Dilson Herrera
The most famed double play trio in Major League history was Joe Tinker, Johnny Evers, and Frank Chance. They were so renown that Franklin Pierce Adams would script a poem about them dubbed Baseball’s Sad Lexicon:
These are the three saddest possible words:
“Tinker to Evers to Chance.”
Trio of bears cubs, and fleeter than birds,
Tinker and Evers and Chance.
Ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon bubble,
Making a Giant hit into a double –
Words that are heavy with nothing but trouble:
“Tinker to Evers to Chance.”
As we all saw in the Future’s Game, the Mets are developing their own trio of young stars that people will wax poetic about for years to come.
For the first time ever, Amed Rosario, Dilson Herrera, and Dominic Smith took the field at the very same time. These are the very same three players that the Mets envision to be their own version of Tinker to Evers to Chance. It was easy to believe this is the future when Mets fans got to see the Future’s Game to watch Rosario make plays like this:
Great play ? @Amed_Rosario of the world team #FuturesGame Can't wait to see him with @Mets #DontBeSurprisedBeReady pic.twitter.com/3BJlYvDtkt
— MVVM Wear (@MvvmWear) July 11, 2016
This of course followed Herrera and Rosario helping the World Team put up a crooked number in the top of the ninth. Herrera hit an RBI single to put the World team ahead 5-3, and Rosario followed him with a single to load the bases. Both would eventually come home to score Seeing Herrera and Rosario get back to back base hits and score runs is something Mets fans will start seeing in the very near future.
Smith did his part to help USA win the game. He was one of the few players on the day that would play the entire game. As anticipated, he played a good defensive first base. He also had an RBI, which at the time had put USA up 2-0.
Overall, we saw each future Mets player contribute and help their teams try to win the game. Within the next few years, they will all take the field at the same time at Citi Field. Given their offensive capabilities, they will help their pitching staff get a lead in a game. Given their defense they will be able to turn a double play or two in the game. There will be excitement amongst the fans at Citi Field while the opposition and their fans will feel dejected as the Mets double play combination will give them “nothing but trouble.” Everyone else will shudder at the words:
Rosario to Herrera to Smith
There exists two Dilson Herreras. The first Dilson Herrera is the player who absolutely rakes in the minors hitting .310/.362/.504 over two seasons at AAA. This is the player the Mets see as their second basemen of the future. They see him being the Mets everyday second baseman as soon as Opening Day 2017.
Then there is the other Dilson Herrera. This Herrera has struggled at the plate in his limited time in the majors. When Daniel Murphy went down in 2014, Herrera struggled in the 18 games he did play hitting only .220/.303/.407. Last year, when David Wright went down, Herrera was first summoned as the Mets long-term plan to improve the team. Herrera struggled again only hitting .195/.290/.317 in 25 games. Ultimately this forced the Mets to start looking elsewhere to fulfill the void left by Wright’s injury. It seems the Mets believe the Dilson Herrea who has struggled in the majors is the true Dilson Herrera.
In 2016, David Wright went down again. However, this time, the Mets did not turn to Herrera. Instead, they went with a combination of Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly until Wilmer Flores returned from the disabled list. Even when the Mets lost Lucas Duda to his own long-term injury, the Mets still refrained from calling-up Herrera. Instead, they made a trade for James Loney. You could make the argument that the Mets could have moved Neil Walker and moved him to third base. However, the Mets made the arguably rational decision not to ask Walker to play a position he has only played 15 times in his career and a position he hasn’t played in about 10 years. With that in mind, it didn’t make sense to call-up Herrera as he would have had to stay on the bench. You want a young player like him getting regular at bats and improving. It is hard to do that from the bench. Overall, the Mets seemed content to go with Loney and Flores at the corner infield positions.
Yes, the Mets have struggled offensively with Flores and Loney at the corner infield positions. However, it’s hard to blame either of them for these struggles. Loney has hit a respectable .291/.349/.405 since coming over to the Mets. Since he has returned from the disabled list and taken over third base responsibilities, Flores has hit .262/.319/.415. The production isn’t exactly awe-inspiring, but they are solid numbers not only for temporary replacements, but also for bottom of the lineup hitters. Still, the Mets have World Series aspirations, and they realize that if they want to get to that point, they probably need to do better than Loney and Flores on the corners.
Accordingly, the Mets have begun to consider different possibilities. Next week, the Mets are going to bring in Yulieski Gourriel for a workout presumably to see if he is capable of playing second or third base. Also, it seems increasingly likely that the Mets will bring Jose Reyes back to Queens to either play second or third. If the Mets were to bring either Gourriel or Reyes aboard, it is at least possible, that move would require the Mets moving Walker to third. With that in mind, it is surprising that the Mets haven’t at least investigated the possibility of calling-up Herrera to play second. It’s simply ponderous.
If you want justification for the Mets decision, you could point to Herrera only hitting .290/.337/.496 in AAA this year. However, this overlooks the fact that Herrera had an extremely slow start after dealing with some early season injuries. Since April 24th, Herrera is hitting .301/.354/.488 with 13 doubles, two triples, and 11 homers. Over the course of the entire season, Herrera is hitting .338/.385/.606 with runners in scoring position. Herrera is hitting, and he can certainly help the Mets. It is surprising that the Mets are going to pursue other opportunities before even giving Herrera a look in the majors. It’s even more surprising given the fact that they have also given Kelly and Matt Reynolds opportunities this year.
The Mets haven’t even tried calling up Herrera through the Mets offensive struggles. They gave lesser prospects chances at playing time. Now, they are looking outside the organization for offensive help. Overall, while no one is saying it publicly, it seems that the Mets are not as confident in Herrera as they once were. It’s odd that it may have come to this when Herrera is still only 22 years old.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
Yesterday, the Mets announced David Wright had a successful cervical discectomy and fusion surgery. The Mets have no idea about whether Wright can return this September or if his season is over. With that in mind, three Mets are going to have to address their third base position.
The initial solution has been Wilmer Flores. He has been terrific thus far hitting .320/.375/.460. The one caution with these stats is Flores has a .366 BABIP during this 16 game stretch, and he has a career .271 BABIP. He’s due for a regression. The bigger issue is he was hit with a pitch on his left hand forcing him from Thursday’s game. Fortunately, the x-rays were negative. Unfortunately, Flores was unable to swing a bat, and he’s gone for the next few games. Maybe more.
If he is gone, the Mets have three options: (1) play musical chairs across the infield with Neil Walker and Dilson Herrera; (2) swing a trade; or (3) sign Cuban free agent third baseman Yulieski Gourriel.
Back in Cuba, the 32 year old Gourriel is a former teammate of Yoenis Cespedes, and the two were close friends. It should come as no surprise that Cespedes has nothing but glowing things to say about Gourriel. As reported by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, Cespedes said, “At the time I left Cuba [in 2011] that was the best ballplayer player in Cuba. He’s a five tool player.”
Scouts agree. Baseball America ranked Gourriel as the top Cuban prospect. He’s seen as a plus defender at third with a good arm. He has enough range to handle second, but he is really better suited to third. At the plate, he has a patient approach at the plate. He’s capable of hitting for both power and average. In sum, he’s a major league talent who calls have a big impact in the majors.
Over Gourriel’s nine year career in the Cuban and Japenese Leagues, he has hit .335/.417/.580. To put it in perspective, Cespedes hit .319/.404/.585 in eight years in the Cuban Leagues. If the numbers translate for Gourriel as they did for Cespedes, whoever signs him is getting a terrific player.
That team should be the Mets as they need a third baseman for the rest of the year. They need insurance for Wright’s back going forward. With the prospect of Cespedes opting out, they may need an extra carrot to entice Cespedes to once again re-sign with the Mets so he can play with his friend.
The Mets need to sign Gourriel.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
The minute there was the hint of trouble with David Wright, the popular opinion was to move Neil Walker over to third base. The concept behind the move was two-fold: (1) Walker should be able to move over to a position he played 15 games in his career; and (2) it would permit the Mets to call-up Dilson Herrera to play second base. Herrera is the Mets second baseman of the future, and it appears that the future is now. Lost in this is an analysis of how Walker’s bat would actually play at third base.
It’s easy to overlook that fact when the Mets have been trotting out Eric Campbell, Matt Reynolds, and Ty Kelly at third base. Yes, anything would be an improvement over them. However, the idea is not to simply get better; the idea is to put a team on the field that is capable of winning the World Series.
This year Walker has been terrific at the plate hitting .275/.346/.498 with 14 home runs and 28 RBI. He is definitively one of the best second baseman in the league and should garner serious consideration for the All Star Game. He is nearly in the top 10 in each and every statistical category, and he has the most home runs among second basemen. Here is how Walker would rank among National League third basemen this year:
- Hits – 7th
- Homers – 3rd
- RBI – 7th
- Average – 5th
- OBP – 8th
- Slugging – 5th
These are not awe-inspiring rankings. However, these stats show that Walker’s bat could very well play at third base this year.
Overall, you would prefer to have Walker play second base this year because he is more comfortable at the position, and he has a plus bat for the position. However, beggers can’t be choosers, and the Mets are in a position where they are begging for some offense from first and third base. If Dilson Herrera can handle being an everyday player in the majors now, it would make sense to move Walker to third as he can handle it offensively.
The real question is going to be whether he can handle it defensively. With Wilmer Flores getting hit on the hand yesterday, we may find out soon.
After the game, Terry Collins revealed Juan Lagares was scratched from the lineup because he couldn’t close his left hand. At a minimum, it seems like a DL stint is inevitable.
The natural inclination would be for the Mets to call-up Brandon Nimmo. He’s certainly earned the promotion hitting .330/.411/.529 with five homers and 32 RBI. The 23 year old 2011 first round pick appears to be ready for a promotion to the majors. He could take the place of Michael Conforto in the lineup while Conforto waits for his wrist to react to the cortisone shot.
With that said, Conforto is expected back this weekend. Once he returns, it is likely Terry Collins will play him everyday. That will leave Nimmo on the bench which would be detrimental to his development. Nimmo needs to get regular at bats, and that does not appear likely at the major league level.
However, Lagares and Conforto aren’t the only Mets that are ailing. Neil Walker had to pull himself from a game on Saturday. He hasn’t been able to play since. Tomorrow, he is going to see a back specialist to be evaluated. Given the Mets luck lately with Lucas Duda and David Wright, no one should be holding their breath.
With that in mind, the Mets should call-up Dilson Herrera.
Herrera is the second baseman of the future, and depending on Walker’s back, the future may be now. Herrera is hitting .298/.344/.517 with ten homers and 36 RBI. Like Nimmo, Herrera has earned the call-up. Unlike Nimmo, Herrera has some major league experience. Moreover, Herrera doesn’t have an obvious impediment to his playing time.
In Walker’s absence, Collins has had to pick between Matt Reynolds and Kelly Johnson. Both have played well recently, but there shouldn’t be expectations for that to continue. Reynolds is the same player who has hit .282/.335/.420 in the Pacific Coast League, which is about as favorable a hitter’s league there is. Even with his hot streak, Johnson is hitting .226/.288/.308 this year. Herrera should be an upgrade over these players.
Accordingly, Herrera should be called-up to play second until such time as Walker is ready to return. In the interim, Collins can go with either Johnson in left, like he did Wednesday, or Alejandro De Aza, who Collins wants to get more at bats. Herrera can and should effectively man second base until Walker is ready. When that happens, the Mets will do what they always do in these situations:
They will call up Eric Campbell.
However, before that happens the Mets need to call-up Herrera. He’s the best option at second base behind Walker. Additionally, in Wright’s absence, the Mets can judge whether it is time to let Herrera play second while moving Walker to third. This is an option the Mets have internally discussed. They now have a window to see if it is feasible.
It’s time to call-up Dilson Herrera.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
Last year when David Wright went on the disabled list with a serious injury, the Mets moved Daniel Murphy to third base and recalled Dilson Herrera to play second base. This year? This year, we get Neil Walker at second with a revolving door of AAAA caliber players at third base.
Now, it should be noted that Walker has been far better than anyone could’ve imagined. With his hitting .283/.345/.522 line with 13 homeruns, he’s in the midst of a career year. He’s been everything the Mets couldn’t asked for and more. With that said, he isn’t a versatile player. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets have reservations about moving Walker to an unfamiliar position.
This means Walker will remain at second while Herrera remains in the minors. That’s a problem.
Dilson Herrera is a superior player to Ty Kelly, Eric Campbell, and Matt Reynolds. He’s better than T.J. Rivera, who, for reasons unknown, is still not getting a shot. With his play this year, it’s fair to say Herrera is a superior option to Wilmer Flores. However, it doesn’t matter that Herrera is better than the four other options that have been and will continue to get playing time at third base. It doesn’t matter because there’s no room for Herrera to play second every day.
Herrera would be the second baseman right now if Murphy was here. It’s further evidence of how the Mets made a mistake by letting Murphy walk out the door. Better yet, Murphy’s in Washington helping a Nationals team that has a three game lead over the Mets in the NL East.
Walker’s been great player this year, but he’s still not a better fit for this Mets team than Murphy would’ve been. The reason is simple: No matter how good Walker plays this year, it won’t be worth having one of Flores, Reynolds, Kelly, or Campbell play third for long stretches of time.
Despite the spinal stenosis, David Wright was playing well in 2016. He was hitting .226/.350/.438 with seven homeruns and 14 RBI. He had hit homeruns in three straight games before it was discovered he had a herniated disc in his neck. It was a cruel setback for a player who has worked so hard to get back to this point. It leaves everyone questioning if this is the straw that will break the camel’s back. If it is, or if Wright needs another lengthy stint on the disabled list, the Mets are going to have to find a long term solution to third base.
Internal Options
Wilmer Flores. Going into this season, the Mets tabbed Flores to be the main backup at four infield positions. With Wright needing days off here and there due to the spinal stenosis, it was presumed Flores would play a lot of third base. At the outset, Flores appears to be the player who will get the first crack at the position. However, if he continues hitting .167/.231/.267, the Mets are going to be forced to turn in another direction.
T.J. Rivera. Eric Campbell already had his shot, and he hit .159/.270/.222 leading him to be designated for assignment. Matt Reynolds had a brief call-up and he hit .100/.182/.100 in limited duty. The revolving door has now brought us to Ty Kelly, who is hitting .167/.231/.167 in limited duty. While this triumvirate has been given the opportunities and failed to hit, Rivera stays in AAA hitting .364/.399/.535. Sooner or later, he’s going to get a shot to play in the majors with the way he has been playing.
Gavin Cecchini. The former Mets 2012 first round pick is currently hitting .308/.390/.400 in his first season in AAA. The issue is in his minor league career, Cecchini has only played SS. If he gets called up, the Mets would have to choose between playing him at a position he has never played before or making him the SS while Asdrubal Cabrera moves to third, where he has only played one inning in his major league career.
Dilson Herrera. The Mets could elect to call-up Herrera to play second while sliding their second basemen to third like they have the past few seasons. The issue here is Herrera is not raking in AAA the way he usually does, and Neil Walker hasn’t played third base regularly in his big league career, and he hasn’t played there in six years.
External Options
If you are going to make a move at this point, you are really only going to be able to obtain a player from a team that is completely out of the pennant race, or a player that has been designated for assignment. With the current two Wild Card format, a safe line of demarcation is any team 10 games or more out of first place is out of contention. Looking over the standings, that would mean the Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds (who have nothing of value), and the San Diego Padres. Of course, due consideration should be given to the Oakland Athletics, who are always ready, willing, and able to make a trade.
Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe is one of the many reasons the Twins are having a down year as he is hitting .246/.273/.369. For his career, he’s a .245/.307/.417 hitter. As such, he’s not going to resolve any of the Mets offensive problems. Also, as per UZR and DRS, he has only been an adequate defensive third baseman meaning he doesn’t have the superior defense to carry his bat.
Eduardo Nunez. The former Yankee is having a nice year for the Twins hitting .340/.367/.507 in 42 games. This year he has mostly played third and shortstop. In the event Wright does come back, Nunez can be a valuable utility player. The main issue with the 29 year old Nunez is that he will not be cheap as he still has a couple of cost controlled years before he becomes a free agent in 2018.
Kelly Johnson. Johnson was a valuable bench piece for the Mets last year hitting .250/.304/.414. The benefits are you know he can play in New York, and he should not be expensive. The downside is he’s hitting .218/.279/.307 this year.
Gordon Beckam. While Beckham has never quite lived up to the hype, he is having a good year this year as a utility player for the Braves playing second, third, and short. The career .244/.307/.374 hitter is hitting .293/.393/.446 this year for the Braves. Maybe it’s the small sample size of 30 games, maybe it’s the change to the National League, but Beckham is a better offensive player this year.
Aaron Hill. Hill is having a tremendous year as the Brewers’ third baseman this year hitting .275/.351/436. He’s also capable of played second in his career. The main sticking point with Hill is his salary. He is earning $12 million this year with the Arizona Diamondbacks paying $6.5 million of that. If the Mets were to obtain Hill, they would have to take on the prorated portion of the $5.5 million the Brewers are paying him or part with additional prospects to get the Brewers to eat some of that salary.
Brett Wallace. Wallace is a left-hand hitting third baseman. He has bounced around as he has never reached his full potential at the plate. He has also been a below average fielder wherever he has played, including third base. He seems to have found a home as a Padre these past two seasons. This year he is hitting .219/.379/.381. The issue with him is he’s still a cost-controlled player just entering his arbitration years.
Yangervis Solarte. Former Met Roger Cedeno‘s nephew, Solarte, is hitting .300/.397/.600 this year while playing mostly third base. He is a versatile player with a good bat. He is only making $525,000 this year, and he’s not arbitration eligible until 2017. If you want him, you’re going to have to pry him away from the Padres. Remember, this is the same Padres front office that rejected Michael Fulmer for Justin Upton. Solarte would be a great fit for the Mets, but it is unlikely the Mets are going to be willing to pay the price of what it’ll take to acquire him.
Ruben Tejada. Simply put, Tejada is a major league caliber player that is better suited to playing shortstop. He was a career .255/.320/.323 hitter on the Mets. He played poorly with the Cardinals hitting .176/.225/.235 before being released. He’s better suited for the bench than he is as the third base option. Even if he’s not the third base solution the Mets should claim him and put him on the bench.
Jed Lowrie. Lowrie is in the midst of a good season hitting .309/.351/.360 for the Athletics. He is capable of playing second, third, or shortstop. However, he has little power, and he is in the middle of a relatively large contract that pays him $7.5 million this year and $6 million next year with a team option/buyout in 2018.
Danny Valencia. Valencia is having a terrific year this year hitting .333/.370/.558 while playing third base for the the Athletics. He has an extremely reasonable $3.15 million salary this year. However, that is part of the problem. He has a reasonable salary this year, and he is under team control until 2018. Given the way Billy Beane does business, he will be extremely expensive.
Overall, that is the problem. If Wright is really going to miss a significant amount of time for the second straight season, the Mets are going to need a real long term solution. If the Mets enter the trade market and pay high prices for good, quality players like Solarte and Valencia. For the most part, you are looking to trade with a Brewers franchise you cancelling a trade with last year, or a Padres or Athletics team that really drives a hard bargain. That leaves the Mets in a very difficult situtation. Therefore, for the time being, the most prudent course might be to see if Flores can handle the position defensively and offensively. If he doesn’t the Mets will need to make a big trade just like they did last year. If that time should come, hopefully, they will have the pieces necessary to make that happen.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
After Terry Collins stated he doesn’t believe the prognosis of Lucas Duda‘s back is good, it has caused many to speculate on how the Mets will proceed in fulfilling the first base vacancy. Many of those thoughts are creative as the Mets may need to get creative to fill the void. Unfortunately, most of the suggestions will not work. Here’s why:
Move Michael Conforto to 1B
The thinking here is Michael Conforto was deemed to have all the tools to be a great 1B by his biggest fan – Keith Hernandez. This move would allow Juan Lagares and Alejandro De Aza to platoon in CF while moving Yoenis Cespedes to LF.
Admittedly, this sounds great. It’ll improve both the offense and the defense. However, the problem is the Mets never even sought to have Conforto to play RF. Why should we now believe they’re willing to move him to the infield mid-season. They’re not.
Move Alejandro De Aza to 1B
This one makes sense as De Aza is languishing away on the bench. He went from a platoon player to a fifth outfielder with the Cespedes signing. However, he hasn’t played there in over a decade, and he has just recently started working with Tim Teufel to get acclimated to first. He needs more than a week to get ready.
Slide David Wright to 1B
The idea here is David Wright is better suited to first now with his back and throwing issues. In actuality next to catcher, first is the last position Wright should play. The amount of twisting and stretching involved is harder on the lower back and would only exacerbate his stenosis. Furthermore, even if he could play first base, all you’ve accomplished is reshuffling the deck chairs as you’ve now moved the hole to third instead of first.
Slide Neil Walker to 1B
In this scenario, the Mets move Neil Walker to first and call up Dilson Herrera to play second. The argument is this is exactly what the Mets would do if they had Daniel Murphy.
The problem with that thinking is Walker isn’t Murphy. Walker has never played first base in the majors. He last played first in AAA in 2009 and that was only for seven games. It’s not fair to expect him to be able to slide over with no preparation. It’s also not fair to add more things to his plate while he’s in the midst of a bad slump.
Move Asdrubal Cabrera to 1B
The thought is Asdrubal Cabrera was once a utility player who is capable of playing multiple positions. In addition, the Mets have Matt Reynolds on the roster who is a SS. There are two problems here. First, Cabrera is one of the few Mets producing day in and day out. You don’t want to mess with that especially when he’s never played first. Second, Reynolds was in the middle of a slump in AAA, and he hasn’t shown any signs he’s getting out of it in his limited major league duty.
Move Kevin Plawecki to 1B
This is a holdover from Spring Training when the Mets were looking for ways to keep both of their young catchers in the lineup while letting Duda sit against lefties. Doing this now would also open up more playing time for Rene Rivera, who has shown himself to be a terrific catcher.
The problem is this really damages your offense. Kevin Plawecki has hit .203/.300/.291 this year. Rivera is a career .209/.258/.329 hitter. It’s one thing to have either one of them in the lineup. It’s a whole other thing to have both of them in the lineup.
Call Up Dom Smith
The thinking here is if the Mets don’t have the answer at the major league level, they should go into the minor leagues to solve their problems. Who better than one of, if not the, best Mets prospect. The problem is he’s just not ready. He’s only played 41 games in AA. While the obvious counter-argument is Conforto, it must be noted, Conforto was much further along in his development offensively.
Call Up Brandon Nimmo
The thought process here is Brandon Nimmo is absolutely raking in AAA right now. He’s on an eight game hitting streak that’s seen him hit .364/.462/.636 with three doubles, three triples, and six RBI. While he has played CF almost exclusively, he should be athletic enough to play first. While these are valid points, it should be noted he’s never played first, and like with Conforto, the Mets do not appear inclined to let either one play first.
Trade for Yangervis Solarte
Yangervis Solarte makes a lot of sense for the Mets. He can not only play first, but he can also play third. In his career, he’s also played at second, short, and left. In essence, he’s a much better version of Eric Campbell. In his first full major league season last year, he hit .270/.320/.428. He’s hitting .250/.379/.375 this year. This is all the more impressive when you consider he plays most of his games at Petco.
Here’s the rub. The Padres have no incentive to trade him. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2017, and he can’t become a free agent until 2020. If the Mets were inclined to even trade for Solarte, it’s going to come at a high cost, and the Mets most desirable trade assets were traded away last year. No, if the Mets do make a move your looking at the In the interim, the Mets can inquire about the Kelly Johnsons and Ike Davises of the world.
Overall, that’s the issue. The Mets don’t have what it takes right now to address the first base position internally or externally. Although, the idea of having Travis d’Arnaud work at first during his rehab assignment is intriguing given his shoulder problems and injury history (hat tip Brian Mangan). However, short of that happening, it’s more of the same for the Mets.
This means Campbell is your everyday first baseman until Flores comes off the DL. At that point, the Mets will probably go with Flores until Duda is healthy. Ultimately, Duda needs to be the answer there because in reality any other solution is unrealistic or just a question mark.
At what point does T.J. Rivera finally get his shot?
In his minor league career, Rivera has hit everywhere he’s gone. In his minor league career, he’s hit .320/.367/.423. For the past three years, he’s played Winter Ball hitting .307/.361/.445. Bottom line is Rivera has hit everywhere he has played in his entire minor league career. He had gotten better each and every year. For example, he’s hitting .330/.360/.524 in Triple-A right now.
Even with Rivera hitting so well and improving, it seems like the undrafted 27 year old may never get his shot.
He didn’t last year. The Mets were more comfortable with a struggling Dilson Herrera. They were more comfortable with Danny Muno. They didn’t protect him in the Rule 5 draft despite his offensive production. The Mets were able to keep him because no one thought he was worthy of a Rule 5 pick. Seeing what the Braves put on the field, it makes you question what are we missing with Rivera?
There is a tendency to scout a player’s minor league statistics. The belief is that if a player can hit in the minors, they can hit in the majors. The inverse of that is deemed to be true as well. However, there are many more factors at play like level of competition, approach at the plate, level of experience and age compared to the competition, etc. When taking a totality of the circumstances, a player who hits well in the minors but isn’t deemed good enough to hit in the majors is tagged as a AAAA player.
Is that the case with Rivera? Is he really just a AAAA player? That would be the most logical explanation as to why he still hasn’t gotten his shot.
To answer that, we need to look at what he is. Rivera is a utility player that can play second, third and short. In reality, given his range and arm strength, he’s best suited to second base. Overall, no matter where you play him, he’s not that great defensively. Despite his relative versatility, it’s Rivera’s bat that would carry him to the majors.
As discussed above, Rivera has hit everywhere. There’s good reason for that. He’s a disciplined hitter. He has a good compact swing, and he’s a gap to gap line drive hitter. He doesn’t generate much power, but he’s capable of the occasional double. In short, Rivera shows the skills to be able to get on base no matter what the level.
What we don’t know if that ability will ever translate. At the major league level, the Mets have Wilmer Flores and Eric Campbell. Campbell, in particular, is what Rivera aspires to be. Campbell can play a multitude of positions. He doesn’t generate much power, but he has shown the ability to get on base. So long as Campbell gets on base, the Mets aren’t sending him down.
In the event Campbell ever gets sent down, it’s highly unlikely Rivera ever gets the call. He’s buried at the upper levels of the Mets minor league system behind guys like Herrera, Matt Reynolds, and Gavin Cecchini. Worse yet, Rivera isn’t on the 40 man roster thereby further decreasing his chances of ever getting a shot.
Unfortunately, it appears Rivera may never get his shot with the Mets. He may never get an opportunity to show he has the tools to hit and get on base in the major leagues. It’s a testament to a deep Mets farm system. It’s an indictment of the rest of baseball, who apply AAAA tags to players without ever giving them a chance that they’ve earned.
T.J. Rivera has earned a shot to play in the major leagues. Hopefully, he will get that shot someday.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
Last year, the Mets saw lengthy absences from David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud. Daniel Murphy and Michael Cuddyer were nicked up most of the year. Other Mets players got bumps and bruises along the way. The Mets depth got tested early and often in 2015, and it was ugly.
Dilson Herrera and Kevin Plawecki showed they weren’t ready to hit major league pitching. For his part, Plawecki had to stay in the lineup because Anthony Recker and Johnny Monell weren’t either. Eric Campbell and John Mayberry, Jr. showed why they weren’t everyday players, let alone middle of the order bats. There were other forgettable debuts from players like Darrell Ceciliani and Danny Muno. In 2015, the Mets bet against their farm system, and it nearly cost them the season.
In the offseason, the Mets made sure to build a deeper roster. They moved Wilmer Flores to a utility role. Alejandro De Aza is here as a fifth outfielder. Juan Lagares is a part time player who will start against lefties and come on as a late defensive replacement. Herrera is back in AAA where he belongs for now. Campbell and Plawecki are on the 25 man roster, but they are asked to do much less. Hypothetically, it’s a much deeper team.
Well, that hypothesis is now being put to the test.
Yoenis Cespedes has been dealing with a thigh issue due to his jumping in the stands and an awkward slide. As for now, he’s not DL bound. Yesterday, d’Arnaud left the game early with pain in his throwing shoulder. While he may not have been the best at throwing out would be base stealers, his throws were uncharacteristically poor. He will be examined today before a DL decision is made. Whether it will be one day, one week, one month, or more, the Mets will miss Cespedes and d’Arnaud.
No matter how much time if will be, this Mets team is better built to sustain these losses. Having a De Aza/Lagares platoon is a much better option than Ceciliani. Plawecki has another year of development under his belt. Hopefully, this translates to him having a better year at the plate.
The Mets better hope so. The Nationals look like a different team than they were a year ago. The Mets aren’t going to be able to coast for two – three months with subpar players. This is a new year. Fortunately, this is a new Mets team that’s built for just these types of situations.