Jacob deGrom
When you look at the New York Mets, the obvious area to address for offense is catcher. After all, Tomas Nido has a 47 wRC+, and Patrick Mazeika has a 39. That’s just indefensibly bad offensive production.
Now, this is the obvious spot where we say the Mets should call-up Francisco Alvarez. With Alvarez hitting a double and grand slam in consecutive games, we are not at that point yet. After all, he is hitting .125/.318/.281 over 10 games. You can argue that will probably translate better than what they are getting now, but with Alvarez, it is more than just what he can give you now.
Surveying the trade market, it would seem Willson Contreras and his career best 140 wRC+ would be a perfect fit. In actuality, this would be a mistake for the Mets.
Ultimately, this is a team built on its pitching. A large part of that has been the work Nido has done behind the plate.
Nido has been a terrific framer. In fact, as per Baseball Savant, he is tied as for 14th best among framers. He’s a good week from moving up to the top 10. While he doesn’t rate nearly as high, he does have impressive pop times. He is a defensive wizard back there, and he’s helping the Mets pitching staff.
This season, the Mets staff have the sixth best ERA (3.60) and FIP (3.65) and the best K/9 (9.65). They’re also walking few batters with their 2.86 BB/9 ranking seventh. The pitching staff is dominant, and more than anything else, that is why the Mets are in first place.
Look at it another way, this team cannot hit their way out of a paper bag right now. Still, they’re 9-7 over their last 16. The biggest reason is the pitching. Since Max Scherzer has come all the IL, the starting rotation has a 1.70 ERA, which is easily the best in the majors. This right here is the Mets strength, and it’s going to be more of a strength when Jacob deGrom returns from the IL.
This is also before you see Edwin Diaz is finally comfortable and dominating. He’s easily the best closer in baseball right now.
Contreras would only serve to diminish that.
Contreras has one of the worst called strike rates in the majors. Sure, part of that could be the Chicago Cubs pitching staff, and overall, Contreras has good framing numbers. However, as noted by the strike rate, that is deceiving. Maybe things will be better with the Mets, maybe not. Given what’s at stake, it’s too big of a risk to take.
If Contreras doesn’t jive with the Mets pitchers, that’s it. This team’s strength has taken a massive hit. Now, you have another Wilson Ramos situation where you’re just relying on him to hit. That’s a dicey proposition.
For his career, Contreras is a 127 wRC+ at Wrigley and a 108 on the road. That’s carried into this year where he is a 150 wRC+ at home and a 127 on the road. Again, he is far better at home, and an important note here, while it’s only a 15 game sample size, he hits .180/.263/.260 at Citi Field.
Ultimately, even if Ramos is at his career worst at the plate, he’s a significant upgrade over what the Mets already have offensively. However, catcher is a defensive position above all else. It is about the roughly 40 plate appearances you are behind the plate over the four you get yourself. Looking at it that way, what Nido is doing is far more valuable.
The Mets can improve their offense by addressing other areas. Even with Daniel Vogelbach, they can improve at DH. They can improve at third and left. Maybe if Alvarez is ready, they can improve there. What they can’t do right now is gamble on Contreras. That is a move that can hurt them more than it can help them.
Much of the reason the New York Mets are in first place is due to their unsung heroes. With the rash of injuries, players like Trevor Williams stepped up and has been huge.
His biggest start was his last one where he earned a win after shutting out the Miami Marlins over seven innings. The thing is that may be his last start of the season.
Max Scherzer is back and dominating. Jacob deGrom is throwing 100 MPH fastballs in his rehab starts. When deGrom is back, which will be sooner rather than later, there’s zero chance Williams gets a start.
We saw the Mets accepting and planning for that eventuality as Williams pitched the final three innings in the Mets 8-0 win over the Chicago Cubs. Since Williams pitched the final three innings, he was credited with the save, the first of his career.
We should be seeing more of Williams in these late inning situations. Preferably, it would be high leverage situations.
For starters (or relievers), the Mets need someone to fill that role. It’s something the Mets have been trying since Trevor May was injured.
Drew Smith struggles with left-handed batters, is becoming homer prone, and has a 4.68 ERA since May 14.
Seth Lugo had struggled on back-to-back days and pitching more than an inning. Adam Ottavino is on a good run, but he needs his rest, and historically, he’s terrible in September and October 5.17 ERA).
Seemingly, that’s it for relievers Buck Showalter trusts in a big spot to set up Edwin Diaz. Speaking of Diaz, he might just be the only reliever everyone trusts, and he can’t set up for himself.
Likely, the Mets main set-up reliever is not currently on the roster. Keep in mind, the Mets still need to figure out who is going to pitch innings 6-8.
To phrase it as one set-up reliever is a misnomer because the Mets still need at least two more relievers. While we can be curious about a Colin Holderman, Showalter isn’t using him in high leverage situations.
Maybe Showalter will use Williams. Keep in mind, Williams is a veteran. He’s also pitching some of the best baseball of life.
Williams struck out a career high 22.5% of batters. While an admittedly small sample size, in his career, he’s struck out 9.9 batters per nine as a reliever (against 7.1 as a starter).
That could increase as Williams focuses more on his sinker and slider. Right now, Williams has a 40% whiff rate on his slider and a 36.8% put away rate on his sinker. Both are the best marks for his career.
Putting aside the eccentricities, it’s a two pitch repertoire and level of effectiveness reminiscent of Turk Wendell. Of course, we don’t know if Williams can be Wendell, at least not until the Mets try it.
For Williams, it will be an adjustment. It should be noted he’s at his worst this year the first time through the lineup. Then again, he adapted just fine earning his first career save against the Cubs.
Past that, we don’t have a real sample size this year to make any judgments. That is even with him performing well in a very limited sample size last season after the Mets were out of the race.
Ultimately, we don’t know how Williams will fare. What we do know is there are signs he could succeed in the role, and more importantly, the Mets have an immediate need. Everything together, it’s time to give Williams a shot as a high leverage reliever.
In the New York Mets 4-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves, their biggest flaw was highlighted and their downfall. Their bullpen.
We know the missed strike call to Dansby Swanson which should’ve ended the inning. However, David Peterson was pitching too long.
Peterson was at 98 pitches before he allowed that homer to Matt Olson. In the at-bat. Olson hit a very long foul. When Mookie Betts did that to Peterson in Los Angeles, Buck Showalter gave him the hook.
The Mets really weren’t able to do that here. That’s even with Peterson set to go over 100 pitches for just the third time all season. It was the third time through the order. That’s something the Mets have justifiably shielded him from all season.
Here, the Mets had little choice. After all, aside from Edwin Diaz, who do you absolutely trust in the Mets bullpen right now? The answer is probably nobody.
Well, Diaz was unavailable as was Adam Ottavino. The Mets bullpen was short, and they needed Peterson to get through six. He didn’t, and he allowed the Olson two run homer to put the Mets down 2-1.
Seth Lugo came in and was huge getting the Mets out of that inning. And then, he was not S he allowed his own two run homer to Adam Duvall in the seventh.
Just like that a shallow and tired pen helped turn what could’ve been a 1-0 win into a 4-1 loss.
Yes, we can and should point to the offense. However, the Mets had a lead. They just don’t have the arms to bring games like these home.
Drew Smith is increasingly unrealizable and can’t get left-handed batters out. Joely Rodriguez is a LOOGY and not really cut out for the three batter rule.
Tommy Hunter is a great story, but you still don’t know if he can trust him quite yet. Same goes for Colin Holderman, who did pitch well in this game and all season. Maybe they’ll get there, especially Holderman, but the Mets don’t trust him completely right now.
That leaves you questioning who else is there? Well, until Trevor May comes back, the answer is no one. That’s the problem.
Sure, with Max Scherzer pitching, it masks the problem. When he gives you seven, you just need one inning from someone not named Diaz. The same is true for when Jacob deGrom comes back from the IL.
Taijuan Walker is approaching this level, and Chris Bassitt is a strong 6+ inning starter. With this starting pitching, you don’t need much in the bullpen.
The Mets proved this in 2015. One of the ways do address a faltering bullpen is to just not use it. Let the starters absorb the innings.
The plan works, but you need more than just a Jeurys Famila, or in this case, a Diaz. They’re also going to need more than just May returning and Peterson likely shifting to the bullpen come October.
The Mets need an answer. That may come from a Holderman. Mostly, it’s going to have to be a trade deadline move. Really, it’s both that are needed. We’ll see if the Mets get it.
The Atlanta Braves were surging and unbeatable. The New York Mets were falling apart. This is 2021 all over again.
Nah.
The Mets have Max Scherzer and just phenomenal starting pitching across the board. When you have pitching like this, you’re the team to beat in the division, and Scherzer reminded everyone of that.
Through the first six, Robinson Cano was the only one able to get a hit off of him. Of course, it was Cano, who the Braves obtained right before this series.
The Braves didn’t score a run until Austin Riley’s seventh inning homer. The Braves threatened from there with Marcell Ozuna following with a double.
This is cause for worry for mere mortals, but this is Scherzer. The future Hall of Famer, and one of the fiercest competitors in all of pro sports, struck out Eddie Rosario to end the jam.
In the end, the Braves had a run. Even with the recently sputtering Mets offense, that was a low hurdle to jump. They jumped it easily.
Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso doubled in the third to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. From there, the Mets loaded the bases with one out.
Luis Guillorme hit what could’ve been an inning ending double play. Instead, Guillorme buster it out of the box resulting in an RBI fielder’s choice giving the Mets a 2-0 lead.
It’s a good thing Guillorme delivered there because J.D. Davis was batting behind him. Davis had his usual terrible night at the plate marked by strikeouts, infield pop outs, and ground ball outs.
The Mets had Braves starter Max Fried on the ropes all night, but they couldn’t deliver the knockout punch. Ultimately, as a team, the Mets were 2-for-10 with RISP stranding 10.
It didn’t matter. Scherzer was just that good. So was the red hot Guillorme. In the eighth, he homered off Darren O’Day to increase the Mets lead to 3-1.
This marks his career high. Notably, half of Guillorme’s four homers have come against O’Day.
Guillorme was simply great. He was 2-for-3 with a run, double, homer, walk, and two RBI.
The Mets needed it too with Starling Marte hurt, and Jeff McNeil on the paternity list. The Mets already weak offense looked terrible. It wasn’t.
We saw the Mets add insurance runs. That made the job of the Mets bullpen that much easier.
It was a dance for Adam Ottavino, but he escaped the jam keeping the Mets ahead. After that, the Mets added an insurance run in the ninth.
With regards to that run, Nimmo and Francisco Lindor pulled off the rate hit-and-run. It was a good night at the plate for Lindor, who was 3-for-5. After an Alonso fielder’s choice, it was 4-1.
Faced with an interesting and potentially daunting option, Buck Showalter chose Edwin Diaz on a third straight night for the save. Diaz looked fully rested mowing down all three Braves he faces for his 19th save of the season.
Thinking long term, once Jacob deGrom comes back, the Mets pitching is unstoppable. It’s about seven innings from the top of this rotation with Diaz striking out the side in the ninth.
Really, that’s giving teams an inning or maybe two to score runs. The Mets offense can splutter all it wants, more often than not, they’re winning these games.
That’s what the Braves discovered. It’s what all of baseball was reminded of again.
The New York Mets played the Houston Astros four times over the past week, and it just didn’t go well for the Mets. Not only did the Astros sweep all four games, but they also dominated them.
As Mets fans, we can lie to ourselves. We can say it’ll be different when the Mets have Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Truth is, that might not be sufficient.
We saw that with Taijuan Walker’s start. He was again brilliant shutting the Astros out over 7.1 innings. Edwin Diaz finished that inning, but Drew Smith couldn’t keep it scoreless allowing a two run homer to Jason Castro.
Even with the homer from the backup catcher hitting .095, it was just two runs. When your pitchers all two runs, that’s a winnable game. When you’re at home, you need to win those games.
The excuse will be it was Justin Verlander. Fine, he’s a future Hall of Famer, and he leads the AL in wins. He was great. However, that doesn’t explain one run scored over two games and six over four games against the Astros.
Come up with your reasons. Once you cycle through them, there’s one simple answer – the Astros are just better. That’s a big problem.
If the Mets want to win a World Series, the Astros are a potential roadblock. If not them, the New York Yankees, who are having a historically great season.
Before that, there’s the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and really, the seeming randomness of the postseason.
For the Mets, they need to admit their problems and find solutions. Really, they’re pretty obvious.
First and foremost, J.D. Davis is not a DH. They need to stop forcing it. Maybe the team gives Dominic Smith another look. Maybe they call-up Mark Vientos.
Whatever the Mets decide, they can’t play Davis anymore. He’s been a disaster. Sure, people will run to say the same about Smith, but whatever. Point is, DH is a black hole for the Mets.
This alludes to another issue. With Francisco Lindor struggling again (potentially due to the broken finger), Pete Alonso is the ONLY power threat.
The Mets need to try to give someone a look there before they can make a trade. While we’re on that subject, Chasen Shreve can’t pitch for this team again.
Shreve hasn’t performed for two months now, and he’s getting worse. The Mets need to find his replacement ASAP. While they’re at it, it couldn’t hurt to add another reliever for the late innings.
There’s some other areas to address. However, Jeff McNeil’s versatility and Luis Guillorme’s glove answers many of those problems.
There’s more from there, but those potential problem areas may be overstated. Overall, we see against better pitching and fielding teams, the put the ball in plat approach fails. That’s been very true for the Mets.
None of this is an overreaction. The Mets are great and can win a World Series. However, that doesn’t change the facts. The Astros are in a different class than the Mets.
That’s with or without deGrom and Scherzer. Yes. deGrom and Scherzer can lead the Mets to a World Series. They can also lose due to the inability to score runs against good pitching and defense teams.
With each day, the Mets issues become more apparent. Fortunately, there’s still time to address them. Hopefully, the Mets admit them now and become incredibly pro-active.
For the past few seasons, the June Swoon has been a thing for the New York Mets. It has been what has derailed otherwise promising seasons, and it has left the team playing catch-up in the second half.
In 2015, the Mets entered June tied for first place, and after playing under .500 for the month found themselves 3.5 games back. They needed a torrid second half to win the division, and that second half hot streak carried them to a pennant.
The following season, the Mets were again under .500 putting them 6.0 games back of the Washington Nationals. For all intents and purposes, the NL East race was all but wrapped up, and the team had to do a mad dash to claim the top Wild Card.
The 2017 and 2018 seasons were disasters before the Mets reached June. Notably, the Mets were especially bad in June 2018 going 5-21 over the course of the month ruining any chance of the team looking to make the postseason.
That ushered in the Brodie Van Wagenen Error, sorry Era. It should come as no surprise he did nothing to build a team to avoid the June Swoon. That year, the Mets were 10-18, and despite their late season attempts, they couldn’t quite get back into the postseason race. Again, Van Wagenenn was terrible at his job.
The 2020 season saw the pandemic, and in 2021 we had hoped things were different. Sadly, they were not. The Mets were in first by 4.0 games after a hot May, but they fell to a .500 month in June. Over the course of that month, the Mets saw their lead drop to 2.5 games. What was most troubling about that stretch was the team had opportunities to bury their NL East opponents, but they just couldn’t do it.
Many thought this year would be different. In many ways, it was. After all, the Mets will have an over .500 June for the first time since 2012. Yes, it has been a decade since the Mets were over .500 in the month of June.
That’s not to say the Mets had a great month. After all, so far, they are “only” 13-10 (.565) this month. Keep in mind, the Mets are so good we can now view a .565 winning percentage (92 win pace) as a June Swoon. Partially, that is the result of the Mets NL East lead dwindling from 10.5 games to 5.0 games.
This isn’t necessarily because the Mets were bad. After all, they were over .500 despite not having Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer. They have also seen Jeff McNeil deal with hamstring issues, Brandon Nimmo deal with wrist issues, and James McCann out with a hand injury. Looking at everything, the Mets had to overcome a lot.
Fact is, they did. They withstood a tough schedule and a red hot Atlanta Braves team to maintain a 5.0 game lead. They played over .500 baseball. Now, their schedule for the rest of the season is going to be a lot easier allowing them to expand that lead and get on a roll heading to the postseason.
This team had a June Swoon, but because they are so good, it wasn’t nearly as bad as we have seen in the past. Despite the tough schedule and scheduling and the injuries, the Mets withstood the test. They proved their mettle. They showed how this is the best team in the National League, and they are going to win the 2022 World Series.
The New York Mets are going to lose games, and they are especially going to lose games where the starting pitcher is great. That was the case with Yu Darvish, who had no-hit stuff. Mark Canha got a hit in the sixth, and it was one of two total from the Mets, so there’s that.
Really, at the end of the day, no one should care about losing this game. It’s going to happen. It will happen many times this season. That said, there was something very troubling during that game.
Both Starling Marte and Pete Alonso left the game with injury.
Marte seemed to injure his leg on a stolen base attempt. First, he was thrown out, and then after he tried to give it a go, he was out of the game. Later in the game, Alonso was hit on the hand with a pitch, and he had trouble with his grip
Both had imaging, and the early results were negative. While initial good news, we have seen through the years how quads and hand injuries can linger. That is even if subsequent MRIs prove to be negative.
Now, we can argue the Mets could handle the absence of either for a prolonged period of time. After all, the Mets are in first place without Jacob deGrom throwing a pitch, and they are 13-6 (.684) with both deGrom and Scherzer out of the rotation. Keep in mind, Tylor Megill was also out of the rotation.
Certainly, the Mets could navigate losing Marte even with how good he has been. Jeff McNeil can shift to left with Canha going to right. Of course, this is dependent on Luis Guillorme playing like an everyday player, which he has even with his latest slump. The Mets also have the option of playing Nick Plummer everyday in right, which he has showed he may be capable of doing right now.
With Alonso is where things get dicey. You could shift Canha to first with McNeil and Plummer in the outfield, but Canha isn’t ready to play first everyday. As noted by Buck Showalter, J.D. Davis neither has the footwork nor the instincts, but he sure has the arm. Considering that was the Mets failed talking point about Davis playing left and third, that’s an indication Davis can’t handle the position long term.
In many times, that means the balance of the season could rest with Dominic Smith.
On the bright side, Smith has responded well to the demotion going 4-for-14 with a double, homer, and three RBI over three games. If he can carry that forward, the Mets are not going to miss a beat. There are a few caveats there.
First and foremost, the Mets have to want to bring him back up to take over at first. The team really hasn’t shown a willingness to do that even when Smith had his good moments this season. They seem more comfortable giving Davis a run because we are all pretending his hot streak of hitting .286/.360/.381 over seven games means he can justify playing first or DH.
The other caveat here is Smith has to do it. He just hasn’t this year. For him, it is very possible the Mets are going to desperately need him to do it now. In reality, Smith desperately needs to as well because if he doesn’t, it just may mean the end of his Mets career.
So, in the end, this 7-0 loss went from bad loss to existential crisis. We’ll see if this moves to panic as the MRI results come back.
The New York Mets are in first place in what appears to be a very weak National League East. They’re an astounding 26-12 against under .500 teams. Make no mistake, the Mets are where they are because they are absolutely demolishing bad teams.
If nothing else, this proves the Mets are a great team with nothing to prove.
Look, you can only play the teams on your schedule, and you have to beat the teams on your schedule. So far for the Mets, that schedule has them at 35-17 this season. They have more wins than any team in baseball, and they have the best winning percentage in the National League. This is what good teams do, and the great teams do it while battling adversity.
Jacob deGrom has not thrown an inning this season. Tylor Megill and Max Scherzer hitting the IL have the Mets stretching out Trevor Williams, who has answered the call. The Mets are also without their starting catcher James McCann. Trevor May, a key reliever, has been injured all season long.
Going deeper, the team had the mess of the Robinson Cano situation to start the season. That helped lead to J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith having slow starts. Between the slow start and pitching injuries, this led to Smith’s demotion to Triple-A.
On the converse, players like Luis Guillorme have emerged. We have also seen Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil return to form. It also helps the Mets had far more pitching depth than anyone anticipated entering the season. After all, who expected Colin Holderman and Stephen Nogosek to have this much of an impact?
Really, everyone has had an impact this season. On that note, look no further than Nick Plummer. Plummer had a game tying homer in the ninth in his first ever start. He then homered in his next start. Remember, this was a guy once labeled a bust while in the St. Louis Cardinals organization.
Every time you see the Mets, they are winning. They are doing it in all different ways. Their schedule is their schedule, and they are taking care of business. As an aside, that includes against teams with a winning record as the Mets are 9-5 against those teams.
Digging deeper, the Dodgers only have played seven games against teams with a winning record, and they have the second best winning percentage in the NL. To be fair here, their recent history suggests they have nothing to prove.
That said, the San Diego Padres are ten games over .500 (30-20) despite being 6-9 against teams with a winning record. Moreover, the Los Angeles Angels are in second place in the NL West despite having a 5-10 record against teams with a winning record.
Are we really supposed to believe this 10 game stretch out west is a litmus test for this Mets team? This is somehow their third trip out West. They’re playing with a depleted pitching rotation. Somehow, people want to take these next 10 games to determine if the Mets are good or not?
If that’s what they need, they just haven’t paying attention. The Mets are a very good team who is going to be better as they get healthier. This may be a chance to make another statement, but nothing they have done this season is by accident. They are doing what good teams do. If you need to see more it is because you refuse to acknowledge how good this Mets team is.
Ultimately, that is a you problem and not a Mets problem. The Mets have a chance to make a statement, but they will not be defined by this stretch. In the end, they will be defined by winning the NL East and going on to winning a World Series with deGrom and Scherzer leading the way.
Let’s start with the obvious. Dallas Keuchel looks like he’s got nothing left. That’s a massive reason why the Chicago White Sox designated him for assignment.
You don’t just give $18 million to someone not to play for you unless he can’t give you anything. From a New York Mets perspective, think Robinson Canó.
In terms of Canó, the San Diego Padres took a flier once he cleared waivers. For the league minimum, nearly anyone is worth the risk.
This season, Keuchel has made eight starts and has averaged 4.0 innings per start. He has a 7.88 ERA, 49 ERA+, 6.20 FIP, and a -1.1 WAR.
This came off of what was his worst ever season in 2021. He was actually fine in the first half last year, but it all seemed to fall apart in the second half.
There could be many reasons for this including the crackdown on pitching substances like Spidertack. Whatever the case, he just seems to get worse and worse.
On that point, the Mets just started Thomas Szapucki, who was not ready to make that start. That was readily apparent when he allowed nine earned over 1.1 innings against the San Francisco Giants.
That’s not as bad as Keuchel’s April 20 start where he allowed 10 earned over an inning. That said, even with Keuchel being terribly leading to the DFA, he’s been better than what Szapucki showed.
That’s all the Mets would need him to be right now, especially since they don’t seem to be inclined to stretch out Trevor Williams. Perhaps, Keuchel and Williams can piggyback starts.
It’s at least worth a shot right now. The Mets are still missing Jacob deGrom, Tylor Megill, and Max Scherzer. They may not get any of them back for at least a month.
At this point of the year, teams aren’t making trades. That leaves you taking flyers on players like Keuchel. It’s also why you have a pitching coach in Jeremy Hefner. He could have the mechanics tweak or sequencing change to get something, anything out of Keuchel.
Maybe in the long run, Keuchel can only be effective for 1-2 innings. That would be fine for the Mets with Chasen Shreve and Joely Rodriguez not pitching all that well.
And maybe, Keuchel has nothing. Here’s the thing – the Mets have nothing right now. As a result, take the flyer on him. If it works, great. If not, just designate him for assignment until the next arm is available or a pitcher returns off the IL.