Jacob deGrom
Back in 2015, the Mets somehow held onto a Game 5 and series clinching win against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Despite having nothing, Jacob deGrom kept the Dodgers to two runs over six innings. That was more than enough as Daniel Murphy took over that game in what was one of the truly great postseason games a player has ever had.
He’d double home the first run of the game in the first off Zack Greinke. On a fourth inning walk to Lucas Duda, Murphy went first to third against a shifted and lackadaisical Dodgers infield allowing him to score the tying run on a Travis d’Arnaud sacrifice fly.
The big blow came in the sixth when Murphy hit the go-ahead homer putting the Mets up 3-2.
After a scoreless sixth, it was Noah Syndergaard with a scoreless seventh followed by Jeurys Familia recording the six out save to send the Mets to the NLCS and eventually the World Series.
At the time, the Mets seemed to be the young team on the rise. In addition to deGrom, Syndergaard, and Familia, the team had Matt Harvey, Michael Conforto, Steven Matz, and eventually Zack Wheeler again.
The team also had a highly rated farm system, albeit one they raided for this one with a myriad of trades including Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa for Yoenis Cespedes.
In 2016, both teams returned to the postseason. The Mets captured the top Wild Card spot only to be shut out by Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants. That year, the Dodgers would lose in the NLCS to the eventual World Series winning Chicago Cubs (two years later and that sentence still seems bizarre).
After that, the Mets have had consecutive losing seasons while the Dodgers have gone to back-to-back World Series. Why?
Well, for starters, the Dodgers build a deep team with a deep bench. They do not have top heavy rosters which crumble when there is one injury. For example, Clayton Kershaw has not thrown over 175.0 innings in a season since that NLDS, and yet, the Dodgers remain a great team.
Also, while the Mets are off purging the Murphys and Justin Turners of the world, the Dodgers are finding them. In addition to Turner, we have also seen Chris Taylor and Max Muncy figure things out in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are also not afraid to take risks or trust their young players. Gone from the 2015 team are Howie Kendrick, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Jimmy Rollins. Instead, the Dodgers have players like Cody Bellinger.
For the Mets part, well, Adrian Gonzalez was their Opening Day first baseman.
Mostly, the separation has been financial. The Dodgers ownership has been willing and motivated to keep this championship window as open as possible, and they have with the largest payroll in baseball.
Looking between the 2015 NLDS and 2018 NLCS, Turner, Joc Pederson, and Yasmani Grandal were the only players in both starting lineups. Pederson and Grandal are still under 30.
On the pitching front, Kershaw, Pedro Baez, Alex Wood, and Kenley Jansen were the only pitchers to pitch in both series.
The Dodgers are not just a financial juggernaut, but they are also a supremely well run organization. This is a complete opposite of what the Mets have been, and judging from their current GM search, will continue to be.
This is all why the Dodgers are competing for World Series while the Mets are once again also-rans.
Starting with the obvious, as constructed today, the Yankees are a far superior team than the New York Mets. With Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Luis Severino, this Yankees team is set up to win 90 plus games a year for the next decade. Given the talent base and how the Yankees are willing to spend, the Yankees should be a fixture in the postseason, much like they were in the late 90s, and that is a prerequisite to winning a World Series.
However, as we saw with this Yankees team for the second straight season, they could not get through the postseason partially because they did not have the ace to help push them through to the World Series.
Last year, it was Justin Verlander, who helped stop the Yankees. In many ways, Verlander has proved to be the Yankees kryptonite. In three different postseasons, Verlander has faced the Yankees, and each time, Verlander’s teams advanced. Last year, Verlander was the ALCS MVP going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA. What made the issue worse for the Yankees is they did not go out and get an eminently available Verlander.
This year, the Yankees were stopped by Chris Sale. Not only did Sale beat the Yankees in Game 1, but he would stop the Yankees in Game 4 in his one inning of work.
With the Yankees window opening last year, they have failed to get an ace to go up against Verlander, Sale, or even Corey Kluber (who the Yankees beat in the 2017 ALDS). Severino has not yet proven to be that guy. Instead of utilizing Justus Sheffield and some other prospect to acquire that ace, they are hoping that he develops into that front line starter himself.
If neither of those things happen, it is hard to imagine how the Yankees can navigate their way through the American League portion of the postseason each and every year. The Astros and Red Sox have every bit the position player talent the Yankees have, and they also have more starting pitching. To that end, it’s difficult to see how exactly the Yankees win a World Series with this core.
Equally as difficult is seeing how the Mets even make the postseason. While the Mets have talent, they are in a division with the upcoming Braves and Phillies teams. Moreover, the Nationals are always ready, willing, and able to spend in free agency to address the deficiencies on their roster. This creates a real uphill battle for a Mets franchise with ownership which continues to serve as an impediment to building a winner.
And yet, if the Mets ever do get to the postseason, they are a really dangerous team. Back in 2015, we saw what Jacob deGrom can do in the postseason and that was before he emerged as the best pitcher in baseball. Similarly, Noah Syndergaard has shown himself to be a big time postseason pitcher. Aside from his strong 2015 rookie campaign, Syndergaard would go pitch-for-pitch with Madison Bumgarner, the best postseason pitcher of this generation, in the 2016 Wild Card Game. What makes that postseason all the more impressive is the emergence of Zack Wheeler this season.
When you substitute Wheeler for 2015 Matt Harvey, you have the type of pitching rotation which can and should carry a team to the World Series.
When you surround this pitching staff with a young core which includes Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Amed Rosario, there is a core of players which can not just make the World Series but win it. So yes, if we are talking about a core of players which can go through the postseason and win the World Series, the Mets have what it takes.
And yet, they don’t have the type of core which can carry them through the regular season. This team is at least one bat short. Maybe two. And that is before you even consider the bullpen.
That’s the real shame of it all. The Yankees have the talent but not the pitching, and that is partially the result of them getting gun shy when it came time to pull the trigger to obtain that ace which can carry a team through the postseason. The Mets have the pitching, and they have that young core, but they have ownership which gets gun shy when it comes time to getting a player they need to win.
In the end, the Mets have a better core of players which can carry you to the World Series, but it doesn’t really matter because unless things change, the Mets will be sitting on the sidelines watching this Yankees core squander away without a legitimate ace.
When the Mets hire a new General Manager, one of his, or in the case of Kim Ng getting the job, her, first duties is to decide if they want to retain Mickey Callaway as the Mets manager. Given how Callaway may come attached at the hip with Dave Eiland and seeing how this pitching rotation took off this year, you’d be inclined to keep Callaway on the job.
However, seeing Aaron Boone in Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS, we know a General Manager needs to look at much more than that. Basically, the new General Manager needs to assess not just if Callaway is the guy who can bring the Mets to the postseason, but he needs to assess if Callaway would stand as an impediment to the Mets winning a World Series.
In the regular season, we have seen some really good and really terrible things from Callaway and his coaching staff. The question is what is fixable and what are flaws which stand in the way.
The negatives have been oft discussed. There was the lineup card incident. Callaway had real difficulty handling the media. We saw him exhaust the bullpen, especially Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, early in the season. He was also not above continuing to go back to that well even with them being overused. At times, the lineups were outright baffling, and unlike some of his other issues, this was something which seemed to get worse (more traditional?) as the season progressed.
On the positive, the Mets players did progress. According to wRC+, Brandon Nimmo was the second best hitter in the National League. Michael Conforto returned to his All Star form. Amed Rosario went from potential bust to improving young player. Jeff McNeil emerged as an everyday second baseman. Lugo became a dominant reliever. As noted previously, the rotation improved. Mostly, this team did not quit even after the season was over after a 5-21 June.
We have also seen Callaway use analytics to inform his decisions. In April, he was started Juan Lagares because Jacob deGrom was a flyball pitcher, and the Cardinals starter, Michael Wacha, had reverse splits. Essentially, he is well versed in analytics, and he’s able to use them to inform his decision making.
He’s also an aggressive manager. On multiple occasions, he brought in a reliever to force the other managers hand. Instead of being reactive to another manager’s pinch hitting choice, Callaway ensured he brought in his better pitcher to get a worse hitter up at the plate thereby ensuring himself of the better match-up.
Essentially, there’s enough here to suggest Callaway is the right guy for the job, but make no mistake, it is not a clear-cut decision. While he was strong in motivating and developing players as well as being aggressive in his pitching decisions, his position player choices left something to be desired and arguably got worse as the season progressed.
In the end, if the Mets are going to keep him or replace him, they better be right.
Things got so out of control in the Yankees 16-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the ALDS, Austin Romine would pitch the top of the ninth inning. In that inning, he would surrender a two run homer to Brock Holt. By allowing that homer, not only did Holt become the first ever player to have a postseason cycle (62 years to the day after Don Larsen threw the only perfect game in postseason history), but he would have an 18.00 ERA.
Coincidentally, with Luis Severino allowing six earned in his three innings of work yesterday, his ERA this postseason is also 18.00. Now, even with his second half, no one could have really predicted Severino would be this bad in the ALDS. However, everyone knew the Yankees needed more pitching heading if they were going to get through this postseason.
Instead of making the big game changing move, the Yankees instead decided to fill-in around the edges. They traded for J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn. The Happ moved seemed obvious as he has a history of beating the Red Sox, who then, were the Yankees most likely opponent in the ALDS. Those good numbers against the Red Sox translated to five earned in two innings in the Yankees Game 1 loss.
Lynn relieved Happ in that Game 1, and he did provide the Yankees with two scoreless innings, which gave the team a chance to get back into that game. Lynn was not up to the task yesterday. Like Severino, he struggled mightily allowing three earned in one-third of an inning. If the game wasn’t over by then, it was after Lynn’s appearance.
Now, with the season on the line, the Yankees are turning to CC Sabathia. On the one hand, Sabathia is a savvy veteran who is going to give the Yankees a chance to win this game. After all, he was 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA this season. On the other, Sabathia had a 5.40 ERA in September. He also hasn’t pitched in almost two weeks. You have to question how sharp he will be against a red hot Red Sox offense.
If you were the Yankees, wouldn’t you want a big time ace like, say, Jacob deGrom , take the mound today?
Now, it’s quite possible no deal between the Mets and Yankees could ever be made. Certainly not one of this magnitude. In the opinion of many, for the Mets to even begin considering such a deal, the Yankees would have to part with Gleyber Torres. While Torres is hitting just .250 this postseason with no extra-base hits, he’s a 21 year old potential superstar.
If you are the Yankees, do you really want to part with that? Even to raise the Yankees chances to win the World Series for the next three years? The Yankees said no even if this was not how they would have operated two decades ago when they built a dynasty.
For the Yankees, they better hope Gleyber is exactly what they think he will be. They also better hope Severino returns to his first half form and Justus Sheffield emerges as the ace they think he can be. It has to break this way because the Yankees put all of their eggs in this basket. Judging from this year, it may cost them a World Series this year. Who knows what the long term ramifications will be from here?
Tonight was about one thing and one thing only – David Wright.
While we always anticipated he could be shut down at any time without warning, after he homered in his third straight game, no one truly expected May 27, 2016 to be his final game as a Met.
In a pleasant surprise,Mickey Callaway said pregame that Wright was going to pinch hit tonight. To ensure he got in, Callaway assured us Wright was going to be the first pinch hitter of the game.
For a brief moment, it appeared that would be the bottom of the fourth. A noticeably nervous Wright emerged from the dugout and the fans erupted.
While Wright began a routine both familiar from his 13 year career and yet new from this being an all too different experience all together, he dropped the bat.
He picked it up and continued that routine etched in our memories. Alas, with Kevin Plawecki grounding out to end the inning, the process would have to begin anew in the fifth.
What a moment. #OurCaptain pic.twitter.com/n8rmX2WC3D
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 29, 2018
As I saw this, I knew it was time. My oldest was up next to me in eager anticipation of the moment. We had been talking about it all night, and he was telling me how cool each of the highlights of him was.
I went and I got the baby out of his crib. I had each of my boys on my lap to watch a baseball game. It wasn’t the first time it’s ever happened, but it was the first big Mets moment since my youngest was born.
There was no option other than sharing this important moment with my sons. One day when they are older, they can each honestly say they saw David Wright play.
It’s not too dissimilar how my dad made sure I saw Tom Seaver pitch, or how he actually turned off the Mets game one day as my brother and I watched as Nolan Ryan won his 300th game.
So while my phone was abuzz with texts from my brother and dad, I sat there with my boys on my lap, and we watched Wright eagerly swing at Jose Urena‘s first pitch:
Welcome back, Captain. #OurCaptain pic.twitter.com/o5Sk2cjSex
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 29, 2018
Even with all that Jacob deGrom has done, that groundout to third was the top moment of 2018 because for a brief moment David Wright was once again a Met.
Game Notes: In case you were wondering, the Mets lost 8-1.
We have seen Jacob deGrom have a historically great season. However, was it an all-time best Mets season at least as judged by WAR? Can you name the players who have had the 10 best seasons in Mets history? Good luck!
Tom Seaver Dwight Gooden Jon Matlack Bernard Gilkey David Wright Carlos Beltran John Olerud
Over the past decade, there seems to have been a shift in the MVP voting. While it has traditionally been an awarded given to the best player or a difference maker on a postseason contender, there has been an increasing push to give the award to the best player. Largely, this is the reason why we have seen Mike Trout win the 2016 AL MVP over Mookie Betts despite the Angels being under .500 and in fourth place in the AL West. It was also the reason Giancarlo Stanton won last year.
Trout was hardly unique in winning the MVP despite playing for a second division team. Alex Rodriguez won the 2003 MVP because not only was he by far the best player in the American League, but there was also no real position player who emerged as a legitimate contender for the award. The other classic example was Andre Dawson winning the 1987 NL MVP. He won because by that generation’s standards 49 homers and 137 RBI were far too much to be ignored.
In addition to under players from under .500 teams winning the MVP, we have also seen pitchers win an MVP. In fact, there have been seven starting pitchers and three relievers to win the award. What is interesting is two of the pitchers who have been named MVP have come in the past decade. The first was Justin Verlander, who won the Cy Young and MVP in 2011. The other was Clayton Kershaw, who won both awards in 2014.
Up until this point, we have not seen a starting pitcher from under .500 team win the MVP award. Perhaps with the historic season he has had, it is time Jacob deGrom becomes that pitcher.
Looking at the league leaders right now, deGrom leads the National League with a 10.3 WAR. Despite the epic run Christian Yelich is on to close out the season, deGrom leads him in WAR by 3.3. Even with Yelich having four games left in his season, it is safe to say deGrom is going to beat him in this category by a healthy margin.
Now, if you go through the past decade of MVP award voting, there has only been one player who has amassed a WAR of at least 10.0. That was Bryce Harper who was the unanimous 2015 NL MVP. As an important side note, Zack Greinke, who had a 9.7 WAR and 1.66 ERA finished second. Moreover, the lowest WAR for an MVP award winner was Joey Votto who had a 7.0 WAR in 2010.
Digging a little deeper, no one with a WAR of at least 10.0 has not won the MVP award in the National League since 2001. That year Sammy Sosa and his 10.3 WAR lost to Barry Bonds and his 11.3 WAR. Previous to Sosa losing, the last time a National League player had a WAR of at least 10.0 and did not win the MVP was 1964 when Willie Mays lost to Ken Boyer. To a certain extent, you could make the case a 10.0 WAR is one of those magic thresholds which should merit you the MVP award.
One of the reasons why National Leaguers who have accumulated at least 10.0 WAR have won the MVP is because it is a truly astonishing feat. The National League was founded in 1876. In the 142 year history of the National League, there are just nine position players who have ever amassed a 10.0 WAR: Rogers Hornsby, Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, Joe Morgan, Sammy Sosa, Ernie Banks, and Bryce Harper. All nine of these players have at least one MVP award.
This century, there are just two National League pitchers to have at least a 10.0 WAR – Randy Johnson and deGrom. Johnson didn’t win the MVP the years he amassed over a 10.0 WAR partially because Bonds was putting up historic numbers while posting a higher WAR.
In fact, over the last 30 years, that list is just Johnson and deGrom. Over the last 50, that list is Dwight Gooden, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Phil Niekro, Johnson, and deGrom. With the exception of Gooden, each of these pitchers were Hall of Famers. With the exception of Niekro, these were first ballot Hall of Famers.
That’s the level of season deGrom just had. It was not just all-time great, it was the type of season a Hall of Famer would have.
With his 24 consecutive quality starts, he broke the record Bob Gibson and Chris Carpenter shared. He has set the Major League record with 29 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or less. He’s the only pitcher since 1900 to have a season where he has has at least 250 strikeouts, 50 or fewer walks, 10 or fewer home runs allowed, and an ERA under 2.00.
Overall, Jacob deGrom did just have a great season, he just had an all-time great season. In fact, his 2018 season is on the short list for the greatest seasons a pitcher has ever had. Certainly, that’s more than enough for him to win the Cy Young. It should also be enough for him to win the MVP Award.
Just when you thought you’ve seen it all from Jacob deGrom this year, he had one final special moment in store for us all.
Finally, in his sixth start against them, deGrom would beat the Braves. Despite him allowing just four earned in 33.0 innings against the Braves this year (1.09 ERA), he was 0-2 against the Braves this year with the Mets 0-5 in his starts. Really, to beat the Braves, deGrom needed to shut them out.
With him possibly getting the opportunity to clinch the Cy Young, deGrom would do just that pitching eight scoreless and completely dominant innings.
Ronald Acuna, Jr. led off the game with a single. Johan Camargo led off the second with a single. That was it. No other Braves batter would get a hit.
It was not until the sixth the Braves would have a batter reach safely, and that was an all too fleeting moment for the Braves.
Acuna would strike out swinging on a wild pitch, and he’d take off for first. However, he was ruled to have rounded first, and as such, when he was tagged by Dominic Smith, the inning was over.
While deGrom was phenomenal, even by his standards, he didn’t do it alone. In fact, Jeff McNeil was a wizard making not just one
Smooth, @JeffMcNeil805, real smooth. ? pic.twitter.com/2M6uLij63r
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 27, 2018
but two brilliant defensive plays
We have no words to describe this. Just enjoy. #RealDeal pic.twitter.com/hSVAaNXIex
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 27, 2018
Unlike deGrom’s previous five starts against the Braves, and really most of his starts this seasons, he would get enough run support. Tonight, that support would come from the bats of Michael Conforto and Smith.
In the sixth, Conforto hit a one out double off Braves reliever Luke Jackson. Smith would deliver a two out single giving the Mets a 1-0 lead, which was all the run support deGrom needed.
For good measure, Conforto and Smith would homer in the eighth. Each homer was impressive in their own right.
Smith was an opposite field shot, and Conforto’s was an absolute bomb which landed near the Shea Bridge. It would be his career best 28th homer.
That 3-0 lead was more than enough.
deGrom would finish the night strong striking out three of the last four batters he faced. With his striking out Ozzie Albies to end the eighth, he recorded his 1,000th career strikeout:
1⃣,0⃣0⃣0⃣ career strikeouts for @JdeGrom19. The fastest #Mets pitcher to get there.
News flash: This guy's good. pic.twitter.com/NeeMHtbdOe
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 27, 2018
His final line for the night was 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K.
When Seth Lugo closed out the ninth for his third career save, deGrom finally got his 10th win. If he does go on to win the Cy Young, it will be the fewest wins from a Cy Young award winning starter.
All told, deGrom finished the year 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, and an 11.2 K/9.
He became just the third pitcher in MLB history with a sub 2.00 ERA, more than 250 strikeouts, and fewer than 50 walks.
That’s deGromination.
Game Notes: There was some consternation over deGrom not coming out to get cheered and depart the game. Under MLB rules, if he stepped on the field, he would have been required to face at least one batter.
That Cy Young Award is now so close for Jacob deGrom he can almost taste it. While Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola have slipped this month, deGrom continues setting records.
With his win tonight (A WIN!), he broke the record he shared with Bob Gibson and Chris Carpenter for consecutive quality starts in a season.
In his seven innings of work, deGrom allowed just one earned on three hits with a walk and eight strikeouts. He would lower his MLB best ERA to 1.77.
After Wilmer Difo hit a second inning sacrifice fly, deGrom would only yield one base hit. That lone base runner wouldn’t get past first.
Unlike other games where deGrom has taken the loss for a terrific start like this, he would get that rare win.
Amed Rosario hit the first pitch of the game for a double. Victor Robles misplayed it, but Rosario didn’t head to third. For a moment, it looked like Rosario would be stranded there, but Jay Bruce blooped a two out single to give the Mets a 1-0 lead.
After the Nationals tied it in the second, the Mets got the lead again in a big three run third.
That rally was started with Michael Conforto and Bruce hitting consecutive one out doubles off Nationals starter Joe Ross.
Dominic Smith brought home Bruce with a key two out RBI. After an uncharacteristic Anthony Rendon error allowed Todd Frazier to reach, Devin Mesoraco doubled home Rosario.
At that point, it was 4-1 Mets, and deGrom was in the drivers seat. Effectively speaking, both offenses went completely silent. That meant the cushion the Mets have deGrom was more than sufficient.
Seth Lugo pitched a scoreless eighth, and Robert Gsellman had an eventful ninth. He’d get through it allowing just one run with some help as Conforto made a leaping catch to take a hit away from Bryce Harper.
With the 4-2 win, both the Nationals and deGrom now see their records at .500. With how the season has gone,
Game Notes: After not playing in over two weeks, Mesorsco was 3-for-3 with a double, RBI, and
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