Jacob deGrom
If in 2019, Jacob deGrom spoke with reporters and said he wasn’t signing an extension but was instead testing the free agent market, New York Mets fan would’ve been in a panic.
The Wilpons never could’ve afforded a bidding war for deGrom. For that matter, they probably had zero interest in one. In all likelihood, it would’ve been the Jose Reyes to the Miami Marlins all over again.
Put another way, deGrom would’ve been gone without an offer, and the Mets would be playing media games. No Mets fan could’ve handled that.
However, now, deGrom announces he’s opting out, and fans are wondering just how much more the Mets will give him. There’s just an implicit trust Steve Cohen and the organization will not let deGrom leave. Certainly, not over money.
After all, we saw the Mets give Max Scherzer $43 million per year to join the rotation despite his being 37. We saw Cohen shrug off the Cohen Tax and announce he’s going over it.
Now, this isn’t to say deGrom returning is a lock. Weird things happen. For that matter, the opt out isn’t an absolute certainty. There’s a lot that can happen during the 2022 season.
What we know is Cohen has the money. We also know deGrom has repeatedly said he wants the chance to spend his entire career with the Mets. Both have the will to make deGrom a lifetime Met.
Because this isn’t the Wilpons, we can have faith it will happen. Because we’ve seen the lengths Cohen is willing to go this offseason, we can trust it will happen.
In many ways, this is the best part of Cohen buying the Mets from the Wilpons. We can believe and trust it will happen.
The New York Mets were the first Major League team to swoop in and take advantage of the Oakland Athletics tear down by obtaining Chris Bassitt for J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller. It was a very strong move for the Mets with Bassitt being a terrific fit for the Mets rotation.
What is interesting with Bassitt is just how overlooked he is. Since 2018, he has a 3.23 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and a 129 ERA+. His ERA is 17th best in the majors over that time frame. His 4.37 FIP ranks 43rd. His 3.22 K/BB ranks 56th. His 32.78% hard hit rate is good for 30th in the majors.
Going to Baseball Savant, Bassitt is among the best in the majors in limiting hard contact despite not having elite velocity or spin. As noted by Owen McGrattan of Fangraphs, Bassitt does this by how he mixes up his pitches as well as his release points. The overall result is his taking average stuff and having it play as a top of the rotation type of pitcher.
While that may sound a bit incredulous by the aforementioned numbers, keep in mind there are 30 teams in the majors. If you are in the top 60 in any category, you’re pitching at the level of a 1-2 starter. That’s where Bassitt has been. He’s pitching like a number two starter in terms of results. We can dicker about his stuff and natural ability, but the end result is Bassitt pitches like a two starter.
Of course, with the Mets, he’s nowhere near that. He’s a very large step behind Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer because the vast majority of starting pitchers are. There’s not shame in that whatsoever. When healthy, you can argue Carlos Carrasco is one of the best pitchers in baseball. After all, Carrasco was coming off a 153 ERA+ before he was traded to the Mets.
That’s just the thing., Carrasco had an injury riddled season. In each of the last two seasons, deGrom has been nicked up. Taijuan Walker has a lengthy injury history. Scherzer has had good health in his career, but he is also 37. Looking at the Mets rotation, it is both deep and questionable in terms of the ability to get 30 starts from everyone.
It is one thing to have Tylor Megill and David Peterson ready to step into the rotation. That is admirable depth, and it’s all the more admirable with Trevor Williams and Jordan Yamamoto in the mix. However, those are back end of the rotation type of guys. They are not pitchers who can reasonably replicate a top of the rotation starter.
That’s what makes Bassitt so important. By performance, he’s a two starter. However, in this rotation, he’s a number three, and you could argue he’s the fourth starter. When and if an injury occurs, the need to replace a top of the rotation isn’t that much of a concern because the middle to back end of the rotation pitchers on this team are really top to middle pitchers.
The Bassitt acquisition makes this rotation even deeper than it was, and arguably, it makes the Mets rotation the deepest in baseball. When all five of these starters are pitching on the top of their game, something that Jeremy Hefner has helped them do, there is no rotation better in baseball. That’s just how much Bassitt means to this team.
Sometimes, rule changes initially made by baseball are met with immediate disdain, and the concerns about these rule changes are largely proven false. The best example of this has been the divisional and wild card eras. These changes actually proved beneficial for the game.
Then, there are changes where it seemed like a great idea, but it hurt the game. A classic example there is the automatic walk. Sure, we don’t notice it anymore, but with the loss of the automatic walk we lost the anything can happen at anytime moment in the game. The random wild pitch or batter swinging at a ball just out of the zone has forever been eliminated
Remember, what makes baseball truly great is that every pitch means so much and that in any moment anything can happen you have never before seen. With the automatic walk, that was gone forever. That’s just what Rob Manfred has sought to do as the commissioner. He is looking to take away what makes baseball great.
Manfred keeps pushing his agenda to try to change the game while failing to do what actually needs to be done to grow the game. In the end, we are getting some many rule changes, perhaps more than at any other point in Major League history, forever changing the game and making it almost a new sport:
- Automatic Walks
- Elimination of LOOGYs
- Universal DH
- Pitch Clock
- Bigger Bases
- Expanded Postseason
Beyond that, Manfred wants the ability to implement more rule changes in 2023 and beyond with a 45 day notice to the players. You can only imagine what flat out dumb ideas Manfred will come up with to further ruin the game.
The sad part is this does nothing to actually accomplish the stated goal of increasing offense. It’s not like eliminating the shift or adding a universal DH is going to make Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer suddenly forget how to pitch. It doesn’t work that way, and in the end, all MLB is accomplishing is maybe adding an extra 1-2 runs per week . . . if that.
That’s the problem. As we see with the universal DH, it accomplishes nothing to actually increase the offense. Rather, what it does is eliminate the strategical aspect of the game. That is the part of the game which keeps fans engaged during the time between pitches. That’s the part that makes baseball interesting. That is what makes baseball great.
The sad part is MLB is undergoing all of these radical changes which have no impact while ignoring baseball’s real and very fixable problems. All MLB needed to do was to lift lockout restrictions, and they needed to be better at promoting the game through social media to help catch the attention of the younger fans they covet. They really, really suck at social media.
That should come as no surprise because the people in charge think the best way to grow the game is to fundamentally change it, piss off their core diehard fans, and to institute a lockout leading to the cancellation of games. At some point, we just have to ask ourselves what are we even doing anymore?
With the addition of Max Scherzer, it would appear the New York Mets rotation is set. After all, they already have Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker returning. They also have two interesting young pitchers in Tylor Megill and David Peterson, who should be given every opportunity to battle for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Looking at Megill first, he was a revelation when he was called up to the majors. Through his first seven starts, he was 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA while walking 11 and striking out 39 over 35.1 innings. For some, he was reminiscent of deGrom, and you could argue it was more like John Maine in 2006. Whatever the case, he pitched well in what was then a pennant race.
After those seven starts, Megill tapered off as he reached innings he never reached in his career. Over his final 11 starts, Megill was 3-6 with a 6.13 ERA while averaging just under 5.0 innings per start. On the bright side, his control remained strong with 16 walks and 60 strikeouts over 54.1 innings. When you see him, there is something very promising there, and it’s incumbent on the Mets to best figure out how to allocate his innings to have him ready for September and October.
Peterson was a different story. He followed a promising albeit statistically troubling rookie season during the pandemic with a poor and injury shortened second year. It’s difficult to know when the oblique began to start bothering him and impacting his performance, but Peterson followed a season with a 4.52 FIP with a 4.78. We would see his 125 ERA+ fall more in line with the FIP dropping to a very poor 73 in 2021. While the strikeouts went up, the walks remained high.
With these two, Peterson has the better pedigree as he’s a former first round pick. However, Megill has better recent success. All told, they are both still a bit raw for the Major League level. You can certainly justify giving one or both of them a spot in the rotation. The better option would be to keep them both in Triple-A to allow them to further battle it out and get ready for when the Mets staff has an inevitable injury.
Keep in mind, the Mets needed 19 starting pitchers last season. Of course, part of that was using pitchers like Aaron Loup and Miguel Castro as openers, but the point remains they needed that many starters. Marcus Stroman was their only starter to make at least 30 starts, and he signed with the Chicago Cubs last season. What the Mets need more than anything right now is pitching depth, and with their having a lack of near Major League ready starters in the upper levels of the minors, they need to manufacture that depth.
With that in mind, the Mets need to sign another starter whenever this lockout ends. Keep in mind, future Hall of Famers Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw are still available. There are other interesting stopgap options as well, and of course, there is also Trevor Williams, who the Mets added at the trade deadline last year.
Whatever the case, the Mets have four very solid starting pitching options if they’re healthy. In fact, when they’re healthy, they’re the top four in the majors. That’s the key. They have to be healthy, and the Mets have to plan for the event they won’t be. That is exactly why Megill and Peterson should be positioned to start the year in Triple-A whenever they permit this 2022 season to begin.
Babe Ruth is widely considered the greatest baseball player who ever lived. In his era, he would out-homer entire teams. When he hit 60 homers in 1927, he passed the single season home run mark. Of course, he was beating his own mark, a feat he would accomplish on a number of occasions.
By the way, Ruth was also an accomplished pitcher. He had a career 122 ERA+, and he once held the record for consecutive scoreless innings in the World Series. No one in the history of baseball would dominate the sport in the way he did.
Fast-forward a century later, and many people scoff at the notion Ruth is the greatest player in Major League history. Their argument is Ruth never faced the type of pitching we see in the modern game. Assuredly, Jacob deGrom and his stuff would make Walter Johnson look like a Four-A pitcher . . . at best.
Of course, part of that misses the point. A century ago, deGrom would never make it to the Major Leagues. Remember, deGrom would undergo Tommy John surgery in 2010. We wouldn’t see Tommy John undergo that surgery until 39 years after Ruth played his last game. To put it further in perspective, medicine was so far behind where it was now that penicillin wasn’t discovered by Alexander Fleming until Ruth was in his 15th Major League season.
If you were to put modern day pitchers back in the game a century ago, they couldn’t compete, or better yet, they wouldn’t be anywhere near the pitchers they are now. There aren’t the modern training techniques or training. There isn’t the focus on changing baseballs as frequently as they do now.
In fact, it was routine until 1920 that one baseball would be used per game. As a result, you would get dirty, heavy, and hard to pick up on baseballs. While that would suppress pitch velocity, it would also reduce exit velocity. It wasn’t until Ray Chapman‘s death, that things would change.
Aside from that, while it is true Ruth probably never saw a pitcher like Noah Syndergaard‘s fastball or slider, pitches were routinely scuffed, and pitchers were permitted to use the spit ball (and likely used many other substances). Fact is, every time Ruth stepped to the plate, he was effectively facing Mike Scott on the mound. Also, keep in mind, someone like Johnson or Smoky Joe Wood was throwing their fastballs in the lower 90s.
Another consideration is during Ruth’s playing days, he routinely used bats which weighted as much as 54 ounces. The modern day bat weighs around 33 – 36 ounces. Ruth was hitting the ball when it was likely mostly thrown in the 70s and 80s. Keep in mind, he was hitting the ball out of ballparks whose fences were typically deeper
Even if we were to assume Ruth could not keep up with the current velocity, he could drop 15 ounces on his bat and be much better positioned to catch up to that velocity. It should also be noted Ruth would be using a significantly better quality bat than he was using a century ago.
That’s exactly the point. If you put Ruth into baseball a century later, he would have every advantage the modern day player has. If you put the modern day player in baseball a century ago, they may not be able to even step on the field. Overall, Ruth dominated his era like no one ever has or ever will. If you gave him all of the modern advantages, or you took them away from the modern player, he would absolutely destroy those pitchers because Ruth was that great.
Heading into the 2020 season, Jacob deGrom was definitively the best pitcher on the planet. He was coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards, and he was doing things only Hall of Fame pitchers do. Certainly, the Hall of Fame was on deGrom’s mind as he told us all he wanted to be an inner circle Hall of Famer.
Certainly, deGrom was well on his way to carving a path to the Hall of Fame. After all, he was fifth all-time in ERA+. He was bettering Tom Seaver‘s New York Mets records. He was otherworldly great. Think Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000.
Then, the pandemic struck. The 2020 season was shortened, and deGrom would suffer an injury which would just about end his chances of winning a third straight Cy Young. deGrom would being the 2021 season pitching better than he ever has, which is saying something. However, again injury would strike limiting deGrom to just 15 starts. Despite the injury, he still finished in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting.
However, for deGrom, it isn’t about Cy Youngs. Well, it is in part, but that is just part of the larger picture. Really, when it comes to deGrom’s career, it is about two things: (1) World Series rings; and (2) the Baseball Hall of Fame.
As of this moment, he has a 43.4 WAR with a 40.8 WAR7 and a 42.1 JAWS. The average Hall of Fame pitcher has a 73.0 WAR, 49.8 WAR, and a 61.4 JAWS. That puts the 33 year old deGrom in an interesting position.
Right now, he is 39.6 WAR behind the average Hall of Fame pitcher. For WAR7, he is only 6.4 behind the average Hall of Famer. He is 19.7 behind the average Hall of Famer in terms of JAWS. In some ways, that is actually achievable for deGrom.
Consider from 2018-2019, deGrom AVERAGED an 8.9 WAR (pitching only). If he puts together another two year stretch like that, and as we saw last year, he can, deGrom would have a 61.2 WAR. That puts him within an ear shot of the 73.0 mark. More than that, his peak numbers will be through the roof. He will have a 51.7 WAR7, which would be a giant step above the current standard. His JAWS would then be 56.5, which would be a hair behind the standard.
Keep in mind, narrative matters. As we see with players like Sandy Koufax having an absolutely dominant peak at a higher level than anyone else matters. That would certainly describe deGrom if he can put 2-3 great seasons under his belt.
On that front, this could be where Max Scherzer helps him. Scherzer was a pitcher who did not look like a Hall of Famer until he turned 28. From that point forward, he put together a stretch of nine consecutive Cy Young and Hall of Fame caliber seasons. If there is anyone who knows what a pitcher needs to do from their mid-30s to stay dominant towards their 40s, it is Scherzer.
With deGrom having a true peer in Scherzer in the rotation, not only will deGrom have a better opportunity to win a World Series, but he will also increase his Hall of Fame chances. Whenever the lockout ends, deGrom’s path towards the Hall of Fame and a World Series title will begin anew.
While Buck Showalter may not have been the right fit for the New York Mets job, this job was the perfect fit for him. This is a job where Showalter can cement his legacy, and depending on how everything goes, it’s possible he has a shot at the Hall of Fame.
As we have seen with the media coverage, Showalter has been well respected in the game. That goes to every media person, and we have seen former players Zack Britton, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Teixeira speak highly of him. There are reasons why that is the case.
Showalter has his strengths. He is a good communicator. He develops players. He knows this game inside and out. No, he doesn’t know analytics well, and he has been adverse to them, but he’s a lifer who knows the game.
The biggest knock on Showalter is teams have won after he has left. The 1996 Yankees. The 2001 Diamondbacks. Both World Series championships came after Showalter has been fired. As we saw with the Britton issue in the ALDS, there are a number of reasons why Showalter hasn’t won a ring..
However, the Mets now present that opportunity. He has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer atop the rotation, that’s even better than Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling (who Showalter didn’t win with). As we have seen before the lockout, Steve Cohen is going to do everything he can to win the 2022 World Series. He is spending like we haven’t seen a team spend in ages, perhaps ever.
This will be a Mets team built to win in the postseason. There is the vaunted top of the rotation. Francisco Lindor in year two. Brandon Nimmo moving to right field where he will thrive along Starling Marte. Pete Alonso hitting tape measure shots. The pieces are there, and there will be more to come. The challenge for Showalter will be to let his best players win instead of going to Jack McDowell or Ubaldo Jimenez.
If he is now truly receptive to analytics for the first time in his career, wonderful things can and will happen. His reward will be completely changing the narrative on his career. Now, Showalter will be the manager who builds winners and can take them over the top.
He will then have at least three Manager of the Year awards. By winning a World Series, he would join Bobby Cox, Jim Leyland, and Tony La Russa as the only managers to win three awards and a World Series. Leyland is the only one not in the Hall of Fame. If Showalter were to win two World Series, he would join Sparky Anderson, Tommy Lasorda, Joe Torre, and La Russa as the only managers to win multiple Manager of the Year awards and multiple World Series.
The Mets will put Showalter in a position to win those World Series titles. That will come in the form of both players and with information. Everything will be there for Showalter. If he is willing to grow as a manager and accept the more collaborative role, he will get that elusive ring, and quite possibly, he will be enshrined in Cooperstown.
If you want to know the importance of what the Max Scherzer signing with the New York Mets is, look to the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s really the last time we saw this.
The Diamondbacks had added Curt Schilling at the 2000 trade deadline, but that team couldn’t stay in the race. That wouldn’t be an issue the following season.
Schilling combined with Randy Johnson to be one of the most lethal, if not the most lethal co-aces atop a rotation. The result was a 92 win season.
It’s difficult to argue they didn’t do it themselves. Schilling and Johnson both pitched over 249 innings and had an ERA under 3.00. The rest of the rotation struggled, and the bullpen wasn’t great aside from Byung-Hun Kim and Bret Prinz.
Offensively, that was one of the worst teams you could imagine for a World Series winner. Consider, Luis Gonzalez had a phenomenal year hitting 57 homers, and they still only had a team 97 wRC+.
That’s what having two of the best pitchers in all of baseball means. Their innings and greatness masks so much. Case-in-point, that team was 52-18 when Schilling and Johnson pitched, and they were 40-52 when they didn’t.
It was a feat replicated in the postseason. The Diamondbacks were 9-2 when they pitched, and they were 2-4 when they didn’t.
Good pitching beats good hitting. Great pitching wins World Series nearly single-handedly. That was the case in 2001, and it may be the case again in 2022.
With all due respect to Schilling and Johnson, if Jacob deGrom is healthy, deGrom and Scherzer are a more formidable duo.
Consider this. Schilling’s best ERA+ was 159, and his best FIP was 2.40. deGrom has bested that ERA+ three times and the FIP twice. Scherzer had a better ERA+ three times.
Johnson was on a different level than Schilling with a career best 197 ERA+ and 2.04 FIP. deGrom bettered than ERA+ and FIP once, and it would’ve been twice if he was healthy in 2021.
In addition to deGrom and Scherzer being the better duo, the 2022 Mets promise to be a better roster. This team is not done with their offseason, and they still have players like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo.
With deGrom and Scherzer, this Mets team is already a World Series contender. We need look no further than the 2001 Diamondbacks as proof of that. How great they will be will be determined by the rest of this offseason.