Jacob deGrom
This was the typical Jacob deGrom start in that he was great, and he got little to no help from his offense.
deGrom would only struggle in the third. In that inning, he loaded the bases with one out. That was partially the result of his struggling with his command walking two batters. Unlike last night in his at-bat against Seth Lugo, Jose Abreu took advantage hitting a sacrifice fly giving the White Sox a 1-0 lead.
Things got dicey with deGrom then walking AJ Reed on four pitches to again load the bases. He’d finally settle in striking out Eloy Jimenez to end the inning.
From there, deGrom would retire nine straight and 12 of the last 14 he faced. In total, he pitched seven innings allowing in run on five hits while walking two and striking out 11. Being this is deGrom, he would get the no decision for this typically great deGrom effort.
One of the reasons why was Lucas Giolito was arguably better on the night. The Mets wouldn’t get a runner into scoring position against him until Todd Frazier hit a leadoff double in the fifth. Giolito responded by getting the next three in a row to strand Frazier there.
Giolito did not have the same luck on the sixth after issuing a leadoff walk to Michael Conforto. After striking out Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano singled putting runners at the corners. Wilson Ramos hit a slow chopper to third, and Conforto broke home on the contact play. Conforto was safe on a nifty slide tying the game at 1-1.
That slide from @mconforto8. ? pic.twitter.com/hTUXUHITpE
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 1, 2019
J.D. Davis had a chance to give the Mets a lead, but because this isn’t Citi Field, he hit into an inning ending double play.
Giolito settled back in, and he shut down the Mets allowing just the one run on three hits with three walks and nine strikeouts over 7.0 innings.
This became a battle of the bullpens, and Justin Wilson somehow got through the eighth unscathed. With runners at first and second and two outs, Jon Jay hit the ball up the middle. On the play, it was very difficult to see if Cano was going to get to it. It didn’t matter as the ball hit second base umpire Stew Scheurwater. That meant instead of a potential go-ahead RBI, it was an infield single and a dead ball.
As Gary Cohen was contemplating if you should bring in the warming Jeurys Familia, Ron Darling was rather forceful in saying Mickey Callaway should stick with Wilson. Callaway stuck with Wilson, and he got out of the jam getting Tim Anderson to ground out.
Against White Sox closer Alex Colome, Ramos would lead off with a grounder twice booted by Anderson. After Davis singled up the middle, Aaron Altherr pinch ran for Ramos. It proved to be the right decision as he scored easily on a Todd Frazier RBI single. It’s very likely Ramos was not sent or would be thrown out if he remained in the game.
The Mets had a chance to add-on with the bases loaded, and for a moment it looked like they’d squander the chance when Jeff McNeil struck out. It was not his night going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts. While it wasn’t his night, it was Conforto’s hitting a two out two run single expanding the Mets lead to 4-1.
That left breathing room for Edwin Diaz, who was not traded, to get the save. He looked much different tonight than he has most of the season striking out the first two he faced. After a Leury Garcia homer, things felt much more ominous, but Diaz settled in to record his 24th save of the season in the Mets 4-2 win.
Mets have now won six in a row, and with the Nationals losing today, they’re closer to at least one of the teams ahead of them. It’s becoming more and more real.
Game Notes: Zack Wheeler was not traded at the deadline, and he is scheduled to pitch tomorrow with Marcus Stroman slated to make his Mets debut Saturday.
The New York Mets are five games out of the Wild Card. The two teams immediately ahead of them, the Diamondbacks and the Giants, appear to be selling. After the dust clears today, it would appear the Wild Card race is going to be the among the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Phillies, and maybe the Mets.
On the National League Central front, it is three teams fighting for the division. There will be a lot of head-to-head games between them, and it is possible one of those teams fall way out of the race. Reasonably speaking, that could be the Brewers who have a -17 run differential and don’t have the pitching they did last year. It should also be noted after a big May, the Cubs have been a sub .500 club.
In the National League East, the Mets have six games each against the Nationals and Phillies putting the Mets fate in their own hands. For that matter, they also have three at home against the Cubs. As things stand, the Mets can really help themselves against everyone against the Cardinals and Brewers.
This doesn’t mean the Mets have a good chance. They are four games under .500, and they are still without a real center fielder. With Dominic Smith on the Injured List, they are down one key bat. We have also seen Pete Alonso slump in the second half. And yet, the Mets still have a viable chance to claim a Wild Card.
After all, at the moment their starting five is Jacob deGrom–Noah Syndergaard–Marcus Stroman–Zack Wheeler–Steven Matz. There is no better starting five in baseball. With the pitchers going deeper into games, and with their bullpen arms being healthier, the bullpen has been better of late. Of course, it helps that the team has Seth Lugo, who is phenomenal.
The question for the Mets today is what do you do? Do you add, sell, or stand pat?
If the Mets are willing to give Wheeler a qualifying offer, the team should keep him unless they are getting an offer for a player significantly better than the player they could draft with their compensation pick. The team should not trade Edwin Diaz unless they are going to be like the Indians and get a package similar to Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen, Scott Moss, and Victor Nova. Short of that, pass.
Under no circumstances should the Mets trade Syndergaard. It’s not worth it. You’re not going to improve the team this year or the next by doing it.
Overall, the Mets could trade Todd Frazier, but it would seem odd to do that when they just obtained Stroman who needs a good infield defense. The Mets could put Jeff McNeil at third, but they don’t have anyone to put in the outfield. The team should trade Wilson Ramos for whatever they can get. He’s not helping this year or the next. He’s a hindrance. Perhaps, the Mets could look for cost controlled relievers like Mychal Givens but only for the right price.
Overall, the Mets are in a limbo right now. They’re in a position where they could contend this year, but probably won’t. Still, their schedule will allow them to make a run. With Stroman, they are setting themselves up to compete next year, so they can’t purge long term pieces, and with them having a chance now, they shouldn’t be just salary dumping players like Frazier.
In the end, the Mets just need to stand pat. That is unless they are blown away with an offer for Diaz, or they could make an offer to get that center fielder not in their system or on the free agent market this offseason. There are so many different possibilities, but in the end, perhaps the best choice is just to do nothing and ride this out.
Before going into the weeds on the cost, it should first be noted the Mets are a much better team for getting Marcus Stroman. This is a pitcher who has pitched quite well in the AL East, and he is a pitcher with big game experience being named the World Baseball Classic MVP in addition to some really good postseason performances.
Stroman grew up a Mets fan, and as a result, the Mets are getting a player who should become a fan favorite in short order. Assuming no other moves for a moment, the Mets rotation is very clearly the best in baseball, and you can argue acquiring Stroman makes their chances of making the postseason this year significantly better.
The one ding people will bring up with Stroman is he’s reliant upon a good infield defense to be successful, and the Mets defense has not been good this year. On that note, the Blue Jays have been a below average defensive team this year with a -6 DRS with them having a -4 DRS at first, -9 DRS at second, 1 DRS at third, and a 0 DRS at shortstop. With the Mets having Todd Frazier at third and Amed Rosario playing a to positive DRS in the second half, they fair well in comparison to the Blue Jays. Eliminate the turf, and you can argue this is actually a better situation for Stroman to be even better.
Now, if the Mets were in the position the Braves were in, you understand this trade. Stroman is the piece which arguably puts the Mets over the top. When you roll out Jacob deGrom–Noah Syndergaard–Marcus Stroman–Zack Wheeler–Steven Matz in your rotation, you’re dangerous in both the regular season and post season. As for the bullpen issues, with that collection of five guys, the Mets could take a page out of Alex Cora‘s book last postseason and utilize their starters to dominate the entire series.
Stroman would be an overpay, but it would be one along the lines of the Cubs trading Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman. If you win the World Series, who cares? In some ways, Stroman is even better than that because he is under control for next year as well. This not only gives you the best rotation in baseball right now, but it puts you in a position where you’ve insulated your team from losing Wheeler in the offseason.
The problem with the Mets is they’re five games under .500, and they are six games out of the division and the Wild Card. They are in real striking distance, but they also have many obstacles in their way.
The Mets have three teams ahead of them in the division, and they have four teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. The team just lost Dominic Smith which somehow depletes an already suspect outfield depth even further, and it also stands in the way of the Mets finding some more games for Pete Alonso, who is really struggling so far in the second half.
Speaking of depth, the Mets already suspect starting pitching depth did take a hit. On the one hand, yes, assuming no other moves, acquiring Stroman exponentially improves the depth as he’s a significant upgrade over Jason Vargas, who should now find himself in the bullpen. On that note, the bullpen also looks better. However, that assumes no other moves.
At the moment, it seems the Mets are looking to move Noah Syndergaard in a companion move to help fill out the current roster. Of note, the team still desperately needs a center fielder. It should be noted with the current rumors, Manuel Margot isn’t that guy. He’s yet to be a league average hitter in his career, and he’s a -1 DRS this year in center. On that front, it should be noted he was really good prior to this year with an 8 DRS in 2017 and a 9 DRS in 2018.
If the Mets move Syndergaard, they are again relying on Walker Lockett and Corey Oswalt to be their starting pitching depth this year and the next. Aside from one Lockett start this year, that is misplaced faith. This means the Mets need David Peterson to step up instead of hoping one of him or Anthony Kay are ready.
Like with trading Justin Dunn to the Mariners, trading Kay hurt the depth, and it deprived the organization of real starting pitching upside. It also eliminated the possibility of taking either pitcher to send them out there and try to replicate with Seth Lugo or to a lesser extent Robert Gsellman are doing.
Being fair, in the end a package headlined by Kay was a fair return for Stroman. It did make sense to gamble Kay away for the year plus of Stroman, especially if you are really going to go for it as an organization. On that note, they did not do that after trading Jarred Kelenic and Dunn in the trade for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano. On the Cano point, the Mets are up against the luxury tax next year, and they seem to be already using it as an excuse not to add despite the team collecting tens of millions of dollars in insurance proceeds on David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes while also deferring $12 million of deGrom’s contract.
From a Mets standpoint, the part of the deal which really hurts is Simeon Woods Richardson. This is an 18 year old pitcher already pitching for a full season affiliate. He is getting his fastball up to 97 MPH with a promising and developing curve and change which could both be plus pitches. Despite being almost four years younger than the competition, he is striking out 11.1 batters per nine while having an incredible 5.71 K/BB. This is a special arm, and the Mets traded him away with a top 100 prospect for one plus year of Stroman.
On the Woods Richardson front, the Mets were beyond loaded with teenage talent heading into this year. In addition to him, the Mets had Kelenic, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Shervyen Newton, Luis Santana, and others along with a pitcher like Thomas Szapucki. This was a group poised to break into the majors around 2022, and when they came up, the Mets could have really had a prolonged World Series window open.
With Brodie Van Wagenen as the General Manager, that is what he has been trading away. He has severely hampered the next window from opening. Of course, that assumes the Mets window is currently open. This is a big reason why many baseball people don’t understand this trade. This seems one of those moments like when they pulled off the Cano deal or Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano the Mets are trying to tell us they are smarter then everyone when they’re really not.
Ultimately, you may not like this trade, but you would have certainly understood it if the Mets were 10 games over .500. They’re not. This trade becomes all the more puzzling when you consider they are supposedly doing this as a precursor to trading Syndergaard. Really, when looking at the entire plan right now, none of this makes sense. It makes even less sense if you are trading Syndergaard for prospects because the Mets just obtained one plus year of Stroman and not five.
Overall, this was an overpay for Stroman, and depending on what the Mets do now, it could be a completely unforced error. Typically in these moments, you like to sit and wait before passing judgment on the total plan, but considering how Van Wagenen has lost every trade he’s made thus far, there shouldn’t be much hope this was the first strike in what is one grand master plan.
In essence, enjoy Stroman while he’s a Met. He’s a fun player and really good pitcher who is coming home to pitch for the team he rooted for when he was growing up. Also, root for another hometown kid in Kay and hope Woods Richardson fulfills his potential. Root for everyone to succeed because it helps the Mets in the short term, and it will also help in the long run to remind the Mets that they’re really not better at this than everyone else. They have been and will continue to be considerably worse until Jeff Wilpon realizes he’s the problem.
The Mets took two out of three against the Padres. It is something which should have further propelled them into the Wild Card race. However, after losing three out of four to the Giants, it matters little. Of course, with all things Mets right now, it’s the off the field stuff which really matters.
1. Take all the pitchers across Major League history. I may just take Jacob deGrom in a daytime start over all of them.
2. In 2020, deGrom and Noah Syndergaard should be the best 1-2 punch in baseball, but they won’t be because the Mets are grossly incompetent, and they will look to trade Syndergaard for well under value. What’s humorous about that is the smartest teams in baseball are lining up begging the Mets to be stupid and trade him.
3. The amount of Mets fans who are happy to see Syndergaard traded and can’t recognize the greatness of a top 20 FIP pitcher in a down year is bizarre. Hopefully, these people enjoy watching Walker Lockett pitch every fifth day next year.
4. After the fiasco of trading Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to the Mariners, you would think the Mets would refrain from making bold moves with young talent. But no, they’re going to do something stupid again.
5. Speaking of that trade, Robinson Cano had a three home run game snapping a 3-for-21 stretch. After the game, he would go 1-for-5. These good moments are fleeting.
6. This is a New York baseball franchise, and they are talking about Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler as an either/or proposition and not a as locking up both to win now and in the future. It is emabarassing Major League Baseball allows this to continue especially with the Wilpons pocketing the insurance proceeds from Yoenis Cespedes and David Wright and leveraging the Mets/SNY to keep themselves personally solvent and invest in the Overwatch League.
7. Dominic Smith had a very bad day in left field during Syndergaard’s start. That’s two poor days in the past week. The only conclusion we should draw from this was he’s inexperienced and the Mets decision not to give him time to prepare to be the left fielder during the offseason, Spring Training, and during the regular season was myopic and stupid.
8. No one knows yet if Smith can be capable in left field, but what we have learned with him is we should never count him out.
9. Another point here is the Mets should stick with Smith for the rest of the year as there are no other options on the roster at least until Brandon Nimmo returns. Of course, that assumes he can return at some point this year. Considering his injury and how poorly the Mets handled it, that’s not a safe assumption.
10. Pete Alonso has had a difficult time after the All-Star Break hitting just .125/.333/.350. He’s falling into the same bad habits pulling the ball and striking out which led to his not getting called up at the end of last year. His defense is also slipping of late.
11. It is way too soon to be concerned about Alonso. After all, he followed a bad May with a great June. On the front, we should only caution we do not know where he true talent level lies at the Major League level or what type of player he will be with teams making adjustments pitching to him.
12. The only untouchable players in trades should be deGrom, Syndergaard, and Jeff McNeil. They are the only three players without a suitable replacement for what they do, and the Mets depth chart does not allow them to easily replace them on the roster.
13. With every passing day, the thing which becomes most clear is the Mets need a center fielder. Looking forward, there isn’t going to be one on the free agent market, so before people go up in arms about being willing to trade Alonso, they should first ask themselves the following questions: (1) How do you propose you get a center fielder? (2) Is this team better as is, or would they be better with Smith at first and really good center fielder?
14. Alonso needs to pick it up because he is in danger of getting passed in the Rookie of the Year competition. Recently, Fernando Tatis Jr. has narrowed the WAR gap, and he is surging.
15. Why are the Mets surprised on the lack of interest in Todd Frazier? In addition to him struggling in July, the teams in contention are fairly set at third, and we know the Mets don’t eat money to help facilitate deals or to get better returns.
16. Somewhere M. Donald Grant is laughing while watching Brodie Van Wagenen and Jeff Wilpon make a mockery of this proud franchise. Seriously, this combination may be worse than Grant, and Grant is the person who facilitated the Tom Seaver trade and the Midnight Massacre.
17. Michael Conforto has arguably been the Mets best hitter in the second half which should come as no surprise as he’s a very good hitter. Mets fans really don’t appreciate just how good a player he is.
18. Even with Juan Lagares going 2-for-4 yesterday, he looks done as a baseball player. If so, that’s a sad end to not just an exciting player to watch, but a real hard worker who busted it everyday. Hopefully, this is a one year blip, and he lands on his feet somewhere next year.
19. The Mets have a very talented young core with no hope of winning this year and really the next few years. This is the worst place to be a franchise, and it is a terrible spot to be in as a fan. Again, the Wilpons are incompetent owners, and they put an agent in charge instead of Chaim Bloom. I really don’t know what fans did to deserve this level of incompetence.
20. It’s funny how the Mets are now considering trading Edwin Diaz. Doing so would be to hit the reset button on a terrible trade. An even better idea would be to hit the reset button on a terrible hire and replace Van Wagenen with a capable General Manager.
Jacob deGrom is a great pitcher, perhaps the best there is in all of baseball. When he pitches during the day, there isn’t anyone better. It’s only slightly hyperbole to say you’d take deGrom in the daytime over pitchers like Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, or Christy Mathewson.
Today, deGrom pitched like daytime deGrom allowing just four hits over seven scoreless innings while walking one and striking out nine. Really, he was just toying with the Padres.
⚠️ Caution ⚠️
Batter's box may be slippery when de? is on the mound. pic.twitter.com/kvSMNSjgnZ
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 25, 2019
No Padre would reach third. His season ERA is down to 2.86, and he’s pitching like a guy who is getting momentum towards real Cy Young considerations
In what was a pleasant surprise, he’d get some help. Juan Lagares was able to recover from misreading an Eric Hosmer sixth inning liner to catch the ball and keep the Padres off the board. We’d also see a terrific defensive play from an improving Amed Rosario:
.@Amed_Rosario having himself a day with the glove. ??? pic.twitter.com/jH9w80Xjzw
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 25, 2019
More than that, deGrom would get some rare run support with the Mets jumping all over Eric Lauer in a four run first which was capped off by a Todd Frazier two RBI double and a Michael Conforto RBI single against the shift.
After that Conforto RBI single, the Mets stranded 14 runners on base. That included not scoring runners from scoring position in the second, third, sixth, seventh, and eighth. In the latter two, the Mets left the bases loaded.
Those four runs held up because deGrom was brilliant, Seth Lugo was Seth Lugo, and Luis Avilan pitched a scoreless ninth.
Originally, it was Edwin Diaz in the ninth, but he was hit hard by a Manny Machado liner, and as a result, the Mets played it safe and lifted him from the game.
If the Mets took care of business in San Francisco, there would be real room for excitement in taking two of three from the Padres. Instead, we can just marvel at deGrom’s greatness.
Game Notes: Pete Alonso is struggling out of the break hitting .125. This will certainly cue the Home Run Derby curse takes.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim who used to be of California first designated Matt Harvey for assignment and then later released him. This marked the second time Harvey was designated for assignment in as many years.
Looking at the numbers, you can’t blame the Angels. In 12 starts, he was 3-5 with a 7.09 ERA, 1.542 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9, and a 5.9 K/9. This isn’t the Harvey we all knew from 2012-2015, and it’s not even the Harvey of last year. TOS will do that to you.
The question now is what if anything Harvey has left?
If you want to be positive, he performed reasonably well with the Reds last year. In 24 starts, he was 7-7 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, and a 7.8 K/9.
Looking deeper at last year, he was a different pitcher. According to Brooks Baseball, he threw his fastball 58.35%, his change 11.82%, his slider 23.44%, and his curve 6.00%. This year, we have seen him throw his fastball less and his curve much more.
In fact, his fastball usage is down 13.73% and his curve is up 8.81%. His change and slider usage is relatively the same. On the surface you understand the change with Baseball Savant noting Harvey having a slightly better than average spin on his curve and Fangraphs noting his fastball velocity is down.
Whatever the case, the mix isn’t quite right. For that matter, neither has Harvey. Maybe, he will never be right.
That said, when you’re a team nine games under .500 and continue to dwindle from the limelight, it would make sense to give Harvey another look.
First off, the Mets are currently sending out pitchers like Chris Mazza, Jacob Rhame, Stephen Nogosek, Tyler Bashlor, and a number of other similarly talented pitchers to come out of the bullpen. Looking at it from the Mets perspective, aren’t you better off getting a look at Harvey out of the bullpen to see if you can rekindle something in Harvey? Maybe with Harvey focusing on an inning or two, he can feel more comfortable letting it loose instead of trying to hold something back for later in the game.
With the Mets possibly moving Zack Wheeler and/or Jason Vargas at the trade deadline, the team will need another starter. You could go with Walker Lockett and/or Corey Oswalt (presuming Anthony Kay isn’t ready). You could also see if Harvey could perform better after arguably being “humbled” after leaving.
It’s also possible he will feel more at home with Phil Regan as the pitching coach. Maybe being around friends and teammates like Jacob deGrom can help him rediscover something or find a way to be good again.
As the season progresses, the Mets look all the more like a team playing out the string. In those situations, teams have to make judgment calls, and if teams are properly run, they’re not just going to lose as many games as possible to improve a draft position. Ideally, they’ll try to lose with a purpose.
If the Mets pitch Harvey, either in the bullpen or rotation, they’re losing with a purpose. They’re going to see if they can get him to be an effective pitcher again. Really, if you can get him to pitch out of the bullpen, all the better because with his issues, that may be the best place for him.
Better for the Mets to see if they can get him to be a quality reliever and help a bullpen in need of a few arms than to cycle back through the relievers they’ve seen fail time and again.
Overall, if the Mets are going to lose, they should learn something. It also wouldn’t hurt them to be a little more interesting. If anything, the Wilpons and Brodie Van Wagenen will have a lightning rod to take the attention away from them. Taking all into account, the Mets should just take the flyer on Harvey. After all, there is no possible way things can get worse with him here.
With Zack Wheeler on the Injured List, and his being unsure as to when he can return, the Mets biggest trade chip has now been compromised. As a result, a player who could have fetched one or possible two very good prospects may not fetch nearly the same level of return. This leaves the Mets organization pondering what to do with Wheeler and really all of their trade assets.
Working backwards a bit, Wheeler is not the only expiring contract the Mets have. There is Juan Lagares, who really has zero value on the trade market between his contract and his regression both offensively and defensively. After him is Jason Vargas, who has failed to go at least five innings in 40 percent of his starts. Vargas also threatened to attack a reporter, and he has had a 5.94 ERA since the incident. That in mind, it’s unlikely he has any value on the trade market.
Todd Frazier is having a nice season, but again, you wonder what his market will be. To put things in perspective, in 2017, he was traded by the White Sox to the Yankees for a package including Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo, Blake Rutherford, and Tyler Clippard. Rutherford was a really good get for the White Sox, but that was mostly because they were trading Tommy Kahnle in the deal. Kahnle had been a very good reliever for a year plus, and he was under team control for four plus years.
For the Mets to get a similar return for Frazier, they would have to package him with an Edwin Diaz or a Seth Lugo. Based upon reports, the Mets are not interested in doing that, and you could understand that with the Mets having a young core still intact. It is also a reason the Mets are not looking to move Noah Syndergaard. As a result, the Mets really do not have any good trade chips; at least trade chips which will return anything more than the collection of right-handed relievers they received when they previously traded Addison Reed, Lucas Duda, and Jay Bruce.
Looking deeper, the Mets are “only” five games (four in the loss) out of the second Wild Card. At the moment, it is noticeable how the teams in front of them have done almost nothing to get going and really stake a claim to being a front runner for one of the two Wild Card spots. This is not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2016 where the Mets went from two games under .500 on August 19 to finish the season on a 27-13 tear to claim the top Wild Card spot.
Believe it or not, the Mets schedule actually does set up for another run like this. After today’s game against the White Sox, the Mets have 20 straight games against teams with a losing record. After that, they have a set at home against the Nationals, a team who currently has the top Wild Card spot.
That’s an incredible 23 game opportunity for the Mets to go on a real run up the Wild Card standings. This could be a team which could take full advantage of that opportunity because as Syndergaard said in 2016, the Mets are a second half team.
Wheeler has always been a strong second half pitcher. Same goes for Syndergaard whose career second half ERA is 38 points lower. Jacob deGrom has a better second half WHIP, K/9, and K/BB. In addition to the starters, we should expect to see a much better bullpen with the return of Justin Wilson. In fact, we have so far with the Mets bullpen ERA being 3.86 in July, which is 11th best in the majors and significantly better than the almost impossibly bad 7.53 June bullpen ERA.
There’s also the Amed Rosario factor. Over the past month, he is hitting .342/.365/.468 indicating he may be poised for a second half breakout. Very quietly, he has started to play better defense. In fact, since the All-Star Break, he is actually a 2 DRS. It’s a small sample size for sure, but it’s a positive development.
When you also consider how Michael Conforto and Robinson Cano are better hitters in the second half, you see a glimmer of hope. Speaking of Cano, with him and Edwin Diaz, you have to believe their second halves have to be better than their first.
Is this enough for the Mets to go out and buy? No, not even close. According to Fangraphs, the Mets postseason odds stand at 7.6 percent. Those are nearly insurmountable odds. However, that does not mean the Mets should go selling their players for little to no return when the schedule does set up favorably for them.
In the end, this is really about Wheeler. If he was healthy, the Mets could have received a significant return for him. If his IL stint changes things, it would behoove the Mets to offer him a qualifying offer at the end of the season and just let things ride with this team. After all, there is still a chance.
The Mets had a two game set against the Twins as they continued their nine game road trip where they hoped to possibly bring themselves back into the Wild Card race:
1. Amed Rosario is playing the best baseball of his MLB career. Not only has he been red hot in July, but he has also played to a 2 DRS at short since the All Star Break. It’s a small sample size for sure, but it’s all a very encouraging sign.
2. Another good sign from the middle infield is Robinson Cano hitting again. His July numbers are reminiscent of the Cano of old, and like we saw on Tuesday, even when he’s not hitting, he can still drive in a run with an out.
3. Michael Conforto seems to have shaken off the effects of his concussion earlier in the year. In addition to his hitting like Conforto again, he made a terrific play in center field to rob Nelson Cruz of an extra base hit.
4. People calling Conforto overrated or a bust absolutely know nothing about baseball. It should be noted before his concussion, Conforto was hitting ..271/.406/.521 and in the 39 games after leading into the break he hit .217/.309/.420. We should be highlighting with Jason Bay and Ryan Church the Mets have a putrid history of dealing with players with concussions and not how a player struggles after suffering one.
5. Steven Matz‘s final line looked much better than how he pitched. He was hit hard by the Twins, and he was really lucky to allow just two earned over four. Still, it’s a positive step from where he was a month ago, so the hope is he can build off of it. Note, the use of the word hope and not expect.
6. Like Matz, Edwin Diaz has been hit really hard of late, and he is escaping trouble. While he converted that save on Tuesday, that was far too much of a high wire act, and it’s questionable how long the Mets can hang with these 20+ pitch innings and his walking the tightrope.
7. Even with Diaz allowing lasers, the bullpen has been MUCH better of late. After a 7.53 bullpen ERA in June, the team has a 3.78 July bullpen ERA which is tied for 10th best in the majors. This is partially the result of the Mets leaning on Seth Lugo perhaps more than they should and the return of Justin Wilson from the IL.
8. It looks like Ricky Bones helped fixed Jeurys Familia. He had two big and important appearances. We also saw him throwing that 99 MPH sinker again. Maybe this was all just mechanical with him, and that may or may not have been attributable to the shoulder issues. In any event, Familia finally looks like he is back on track.
9. We only get small snapshots of teams in Interleague Play, especially in two game sets, but it’s surprising to see this Twins team being atop the AL Central. Is this the result of the AL depth being that bad, or was this just a bad series? In any event, you take a two game sweep against a good team.
10. That six run inning against the Twins was huge. It took what could have been a tightrope walk with a bullpen leaned on heavily a bit of late, and it allowed the Mets to go to Chris Mazza to eat up two innings. That is a huge development which cannot be undersold.
11. While Dominic Smith hit the go-ahead pinch hit three run homer, it was Pete Alonso‘s 474 foot blast anyone could talk about. Certainly, that’s all Steve Gelbs wanted to talk about with Smith in the postgame. That and his striking out against a position player. To that end, why does everyone find Gelbs so charming? I don’t get it.
12. Gary Discarcina not sending Rosario to go try to get that inside-the-park homer was no fun at all.
13. It is really surprising the Mets would catch Wilson Ramos in a day game after a night game given his injury history and the fact the Mets were about to get on a flight to go to San Francisco after the game. You have to wonder how much the wear and tear here will linger.
14. Mets need to watch their usage of Lugo. As the pressure has ratcheted up a bit, they keep going to the whip there. When they did that with Robert Gsellman earlier in the year, they lost him. Really, at some point, the Mets need to learn this lesson before they lose a key piece.
15. Right now, you should feel good about the Mets. Whether we should feel good a week from now will depend on how they play.
16. With a 0.2 WAR, Wilmer Font was the best performing player Brodie Van Wagenen obtained via trade, and he was designated for assignment and traded to the Blue Jays for cash considerations. This is both hilarious and a fine example of how completely inept Van Wagenen has been as the Mets General Manager.
17. Mets fans seem to want to defend the team on designating Travis d’Arnaud for assignment much like how they defend the team’s decisions on Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Hansel Robles, Collin McHugh, and others. Really, at what point do fans stop defending the team and just start asking why the Jeff Wilpon led team continues to make poor assessments and decisions like these?
18. Zack Wheeler getting hurt pretty much means the Mets need to hold onto him and offer him a qualifying offer because it’s doubtful the Mets are going to get a return commensurate with the comp pick they would receive if Wheeler rejected the offer and signed elsewhere.
19. People need to stop making luxury tax threshold excuses for the Mets for their building a team in 2020. Remember, that includes $15 million of David Wright‘s contract which is covered by insurance and has been settled by the Mets. Another $29.5 million is from Yoenis Cespedes‘ who has part of his contract covered by insurance. Finally, $12 million of Jacob deGrom‘s $25 million is deferred. The Mets can and should go over the luxury tax threshold next year if they really want to compete.
20. Now that this series is over, the Mets play 20 straight games against teams with a losing record. After that, they have three against the Phillies, who currently hold the second Wild Card spot. If you have hopes the Mets can make a run, there it is.
On July 29, 2015, word spread like wild fire through Citi Field. The New York Mets had executed a trade which could help the team make the postseason and possibly win their first World Series in nearly 30 years. Wilmer Flores was in tears, and Carlos Gomez was packing for his flight to New York while Zack Wheeler continued his rehab from Tommy John surgery.
As soon as the game was over, we discovered the trade was nixed because Gomez apparently had a hip issue. While fans were angry over the mayhem which ensued from another PR disaster from the Mets organization, Wheeler was relieved. In fact, Wheeler would pick up the phone to call Sandy Alderson to tell him that he wanted to remain a part of the Mets organization.
Fast forward four years, and Wheeler is once again on the trade block. Unlike 2015, there is no keeping him around for him to remain a part of the Mets going forward. He is going to be a free agent after the season is over, and based upon the Mets payroll and willingness to spend, it would seem like this is definitively his last season in Queens. Given that fact, a Mets team with the second worst record in the National League needs to trade him to recoup what they can to at least revamp the team for 2020 and beyond.
The plans to trade him were dealt a huge blow when Wheeler landed on the Injured List.
Initially, the Mets characterized it as shoulder fatigue or a dead arm. In those cases, you just need a brief rest, and you should be fine. The Mets downplaying it took an interesting twist when Wheeler got to talk about it. He made things sound much worse calling it an impingement and saying the MRI was “pretty much clean.”
He also backtracked a bit on the Mets statements Wheeler should be ready to go as soon as his IL stint is over saying he isn’t sure when he can return. Although, he did say he wants to be back on the mound as soon as possible.
With Wheeler’s ill timed IL stint, there is now a question if the Mets could get a sufficient enough return to move him. Despite what some will tell you, it would be absolutely worth giving him a qualifying offer. If he rejects it, and he should, the Mets could get a decent comp pick in what should be a loaded draft. All told, this means the Mets may not be in a position to trade him for a lower return because of this IL stint.
As a result, it means medicals may once again prevent Wheeler from being traded away from the Mets. This makes Wheeler the man nearly impossible for the Mets to trade. If he is offered the qualifying offer, and he accepts, we should see another year of Wheeler because, again, he is the man the Mets are incapable of trading.
All jokes aside, Wheeler is a good pitcher who still has potential. We also know he is a very good second half pitcher having a better second half ERA than Jacob deGrom last year. With this second half schedule and the deep draft upcoming, maybe it’s not the worst thing in the world to keep Wheeler. Of course, that is only coming from it from a perspective of the anticipated return possibly being diminished now.
Last night, Travis d’Arnaud had the best game of his career. As noted by Mathew Brownstein of MMO, d’Arnaud became the fourth catcher since 1970 to homer three times and reach base safely five times in a game. His three home run game would culminate with a three run game winning homer off of Aroldis Chapman to give the Rays a 5-4 win over the New York Yankees:
THE TRAVIS d'ARNAUD GAME. pic.twitter.com/k24AVWKJ8f
— MLB (@MLB) July 16, 2019
Like anytime we see a former Met excel in a new place, we see people say any number of things. One of the prevailing things we see is this would never have happened with the Mets. It’s what we heard with Justin Turner even though he fixed his launch angle and had a big finish to the 2013 season before the Mets non-tendered him. We hear it with Hansel Robles despite his having flashes of brilliance with the Mets only to see him wilt under being over and inconsistently worked.
The basis for applying that narrative to d’Arnaud was how terrible he was with the Mets this year. Yes, he was absolutely terrible. In his 10 games with the Mets, he was 2-for-23 (.087), and in his last game with the team, he had just about as bad a game as you will ever see from a catcher. It was mortifying to watch, and the Mets responded to it by designating him for assignment.
Of course, the reasons for his struggles needs closer examination. First and foremost, d’Arnaud was a year removed from Tommy John surgery. As we have seen with position players, there is no real book for when a player can actually return from it. Those we have seen return in less than a year have struggled.
T.J. Rivera couldn’t get it back together after surgery in September 2017. He would be released, and he is now attempting his comeback with the Long Island Ducks. Didi Gregorius has struggled since returning from his own surgery hitting just .252/.274/.388 with the Yankees.
With respect to d’Arnaud, he had two rehab games after getting a late start to Spring Training. That’s right. After a major surgery on his elbow, the Mets gave him just two rehab games. They then rushed him up to the majors despite the Mets starting the season 5-2 and only needing their back-up catcher twice in that span.
After d’Arnaud was rushed back, he would start just five times in over a three week span. In that time frame, the Mets would play 18 games. There is absolutely no reason why d’Arnaud was rushed back to be a back-up when Tomas Nido could have handled those duties well. There is even less of a reason when you consider d’Arnaud NEEDED those games to rehab from his surgery and get back up to game speed after playing all of four games since the start of the 2018 season.
What d’Arnaud needed from the Mets, or really any team, was a legitimate opportunity to get sufficient playing time to get back up to speed. After a P.J. Conlon like stop in Los Angeles, d’Arnaud has gotten that in Tampa Bay. In 39 games for the Rays, he is hitting .282/.342/.542 with seven doubles, nine homers, and 26 RBI. For all those hysterically focused on his throwing arm, he has thrown out 33 percent of base stealers, which is above league average.
Before people start with the he could have never done this with the Mets talk, focus back on his career. In 2015, he played 67 games hitting .268/.340/.485 with 14 doubles, a triple, 12 homers, and 41 RBI. From 2015 to 2017, he was the 10th best catcher in all of baseball with a 6.3 fWAR, and he ranked 11th with a 98 wRC+. His 68.3 dWAR (as rated by Fangraphs) ranked ninth over that timeframe.
So, with the Mets, d’Arnaud was a top 10 catcher in the game. That gets lost because he was never quite what he was advertised to be. He also didn’t build off of that 2015 season like we all hoped. He was also injury prone. Overall, he was as frustrating a player as you could have experienced. However, that does not mean he was bad and never was going to succeed with the Mets. In fact, we did see him succeed with the Mets.
Like many before him, d’Arnaud’s success isn’t because he needed a change of scenery. No, this is because his rehab was mishandled, the Mets overreacted to one bad game, and because the team did not sufficiently self scout their players. If given an opportunity, and with Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard no longer wanting to throw to Wilson Ramos there was one coming, d’Arnaud absolutely would have performed well for the Mets. If you want any proof of that just consider the fact he had already performed well in his Mets career.