the worst position players in all of baseball.

T.J. Rivera – After he comes off the disabled list, he’ll deliver in the clutch for the Mets and his teammates will honor him as the player of the game.  The Mets will make sure he’s not standing in front of Plawecki’s locker when they take a photo to tweet out.

Hansel Robles– Many will credit him with the discovery of extra terrestrials by his discovery of a UFO in the Vegas night.  Years later, Robles will sheepishly admit all he was doing was pointing up at another homer he allowed.

Amed Rosario– To the surprise of us all, Rosario will strike out looking when the pitcher throws him a pitch which he was surprised at and was not ready to swing at. Entire belief systems will be shattered.

Jacob Rhame– Like Jason Phillips, he will soon realize fans may first like you for the googles and smile in your photo, but really, they’re only going to love you if you produce.

Paul Sewald– After having spent a year with Terry Collins, he’s going to be the player most comfortable with having no defined role in the bullpen.  However, it will be an adjustment for him not having to warm up multiple times per game.

Dominic Smith – When he gets called up to the Majors as part of September call-ups, he will be late on a pitch causing his manager to believe he learned nothing from Spring Training.

Anthony Swarzak – The jokes about not knowing how to spell his name will get old by mid-April.  The jokes will be rediscovered in August when more fans tune it to a Mets team that is a surprising contender.  The jokes will continue to not be funny.

Noah Syndergaard– He will continue his “Twitter Feud” with Mr. Met.  It will be discussed ad nausesum during nationally televised games.  America will think it’s amusing only fueling the spat even further and giving no hope to Mets fans who have long since found this to be unfunny.

Jason Vargas – When Reyes introduces himself, Vargas will remind him they were teammates in 2007.  Both recall that season and will agree it never happened.

Zack Wheeler– He will be converted to a reliever, and in a surprise to us all, he will lead the league in saves. In a surprise to him that league will be the Pacific Coast League.

David Wright– He will apologize and sheepishly admit the Mets crown was an embarrassingly bad idea.  He will try to come up with a way to rectify it, but no one will listen to his ideas on the topic anymore.

Pressure Is On Brandon Nimmo

Heading into last season, it at least seemed the Mets were not as high on the former first round pick as they once were.  There were whispers he was really best suited to being a fourth outfielder.  Brandon Nimmo would respond by becoming an on base machine when he was called up to the Mets.

From July 30th until the end of the season, he hit .248/.368/.420 with a simply outstanding 15.2% walk rate.

However, that wasn’t enough for the Mets to think of him as anything more than a fourth outfielder.  Rather than giving him an inside path to at least fight for a spot in the everyday outfield, the Mets signed Jay Bruce and Adrian Gonzalez.  By and through those signings, the Mets indicated they wanted Michael Conforto in center, and they wanted Nimmo on the bench.

More than that, the Mets gave early indications they wanted to see Juan Lagares win the center field job out of Spring Training.  Yes, that job was only going to be Lagares’ for about a month or so, but it seemed to be his.  Certainly, his elite defense and supposed revamped swing were factors, but the Mets lack of belief in Nimmo also seemed to play a part.

Nimmo responded once again by having an outstanding Spring Training.  He would hit .306/.371/.613 with six doubles, two triples, three homers, and 11 RBI.  He continued to show an excellent eye posting an absurdly high 22.5% walk rate.

With that Spring Training, Nimmo is going to enter the 2018 season batting leadoff and playing center field.

But for how long?  From what we saw, Conforto is well ahead of schedule, and we can expect to see him in Flushing before his May 1st projected return date.  While Gonzalez has looked done for most of Spring Training, he did finish Spring Training strong.  It’s also important to note historically April is Gonzalez’s best month of the season.  Put another way, Gonzalez may play just well enough where you can’t justify sitting him.

That is unless Nimmo is that good.  At this time, we don’t know if Nimmo will have one, two, or three or more weeks to prove himself.  As we have seen in his young career, if you give him an opportunity, he is going to prove himself. Based upon his history, we can see he is going to do all he can to force the Mets hand.

To that end, the question is whether he is going to have enough time to prove to the Mets he is the long term answer in both center and the lead-off spot.

 

Meet The Mets Fan: Derek Carty

The Mets Fan

My name is Derek Carty. I’m the former fantasy manager for sabermetric sites Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times (now part of FanGraphs), but I’m best known these days for my work in Daily Fantasy. I write for ESPN, was on Baseball Tonight during the 2015 season, and put out content through RotoGrinders, including my DFS projection system THE BAT, which has been shown to outperform even Vegas lines.

How You Became a Mets Fan

I’ve been a Mets fan since I was a kid. The crazy-good infield of John Olerud, Edgardo Alfonzo, Rey Ordonez, and Robin Ventura was what I grew up with. I’ve become more jaded over the years…

Favorite Mets Player

Mike Piazza, and it’s not close. Everyone agrees he’s the best hitting catcher of all time, but he was an incredibly underrated defender that got shafted because of the era he played in. He had a bad arm, and that’s all anyone ever focused on back then. But a catcher’s arm is much less important than his framing, and Baseball Prospectus’s retro framing stats show that he was +60 runs above average for his career. He gave some back with the arm, but for his career he was actually a well above-average defender, despite a reputation as a bad one. This is the greatest catcher of all time. Not the greatest hitting catcher. The greatest catcher. Not getting into the Hall on the first ballot was an absolute joke.

Favorite Moment in Met History

2000 NLCS Game 5. I remember listening to “Who Let the Mets Out” on repeat lol.

Message to Mets Fans

“Try not to cry”? That’s been my motto. The way they handled the trade deadline (specifically Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce) was terrible, the Bruce deal this off-season was bad, the way they’ve handled their pitchers has been bad. Seriously, what were they thinking with Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz last year? I really want to be optimistic, but it’s tough. There is *some* reason for it. I like the Todd Frazier deal. I like that they are trying to fix the training staff. I think the A-Gon deal is an okay low-risk move. But as long as the Wilpons are in charge, I have a hard time seeing this organization ever really turning a corner. I have them projected for 84 wins this year, which is solid and could put them in contention for the Second Wild Card, but that’s assuming relatively good health. A team in a market like NYC needs to be better, even if they have to tear it all down first.

Mets Fans Should Monitor Jason Kipnis’ Production

During the offseason, there were reports the New York Mets had a deal in place for Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis, but the deal never did happen.  As noted by Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports, the purported trade wasn’t killed over prospects, but rather, “it was killed by someone at the top, very likely over money.”

The money the Mets would have given to Kipnis eventually went to Jay Bruce despite the team already having Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto tabbed as the corner outfielders over the next three seasons.

This is important to note because after all the moving parts to this offseason, the Mets have a trio of players in Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores, and Jose Reyes, who both struggle defensively and against right-handed pitching.  Moreover, the triumvirate are also injury prone.

That’s where things were interesting with Kipnis.  Like most anyone who was on the Mets roster last year, Kipnis’ 2017 season was a nightmare.  He had shoulder and hamstring issues.  While we can reasonably believe the hamstring issues will be resolved heading into this season, there could be room for doubt over Kipnis’ shoulder.

At this point, it is important to remember this wasn’t the Carlos Gomez trade.  The Mets killed that deal over physicals.  The Kipnis deal was killed because the Mets couldn’t justify paying him $30.7 million over the next two years.  That’s really interesting.

In 2015 and 2016, Kipnis was a .289/.357/.460 hitter who averaged 42 doubles, 16 homers, and 67 RBI.  It was part of the reason why he averaged a 4.3 WAR over that two year span.

The last time a Mets position player had a WAR that high was Curtis Granderson in 2015 when he had a 5.1 WAR.  The last time the Mets had a position player have consecutive seasons with a 4.0 WAR or greater was David Wright in 2012-2013.

The inability to maintain that high level of production when healthy was not an impediment to the Mets giving large free agent deals to Cespedes or Bruce.  However, for some reason, it was an impediment for the Mets acquiring a player who would have resolved their second base situation for the next two seasons.

With Kipnis, it’s more than just those two years too.  Since 2012, he has posted a 3.9 WAR or higher in four of the last six seasons.  For the sake of comparison, Bruce has had a WAR that high just twice in his 10 year career, and Cabrera has done it just twice in his 11 year career.  For both players, those high WAR seasons came a long time ago.

For Kipnis, he did it recently, and he appears to be that player again.  Yes, Spring Training stats are flawed and shouldn’t be used as a barometer for future success, but Kipnis is 8-14 with five homers.  If nothing else, it tells us he’s healthy and primed to be the 4.0+ win player he has been.

We can’t say the same about Bruce or Cabrera even when they are healthy.  However, for some reason the Mets found the money to pay them and not Kipnis.  In the end if you want a real barometer for how good an offseason the Mets have had, watch how Kipnis produces this season.

If Kipnis is Kipnis while Bruce and Cabreara are Bruce and Cabrera, the team should have some explaining to do.