Daniel Murphy
To be fair to Terry Collins, he had a number of fine decisions yesterday. He went to Jerry Blevins to strike out Daniel Murphy to preserve the 4-3 extra inning win.
Collins also played a hunch starting T.J. Rivera at second. Rivera was the Mets offense last night, and he was the biggest reason the Mets won. Rivera made two nice defensive plays in the field, but it was his bat that was the difference. He was 3-4 with three RBI and a game winning homer against Mark Melancon.
These heroics were in part due to Collins’ insistence on playing Jay Bruce.
Since joining the Mets, Bruce is hitting .190/.271/.317 with four homers and 11 RBI. He’s gone from the major league RBI leader to just another Met not able to hit with runners in scoring position. He’s gone from an RBI machine in Cincinnati to a near automatic out.
Yesterday was more of the same from Bruce. He was 0-4 with a walk leaving three runners on base.
Since the rosters were expanded on September 1st, with .212/.297/.394 with two homers and five RBI. That coincidentally is the same time Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo were called-up to the majors. When they were called up, Conforto was hitting .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI, hitting both righties and lefties, in his most recent demotion to the minors. Nimmo was hitting .407/.474/.651 with four homers and 14 RBI in the month of August before he was re-called.
Conforto and Nimmo were hot at the plate, and yet, Collins didn’t care. He was going to play Bruce no matter what. Conceptually, you understand it because Bruce was the big bat the Mets added at the deadline. The cost of adding Bruce was Dilson Herrera. You want to get him going to help your chances of going to the postseason, and hopefully, the World Series. Collins is relying on his proven track record. The only problem is that track record isn’t what people think it is.
For his career, Bruce is a .247/.318/.466 hitter averaging 26 homers and 81 RBI. Over the prior three seasons, Bruce has been a .237/.303/.433 hitter with 25 homers and 87 RBI. Keep in mind, Bruce has been hitting in the Great American Ballpark which is a hitter’s ballpark. Bruce has been a low OBP hitter who has been a slightly better than average home run hitter.
Worse yet, he’s poor defensively. In fact, he is the Mets worst defensive outfielder. Playing Bruce moves Curtis Granderson to center field. Granderson isn’t a center fielder anymore. Playing Bruce keeps Alejandro De Aza on the bench, and De Aza is the Mets best defensive center fielder. By the way, Conforto has acquitted himself well in center, and he has shown himself to be a player capable of being a much better offensive player than Bruce.
So overall, on a night were Collins made a number of decisions that helped the team win, his insistence on playing Bruce continues to hamper the team offensively and defensively.
When perusing the lineup, it was surprising to see T.J. Rivera‘s name in the lineup instead of Kelly Johnson with the right hander starting. Rivera would justify Collins’ faith in him going 3-4 with his first major league homer and three RBI. He would also rob Daniel Murphy of a base hit with a nice play in the first.
Things had started out well with Noah Syndergaard on the mound. Tonight, he continued to make his Cy Young case in striking out his 200th batter of the season and dominating the Nationals.
Thor’a final line was seven innings, four hits, one run, one earned, one walk, and 10 strikeouts. He had his dominant stuff working throwing his hardest slider in the second half.
The only run he allowed was off a Wilson Ramos opposite field double. Ramos only had a chance to hit it as Thor took a little off his fastball there. It was thrown at 98 MPH.
Aside from that double, Thor had everything working. He wouldn’t get the win because the Mets couldn’t generate enough offense.
Asdrubal Cabrera continued his second half tear. He doubled in his first two at bats, and even on a hobbled knee, he would steal third after each double. It was heads up base running as he took advantage of the Nationals shifting with Curtis Granderson at the plate.
In true Mets fashion, they would strand him there in the first. However, in the third, T.J. Rivera took advantage of the RBI opportunity much in the same way he’s taken advantage of every opportunity he’s ever been given by this Mets organization. Rivera’s RBI single would tie the score at one. Rivera would be heard from again.
In the fifth, Yoenis Cespedes would start the game winning rally with a single off Nationals starter A.J. Cole. Granderson brought him home with an RBI triple. Rivera then brought him home with a sacrifice fly.
With the seven innings from Thor, and the two run lead, the game was effectively over. Addison Reed pitched a scoreless eighth, putting Jeurys Familia in position to recorded his 49th save of the season to tie Jose Valverde for the most saves in a single season by a Dominican born pitcher.
It didn’t happen as Familia was abandoned by his defense.
Murphy just beat out an infield base hit bringing Bryce Harper to the plate. Familia did his job getting Harper to ground to Jose Reyes. With no play at second on Murphy, Reyes went to first throwing wide of the bag. James Loney, who never stretches, also apparently never comes off the bag.
Instead of Murphy and second with one out, the Nationals had runners on second and third with no outs. Anthony Rendon hit a single past the diving Reyes. On the play, Reyes did not show much range. The Nationals then tied the game on a Ramos infield single.
At this point, the wheels were unravelling, and it appeared to be a near certainty the Mets were going to lose. There were runners on first and second with no outs. Familia bore down. He first got Ryan Zimmerman to hit a weak liner to Loney. Clint Robinson then hit a sinking line drive to Rivera, who nabbed it just before it hit the dirt. Not taking chances, he flipped to Rivera for a 4-6-3 double play.
The game was tied at three making it a brand new ballgame. Rivera would untie it in the 10th with his first career home run off Mark Melancon.
It put the capper on what was a terrific game for the undrafted Rivera. Tonight, he showed everyone the guile and talent that took him from non-prospect status to an important contributor for a playoff team.
Fernando Salas then came on to close it out in the bottom of the 10th. One of the reasons why he the Mets got him was his closing experience. He got so close too by making quick work of the first two batters. However, Jayson Werth would bloop one in, and Terry Collins wouldn’t take any chances.
Collins went to the former National Jerry Blevins to get the former Met Murphy. For what it’s worth, Murphy has trouble with Blevins:
Murphy was telling me at All Star Game he just has trouble seeing the ball out of Blevins' hand
— Kevin Kernan (@AMBS_Kernan) September 14, 2016
Blevins would then get a huge strikeout of Murphy recording his first save as a Met giving the Mets a 4-3 victory.
With that, the Mets get back in the win column and have a chance to get some breathing room in the Wild Card race with the Cardinals currently losing.
Game Notes: Wilmer Flores is still unable to go with a neck injury.
Pick your reason why the Mets lost this game.
The first and obvious one was Rafael Montero. Montero’s final line was 1.2 innings, five hits, six runs, six earned, four walks, and two strikeouts. He probably wasn’t even that good either.
The sequence that perfectly sums up the night Montero had, as well as his Mets career, was his walking Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos with the bases loaded in the first inning.
Remarkably, Collins saw those 37 pitches and thought, “I want to see more of that!” Actually, you know what, it wasn’t all that surprising. Collins passed over a chance to hit for him in the second inning so he could get two more outs out of Montero before going to a rested Gabriel Ynoa or Sean Gilmartin. They’d eventually come into the game along with the other long man Logan Verrett.
For what it’s worth, Ynoa was roughed up as well pitching two innings allowing three hits, two runs, two earned, and two walks with one strikeout.
If Jacob deGrom or Steven Matz cannot come back quickly, the Mets are in trouble because they cannot keep doing this three more times this season. They probably can’t afford to do this even one more time.
Through Montero’s horrendous outing, you lose just how bad the Mets offense was. It’s quite easy to forget the Mets had a 1-0 lead with Yoenis Cespedes hitting an RBI groundout to score Jose Reyes, who had led off the game with a double. After that, the Mets did nothing against Mat Latos and the Nationals bullpen.
In fact, with Latos homering off Montero to lead off the second, he allowed as many runs as he knocked in. The only reason he didn’t get the win is he left the game early due to injury.
The Mets didn’t deserve to win this one, and they didn’t look like a team that was fighting for a Wild Card. To rub salt in the wound, Daniel Murphy was 3-5 with a double. Meanwhile, Neil Walker is done for the season with back surgery, and no one knows when Wilmer Flores can play again.
At least Kyle Hendricks took care of business against the Cardinals to keep the Mets a half game ahead of them in the Wild Card race.
Tonight, there were only two Mets who played well in a huge series against the Washington Nationals – Asdrubal Cabrera and Noah Syndergaard. It wasn’t enough.
Cabrera homered off Nationals starter A.J. Cole in the fourth to narrow the gap to 2-1. Overall, Cabrera was 2-3 with the homer and a walk. Jay Bruce was the only other Met to get a hit off of Cole.
In reality, the Mets did nothing against a young pitcher who has struggled in his limited major league appearances. In his five major league appearances, he was 0-1 with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.318 WHIP. At 24 years old, he’s still just a prospect who could conceivably break out at any time. However, he’s really seen as a mid to back of the rotation guy. This was just another case of the disappearing Mets offense.
It is a shame too because it spoiled a very good Syndergaard start. Syndergaard’s final line was seven innings, three hits, two runs, two earned, one walk, and four strikeouts. Seeing that line, it begs the question – how did the Nationals score two runs with only four baserunners and no extra base hits.
Simple, Syndergaard cannot hold base runners.
In the first, Trea Turner led off the game with a single. He then proceeded to steal second AND third. No, Travis d’Arnaud wasn’t catching; it was Rene Rivera showing yet again the stolen base issue lies with the starting pitchers. Turner would then score on a Bryce Harper sacrifice fly. Daniel Murphy would also steal a base in the inning, but he would not score.
In the fourth, Harper hit a one out double, and he stole third. That set up yet another sacrifice fly. This time it was Wilson Ramos.
Just like that, the Nationals “manufactured” both of their runs. They got the guys on, got them over, and got them in. It’s something the Mets offense has struggled with all year.
The Mets would have one chance to tie the game in the seventh.
Marc Rzepczynski (your guess is as good as mine as to whether that is spelled correctly) relieved Cole, and he made quick work of Curtis Granderson and Kelly Johnson. Rzepczynski would then issue a free pass to Rivera, and he would plunk d’Arnaud.
At that point, Terry Collins and Dusty Baker would go to their benches. Collins would tab Ty Kelly to pinch run for Rivera. Baker would bring in Koda Glover (definitely no relation to Danny or Donald) to pitch to Jose Reyes making sure Reyes was hitting from his much weaker side. Glover would blow a 98 MPH fastball past Reyes to end the inning.
But, hey, Reyes did this to a ball earlier in the game:
The game was then out if reach in the ninth before the Mets would bat. Jerry Blevins started the inning to face the left-handed Murphy and Harper. A single and a double later, and Collins turned to Hansel Robles. Robles immediately gave up a two RBI single to Anthony Rendon making it a 4-1 game.
What we all observed was the difference between the 2015 and 2016 Nationals. The Nationals have a manger that has a reputation in bringing out the best in his guys. They also gave a much better bullpen. During the stretch run last year, they had Jonathan Papelbon. This year it’s Mark Melancon.
It’s a huge difference. It’s the difference between losing the division by seven games and having a 10.5 game division lead. Well, that and having Murphy.
Game Notes: Even with the righty on the mound, James Loney would sit, and Wilmer Flores played first. Michael Conforto did not start, but he made a PH appearance in the ninth. Fernando Salas pitched another scoreless inning.
Pennant Race: The Pirates lost 1-0 to the Brewers. The Marlins are lost 6-2 to the Indians. The Cardinals lost 3-2 to the Reds.
Recently, Neil Walker has been the hottest hitter in all of baseball. Over his last 19 games, Walker is hitting .455/.488/.740 with two doubles, one triple, six homers, and 14 RBI. He is making last year’s version of Yoenis Cespedes look like Mario Mendoza. For a Mets team that is struggling to get above .500, let alone be relevant in the Wild Card race, the team can ill afford to lose his bat especially with injuries to players like Asdrubal Cabrera and the aforementioned Cespedes.
And yet, that is exactly what is going to happen. Neil Walker’s wife is expecting to deliver the couple’s first child – a daughter. Walker keeps his cell phone close waiting for the notice saying, “I’ll pretty much have my phone on me everywhere but second base. You try to bottle up those three hours any way you can. In between at-bats, I’ll shoot in [the clubhouse] just to check my phone and make sure nothing is going on.” (MLB.com).
Once that happens, Walker is on the next flight out to New York as he intends to take paternity leave. He is going on paternity leave with full knowledge that his team needs his bat in the lineup, and that his taking time off may have an impact on his production. Walker joked, “Obviously, when you are swinging the bat well, you want to continue to get as many at-bats as possible, but I certainly am not going to go blaming my newborn if I don’t stay on fire. I’ll be mentally taking at-bats.” No matter what happens with Walker’s bat, he is doing the right thing by going to be by his wife’s side.
What is bizarre is that someone actually had to say that.
Back in 2014, when the Mets weren’t expected to go anywhere, Walker’s predecessor, Daniel Murphy, took paternity leave, and he was outright chastised. Boomer Esiason, a former New York athlete himself, said, “Bottom line, that’s not me. I wouldn’t do that. Quite frankly, I would have said ‘C-section before the season starts. I need to be at Opening Day. I’m sorry, this is what makes our money, this is how we’re going to live our life, this is going to give my child every opportunity to be a success in life.” (Boston.com). Obviously Boomer wasn’t the only one to chastise Murphy, but he was one of the few that had the audacity to challenge both Murphy’s commitment to the team while instructing Murphy’s wife how she should deliver their baby.
Lost in the shuffle was the fact that Murphy’s wife needed to have surgery. As Murphy would say, “It’s going to be tough for her to get up to New York for a month. I can only speak from my experience — a father seeing his wife — she was completely finished. I mean, she was done. She had surgery and she was wiped. Having me there helped a lot, and vice versa, to take some of the load off. … It felt, for us, like the right decision to make.” (ESPN.com).
A husband needs to be there for his wife because you never know what will go wrong. We were reminded of that this year with Jacob deGrom.
Back in April, deGrom found himself on the Bereavement/Family Medical Emergency List as his newborn son had difficulty breathing with apnea. The deGrom family went through the harrowing process of not knowing if their child was healthy. At the time, deGrom was home to not only be there for his wife emotionally, but also to spend time with his son Jaxon. Fortunately, deGrom’s son would be alright allowing him to put in the work he needed to for the baseball season.
Fortunately, Murphy’s wife and deGrom’s son were ultimately okay. During that time, Murphy and deGrom got to spend time with their families that desperately needed them home. But that’s not the only reason for the paternity leave.
The birth of your child is the greatest experience of your life. It certainly was for me. In fact, each day with my son is better than the next. No father should be robbed of that experience. Not me, not you, and not Neil Walker.
Furthermore, your wife needs you. There are no words to describe what your wife goes through not just during pregnancy, but also during labor. Her reward after that grueling experience? She has to feed a baby every two hours followed by burping and changing the baby. By the way, she also has to find some time to sleep. She needs all the help she can get, even if it is just a day or two with her husband.
Walker making the decision to remove himself from the lineup at a time the Mets need him most does not make him a bad teammate, it makes him a good husband and father. Walker’s place is with his family. It is his teammates job to pick him up during his absence the way Walker picked them up in April and over the course of August.
For the second straight year, it appears that the Mets have been snakebitten. They have lost Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, and David Wright to season ending injuries. It would be easy to blame injuries like these as well as the other injuries the Mets have had for the team underachieving this season. There’s just one problem with that – the Mets have been amongst the healthiest teams in all of baseball.
According to Spotrac, the Mets rank 15th in the majors and 8th in the National League with the team having placed 13 players on the disabled list. With those 13 players on the disabled list, the Mets have missed 549 player days, which ranks 23rd in the majors and 12th in the National League.
Now, there are some fair criticisms in pointing just to the disabled list figures. First, as we have seen with the Mets handling of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets wait too long before putting a player on the disabled list. Second, this list does not account for players like Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard who are pitching despite having bone spurs in their elbows which will have to be surgically removed in the offseason. However, this point-of-view is a bit myopic when considering the injuries the Mets main competition for the two Wild Card spots have endured.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The 63-49 Dodgers currently have the top Wild Card spot by four games. They have also put a major league leading 25 players on the disabled list while losing a major league leading 1,400 player days.
Brett Anderson was gone for the season before he threw a pitch, Hyun-Jin Ryu only made one start, and Alex Wood lasted just 10 starts. That’s 3/5 of the Dodgers Opening Day rotation up in smoke. On top of that, the Dodgers have lost important bullpen pieces in Yimi Garcia and Chin-hui Tsao.
The Dodgers have also been decimated in the outfield. Valuable fourth outfielder and bench bat Andre Ethier was also gone before the season started. He was needed more than usual considering the Dodgers finally released Carl Crawford, had to deal with Yasiel Puig not producing, and recently losing the pleasantly surprising Trayce Thompson in the outfield.
All of this pales in comparison to the Dodgers losing Clayton Kershaw to the disabled list. Kershaw was once again dominating, was the presumptive Cy Young Award winner, and quite possibly an MVP candidate. With his back injury, no one can be quite sure when he will return. There is no more damaging blow to any team in all of baseball than the Dodgers losing Kershaw.
And yet, the Dodgers keep winning games, and that is why they find themselves the current Wild Card leader.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have put one fewer player on the disabled list than the Mets, but they have also lost 174 more player days to the disabled list. Like the Dodgers, they are also ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card Standings.
The biggest injury the Cardinals have had to deal with is their starting shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Offseason surgery to repair a ligament in his left thumb has limited him to 36 games this season. When he has played, he has been largely ineffective. Initially, the Cardinals opted to go with Mets cast-off Ruben Tejada as Peralta’s short term replacment, but he was inffective and wounded up on the disabled list himself. His replacement, Aledmys Diaz was having a terrific rookie season which led to him being named an All Start. However, he is now on the disabled list with a hairline fracture in this thumb.
The Cardinals have also had a number of key position player injuries. During the season, the Cardinals have placed Brandon Moss and Tommy Pham on the disabled list at points during the season. This has left the team looking to find solutions at first base and center field during the season.
The Cardinals pitching staff has also been hit hard. Lance Lynn went from a member of the rotation to losing the entire 2016 season to Tommy John surgery. Closer Trevor Rosenthal has been dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness all year, and he has finally wound up on the disabled list. One of his key set-up men, Jordan Walden, has yet to throw a pitch all season due to a shoulder strain and a lat injury. The team also had to deal with losing key relievers from last season, Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist, for a stretch of time.
Recently, they had Michael Wacha and Matt Holliday go down with what could be season ending injuries.
Despite these injuries, the Cardinals are 2.5 games up on the Mets this season in the Wild Card standings.
National League East
It is interesting to note that the two teams the Mets are chasing in the National League East, the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals, are two of the healthiest teams in all of baseball.
For the Marlins part, it seems to be a combination of good luck and youth. Seven of the eight Marlins everyday players are 28 and younger. The two 28 year olds, Justin Bour (ankle sprain) and Dee Gordon (PED suspension) are the only players from the starting lineup to be placed on the disabled list this season.
Other than Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins pitching staff has been remarkably healthy. Most importantly, Jose Fernandez has been the dominant starting pitcher he was always supposed to be.
The Nationals being so health is quite remarkable. Each and every season, players like Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman were usually good for at least one disabled list stint during the course of the season. So far this year, Starsburg had a short stint on the disabled list, and Zimmerman just landed on the disabled list with a wrist contusion.
The reason why the Nationals are in a much better place injury wise is part luck, but it is mostly them doing things differently. They created a larger and a multi disciplined medical team of experts to address injuries. They have addressed each and every aspect of player preparation and health. The result so far is a much healthier Nationals team both on and off the field.
The Nationals changing how they have approached injuries show how other teams have adapted and dealt with injuries better than the Mets – so have the other teams competing for the two Wild Card spots. The Mets aren’t trailing in the Wild Card race due to their health. In fact, they may still be in the race because the Dodgers and Cardinals have had to deal with more injuries than they have.
Coming into the season, the Mets were high on Dilson Herrera, and they viewed him as the second baseman of the near future. It is why the Mets let postseason hero Daniel Murphy walk, and they eschewed other long term free agent options to trade for Neil Walker who was a year away from free agency. However, the Mets made it perfectly clear they were willing to forego Herrera as the second baseman of the future if the right player came along. That is why the Mets doggedly pursued Ben Zobrist in the offseason. For the right piece or for the right price, the Mets were going to move on from Herrera to make the team better.
It is just hard to believe that player was Jay Bruce.
There is a lot to like about Bruce. He is a traditional slugger who is leading the league in RBI. He has a very affordable team option. He is insurance against Yoenis Cespedes missing an extended period of time this year, and quite possibly insurance against him leaving in free agency. He also helps with a sluggish Mets offense and with the Mets inability to hit with runners for scoring position. He is also more of the same.
This is a Mets team full of low OBP, high slugging outfielders – Bruce, Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto. With the exception of Cespedes, all of the Mets current outfield options are left-handed batters. What this team doesn’t have is a center fielder. Currently, the best defensive center fielder on the team is Alejandro De Aza. While he is the team’s hottest hitter and best defender, it is hard to imagine he is going to be an everyday player while the team sits one of Granderson or Conforto everyday. In sum, Bruce is a nice offensive upgrade, but he doesn’t solve the teams problems. With that in mind, it seems like Herrera was a steep price to pay for someone that doesn’t solve what ails the team.
It’s also selling low on Herrera in what has been a tough year for him. Herrera has gone from a .327/.382/.511 hitter to a .276/.327/.462 hitter in AAA this year. He has had nagging shoulder issues, and he has fallen into some bad habits at the plate. It has been the first time the 22 year old has struggled at the minor league level. However, given the fact that he is still young for his level, and the fact that his struggles are closely associated with an injury, there is every reason to believe Herrera will rebound and become the All Star second baseman the Mets envisioned he would become. That is a steep price to pay for a duplicative player that does not solve the Mets problems.
We are just seeing it now with Michael Fulmer in Detroit. Fulmer was the big time prospect the Mets traded last year. He is the leading Rookie of the Year contender, and he is certainly in the Cy Young conversation with him going 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP. With each and every dominant start, it is a stark reminder how much the Mets need him this year with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery and Zack Wheeler being well behind schedule to return to the rotation. Overall, the idea behind trading Fulmer was to trade from depth to acquire a missing piece . . . a missing piece that was an imperfect fit. As we see last year, the Mets supposed depth was an allusion.
Now, the Mets did trade from depth with Herrera. Gavin Cecchini could move from shortstop to second, which now seems to be his destiny with the meteoric rise of Amed Rosario. Wilmer Flores could move over there next year. The Mets could always re-sign Neil Walker or another free agent or make another trade. Depending on David Wright‘s health, Jose Reyes could move from third to second. There are any number of factors at play, but as we see again this year, the Mets can never have enough depth as this team seems more snakebitten than any other team in the majors. With that in mind, the Mets are now less deep at second base, and they are quite possibly without their best second base option for next year.
The Mets traded away another big time prospect for another slugging corner outfielder. Hopefully, Bruce will have a similar effect on the Mets as Cespedes did last year. The Mets are going to need that type of performance to help them get back to the postseason. They are going to need that type of performance to help Mets fans forget about the player they gave away in Herrera.
Last year, the Mets parted with number of pitching prospects in a drive to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2006. Over the course of this past year, we have seen some of them actually pitching in the major leagues:
- In 16 starts for the Detroit Tigers, Michael Fulmer is 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP. He is the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year Award, and he should receive some Cy Young Award votes at the end of the season.
- The Tigers traded Luis Cessa in the offseason to the New York Yankees. Cessa has pitched briefly out of the bullpen for the Yankees this year. In his six appearances, he has pitched 13.2 innings going 1-0 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.244 WHIP.
- The Atlanta Braves do not seem quite sure what to make of John Gant and his quirky delivery, but they seem to be convinced he’s a major league caliber pitcher. Out of the bullpen, Gant has made seven appearances with no record, a 6.17 ERA, and a 1.714 WHIP. As a starter, Gant has performed considerably better going 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP.
As we know, the Mets got Yoenis Cespedes for Fulmer and Cessa. Gant was part of a trade that netted the Mets Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson. The Mets also made trades of varying success to obtain Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, and Eric O’Flaherty. Overall, the Mets gave up valuable pieces to obtain major league players that helped them win the National League Pennant.
As of right now, the Mets are in a similar situation to where they were last season. They need to assess what they need (starter, reliever, and right handed bat off the bench) and what they are willing to trade to obtain those pieces. Sooner or later, the right player is going to come along, and the Mets are going to have to decide whether to trade next year’s Fulmer for this year’s Cespedes. The issue becomes who do you and who do you not trade. Here is a look at the Mets top prospects teams are sure to be inquiring about.
Each and every team is going to inquire on Rosario, and the answer time and time again is going to be no. It’s for good reason as well. When the Mets signed him out of the Dominican Republic, his defense was seen as a given, but there were concerns about his bat. Rosario has put many of those concerns to bed by hitting .321/.372/.464 with 19 doubles, 12 triples, three homers and 56 RBI between St. Lucie and Binghamton. He was a Florida State Leauge All Star, on the Team World Roster for the Future’s Game, and he was named MLB.com‘s 18th best prospect. Unless you are talking a Mike Trout trade, Rosario is off the table.
This is where things start to get a little interesting as Smith has really taken off since Rosario joined him in AA hitting .336/.398/.626 with five doubles, one triples, eight homers and 27 RBI. Smith is starting to show the power that could take him from a very good prospect to an elite prospect with the ranks of Rosario. Already, Smith is a plus defender at first base, and he has the ability to drive the ball gap-to-gap. If you trade him, you could be trading away the next John Olerud or worse if his power game continues to develop. If you keep him, you risk him becoming the next James Loney. Yes, Loney has been a quality major league first baseman, but Loney should never be what stands between you and getting an All Star or difference maker at the trade deadline that could put the team over the top.
It seems that since Herrera came to the Mets in the Marlon Byrd trade, he was touted as the Mets second baseman of the future. He was someone who could handle the position well defensively while being a real force at the plate. He showed that he has unique power for the position. Due to injuries in 2014, the Mets brought him up from AA to play in the majors. Last year, he was seen as an offensive spark when a number of players went down due to injury. This year he hasn’t been a consideration at all. He has struggled in AAA hitting .277/.331/.471 in the Pacific Coast League which is a hitter’s league. Part of that might be teams figuring him out. Part of that may be him dealing with a shoulder injury sapping him of some of his offensive ability and having him fall into bad habits at the plate. He is less patient at the plate, and he is lunging for balls he wouldn’t last year. If you move him, you are moving the guy that could be a multiple time All Star. If you don’t, you just might be hanging onto a guy that may never figure it out.
Cecchini is in a tough position in the Mets organization. He isn’t seen as good a prospect at short as Rosario, and he has had some trouble handling the position at Cashman Field, who has an infield that is not kind to infielders. He’s a good hitter hitting .315/.392/.441 with 18 doubles, two triples, five homers, and 40 RBI, and he reminds you of a right-handed Daniel Murphy at the plate. However, he is not considered as good of an offensive prospect as an Herrera. Furthermore, his bat does not have the power profile that would play at third or the outfield. By many accounts, Cecchini will play in the majors one day. What you don’t know is what he will be. Will he be the next Murphy at the plate with similar defensive versatility? With that in mind, will he develop power as he gets older and fills out like Murphy did? Will he turn into the next Matt Reynolds – a major league utility player? Again, you don’t want to lose the next Murphy for a rental, but you also don’t want to miss out on someone because you wnated to keep another Reynolds or Joe McEwing type of player.
Most Mets fans would jump at the opportunity to trade him. He hasn’t hit at all in the majors despite given extended looks on two different occassions. However, Plawecki has been a good defensive catcher and pitch framer. He was also once considered a prospect who could push Travis d’Arnaud for playing time. Keep in mind that since his demotion, Plawecki is hitting .291/.347/.512 with four doubles, five homers, and 21 RBI in 27 games. These numbers aren’t exciting, especially in the Pacific Coast League, but it shows he is starting to become more patient at the plate and more selective swinging at pitches. Also keep in mind that catcher is a position that players tend to develop later in their careers than other positions. Plawecki could still very well be the Mets catcher of the future, or he could be a solid backup. He may not be the type of player who should hold up a deal, but he definitively is a player you want to protect if at all possible.
Ultimately, it seems like one of the aforementioned players are going to have to be traded if the Mets want to acquire an impact player like Jonathan Lucroy. However, they need to be very careful about which one.
In an ideal world, Rosario and Smith are non-starters. These are two players who are excelling in AA at a young age, and they appear primed to contribute to the Mets sooner than expected. You do not ever want to give up a Rosario or a Smith. These players should prove to be fixtures in the Mets lineup for ten plus years. Still, you’re going to have to give up someone if you are going to want to add that last piece who could put the Mets over the top in 2016.
That piece appears to be between Herrera and Cecchini. The Mets may very well have a preference between these two players, and coming into this season, it seemed like Herrera. However, that does not mean they still feel the same way, nor does it mean that other teams think similarly. Regardless of how the Mets feel, a team may force their hand to trade one or the other to hopefully trade for this year’s version of Yoenis Cespedes. In the end, it seems like the Mets will be giving up a Herrera or a Cecchini like they did with Fulmer last year if they want to make a move.
The hope is that the player has the impact Cespedes did last year and that the Mets take the next step and win the 2016 World Series.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Minors
Over the past month, Alejandro De Aza has completely turned his season around. He has been unrecognizable in July hitting .333/.484/.500 with a double, a home run, and an RBI. With De Aza being and useful and productive player, it seems like anything is possible including but not limited to Antonio Bastardo becoming a competent part of the Mets bullpen. Yes, even that. And it has happened.
In Bastardo’s has 10 appearances, he has pitched 12 effective innings. Over this stretch, he has a 2.25 ERA and a 0.833 WHIP. Batters are only hitting .205/.222/.341 against him. This is a completely different pitcher than the one who pitched to a 5.46 ERA and a 1.618 WHIP over his first 29 appearances that saw batters hit a whopping .261/.372/.443 off of him. He has gone from a guy Terry Collins justifiably buried in the bullpen necessitating the Mets to seek out a reliever on the trade market to a potentially valuable piece in the bullpen. What has happened?
As strange as this may sound for a pitcher on the Mets, Bastardo has benefitted from throwing his slider more frequently. Coming into this season, Bastardo had used his slider 31% of the time, and it proved to be a plus pitch for him. Batters didn’t make much contact off the pitch swinging and missing 44.46% of the time. When a batter was able to put the bat on Bastardo’s slider, it usually resulted in weak contact with the batters having a .168 batting average and isolated power of .091. For whatever reason, Bastardo has shied away from this pitch in the beginning of 2016.
To start the season, Bastardo’s slider usage rate dropped from 31% to 24%. Instead, Bastardo began to throw more changeups, which is a very bad idea. Over his career, batters tee off on Bastardo’s changeup hitting .375 off the pitche with a .609 slugging percentage. Essentially, every batter turns into Babe Ruth when they get a chance to hit Bastardo’s changeup. In reality, there is no reason for Bastardo to ever throw his changeup especially when you consider that batters see it coming. Over his career, batters swing and miss only 26% of the time. Overall, batters aren’t fooled by the pitch, and they do some real damage when they make contact. Over Bastardo’s last 10 appearances, he is still throwing way too many changeups, and the pitch is still being hit hard and frequently. However, he is able to compensate for that by throwing more sliders.
In what has been Bastardo’s best stretch of the season his slider usage rate is back up to 33%. He is still generating similar swing and miss numbers (39.13%), and batters are still unable to do anything with the pitch hitting .125 off the pitch with an isolated power of .000.
Perhaps more important than the pitch selection is the fact that Bastardo is throwing strikes. The main issue with Bastardo has always been control, and those issues were really prominent to begin the year. In his first 29 appearances, Bastardo was averaging 5.5 walks per nine innings. He was only throwing strikes 60% of the time. Now, he’s getting the ball over the plate throwing strikes 70% of the time. He has only walked one batter over the last 12 innings. With him throwing his slider more frequently, and getting the pitch over the plate, he has become a more effective pitcher. He has become the pitcher the Mets thought they were getting when they signed him to a two year $12 million contract in the offseason. So is he back?
It might be too early to say. We have seen some flashes here and there only to be disappointed once again. The Mets have only used him ONCE over this stretch to get some batters out in a close game. That resulted in Bastardo allowing Daniel Murphy to hit a home run off of him to make it an 8-7 game. Other than that, Bastardo has been used mostly in blowouts and to preserve the bullpen arms when the Mets have been behind. While Bastardo is pitching much more effectively, it is difficult to determine if he’s ready to once again pitch in a pressure filled situation with the game on the line.
With that in mind, the Mets should keep their current 7-8-9 combination as Hansel Robles–Addison Reed–Jeurys Familia. If Bastardo keeps pitching well, he could crack that group for a night or two to give one of those guys a breather. He could also be called on to get big outs in the sixth inning. That could be his role, and he can do it extremely well so long as he keeps throwing his slider, and he keeps throwing strikes.
There is probably not hotter prospect in all of baseball right now than Amed Rosario. He recently played in the Future’s Game, Keith Law recently ranked him as the number 14 overall prospect in all of baseball, and the Mets have called him untouchable in trade discussions thereby assuring he is going to be the Mets shortstop of the future. Given the fact that he is hitting .405/.471/.568 with six doubles and three triples in 17 games at AA Binghamton after dominating the Florida State League, the natural question arises as to when he will get called-up to AAA, so he can work on what he needs to work on there before taking over as the Mets shortstop for the next decade or more.
There’s one problem with aggressively promoting Rosario right now. Gavin Cecchini is currently the shortstop for the AAA Las Vegas 51s.
The 22 year old Cecchini was the Mets 2012 first round draft choice (12th overall). He is a well regarded prospect in his own right being listed as the 89th best prospect in all of baseball by Keith Law heading into the season. He was also MLB.com’s 87th best prospect. He was ranked so high as he hit .317/.377/.442 hitter with 26 doubles, four tripes, seven homers, and 51 RBI for AA Binghamton last year. His play in AA merited him a promotion to AAA where he has so far hit .319/.395/.447 with 17 doubles, two triples, five homers, and 40 RBI. Overall, Cecchini’s statistics alone establish that he’s a worthwhile prospect that should not yet be pushed aside.
Ultimately, statistics aside, Cecchini projects to be a good to very good major league hitter. He could quite possibly be the best contact hitter in the Mets’ minor league system. Cecchini has a nice compact swing who hits the ball with authority from gap to gap. In many ways, he reminds you of a right-handed younger Daniel Murphy at the plate. When his body begins to fill out some of those doubles may begin to turn into home runs at the big league level. While he may not be an All Star, he could very well be an above average regular.
There is one problem with Cecchini. Since he has been in the Mets system, he has mostly struggled defensively. This season is no different with him having an extremely poor .916 fielding percentage. While he has been willing to put in the work and do extra work on the side with Wally Backman, the results just aren’t there. Given the presence of Rosario, the natural inclination would be for the Mets to just move Cecchini to second base. This would create room for Rosario at shortstop, and the two can begin building a chemistry together as a future double play combination.
However, the Mets cannot do that as the Mets second baseman of the future, Dilson Herrera, is currently Cecchini’s double play partner in Las Vegas. The Mets have long been high on Herrera. Two years ago, the Mets gave him an 18 game cup of coffee due to a number of injuries. Last year, the Mets called him up to the majors rather quickly when both Murphy and David Wright went down with injuries. While Herrera didn’t produce much during either short stint in the majors, the tools are all there to be a very good major league hitter. He is still only 22 years old, and he has hit .302/.356/.487 while playing in AAA. Herrera can very well make an All Star Game or two on the basis of his bat alone.
And yet, there are some warning flags with Herrera. While he has good hands, he does not project to be a plus defender at second base. Additionally, he has seemingly taken a step back in AAA this year hitting only .278/.330/.465 in what has been an injury plagued year. He has become much less patient at the plate seemingly swinging at everything instead of working the count and getting a pitch to drive. It is somewhat troubling, but he is still only 22 years old, and he has shown he can be a terrific hitter. It is way too early to give up on player who can be a terrific hitter who has plus power for a middle infield position. Accordingly, you can’t just move Cecchini to second.
So what do you do with Cecchini? There are no easy answers.
The Mets could try to move him to third base where he could serve as insurance against David Wright‘s back. Given his lateral mobility and his arm, Cecchini could play the position. However, given Cecchini’s lack of true home run power, he doesn’t have the type of bat that could play at a corner infield position. Furthermore, removing Cecchini from shortstop would only serve to diminish his potential trade value.
Indeed, the Mets could look to trade him like they are apparently willing to do with any prospect named Amed Rosario. However, if the Mets were to do that, they would be parting with a player who has shown he could be a viable major league player. If the Mets were to part with Cecchini, they would be losing a big insurance policy. Rosario and Herrera could falter or get injured like some can’t miss prospects do. In the event that happens, Cecchini could prove to be a valuable piece who takes advantage of his opportunity. Mets fans saw this happen as recently as 2013 when Jacob deGrom established himself as a front line starting pitcher while Rafael Montero became an also ran. In essence, it is important to have depth, and Cecchini is certainly that.
Still, there is no doubt that Rosario and Herrera are the better prospects right now, and you cannot have Cecchini blocking their path to the majors no matter how good Cecchini is. The Mets could make him a third baseman or utility player thereby making him a better option for the big league club, but also diminishing his trade value. Overall, there are seemingly no good answers as to what the Mets should do with Cecchini. In some ways, it is a dilemma. In others, it is a good problem to have.
With the Mets looking to improve their roster in the hopes of both making the postseason and winning the World Series this year, the Mets may very well have to include him in a trade to get that player who puts them over the top. It’s also likely teams will force the Mets to give up Herrera in a trade. In either event, the problem will have been solved for the Mets. In the event that neither one is moved at the trading deadline, things will become interesting for the Mets. Ultimately, it is going to be very interesting to see how this whole situation eventually plays out.