Edwin Diaz

How Mets Can Still Make Postseason

The Mets begin the second half of the season 10 games under .500 and 13.5 games back of the Braves for the division. They are only six games ahead of the Marlins for the worst record in the National League and seven games behind the second Wild Card with nine teams ahead of them. Suffice it to say, things are bleak, and the Mets are going to be in a position to sell rentals like Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, and Jason Vargas.

Still, being Mets fans, we have examples in team history where they have overcome long odds like these to reach the postseason. The 1973 Mets entered the All Star Break nine games under .500 and six games out of first place. Even more recently, the 2016 Mets entered the All Star Break six games out of first place. That team would be two games under .500 and 5.5 games out of a postseason spot on August 19th. They would finish the season on a tear and claim the top Wild Card.

Based on history, we can see there is always a chance. The question now is do the 2019 Mets actually have a chance. Looking at everything, you could paint a scenario where they do.

The first thing to look at is the Mets schedule. Right now, the Mets have six games against the Phillies and three against the Nationals. With both teams currently having a Wild Card spot, this gives the Mets a chance to get closer in the Wild Card race by beating their direct competition.

Beyond the head-to-head match-ups, the Mets do have a weak second half schedule. Right off the bat is a 10 game road trip featuring three against the last place Marlins and four against the last place Giants. In fact, the Mets have 18 games remaining against teams who are currently in last place.

Looking further, 36 of the Mets remaining 72 games are against teams with a .500 record or worse. That’s half of their games. So far this year, the Mets have fared well in those games. In their 21 games against second division clubs, they are 13-8 (.619). Now, to make up the deficits, the Mets are going to have to play at a higher clip than that. It’s certainly possible, especially with 11 of those 36 games coming against teams currently 20+ games under .500.

The Mets also have six more games at home than they do on the road. This is an important point because the Mets have actually played over .500 at home with a .548 winning percentage.

That schedule certainly lines up well for the Mets to have a big second half for a second year in a row. Remember, last year, the Mets were eight games over .500 in the second half last year, and as Noah Syndergaard will tell you, the Mets are a second half team.

That is partially the result of how their players perform.  Syndergaard’s career second half ERA is 38 points lower, Jacob deGrom‘s K/BB improves considerably in the second half, and Steven Matz strikes out 1.4 batters more per nine. Michael Conforto‘s second half career OPS is 65 points higher, and Robinson Cano‘s is 55 points higher.

Speaking of Cano, the Mets have had a number of under-performing players who had an opportunity to clear their heads and fix things for the second half. The Mets will be a significantly better team with Cano returning or coming much closer to career averages. The same can be said of Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia.

There is also the chance the Mets finally get that Amed Rosario breakout. The Mets could also potentially get help from a rookie like Anthony Kay. Overall, for the Mets to have any shot, they need players like this to raise their games with the veterans stepping up their performances. With that schedule, maybe, must maybe, the Mets could contend in the second half.

However, this is asking a lot. In addition to everyone stepping up, the Mets need Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Dominic Smith to keep up a very high level of performance. If they want to contend, they will have to hang onto Wheeler, which given their place in the standings is flat out irresponsible.

All things considered it is fun to imagine, but the chances of it all happening are remote. Really, the best we can hope for is Brodie Van Wagenen executing smart deadline deals with Jed Lowrie and Brandon Nimmo healing and being ready to put forth strong 2020 campaigns.

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Biggest Reason Mets Can’t Trade Syndergaard

After discussing it most of the offseason, the Mets are once again in a position where they are talking with teams about Noah Syndergaard. There are smart teams with interesting farm systems interested in the Mets starter. Depending on the packages offered, the Mets could be very tempted to move Syndergaard.

They shouldn’t.

One of the arguments you hear from some circles is you shouldn’t trade him because his value is at a nadir. With Syndergaard having a career worst ERA, ERA+, FIP, HR/9, BB/9, K/9, and K/BB, this is absolutely true. Seeing studies and Syndergaard’s comments, it is possible these results are reflective of the new ball. The Mets having a National League worst defense doesn’t help either.

Reasonably speaking, you could anticipate Syndergaard to rebound and led the Mets back to contention in 2020. If you trade him, it’s difficult to imagine the Mets contending anytime soon.

Looking at 2020 first, it’s hard to imagine the Mets having that one year turnaround. With Syndergaard traded and Zack Wheeler gone either via trade or free agency, the Mets have two spots to fill in the rotation. That becomes three when Jason Vargas‘ option is declined. Even assuming Anthony Kay is ready to begin the year in the rotation, the Mets still have two spots to fill in the rotation.

Given the Mets budget and historical unwillingness to spend big on starting pitchers on the free agent market, it is difficult to believe the team could build a starting rotation good enough to win in 2020. Theoretically, the Mets could fill in the rotation by making Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo starters again. However, this makes an already terrible bullpen worse, and you will likely be dealing with innings limits.

Long story short, if the Mets trade Syndergaard they will not be able to build the type of pitching staff which would let them compete in 2020. This means the Mets will have to look towards 2021. Notably, Michael Conforto and Steven Matz will be free agents after the completion of that season.

Given the uncertainty of the readiness of David Peterson and/or Franklyn Kilome to join the rotation by then, there is doubt whether the Mets pitching staff would be ready to compete by then. While this is happening, the Mets will be in year three of Robinson Cano‘s contract. That’s a consideration which needs to be accounted for when analyzing the Mets ability to compete in 2020 or 2021.

Realistically speaking, depending on the return the Mets receive for Syndergaard, the team will not be in a position to really compete again until 2022 at the earliest. With that being the scenario, the Mets should also be looking to trade Conforto for a big return as well because the team is not going to win before he becomes a free agent.

By that 2022 season, you will have wasted the first three years of Pete Alonso‘s and Jeff McNeil‘s careers, and they will be arbitration eligible. It will be the same situation for other cost controlled assets like Lugo and Edwin Diaz. This coupled with Cano’s big contract will once again infringe on the Mets payroll flexibility.

Therefore, the Mets ability to win in 2022 will hinge on what the Mets bring aboard in moving Syndergaard and maybe Conforto. It will depend on how quickly players like Mark Vientos, Shervyen Newton, Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty can develop to help the team. While you can be high on them now, it is a completely different situation to count on them to develop in time to make you a winner.

That is the situation you are in if you trade Syndergaard now. You are beginning the dismantling the core to try to compete three years from now. If the prospects don’t develop the way you intended, or players get hurt, everything falls apart. As an organization, you have to ask yourself if that is really worth it when the team is really just a center fielder and 1-2 bullpen arms away from contending next year.

When you look at it through the prism of when the Mets could actually be in a window to contend again, the team cannot trade Syndergaard now. That is, unless, the team either starts spending now, or Brodie Van Wagenen proves himself to be much more adept at trades than he did last offseason. We shouldn’t be hopeful on either development happening.

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Mets Still Have Fight

Say what you want about these Mets, but they have fight.

After yet another brutal loss, they jump out to a 1-0 lead with a Michael Conforto RBI double scoring Jeff McNeil, who had a four hit night.

Noah Syndergaard would struggle over five walking three and giving up two homers. Of course, one was hit by Jay Bruce.

The Mets were down 3-1 and responded with a McNeil RBI single in the second. They’d fall behind 4-2, and Dominic Smith would hit an RBI double in the third.

It would be 4-3 with one out in the bottom of the fifth. That’s when Jake Arrieta would hit Todd Frazier. Frazier was hopping mad over it to the point he’d get tossed and the umpires would issue warnings.

After Smith hit his second double, Arrieta plunked Amed Rosario to load the bases. When Arrieta wasn’t ejected, Mickey Callaway argued and was then ejected. Of note here, Arrieta had hit three batters all year entering tonight, and he would double that total.

No, it wouldn’t be the umpire who knocked Arrieta out of the game. It would be Tomas Nido with a three run double giving the Mets a 6-4 lead.

From there, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Steven Matz, and Seth Lugo combined to allow one run over three innings.

It wasn’t easy. In the seventh, Gsellman hit Jean Segura and wasn’t tossed. This led to Matz coming into the game. He allowed two hits scoring an inherited run before getting Bruce out to end the inning.

Cesar Hernandez led off the eighth with an infield single, and Seth Lugo relieved Matz. This would look more like the Lugo we’re accustomed to seeing. He ended the rally and preserved the 6-5 lead.

Although the Phillies hit the ball hard off Edwin Diaz, he still recorded the save. It’s a positive step, and finally, it’s a win. Even better, the Mets can enter the Break with a series win if they can pull it out tomorrow.

Game Notes: Speaking of having fight, reports indicate Van Wagenen threw a chair while berating Callaway and the rest of the Mets coaching staff after yesterday’s loss.

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Boy The Mets Blew It Tonight

On Seinfeld Night, it’s only fitting this season, which has become about nothing, looks like a team run by Wilhelm.

The Mets had a 2-1 lead thanks to a Pete Alonso homer and RBI double. It wouldn’t last due to bad umpiring and the Mets bullpen.

Entering the top of the seventh, the only hit deGrom allowed was a homer to the first batter of the game Scott Kingery. After walking Rhys Hoskins to start the seventh, the second hit was a J.T. Realmuto double setting up second and third with no outs.

After a Jay Bruce groundout with the infield drawn in, Cesar Hernandez hit a slow roller to third. Todd Frazier did all he could do by going home. At first blush, Hoskins beat the Wilson Ramos tag. Upon further review, Hoskins didn’t touch the plate. Didn’t matter because the Mets lost a challenge earlier in the game:

We’ve seen plenty of times umpires initiate a crew chief review after being persuaded by a manager. Here, Mickey Callaway tried to get the review. In 99 times out of 100, there is a crew chief review, but on the night Brian Gorman was content with his incorrect and game alerting call.

The Mets entered the ninth tied 2-2. Edwin Diaz started the inning, yadda, yadda, yadda, Jeurys Familia came on and the Mets lost 7-2. Cue Kramer:

This game is like eating a Snickers bar with a fork. No one is around to take credit for this big salad. We can’t send Robinson Cano and Diaz back to the Mariners like an old man trying to send soup back in the deli. In this unspongeworthy season, each loss is real, and it’s spectacular.

Game Notes: Alonso set the Mets rookie record for most extra base hits surpassing Ty Wigginton. He also broke Jose Abreu‘s rookie record for most extra base hits in the first half. Mets are 16-30 over deGrom’s last 46 starts despite his having a 2.15 ERA.

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Mets Fans Have Reason Other Than Van Wagenen To Cheer

True to his word, Brodie Van Wagenen say with The 7 Line for today’s game against the Yankees. It was a bold move because this is a Mets team nine games under .500 with every move he made this offseason blowing up.

In fact, all the players Van Wagenen acquired this offseason have accumulated a -1.7 WAR. Meanwhile, by and large, the prospects they traded are performing well.

Given all of that, you’d think Van Wagenen could be booed. At a minimum, you’d think they wouldn’t celebrate him. You’d be wrong. Very wrong.

They cheered a man who acquired J.D. Davis. In the second, Davis threw to the wrong base on a Gleyber Torres RBI single allowing Edwin Encarnacion to go from first to third unchallenged.

Later that inning, opposing pitcher James Paxton came up with runners at the corners with one out, and he laid down the safety squeeze. It was an excellent bunt which hugged the third base line.

Wilson Ramos, a catcher Mets pitchers are increasingly demanding not to have behind the plate, and who was signed because Van Wagenen didn’t go the extra mile to get Yasmani Grandal, picked up the ball. He would spin and throw without looking Encarnacion back.

With Zack Wheeler slipping on the play, and Ramos failing to execute fundamentals, Encarnacion scored without a challenge.

It’s a shame for Wheeler because he was very good tonight. Those three singles were three of five hits he allowed all night. In total, he’d last 6.1 innings allowing just those two earned while walking one and striking out eight.

Despite pitching well, he wouldn’t get the win. It was no matter to Van Wagenen who loved every minute of the Mets losing 2-0.

In the second, Torres flat out robbed Michael Conforto of an RBI base hit instead starting an inning ending double play. Conforto wouldn’t be robbed when he ended a rally with another 4-6-3 double play. The latter ended a sixth inning rally.

For his part, Wheeler popped up two bunts hurting the Mets chances. Between that, the defense, and getting squeezed by the home plate umpire, it was not Wheeler’s night.

Still, he wouldn’t take the loss.

In the eighth, Pete Alonso hustled hard out of the box, and he was able to take advantage of a D.J. LeMahieu throwing error. Then, Davis was able to take advantage of Aaron Hicks playing well out of position in right center. Hicks got a great jump, but his dive wouldn’t be enough. Davis doubled scoring Alonso to tie the game.

After Robinson Cano was intentionally walked (your guess is as good as mine), Ramos singled to load the bases. The Yankees pulled Adam Ottavino to bring in Zack Britton to pitch to Conforto. There would be no inning ending double play this time as Conforto hit a two run double over Brett Gardner‘s head to give the Mets a 4-2 lead.

This put Seth Lugo in line for the win with Edwin Diaz coming in for the ninth for the save.

Things didn’t start well when Diaz was slow covering first and couldn’t catch an Alonso throw on what was a Didi Gregorius leadoff single. Fortunately, Diaz settled down to get the next three out to preserve the win.

Gardner foul tipped a ball after a long at-bat. It popped out of Ramos’ glove, and he caught it with his hand. It was the type of ending this bullpen deserves.

The Mets pulled out an unlikely win with their bullpen standing strong. They now have as many saves as blown saves on the season. They snapped the Yankees streak of 31 consecutive games with a homer. For one night at least, everything went according to plan.

Well, partially according to plan anyway. In the end, a win is a win, and you take them, especially with the season the Mets are having.

Game Notes: Steven Matz will be moved to the bullpen until the All Star Break. He will join Justin Wilson, Jeurys Familia, and Luis Avilan were all activated from the IL.

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Appearance On A Metsian Podcast

On Thursday, I had the honor and the privilege of being a guest on A Metsian Podcast. It was a lot of fun and cathartic, and I would hope you would all take a listen by clicking on the link provided.

I’m not sure if this is a reason to entice you to listen, but during the course of the podcast, I personally mentioned or discussed the following Mets players: Tom Seaver, Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Cliff Floyd, Nolan Ryan, Aaron Sele, Jason Vargas, Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Roberto Alomar, Juan Samuel, Jim Fregosi, Bret Saberhagen, Vince Coleman, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Flexen, Paul Sewald, Sean Gilmartin, Darren Oliver, Pat Mahomes, Eric Hanhold, Steve Villines, Corey Oswalt, Jacob Rhame, Hansel Robles, Stephen Nogosek, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Darryl Strawberry, and others. This list is off the top of my head.

Looking at that list, maybe that’s why they haven’t brought me back after my last appearance three years ago when I went on a Daniel Murphy rant.

 

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20/20 Hindsight: Mets Bullpen Saved Someone’s Season

The Mets went to Philadelphia to take on a wounded Phillies team who was aboslutely reeling. You knew after this series one of these two teams would still be standing, and the other will look like their past offseason was all for naught. Well, the Mets bullpen would make sure that would happen:

1. As noted by Michael Mayer, the last time a team blew five games where they led by at least two runs was the 2011 Mets. No, not the last time the Mets did it – the last time anyone did it. The closer that year was Francisco Rodriguez with Pedro Beato, Bobby Parnell, and Jason Isringhausen serving as setup men. Prior to this season, no one was saying “Come get us!”

2. We can talk about different parts of this Mets team getting exposed, but no one was more exposed than Brodie Van Wagenen. He mismanaged the “crisis” with Mickey Callaway and Jason Vargas. The media reported his involvement in game decisions like removing Jacob deGrom from a game. There were reports it was more than that as well.

4. This debacle is reminiscent of the 1993 Mets with Vince Coleman throwing fireworks at fans and Bret Saberhagen dousing reporters in bleach. What’s the common denominator between those two Mets teams? The Wilpons.

5. It was good for the Wilpons to take nine years to finally do the right thing by honoring Tom Seaver. Of course, they waited so long Seaver is now suffering from dementia so he cannot travel for these honors, and he may also not have the mental faculties to enjoy the honors being bestowed upon him.

6. The article by Wallace Matthews of Yahoo is completely ridiculous. Not only does he call Vargas the team’s most reliable starter, but he gets a chance to speak with Jeff Wilpon. With that access, he talks about the incident with Tim Healey instead of literally anything else. Honestly, if Jeff wants to talk about that, don’t bother. It’s a waste of time.

7. Jeff Wilpon’s silence on the state of this team and the continual inept way it is run from a number of facets should be met by fans with silence. We could call to organize a boycott or something, but in reality, the team being this soul crushingly bad is going to keep the fans away anyway. When that happens, Jeff’s silence will be met with silence.

8. Worse than that, Jay Bruce gets a key pinch hit home run and a walk off double, Robinson Cano has multiple 0-for-5’s, and Edwin Diaz blows a save. Right there, his biggest move completely busted. Actually, that’s not fair, it was a bust long before that.

9. So much for scapegoating Dave Eiland and Chuck Hernandez because the Mets bullpen imploded in the four game set. Worse yet, these were games the Mets absolutely should have won:

10. What Dominic Smith has done this season has been nothing short of remarkable. This team needs to be smart and really look at him in left field for the rest of the year to determine if he can be a long term solution there. If nothing else, the Mets need as many cheap bats as they can get.

11. Amed Rosario has had a number of peaks and valleys, and recently, this has been a bit of a peak. Over his last 11 games, he is hitting .342/.366/.500 with four stolen bases in as many attempts. Ultimately, there still remains hope for him.

12. The Mets need to figure out what to do with Cano, and they need to figure it out sooner rather than later. Realistically speaking, he needs to be moved to a less demanding position like third base and get some days off. As each day passes, it’s clear he can’t play second everyday.

13. Moving Cano to third solves the problem there, and it allows the team to move Jeff McNeil back to second base. This should clear that spot for Smith and hopefully Brandon Nimmo if his injury proves to not be career altering.

14. Speaking of Nimmo, only the Mets could take a talented fan favorite player like him, have him get to an All Star level, and then do all they can to completely ruin him. It’s a not so fun pattern with this team.

15. Todd Frazier has done a lot to help this team and build his trade value. The problem is he’s still a rental who is not really getting you something in return. Really, if you want to make a difference at the deadline, you need to trade major pieces, but with the young talent so close, you can’t do that either.

16. Michael Conforto continues to show himself to be both a great and underappreciated player. He should be an All Star this season. If he isn’t, it’s because this team stinks, and the organization can’t be bothered to promote it’s most talented and perhaps best position player.

17. Chris Mazza getting called up at 29 years old is a feel good story. It’s a feel good story just like Tyler Pill and Drew Gagnon was before him. He should enjoy the moment, but we shouldn’t be expecting anything from him.

18. Chris Flexen looks like a real weapon in the bullpen. Brooks Pounders may become that as well. The optimistic Mets fans could look at them joining Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in front of Diaz, who really cannot be this bad next year, to become a formidable bullpen. As Mets fans, we should know better than to hope.

19. Callaway does sound ridiculous when he says the Mets are so close, but he’s not wrong. This team continues to fight and play hard. If they had even a capable bullpen, they’d be in a much better position. If fact, this is the only team in baseball with more blown saves (20) than saves (18). If you just take back half of those blown saves, the Mets are 47-35, which puts them a game out of first place.

20. Short of honoring the 1969 Mets this weekend, and maybe sometime late in the season to see if Pete Alonso breaks some home run records, there is zero reason to go see the Mets at Citi Field other than your love of the Mets and baseball. The latter is why the Wilpons have us and will never sell the team.

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Phillies Got The Mets

After a very good outing by Zack Wheeler and good relief work by both Brooks Pounders and Chris Flexen, the Mets found themselves down 1-0 with one out in the ninth.

Michael Conforto gave the Mets some hope with a single off Phillies closer Hector Neris (who was working in his three straight day). It could’ve been a double, but he wisely stopped at first when Bryce Harper, who homered to provide the margin, cut the ball off and made a string throw to second. This would put the game and perhaps the season on Todd Frazier‘s bat. For a moment, he saved the season:

The Mets tacked on another run to take a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth. In this moment, Edwin Diaz had an opportunity to put the past behind him and to just go out there and lock down a big win.

Instead, he issued a leadoff walk to Cesar Hernandez before allowing a game tying homer to Maikel Franco. The homer seemed to have the same issue Jeff McNeil‘s double the other day only this time it was ruled a homer:

Diaz was not intent on just blowing the save. Oh no! He had grander plans.

After striking out J.T. Realmuto, he again walked a batter. This time it was Sean Rodriguez, who is apparently still playing, who entered the game with a career .300 OBP. Frazier couldn’t bail the Mets out again this time deflecting what would be ruled to be a Scott Kingery single. That set the stage for the soul crushing Jean Segura walk-off.

What’s left to say? The Mets have more blown saves than saves. The Phillies have the two ex-Mariners who are actually helping a team win a division.

As noted by Mike Mayer of MMO, the last MLB team to blow five consecutive games with a two plus run lead was the Mets in 2011. There’s much more to look at including the Mets odds to win those games:

In the end, this was a team who needed a good road trip, and they instead went 3-8. They are now a season worst eight games under. If you had hope, it’s fading very fast.

Game Notes: Before the game, the Mets revealed the new address to Citi Field (41 Seaver Way), and the announced plans for a Tom Seaver statue. This took about nine years too long to accomplish.

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Jay Bruce Walks It Off!!!!!

Tonight’s game against the Phillies and the 2019 season as a whole can be summed up like this:

In the 10th inning of a game the Mets once led 4-0, Jay Bruce hit a walk-off double against Stephen Nogosek.

That’s right. A player the Mets traded away got the game winning hit against a reliever who began the year in Double-A and was rushed up to the majors because the Mets had little other option.

Robinson Cano was 0-for-5, but it’s alright because Edwin Diaz pitched a perfect ninth in what was a non-save situation. That’s certainly worth $100 million over five years plus Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn.

At the end of the day, the Mets got what was coming to them for all they did this past offseason. As a fan, you might as well laugh because if you don’t, you’re going to go crazy.

Game Recap: Chris Mazza was called up from Triple-A. To make room for him on the roster, Walker Lockett was sent down, and Ryan O’Rourke was designated for assignment. Dominic Smith homered in his third straight game.

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Jay Bruce Walks It Off!!!!!

Tonight’s game against the Phillies and the 2019 season as a whole can be summed up like this:

In the 10th inning of a game the Mets once led 4-0, Jay Bruce hit a walk-off double against Stephen Nogosek.

That’s right. A player the Mets traded away got the game winning hit against a reliever who began the year in Double-A and was rushed up to the majors because the Mets had little other option.

Robinson Cano was 0-for-5, but it’s alright because Edwin Diaz pitched a perfect ninth in what was a non-save situation. That’s certainly worth $100 million over five years plus Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn.

At the end of the day, the Mets got what was coming to them for all they did this past offseason. As a fan, you might as well laugh because if you don’t, you’re going to go crazy.

Game Recap: Chris Mazza was called up from Triple-A. To make room for him on the roster, Walker Lockett was sent down, and Ryan O’Rourke was designated for assignment. Dominic Smith homered in his third straight game.

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