Brandon Nimmo
With everything Peter Alonso does, it is getting harder and harder justifying keeping him in Triple-A past the first few weeks of the season. His power is legit, and it he attacks this offseason like he did the last, he’s going to be a significantly improved player. Seeing the season he just had, that’s a scary thought, and yet, there’s no way the Mets can just hand him the first base job next year, not if they are planning on winning next year.
Again, this is no slight against Alonso, but rather a result of the circumstances. When analyzing the situation, there are certain assumptions we need to make. The first assumption Jay Bruce has a contract which cannot be traded. When looking at the sprint speeds compiled by Baseball Savant, Bruce is the slowest right fielder in the majors, and as a result, the second assumption is Bruce should no longer be playing the outfield. The last assumption is with Bruce still having two years $28 million on his deal, the Mets are not going to put him on the bench, nor would Bruce be willing to accept such an assignment.
With all of that being the case, where is the room for Alonso on the 2019 roster?
You could argue he could go play right field, but then you are weakening your outfield defense. Last year, Bruce was a -4 DRS in 538.2 innings in right field. With him in right, Brandon Nimmo is your likely center fielder, and he was a -2 DRS and -2.8 UZR in 350.1 innings in center last year. Configuring your outfield this way may also carry with it the possibility Juan Lagares, who is the best defensive center fielder in baseball, even fewer innings in the outfield.
The obvious rebuttal to this is Bruce is not a first baseman. It’s a fair comment, but if you follow the scouting reports, Alonso has struggled at first base next year. You could argue Alonso would not be better than the 0 DRS Bruce had in 180.1 innings there last year. You could even argue Alonso would be worse.
Assume for a second, the Mets decide to ignore outfield defense completely, and they put Bruce in right field to make room for Alonso. Your outfield is now set, and also, it means your infield is likely set. This means the Mets do not add a Manny Machado, A.J. Pollock, or other big right-handed bat this team really needs to add this offseason.
Sure, you could say the Mets could still sign someone, but then you are likely forcing Jeff McNeil to the bench because it is unrealistic to expect Brodie Van Wagenen to tell his former client Todd Frazier he is now a utility infielder. Moreover, for a Mets pitching staff who induces many groundballs, it would seem like a mistake to put your only quality infield defender on the bench. If you have your choice between Alonso and McNeil, don’t you have to go with McNeil at this point because he’s proven he can play and play well at the Major League level?
The bigger question iss if you’re the Mets, and you are truly trying to build a World Series contender next year, are you really going to put all of your eggs in the Peter Alonso basket? That’s a really big risk.
Keep in mind, some of his stats in Binghamton were inflated by a .344 BABIP. Given how slow he is, he’s due for some course correction on that. Compounding the problem is the fact he pulled the ball 50.3 percent of the time with Vegas. If he is going to be that extreme a pull hitter (as opposed to what he was in 2017), teams are going to shift him accordingly, and he’s going to lose a lot of base hits he is currently getting.
With Vegas, he had a 25.9 percent strikeout rate. In the Arizona Fall League, he is striking out 25.6 percent of the time. That’s not a great strikeout rate, and it’s possible he strikes out more against Major League pitching.
There’s also some question about his ability to hit right-handed pitching at the Major League level. Baseball America said of Alonso, “his power will play in the big leagues, perhaps in the second half of 2018, whether as a regular or a platoon masher.” To be fair, the stats don’t necessarily prove that out with Alonso having a higher OPS against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching last year.
Now, it’s possible Alonso comes to Queens next year, and he is able to succeed despite these question marks. After all, Paul Goldschmidt was once thought to be a platoon bat who proved he could hit anybody. Lucas Duda was able to prove himself an everyday first baseman despite a high strikeout rate because of his plate discipline and power.
Really, by no means should we count out Alonso being a masher at the Major League level. However, we also shouldn’t count on it happening immediately next year. More than that, the Mets shouldn’t be counting on it if they intend to try to win the World Series next year.
Ultimately, Alonso needs to start the year in Syracuse because the Mets are going to have to find a spot for Jay Bruce to play and because the team needs to get a proven right-handed bat this offseason.
With Brodie Van Wagenen being announced as the new Mets General Manager tomorrow, his work begins immediately. Right now, Jose Reyes, Devin Mesoraco, Jerry Blevins, Austin Jackson, and Jose Lobaton are free agents. With eight more players listed on the 60 day disabled list (Eric Hanhold, Rafael Montero, Bobby Wahl, Travis d’Arnaud, Phillip Evans, T.J. Rivera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Juan Lagares), the team needs to cut at least three players by Friday.
More than that, Van Wagenen will be entasked in improving the roster into a 2019 World Series contender. Here is Van Wagenen’s starting point:
C – Kevin Plawecki
1B – Jay Bruce
2B – Jeff McNeil
3B – Todd Frazier
SS – Amed Rosario
LF – Michael Conforto
CF – Juan Lagares
RF – Brandon Nimmo
Certainly, the Mets are set in the middle infield and the corner outfield spots. Obviously, Yasmani Grandal would be a significant addition to both the lineup and in the pitch framing department. Even if not Grandal, the catching position seems to be a real target to upgrade either on the free agent market, where real upgrades are limited, or on the trade front, where there are a number of rebuilding teams who could move a catcher (Buster Posey?).
As for the other positions, the Mets are going to have to move a player/contract. If the Mets really want to significantly upgrade this roster, the team is going to have to find a way to move Bruce, Frazier, or both. That not only opens room for a significant addition, but it also means the team will have some extra money on the budget to improve the roster.
In the end, there is real talent here, but talent which needs to be surrounded by the right players. Ideally, that is at least one right-handed power bat to balance out a lineup which already balances out Conforto, Nimmo, and McNeil. When doing that, Van Wagenen will need to buttress this group by building a strong bench, which is something which has not been done since the trade deadline maneuvers in the 2015 season.
Rays Vice President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom will not just take any job. At 35 years old, he can be selective, and he has. In the past, Bloom has outright refused to even interview for the Diamondbacks position. However, he not only has decided to interview for the Mets job, but he is also a finalist for the General Manager position.
Bloom’s interesting in the position should have Mets fans excited about the future of this team regardless of who the team hires to be the General Manager.
There is a lot to like with this Mets team. Just like 2015, it all starts with the rotation. Jacob deGrom has emerged this season as the best pitcher in baseball. Zack Wheeler looked like an ace himself posting the second best ERA in the second half. Noah Syndergaard had 13 wins in a down year, and he had a strong finish to the season. Finally, somehow Steven Matz actually made 30 starts last year. Now that Matz is able to navigate a full season, he can take the next step much like how Wheeler did this year.
There are also the y0ung left-handed bats on this roster. Using wRC+ as a barometer, Brandon Nimmo was the second best hitter in the National League last year and in the top 10 of all of baseball. After dealing with the shoulder issues, Michael Conforto hit .273/.356/.539 in the second half. Jeff McNeil emerged from out of nowhere to not just make to the majors but to also claim the second base job for 2019 by posting a 2.4 WAR and 137 wRC+ in just 63 Major League games.
The Mets also have a vastly improving farm system. Andres Gimenez, Peter Alonso, and Jarred Kelenic are viewed by nearly every outlet as Top 100 prospects. After a breakout season, Justin Dunn is on the cusp of cracking those lists as well. David Peterson and Anthony Kay are both left-handers who took steps forward and are not far from the majors.
There are also young players who people have lost enthusiasm but still have talent. Dominic Smith will not turn 24 until August, and there are still many who believe in his talent. For example, Keith Law of ESPN believes Smith could hit better than .262/.346/.459 if given the first base job next year. Before his season ending injury last year, Gavin Cecchini returned to the form he was when he was seen as a future middle infielder for the Mets.
This is before we even consider players like Mark Vientos, Shervyen Newton, Luis Santana, and even Desmond Lindsay with his retooled swing. The overriding point is the Mets farm system has plenty of talent, and Bloom, a Rays executive with a strong player development background knows this.
Ultimately, this is why Bloom is interested in the Mets General Manager job. This is also why Mets fans should be excited about the future of this team even if Bloom does not get the job because whether or not he gets the job, the talent is already here. It’s now just a matter of that talent continuing their development and winning the World Series.
Starting with the obvious, as constructed today, the Yankees are a far superior team than the New York Mets. With Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Luis Severino, this Yankees team is set up to win 90 plus games a year for the next decade. Given the talent base and how the Yankees are willing to spend, the Yankees should be a fixture in the postseason, much like they were in the late 90s, and that is a prerequisite to winning a World Series.
However, as we saw with this Yankees team for the second straight season, they could not get through the postseason partially because they did not have the ace to help push them through to the World Series.
Last year, it was Justin Verlander, who helped stop the Yankees. In many ways, Verlander has proved to be the Yankees kryptonite. In three different postseasons, Verlander has faced the Yankees, and each time, Verlander’s teams advanced. Last year, Verlander was the ALCS MVP going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA. What made the issue worse for the Yankees is they did not go out and get an eminently available Verlander.
This year, the Yankees were stopped by Chris Sale. Not only did Sale beat the Yankees in Game 1, but he would stop the Yankees in Game 4 in his one inning of work.
With the Yankees window opening last year, they have failed to get an ace to go up against Verlander, Sale, or even Corey Kluber (who the Yankees beat in the 2017 ALDS). Severino has not yet proven to be that guy. Instead of utilizing Justus Sheffield and some other prospect to acquire that ace, they are hoping that he develops into that front line starter himself.
If neither of those things happen, it is hard to imagine how the Yankees can navigate their way through the American League portion of the postseason each and every year. The Astros and Red Sox have every bit the position player talent the Yankees have, and they also have more starting pitching. To that end, it’s difficult to see how exactly the Yankees win a World Series with this core.
Equally as difficult is seeing how the Mets even make the postseason. While the Mets have talent, they are in a division with the upcoming Braves and Phillies teams. Moreover, the Nationals are always ready, willing, and able to spend in free agency to address the deficiencies on their roster. This creates a real uphill battle for a Mets franchise with ownership which continues to serve as an impediment to building a winner.
And yet, if the Mets ever do get to the postseason, they are a really dangerous team. Back in 2015, we saw what Jacob deGrom can do in the postseason and that was before he emerged as the best pitcher in baseball. Similarly, Noah Syndergaard has shown himself to be a big time postseason pitcher. Aside from his strong 2015 rookie campaign, Syndergaard would go pitch-for-pitch with Madison Bumgarner, the best postseason pitcher of this generation, in the 2016 Wild Card Game. What makes that postseason all the more impressive is the emergence of Zack Wheeler this season.
When you substitute Wheeler for 2015 Matt Harvey, you have the type of pitching rotation which can and should carry a team to the World Series.
When you surround this pitching staff with a young core which includes Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Amed Rosario, there is a core of players which can not just make the World Series but win it. So yes, if we are talking about a core of players which can go through the postseason and win the World Series, the Mets have what it takes.
And yet, they don’t have the type of core which can carry them through the regular season. This team is at least one bat short. Maybe two. And that is before you even consider the bullpen.
That’s the real shame of it all. The Yankees have the talent but not the pitching, and that is partially the result of them getting gun shy when it came time to pull the trigger to obtain that ace which can carry a team through the postseason. The Mets have the pitching, and they have that young core, but they have ownership which gets gun shy when it comes time to getting a player they need to win.
In the end, the Mets have a better core of players which can carry you to the World Series, but it doesn’t really matter because unless things change, the Mets will be sitting on the sidelines watching this Yankees core squander away without a legitimate ace.
When the Mets hire a new General Manager, one of his, or in the case of Kim Ng getting the job, her, first duties is to decide if they want to retain Mickey Callaway as the Mets manager. Given how Callaway may come attached at the hip with Dave Eiland and seeing how this pitching rotation took off this year, you’d be inclined to keep Callaway on the job.
However, seeing Aaron Boone in Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS, we know a General Manager needs to look at much more than that. Basically, the new General Manager needs to assess not just if Callaway is the guy who can bring the Mets to the postseason, but he needs to assess if Callaway would stand as an impediment to the Mets winning a World Series.
In the regular season, we have seen some really good and really terrible things from Callaway and his coaching staff. The question is what is fixable and what are flaws which stand in the way.
The negatives have been oft discussed. There was the lineup card incident. Callaway had real difficulty handling the media. We saw him exhaust the bullpen, especially Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, early in the season. He was also not above continuing to go back to that well even with them being overused. At times, the lineups were outright baffling, and unlike some of his other issues, this was something which seemed to get worse (more traditional?) as the season progressed.
On the positive, the Mets players did progress. According to wRC+, Brandon Nimmo was the second best hitter in the National League. Michael Conforto returned to his All Star form. Amed Rosario went from potential bust to improving young player. Jeff McNeil emerged as an everyday second baseman. Lugo became a dominant reliever. As noted previously, the rotation improved. Mostly, this team did not quit even after the season was over after a 5-21 June.
We have also seen Callaway use analytics to inform his decisions. In April, he was started Juan Lagares because Jacob deGrom was a flyball pitcher, and the Cardinals starter, Michael Wacha, had reverse splits. Essentially, he is well versed in analytics, and he’s able to use them to inform his decision making.
He’s also an aggressive manager. On multiple occasions, he brought in a reliever to force the other managers hand. Instead of being reactive to another manager’s pinch hitting choice, Callaway ensured he brought in his better pitcher to get a worse hitter up at the plate thereby ensuring himself of the better match-up.
Essentially, there’s enough here to suggest Callaway is the right guy for the job, but make no mistake, it is not a clear-cut decision. While he was strong in motivating and developing players as well as being aggressive in his pitching decisions, his position player choices left something to be desired and arguably got worse as the season progressed.
In the end, if the Mets are going to keep him or replace him, they better be right.
Today was a special day regardless of the outcome because the Mets finally activated David Wright from the 60 day disabled list. That said, whatever chance we thought we would get to see him play were quickly dashed as the Mets said they were not going to pinch hit him. The reason given was the Braves are fighting for homefield advantage in the NLDS, and the Mets did not want to interfere with the integrity of that race.
While justified, you almost have to question how the Mets could take that stance and also use their bullpen in this game.
Through the first six innings, the Braves had just three hits to the Mets four. The difference between the two teams was the Mets made their hits count.
In the third, Michael Conforto followed a Jeff McNeil single with a ball which nearly left the ballpark.
https://twitter.com/mlbreplays/status/1044758130142453761?s=21
Conforto would score the second run of the inning on a Jay Bruce RBI single off Braves starter Touki Toussaint.
In the sixth, the Mets tacked on a run in a rally against Braves reliever Dan Winkler.
The rally began with a Brandon Nimmo walk, and he would eventually come home to score on a Tomas Nido sacrifice fly.
At 3-0, it appeared Noah Syndergaard was going to earn his first career win against the Braves. In his six scoreless innings, he would allow the aforementioned three hits with two walks and five strikeouts.
After 89 pitches and his being pinch hit for, Syndergaard was done after six. Robert Gsellman would relieve him and the bullpen meltdown would begin.
Johan Camargo led off the inning with a double, and he scored on a Kurt Suzuki RBI single. Suzuki moved to second on a Charlie Culberson walk, and he’d score because Austin Jackson flat out dropped a Rio Ruiz flyball.
Drew Smith, who has really struggled of late, came into the game and threw gasoline on the fire. Actually, with him being a pitcher, he just came in and threw bad pitches.
One of those pitches was thrown to the backstop allowing not just Suzuki to score, but also for Culbertson and Ruiz to move up. The next was hit by Ronald Acuna, Jr. for an RBI single which put the Braves up 4-3.
That 4-3 deficit grew as Jerry Blevins would have a rough eighth.
After getting the first out, Todd Frazier, who didn’t have a great game, booted a Camargo grounder. Camargo would then score on a Suzuki double. The capper would be a two run Ozzie Albies two run homer.
At that point, it was 7-3 Braves, and the game was over. While Wright was not used as to not upset the competitive balance of the postseason, the Mets bullpen was used and they did just that.
Game Notes: Wright homered in his last three games played in 2016, so whenever he plays, he will have a chance to match his career high in homering in four straight games.
Mets folk hero and utility player Wilmer Flores has been diagnosed with arthritis in both of his knees, and there are some indications the Mets are will non-tender him this offseason making him a free agent a year earlier than scheduled. In many ways, this seems like an odd decision.
For starters, the Mets have not shied away from giving money to injured and injury prone players. The Mets gave Yoenis Cespedes $110 million knowing he had calcified heels which would one day require surgical correction. In a similar circumstance to Flores, the Mets opted to keep Matt Harvey by giving him $5.625 million despite Harvey’s Tommy John, TOS, and stress reaction issues over the past four years.
Perhaps more analogous to the aforementioned situatiosn, the Mets gave Jay Bruce $39 million even though the team had no need for a left-hand hitting corner outfielder and Bruce having a history of knee issues. In fact, back in 2014, Bruce would have surgery to repair partially torn meniscus. As noted by UW Medicine, a torn meniscus could lead to arthritis. While we do not know if Bruce has arthritis or not, that is an assumed risk the Mets took despite having Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Brandon Nimmo on the 40 man roster.
When it comes to Bruce, what the Mets really cared about here was production and Bruce’s ability to stay on the field. It was a risk that backfired. What is interesting with Flores is he was able to stay on the field, and he was able to produce.
From June 15th until September 1st, Flores was an everyday player for the Mets. In that stretch, he hit .281/.325/.446 with 17 doubles, eight homers, and 35 RBI. Over this stretch, he had a 110 wRC+. Among players with 250 plate appearances over this stretch, that wRC+ was fourth best among MLB first basemen. It would have also ranked as fourth best among second baseman and sixth among third baseman.
Overall, Flores’ bat will play at any infield position. More than that, time and again, we have seen Flores is capable of taking over a position for an extended stretch of time while giving the Mets good production. That’s an important thing when the Mets actively signs players like Bruce who they will know will miss time.
When further analyzing the roster, you realize the Mets need Flores’ right-handed bat.
Looking at the projected 2019 roster, the Mets are going to heavily rely on left-handed bats. In addition to Bruce, Conforto, and Nimmo, the Mets also have Jeff McNeil. Outside of Todd Frazier, the Mets do not have any real right-handed power bats on the roster. It’s possible Amed Rosario could be that one day, but he’s not there yet.
Point being, when the Mets face a tough left-handed pitcher, they will need a player like Flores who they can put into the lineup. He could spell McNeil at second, or he could move over to first for Bruce. With respect to Bruce, it would help keep him fresher and hopefully more productive.
You could argue this spot could be filled by T.J. Rivera, but no one knows if he will be able to play next year. More than that, the Mets would be a stronger team with a stronger bench if they have both Flores and Rivera.
This is not to suggest Flores isn’t without his flaws. He is not a good defender at any position even if he is passable on the right side of the infield. While his knees have not forced him to the disabled list, he has been injury prone, even if they are freak injuries like him fouling a ball off his face.
Still, Flores is a player who is a perfect fit for this roster. More than that, he is a player who is a fan favorite, and he has shown himself to be clutch as well with him being the Mets all-time leader in walk-off RBI. Taking all of this into account, the Mets would be foolish to parts ways with Flores over a one-year commitment, especially when we know the Mets will not reinvest that money and sign a player anywhere near as good as Flores.
Like two nights ago, the Mets had the opportunity to take out one of the leading Cy Young candidates to help Jacob deGrom‘s Cy Young case. Like with the game against Aaron Nola, the Mets dealt a small blow but could not deliver the knockout punch.
The Mets did try. In the third, Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce went back-to-back to give the Mets a 3-0 lead.
Back-to-back home runs to raise the ERA of a #CyYoung candidate? That's a shame. ? #LGM pic.twitter.com/J7EWJzI2Oz
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 21, 2018
The one weakness in Max Scherzer‘s game this year was the long ball, and the Mets took full advantage. Conversely, the major strength in Scherzer’s game was the strikeout, and he mowed down the Mets.
After the Bruce homer, the Mets had just one hit and one walk, which did allow Scherzer to go seven. In total, Scherzer increased his lead over deGrom in innings and strikeouts, but his ERA rose .04.
For a while, it seemed as if the Mets were going to hit Scherzer with a loss because somehow someway Jason Vargas was out-pitching Scherzer.
The only damage against Vargas was an Anthony Rendon two run homer in the sixth. Seth Lugo, as part of his 1.1 innings, got the final out of the inning to preserve the 3-2 lead.
After Scherzer was pulled, the Mets immediately went to work against left-handed reliever Matt Grace.
Jeff McNeil hit a leadoff triple, and he’d come home on a Bruce single past the drawn-in infield to give the Mets a 4-2 lead. It wasn’t enough for this Mets bullpen.
Anthony Swarzak allowed the first two to reach in the bottom of the eighth, and Daniel Zamora would come on to face Bryce Harper. In the lengthy at-bat. Zamora would get the best of Harper who just missed out as he flew out to deep right field.
Maybe because it was because he opted to take the bullpen cart, but Robert Gsellman would surrender the lead. He first run came on a Rendon groundout, and the second scored on a Juan Soto RBI double.
With that, Scherzer was off the hook. With us living in a world where deGrom may win the Cy Young with a losing record, the loss was probably inconsequential.
The game would go extras, and the Mets seemed poised to end it early with them loading the bases in the 10th with just one out.
However, even with Greg Holland losing the strike zone having thrown seven straight balls, Jack Reinheimer swung at a 1-0 pitch and hit a soft tapper to Holland, who started the inning ending 1-2-3 double play.
In that 10th inning, McNeil was surprisingly sent up to bunt. In that at-bat, home plate umpire made a few very questionable strike calls, including ruling McNeil bunted at a pitch. This led Mickey Callaway to flip and earn his second career ejection.
In the 11th, Brandon Nimmo hit a leadoff double, and he would be stranded there.
What was surprising was how Jacob Rhame returned serve. After allowing a leadoff double to Ryan Zimmerman, who tagged up and moved to third on a Matt Wieters line out, Rhame would strike out Mark Reynolds and Victor Robles to end the inning.
Finally, in the 12th, the Mets retook the lead.
Amed Rosario led off the inning with a single off Jefry Rodriguez, and this time, McNeil would get the bunt down.
The bases were loaded after Conforto was intentionally walked, and Bruce walked after him. Jose Lobaton pinch hit for Rhame, and he delivered with a go-ahead sacrifice fly to give the Mets a 5-4 lead.
Paul Sewald was given the 12th, and he delivered his second career save with a 1-2-3 inning. Just because it was a 1-2-3 inning, it doesn’t mean it was uneventful.
After Heyward was called out on a pitch outside the strike zone, he argued the call, and he was tossed by Home Plate Umpire D.J. Reyburn. Heyward didn’t even bother going to the clubhouse. Instead, he watched the final out from the bench.
Come next week, Harper will join the Mets in watching games from the bench as the Nationals will soon be eliminated from the postseason.
Game Notes: Wilmer Flores was shut down for the rest of the year after being diagnosed with arthritis in his knees.