Francisco Lindor

Mets Will Win 2021 NL East Title

Maybe this is just the excitement which comes from Opening Day. Certainly, that is amplified by new ownership, the Francisco Lindor extension, and Jacob deGrom taking the mound. However, taking everything into account, this New York Mets team is the best one we have seen since 2015 and probably 2006.

Like most times the Mets are good, they are going to be led by pitching. Their starting staff is great, and when healthy, it is the best in baseball. Part of the reason why is deGrom is still the best pitcher in baseball. Behind him right now is Marcus Stroman. Stroman has made adjustments and added new pitches, and he looks set for a career year. That is really saying something considering he has been a gamer his entire career, and he was the World Baseball Classic MVP.

Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco may be the two most underrated pitchers in baseball. Looking at their FIP, they pitch at or near an ace level. In this rotation, they may be no better than third or fourth starters. It’s not just doing deGrom-Stroman-Syndergaard-Carrasco. This is one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball.

Behind that quartet is Taijuan Walker who was once a top 100 prospect, and he seems poised to take a big step forward after using analytics to help him improve. After Walker, the Mets have David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto, each of whom could be around a three in most rotations. For the Mets, they will eventually be on the outside looking in.

They are all going to be better pitchers because they have the tandem of James McCann and Tomas Nido behind the plate. Both of these players are strong catchers who are excellent pitch framers. Having catchers like that behind the plate make good pitchers even better. When your starting pitching is great and operating at a high level, you are going to win a lot of games.

This is paired with an incredible lineup. They Mets have an embarrassment of riches on that front. Consider Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have each been All-Star lead-off hitters, and they aren’t even the Mets best lead-off hitter. That’s Brandon Nimmo. With that group plus Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith, their 1-6 of their lineup can and probably should be hitting in the middle of the order.

Now, this Mets team isn’t perfect. Far from it. The first problem is their bullpen. The good news on that front is between Edwin Diaz and Trevor May, they have the last two innings covered well. The hope is at least one of Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, or Jeurys Familia can figure it out to become that seventh inning reliever. That is at least until Seth Lugo is good to return. When that happens the Mets bullpen will be in great shape.

Another factor there is the Mets have some other interesting options. Sooner or later, Drew Smith will be healthy and ready to rejoin the bullpen. It should also be noted when the Mets have their full rotation, someone like Lucchesi can move down to the bullpen where his churve could be a weapon on par with Lugo’s curveball.

The other issue is the defense. Simply put, having J.D. Davis at third is unacceptable. He can’t remotely field the position. Having Dominic Smith behind him makes the left side defense one of the worst in baseball. To that, they may not be the worst in the division with the Atlanta Braves probably being worse with Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.

It’s very possible Brandon Nimmo can succeed with positioning in center. After all, he’s had positive OAAs in center most of his career, and he does have the speed for the position. Jeff McNeil seems more comfortable at second, and while Alonso has his defensive issues, he is quite adept and receiving throws around first.

While the lineup has serious defensive issues, the bench does not. Luis Guillorme is a Gold Glove caliber defender. Albert Almora and Kevin Pillar are also quite good. With the lead, we can and should see Luis Rojas run all three out with Smith moving to first base. When that happens, the Mets defensive alignment turns from questionable to really strong.

Therein lies the key. Aside from health, Rojas is going to be the biggest key to this Mets season. He is going to need a deft touch as to when to utilize his defensive replacements. He and Jeremy Hefner are also going to have to get their rotation healthy through the season, which is all the more challenging because of the shortened season last year. They are also going to have to find the right mix in the bullpen while making sure they don’t overuse their best relievers.

Right now, the Mets have the right mix to have a great season. They also have an owner willing to invest in the team, and they have Sandy Alderson in charge, who we know will not be shy making a key trade or two to improve this Mets roster.

Looking at the Braves, their pitching has durability issues, and their defensive issues may be worse than the Mets. The Phillies don’t have the starting pitching, and their bullpen was a disaster last year. The Marlins are young and not deep. The Nationals still don’t know what they are going at key positions on the field.

Taking everything into account, the Mets are the best team in the National League East. If Rojas is up to the task, and there is every reason to believe he will be, the Mets are well poised to return to the postseason again and let their pitching take them back to the World Series.

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J.D. Davis Ready For Great Season

There are reports the deadened ball efforts may not have gone as planned with the new balls looking all the more juiced. That could really benefit J.D. Davis who had a really good second half in 2019 with the juiced ball.

Add to that, his working with Francisco Lindor and Gary Disarcina at third. Certainly, Lindor’s range helps him defensively as he has less ground to cover. We already saw some of the positive results this Spring Training.

When you look at Davis, you see a player who is in a position to succeed. He’s in a deep lineup, and there are players around him who are going to make him a better player. Between that and his willingness to do whatever he needs to do to succeed, no one, especially me, should be counting out his ability to have a great 2021 season.

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Steve Cohen Added Hall Of Famer Francisco Lindor To His Collection

One of the unspoken parts of the Francisco Lindor extension discussions was Steve Cohen and the New York Mets had the opportunity to add another Hall of Famer to the franchise. With the 10 year/$341 million contract, the Mets did just that.

This is what the Mets were able to do with Mike Piazza. Depending on how future votes go, the same can be said for Keith Hernandez and Carlos Beltran.

Point is, it doesn’t matter where your career began. What matters is where you spent the bulk of your career and had the greatest impact. With a 10 year deal, Lindor will be in line to wear a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.

Make no mistake, Lindor will be a Hall of Famer.

Consider for a moment, the average Hall of Fame shortstop has a 43.1 WAR7 and a 55.3 JAWS. So far, through five-and-a-half seasons, Lindor is at a 27.9. If he continues his 5.3 WAR/year production over his first five years, he’ll hit a 37.4.

That’s right behind the 43.1 mark. However, it should be noted Lindor is entering his prime. He’s entering his prime after already establishing himself as a 30 home run, 100 RBI shortstop.

That’s Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken Jr. territory. In fact, with each passing year, he continues to put himself on Ripken’s level.

Now, Lindor is with a New York franchise where his profile will be even higher. He’s also at a place more invested in analytics and getting the right data to players to help them perform at their peak. In some ways, Lindor finds himself in the position Gary Carter once did.

New York will be the place Lindor shows just how much of a leader he is. He’ll show his enthusiasm and love for the game on a bigger stage. God willing, this will be the place he leads the Mets to the World Series.

When all this happens, there will be no doubt Lindor should have his number retired, and he will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. He will wear a Mets cap on his plaque.

All that will be made possible because Steve Cohen stepped up to give Lindor the extra million more than Fernando Tatis Jr. received. It was possible because Cohen understands value. It was made possible because Cohen purchased the Mets.

Opening Day starts a new era in Mets history. It’s no longer just the start of the Steve Cohen Era. It’s now the start of the Francisco Lindor Hall of Fame Era in Mets history.

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Mets Sticking To Offer To Francisco Lindor Bad Idea

Being honest and fair, the 10 year/$325 million offer to Francisco Lindor was absolutely offering the superstar a contract everyone should’ve expected him to accept. As such, it’s a fine place to draw a line in the sand.

If that was it, everyone could move forward and wait until after the 2021 season. However, that is just part of the story. The other part is how the Mets have handled this publicly.

The Mets obviously leaked their offer, and Lindor’s camp obviously leaked their 12 year/$385 million counter-offer. If reports are to be believed, both sides are firmly entrenched in their positions and are playing chicken in advance of Opening Day.

If a deal is going to get done, someone has to blink. If it’s Lindor, that may not be as good for the Mets as some may believe.

Yes, Lindor blinking and signing that record deal is great for the Mets. It keeps a superstar and future Hall of Famer on the team for a decade. However, that’s only part of the story.

If the Mets very publicly make Lindor blink, all of baseball will notice. They’ll notice it just like they noticed when George Springer became a Toronto Blue Jay.

The Mets will look to be rigid and ruthless in negotiations. It will not be seen as a team trying to get a player, but rather, as an organization who looks to win every deal.

Keep in mind, that’s not the same as being cheap like the Wilpons. Clearly, Cohen has shown an ability and willingness to spend. This is something different.

It’s an odd situation where you make a record offer, and you make the other side have to swallow his pride and accept it. That’s exactly what will happen if Lindor signs that deal.

He will be in a clubhouse overjoyed he’s staying. He will also be in a clubhouse with players looking for their own deals.

Certainly, Michael Conforto, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, and their agents are watching this closely. At least with respect to Conforto and Syndergaard, the Mets have indicated there’s an interest in an extension.

How these players and their agents approach those negotiations will be very much impacted by the Lindor resolution. That’s not to say they won’t sign if the money isn’t right. Rather, it’ll be much more difficult to get there. That goes double where Scott Boras is involved.

The same will be true for future free agents. To a certain extent, it’s fair to say the Mets were shy in bidding wars, and they were not willing to go where they needed to go to get deals done.

Saying that with Lindor would be all the more alarming. It’s one thing for this to not get done. It’s another to leak offers and put public pressure to accept the proverbial “take it or leave it” offer.

Really, if the Mets just give an inch, perception changes. They will have finally gotten the big deal done. They suddenly seem more able to get deals done and be more creative and flexible. That has real value.

By first pitch on Opening Day, the Mets and Lindor either will or will not have a deal. If the Mets have a long term view, they will have Lindor for the next decade while just giving him that inch he needs to save face, and the inch the Mets need to give to help them with negotiations with their other star players and future free agents.

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20/20 Offseason Hindsight: Let The Steve Cohen Era Begin

Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets, and suddenly, everything got better. After Cohen purchased the Mets, things were different, very different:

1. It’s still unbelievable to think the Mets added $92.1 million to the 2021 payroll alone. If nothing else, that announced everything was different.

2. The Francisco Lindor trade was a franchise defining trade. He’s a superstar as future Hall of Famer.

3. It’s still hard to believe a contract extension won’t get done. After him, Noah Syndergaard may get one next.

4. It’s hard to see Scott Boras letting Michael Conforto sign an extension now. However, if he does, he will be poised to be the next captain and break a lot of David Wright’s records.

5. Speaking of breaking records, Jacob deGrom looks primed to have a great year. He cane out in midseason form, and it’ll be a shock if he’s not the Cy Young.

6. When Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco return, this will be an all-time Mets rotation.

7. It’s still curious the plan to start the year is to put David Peterson in a position where he bounces back and forth all year.

8. Speaking of curious decisions, how do the Mets make all of these moves and build a ground ball staff only to trust J.D. Davis at third.

9. They’re also putting a lot of stock in Edwin Diaz being great, and Miguel Castro figuring it out. Although to be fair, it’s not the same with Davis as this was the result of Seth Lugo‘s injury.

10. Dellin Betances looks done. With him, we may find out just how much Cohen can tolerate and whether the Mets know how to handle a sunk cost.

11. With Jordan Yamamoto not making the Opening Day roster and Luis Guillorme not getting a starting job, we see Spring Training competitions are a complete fraud.

12. For all the lip service Sandy Alderson gave to making the Mats a better defensive team, he did what he always did in putting multiple first basemen in the field.

13. They may be deadening the ball, but Pete Alonso looks ready to murder them. He’s completely locked in and looks poised to have a monster year.

14. Marcus Stroman also looks set to have a great year. He may be a surprise Cy Young contender, and it may behoove the Mets to lock him up before his price tag soars.

15. Stroman is a reminder the Mets never needed Trevor Bauer. Bauer may have another great year, but he’d be a fifth starter on this team, and he would’ve prevented the Mets from extending their stars.

16. All told, this is a team who has a deep lineup and a very good starting rotation. There are holes, but the team seems confident they can win.

17. The black jerseys returning does give this team big 1999 vibes.

18. Luis Rojas may emerge as a surprise manager of the year candidate. This team is that good and so is he. The key will Be how well he utilizes his defensive replacements in Guillorme (who should be starting), Albert Almora, and Kevin Pillar.

19. James McCann seems like the perfect addition to this team. The pitchers seem to be raving about his leadership and work behind the plate. If he hits a little (and he can hit a lot), he’s going to be great.

20. Everything about this organization is different. The team is vastly improved. They’re looking to keep their best players. They’re beefing up their analytics and player development. Overall, it’s a great time to be a Mets fan.

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Francisco Lindor Extension Negotiations Isn’t Same Old Mets

In case you were wondering just how much the Wilpons have scarred New York Mets fans, we see the reactions to the Francisco Lindor contract discussions. Seeing it, you’d think the Wilpons were again outbid for a borderline MLB reliever.

It should be noted the Mets have offered Lindor a 10 year/$325 million contract. That’s an AAV of $32.5 million which would pay Lindor until he’s 37 years old.

It would make it the largest contract in Mets history given to David Wright by more than double. It would fall only short of Mookie Betts and Mike Trout for the largest extensions in MLB history. It’s on par with the extension given to Fernando Tatis, Jr., and it would put him only behind Bryce Harper in the division.

Yes, Lindor has every right to negotiate for every last penny, and he’s in his right to reject that offer. After a big year, he could get a better offer, and perhaps he won’t. That said, you have to respect him betting on himself.

That’s what this is. It’s a mixture of Lindor thinking he’s worth more and betting on himself. You can say that because the Mets made an extremely fair and reasonable offer.

It’s part of a completely different offseason for the Mets where they added a lot of payroll. Seriously, you wouldn’t see the Wilpons make these moves in one offseason let alone two or three:

Adding those salaries up, the Mets added $92.1 million. Read that again. The Mets added $92.1 million to the 2021 payroll.

What exactly about that is the same old Mets? If it’s missing out on Trevor Bauer, George Springer, or not extending Lindor yet, it’s over focusing on the negative. Likely, it’s schtick, scarring from the Wilpon era, or just a want to be miserable.

Whatever happens with Lindor will happen. We can judge that on Opening Day as well as the 2021 season and beyond. Whatever the case, this is a very different Mets organization than we’ve seen from the Wilpons, and it should be viewed and treated as such.

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Mets May Be Paying For Francisco Lindor Agent’s Previous Blunders

At the moment, the New York Mets and Francisco Lindor are at an impasse. The Mets made a “final offer” of 10 years/$325 million. Lindor countered with 12 years/$385 million.

At this point, you’d expect both sides to get this done because both sides have a lot to lose.

For the Mets part, it’s Steve Cohen’s credibility. Fans won’t care about Lindor’s demands because Cohen is the richest owner in sports. Many fans will say an extra $60 million is pocket change to him.

Another factor is Andres Gimenez. The once top prospect from the Mets was impressive in 2020, and he has really impressed the Cleveland Indians. It’s an even worse look not to extend or sign Lindor when Gimenez is a budding All-Star.

With respect to Lindor, this is his career and his life. Whatever the deal, this is where Lindor is going to finish his career, and it is where he will live for at least the next decade of his life.

As much as both sides have at stake, it may be nothing compared to Lindor’s agent David Meter. Meter has already had some high profile failures with his negotiations.

The first was Ozzie Albies. The Atlanta Braves signed the young second baseman to a seven year/$35 million extension which was almost universally panned.

Sports Illustrated called the deal “insultingly cheap.” The Ringer called it an “inexplicable contract.” Jeff Passan, now of ESPN, said the deal was universally looked upon as “the worst contract ever for a player.”

As bad as that deal was for Albies, at least he got a contract. Craig Kimbrel couldn’t say the same thing.

Through the first nine seasons of his career, Kimbrel was on a clear Hall of Fame path. His ERA+ was the best all-time, and he was approaching the top 10 in all-time saves. At 30, he was still in the prime of his career.

The end result was Kimbrel not signing with anyone. This was largely because Kimbrel and his agent completely misread the market.

In many ways, like Meter is doing with Lindor, the goal was setting a record contract. This led to an asking price of $100 million. There rumors he wanted a 5-6 year deal. This was not just for a closer, but for a closer who was going to be 31 in the first year of the deal.

You know you’ve done something wrong as an agent when you have a future Hall of Famer in his prime, and you fail to even engage in serious negotiations. Meter didn’t just misread the market, it was like he was a toddler trying to read War and Peace.

This left Kimbrel with little other choice than to wait out teams and for the draft pick compensation to pass. Eventually, Kimbrel did get a three year $43 million deal with the Chicago Cubs.

It should be noted that was a lower AAV than the $17.9 million qualifying offer Kimbrel received from the Boston Red Sox. It was also lower than the offers Kimbrel likely solicited and turned down.

There’s another important element here. Kimbrel had been astonishingly durable in his career. After the long layoff, he hit the IL after just 23 games. He was also terrible in last year’s pandemic shortened season.

These are arguably the two highest profile negotiations Meter has handled, and he and his agency have botched them both. Perhaps, this is a good news/bad news situation for the Mets.

With Albies, the lesson was don’t jump the gun and take a well below market deal. With the Mets offering $325 million, it’s safe to say Meter is past that point. Now, he just needs to learn the Kimbrel lesson.

According to Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News, the Mets were assured Lindor wasn’t asking for an extension greater than Mookie Betts‘. Lindor’s counter-offer was just that. It’s now time for Meter to learn the Kimbrel lesson.

Lindor is the best SS in the game. He’s a superstar who is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. That said, he’s coming off the worst year of his career. Right now, we’re all able to write that off as pandemic related.

Here’s the problem for Meter and Lindor. If he doesn’t return to form, his market is annihilated. The impending shortstop free agent class is too deep, and no one is going to come near the Mets offer.

If Lindor wants to bet on himself, he should, and we should all respect that. There is nothing wrong with that. It’s his career, and he’s earned that right.

However, for Meter, everything rides on this negotiation and season. He can’t mess things up for a third client. Right now, he’s trying to make the Mets pay for his previous mistakes. If he’s not careful, he could be making the biggest mistake of his career.

Ultimately, this is why there should be optimism a deal gets done despite the Mets last offer posturing. The Mets need to continue to change the narrative, and Meter needs to not screw up a high profile deal.

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Still Too Early To Worry About Mets Extension Negotiations

After this season, Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. With respect to Conforto and Lindor, they have said they will not negotiate in-season.

At the moment, it does not appear the New York Mets are particularly close to completing deals with any of the four. That said, it hasn’t stopped Steve Cohen from having some fun with it.

There are various reports on each. There’s some confidence Lindor will get his $300 million extension. No one trusts Boras will reach a deal on Conforto with the paucity of quality MLB outfielders on the free agent market. No one is sure what Syndergaard’s value is, and it seems like everything is silent on Stroman.

This is still in the big yawn territory. Remember, the Mets held up the plane back to New York to ensure Jacob deGrom would sign his extension. Certainly, if they need to do that again, they’ll do it.

Up until the moment you hear player introductions on Opening Day is the time to be worried. Short of that, we should still trust at least one of these deals get done.

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Mike Piazza Is Our Living Legend

While COVID protocols are supposed to put a stop to the ceremonial presentation of the lineup cards to the umpire, everyone seemed to make an exception for Mike Piazza. During Spring Training, he went out to home plate to deliver the lineup card while everyone else remained in the dugout and clubhouses.

While most former players stayed home, Piazza was at Spring Training. He was seen talking in the dugout. He spoke with the media about being a Mets great and about his being in the position Francisco Lindor now finds himself. With all of this, we see Piazza embracing his role as the Mets living legend, and in turn, the Mets franchise embracing him.

Truth is, this has been a process we have seen take place since 2015, perhaps sooner. It was Piazza who threw out the first pitch before Game 3 of the 2015 World Series. That was a spot which should have gone to Tom Seaver, but as we later learned, Seaver was not in good enough health to make that appearance. As such, it was Piazza who threw out that pitch.

If you think about it, the passing of that torch from Seaver to Piazza ceremoniously happened when Citi Field opened. As we know, the last pitch ever thrown at Shea Stadium was Seaver throwing a pitch to Piazza, and the two legends exited the stadium side-by-side. They would recreate the moment by entering Citi Field together with Seaver again throwing a pitch to Piazza.

In that moment, Piazza became the Mets living legend. That status was further crystalized with Piazza’s first pitch, Hall of Fame induction, and number retirement. We also saw the Mets rename the road by their Spring Training complex after Piazza much in the same way the Mets finally did for Seaver at Citi Field.

The good news with Piazza is the Mets have had an easier time embracing him than they did with Seaver. Of course, that refers to the organization led by the Wilpons and not the fans. There has been no apparent uneasiness between them, and we have seen Piazza as a regular face at the important Mets events. We will see that once again on the 20th anniversary of 9/11.

All told, we are blessed Mike Piazza came to the Mets in that 1998 trade and that he signed that deal. That led him to a path towards not only further building his Hall of Fame resume, but it also led him to being the real face of the Mets franchise. He is the person who mentors the young players at Spring Training, helps the next generation of Mets superstars, and he is the man who throws out the first pitch before the first game of the World Series.

Put another way, Mike Piazza is the Mets living legend.

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Reasons Mets Should Not Extend Francisco Lindor

The New York Mets are currently negotiating a long term contract extension with Francisco Lindor which may very well surpass $300 million. Here are the reasons why the Mets should be cautious and not give Lindor such an extension:

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