Eric Campbell

Mets August 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered August 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They also trailed the Marlins by 1.5 games for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

By going 15-14, August turned out to be just the second winning month the Mets have had this season.  They now trail the Nationals by nine games in the NL East.  After what has been a crazy month, the Mets still remain 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot.  Only now, the Mets trail the the Cardinals after having helped put the Marlins away having won the first three against them in a four game series.  Given the Mets weak September schedule, it should be an interesting finish to the season.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (C).  After the Jonathon Lucroy rumors died down, d’Arnaud starting hitting again.  However, he has cooled off to hit at a rate slightly better than his 2016 totals.  Part of the reason may be Collins playing Rivera over him with the Mets needing to throw a lot of young pitchers out there.

Kevin Plawecki (Inc.)  Plawecki spent the entire month down in AAA where he has started hitting again.  He should be among the first group of players called up today.  It’ll be interesting to see what, if any, impact he has over the final month of the season.

Rene Rivera (C).  Rivera came crashing back to Earth offensively.  However, his value has always been as a receiver, and he has done that job fairly well helping usher some of these young pitchers into the big leagues.

Lucas Duda (Inc). Duda is most likely gone for the season, and the debate will soon begin about whether he will be a Met in 2017.

James Loney (F).  He didn’t hit for average or power, nor did he get on base much during the entire month.  Worse yet, he has not been good in the field.  The next ball he stretches for will be his first.

Neil Walker (A+).  What has happened to Walker is nothing short of heart breaking.  He had completely turned his season around, and he appeared to be headed for a massive payday this offseason with him standing out as one of the better options in a weak free agent class.  Instead, Walker is going to have season ending back surgery to end his season.

David Wright (Inc.).  It’s clear he’s done for the season, but it is nice seeing him around Citi Field and looking better.

Asdrubal Cabrera (A+).  Since his return from the disabled list, Cabrera has been a blonde bombshell.  He moved into the second spot in the order, and he he has combine with Reyes to form a dynamic and powerful 1-2 duo at the top of the lineup.  The only concern is how much he is going to actually be able to play with that lingering knee issue.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers, and now he’s hitting righties better. The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (D).  Reynolds didn’t hit well during his 10 games with the Mets this month.  Worse yet for him, he has been passed over on the team’s depth chart by Rivera.

Ty Kelly (A).  During his limited August playing time, Collins was able to maximize Kelly’s abilities by making him a short-lived platoon left fielder with Cespedes dealing with his quad injury.  In his nine August games, Kelly hit .381/.500/.524 with a double and a triple.

Michael Conforto (D).  After a stretch in which the Mets bottomed out, Conforto was sent down as he was a young player unable to handle sporadic playing time.  Since being sent down to AAA, Conforto has hit everything including lefties.  He should be called up today, and most likely, never play as Collins is his manager.

Yoenis Cespedes (A).  It was admirable that Cespedes played until he could play no longer (even if his golfing might’ve been part of the reason why).  Since his return, Cespedes is hitting home runs again.  He has had another incredible month, and he had a walkoff with a legendary bat flip to help the Mets beat the Marlins.

Curtis Granderson (D).  It hasn’t been fun seeing last year’s team MVP struggle the way he has this month.  He lost his job in right, moved to center, and now has become a part time player.  The hope is that with the time off, he rests up, and he returns to the Granderson of old.  Those hopes don’t seem that far fetched after he came off the bench the other night to hit two home runs.

Juan Lagares (Inc).  Lagares didn’t play in August due to the thumb surgery.  It remains questionable if he can return in September as he will most likely not be ready for rehab games until after the minor league affiliates have ended their seasons.

Alejandro De Aza (C-).  De Aza followed a great July with another poor August.  Mixed in there were a couple of terrific games that helped the Mets win a pivotal game against the Cardinals.  Right now, what he brings more than anything is the ability to play center field.

Kelly Johnson (A+).  Johnson continues to be the Mets top pinch hitter as well as a platoon option in the infield.  Over the past month, he has hit for more power including a surprising five homers.  His bases loaded double last night might’ve buried the Marlins.

Brandon Nimmo (Inc).  He only played two games before being sent down to AAA.  Given the fact that he’s one of the few healthy center fielders in the organization, he may see some real time when he gets called up with the expanded rosters.

Jose Reyes (A).  You could say we’re seeing the Reyes of old, but Reyes has never been this good in his career.  He has adapted extremely well to third base while playing a steady shortstop when the Mets have needed him to play over there when Cabrera has been injured or needing a day off.  The one caution is he still isn’t hitting right-handed pitching that well.  Still, his numbers were terrific.

T.J. Rivera (B).  After all this time, Rivera finally got his chance.  He made the most of it hitting .289 in 13 games while playing decently at second and third base.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc).  When he plays, he hits, but he is now on his second disabled list stint already with the Mets. With him being put on the 60 day disabled list, he’s now done for the season.   Seeing what we have seen with the team, there may be something in the water.

Jay Bruce (F).  Since coming to the Mets for Dilson Herrera, he has just been bad.  But hey, it’s not like the Mets need another second baseman, right?

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey is done for the season after having had successful surgery to remove a rib.  For a player who has been criticized in the past for attending Yankee games while being gone for the season, Harvey has been a fixture in the Mets dugout during games.

Jacob deGrom (D).  deGrom had been pitching great until August rolled around.  In back-to-back big games against the Giants and the Cardinals, he couldn’t deliver pitching two of the worst games in his career.  Hopefully, the Mets skipping his last start will help get him back on track.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has had an uneven month, but after his last start, it appears he is dealing better with the bone spurs, and he is getting back to the pitcher who was dominant over the first half of the season.

Steven Matz (C).  Just as you thought he turned things around with his flirting with a no-hitter in his last start, he goes down with a shoulder injury.  At this time, it is unknown as to when or if he can return.

Bartolo Colon (A).  Colon stopped his good start-bad start streak in August, and he started pitching much better during the month of August at a time when the Mets needed him the most.

Logan Verrett (F).  Look, he shouldn’t have been tapped as the Mets fifth starter after Harvey went down, but with that said, he did everything he could to lose the job pitching to a 13.50 ERA in August.  He eventually lost the job to Niese of all people

Jeurys Familia (A).  That’s the Familia we all know and love.  He not only had a sub 1.00 ERA, but he also broke the single season Mets save record he shared with Armando Benitez.

Addison Reed (B+).  You knew he wasn’t going to keep up what he has been doing, but even with him coming back to Earth slightly, he has still be incredible.

Jim Henderson (F).  After being on the disabled list for so long with yet another shoulder injury, Henderson has made his way back to the majors.  Unfortunately, he’s not the same pitcher.  Collins owes him an apology.

Hansel Robles (F).  Robles showed how much he has been overworked this season by Collins this month.  Hopefully, with some rest, he should finally be able to rebound and contribute in September and beyond like he had done for most of the season.

Jerry Blevins (B+).  His 2.16 ERA was terrific, but his 1.560 WHIP gives some reason for pause.  Both righties and lefties are starting to hit him, and he has been allowing inherited runners to score.

Antonio Bastardo (Inc.)  Thankfully, he is gone, and it was worth it even if it meant the Mets had to take back Niese.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) He got an unexpected start due to injuries, and he fought his way through five scoreless innings.  Good for him.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin has only made three appearances since being recalled, and he hasn’t pitched particularly well.  Whether it was the shoulder injury or teams figuring him out, he’s not the same guy he was last season.

Erik Goeddel (F).  There used to be two factions of the Mets fan base: those who thought Goeddel was a good major league pitcher, and those that didn’t.  Seemingly, everyone is now in the latter camp now.

Seth Lugo (A).  Lugo has been nothing short of a revelation this year.  Due to injuries, he has had to go from the bullpen to the rotation.  He has not only shown his stuff translates as a starter, but he also shown he could actually be more effective as a starter.  He has gotten his 2014 deGrom moment, and he has taken advantage of it.

Jon Niese (F).  Somehow, he was worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates.  He has failed in the bullpen and the rotation.  Hopefully, for him, the reason is because of his knee injury that has required surgery.

Robert Gsellman (Inc.) It’s been a mixed bag for Gsellman.  In his one relief apperance and his one start, he has given the Mets a chance to win.   However, he’s a powder keg out there as it seems as if he is in trouble each and every inning.  To his credit, he has gotten out of most of the jams.  It’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here.

Gabriel Ynoa (Inc.) Ynao was surprisingly called up to pitch out of the bullpen.  In three rough appearances, the only thing you can fairly conclude is he isn’t comfortable yet pitching out of the bullpen.

Josh Edgin (D) Edgin has gone through the long Tommy John rehab process, but he’s not quite back yet.  His velocity isn’t quite there.  With that in mind, he has struggles getting major league batters out.

Josh Smoker (B) After a rough start to his major league career, he has gone out there and gotten better each and every time out.  He is getting his fastball in the upper 90s, and he is a strikeout machine.  He could be a real factor over the next month and in the postseason

Terry Collins (D)  He iced Conforto.  He continues to overwork the bullpen.  He makes baffling lineup decision after baffling lineup decision.  He is even worse with in-game management.  However, with the Mets on a stretch against some bad teams, and the Wild Card frontrunners not having run away with it, he may once again be in position to ride some good luck into the postseason.

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The Mets Need Gavin Cecchini

The Mets are in a bad situation right now with their infield depth during a pivotal series against the Miami Marlins.  Asdrubal Cabrera has re aggravated the same knee injury that previously landed him on the disabled list after a collision with Phillies first baseman Tommy Joseph.  Neil Walker has been in and out of the lineup with a back issue.  With the Mets having sent down T.J. Rivera to make room for Rafael Montero to make last night’s start, it means the Mets have no infield depth.  They are literally one injury away from figuring out if Rene Rivera or Travis d’Arnaud is capable of playing third base.

With that, the Mets are desperate for someone middle infield help until the rosters can expand on Thursday, and on the 40 man roster, the Mets have enigmatic options.

First is everyone’s least favorite Met Eric Campbell.  Campbell is once again dominating AAA hitting .297/.396/.428 with 13 doubles, four triples, five homers, and 40 RBI.  Yes, four triples.  This follows a stint where he didn’t hit in the majors going .159/.270/.222.  The only thing Campbell has going for him is his ability to play multiple positions and his ability to pinch hit.

The next option is Ty Kelly.  Like Campbell, Kelly is versatile and has been dominating in AAA.  Unlike Campbell, he is a switch hitter who has had some recent success in the majors.  Keep in mind before he had back-to-back two hit games before being demoted again, he was hitting .186/.280/.256.  It’s something to keep in mind as he hasn’t been raking in AAA like he was when he was first called up.  Since being sent back down to AAA, Kelly is hitting .259/.323/.296.

Finally, there is Matt Reynolds.  Between him, Campbell, and Kelly, he is the only one that can play SS.  However, he is in the same boat as Campbell and Kelly in that you cannot trust him to hit at the major league level.  In his 37 games with the Mets, he hit .211/.231/.382.  After the AAA All Star Break, Reynolds has been hitting .250/.321/.292 with only four doubles in 96 at bats.

With these three not hitting or having established they are not capable of hitting at the major league level, the Mets need to turn in another direction for help.  With that in mind, the Mets best option is their 2012 first round draft pick Gavin Cecchini.

While playing shortstop this season, Cecchini has been hitting .329/.391/.454 with 27 doubles, two triples, seven homers, and 53 RBI.  Over the past month, Cecchini is hitting .368/.390/.500 with nine doubles, two homers, and 12 RBI.  While many have knocked his defense as he has a woeful .928 fielding percentage, it is notable that Cecchini has gone his last 12 games without an error.  Overall, Cecchini is playing the best out of these four players making him the Mets best infield option.

There is just one problem.  Cecchini isn’t on the 40 man roster.  The Mets would have to make a move to put him on; a move the Mets are going to have to make in the offseason anyway to protect Cecchini from the Rule 5 Draft.  Looking at the above options, there is no reason to keep Campbell or Kelly on the 40 man roster.  If the Mets are really interested in putting the best team on the field, and giving themselves the best chance to win, they will go with Cecchini.

But no.  Instead, the Mets are going to go with Logan Verrett because the Mets need another pitcher to address their infield situation.  Hopefully, d’Arnaud can play third base.

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Ya Gotta Believe Again

On August 22, 1973, the Mets won their second game in a row to raise the Mets record to 57-67 leaving them 6.0 games out in the National League East behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals.

From that point forward, the Mets would be the hottest team in baseball going 25-12 carrying them to an unlikely division championship. The Mets rode the hot streak to beat the Big Red Machine 3-2 in a best of five NLCS, and they came within a win of disrupting the Oakland A’s dynasty.

The popular story was the Mets were spurred by Tug McGraw screaming “Ya Gotta Believe!” after a M.Donald Grant “pep talk” in July. However, the truth is that team just got healthy at the right time, and when the team was at 100%, they were among the best teams in baseball.

During that year, the team was hampered by injuries. Jerry Grote, John Milner, Bud Harrelson, and Cleon Jones all missed significant time. Rusty Staub player through injuries all year.  On top of that phenom Jon Matlack was having a down year a year removed from winning the Rookie of the Year Award.  He was joined by Jerry Koosman in having a surprising down year.  Willie Mays looked to be every bit of his 42 years of age.  Young fill-ins like Don Hahn just were not producing.  The Mets were forced to do anything they could do to improve the team like releasing dead weight like Jim Fregosi.  About all that went right that season for the Mets was Tom Seaver; that and the fact that no one ran away with the division allowing the Mets to enter the postseason with an 82-79 record.

Isn’t that what this Mets season has been.  With Matt Harvey, David Wright, Lucas Duda, Adrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, we have seen this Mets team be hampered time and again by injuries.  We have seen countless Mets play through injuries like Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz with their bone spurs.  We’ve seen replacements like Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds not play up to snuff.  Players like Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto had surprising down years.  About the only thing that has gone right for the Mets this year is the fact that Jacob deGrom has continued to pitch like an ace, and the fact that no one has ran away with the second Wild Card spot.

Maybe, just maybe, this is 1973 all over again.  That 1973 team was much further back in both the standings and more teams to leapfrog in the standings.  All they needed to do was to get healthy and to get hot.  Right now, with Cespedes back and hitting home runs for the Mets again, this team is healthy, and they are on the verge of getting hot.  If that happens, the Mets can very well take that second Wild Card spot and get into the postseason.

As we saw in 1973 as well as last year, with great Mets pitching, the Mets can beat anyone in the postseason.  They can shock the world.  Anything is possible so long as they get hot and get into the postseason.

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Mets Choices Matter as Much as Their Injuries

Overall, if you want to excuse the Mets performance due to injuries, there’s merit to the argument. However, don’t let that excuse away Terry Collins’ and Sandy Alderson’s performance. They chose to go with players have established they can’t do it instead of giving other players a legitimate opportunity. 

On the Fourth of July, Matt Harvey made his last start of the season. Despite Harvey’s understandably poor performance, he left behind a gaping hole in the rotation the Mets didn’t fill. 

First, the Mets went with Logan Verrett. In seven starts, Verrett went 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA and a 1.541 WHIP while only averaging five innings per start. He then lost his job to “fan favorite” Jon Niese who had been demoted to the bullpen by the Pirates before being traded to the Mets. In his lone start, Niese pitched 4.2 innings allowing four hits, four earned, and two walks with six strikeouts. 

Combined, Verrett and Niese were 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP.  Last night, Seth Lugo walked off the mound after 6.2 terrific innings having only allowed seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts. He’d leave being two base runners that Jerry Blevins would allow to score. 

When David Wright and Lucas Duda went down with season ending injuries, the Mets first turned to Eric Campbell who hit .159/.270/.222 with one double, one homer, and five RBI. 

Next up was Matt Reynolds, who not only helped fill-in for Wright, but also provide some days off for Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. Reynolds hit .211/.231/.382 with seven doubles, two homers, and 11 RBI. 

Next up was Ty Kelly. As an infielder, Kelly is hitting .227/.292/.364 with one homer and three RBI. 

Combined, Campbell, Reynolds, and Kelly have hit .191/.264/.315 with eight doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI. These are the options the Mets went with while making excuses why T.J. Rivera shouldn’t be called-up to the majors. When Rivera finally fot his shot, he hit .355/.344/.419 with two doubles and three RBI in nine games. 

So yes, injuries have impacted the Mets. However, who they chose to replace those injured players had a similar negative impact. The Mets would’ve been much better with a healthy Harvey, Wright, and Duda. It’s possible they would’ve been over .500 and in the Wild Card race if they had given Lugo and Rivera a shot earlier. 

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Is the Mets Window Closing?

Right now, the Mets are four games out of a Wild Card spot, and they are desperately hoping with Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera coming off the disabled list this week that the team goes on a run that will bring them back into the postseason.  Whether or not that works, it is fair to ask if this is the Mets last chance to win the World Series.

The foundation of this team is its starting pitching.  Matt Harvey has gone from Opening Day starter to question mark with his season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrome.  There is no telling how effective he will be if he is able to come back.

Zack Wheeler was supposed to be back by the All Star Break.  Now, it appears that he will miss his second consecutive season.  While rehabbing from the surgery, Wheeler has had to have a second surgery to deal with forearm irritation caused by stitches, sensory nerve irritation, and now a flexor strain.  He had been treated by Dr. Dave Altchek, and he sought a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews.  We are continuously assured there are no structural issues, and yet, time and again there is a new excuse why he can’t pitch.  At the end of the day, it does not matter if he is unable to pitch due to his elbow or for other reasons.  Who knows when he can return or how effective he will be when returning.

There are more question marks in the rotation.  Steven Matz has yet to have a healthy season in the majors.  Bartolo Colon will be 44 years old next year meaning there is no guarantee that he pitches beyond this year.  Even if he does, there is no guarantee he will be this effective.  Logan Verrett has shown he is not capable of being a member of the starting rotation.  Sean Gilmartin‘s season ended early with shoulder problems.  The Mets aren’t going to pick up Jon Niese‘s option, and even if they did bring him back, you should probably expect more of the same from him.

The Mets other options are Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, both of whom are probably not ready to start in the majors.  Even if they are, both realistically project to be middle to back of the rotation starters.  That certainly helps, but that also a huge drop off from someone like Harvey.

As if the starting pitching wasn’t a big enough issue, there is the issue of the Mets offense.

As we saw this year, you cannot rely upon David Wright at all.  The Mets have no internal options to replace his bat in the lineup.  Worse yet, there is a lack of very good options on the free agent market choices available even if the Mets were so inclined to add a bat.  Keep in mind, they may also have to replace Lucas Duda at first base.  In 2015, Duda had a disc issue.  This year, Duda will miss almost the entire season with a stress fracture in his back.  There is a very real chance that he is a non-tender candidate.  The Mets do not have a first base option in the minors who is on track to play in the majors next year, and again, the free agent market is less than promising.  That means James Loney can once again be the Mets best option, and as we have seen, he is not a terribly good everyday option.

This isn’t even the Mets biggest problem, not by a long shot.

Cespedes can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and he will easily become the best free agent available.  The narrative coming out of last offseason was how much Cespedes wanted to be a Met, and that is why he returned.  That’s the hope why he will stay.  However, it’s more narrative than fact.

The fact is Cespedes didn’t get a fair market value offer on the free agent market.  Judging from the free agent contracts handed out, teams placed a higher value on Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.  The teams you would think would be interested in Cespedes gave the money to somebody else.  The Nationals were interested, but due to budgetary constraints, they only offered Cespedes a largely backloaded deal. It is possible that after another postseason berth, and Jonathan Papelbon‘s salary off the books, the Nationals could make another run at Cespedes in the offseason.  It is also possible that the Giants, Dodgers, Rangers and/or the Angels could emerge as suitors for Cespedes.  There’s always the phantom mystery team that could join the bidding.

It is certainly plausible the Mets get outbid from Cespedes, or they simply move on from him.  Keep in mind, there were rumblings all over that the Jay Bruce trade was made, in part, as insurance for Cespedes leaving in the offseason.  If that is the case, the Mets outfield will yet again be left without a true center fielder.

The main task may first fall to Curtis Granderson, who has struggled mightily this year and should not be counted on to rebound in 2017.  The Mets could go with a Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo platoon in center, but that would leave no room for Michael Conforto to play everyday.

Speaking of Conforto, there is another major issue with this Mets team.  Both Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud have regressed this year.  Certainly, Conforto’s wrist and d’Arnaud’s shoulder are factors, but the fact remains, they have regressed.  Couple that with Kevin Plawecki not progressing at all, there is a major issue.  Either the Mets young talent is not as good as anticipated, or there are impediments at the major league level that is preventing them from reaching their full potential.  In order for the Mets to remain contenders, they will need their young players to step up.

Between the aforementioned free agent market and lack of major league ready prospects, the Mets only real hopes of improving the roster is on the trade front.  The problem there is the cupboard is getting bare.  The Mets have already moved big pieces in Michael Fulmer and Dilson Herrera.  They’re not willing to move Amed Rosario, and they are really unlikely to move Dominic Smith.  The Mets could move Nimmo, but that depletes from their depth for next season, and as we have seen, the Mets need all the depth they can get.

Keep in mind that over the past two seasons, the Mets have also moved Robert Whalen, Luis Cessa, John Gant, Akeel Morris, and Casey Meisner.  They lost Matthew Bowman and Dario Alvarez without getting anything in return.  Their departures leaves a gap of mid-tier prospects the Mets could move for upgrades.

Yes, the Mets can field a very competitive baseball team next year.  As long as you have pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, you are going to have a chance to compete.  With another year of Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia, it is a seven inning game for the Mets.  It’ll become a six inning game if Hansel Robles takes the next step.  But after that?

You’re counting on Neil Walker returning, which is not a guarantee.  You’re counting on Asdrubal Cabrera developing more range at shortstop while hitting better than .255/.308/.410.  He was a .249/.307/.405 hitter from 2013 – 2015.  You’re counting on Jose Reyes to hit better than his .250/.302/.466 and be healthy all of next year.  Reyes hit .274/.310/.378 while hitting in two of the best hitter’s parks last year.  You’re counting on Wilmer Flores being able to learn to hit righties.  You’re counting on the Mets not having to rely on the Eric Campbells and Ty Kellys on the world for prolonged stretches of time over the next season.  It’s all possible, but it’s not likely.

As things look right now, the Mets better start winning some ballgames and make a run because there is no guarantee that the Mets window to contend will remain open past this season.

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Congratulations T.J. Rivera

Undrafted free agent middle infielders aren’t supposed to reach AA let alone make it to the majors. Twenty-seven year old career minor leaguers not on the 40 man roster are supposed to read the writing on the wall. They’re not supposed to get called up to the majors in August to help a team in a pennant race. 

And yet, that’s where T.J. Rivera finds himself today. The 27 year old undrafted free agent is now a major league player, a New York Met. 

Rivera got here by doing whatever he needed to do. As a 22 year old out of Troy University, Rivera hit .301/.349/.383 with eight doubles, one homer, and 19 RBI in rookie ball. Over the next five years, he would steadily improve as a hitter. The end result was him hitting .347/.389/.512 with 26 doubles, one triple, 11 homers, and 80 RBI. 

It was good enough for him to rack up the accolades this year. He was named to the Pacific Coast League All Star Game. He has been twice named the Pacific Coast League Offensive Player of the Week including being the winner the past week. He was the Pacific Coast League’s May Offensive Player of the Month. 

Still, it wasn’t enough for him to get called-up. The Mets started the year with Eric Campbell as the last player on the bench. When he faltered, the Mets turned to Ty Kelly. 

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T.J. Rivera and Eric Campbell Are Better Options Than Ty Kelly

With Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes joining David Wright and Lucas Duda on the disabled list, the Mets needed to go to AAA to find a utility infielder. For some reason or another they chose Ty Kelly.

Kelly has been a nice story this year.  He dominated AAA forcing the Mets to finally give him the major league shot the Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Cardinals declined to give him.  He had gone from a career minor leaguer to a player who has finally gotten his shot to be a major leaguer at 27 years old.  On June 8th, he even hit his first career home run off future Pirates ace James Taillon.  Kelly’s story has been one of perseverance and one of triump.  However, that terrific story does not make Kelly a major leaguer.

In 14 games, Kelly was over-matched hitting .148/.207/.259 with that one home run being his only extra base hit.  He has showed why four other organizations passed over him time and again.  He has shown why the Mets buried him on the depth chart after his 14 game stint.  Given his performance, it makes you question why he is back with the Mets,e especially with the team having presumably better options down in the minors.

If you are going to stick with the 40 man roster, Eric Campbell would have been a better choice.  He is a career .221/.310/.312 hitter, and he hit .159/.270/.222 this year.  He had some flashes this year with a five game stretch that saw him hit .273/.467/.273 while playing well defensively at first and third base.  On different occasions over the course of his career, he has come up with key pinch hits.  Since his demotion, he has hit .363/.493/.593 in AAA, which shows that he has the ability to get on base, and anyone can hit in the Pacific Coast League.  Regardless of your position on Campbell, he is a better player than Kelly.

However, Campbell has been given numerous chances to stick with the Mets, and he still hasn’t.  It has gotten to the point that the Mets now favor Kelly over him.  The Mets have moved on from him.  With that in mind, it might be time to consider someone other than Campbell and Kelly.

Again, the Mets should give T.J. Rivera consideration.  He was a Pacific Coast League All STytar, and he is hitting .340/.380/.490 in 90 games.  He has more defensive versatility than Kelly and Campbell as he plays all four infield positions, and he can also play left field.  He may not be a plus defender at any of those positions, but neither are Kelly or Campbell.  He may be a 27 year old rookie, but so was the older Kelly when he was called-up with year.  Overall, the only difference between Rivera and Kelly is that Kelly got his shot; a shot in which Kelly has mostly failed.

Admittedly, a pennant race is not the best time to give someone like Rivera a shot to prove he is capable of playing in the majors.  Then again, a pennant race is an even worse time to keep sending out a player like Kelly who has shown he struggles at the major league level.  If you are going to pass on Campbell, who has shown some ability to play at the major league level, the Mets should have called-up Rivera who provides the team more versatility despite not being a switch hitter like Kelly.

Sooner or later, you’d have to imagine Rivera will get his fairy tale shot like Kelly did.  He might even do more with the chance than Kelly has.  It would be in the Mets best interests to find out.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors

 

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The Time for the James Loney Stopgap Is Over

Unlike last season, the Mets were proactive in replacing an injured player on their roster when the obtained James Loney from the San Diego Padres to replace Lucas Duda who was slated to be on the disabled list for a long time with a broken back.

It was a good move as Loney was not only cheap, he was immediately available.  He was certainly better than what the Mets internal options of Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly.

Coming into the season, Loney was a .285/.338/.411 hitter who averaged 10 homers and 64 RBI in a season.  His OPS+ was 105 meaning he was roughly a league average hitter.  In his 55 games with the Mets, Loney has been a slightly better version of himself hitting .289/.339/.443 with six homers and 23 RBI.  His OPS+ is 108, which is what Mo Vaughn‘s OPS+ was as a Met.  Long story short, Loney is the perfect stopgap, but he is not a difference maker.  The problem is he was taking over for a difference maker in the lineup.

Since Duda became the Mets everyday first baseman, he has hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI.  His OPS+ over that stretch is 133 meaning he is batting at an All Star caliber level, and he is a difference maker at the plate.  To put it into context, David Wright‘s career OPS+ is 133.

Essentially, the Mets have gone from a David Wright level of production at first base back to the days of Mo Vaughn.  This drop in production goes a long way to explain why the Mets offense has been struggling since Duda has gone down with the broken back.

With the grim prognosis for Duda this season, and with the trade deadline having gone by, the Mets never made the necessary upgrade at first base.  If the Mets were to shift Jay Bruce (128 OPS+ this season) or Michael Conforto to first base (129 OPS+ last year), they would go a long way to replacing that production.  It is certainly worth a shot.  The time for stopgaps is over.  The Mets now need to find a real replacement for Duda’s offense.  That isn’t Loney.  Hopefully, it could be Bruce or Conforto.

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Mets July 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered June six back of the Nationals and a half a game ahead of the Marlins for the second Wild Card.  After a 13-13 month, which was their first month at or above .500 since April, the Mets find themselves 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They not only trail the Marlins in the NL East race, but they are 2.5 games behind them for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (D). It has been more of the same for d’Arnaud in July, and as such, the Mets were forced to inquire on Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline.  On the bright side, he began to hit for some power hitting two home runs.

Kevin Plawecki (F). Plawecki was sent down to AAA, and he began hitting like everyone else in the Pacific Coast League.  The jury is still out on him.

Rene Rivera (B+).  While his defense has dipped a bit, Rivera has been absolutely raking.  He has clearly benefitted from facing left-hand pitching.  Still, he’s here to be the defensive backup, and he hasn’t been as great as he has been in year’s past.

Lucas Duda (Inc). He missed the entire month with his back injuries, and no one knows when or if he will be able to return in 2016.

James Loney (B). Loney has continued to hit, but his power numbers have regressed to the mean.  He still can’t hit lefties a lick.  Furthermore, his defense hasn’t been great.  His error in the Rockies game helped lead to a loss.

Neil Walker (C).  He was actually hitting worse in June than he had been in May and June, which is saying something.  He was even briefly benched by Terry Collins.  Then he woke up in the Rockies series, and yesterday he hit a home run that just might turn his and the Mets season around.

David Wright (Inc.).  Wright is not going to play again in 2016 due to the neck surgery.

Asdrubal Cabrera (C). Cabrera started out hot to start the month, but he cooled off.  As a result, he put up similar numbers that he did in May and June.  On the bright side, he did break his 0-32 streak with runners in scoring position.  He had a nasty injury yesterday that threatens to end his season early.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers.  The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (Inc).  Reynolds only played in one game during the month before getting sent down to AAA.

Ty Kelly (Inc).  Kelly did not play in the majors during the month of July, and his 40 man roster spot appears tenuous.  If the Mets make a move for a position player, he will likely be the first to be removed from the roster.

Michael Conforto (C+)  After an initial hot streak when he came back up, he has cooled off, possibly in part to Terry Collins giving him inconsistent playing time again, and possibly in part to him having to learn center field and right field on the fly given Cespedes’ and Lagares’ injuries.  For what it’s worth, he has handled both defensive positions well.

Yoenis Cespedes (B+). While his power numbers have decreased with his injured quad, he has become more patient at the plate putting up a season high .392 OBP in July.  His power is still there with a .530 SLG; it’s just that those balls are doubles now instead of homers.  His injury has hurt the team as he can no longer play center.

Curtis Granderson (C-). Granderson had his second worst month of the season hitting .235/.337/.410, and he is not playing right field at the Gold Glove level he played it last year.

Juan Lagares (D). It turns out Lagares just couldn’t play through the torn ligament in his left thumb hitting .160/.263/.300.  He has shut it down, and he is going to get surgery to repair the problem.

Alejandro De Aza (A+). De Aza had an amazing month of July .300/.500/.531. As you can plainly see, he’s hitting everything including lefties.  It speaks a lot about both him and the Mets that he was their best offensive player during the month.

Brandon Nimmo (B-).  In 13 games, Nimmo was showed signs he could be a major league player in the near future in his two stints with the Mets.  Overall, he hit .229/.325/.314 with one huge home run.  For some reason, even with the gap in center field, Collins still refuses to let him play there.

Jose Reyes (C)  Reyes quickly acclimated to third defensively as he appeared to have been a very good defender at the position for years.  At the plate, he had some uncharacteristically good power numbers while struggling to get on base with a .239/.278/.493 batting line.  He has been unable to hit righties doing most of his damage against lefties.  He is currently on the disabled list with an intercostal strain, and it is unknown when he can return.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc). The Texas Rangers AAA castoff has played in only two games for the Mets going 1-4.

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey only made one start in July before the Mets finally discovered he has thoracic outlet syndrome which may explain the struggles he has had all year.  Harvey had season ending surgery, and he will hopefully return in 2017.

Jacob deGrom (B+).  In a month where the Mets needed someone to step up, degrom heeded the call posting a 3-1 record with a 2.27 ERA including his first shutout.  However, he did have a clunker against the Marlins who are now ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card standings.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has lost some velocity and movement on his pitches since it was discovered he is dealing with a bone spur in his pitching elbow.  For the month, he was a respectable 1-2 with a 2.45 ERA.  The main cause for concern is his walks have gone up.

Steven Matz (C-). Matz has been clearly bothered by the bone spurs, but he is starting to learn how to pitch effectively with him.  He rebounded from a terrible June to post a 1-4 record with a 3.19 ERA.

Bartolo Colon (D-). Aside from one good start in the second end of the double header against the Cardinals, Colon has had a miserable month with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.347 WHIP.

Logan Verrett (B-). Verrett was thrust into the starting rotation with the Harvey season ending injury.  He has performed well enough as a starter going 0-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.240 WHIP that the Mets did not feel compelled to go out and get a starter during the trade deadline or call up a pitcher like Gabriel Ynoa to take his place in the rotation.

Jeurys Familia (C-) Familia was walking a tightrope for a while with his struggling command, and he finally blew two saves in back-to-back appearances that were just devastating.

Addison Reed (A+).  In 13 innings, only five people reached base against him, and none of them scored.

Jim Henderson (Inc).  Henderson is still on the disabled list, and he suffered a leg injury during his rehab stint.  There is no telling when or if he will be able to return.

Hansel Robles (A+). When the Mets were looking for a veteran seventh inning reliever, Robles just went out there and took the job.  In 10 appearances he was 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA.

Jerry Blevins (A).  Aside from his last game when he had a minor hiccup, Blevins had a terrific July allowing just two hits and one earned run in 13 appearances.

Antonio Bastardo (F). Bastardo seemed to be slowly turning things around in non-pressure situtations.  However, as we saw Carlos Gonzalez launch one near the Shea Bridge, Bastardo cannot be relied upon in any game that is remotely close.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) Didn’t pitch in the majors in June as he’s been demoted to AA.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin is on the seven day disabled list with a shoulder injury.  There is no timetable for his return.

Erik Goeddel (F).  Goeddel really struggled in the month of July posting a 6.10 ERA in 11 appearances.

Seth Lugo (B) He was electric in this first three appearances even making Anthony Rizzo look silly by striking him out with a curveball that hit Rizzo’s foot.  He has been solid since then, but he has come back to earth a bit.  For the month, he has a 2.60 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP.  He would be helped by getting regular work.

Terry Collins (F). While it could be argued he has been dealing with an injury plagued roster (he has), Collins still does not make sound decisions on a day-in and day-out basis.  For the man who said, the Mets couldn’t be in a position to both win-now and develop players like Conforto, he has managed to do neither.  He also seemingly alienated his players at the All Start Game.

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The RISP Issue

Time and time again, we have all seen the Mets fail to get a base hit with a runner in scoring position.  It should come as no surprise to anyone that the Mets woeful .207 team batting average with runners in scoring position is the worst in all of Major League Baseball.  It is 53 points lower than the .260 league average and 89 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals .296 team batting average with runners in scoring position.  It gets worse.  The Mets have a .288 team OPB with runners in scoring position, which is again the worst in the Major Leagues.  This is 49 points lower than the league average .337 OBP with runners in scoring position, and it is 90 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals league leading .378 team OBP with runners in scoring position.

At this point, what usually follows is a debate between traditional fans and fans that follow more of a stats based approach.  Traditional fans believe hitting with runners in scoring position is a real skill set, and if a team is unable to hit with runners in scoring position, a team will be unable to score runs.  Stat based fans will tell you hitting with runners in scoring position isn’t an actual skill, and like anything else, everything tends to regress to the mean.  Regardless of your point-of-view, all fans tend to subscribe to the back of the baseball card concept wherein players tend to play to their seasonal averages on a year-in and year-out basis.  With that common ground in mind, here are how the current Mets players have fared with runners in scoring position along with the amount of times they have come up this year with a runner in scoring position:

Player PA 2016 Career
Asdrubal Cabrera 70 .180 .256
Eric Campbell 19 .125 .168
Yoenis Cespedes 70 .254 .301
Michael Conforto 56 .250 .256
Travis d’Arnaud 24 .182 .224
Alejandro De Aza 23 .050 .294
Lucas Duda 34 .185 .235
Wilmer Flores 41 .297 .270
Curtis Granderson 73 .274 .242
Kelly Johnson 50 .214 .261
Ty Kelly 10 .111 .111
Juan Lagares 21 .158 .271
James Loney 37 .281 .302
Brandon Nimmo 11 .200 .200
Kevin Plawecki 30 .240 .274
Jose Reyes 8 .167 .285
Matt Reynolds 12 .250 .250
Rene Rivera 31 .259 .235
Neil Walker 75 .254 .276
David Wright 38 .226 .293

* Kelly Johnson’s stats includes his 2016 stats from his 49 games with the Braves this year

While much of the ills of the season has been pinned on Campbell, Kelly, and Reynolds, the three of them have combine for only 41 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.  To that end, another scapegoat, De Aza, has not hit whatsoever with runners in scoring position.  These four batters have combined for 63 plate appearances which is still less than the plate appearances the either Cabrera, Cespedes, Granderson, or Walker have had individually this year.

Of that group, Granderson is the only batter who is hitting well with runners in scoring position.  In fact, he is the only one who is hitting higher than his career average with runners in scoring position.  Considering the fact that Cabrera has not gotten a hit with a runner in scoring position since April, it should be no surprise that he is the biggest culprit of the group.

The one encouraging sign is that most of these Mets players are underachieving with runners in scoring position. If these players finish the rest of the year producing at the rate they have done throughout their careers, this Mets team will start to score many more runs. 

 

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