Jacob deGrom

Seth Lugo Got His Chance

Sometimes all you need is a chance. 

We saw it in Jacob deGrom in 2014. The 26 year old got a chance due to injuries, and the most of it. He not only showed the Mets he was a better pitcher than then well regarded prospect Rafael Montero, he also showed he was an important part of the Mets rotation going forward. From there, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year award, was named an All Star, and pitched the opener of the 2015 postseason. This all happened because he got a chance. 

Seth Lugo is getting his chance, and like deGrom, he is making the most of it. 
Initially, Lugo was called up to pitch out of the bullpen.  He immediately made an impression with his awesome curveball:

In a Mets organization that places such emphasis on the slider and falls in love with fastballs that go over 95+ MPH, you could somewhat understand why Lugo wasn’t more highly regarded. You can really understand it when you consider he had a 6.50 ERA in AAA. Still, Lugo had a good repertoire including that curveball. 

According to Statcast, Lugo’s curveball has a higher spin rate than anyone else’s in baseball. Yes, even Clayton Kershaw. The increased spin creates two effects: (1) it created downward movement inducing ground balls; and (2) it induces a number if swings and misses. Lugo’s curveball is a tremendous pitch, and it could very well have been the best pitch in a of the Mets minor league system. 

Lugo likes to evenly mix all of his pitches. Even so, the curve is the money pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo generates the highest percentage of his strikeouts on the pitch. Furthermore, the pitch generates the lowest batting average against than any of his other pitches. Perhaps the reason why it’s so effective, other than its spin rate, is the fact that he’s very selective with the pitch. Other than his change, the curveball is the pitch Lugo throws the least often. 

This means he mostly relies on his 93 MPH sinker and his 94 MPH fastball. What is impressive about his fastball is his ability to dial it up over 96 MPH in pressure spots. Lugo also has an 88 MPH slider which has been an effective pitch for him. If Warthen is able to help Lugo improve his slider like he has with everyone else on the staff, Lugo’s ceiling will go into the next stratosphere. 

Again, the interesting thing breaking down Lugo’s pitches is you’re breaking down the pitches of a pitcher who had the stuff to be in a big league rotation. Prior to this season, there may not have been many who believed that. As Lugo was struggling in AAA, there were probably even fewer. And yet, here he is. He’s not just a major league pitcher, but he’s also an important piece of a rotation that may well be on its way to the postseason. 

And all Lugo needed to show us all this was possible was a chance. He got it, and like deGrom, he has made the most of it. 

Yelich Finally Beat The Mets

On a team that traditionally kills the Mets, Christian Yelich is the ultimate Mets killer. 

It started in the second inning when he robbed Jacob deGrom:

At the time, the Mets had Jose Urena on the ropes with two outs and the bases loaded. Between last night and tonight, the Mets have loaded the bases four times, and Kelly Johnson is the only one who has gotten a base hit. 

In the following half inning, Yelich struck again hitting an RBI single off deGrom scoring Ichiro Suzuki giving the Marlins a 1-0 lead. 

In this series, the Mets responded each time the Marlins took a lead, but not tonight. It would be the Marlins who struck next, and once again Yelich would be in the mix. 

In the top of the fifth, Yelich got the rally started with a two out single. He would come around to score on a Jeff Francouer double. Francouer would score off a Xavier Scruggs double. 

That would be it for deGrom. His final line was five innings, six hits, three runs, three earned, four walks, and six strikeouts. Considering he has struggled recently and the Mets skipping a start, it was hard to tell if he was rusty or if he’s just lost right now.  Whatever it is, the Mets need him, and he hasn’t been able to help. 

In the sixth, the Mets would narrow the gap with a Jay Bruce solo home to to make it 3-1. 

Yelich would once again be a factor. So would Terry Collins. 

Despite a well rested bullpen and newly acquired Fernando Salas available, Collins would push Josh Smoker to pitch a second inning. Smoker didn’t record an out in the seventh, and he gave up an opposite field home run to Yelich giving the Marlins a 6-1 lead. It was Yelich’s third opposite field home runs in as many days. 

Credit should be given to Keith Hernandez here. During the Yelich at bat, he noted how well Yelich goes the other way, and he noted Smoker should pitch Yelich inside. Smoker didn’t. 

Salas would then make his Mets debut pitching a scoreless inning. 

The Mets would build a rally in the eighth. Curtis Granderson and Johnson would lead off the inning with opposite field singles off Nick Wittgren. Bruce followed suit hitting an opposite field RBI single. 

Don Mattingly would bring in Kyle BarracloughWilmer Flores battled back from an 0-2 count to draw a walk loading the bases bringing up Michael Conforto. Barraclough threw him nothing but breaking pitches, and Conforto hit into the 1-2-3 double play. Despite going 2-4 with a double reaching on an error and making a nice play in the field, knowing Collins, Conforto won’t play in another game this year. 

Yoenis Cespedes, who didn’t start the game due to the slick field conditions, would pinch hit for James Loney. He struck out to end the inning and the rally. Again, the Mets couldn’t score a run with the bases loaded. 

To the Mets credit, they didn’t go down without a fight. Travis d’Arnaud led off the inning an infield single thanks in part to a lacksadasical Dee Gordon. Asdrubal Cabrera, who also sat due to field conditions, hit his first career pinch hit home run making it 6-4.  The Mets would get no closer. 

Fittingly, the last three batters would all fly out to left with Yelich getting all three put outs. On the night, Yelich was 3-4 with two runs, four RBI, one walk, a homer, and a sparkling defensive play in center. He was the lone Marlin who came to beat the Mets this series, and he finally accomplished his goal tonight. 

With the loss, the Mets missed an opportunity to gain some ground on the idle Cardinals, and yes, for the delusional fan, the idle Nationals. 

Game Notes: For some reason or other, Rene Rivera played first tonight even with Ty Kelly getting recalled with the expanded rosters. 

Mets August 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered August 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They also trailed the Marlins by 1.5 games for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

By going 15-14, August turned out to be just the second winning month the Mets have had this season.  They now trail the Nationals by nine games in the NL East.  After what has been a crazy month, the Mets still remain 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot.  Only now, the Mets trail the the Cardinals after having helped put the Marlins away having won the first three against them in a four game series.  Given the Mets weak September schedule, it should be an interesting finish to the season.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (C).  After the Jonathon Lucroy rumors died down, d’Arnaud starting hitting again.  However, he has cooled off to hit at a rate slightly better than his 2016 totals.  Part of the reason may be Collins playing Rivera over him with the Mets needing to throw a lot of young pitchers out there.

Kevin Plawecki (Inc.)  Plawecki spent the entire month down in AAA where he has started hitting again.  He should be among the first group of players called up today.  It’ll be interesting to see what, if any, impact he has over the final month of the season.

Rene Rivera (C).  Rivera came crashing back to Earth offensively.  However, his value has always been as a receiver, and he has done that job fairly well helping usher some of these young pitchers into the big leagues.

Lucas Duda (Inc). Duda is most likely gone for the season, and the debate will soon begin about whether he will be a Met in 2017.

James Loney (F).  He didn’t hit for average or power, nor did he get on base much during the entire month.  Worse yet, he has not been good in the field.  The next ball he stretches for will be his first.

Neil Walker (A+).  What has happened to Walker is nothing short of heart breaking.  He had completely turned his season around, and he appeared to be headed for a massive payday this offseason with him standing out as one of the better options in a weak free agent class.  Instead, Walker is going to have season ending back surgery to end his season.

David Wright (Inc.).  It’s clear he’s done for the season, but it is nice seeing him around Citi Field and looking better.

Asdrubal Cabrera (A+).  Since his return from the disabled list, Cabrera has been a blonde bombshell.  He moved into the second spot in the order, and he he has combine with Reyes to form a dynamic and powerful 1-2 duo at the top of the lineup.  The only concern is how much he is going to actually be able to play with that lingering knee issue.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers, and now he’s hitting righties better. The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (D).  Reynolds didn’t hit well during his 10 games with the Mets this month.  Worse yet for him, he has been passed over on the team’s depth chart by Rivera.

Ty Kelly (A).  During his limited August playing time, Collins was able to maximize Kelly’s abilities by making him a short-lived platoon left fielder with Cespedes dealing with his quad injury.  In his nine August games, Kelly hit .381/.500/.524 with a double and a triple.

Michael Conforto (D).  After a stretch in which the Mets bottomed out, Conforto was sent down as he was a young player unable to handle sporadic playing time.  Since being sent down to AAA, Conforto has hit everything including lefties.  He should be called up today, and most likely, never play as Collins is his manager.

Yoenis Cespedes (A).  It was admirable that Cespedes played until he could play no longer (even if his golfing might’ve been part of the reason why).  Since his return, Cespedes is hitting home runs again.  He has had another incredible month, and he had a walkoff with a legendary bat flip to help the Mets beat the Marlins.

Curtis Granderson (D).  It hasn’t been fun seeing last year’s team MVP struggle the way he has this month.  He lost his job in right, moved to center, and now has become a part time player.  The hope is that with the time off, he rests up, and he returns to the Granderson of old.  Those hopes don’t seem that far fetched after he came off the bench the other night to hit two home runs.

Juan Lagares (Inc).  Lagares didn’t play in August due to the thumb surgery.  It remains questionable if he can return in September as he will most likely not be ready for rehab games until after the minor league affiliates have ended their seasons.

Alejandro De Aza (C-).  De Aza followed a great July with another poor August.  Mixed in there were a couple of terrific games that helped the Mets win a pivotal game against the Cardinals.  Right now, what he brings more than anything is the ability to play center field.

Kelly Johnson (A+).  Johnson continues to be the Mets top pinch hitter as well as a platoon option in the infield.  Over the past month, he has hit for more power including a surprising five homers.  His bases loaded double last night might’ve buried the Marlins.

Brandon Nimmo (Inc).  He only played two games before being sent down to AAA.  Given the fact that he’s one of the few healthy center fielders in the organization, he may see some real time when he gets called up with the expanded rosters.

Jose Reyes (A).  You could say we’re seeing the Reyes of old, but Reyes has never been this good in his career.  He has adapted extremely well to third base while playing a steady shortstop when the Mets have needed him to play over there when Cabrera has been injured or needing a day off.  The one caution is he still isn’t hitting right-handed pitching that well.  Still, his numbers were terrific.

T.J. Rivera (B).  After all this time, Rivera finally got his chance.  He made the most of it hitting .289 in 13 games while playing decently at second and third base.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc).  When he plays, he hits, but he is now on his second disabled list stint already with the Mets. With him being put on the 60 day disabled list, he’s now done for the season.   Seeing what we have seen with the team, there may be something in the water.

Jay Bruce (F).  Since coming to the Mets for Dilson Herrera, he has just been bad.  But hey, it’s not like the Mets need another second baseman, right?

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey is done for the season after having had successful surgery to remove a rib.  For a player who has been criticized in the past for attending Yankee games while being gone for the season, Harvey has been a fixture in the Mets dugout during games.

Jacob deGrom (D).  deGrom had been pitching great until August rolled around.  In back-to-back big games against the Giants and the Cardinals, he couldn’t deliver pitching two of the worst games in his career.  Hopefully, the Mets skipping his last start will help get him back on track.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has had an uneven month, but after his last start, it appears he is dealing better with the bone spurs, and he is getting back to the pitcher who was dominant over the first half of the season.

Steven Matz (C).  Just as you thought he turned things around with his flirting with a no-hitter in his last start, he goes down with a shoulder injury.  At this time, it is unknown as to when or if he can return.

Bartolo Colon (A).  Colon stopped his good start-bad start streak in August, and he started pitching much better during the month of August at a time when the Mets needed him the most.

Logan Verrett (F).  Look, he shouldn’t have been tapped as the Mets fifth starter after Harvey went down, but with that said, he did everything he could to lose the job pitching to a 13.50 ERA in August.  He eventually lost the job to Niese of all people

Jeurys Familia (A).  That’s the Familia we all know and love.  He not only had a sub 1.00 ERA, but he also broke the single season Mets save record he shared with Armando Benitez.

Addison Reed (B+).  You knew he wasn’t going to keep up what he has been doing, but even with him coming back to Earth slightly, he has still be incredible.

Jim Henderson (F).  After being on the disabled list for so long with yet another shoulder injury, Henderson has made his way back to the majors.  Unfortunately, he’s not the same pitcher.  Collins owes him an apology.

Hansel Robles (F).  Robles showed how much he has been overworked this season by Collins this month.  Hopefully, with some rest, he should finally be able to rebound and contribute in September and beyond like he had done for most of the season.

Jerry Blevins (B+).  His 2.16 ERA was terrific, but his 1.560 WHIP gives some reason for pause.  Both righties and lefties are starting to hit him, and he has been allowing inherited runners to score.

Antonio Bastardo (Inc.)  Thankfully, he is gone, and it was worth it even if it meant the Mets had to take back Niese.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) He got an unexpected start due to injuries, and he fought his way through five scoreless innings.  Good for him.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin has only made three appearances since being recalled, and he hasn’t pitched particularly well.  Whether it was the shoulder injury or teams figuring him out, he’s not the same guy he was last season.

Erik Goeddel (F).  There used to be two factions of the Mets fan base: those who thought Goeddel was a good major league pitcher, and those that didn’t.  Seemingly, everyone is now in the latter camp now.

Seth Lugo (A).  Lugo has been nothing short of a revelation this year.  Due to injuries, he has had to go from the bullpen to the rotation.  He has not only shown his stuff translates as a starter, but he also shown he could actually be more effective as a starter.  He has gotten his 2014 deGrom moment, and he has taken advantage of it.

Jon Niese (F).  Somehow, he was worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates.  He has failed in the bullpen and the rotation.  Hopefully, for him, the reason is because of his knee injury that has required surgery.

Robert Gsellman (Inc.) It’s been a mixed bag for Gsellman.  In his one relief apperance and his one start, he has given the Mets a chance to win.   However, he’s a powder keg out there as it seems as if he is in trouble each and every inning.  To his credit, he has gotten out of most of the jams.  It’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here.

Gabriel Ynoa (Inc.) Ynao was surprisingly called up to pitch out of the bullpen.  In three rough appearances, the only thing you can fairly conclude is he isn’t comfortable yet pitching out of the bullpen.

Josh Edgin (D) Edgin has gone through the long Tommy John rehab process, but he’s not quite back yet.  His velocity isn’t quite there.  With that in mind, he has struggles getting major league batters out.

Josh Smoker (B) After a rough start to his major league career, he has gone out there and gotten better each and every time out.  He is getting his fastball in the upper 90s, and he is a strikeout machine.  He could be a real factor over the next month and in the postseason

Terry Collins (D)  He iced Conforto.  He continues to overwork the bullpen.  He makes baffling lineup decision after baffling lineup decision.  He is even worse with in-game management.  However, with the Mets on a stretch against some bad teams, and the Wild Card frontrunners not having run away with it, he may once again be in position to ride some good luck into the postseason.

Mets Roster Management Is Horrendous

There’s having a short bench due to injuries, and then there is what the Mets did last night.

With the Mets needing to skips Jacob deGrom start, the Mets needed to call up a starter to take his place in the rotation. The corollary to that is the Mets needed to send someone down to make room for Rafael Montero on the roster.

The obvious choice was Robert Gsellman. Gsellman had just started on Sunday meaning he was not slated to pitch until Friday. However, he wasn’t going to start on Friday. That start is going to go to Steven Matz, who by all accounts, will be ready to come off the disabled list. With Matz reclaiming his rotation spot, Gsellman was not needed.

Instead, the Mets sent down T.J. Rivera.  They sent down T.J. Rivera even though Neil Walker has had to miss a few games with a lingering back injury.  Rivera was sent down despite Asdrubal Cabrera having to leave Sunday’s game due to a re-aggravation of his knee injury.  Rivera was sent down even though he was the only thing resembling healthy versatile infield depth on the Mets roster.  Rivera being sent down meant the Mets had no margin of error on the infield.  It was something that was almost a huge issue last night as A.J. Ramos fell on Jose Reyes‘ shoulder as Reyes scored on a wild pitch.

It also meant the Mets had a short bench last night.  With Rafael Montero only being able to go five innings, Terry Collins had to use Jacob deGrom to pinch hit.  In an effort to win the game with one swing, Collins burned Rene Rivera and then turned to Jay Bruce.  When Bruce didn’t deliver, the Mets best pinch hitting option remaining was Noah Syndergaard.  Fortunately, like he has done so many times in the past, Yoenis Cespedes bailed out the Mets with a tenth inning walk off home run.

Like it has most of the season, the Mets handling of the roster has been left a lot to be desired.  It might not have cost them last night’s game, but it has cost them games this season.  With only two more days before rosters expand, hopefully, the days of the Mets purposefully playing with a short roster are behind us.

Montero Started It and Cespedes Finished It

There was little optimism for tonight’s game. The Marlins were starting Jose Fernandez, who absolutely owns the Mets. Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera couldn’t play due to injury. That left the Mets with an extremely short bench as the team sent down T.J. Rivera to make room for Rafael Montero

Yes, that Rafael Montero. In the biggest game of the biggest series of the year, the Mets led off with Montero against Fernandez because Jacob deGrom needed to have a start skipped with his recent struggles. In the biggest undersell of the century, this was far from optimal. 

Also suboptimal was the strikezone. Montero, who has not dealt well with adversity in his career, was squeezed all night. He issued six walks in five innings. In four of the five innings he pitched, he was on the verge of a meltdown. But then something funny happened. Montero bore down. 

He got out of a jam in the first by striking out J.T. Realmuto. In the fourth, he got out of a bases loaded jam by getting the opposing pitcher, Fernandez, to ground out. In the fifth, he induced a ground ball from Marcell Ozuna, and third baseman  Kelly Johnson started the inning ending 5-5-3 double play. 

It was ugly at times, but Montero pitched an effective five innings to give the Mets a chance. His final line was five innings, two hits, no runs, none earned, six walks, and three strikeouts. It may not be an outing that would earn him another start, but it was a courageous outing that shows he may still yet have a major league future. 

Sean Gilmartin and Jerry Blevins each followed Montero’s effort with a scoreless inning if their own meaning the Mets got through seven scoreless innings. It also meant the Mets successfully outlasted Fernandez, who was brilliant again. 
Fermandez’s final line was six innings, three hits, no runs, none earned, four walks (one intentional), and six strikeouts. While not particularly noteworthy against this team, the Mets were 0-6 with RISP against him. 

It became a battle of the bullpens, and the one guy you counted on most was the one who sprung a leak. Ichiro Suzuki hustled his way to a two out double off Addison ReedAlejandro De Aza made a good play on the ball, but Ichiro is just that fast. Ichiro would then score on a Xavier Scruggs RBI double. 

The Scruggs double was an absolute laser that Yoenis Cespedes didn’t have a real chance to get even at 100%. Still, he took a real baffling route to the ball. 

The Mets, specifically Jose Reyes, would respond in the bottom half of the inning. Reyes lead off with a double off reliever A.J. Ramos. Ichiro misplayed the ball, but Reyes was getting to second regardless. Reyes tagged and moved up on a deceptively deep De Aza fly ball. Normally, you’d question running on left fielder Christian Yelich who has a cannon. However, with him back pedaling, Reyes made a great read and took third. 

Cespedes then stepped to the plate with the crowd a buzz. Ramos would throw a wild pitch allowing Reyes to score. Ramos would come down on Reyes’ shoulder, but Reyes would stay in the game. 

Cespedes and Curtis Granderson would follow with singles, but the Mets couldn’t push either home. 

Jeurys Familia pitched a 1-2-3 ninth. He wasn’t available to go deeper as he was due up third in the bottom of the ninth. Terry Collins couldn’t double switch him in as he had no bench to do that. 
After the ninth, the Mets really had no bench. With two outs in the ninth, Rene Rivera was announced as the pinch hitter against the lefty Mike DunnDon Mattingly countered with the right-handed Nick Wittgren.  Then in a move that made no sense Collins went to Jay Bruce as Collins was the only one who expected Bruce to hit one out of the park. He didn’t meaning the lone position player left was Walker, who couldn’t play due to his lingering back issues. 

Josh Smoker picked the Mets up with a lights out 1-2-3 tenth where he struck out two of the three batters he faced. Smoker has gotten progressively better with each and every outing since he was recalled, and he earned his first major league win because, well, Cespedes. 

 With two outs in the tenth, Cespedes hit the walk off at a time the Mets desperaty needed it. They were almost out of pitchers. They had no more bench players, and he bailed them out evening the Mets with the Marlins in the standings. 

Game Notes: With the short bench, deGrom grounded out while pinch hitting for Montero in the fifth. 

Pennant Race: The Nationals beat the  Phillies 4-0. The Cardinals beat the Brewers 6-5. The Pirates lead the Cubs 6-3 in the seventh. 

Hansel Robles Has Been Overworked

Last year, Hansel Robles found himself situtated in the back end of the Mets bullpen with Terry Collins never fully trusting him during the course of the entire season.  That was never more evidenced than when Collins only used Robles when he absolutely had to during the 2015 postseason.

In 2015, Robles made a total of 57 appearances for the Mets pitching 54.0 innings.  In the minors, he pitched in five more games pitching an additional 7.2 innings.  In total, Robles made 62 total appearances throwing 61.2 innings during the regular season.  This year, Robles has already made 56 appearances throwing a total of 63.o innings.  With a month left to go in the season, Robles has already thrown more innings than he did last year.  That’s not the only sign that Robles has been overworked this year.

Last year, Robles pitched in back-to-back games 15 times, one day of rest 18 times, and two days of rest nine times.  This year, Robles has already pitched in back-to-back games 10 times, one day of rest 17 times, and two days of rest 20 times.  In essence, Robles has been getting far less of an extended break between appearances to rest up than he did last season.  Unfortunately, there’s still more to Robles being overworked.

Throughout the entire 2015 season, Robles threw 892 pitches.  He had thrown 30 or more pitches in three separate appearances.  This year, Robles has thrown 1,149 pitches.  Moreover, he has thrown 30 or more pitches in 11 appearances.  This includes appearances in which Robles has thrown 52, 41, and 65 pitches.  In a stretch of six days ranging from June 19th to June 24th, Robles made three appearances throwing 127 pitches.  After any game Robles threw 30+ pitches, he averaged two days of rest.  That number is skewed as he once received five days of rest.  Typically, Robles has received 0-2 days of rest between 30 pitch performances.  Last year, he never threw more than 38 pitches in an appearance.  When he made that appearance last year, he was given three days of rest.

Additionally, in 2015, Robles pitched more than an inning only eight times.  In five of those appearances over one inning, he went two innings four times, and three innings once.  This year, he has already thrown more than an inning 11 times with Robles going at least two innings in 10 of those appearances.  Furthermore, Robles has gone over two innings four times, and he has pitched three innings or more on three separate occasions.

Seeing how Robles has been used, it should come as no surprise that he has seen a dip in velocity.  According to Brooks Baseball, Robles threw a 96.33 MPH four seamer, 89.74 MPH change, and an 88.25 MPH slider.  This year, his velocity is down, but most notably his slider’s velocity is down.  Robles has been throwing a 95.91 MPH fastball, an 89.00 MPH changeup, and an 84.94 MPH slider.

Overall, no matter where you look, Robles has been overworked, and recently he has been showing the effects of an increased and trying workload.  Robles has gone from a 2.98 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, and an 11.1 K/9 in the first half of the season to a 6.53 ERA, 1.548 WHIP, and a 7.8 K/9 so far in the second half.

Overall, the question shouldn’t be why Robles has suddenly gotten much worse.  The real question is whether the Mets can balance finding time for both he and Jacob deGrom to rest in order to allow them to get back to being the pitcher they truly are while also being able to stay in the pennant race.  Ultimately, the Mets are going to have to find a way because an overworked Robles is not helping them.

A Huge Game for the Mets, A Bigger One for Rafael Montero

It’s hard to think of a time when there was so much riding on one game not just for a team, but also for the team’s starting pitcher.

For the Mets, the largeness of the situation is obvious.  The Mets are entering a four game set against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field.  The Mets are currently one game behind the Marlins in the race for the second Wild Card, and they are 2.5 games back (three in the loss column) of the St. Louis Cardinals.  By winning three out of four, the Mets will go from one game back of the Marlins to going two games ahead of them in the Wild Card race.  The hope is also that the Mets make up some ground against the Cardinals and Pirates as well.

For Rafael Montero, there is so much more at stake.  For Montero, his future with the entire Mets organization could very well be coming to an end.  The Mets have notable prospects like Amed Rosario, Gavin Cecchini, and Marcos Molina who will need to be added to the 40 man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft.  Given Montero’s failures at the major league level, and the fact that the team has been frustrated with him for well over a season now, Montero’s future with the Mets looks bleak.

It never looked bleaker than when he was demoted to AA earlier this season.  However, something strange happened there.  For the first time in his career, Montero responded to adversity.  In eight starts, Montero has gone 4-2 with a 1.70 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP.  It is clearly the best Montero has ever pitched in his entire career.  Part of the reason why is because Montero’s command is much better in AA, and his changeup has been better.  Given his repetoire, both were always a necessity for him in order to succeed.  Another possibility for Montero’s success was his facing presumably weaker batters in AA.  This has all lead to him having more confidence on the mound, and him returning to the type of pitcher that once was regarded as a better prospect than Jacob deGrom.

The Mets need that Montero tonight against a Marlins team that has a habit of breaking the Mets’ hearts.  It’s a Marlins team that is sending their ace, Jose Fernandez, to the mound tonight.  Not only is Fernandez an ace, but he has dominated the Mets in his young career.  In seven starts against the Mets, he is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, and an 11.9 K/9.  He has limited the Mets’ batters to a .181/.247/.236 batting line.  The Mets are going to need Montero to be lights out in order to keep them in the game.

If he is, Montero will not only help the Mets postseason chances, he will also help himself.  He can change what the Mets perception of him will be.  He can once again find himself a part of the Mets future instead of being a guy who may very well be on his way out the door.

 

De Aza Saves the Mets Season – Yes, that De Aza

As if the Cardinals weren’t evil enough, they sent Adam Wainwright of all people to the mound to end the Mets season. Fortunately for the Mets, they had the better right-handed with a terrific curveball on the mound. 

That’s right. In the most important game of the season, the 2011 34th round draft pick Seth Lugo took to the mound, and once again he was terrific. His final line was 5.0 innings, two hits, no runs, none earned, three walks, and five strikeouts. He only lasted five innings as he left the game with a cramp in what was a hot and humid day. 

Lugo was never supposed to be in this spot, but there he is. Better yet, much like Jacob deGrom in 2014, he’s taken advantage of an unexpected opportunity. 

The Mets offense took advantage of a struggling Wainwright and a bad Cardinals defense. 

In the fourth, with the Mets already up 1-0, Curtis Granderson would reach on a Jhonny Peralta error. He’d go to third on a Wilmer Flores double. Both would then score on an Alejandro De Aza RBI single expanding the Mets lead to 3-0. Flores, De Aza, and the Cardinals defense would conspire again in the fifth to blow the game open. 

The Mets had Yoenis Cespedes and James Loney on with two out, and Wainwright seemingly induced Flores to hit an inning ending ground out. Instead, second baseman Greg Garcia booted it allowing Flores to reach and Cespedes to score. De Aza would then really make the Cardinals pay:

Just like that it was 7-0 Mets. 

Wainwright’s final line was five innings, nine hits, seven runs, two earned, two walks and three strikeouts. 

The story of the night, aside from Lugo, was Flores and De Aza. Flores was the surprise starter with a right-handed on the mound and Neil Walker on paternity leave. De Aza got the start with Jay Bruce dealing with some type of leg injury. 
Flores would go 2-4 with three runs and sac fly RBI. De Aza would go 2-4 with two runs, five RBI, one walk, and a homer. 

De Aza would also rob Matt Carpenter of a homer on the Cardinals first at bat of the game. 

  
The Mets offense just exploded in the night. Everyone but Jose Reyes, Cespedes, and Granderson got at least two hits. However, even they reached base two times a piece. Reyes and Cespedes also drew a walk, and Granderson reached on the error. 

The 10 runs the Mets put up made up for some ugly bullpen work. Jim HendersonJosh Smoker, and Sean Gilmartin combined to allow six earned runs. 

Fortunately, the Mets offense put up 10 runs to win the game 10-6. With that, the Mets took two out of three from the Cardinals bringing them back to 3.5 games behind them for the second Wild Card. It also allowed Lugo to earn his first major league win. 

Game Notes: Loney hit cleanup and went 3-5 with three runs snapping his August cold streak. Asdrubal Cabrera was 2-5 with an RBI double. Rene Rivera was 2-4 with two RBI, a double, and a walk. His two RBI came on a single that went to the wall. 

Pennant Race:  The Pirates are tied with the Brewers 2-2 in the eighth. The Nationals beat the Orioles 4-0. The Marlins lost to the Royals 5-2. 

Jacob deGrom Didn’t Have It AgainĀ 

You can point to whatever you want, but the simple fact is the Mets lost this game because Jacob deGrom didn’t have it for the second straight game.  That much was made apparent when Matt Carpenter led off the bottom of the first with a home run. 

He would only last 4.2 innings allowing a whopping 12 hits with two walks while only striking out three. The scary part is it could have been a lot worse than the five runs he allowed. 

In the second deGrom caught a wandering Yadier Molina off second after a leadoff double. The Cardinals still rallied that inning, but they wouldn’t score. Randal Grichuk tried to score on a Greg Garcia single, but he would be gunned down by Curtis Granderson to end the inning. The play was really made by Travis d’Arnaud, who made a terrific tag. 

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That would keep the game at 1-1. The Mets sole run of the game was scored off an Asdrubal Cabrera double scoring Alejandro De Aza. It scored De Aza because he was pinch running for Jay Bruce, who injured himself on a leadoff double. The Mets are calling it a cramp. Given their ability to diagnose injuries, I’m sure it’ll be much worse:

In the fourth, the Cardinals expanded their lead to 3-1 on a Grichuk solo shot. They continued to rally, and they had first and second with one out. Carpenter then ripped a line drive right at James Loney, who then beat pitcher Carlos Martinez back to the bag for the inning ending double play. 

In the fifth, deGrom allowed another home run. This one was a two run shot to Stephen Piscotty. After that deGrom would allow a hit and a walk all but forcing Collins to pull him after 95 pitches and the Mets down 5-1. Erik Goeddel came on and got the Mets out if the jam without allowing any further damage that inning. 

It’s understandable why Terry Collins would try to push deGrom. He’s the ace, and he’s the guy who can get people out when he seemingly has nothing. On top of that, the Mets bullpen went 8.2 innings yesterday and needed a break. It should be noted the Mets were in that predicament because they started Jon Niese with full knowledge he had a bum knee, which could mean he would need to be pulled early. 

What is strange is Collins pushed Goeddel, who put in a yeoman’s effort. Goeddel has a history of arm injuries, and he’s not a long reliever. Meanwhile, Hansel Robles was well rested and has had experience and success going multiple innings.

Collins wouldn’t go to Robles until the seventh until Goeddel hit a walk after 1.2 solid innings of work. He did allow a run on a Jhonny Peralta RBI triple that Granderson had some trouble with in right. 

For what it’s worth, Robles wasn’t sharp like most of this over worked Collins’ bullpen has. Robles’ final line was 1.2 innings, five hits hits, one run, one earned, no walks, and one strikeout. He did allow an inherited runner to score tagging Goeddel with a second earned run allowed. 

Through all of this the Mets could not solve Martinez who was great all night. His final line was eight innings, four hits, one run, one earned, three walks, and five strikeouts. 

Overall, this story was about deGrom. Over his last two starts, he has allowed 25 hits to the 52 batters he’s faced while allowing four homers. It marked the first time a Mets pitcher has allowed 12 or more hits in consecutive games. This was deGrom’s third straight bad start against a Wild Card contender. 

As it stands, the Mets lost 8-1, and it wasn’t really that close. The Mets are back at .500 . . . again. They are back to 4.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card. 

The loss makes tomorrow’s game all the more important. No matter what happens tomorrow, the Mets need to get deGrom to get back to his dominant self. 

Game Notes: Neil Walker missed his second straight game as he is with his wife and newborn daughter. Yoenis Cespedes looked hobbled again out there in left. He went 0-4 with a strikeout. 

Pennant Race: The Pirates lost to the Astros 5-4. The Nationals lost to the Orioles 10-8. The Marlins beat the Royals 3-0. Jose Fernandez appeared to leave that game with an injury. The Marlins are calling it a cramp. 

Jacob deGrom Needs a Big Start

This will be the third time after the All Star Break that Jacob deGrom is pitching in an important game against a team in the thick of the playoff race.  The first two times did not go well.

On July 23rd, the Mets were coming off a 5-3 victory against the Marlins.  If the Mets were able to win consecutive games for the first time in almost a month, the Mets would’ve jumped a half game over the Marlins and claimed the second Wild Card spot.  However, deGrom faltered in his first start after his career complete game shutout.  He allowed five earned on 10 hits in only 3.2 innings in a game the Mets lost 7-2.  Instead of being a half-game behind the Marlins, the Mets were 1.5 games back, and they have not yet caught up to the Marlins in the standings.

On August 18th, the Mets were at .500 after a terrible nine game stretch against two of the worst teams in baseball.  The Mets sent deGrom to the mound in what was supposed to be a classic pitcher’s duel against Madison Bumgarner.  Neither pitcher lived up to the billing.  For his part, deGrom would only last five innings surrendering a career high 13 hits while allowing eight earned in the Mets 10-7 loss to the Giants.  With the loss, the Mets would fall back under .500, and they would fall 4.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.

The Mets have been playing much better of late having won three in a row.  With last night’s win over the Cardinals, the Mets are a game over .500 and are 3.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.  With a win, the Mets will have won four in a row, pulled a game closer to the Cardinals, and they will have real momentum.

Tonight’s game won’t be easy.  The Mets are going against Carlos Martinez, who has been the Cardinals’ best pitcher all season.  That means deGrom is going to have to be at his best.  He hasn’t been in these situations since the All Star Break.

However, to say he isn’t capable of going out there tonight and pitching a gem tonight is absurd.  It was deGrom who started off the NLDS last year out-dueling Clayton Kershaw to give the Mets a 1-0 lead in the series.  In that game, deGrom struck out 13 Dodgers over seven shutout innings.  In Game Five of that series, deGrom had nothing, but he outlasted Zack Greinke and kept the Mets in the game over six of the gutsiest innings you will ever see a Mets pitcher throw.  In the NLCS, deGrom effectively ended the series with a dominant Game Three performance.

No matter how you slice or dice it, deGrom is a big game pitcher.  Just because he has faltered in his two chances after the All Star Break doesn’t mean he won’t go out there tonight and shut down the Cardinals.  While Noah Syndergaard could have the best stuff in all of baseball, deGrom is the Mets pitcher you trust most out there.  He is the ace of the staff.  He’s going to have a big game tonight.