Brandon Nimmo
This might have been the Nationals home opener, but this game certainly had the feel of an Opening Day to the season. You had a great pitching matchup with Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg. More than that, as a fan, there was a great sense of anticipation for the matchup. Not just because of the pitching matchup. Not just because of the eagerness to see how the Mets matchup against the Nationals.
No, the biggest headline of this day was Michael Conforto making his 2018 debut.
Given the poor run of luck with significant injuries and the ensuing recoveries, you would expect Mets fans to have trepidation. David Wright and Matt Harvey are Exhibit A and Exhibit B for that. And yet, for some reason, the Mets fans seemed to have nothing but excitement to see their future superstar return to the Mets ahead of schedule.
Mickey Callaway put him in the lineup as the leadoff hitter and as the center fielder.
It wasn’t the greatest of starts for Conforto, who said he wanted to start today because he wanted Strasburg. He struck out in his first at-bat against Strasburg on three pitches. In the bottom of the first, Adam Eaton hit the first pitch over his head for a lead off double. With Anthony Rendon following with a single on a ball Jay Bruce would bobble, it was quickly 1-o Nationals.
Things would get better for Conforto and deGrom.
Bruce would atone for his error by nearly hitting one out against Strasburg. Two quick outs later followed by a Kevin Plawecki walk, the Mets had runners at the corners with surprise starter Jose Reyes at the plate. The Mets didn’t need Reyes to deliver here because Strasburg would balk trying to pick off Plawecki leading to Bruce scoring.
Eaton and Rendon would strike back in the third to give the Nationals the lead again. Eaton walked, and he would score on a Rendon double. From that point forward, it was all Mets.
Yoenis Cespedes lead off the fourth with a game tying home run. As if it wasn’t exciting enough to see Cespedes tying up the game, the Mets would rally in the fifth.
Plawecki led things off with a leadoff single, and he moved to second on a Reyes ground out. After a deGrom strikeout, that meant it was up to Conforto to try to break the tie. Up until this point in the game, he struck out on three pitches, and he hit into a double play. Things did not look great in this at-bat as Strasburg quickly went up 1-2 on him. Then, Conforto showed us just how healthy he is:
This Conforto kids pretty good. pic.twitter.com/wqbhd5CJwK
— John Flanigan (@jflan816) April 5, 2018
His opposite field home run showed us not just the return of his all field power, but also his great approach at the plate. In our “Yes, Virginia” moment, we now knew Conforto was alright.
Now, with a 4-2 lead, this put the game in deGrom’s hands. With his entering the game with an all-time best 1.98 ERA in day games and his being 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in Nationals Park, it looked like it would be smooth sailing for the Mets.
However, this is the Mets and nothing is ever easy. The Nationals quickly loaded the bases with no outs in the sixth. This wasn’t helped by deGrom uncharacteristically issuing back-to-back walks to Rendon and Bryce Harper. With deGrom being the ace that he is, he bore down.
First, he got Ryan Zimmerman to hit a shallow fly to right. Howie Kendrick hit a laser right at Reyes. Finally, deGrom struck out Trea Turner on three straight pitches, the last one looking.
It’s still early in the season, and there are 155 games left to be played, but this may prove to be a seminal moment of the 2018 season because after that we didn’t see the Nationals who tortured the Mets in 2014 and 2016. No, this started to feel like the 2015 season with the Nationals falling apart when pushed by the Mets.
The ungluing happened in the seventh inning.
Turner was ejected for arguing with the home plate umpire, and Brandon Kintzler just didn’t have it.
After the Reyes pop out, Brandon Nimmo pinch hit for deGrom, and he nearly hit one out. Conforto walked. After a borderline strike was called to strike out Asdrubal Cabrera, Cespedes and Bruce would get the benefit of the doubt on close pitches. Both batters would have 3-2 counts. Cespedes walked, and Bruce hit a grand slam giving the Mets an 8-2 lead.
That’s how you put a game on ice.#PapaSlam pic.twitter.com/ITAuyXZXf3
— MLB (@MLB) April 5, 2018
Jerry Blevins and Robert Gsellman would combine to pitch a perfect seventh. Hansel Robles navigated through a one out Rendon double while striking out the side. One his strikeout victims was Harper who is now 1-4 with three strikeouts off Robles. Seth Lugo would bring it home to preserve the 8-2 win.
Overall, the Mets got a big home run from Cespedes. They had an injured player come back and provide a huge home run. One of the Mets aces outpitched one of the Nationals aces. The Nationals had a key player suffer an injury and another one lose their cool. The Nationals bullpen melted down while the Mets bullpen was much better than expected.
If I didn’t know any better, I would swear this was August 2015.
Game Notes: deGrom became the first Met this season to have a quality start. His final line was 6.0 inning, four hits, two runs, one earned, three walks, and five strikeouts. After the sixth inning, Eaton left the game with an injury. He was off to a hot start after tearing his ACL.
Last year when Michael Conforto crumpled down to the ground in pain after a checked swing, it was every bit as much of a gut punch as when Matt Harvey‘s magical 2013 season came to an end because he needed Tommy John surgery. The Mets future and hopes for another World Series was right there. The bright spot in another wise lost and dismal season dimmed.
When you look up torn posterior capsule, you really feared the worst. You feared the worst because of what you learned about the injury, but also because this is the Mets. Things rarely break right for them on the injury front.
As Conforto rehabbed, it seemed as if the timetables for his return kept getting shorter and shorter. With him and the Mets reporting to Spring Training, the May 1st target date seemed a bit aggressive. After all, it was just two years ago when the Mets had given Zack Wheeler and early return date from his own Tommy John surgery only to see that date continuously pushed further back and back until the point Bartolo Colon was solidly entrenched as a starter, and the Mets were calling up Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman to help save their season.
Despite the trepidation many may have had, Conforto continued to get closer and closer to returning. Away from the lights, he played in minor league intrasquad games where he not only homered twice, but he did it off left-handed pitching. One of those left-handed pitchers included last year’s first round draft pick David Peterson.
As the Mets started the season we kept hearing that May 1st target date was getting pushed up not by days but by weeks. And here we are now with Conforto getting activated in advance of the Mets first series against the Nationals.
As luck would have it, he is going to be the first Met to step into the batter’s box against Stephen Strasburg.
Mets fans have quickly become enamored with Brandon Nimmo with his infectious personality, his smiling all the time, and with his ability to draw more walks than Da Vinci. However, Conforto is the Mets player you want up against Strasburg to set the tone for the game, the season series, and for the divisional battle between these two teams. That is, of course, assuming Conforto is 100%.
Trusting a Mets player is fully healthy and recovered from injury is really a feeling Mets fans have grown unaccustomed. Look no further than Harvey whose Tommy John turned to TOS and whose effectiveness and ceiling have fallen off a cliff.
So yes, at the moment, Mets fans should be excited yet cautiously optimistic about the return of Conforto. That first big swing and miss, that head first slide into a base, and that diving play in the outfield is going to take years off our lives. That feeling will subside over time and may emerge whenever it seems Conforto takes just that extra half second before getting off the ground or getting back in the batter’s box.
That’s the life of a Mets fan, and as Mets fans we should all take time to pray his shoulder is really 100%, and that he is about to become the superstar he was on the verge of becoming last year. Once we see he’s really good to go, we can then all cheer with the unbridled enthusiasm we had for him last year.
In my life, there are two offbeat holiday traditions I look forward to each and every year if the calendar permits.
The first is St. Paddy’s Day. To me, there is nothing better than the NCAA Tournament starting on a Thursday St. Paddy’s Day.
That morning begins with me making a soda bread, and if all goes according to plan, and by now it does, I’m in front of the TV as the first tip-off begins with a slice of soda bread fresh from the oven. I then wash that down with a beautiful Guiness.
The other tradition is Easter Sunday baseball.
Find the Easter baskets. Go to mass. Enjoy a lovely brunch. Turn on the Mets game.
My first memory doing this was 1987. I knew it was that year because the Easter Bunny stuffed my Easter basket with those beautiful wood bordered Topps cards.
I remember my uncles gathering around the TV to watch the Mets face off against the Cardinals. I still remember my Nana’s consternation over it. That consternation would ensue for decades.
Thirty-one years later, my ritual was renewed with the Mets again losing to the Cardinals.
Really, the Mets lost because Steven Matz wasn’t sharp, and Luke Weaver was.
Matz left the ball up, and that led to Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina capitalizing by each hitting solo homers off Matz.
Those homers accounted for two of the three Cardinals homers of the day and for two of the three runs Matz allowed in his four innings pitched. Being optimistic, this was a stepping stone for Matz.
Sure, you could point to how he needed 89 pitches to get through four. He walked three and struck out just four. The Cardinals scores in three straight innings off of him. However, lost in that was just how bad CB Bucknor was behind the plate, and how much he squeezed Matz.
The converse was Weaver had the same strike zone, but he didn’t struggle the same way. To be fair, he dealt with a more platoon friendly lineup.
Brandon Nimmo was sick leading to Juan Lagares getting the start. Surprisingly, Lagares had a great day at the plate going 3-4.
With everyone sputtering around him, there’s no surprise he was left stranded all three times.
One of the bigger offenders was Wilmer Flores. Even with the right-handed starter, Flores got the start over Adrian Gonzalez.
Flores would go 0-4 with two strikeouts. He also failed to cash in in a key opportunity. In the first, the Mets didn’t get the early led with Flores striking out with runners on first and second with two out.
After that, DeJong hit a solo shot in the top of the second, and the Cardinals never looked back in their 5-1 win.
Big picture, the Mets have nothing to worry about here. It was just one loss in a series they not only played well, but they took two of three. If the Mets play this way, and they’re doing places this year.
And as an aside, it was fun to share one of my favorite traditions with my two boys.
Game Notes: Both Paul Sewald and Jacob Rhame made their 2018 debuts, and they both surrendered a run.
After how great Opening Day was for the Mets, you’d think the only change that would be made was starting Jacob deGrom. It would’ve been justified with the Cardinals starting another right-handed pitcher in Michael Wacha. That’s not what happened.
In Game 2 of the Mickey Callaway Era, we’re learning this is not a manager who is one for maintaining the status quo. Rather, this is not someone afraid to upset the Mets Home Run Apple card. He’s going to make an informed decision, and he is going to run with it even if it is unpopular.
And because of that, before first pitch today, he was quite unpopular.
Brandon Nimmo was benched in favor of Juan Lagares even with Nimmo reaching in four of his five plate appearances.
Asdrubal Cabrera, the only Mets Opening Day starter to not get a hit was moved from cleanup to leadoff.
Kevin Plawecki, who also reached base four times and hit a double, was benched for Travis d’Arnaud.
Callaway had a sound basis for his decisions. Wacha has reverse splits, and these players hit left-handed pitchers better. deGrom has a high fly ball rate, and Lagares is the best center fielder in baseball. And yet, despite all that, Callaway opened himself up for criticism.
Those critics were silenced immediately as Cabrera led off the bottom of the first with a double. He would eventually score on a Todd Frazier two RBI double.
.@FlavaFraz21 is the cleanup hitter for a reason. pic.twitter.com/qfZ0eCTkA8
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 31, 2018
On the day, Cabrera was 3-5 with a run, the aforementioned double, and an RBI. With that performance, he more than justified his manager’s decision.
Lagares and d’Arnaud would as well.
In the fourth, d’Arnaud would hit the first homer by a Mets player this year. Overall, he was 1-3 with a run, walk, homer, and an RBI.
Yoenis Cespedes would hit the second of the season with a fifth inning blast.
Lagares would also shut everyone up going 2-4 with a run.
Even with deGrom struggling to find it, he still allowed one run on four hits while allowing just one walk and striking out seven over 5.2 innings
The end result was the Mets dominating the Cardinals again. For the second time in as many days; the Mets chased the opposing starter, and they tacked on runs against the opposing bullpen.
For a second straight game, the Mets bullpen looked good.
Robert Gsellman came on with two outs in the sixth and struck out Jose Martinez. After he got into some trouble in the seventh, Anthony Swarzak bailed him out.
Swarzak was the only issue on the day and not just because Matt Carpenter homered off of him to pull the Cardinals within 5-2. The real issue was Swarzak left the game with a strained oblique.
This led to Callaway, a former American League pitching coach, having to make a double switch. Yes, it may be overblown, but Willie Randolph did have an issue with it early in his career.
When Callaway made the switch, it was Jeurys Familia coming in for the four out save. It was a throwback to how he was used in 2015. Fortunately, Familia looks as great as he did then.
With that power sinker back in the high 90s, Familia is unhittable. He was unhittable striking out two and recording the save.
So again, Callaway pushed all the right buttons, and the Mets won another game. In the future, these decisions may not work out as well as it has in the first two games, overall, with Callaway making informed decisions like this, they will work out more times than not.
If that happens, Mets fans will give him the benefit of the doubt because the Mets will be winning games and heading to the postseason.
Game Notes: Callaway joins former Mets manager Joe Frazier to begin his managerial career by winning the first two games of a season. No Mets manager has won three straight games to begin their career.
Frazier’s first inning RBI double was the first of his career.
While being a Mets fan may come with some trials and tribulations, the one day Mets fans are typically happy is Opening Day. Heading into today’s game, the Mets were 36-20 all time on Opening Day, which is the best Opening Day winning percentage in Major League history. As a result, the Mets are usually 1-0, and their manager looks like a genius.
Today, new Mets Manager Mickey Callaway looked like a genius.
When you looked at the Opening Day lineup, you knew immediately this was no longer Terry Collins‘ Mets. The lineup not only had the Mets best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, batting second, it also had Noah Syndergaard batting eighth and Amed Rosario batting ninth. If you were skeptical of the decision, the Mets quickly put you at ease.
Kevin Plawecki reached on a one out walk, and he remained there after Syndergaard struck out. With two outs and the lead-off hitter behind him, Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez challenged Rosario with fastballs. Rosario shot a single up the middle putting runners one first and second with two outs.
Brandon Nimmo did what Brandon Nimmo does, and he drew a walk. Cespedes came up with the bases loaded, and he delivered with a two out RBI single, which at the time gave the Mets a 3-2 lead. And with that, Callaway looked like a genius.
Frankly, it’s easy to look like a genius when everyone plays as well as the Mets did today.
Nimmo set the tone getting hit by the first pitch of the game and eventually scoring on a Jose Martinez throwing error on what could have been an Asdrubal Cabrera double play grounder. Instead of an inning ending double play, the Mets scored a first inning run without getting a base hit. That’s what happens when you draw nine walks in the game.
Speaking of Nimmo, he was brilliant today. He went 2-3 with two runs, a walk, and the aforementioned hit by pitch. With Michael Conforto reportedly being much closer to being ready to start his season, Nimmo is going to need more games like this to stay in the starting lineup.
So will Adrian Gonzalez. The veteran was coming off a horrific injury plagued 2017 season where the Dodgers not only didn’t miss him as they won the pennant, it seemed they didn’t even want him around. Nor did the Braves for that matter, as after a trade, they are paying him almost $22 million to play for an NL East rival.
Between that, his terrible Spring Training, and his soft line out to short in his first at-bat, helooked done. He wouldn’t make another out on the game going 2-3 with a run, double, two walks, and an RBI.
In situations like this, you want your players to make the decision about who should sit and who should play to be extraordinarily difficult. Based on Nimmo’s and Gonzalez’s play, Callaway’s decision will just be that.
Overall, the Mets offense and unconventional lineup was humming. The team scored nine runs on 12 hits highlighted by a five run fifth where they not only chased Martinez, but also former Mets prospect Matthew Bowman.
Every Mets starter, save Syndergaard, reached base at least once safely. Cespedes and Rosario were the only ones who did not draw a walk. However, when Rosario is attacking first pitch fastballs to the tune of a 2-4 day with two runs and two RBI, you don’t mind his over-aggressiveness at the plate.
About the only negative on the day was seeing Yadier Molina homer. That just brought back too many raw emotions from 2006. Some of that sting was taken away with Molina suffering the indignity of Jay Bruce stealing a base off of him.
With Syndergaard, you had some real reason for excitement. He became just the second Mets pitcher to strike out 10 on Opening Day. He needed just 85 pitches to get through six innings. Yes, he would give up the two homers, but overall, he seemed poised and ready to have a dominating 2018 season.
Speaking of dominating, the Mets bullpen came out and completely shut the door on the Cardinals. Robert Gsellman, Anthony Swarzak, and Jeurys Familia combined to pitch three scoreless and hitless innings. Gsellman was the most impressive striking out the side in the seventh. This bullpen performance will make you forget about the Cardinals getting Greg Holland over the Mets for one day.
And for this one day, Gonzalez is rejuvenated, the bullpen is lights out, Callaway is a genuis, and the Mets are the best team in baseball. Sure, it seems that way almost every Opening Day as a Mets fan, but at least for tonight, let’s just believe this will carry on well into October.
Game Notes: A number 10 was placed on the back of the mound to honor the recently deceased Rusty Staub. Syndergaard joined Pedro Martinez as the only Mets starter to have a double digit strikeout game on Opening Day. This was the first time a Mets starter made back-to-back Opening Day starts since Johan Santana did it from 2008 – 2010.
As I do from time to time, we need a “completely serious” analysis and projection of each and every Mets player who is expected to contribute during the 2018 season. While there are many prjoection systems which claim to be fool-proof, there are none that will be this accurate about the Mets:
Sandy Alderson – The other 29 GMs in baseball will be left in complete hysterics when Alderson is calling around for a right-handed reliever to help boost the team’s chances to making the postseason.
Mickey Callaway – The writers will overwhelmingly vote him as the National League Manager of the Year. The most cited reason for giving him the award will be the fact he didn’t insist on playing his worst players or forcing his players to play through crippling injuries.
Dave Eiland– Multiple Mets pitchers will hug him for actually fixing their mechanics and for listening to them when they say they’re hurting.
Tyler Bashlor – When someone notices how similar his name is to the ABC reality show hit The Bachelor, they’ll say how “The Bashlor” is handing out strikeouts like they’re roses. We should all hate that person.
Jerry Blevins– Until he eats a sandwich, the socks given away in his honor will hang around his ankles
Bryce Brentz– He’s going to be the guy who has one or two at-bats this season, and someone is going to invoke his name as a former Met to try to sound like he knows more about the Mets than you know anything.
Jay Bruce– After a four home run game, all Mets fans will want to talk about is when he is going to move to first base.
Asdrubal Cabrera – After a slump, Callaway will move Cabrera down in the lineup causing Cabrera to bring his kids to the clubhouse and have them ask why Callaway doesn’t want them to eat.
Jamie Callahan– His wearing #43 will serve as a constant reminder that not only was he part of the return for Addison Reed, but also how the Mets turned quality MLB players into six right-handed relief prospects. That will be the worst possible sequel to I Know What You Did Last Summer.
Yoenis Cespedes – After an MVP caliber first half, he will feel like he has earned just one game of golf as a reward during the All Star Break. He will immediately be vilified.
Michael Conforto – After a huge cut and a swing and miss, Conforto will wince for a moment thereby causing a passionate Mets fans behind home plate to have a heart attack. This will led to a call for the netting to be filled in and for fans to have to watch the game on a tape delay.
Travis d’Arnaud– During a remarkably healthy season, he will finally be forced to catch Syndergaard, who had spent most of the seaosn with Plawecki as his personal catcher. On the first pitch of the game, Syndergaard throws a 101 MPH fastball which immediately shatters d’Arnaud’s hand.
Jacob deGrom– After a slump, he’s going to look to grow his hair out. Once he realizes his hair cannot possibly reach it’s old length during the 2018, he’s going to grow a really long beard and change his entrance music to “Legs” by ZZ Top.
Phillip Evans– When he cashes in his check for his postseason share, Evans will fondly remember that April pinch hitting appearance.
Jeurys Familia – After he gives up a seventh inning homer to Conor Gillaspie costing the Mets a game, fans will scream for him to pitch in the ninth inning again.
Wilmer Flores – He will be in such hysterics during his struggles in his first game in the outfield his crying on the field in 2015 will look like a case of the sniffles.
Todd Frazier– It will take many Mets fans a long time to come to grips that Jersey Boy Todd Frazier does not use a Bruce Springsteen song as his walk-up music. That point will finally come when they realize Frank Sinatra is from Hoboken and not NYC.
Adrian Gonzalez – He will become James Loney2.0. He will hit well enough for the Mets to stick with him, and the front office will continue to stick with him long after he has since been useful.
Robert Gsellman – As he continues to wait in Las Vegas for his opportunity to get back to the Majors, he will eventually care what Sandy Alderson thinks of him.
Matt Harvey – He’s going to pull a reverse Ben Affleck by going from The Dark Knight moniker to Daredevil. He will earn that name by following Eiland’s instructions to throw inside with such reckless abandon to the point where people start to question if he’s gone blind.
Juan Lagares – After once again injuring his thumb on a diving attempt, the Mets will finally realize Lagares’ injures were the result of him literally using a gold glove to try to play center. While they found the answer and solution for the thumb injuries, they will still be perplexed on how to fix his hitting.
Seth Lugo– We won’t know if people keep referring to the hook with him because of his incredible curveball or because of how Callaway won’t let him face a lineup for a third time.
Steven Matz– In addition to the sandwich he has named after him at the Se-port Deli, he will have one named after him at the cafeteria at the Hospital for Special Surgery.
Brandon Nimmo– Despite putting up great numbers, the Mets will inform Nimmo they unfortunately have to send him down to Triple-A due to a temporary roster squeeze. When he’s still smiling through the ordeal, they will force him to seek psychological counseling.
Kevin Plawecki– On a day when the Mets are getting blown out, the frustrated Plawecki will use the last of his six mound visits to derisively tell his pitcher he can pitch better than this. The pitcher will remind him he has a better batting average than Plawecki.
AJ Ramos – After striking out Giancarlo Stanton in a Subway Series game, he’s going to go home and find his friend has moved out of their shared apartment. Odd Couple style hilarity ensues.
Jose Reyes– One day, he will hit a triple and score on a mad dash to home plate. He will have that old Reyes smile, and it will electrify the crowd. It will also cause everyone to forget that he is one of the worst position players in all of baseball.
T.J. Rivera – After he comes off the disabled list, he’ll deliver in the clutch for the Mets and his teammates will honor him as the player of the game. The Mets will make sure he’s not standing in front of Plawecki’s locker when they take a photo to tweet out.
Hansel Robles– Many will credit him with the discovery of extra terrestrials by his discovery of a UFO in the Vegas night. Years later, Robles will sheepishly admit all he was doing was pointing up at another homer he allowed.
Amed Rosario– To the surprise of us all, Rosario will strike out looking when the pitcher throws him a pitch which he was surprised at and was not ready to swing at. Entire belief systems will be shattered.
Jacob Rhame– Like Jason Phillips, he will soon realize fans may first like you for the googles and smile in your photo, but really, they’re only going to love you if you produce.
Paul Sewald– After having spent a year with Terry Collins, he’s going to be the player most comfortable with having no defined role in the bullpen. However, it will be an adjustment for him not having to warm up multiple times per game.
Dominic Smith – When he gets called up to the Majors as part of September call-ups, he will be late on a pitch causing his manager to believe he learned nothing from Spring Training.
Anthony Swarzak – The jokes about not knowing how to spell his name will get old by mid-April. The jokes will be rediscovered in August when more fans tune it to a Mets team that is a surprising contender. The jokes will continue to not be funny.
Noah Syndergaard– He will continue his “Twitter Feud” with Mr. Met. It will be discussed ad nausesum during nationally televised games. America will think it’s amusing only fueling the spat even further and giving no hope to Mets fans who have long since found this to be unfunny.
Jason Vargas – When Reyes introduces himself, Vargas will remind him they were teammates in 2007. Both recall that season and will agree it never happened.
Zack Wheeler– He will be converted to a reliever, and in a surprise to us all, he will lead the league in saves. In a surprise to him that league will be the Pacific Coast League.
David Wright– He will apologize and sheepishly admit the Mets crown was an embarrassingly bad idea. He will try to come up with a way to rectify it, but no one will listen to his ideas on the topic anymore.
Heading into last season, it at least seemed the Mets were not as high on the former first round pick as they once were. There were whispers he was really best suited to being a fourth outfielder. Brandon Nimmo would respond by becoming an on base machine when he was called up to the Mets.
From July 30th until the end of the season, he hit .248/.368/.420 with a simply outstanding 15.2% walk rate.
However, that wasn’t enough for the Mets to think of him as anything more than a fourth outfielder. Rather than giving him an inside path to at least fight for a spot in the everyday outfield, the Mets signed Jay Bruce and Adrian Gonzalez. By and through those signings, the Mets indicated they wanted Michael Conforto in center, and they wanted Nimmo on the bench.
More than that, the Mets gave early indications they wanted to see Juan Lagares win the center field job out of Spring Training. Yes, that job was only going to be Lagares’ for about a month or so, but it seemed to be his. Certainly, his elite defense and supposed revamped swing were factors, but the Mets lack of belief in Nimmo also seemed to play a part.
Nimmo responded once again by having an outstanding Spring Training. He would hit .306/.371/.613 with six doubles, two triples, three homers, and 11 RBI. He continued to show an excellent eye posting an absurdly high 22.5% walk rate.
With that Spring Training, Nimmo is going to enter the 2018 season batting leadoff and playing center field.
But for how long? From what we saw, Conforto is well ahead of schedule, and we can expect to see him in Flushing before his May 1st projected return date. While Gonzalez has looked done for most of Spring Training, he did finish Spring Training strong. It’s also important to note historically April is Gonzalez’s best month of the season. Put another way, Gonzalez may play just well enough where you can’t justify sitting him.
That is unless Nimmo is that good. At this time, we don’t know if Nimmo will have one, two, or three or more weeks to prove himself. As we have seen in his young career, if you give him an opportunity, he is going to prove himself. Based upon his history, we can see he is going to do all he can to force the Mets hand.
To that end, the question is whether he is going to have enough time to prove to the Mets he is the long term answer in both center and the lead-off spot.
In 46 games as a rookie last year, Amed Rosario hit just .248/.271/.394. Part of that was fueled by his being a rookie adapting to Major League Baseball. Another part of that was Rosario’s drawing just three walks in 170 plate appearances. What is scary is there is evidence to suggest Rosario may be due for a regression from these numbers.
Eno Sarris, then of Fangraphs, found Rosario had troubling exit velocities and launch angles. There is also the fear Rosario’s .330 BABIP will stabilize. Also, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone Rosario walked just three times in 170 plate appearances.
Arguably, the walk rate was the biggest issue with his biggest issue. In Double-A, his walk rate was just 7.6%, and in Triple-A, his walk rate was only 5.4%. Overall, this means the low walk rate is who Rosario is right now as a player. That is troubling, and for the moment, it should make you question where Rosario should hit in the lineup.
Believe it or not, there are some who see him as either an option to lead-off or the future lead-off hitter for this team. To be fair, we did see some glimpses of his being a Jose Reyes type of electric lead-off hitter. However, with his walk rate and OBP, Rosario should not be hitting anywhere near the top of the lineup.
Given his production, you can argue Rosario should be hitting eighth in the lineup. It’s not a far-fetched idea with him arguably being the worst hitter in this lineup. Still, you have to question if this would really be what is best for his long term development. You would be really hard-pressed to argue having a pitcher protecting him in the lineup would help him see better pitches and/or help him work on his ability to draw walks.
Taking everything into account, the Mets really should consider hitting Rosario ninth in the lineup.
By doing this, you are putting Rosario in a much better position to succeed. Instead of a pitcher protecting him in the lineup, he would have someone like Brandon Nimmo or even Michael Conforto. With the pitcher in front of him, there will be more than a few occasions where Rosario will bat with a runner in scoring position and first base open. That’s quite an advantageous hitting situation.
Similar to what Bobby Valentine did with Roger Cedeno in 1999, this could also help Rosario prepare to be a leadoff hitter. With Rosario batting ninth, there may be more than one occasion where he leads off the ensuing inning after the pitcher makes the final out. More than that, when he comes to the plate, Rosario will be able to do so with a table setter’s mentality. After all, with Yoenis Cespedes likely batting second, Rosario will need to find a way to get on base ahead of the run producers to put him in a position to score.
Ultimately, so long as Rosario is able to mentally prepare himself for hitting ninth, this is the ideal lineup position for him to start the year. Should Rosario begin to hit or he show an ability to being drawing walks, the Mets can then find a more prestigious spot in the lineup for him. Until such time, let him both learn how to best utilitze his speed as a table setter and permit him to be better protected in the lineup.
With the Mets signing Todd Frazier, and the recent announcement he cannot do any baseball activities for the next eight weeks, we are one step closer to everyone admitting David Wright is never going to ever play for the New York Mets again. Certainly, the Mets have operated this offseason like it will never happen. Indeed, if Wright were to be healthy enough to return at any point next season, the team will be forced to cut someone like Jose Reyes, or they will be forced to send someone like Brandon Nimmo, who may very well be the team’s center fielder, to the minors.
As Wright inches towards what seems to be in the inevitable, we get closer and closer to taking stock of his career. For his career, Wright has 49.9 WAR, 40.0 WAR7, and a 45.0 JAWS. These numbers fall short of the 67.5 WAR, 42.8 WAR7, and 55.2 JAWS an average Hall of Fame third baseman puts up in their career.
Looking over those numbers again, Wright is tantalizingly close, but falls short. Right now, there seems to be an overwhelming consensus Wright falls into the Don Mattinglyterritory in that he was a great player when healthy, but ultimately, his health cost him a shot at Cooperstown.
However, upon reviewing Wright’s career, it does not appear his health issues will be the only reason Wright will fall short of Hall of Fame induction.
In the final two seasons at Shea Stadium, Wright emerged as a true superstar. In successive seasons, he posted an 8.3 and 6.8 WAR season. With him entering the prime years of his career, it looked like Wright was well on his way to the Hall of Fame. What ensued was two ugly years at Citi Field.
Over 2009 and 2010, Wright’s offensive numbers would see a precipitous drop across the board. As a result, in the prime of his career, by WAR, Wright had the two worst healthy seasons of his career. A player who went from averaging a 7.6 WAR in the final two years at Shea struggled to accumulate a 5.9 WAR over two year.
If you are looking for reasons why this happened, look not further than Citi Field. In its original form, Citi Field would see no doubt homers died on the edge of the warning track because the park was beyond cavernous:
- Left Field 335 ft
- Left Center 384
- Center 408
- Right Center 415
- Right Field 330
As if that wasn’t bad enough, there was a 16 foot left field wall Harry Rose dubbed “The Great Wall of Flushing.”
Considering Wright was a batter who hit it to all fields and who had natural power to right center field, his new ballpark was completely ill suited to his particular skill set. It should come as no surprise Wright’s oWAR and overall WAR nosedived.
In 2012, when the outfield walls at Citi Field were brought in and lowered, Wright started putting up Wright-like numbers again. That year, Wright had a 7.0 WAR, the second highest of his career. This would also prove to be his last healthy season.
The end of Wright’s peak was 2013. Astonishingly, Wright had a 5.9 WAR in just 112 games. Considering the stats he put up, it does make you question what his stats would have looked like in 2009 and 2010 under “normal” conditions.
Taking the last two years at Shea and the first two with the newly constructed Citi Field outfield walls, Wright averaged a 7.0 WAR. If he were to averaged a 7.0 WAR in 2009 and 2010, his numbers would have been:
WAR 59.1
WAR7 46.8
JAWS 53.0
Yes, Wright would still fall short of the 67.5 WAR an average Hall of Fame third baseman produced over the length of their career, but Wright would have eclipsed the 42.8 WAR7 and been just short of the 55.2 JAWS. Essentially, with Wright you would have had a real argument to induct him on the strength of his peak years.
Even if you want to be a little more conservative and say he would have averaged 5.9 (his low in 2013) instead of the 7.0 average, he would be at a 55.8 WAR, 44.6 WAR7, and a 50.2 JAWS.
Again, Wright would have had the peak years argument, and with his spinal stenosis, he would have had a tangible Hall of Fame argument. Certainly, if Kirby Puckett got the benefit of the doubt with him suffering a career ending injury at 35, Wright would have had a case with his injury happening at 32, if not sooner.
In the end, Wright’s career and spinal stenosis has left us with many what ifs. Looking at the numbers, we should also question what if Citi Field was not so ill designed when it first opened? Would David Wright have made it to the Hall of Fame.
Based upon a look at the numbers, I would argue he would have been enshrined and deservedly so. However, because of the original Citi Field dimensions and many other factors, it appears Wright will not make the Hall of Fame, which is a damned shame because Wright certainly deserved better than all of this.