J.D. Davis
The fun part about MLB debuts is you can never quite be sure how it will go. Will they be the player they were in the minors? Will the stage be too big for them? Or, will they rise to the occasion and take their game to the next level?
On the last one, we have seen Jacob deGrom and Seth Lugo do that. They’re now the best starter and reliever in the game. That should get you all the more excited seeing David Peterson tonight.
Peterson raised his velocity from the high 80s to low 90s to 94 MPH. He showed slightly better control. He rose to the big moments.
Case in point was the third inning. Former Met Kevin Plawecki hit a routine fly ball J.D. Davis misplayed into a double. After an ensuing walk to Andrew Benintendi, Brandon Nimmo sprinted and dropped a deep Jose Peraza fly ball to load the bases.
Peterson responded by striking out J.D. Martinez. Then, he got the ground ball he needed. It was an odd play where Robinson Cano was ruled to have caught a ball he seemed to short hop. The second base umpire had a delayed out call leading to Benintendi taking off for third.
Benintendi was finally tracked down in the run down as Plawecki scored. At that time, it was 3-1 Mets.
The Mets got that lead with a three run third. The first run game on a Cano RBI double. After that double, Nimmo was walked to load the bases. Amed Rosario then delivered a bloop single scoring two.
With the lead, Peterson was pitching well despite not getting much help from his defense. As mentioned above, Davis misplayed a ball, and we’d see Jeff McNeil throw a ball away. On McNeil, his arm may be something which needs monitoring because his throws to first haven’t been good. Really, the only standout defensive play came from Michael Conforto.
Michael Conforto, wow pic.twitter.com/yuviWa9DOp
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) July 29, 2020
After that odd third inning run, Peterson starting putting up a string of zeros. That I included his inducing an inning ending double play to end the fifth.
Peterson hit the end of the line in the sixth. Rafael Devers and Kevin Pillar hit a pair of doubles pulling the Red Sox to within 5-2. Drew Smith came in for Peterson, and he had another impressive performance striking out Mitch Moreland to end the inning.
While Smith was impressive, the story was Peterson. He was much better than you could’ve hoped. With the increased velocity and better control, he suddenly changed what could be his ceiling. You could not ask for a better debut than this.
A night @_David_Peterson will never forget. #LGM pic.twitter.com/NDidO4Gbg2
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 29, 2020
Justin Wilson and Dellin Betances each put together scoreless innings out of the bullpen. In a three run eighth, Nimmo and McNeil hit a pair of RBI doubles to increase the Mets lead to 8-2.
On that note, Cano started that rally. TGIF was a great night for him where he seemed rejuvenated. Overall, he was 2-for-3 with a run, double, and an RBI.
In fact, for the second straight night, the Mets offense was clicking. Overall, Yoenis Cespedes and Pete Alonso were the only two Mets without a hit. However, both would reach base safely with Alonso drawing a walk and Cespedes getting hit by a pitch.
Overall, if you’re looking for something to lament, Hunter Strickland struggled again allowing a run in the ninth. Still, there’s no need to focus on that with the Mets beating up on the Red Sox again and getting to over .500.
Today would normally be a good day. With Peterson’s great debut, it was a phenomenal day.
Game Notes: Despite entering the game as the team’s RBI leader and homering yesterday, Dominic Smith was benched again. In response to the Marlins COVID19 outbreak, they’re being shut down for the week. The Phillies series against the Yankees has been canceled, and the Yankees will play the Orioles instead.
Baseball is finally back, and the Mets offense looked like they haven’t played a game since September losing 2/3 to the Braves.
1. Jacob deGrom is still the best pitcher on that planet.
2. And Seth Lugo is still the best reliever.
3. Yoenis Cespedes homering on Opening Day to help give the Mets a 1-0 victory may be the highlight of the season . . . especially if the backend of the rotation will be this bad.
4. Mets two best hitters so far this year are Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto, and it’s quite likely it stays that way.
5. With the exception of the Braves offense going bezerk yesterday, it appears the juiced ball is gone. That’s going to be a problem for some of the Mets hitters who relied upon it.
6. If J.D. Davis is in the lineup for his bat, he has to hit, or at least have more hits than Jake Marisnick does in part time duty.
7. That goes double when his defense is that bad. It’s already turned a single into a double and an out into a game altering RBI double.
8. No, you don’t want to overreact to a slow start, but remember a three game set is the equivalent of eight games. That’s over a week of the season.
9. On that note, Porcello was bad last year, and Davis was extraordinarily lucky with his hitting a juiced ball. These two are more than worth monitoring and having a short leash.
10. As for Porcello, he’s locked in the rotation because the Mets have no starting pitching depth. That, and there’s no way the Mets bench him and his prorated $10 million.
11. One of these days, Corey Oswalt will be given a legitimate opportunity to succeed. Last night, being rushed to warm up and brought into the middle of an inning when he was supposed to be preparing to start on Tuesday isn’t remotely giving him a fair shake.
12. Aside from Oswalt imploding, the Mets bullpen looked really good with Jeurys Familia rediscovering his power sinker.
13. Early on, it looks like Justin Wilson is going to be a reliever Luis Rojas really trusts. With the way he pitched last year, and his first two performances this year, you can’t blame him.
14. One nit to pick with Rojas is he needs some consistency. You can’t let Wilson Ramos run the bases with three catchers but pinch run for Cespedes with two outs and a runner on first. It doesn’t make sense to make wholesale defensive changes and leave Dominic Smith on the bench.
15. On that point, use Tomas Nido or Rene Rivera with Edwin Diaz. For a multitude of reasons, the Diaz/Ramos pairing just is not working.
16. Diaz’s stuff has looked great. However, that was a bad pitch to Marcell Ozuna. He threw five straight pitches to that side of the plate, and the previous day he went there to strike Ozuna out. Ozuna couldn’t have had a better idea what that pitch was going to be even if he was a Houston Astro.
17. That spoiled a GREAT start from Steven Matz who has seemingly taken another step forward from his second half turnaround. That added velocity and improved change makes him a legit number two instead of the one he is on paper.
18. Mets are going nowhere if Marcus Stroman‘s injury is serious.
19. We have seen Travis d’Arnaud and Tyler Flowers miss this series with COVID19 symptoms. Marlins catcher Jorge Alfaro tested positive along with some teammates. It appears with catchers unable to socially distance during games, they are the players facing the brunt of the COVID19 risks.
20. It’s great having baseball back even with the universal DH and extra inning rules bastardizing the game. On the later, with all four extra inning games ending in the 10th, Rob Manfred may really push for that rule to stay. Naturally, the universal DH fans who love gimmicks to produce offense must love that.
Game Recaps
Zack Wheeler desperately wanted to stay with the Mets. Brodie Van Wagenen wasn’t interested, and he went so far as to say what Wheeler signed for with the Phillies didn’t match how the Mets valued him.
Why be magnanimous about a very good pitcher who time and again made it clear he wanted to be a Met? Why avoid giving a starter in your division bulletin board material? Those are questions for another day.
The overarching question is what was Brodie thinking? He really signed Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha instead of Wheeler. In Porcello’s first start, we saw it for the mistake it was.
Porcello wasn’t good, but he wasn’t quite as bad as his final line seemed.
The Braves got to Porcello with two in the first, and he escaped trouble in the second by getting Ronald Acuna to hit into an inning ending double play. If you had any hopes that meant his sinker was working, they’d be quickly dashed.
It began with Jeff McNeil making an error allowing Ozzie Albies to reach safely. Then, with the Mets apparently being deathly afraid of Freddie Freeman (with good reason), Porcello walked him. Then disaster struck.
Marcell Ozuna doubled to put the Braves up 3-1, and Matt Adams walked. At that point, the Mets were still in it. Then, J.D. Davis completely misplayed what was a routine play for a left fielder into a two RBI double for Dansby Swanson.
Doubles By Dansby™️#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/X7oF1bUArA
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 27, 2020
Instead of it being 4-1 with one out, it was 5-1 with no outs and runners on second and third. With that, Porcello’s night was done, and the Mets night was effectively over.
Corey Oswalt was thrust into a relief role instead of preparing for a start against the Red Sox. Again, he was put in a position to fail, and he did. He’d allow inherited runners to score along with a few of his own. On the bright side, he ate four innings saving the pen a bit.
When all was said and done, it was 14-1 Braves with the only Mets run being driven in by ninth place hitter Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo batted ninth because of the left-handed starter Sean Newcomb.
Newcomb was terrible in his own right, but he was bailed out by an overly aggressive Mets lineup. This is the same lineup which was assembled due to their bats while punting defense. They punted defense with a starter with a low strike out rate and is coming off a season where he had the worst ERA in the AL.
You can point a lot of fingers tonight. No matter where you point them, make sure you point them at the GM. This is exactly how he designed the team, and it failed like anyone else could’ve predicted.
Game Notes: Tomas Nido started over Wilson Ramos. He scored on the Nimmo double. Davis is 1-for-10 on the season.
Luis Rojas and the Mets had done nearly everything right, and they were one strike away from going to 2-0 on the season.
Steven Matz was brilliant over six innings allowing just a homer to Adam Duvall. It was only one of the two hits he allowed while he struck out seven.
He got a lead in the fifth on a rally started by the same Michael Conforto we’re all told can’t hit lefties hit a double off Braves left-handed starter Max Fried. Conforto scored on an Amed Rosario RBI triple, and Rosario scored on a Jeff McNeil sacrifice fly.
Jeurys Familia was great out of the bullpen flashing the same power sinker which made him a great closer. Dellin Betances had a rocky debut for the Mets, but it didn’t hurt that Mets for a few reasons.
First, Rojas went to Justin Wilson to face Matt Adams. When Adams singled, it didn’t score a run because in the top of the eighth, Rojas brought in Jake Marisnick for defense. If that’s Brandon Nimmo in center, Adams single goes for extra bases and ties the score. Instead, the Mets got out of the inning with the lead.
Now, there were some questionable decisions. After Wilson Ramos led off the seventh with a single, Rojas didn’t pinch run for him even with the Mets having three catchers. Ramos was stranded at third (even if his speed wasn’t really the reason).
What made that interesting was in the eighth with two outs Rojas did pinch run Eduardo Nunez for Yoenis Cespedes. Nunez would steal second, but he would be stranded there. He was stranded there because in his first MLB at-bat Andres Gimenez.
Gimenez was brought in for defense for Robinson Cano even with Cano due up fourth. It’s not a bad decision, but you do wonder why not Luis Guillorme there when he had a good year last year, especially in those spots.
Despite all that, the Mets had a 2-1 lead in the ninth, and Edwin Diaz was looking great. He got the first two Braves out with ease, and he was 3-2 with Marcell Ozuna before making an okay pitch.
9th inning. 2 outs. Full count.⁰⁰
Take it away Marcell!#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/5porHr9LTW
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 25, 2020
For those defending the pitch, EVERY PITCH OF THE AT-BAT WAS ON THE OUTSIDE CORNER. Ozuna knew exactly the location allowing him the advantage of knowing to go the other way. You go belt high to a batter knowing the location, bad things are going to happen.
In the bottom of the ninth, the Mets had runners on first and second with one out, but neither Nimmo (who batted ninth) nor McNeil could drive in the game winning run.
In the tenth, we saw that ridiculous new rule putting a runner put on second to start the inning. That runner scored immediately when Hunter Strickland allowed an RBI single to Dansby Swanson. Strickland wasn’t good at all. By the time he allowed a RBI double to William Contreras, the Braves fourth string catcher, it was 5-2.
Honestly, when you look at this game, Diaz was not the only player to blow it.
Nimmo and McNeil twice had runners in scoring position in the late innings, and they failed to deliver the needed insurance run. They also failed to capitalize in the bottom of the 10th.
The Mets loaded the bases with no outs against Luke Jackson in his second inning of work. Instead of Cespedes up, it was Nunez, who hit a shallow fly. Dominic Smith pinch hit for Gimenez and hit a sacrifice fly pulling the Mets to within 5-3.
That would be the final score with Ramos, who was not pinch run for, grounding out to end the game. That groundout came on the heels of some interesting (if not questionable) decisions. It came on the heels of a number of blown chances.
In a normal season, a loss like this feels devastating. In a season where a game is equivalent to 2.7 games, it may actually be devastating.
Game Notes: Last year, Diaz had a 13.50 ERA with zero days of rest, and he had a 6.14 ERA pitching to Ramos. J.D. Davis has started the year 0-for-6 with two strikeouts.
The last we saw the Mets Dominic Smith was hitting a walk-off extra inning homer against the Braves. So much has happened since then, including but not limited to a pandemic. About nine months later, the Mets and Braves were back squaring off at Citi Field.
With this matchup it seemed like the Mets picked up where they left off. That was the case with Jacob deGrom who pitched like his Cy Young self.
deGrom began the game just throwing 100 MPH with ease. The Braves just could not put up much of a fight against him. Even when Marcell Ozuna, a good MLB hitter, got up 3-0 in the count, deGrom still dispatched him with ease.
Overall, deGrom was limited to just five innings because it’s the first start after the revamp of the season. He’d allow just one hit and one walk while striking out eight. Of course, with this being deGrom, he had a no decision.
Part of the reason was Mike Soroka started for the Braves. Soroka emerged as a future ace in his rookie year last year. Soroka was good . . . and lucky.
In the first two innings, the Mets got the lead-off hitter on only for the runner to be erased on a double play. Ender Inciarte robbed both J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil of potential RBI extra base hits. There was also a bad McNeil base running gaffe.
While the Mets offense was getting shut down, the combination of deGrom and Seth Lugo was doing the same to the Braves.
Lugo mowed down the Braves in the sixth, but he’d have to come up big in the seventh. Ozuna hit it sharp to left. With a better defender, it might’ve been a single, but the Mets don’t care about defense.
After his one out double, Ozuna took third when Wilson Ramos, who had not caught in a week due to his attending to personal issues, whiffed on a pitch.
The Mets brought the infield in, and we saw one of the most unique plays you’ll ever see. Matt Adams, who was recently released by the Mets, was the Braves DH. He hit a sharp grounder to the right side. McNeil, who flipped from third to second with the shift, fielded the ball and walked it to first for the extremely rare five unassisted at first.
After that unique play, Lugo struck out Austin Riley to get out of the jam. That put Lugo in line for the win in the event the Mets could score at least one run.
Enter Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes was back after double heel surgery and a wild boar attack. He was inserted in the lineup as the first ever DH Mets DH in a game between two NL teams. After a pop out and ground out against Soroka, he faced Chris Martin.
? YOOOOOO! #LGM pic.twitter.com/04dst7PbT9
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 24, 2020
Right there, the Mets were up 1-0 with a homer we honestly would’ve expected from Cespedes years ago. These were the moments he thrived, and at least today, he seemed primed to be that player again.
What’s fascinating is Cespedes became the first ever DH to record a hit, homer, and RBI in a game between two NL teams. Believe it or not, he has now homered in three straight games.
Cespedes' last three games:
May 13, 2018
July 20, 2018
July 24, 2020He homered in all three.
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) July 24, 2020
The Mets pitching, which was excellent, made that 1-0 lead hold up. Justin Wilson worked around a lead-off single in the eighth to pitch a scoreless inning.
Edwin Diaz issued a one out walk to Freddie Freeman in the ninth. In case you had fear this was going to be the same Diaz who imploded all of last year, he’d quash those concerns by striking out Ozuna and Adams on seven pitches to end the game.
The Mets pitching was phenomenal in this win. They combined to shut out the Braves allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out 15. The Braves had no chance today.
When the Mets pitching is at this level, they don’t need much. Last year, they don’t get that run. This year, they have Cespedes. That may be all they need.
Game Notes: The Mets won their first challenge of the season when McNeil was incorrectly ruled out when stretching a single to a double. The play caused Keith Hernandez to quip about the umpire, “Get an eye chart!” Matt Adams made MLB history by being the first DH to have a PA in a game between two NL teams. The Mets wore Black Lives Matter shirts (before the game but did not kneel for the anthem.
Marcus Stroman and Yoenis Cespedes are among the Mets wearing Black Lives Matter shirts during warmups @STR0 @ynscspds pic.twitter.com/sNitMLXBoD
— SNY (@SNYtv) July 24, 2020
Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo wore “Love Thy Neighbor” shirts instead of the Black Lives Matter shirts.
If you’ve been paying attention, Dominic Smith has been great in camp, and Luis Rojas has been talking about how the team needs to find him playing time. This being a conundrum for the Mets is almost comical.
Look, we all get Pete Alonso is the first baseman. Also due to a myriad of factors, Yoenis Cespedes is the DH. That does impact Smith’s playing time opportunities as he should be at first with Alonso at DH, but the Mets aren’t going to just write off Cespedes. It’s a justifiable stance.
That said, if the Mets actually paid attention to the numbers and respective talent levels, the answer as to where Smith should play is painstakingly obvious.
At the moment, the Mets have written in J.D. Davis as the starting left fielder in pen, wrote over it in Sharpee, and then laminated it. If you look at it, this is a mistake.
In 2019, Davis was terrible in left. He was a Major League worst -11 DRS out of any left fielder who played at least 500 innings. His -7 OAA ranked 138th in the Majors. His success rate of 78% was among the worst in baseball as well. It’s by no means hyperbole to suggest he is the worst defensive outfielder in all of baseball.
Now, Smith isn’t great in left by any means. Ideally speaking, he shouldn’t be out there everyday. That said, he’s a significantly better left field option than Davis.
In 2019, Smith was a -3 OAA. He had a 86% success rate. He also had a -2 DRS. Make no mistake here, Smith is not a good left fielder. However, even with his not being a good left fielder, he’s significantly better than Davis with a very comparable arm.
While it seems incredulous to say, Smith in left is a significantly better option than Davis. Of course, we know the Mets eschew defense for offense despite the data standing in direct opposition to that approach.
Last year, Davis had a 136 wRC+ and a 138 OPS+. Smith had a 133 wRC+ and a 134 OPS+. The difference between their offense production last year was negligible.
In total, Smith gives you the same level of offensive production as Davis, and he hit better in the clutch last year. He’s a significantly better defender in left field. Looking at this, the question needs to be asked how in the world are the Mets perplexed over how to get Smith more playing time?
Really, the answer is obvious to anyone who has bothered to check the numbers. It’s more obvious when you look at talent, age, and who gives you the best chance to win.
If the Mets need to figure out what to do with Smith, they should play him everyday in left field. It’s the only rational choice.
Last year, Robinson Cano began the year as the Mets third place hitter, and he’d stay there for a good part of the season. He’d stay there despite many screaming Mickey Callaway needed to remove the washed up second baseman coming off a PED suspension from the middle of the lineup.
Heading into 2020, it seemed like the days of Cano batting third were behind us. At the end of last year, Cano was supplanted by Michael Conforto in the third spot in the lineup, and it stayed that way when Cano returned from the IL.
Couple that with Callaway (and Carlos Beltran gone), the Mets seemed poised to reshape the middle of their lineup without Cano taking a prominent spot. Seeing the lineups in the Yankees series and the comments from Luis Rojas, that will not be the case.
Luis Rojas all but said yesterday that Canó will bat third. That's not to say the situation can't change, but it appears to be the plan. https://t.co/WOaDL1sx62
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) July 19, 2020
Once again, Cano is going to be batting third for the Mets. Apparently, two separate managers looked at Cano and independently determined Cano needs to bat third.
Of course, that’s nonsense. We know that’s not what’s happening here. The truth is the GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, is making this decision.
First off, we know that because that’s how baseball teams now operate. We also know it’s true because we’ve learned Van Wagenen does not respect any boundaries. In fact, despite it being against MLB rules and regulations, he will text game decisions to the clubhouse.
Sources confirms that Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has acted during games, texting to staffers, including to remove Jacob deGrom during that Arizona start earlier this year in which he left early.
It's happened more than once.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) June 25, 2019
As it pertains to filling out the lineup, we’re well past the days of a manager setting the lineup on his own volition. That doesn’t mean he has no input. One famous story was when Terry Francona told the front office if they wanted him to bench Mike Lowell against the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball, they were welcome to tell Lowell themselves (Lowell started that night).
However, that’s Francona, a future Hall of Fame manager with two World Series under his belt.
Callaway was a manager who was on the hot seat before 2019 Opening Day, and he was ducking chairs thrown at him by Van Wagenen. Rojas was the guy the Mets hired only because they fired Carlos Beltran after the Houston Astros sign stealing scandal (only for the Mets to keep J.D. Davis and Jake Marisnick). Neither have the presence or footing in the organization to even think about attempting what Francona did.
In the end, Cano batting third is all on Van Wagenen. He’s placating and supporting his former client. He’s trying to justify moving Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn in the trade to get him.
The Mets can try the smokescreen of saying they’re just trying to get Cano at-bats. On that, we should note, Cano batted third, not leadoff. Cano also came out of both games. He needed at-bats so much, he exited both games early?
No, he batted third because that’s where the Mets, specifically Brodie Van Wagenen, wants him. Maybe the Mets relent now due to the public pressure, but in the end, if Cano bats third look no further than his former agent turned General Manager who gave up a king’s ransom to get him.
The Mets have done their part protecting the confidentiality of their players. We know Brad Brach and Robinson Cano aren’t in camp, but the team will not say why. Thar said, Luis Rojas might’ve given us an indication it’s COVID19 related:
Luis Rojas said the Mets haven't had any baseball-related injuries so far during camp.
— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) July 12, 2020
As is typically the case when a player is going to miss time, the discussion begins on what the Mets should do to replace these players.
Do you move Jeff McNeil to second and put J.D. Davis at third? Do you use Luis Guillorme due to his defense and late offensive surge?
Maybe Andres Gimenez is ready. Is Jed Lowrie going to be able to do anything? Do you go with Eduardo Nunez?
There’s a ton of options available to replace Cano, and it’s an interesting debate.
It’s similar to Brach. Newly signed Jared Hughes is obviously the first man up to replace him. There’s also Paul Sewald, Drew Smith, Stephen Gonsalves, Franklyn Kilome, Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt, and some interesting minor league arms.
If this were a normal 2020 season, we’d debate the correct path, and we’d see the Mets have time to get it wrong, get it wrong again, and hopefully, finally make the correct decision.
However, this is far from a normal season. There is a pandemic which threatens the lives and long-term health of people. We’ve already heard about Freddie Freeman and his struggle with this disease. We’re hearing about Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz still experiencing some issues.
Right now, we don’t know if Brach or Cano have COVID19. To the extent they do have it, we don’t know how much it’s impacting them now, or will affect their health in the future.
The only thing we do know is there’s a pandemic which is affecting people differently. We know this pandemic has no vaccine. Even with precautions, we can’t guarantee players won’t become infected.
With all we know and don’t know with COVID19, at some point we need to pivot from who will replace these infected players to whether there should be baseball in 2020.
Remember, it’s alright to desperately want baseball to return. It’s also alright to believe it’s not safe for these players to play. We’re all human, and there’s no clear cut answer or solution.
In response to pointing out how significantly better the Mets outfield defense would be with Jake Marisnick, many still advocated for J.D. Davis. While the support for Davis is admirable, it’s misplaced.
It’s misplaced because defense matters.
Over the past three seasons, the Mets are the absolute worst defensive team in baseball with a -228 DRS. That leaves them as the only Major League team to crack the -200 mark. Over those three seasons, the Mets have failed to make the postseason.
The same can be said for the eight worst defensive teams over that timeframe. In fact, the Mets are only one of 10 teams to have a negative DRS over this time frame. Of those 10, only one franchise has reached the postseason.
Looking at the best defensive clubs, all of the top five have reached the postseason at least once over the last three seasons. Expanding it further, eight of the 11 best defensive clubs have made the postseason at least once.
There’s a correlation between defense and making the postseason. You could argue it’s not quite causation. However, it should be pointed out better defensive clubs help keep runs off the board which helps their teams win games.
On the Davis/Marisnick point, at a -49 DRS, the Mets only have the 24th worst outfield defense over this three year time frame. From the Mets on down, only one of the seven worst defensive outfields have made it to the postseason.
In fact, over the last three years, there have been 14 teams whose outfields registered a negative DRS. Only two of those teams have made the postseason. None of these 14 teams have won a division title.
Conversely, all of the top eight defensive outfields have made the postseason at least once. Twelve of the top 14 have made the postseason at least once over that time frame.
All-in-all, 13 of the 16 teams with a positive outfield DRS have made at least one postseason. That includes all three World Series winners and all six pennant winners.
Breaking it down, teams who play good defense win games and make the postseason. In an era of launch angle, teams with better defensive outfields perform better and not only make it to the postseason, but also have gone deep in the postseason.
With respect to the Mets, they made the postseason in consecutive seasons. Over 2015-2016, the Mets outfield had a 45 DRS which was the fifth best in the majors.
Their team DRS of 4 wasn’t as good as the outfield DRS, but it was still a net positive.
Looking at the Mets, when they’ve had a good defensive team, they’ve performed well and made the postseason. When they didn’t, they disappointed and mostly finished under .500.
Looking at everything, teams who play good defense win games. They make it to the postseason. In the era of the launch angle, we see a premium on outfield defense.
On that note, the 2020 Mets are already sacrificing defense for offense at catcher, first base, second base, and arguably shortstop. Theyre doing this desire then having a DH this season allowing them to bat Yoenis Cespedes even if he’s not ready to play in the field everyday. Cespedes bat should permit the Mets to play at least one player due to their defense prowess.
That begs the question – With what you see with respect to the importance of defense, especially outfield defense, why would you purposefully opt to go from a very good defensive outfield to a flat out bad one? That goes double when you consider the Mets have more than enough bats.
In the end, the Mets can do what they did the last three years, or they can do what they did in 2015-2016. They can choose to follow the path of well versed analytical teams who not only realize the value of defense, but also win with good defensive clubs. The Mets can be one of those teams if they so choose.
So, before you avow Davis, who was tied for the Major League worst -11 DRS in LF, should play over Marisnick, you need to explain why defense doesn’t matter. Considering the correlation and trends we’ve seen, it’s going to be an exceedingly tough task and that’s before you consider the 2020 Mets starting staff will pitch to more contact than the preceding years.
Really, when you break it down, defense matters, and if the Mets want to win, they’re going to need to put a good defensive team out there. Right now, their projected Opening Day lineup is not going to be one. Fortunately for the Mets, there are players on the roster who can completely transform this team defensively. The only thing preventing the Mets from playing those players is the Mets themselves.
Each and every prospective lineup people put out for the 2020 Mets has J.D. Davis in left field. This is despite the fact Davis can’t play the position at all.
Last year, he had a -11 DRS and a -7 OAA. Both of those numbers are unplayable in left field. While you can argue he’s been working hard this offseason to improve, his 26.3 ft/sec sprint speed is just too slow to expect him from being anything that a below average outfielder.
But it’s not just Davis in left, it’s what it does to the entire defensive alignment. Davis in left then puts Brandon Nimmo in center as opposed to a corner OF position where he is much better suited.
In Nimmo’s career, he’s a -9 DRS in center, and he’s a 1 DRS in the corners. He’s a positive defender in left with a 3 DRS. Put another way, Nimmo belongs in left.
Historically, the Mets don’t care. They just want the bats out there despite that plan continuously failing. Consider this, since 2017, the Mets have had the absolute worst defense in Major League Baseball, and it’s not even close.
With each of these seasons, the Mets underachieved. That includes last year. With better defense, that could’ve potentially been a better performing team. Despite that, the Mets look at defense like it’s a novelty which you roll out there in the late innings failing to realize you may not get that lead because of those catchable balls in left went for base hits, and those singles or outs became extra base hits.
That’s part of the reason why Jake Marisnick needs to be in center flanked by Nimmo and Michael Conforto in 2020. With Marisnick posting elite defensive metrics year-in and year-out, he makes his team’s defense significantly better. He’d do that with the Mets as well.
Any concerns about his offense is a red herring, and it falls into the same trap the Mets always fall.
Consider this, Davis had a 138 OPS+ to Marisnick’s 80, and yet, Marisnick still had a higher WAR last year. The reason is because DEFENSE MATTERS.
Aside from the DH, there is far more than pitching and 2-4 PAs per game. You have to go out there and field your position. The position you play has an impact on defensive alignment. By playing Marisnick, you’re getting the most out of Nimmo and Conforto. You’re also getting the most out of your pitching by ensuring outs are outs and maybe stealing a few outs here and there.
The Mets also have plenty of offense across the diamond. Moreover, they now have a DH where they can stick the pure offensive player. With that being the case, there’s even less of an excuse to sacrifice defense for offense.
That goes double when you consider Marisnick is the overall more productive player than Davis. That’s an important point to consider when Marisnick was better than Davis when Davis was at his best.
In the end, the Mets need to remember defense matters, and more to the point to play the players who give them the best chance to win. That’s more productive players who help the team get the most out of the roster. That’s why Marisnick needs to play over Davis.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This goes more in-depth on the correlation between defense and making the postseason.