Edwin Diaz
For the first time this season, the New York Mets lost a series to an NL East opponent. With it being the second place Atlanta Braves, it may be cause for concern.
Don’t be.
If we go back over the series, this was really a fluke and bad luck. This really had nothing to do with the Braves being better or the Mets being exposed.
In the first two games, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker were injured. That lead to the Braves beating Adonis Medina and RJ Alvarez.
Medina won’t be anywhere near a postseason roster, and Alvarez has already been designated for assignment. Walker isn’t on the IL, and as already noted, with David Peterson and Trevor Williams, the Mets are fine from a starting pitching perspective.
The Mets responded by winning with Max Scherzer. It was closer than expected, and the rain delay likely played a part. Still, the Mets win with Scherzer, and the Braves still can’t hit Edwin Díaz.
The finale, well, it was a frustrating loss reminiscent of the late 1990s. It was also a series of flukes.
The game was 2-2 when Jacob deGrom left the game with one on and two outs in the seventh. Yes, but the Braves made an inspired call with a hit-and-run, but boy, was that a fluke play.
It was a pitch off the plate that just got through the shift. Tip your cap, yes. Great execution, certainly. Still, a fluke play.
That doesn’t remotely compare to the ninth. Francisco Lindor hit a lead-off single. He then should’ve had second stolen. That was until Pete Alonso swung at the first pitch.
Lindor had to hold up. It could’ve been caught. Getting doubled off effectively ends the game. His view is blocked, and he erred on the side of caution.
It should’ve been Lindor at second with Alonso at the plate. It could’ve been first and third with no outs. Instead, it was runner at first with one out. It was the slower Alonso too.
Again, fluke play. Arguably, this was born of poor execution with Alonso being way too aggressive.
Fluke or not, these two plays defined a maddening loss. It was also what the Braves needed to finally beat the Mets in a series this year.
Again, it took two pitcher injuries and two fluke plays. That’s what it takes for the Braves to take down the Mets.
The Braves won. Good for them. It still doesn’t change the fact the Mets remain the much better team who only lost due to a series or events near impossible to repeat.
Mets are still vastly superior and will easily win the NL East.
Realistically speaking, Mychal Givens shouldn’t be a real issue for the New York Mets or any team seeking to make a deep postseason run. After all, Givens wasn’t the Chicago Cubs closer, and he shared primary set-up duties.
Keep in mind, the Cubs are a very bad team. Even with the expanded postseason, they sold at the deadline. That made Givens available.
For a team looking to make a postseason run, Givens is nice depth. A nice dependable battle tested arm at the end of the bullpen. He’s the guy who grabs some earlier innings and can steal some late inning set-up spots with a slightly larger lead or when your main guys are tired.
If Givens falters, you should be able to shrug it off. To date, Givens has faltered. In seven appearances with the Mets, he’s 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA, and a 2.167 WHIP. He’s almost allowed as many runs with the Mets (9) as he had in 40 appearances with the Cubs (12).
Again, a team like the Mets should be in a spot to shrug this off and adjust accordingly. However, Givens was the Mets ONLY trading deadline bullpen acquisition. As such, the Mets actually need him to be more than he is.
Except, he hasn’t been. That’s made all the worse by the Mets uncertainty in their bridge to Edwin Díaz.
Adam Ottavino has been great but needs rest. Seth Lugo has been inching back to peak Lugo form, but he’s still uneven. Trevor May is still working his way back to game shape.
Ideally, that group would’ve made Givens a luxury and not a necessity. The Mets may still get there, but they’re not quite there yet.
That’s also before the Mets face any injuries. On that note, the Mets still don’t know if they’re getting anything at all from Drew Smith or Tylor Megill the rest of the season.
Givens was a boom or bust gamble going bust. There’s still time for him and for the rest of the bullpen. The thing is after the trade deadline you’d think the Mets would’ve been in a far better spot than this.
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies had their crack at the New York Mets. Coming to Queens, the Braves and Phillies could not have been hotter, and their pitching rotations were perfectly aligned.
The Braves and Phillies purportedly did better at the trade deadline. In fact, they grabbed a couple of the relievers the Mets were targeting.
The Mets were primed to be knocked down a peg. The Braves could repeat the horrors of last year and the late 90s. The Phillies wouldn’t have to wait until September like they did in 2007 – 2008.
The end result?
The Mets took six of eight games. If not for the bizarre decision making of Joey Cora, it might’ve been 8/8.
Even with Cora, the Mets expanded their division lead from 3.5 games to 5.5. They’re 39-15 against their division foes. That’s the most intra-division wins in the National League.
As an aside, the Mets are not a paper tiger demolishing NL East foes only. Outside the division, they’re 36-25 (.574). That’s a 93 win pace.
They’re also 37-26 (,587) against teams over .500. That’s a 95 win pace. Put another way, the Mets are doing more than beating up on their division. They’re just beating everyone.
We know how they’re doing it. It’s a rotation featuring Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Edwin Díaz is the best closer in the game. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are MVP candidates.
This is all just a long winded way of saying they’re better than almost everyone. As composed right now, they could be the best team in all of baseball. Certainly, with the starting pitching and Díaz, they should be considered World Series favorites.
For now, they are the best team in the NL East. and they took care of the Braves and Phillies to establish that (again). All that’s left for the Mets now is to ensure they get that pitching healthy and set-up for October.
After the five game series against the Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets bullpen needed a break. Unfortunately, there wasn’t one in the schedule.
That left Chris Bassitt to get them one.
It wasn’t his prettiest outing, but it was his grittiest. While dancing around eight hits and a walk, Bassitt threw 114 pitches over eight innings.
Like that, there wasn’t any concern over who came out of the bullpen on a night Edwin Díaz was completely unavailable. No need to dance around with Adonis Medina or Yoan López.
No, with Bassitt going eight, Buck Showalter could hand the ball to a trusted reliever – Adam Ottavino – to wrap up the win. Ottavino did just that securing the Mets 5-1 win.
In some ways, this was a page from the 2015 Mets. Use your dominant starting pitching and only those relievers you can trust.
Back in 2015, the only relievers the Mets trusted down the stretch were Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard, and Jeurys Familia. They had the starting pitching to limit it mostly to just these relievers in the big spots.
In the 2015 postseason, the Mets got innings primarily from Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Matt Harvey. That proved to be a bit of a double edged sword as it allowed the Mets to only have to roll with these relievers, but then, those relievers were exhausted and faltered in the postseason.
Fortunately for these Mets, they’re deeper. In addition to Díaz and Ottavino, they also have Trevor May, who has looked good since coming off the IL.
Seth Lugo has also better better of late. Moreover, Trevor Williams has performed in whatever role the Mets have needed from him. Keep in mind, Showalter isn’t Terry Collins as Showalter will use the next tier of guys when warranted.
That’s something Collins could never comprehend, and it cost the Mets dearly. Part of the reason the Mets could only use three relievers was because he only trusted three.
That led to disastrous decision making in Game 3 of the World Series which caused further bad decision making the rest of the series. However, the underlying principle was correct.
The more dominant innings you get from your starter; the better your bullpen is. Less innings means more rest. More rest means better performance. Better performance leads to wins.
In pressure spots, the Mets don’t want to see the last couple of pitchers in their bullpen. That goes double in the postseason. Of course, with Mets starters going deep, and we know they can, the Mets can lean on their top performers.
At least for this win, eight from Bassitt meant one from Ottavino as Díaz, May, Lugo, and Williams rested. It means the other pitchers will be fresher when called upon to pitch again.
This is how the Mets cover their tracks in the bullpen. Dominant starting pitching going deep into games followed by the 1-2 relievers a night the Mets actually want pitching in a big spot.
So far, the New York Mets have dominated the Atlanta Braves over the first four games of this five game set. Like the prior matchups, the Mets are just proving they’re the better team.
The only game the Braves won was when Taijuan Walker had that odd step on the mound. He says he was alright, but his pitching was clearly impacted.
The two best players in this series have been Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. With all due respect to Michael Harris, the best defensive play came from Luis Guillorme.
As Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, and Max Scherzer have shown, the Braves cannot handle the Mets starting pitching. Then again, who can? Oh, and by the way, the Mets have Jacob deGrom up for the finale.
After the dominant starting pitching comes Edwin Díaz. Like the rest of baseball, the Braves haven’t been able to do anything against him either.
Buck Showalter is managing circles around Brian Snitker. He’s expertly deploying Tyler Naquin, Darin Ruf, and Tyler Naquin, and he’s getting great production from each of them.
Showalter also had the stones to have Tomás Nido lay down that suicide squeeze. With Naquin’s speed and Nido’s bunting ability, that’s knowing your roster and managing to their strengths.
Win or lose the finale, the Mets have taken the series. Win, and the Mets will have wrapped up the NL East in the beginning of August and can their sites on catching the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top overall record.
For those nervous at this statement, put 2007 aside. That year never happened, and really, this is a far different and deeper team.
This is the Mets team with the best chance of winning the World Series since 1986. It can and will happen. This Braves series is all the proof we need.
In the previous game, Edwin Díaz threw two innings leaving him unavailable until the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Then, Taijuan Walker threw an awkward pitch.
Walker somehow got out of the first allowing “just” four runs. In the second, you saw he was off. It was 6-0 with runners at the corners and no outs. Doubleheader or not, Walker had to come out of the game.
That meant the New York Mets unsung hero Trevor Williams came into the game. He did what he always does. He gave the Mets innings.
En route to giving up the inherited runs, he got the Mets out of the inning. He’d load the bases in the third, but he wiggled his way out of the jam.
After throwing just one inning over two weeks, we was summoned to take the ball and do the thankless task of just eating innings. When all was said and done, Williams did not allow a run over four innings.
Williams answered the call and got the job done just like he has all season.
When the Mets were dealing with injuries to Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tylor Megill, he jumped back into the rotation. He gave the Mets eight credible starts including a seven scoreless against the Miami Marlins.
As a reliever, he has a 1.29 ERA over 12 appearances and 28 innings pitched. Of the 12 appearances, eight of them are multiple innings. Of those eight, five were 3+ innings.
His work in the rotation has meant credible starts helping keep the Mets in first place. His relief work has saved the bullpen and allowed their big arms to pitch another day.
Just look at what happened in this last game. The Mets fought their way back into the game. This forced the Braves to use all of their high leverage relievers.
The Mets didn’t have to use any, really just Williams. This is what makes Williams so vital to this team, and what he does goes beyond the numbers.
Williams is a reason the rotation has been great. After all, he was a part of it. He’s a reason the bullpen has been great. After all, he’s been a part of it. On the later, Diaz only needing to pitch in high leverage situations is part of the reason, Díaz is having an all-time great season.
Like with Pat Mahomes in 1999, Darren Oliver in 2006, and Sean Gilmartin in 2015, Williams is that long man who is a vital part of the team. Eating these innings while pitching very well makes the team great.
In the aforementioned three seasons, the Mets were a great team who went deep in the postseason. Williams will be a reason why the Mets do it again this season.
With Edwin Díaz, the New York Mets have the best closer in baseball. As for the rest of the bullpen, well, that’s a question mark right now.
The expectation is the Mets will address this at the trade deadline. At first blush, there’s a lot which needs addressing. However, when you dig deeper, maybe the Mets are in much better shape than originally contemplated.
Lets start with the fact Major League Baseball has a 13 pitcher limit. After the five man rotation, which will be further bolstered by Jacob deGrom’s return, a team can carry seven relievers.
We know Díaz is the closer. As a result, the Mets need to fill six bullpen spots. Here’s how they look.
Adam Ottavino has been terrific with a 2.29 ERA, 176 ERA+, and a 10.5 K/9. He’s emerged as a primary set-up man. That’s five spots remaining.
Seth Lugo looks like a different reliever out of the break. He’s yet to allow a run in 4.2 innings. His run goes deeper than that. Since June 8, he has a 2.70 ERA. That’s four spots remaining.
Trevor Williams has been an important pitcher for the Mets all season. With a healthy rotation Williams will now stay in the bullpen.
As a reliever this season, he has a 1.50 ERA striking out 10.9 per nine, and he recorded his first career save this season. He can be a long man, and we’ve recently seen him get some late inning opportunities. That’s three spots remaining.
Trevor May will be coming off the IL. He’s a high leverage reliever who had a 3.38 ERA, 130 ERA+, and a 12.1 K/9 out of the bullpen from 2018 – 2021.
He looked strong during his rehab outings. If he’s back to form, the Mets bullpen gets exponentially better and deeper. That’s two spots remaining.
Now, this is where things get a little interfering. The Mets have a mix of arms in Tommy Hunter, Stephen Nogosek, and Yoan López, each of whom has performed well when given a chance.
However, that’s depth, and the Mets understandably aren’t going to rely on them come the postseason. Of course, with the innings they get from the starting rotation, the Mets may never really need anything beyond Diaz-May-Lugo-Ottavino.
Still, you build as strong a bullpen as you can. It’s possible the remaining two spots could bee filled internally.
Buck Showalter has said Tylor Megill will move to the bullpen when he comes off the IL. When he was healthy, Megill was dominant, and he could be a real weapon in the bullpen.
Of course, that also applied to Drew Smith. However, no one knows if Smith can return this year. That may go double with Megill.
As a result, ideally speaking, the Mets have two spots to fill. That could’ve been one, but Colin Holderman was traded for Daniel Vogelbach. As a result, it’s two spots.
With Joely Rodriguez being a disappointment, and with the needless obsession with LOOGYS even despite the three batter rule, the Mets will likely bend backwards to get a left-handed reliever. It’s dumb, but that’s what they’ll do.
That leaves the team finding one more big arm. Given his success in New York, and how he’s pitched this year, David Robertson is THE perfect fit. Of course, there are other options.
Then again, if the Mets get no one, they will still be fine.
As noted, the starting pitching goes deep. So far this year, they average 5.2 innings per start. Remember, that’s without one deGrom start and the team getting 30 starts outside their projected Opening Day rotation.
If we focus on Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker, they’re averaging almost six innings per start. Again, this is without deGrom.
Keep in mind, one of those five moves to the postseason bullpen. That takes one of the two needed slots. Maybe they also carry David Peterson even if he struggled in his two cracks at the short relief route.
Really, when you break it down, the Mets already can go with what they already have in October. That goes double if Megill and/or Smith return.
While very true, the Mets still should get Robertson. That’s a move that puts this bullpen in a different stratosphere and pushes them closer to being World Series favorites.
From a New York Mets perspective, the first installment of the 2022 Subway Series was a success. After all, they completed a sweep.
Really, there was a lot of good. Max Scherzer was every bit the ace. Taijuan Walker showed he can be a big game pitcher. Edwin Dįaz had a four out save.
Pete Alonso’s hit hitting continued. Francisco Lindor’s bat reawoken. Starling Marte had a walk-off hit. Again, there was a lot of good in these two games.
None of these moments were more important than Seth Lugo’s appearance.
It’s no secret the Mets need middle relief help. That was all the more apparent when David Peterson allowed a game tying two run homer to Gleyber Torres in the eighth.
Of course, Buck Showalter went to Peterson partially because Joely Rodriguez has not been effective this season. The other reason is the Mets had two innings to figure out.
In the previous game, both Díaz and Adam Ottavino pitched over an inning. In all likelihood, neither were available for this game. That goes double for Ottavino.
If not them, then who? That’s an all the more difficult question in the aftermath of the Mets trading Colin Holderman for Daniel Vogelbach.
And yes, Lugo has been part of the problem. On-and-off the field has been mentally tasking for him. There’s the injuries, a sick child, a pregnant wife, and then the missed birth of his second born child.
In some ways, it’s no wonder we hadn’t seen the real Lugo yet. As a result, we see a pitcher with a career worst year out of the pen.
He has a 4.01 FIP and 2.83 K/BB with his strikeouts down to an 8.3 K/9. He has a 9.64 ERA on no rest. He hasn’t been nearly as effective in a second inning of work.
This played a part in Peterson over Lugo to start the inning. Now, if this was the Lugo of old, he’s out there for the six inning save. Well, after the Peterson blown save, we got to see the Lugo of old:
Lugo’s curve embarrassed and struck out Josh Donaldson. It was the first out of the five Lugo recorded en route to his second win of the season.
Lugo was excellent.
After getting two quick outs in the eighth, he would face Aaron Judge with the go-ahead run on first. He would get Judge to ground out to end the inning and the rally.
This is what Lugo once was not long ago. He was dominant for more than an inning golf work. He took control of the game. Lugo chalked it up to adrenaline.
If that’s all he needed, he needs to make sure he has it in his next outing and each of the ensuing ones. If a full house ramped up with energy brought out the best in Lugo, he’s ready and will be phenomenal for October.
It wasn’t just this outing. This is his second one after the All-Star Break. That’s 3 1/3 scoreless. Seeing Lugo out there, there’s a lot more to come.
If so, that’s one fewer reliever the Mets need at the deadline. If so, the Mets could have a lights out bullpen. That goes double with Trevor May returning from the IL.
For at least one moment, Lugo was Lugo, and the Mets won. We’ll see the if he is his next time on the mound. Odds are, Lugo will be great again, and if so, this Mets team is on a whole other level. Just ask the Yankees.
For some reason , bizarre things just seem to happen to the New York Mets when they play the New York Yankees. The Mets usually lose as a result.
Choose your moment of infamy. Todd Zeile’s would be homer off Andy Pettitte landing on top of the left field wall leading to Derek Jeter nailing Timo Pérez at the plate.
Of course, the moment which will forever haunt us all is the Luis Castillo dropped pop up. Instead of a Mets win, they lose as Mark Teixeira got on his horse (pun intended) and scored from first to win the game.
For a moment, it seemed like the Mets were going to have another one of those awful gut wrenching moments against the Yankees.
With the Mets up 6-3, a runner on first, and one out, Aaron Judge hit a tapper back to Edwin Díaz. What could’ve been a game ending double play looked like another game just horrifically thrown away.
Edwin Díaz, -27mph Fastball. 😂 pic.twitter.com/jq3G6yugwu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 27, 2022
There are no words for how bad that was. In that moment, you do have a slight pause and concern Díaz will throw it into center, but you never imagine he just won’t throw it at all.
You can already see the narratives emerging. The Mets are reeling, and the Yankees would be the ones who effectively ended their season. The Mets were again going to give away the division to the Atlanta Braves.
Diaz is not a big time closer who cannot handle the pressure situations or New York. He cannot handle the four out saves, and if the Mets even get to October, he will melt down there. Really, this was going to be as insufferable a loss as the Mets could possibly have.
Of course, there would be Mets fans concerns and panic coupled with Yankees fans gloating to make it all the worse. Thankfully, that moment was just a moment we can all laugh about now.
Instead of Anthony Rizzo hitting that game tying three run homer we all expected, he struck out. Then, Gleyber Torres struck out to end the game. Essentially, Diaz did what great closers do – they shake it off and get the next batter.
Maybe this is a sign things are different this year. Certainly, it is a sign Diaz is different, and maybe these two things go hand-in-hand. Whatever the case, we don’t have another Luis Castillo moment, and for that, we as Mets fans can be eternally grateful.
When you look at the New York Mets, the obvious area to address for offense is catcher. After all, Tomas Nido has a 47 wRC+, and Patrick Mazeika has a 39. That’s just indefensibly bad offensive production.
Now, this is the obvious spot where we say the Mets should call-up Francisco Alvarez. With Alvarez hitting a double and grand slam in consecutive games, we are not at that point yet. After all, he is hitting .125/.318/.281 over 10 games. You can argue that will probably translate better than what they are getting now, but with Alvarez, it is more than just what he can give you now.
Surveying the trade market, it would seem Willson Contreras and his career best 140 wRC+ would be a perfect fit. In actuality, this would be a mistake for the Mets.
Ultimately, this is a team built on its pitching. A large part of that has been the work Nido has done behind the plate.
Nido has been a terrific framer. In fact, as per Baseball Savant, he is tied as for 14th best among framers. He’s a good week from moving up to the top 10. While he doesn’t rate nearly as high, he does have impressive pop times. He is a defensive wizard back there, and he’s helping the Mets pitching staff.
This season, the Mets staff have the sixth best ERA (3.60) and FIP (3.65) and the best K/9 (9.65). They’re also walking few batters with their 2.86 BB/9 ranking seventh. The pitching staff is dominant, and more than anything else, that is why the Mets are in first place.
Look at it another way, this team cannot hit their way out of a paper bag right now. Still, they’re 9-7 over their last 16. The biggest reason is the pitching. Since Max Scherzer has come all the IL, the starting rotation has a 1.70 ERA, which is easily the best in the majors. This right here is the Mets strength, and it’s going to be more of a strength when Jacob deGrom returns from the IL.
This is also before you see Edwin Diaz is finally comfortable and dominating. He’s easily the best closer in baseball right now.
Contreras would only serve to diminish that.
Contreras has one of the worst called strike rates in the majors. Sure, part of that could be the Chicago Cubs pitching staff, and overall, Contreras has good framing numbers. However, as noted by the strike rate, that is deceiving. Maybe things will be better with the Mets, maybe not. Given what’s at stake, it’s too big of a risk to take.
If Contreras doesn’t jive with the Mets pitchers, that’s it. This team’s strength has taken a massive hit. Now, you have another Wilson Ramos situation where you’re just relying on him to hit. That’s a dicey proposition.
For his career, Contreras is a 127 wRC+ at Wrigley and a 108 on the road. That’s carried into this year where he is a 150 wRC+ at home and a 127 on the road. Again, he is far better at home, and an important note here, while it’s only a 15 game sample size, he hits .180/.263/.260 at Citi Field.
Ultimately, even if Ramos is at his career worst at the plate, he’s a significant upgrade over what the Mets already have offensively. However, catcher is a defensive position above all else. It is about the roughly 40 plate appearances you are behind the plate over the four you get yourself. Looking at it that way, what Nido is doing is far more valuable.
The Mets can improve their offense by addressing other areas. Even with Daniel Vogelbach, they can improve at DH. They can improve at third and left. Maybe if Alvarez is ready, they can improve there. What they can’t do right now is gamble on Contreras. That is a move that can hurt them more than it can help them.