Brandon Nimmo
As has seemingly been the case since the dawn of time, the Mets played a big series against the Braves, and the Braves left them in the dust. Somehow, the Mets were not all that worse for ware:
1. Congratulations are due to Pete Alonso who tied Todd Hundley‘s and Carlos Beltran‘s Mets single season mark for homers. Of note, this broke his tie with Mike Piazza for single season homers by a right-handed batter.
2. That homer should’ve been a momentum change in Saturday’s game and for the rest of the series. Instead, due to the way the Mets played, it proved to be a footnote.
3. Speaking of historic footnotes, Jacob deGrom became the first ever pitcher to homer in a game where he struck out 13 batters twice in his career. In that game, the Mets struck out 26 tying a Major League record.
4. With the Yankees roughing up Hyun-Jin Ryu, we should be reminded the Cy Young race is still wide open. On that front, deGrom leads the league in bWAR, fWAR, and strikeouts while being top five in nearly every important statistical category.
5. Steven Matz has also been great recently. On Sunday, he ripped off his fourth straight start of at least six innings allowing two earned or fewer. Of course, with the way the Mets played in this series, he’d take the loss.
6. Two of the three losses were games Billy Hamilton had a huge impact. He got the game winning hit in one, and he scored from first on a single on what proved to be Ronald Acuna‘s game winning two RBI single.
7. One of the reasons Hamilton scored from first was J.D. Davis‘ not hustling in to field it and his weak throw back to the infield. It should be noted he’s a -7 DRS in left.
8. The only thing uglier than his defense was the uniforms this weekend. Seriously, what’s the point of having uniforms promoting players and their personalities if you can’t read them.
9. The only thing worse than that was not claiming Hamilton so you can keep having Aaron Altherr on the bench. To end the narratives, no, Hamilton would not have been designated for assignment when Jeff McNeil and/or Brandon Nimmo returned, especially with rosters expanding in September.
10. Nimmo’s recent rehab appearance looks promising. If he’s right, and Juan Lagares keeps hitting while playing Gold Glove defense, you have to wonder how long the Mets will be willing to live with Davis and his cooling bat in left.
11. No need to speak of Jed Lowrie‘s rehab until he plays consecutive days in the field or even a full game in the field.
12. On the topic of injuries, the Mets need to be heavily fined for how they handled Tomas Nido‘s concussion. He was hit on the head with the follow through of Josh Donaldson‘s back swing and went down. He had to be pulled then and not finish the inning with him then going through concussion protocol between innings. This is not okay.
13. This wasn’t the Mets only terrible decision. Mickey Callaway having Amed Rosario bunt was one of the dumbest decisions he’s made as Mets manager. He doubled down by overmanaging ordering a hit-and-run with Joe Panik. Panik swung and missed, and Rosario was caught at second easily.
14. There was also Callaway not pinch hitting Wilson Ramos for Rene Rivera. The decision made zero sense, and Rivera ended that rally.
15. That’s right, just like Carlos Gomez and Ruben Tejada, Rivera is back because nostalgia is apparently more fun than actual depth and winning.
16. On the Rivera point, Francisco Cervelli was released by the Pirates and was picked up by the Braves. Yes, he’s been bad, bout Nido was hitting .088/.162/.176 in the second half. With Ramos’ injury history, the Mets needed more depth, and they passed on that depth. Like with Hamilton, Cervelli made the Mets pay.
17. Brad Brach needs to be better. After allowing runs on three of his last five appearances, his 7.50 Mets ERA is higher than what it was with the Cubs before he was released. The Mets can’t afford for him to be this while Edwin Diaz is dealing with a trap issue. If he’s not, Paul Sewald May take his spot on the depth chart.
18. This series and history highlights why the Braves are the Mets biggest rival and should be the most hated team by Mets fans, not the Nationals.
19. If you’ve ever heard anyone scream about Brian Jordan, Mel Rojas, Kenny Rogers, or anything Armando Benitez and weren’t quite sure why the vitriol, just look at this series. Mets-Braves games in the late 90s were always like this series.
20. Feel depressed after watching this series? Don’t be. The Mets went from two games out of the Wild Card to two games out of the Wild Card. They’re now hosting the Cubs, the team currently in the second Wild Card spot, and they’re a bad road team.
Once again, I was privileged to join Tim Ryder and Jacob Resnick on the Simply Amazin Podcast. On the podcast, the players I recall mentioning were J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Travis d’Arnaud, Wilson Ramos, Joe Panik, Tomas Nido, Justin Wilson, Brad Brach, Seth Lugo, Jed Lowrie, Todd Frazier, and others. One of those others was Mel Rojas, whose name I completely blanked on during the podcast.
Please take a listen.
The Mets are seven games over .500 for the first time since May 1, 2018. Yes, that’s Two Thousand Eighteen. That’s where the Mets are after sweeping an Indians team which had apparently given the Yankees fits. This goes to show you just how well these Mets are playing right now:
1. Not too bad for a fringe postseason team, huh Cleveland?
2. One of the reasons why the Mets won this series, and one of the reasons why they have been winning games in the second half is how clutch they have been. Specifically, by wRC+, the Mets offense is the second best in the Majors in the second half from the seventh inning on.
3. The other reason is the bullpen has been terrific of late. Specifically, Justin Wilson has been great coming out of the bullpen, and he has been the guy Mickey Callaway trusts to get the Mets out of jams. For example, on Tuesday, he came into a situation with runners on first and second with one out, and he struck out Francisco Lindor and Oscar Mercado.
4. Wilson bailed Steven Matz out of a jam. This should serve to at least partially vindicate Callaway’s decision in Atlanta.
5. Matz is once again on one of those rolls where it seems he is one of the aces on this staff. In the second half, he’s 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, and a 4.75 K/BB. Ultimately, this is what Matz can be when he’s used properly by the manager, and he is spinning that curveball.
6. With his great pitching and Wilson bailing him out, Matz would get the win. He also got the win because Michael Conforto hit a huge go-ahead homer in the sixth.
7. As impressive as that homer was, Conforto did something all the more impressive the following day. He visited a children’s hospital to read to pediatric cancer patients, give them better hospital gowns, and overall just spend time with them. Stuff like that will always be more impressive than anything he does on the field.8
8. This really has become a team you enjoy rooting for game-in and game-out. Conforto gives time to pediatric cancer patients. Matz does all that work for first responders. Todd Frazier helped build a special needs baseball field in his home town. The list of the charitable endeavors from these players goes on and on.
9. With respect to Frazier, Gary Disarcina isn’t a very good third base coach. His send of Frazier on the wet dirt with Tyler Naquin‘s cannon in left was plain dumb, especially when he knows the Mets were going to pinch hit for Jeurys Familia in that spot.
10. Familia has been great of late, and he looks more and more like he should be reinserted into the closer’s role on the nights the Mets aren’t going to Seth Lugo to close it all out.
11. The Mets bullpen is emerging as the best in the National League right now. Lugo is the best reliever. With Familia, Wilson, and Brad Brach, they have battled tested relievers who are turning it on at the right time. Luis Avilan is as good as a LOOGY as there is right now. We’re even seeing Paul Sewald raise his game up a level.
12. The bullpen breaking out like that came at a key time as Marcus Stroman was lifted from the game due to a sore hamstring. On that note, what is it with the Mets and hamstrings of late?
13. It is good to see Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo on rehab assignments making their way back to the team. On Nimmo, he’s played three games in four days indicating his return is all the more close. When the Mets are healthy, they are going to have some interesting lineup decisions.
14. While we should be excited about the McNeil and Nimmo rehab appearances, the Jed Lowrie rehab assignment seems more like one of those old David Wright “rehab assignments.” Lowrie has only served as a DH, and Callaway has said they are doing that to play it safe. That doesn’t exactly sound like a guy charging his way back to the team.
15. With how great Juan Lagares has been playing of late, the Mets are probably best served platooning Todd Frazier and Joe Panik with McNeil bouncing between second and third. When Stroman pitches, the Mets should probably keep Frazier and Panik on the infield with McNeil in the outfield to optimize the outfield defense.
16. You can understand riding out this J.D. Davis hot streak for as long as it goes, but when this team is fully healthy, he belongs on the bench because Conforto and Nimmo are simply better baseball players.
17. When Davis made that catch in left field, there were memories of Mike Baxter, and it made you think for a second Noah Syndergaard was going to pitch that perfect game.
18. Syndergaard has been great of late, and he is giving Jacob deGrom a run for his money as to who the best ptcher is on this staff right now. Syndergaard is currently on a stretch where he has eight straight quality starts. In that stretch, he has a 1.82 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, and a 9.1 K/9. This is exactly what he was in 2016.
19. Here’s a fun and interesting thought: With the way the Mets starters are pitching, who do you possibly remove from the rotation when the Mets face off against the Dodgers in the NLDS?
20. The Mets have an opportunity to slay a lot of demons from the late nineties in this weekend series against the Braves. While the Braves may have a Freddie Freeman, they no longer have Chipper Jones or Brian Jordan. To that end, the Mets no longer have Armando Benitez or Mel Rojas. This should (hopefully) be a fun series.
So far this season, Aaron Altherr is hitting .085/.141/.169 (-20 wRC+) in 47 games this season. Last year, Altherr played 105 games for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he hit .181/.295/.333 (75 wRC+). As on outfielder this year, Altherr has a -1 DRS in 127.1 innings, and he was a 1 DRS in 524.1 innings last year. That followed a -4 DRS in 837.1 innings in 2017.
Taking everything into account, Altherr is a bad baseball player, and he has been one for two years now. Despite that, the Mets have continued to keep him on the roster, and they do little to challenge his roster status.
When Jeff McNeil went down, the Mets had a need for someone who could fill-in in the outfield. Instead of a Dilson Herrera who has some outfield experience, the Mets instead went with Ruben Tejada, who was no threat to taking away his outfield reps. The team also didn’t call-up Rajai Davis, who also could have presented a threat.
On Davis, most fans remember his Uber ride and his hitting a pinch hit homer. What they don’t see is his hitting .287/.334/.410 with Triple-A Syracuse. That’s not as good as the .274/.384/.565 batting line Altherr put up in admittedly far fewer games with Syracuse. On the one hand, that makes the Mets decision to go with Altherr over Davis defensible. However, it is still curious why you would not even challenge Altherr when you needed that extra outfielder.
What’s all the more baffling is how the Mets let Billy Hamilton go to the Braves.
There are many things you can say about Hamilton and his deficiencies as a player. In 93 games with the Royals this year, Hamilton hit .211/.275/.269 (44 wRC+). That’s actually a step backwards for him as he hit .239/.299/.327 (69 wRC+) in 153 games for the Reds last year. No matter how you look at it, Hamilton is a bad hitter. Terrible actually.
That makes the fact he’s been a significantly better hitter than Altherr all the worse. Hamilton is also a much better outfielder. In fact, Hamilton is an elite defensive outfielder. In 716.1 innings this year, Hamilton has a 9 DRS. Since he was called up in 2013, his 60 DRS trails only Lorenzo Cain among qualifying center fielders.
Right there, Hamilton is a significantly better hitter and fielder than Altherr. When you factor in Hamilton’s great speed and base running, you realize Hamilton does EVERYTHING better than Altherr. Everything.
With rosters expanding in September, and the Mets depth depleted to the point where they have to not only carry Altherr on the roster but also play him, there is zero reason to not put in a claim for Hamilton. He was a significant upgrade, and he was someone the Mets were going to be able to carry on the roster into September. If the Mets were lucky enough to make the postseason, Hamilton would have been a huge weapon as a late inning pinch runner and/or defensive replacement.
Go back and ask the 1969 Mets about the Ron Swoboda and Tommie Agee catches. Go back and ask the 2004 Red Sox about Dave Roberts stealing a base. The ability or a player to make that one impact can make all the difference in the world. Instead, the Mets just let Hamilton go to the Braves, who were lower in the waiver priority, unchallenged.
The Braves will get the benefit of his base running and defense while the Mets cross their fingers on Brandon Nimmo being able to return from a bulging disc in his neck. They’re also hoping Dominic Smith, who is still in a walking boot and using a knee scooter, can return. They’re hoping J.D. Davis‘ leg won’t continue to be an issue. Same for McNeil, who has gone from being able to immediately come off the 10 day IL to needing a rehab stint. There’s also Jed Lowrie, a player who has fewer pictures of him in a Mets uniform than people have photos of Big Foot or the Lockness Monster.
Going into the season, Brodie Van Wagenen kept telling us the Mets were all-in, and the team would have no ifs. It’s August 20, and the team wouldn’t go all-in on improving their roster, and they are seeing IF one of their injured players could contribute. Mostly, they’ve decided the team is better with Altherr, who has been terrible for over a year now, than any of the better alternatives . . . like Hamilton.
On Sunday, I was invited to join Tim Ryder for the Simply Amazin podcast to discuss the series against the Royals as well as other Mets matters. Off the top of my head, I remember mentioning J.D. Davis, Pete Alonso, Ruben Tejada, Brandon Nimmo, Dilson Herrera, Aaron Altherr, Amed Rosario, Seth Lugo, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Luis Avilan, Jeff McNeil, Joe Panik, Juan Lagares, Dominic Smith, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, Rajai Davis, Luis Guillorme, and others.
Please take a listen and keep an eye (or ear) out for Thursday when I’m next scheduled to appear.
According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, Brandon Nimmo may soon be beginning a rehab assignment which would put him on a schedule to hopefully return to the Mets lineup before September, and at least before the end of the season. If you are skeptical he could return, after all Nimmo had a rehab assignment earlier this year which did not end well, his wife offers hope as well:
https://twitter.com/chelseajnimmo/status/1159644990580150273?s=20
If Nimmo is back, the Mets are a significantly improved team. It’s easy to forget, but Nimmo is one of the best players on this team.
Last year, Nimmo was the second best offensive player in the National League with a 149 wRC+. Despite getting injured during Spring Training, Nimmo was on his way to repeating his 2018 season. Through the first 17 games of the season, he was hitting .241/.388/.463 before being removed from the April 16 game against the Phillies after getting hit on the hand.
Up until that point, he had a a great 16.1 percent walk rate, and he was still a magnet getting hit by a pitch twice. Even with the struggles which ensued from getting hit on the hand and his neck, Nimmo maintained that 16.1 percent walk rate. Put another way, the skills which made him a great hitter in 2018 were still present in 2019 even with the injuries.
Taking that into account, Nimmo is a significant upgrade to the Mets outfield situation. It’s not just over Juan Lagares or Aaron Altherr, both of whom are not performing this year. It is also over Dominic Smith (who is also on the IL) and J.D. Davis. While Smith and Davis are good stories this year, they are not better than Nimmo and certainly not as an outfielder.
Putting that aside, Nimmo gives the Mets actual outfield depth and options. With him as an outfield option, Jeff McNeil can move to second base if needed. This gives more options for late inning double switches and defensive substitutions. With Nimmo returning, this will be the best Mets bench since the 2015 bench with Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Michael Cuddyer, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Wilmer Flores/Ruben Tejada.
Nimmo returning makes the starting lineup better. It deepens the bench giving the team more options. It takes a Mets team already in contention, and it makes them even better. When Nimmo returns, we may be talking much differently about this club and their chances of making the postseason and doing damage in the postseason.
This past week I appeared on the Simply Amazin’ podcast to discuss a number of issues facing the Mets right now.
During the podcast I mentioned Anthony Kay, Ali Sanchez, Vince Coleman, Mackey Sasser, T.J. Rivera, Noah Syndergaard, David Peterson, Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario, Ryley Gilliam, Steve Villines, Andres Gimenez, Juan Centeno, and others.
Please click the link and listen.
The Mets took two out of three against the Padres. It is something which should have further propelled them into the Wild Card race. However, after losing three out of four to the Giants, it matters little. Of course, with all things Mets right now, it’s the off the field stuff which really matters.
1. Take all the pitchers across Major League history. I may just take Jacob deGrom in a daytime start over all of them.
2. In 2020, deGrom and Noah Syndergaard should be the best 1-2 punch in baseball, but they won’t be because the Mets are grossly incompetent, and they will look to trade Syndergaard for well under value. What’s humorous about that is the smartest teams in baseball are lining up begging the Mets to be stupid and trade him.
3. The amount of Mets fans who are happy to see Syndergaard traded and can’t recognize the greatness of a top 20 FIP pitcher in a down year is bizarre. Hopefully, these people enjoy watching Walker Lockett pitch every fifth day next year.
4. After the fiasco of trading Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to the Mariners, you would think the Mets would refrain from making bold moves with young talent. But no, they’re going to do something stupid again.
5. Speaking of that trade, Robinson Cano had a three home run game snapping a 3-for-21 stretch. After the game, he would go 1-for-5. These good moments are fleeting.
6. This is a New York baseball franchise, and they are talking about Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler as an either/or proposition and not a as locking up both to win now and in the future. It is emabarassing Major League Baseball allows this to continue especially with the Wilpons pocketing the insurance proceeds from Yoenis Cespedes and David Wright and leveraging the Mets/SNY to keep themselves personally solvent and invest in the Overwatch League.
7. Dominic Smith had a very bad day in left field during Syndergaard’s start. That’s two poor days in the past week. The only conclusion we should draw from this was he’s inexperienced and the Mets decision not to give him time to prepare to be the left fielder during the offseason, Spring Training, and during the regular season was myopic and stupid.
8. No one knows yet if Smith can be capable in left field, but what we have learned with him is we should never count him out.
9. Another point here is the Mets should stick with Smith for the rest of the year as there are no other options on the roster at least until Brandon Nimmo returns. Of course, that assumes he can return at some point this year. Considering his injury and how poorly the Mets handled it, that’s not a safe assumption.
10. Pete Alonso has had a difficult time after the All-Star Break hitting just .125/.333/.350. He’s falling into the same bad habits pulling the ball and striking out which led to his not getting called up at the end of last year. His defense is also slipping of late.
11. It is way too soon to be concerned about Alonso. After all, he followed a bad May with a great June. On the front, we should only caution we do not know where he true talent level lies at the Major League level or what type of player he will be with teams making adjustments pitching to him.
12. The only untouchable players in trades should be deGrom, Syndergaard, and Jeff McNeil. They are the only three players without a suitable replacement for what they do, and the Mets depth chart does not allow them to easily replace them on the roster.
13. With every passing day, the thing which becomes most clear is the Mets need a center fielder. Looking forward, there isn’t going to be one on the free agent market, so before people go up in arms about being willing to trade Alonso, they should first ask themselves the following questions: (1) How do you propose you get a center fielder? (2) Is this team better as is, or would they be better with Smith at first and really good center fielder?
14. Alonso needs to pick it up because he is in danger of getting passed in the Rookie of the Year competition. Recently, Fernando Tatis Jr. has narrowed the WAR gap, and he is surging.
15. Why are the Mets surprised on the lack of interest in Todd Frazier? In addition to him struggling in July, the teams in contention are fairly set at third, and we know the Mets don’t eat money to help facilitate deals or to get better returns.
16. Somewhere M. Donald Grant is laughing while watching Brodie Van Wagenen and Jeff Wilpon make a mockery of this proud franchise. Seriously, this combination may be worse than Grant, and Grant is the person who facilitated the Tom Seaver trade and the Midnight Massacre.
17. Michael Conforto has arguably been the Mets best hitter in the second half which should come as no surprise as he’s a very good hitter. Mets fans really don’t appreciate just how good a player he is.
18. Even with Juan Lagares going 2-for-4 yesterday, he looks done as a baseball player. If so, that’s a sad end to not just an exciting player to watch, but a real hard worker who busted it everyday. Hopefully, this is a one year blip, and he lands on his feet somewhere next year.
19. The Mets have a very talented young core with no hope of winning this year and really the next few years. This is the worst place to be a franchise, and it is a terrible spot to be in as a fan. Again, the Wilpons are incompetent owners, and they put an agent in charge instead of Chaim Bloom. I really don’t know what fans did to deserve this level of incompetence.
20. It’s funny how the Mets are now considering trading Edwin Diaz. Doing so would be to hit the reset button on a terrible trade. An even better idea would be to hit the reset button on a terrible hire and replace Van Wagenen with a capable General Manager.
In 2016, the Wild Card picture was all jumbled up like it is now with the Mets having a favorable second half schedule and a need to leapfrog a number of teams. That season turned around with a road trip to San Francisco.
Tonight, the Mets began a similarly pivotal series in San Francisco. Like in 2016, we would get Noah Syndergaard against Madison Bumgarner, and like last time, we’d get a real pitcher’s duel.
Jeff McNeil hit the first pitch of the game for a double, and he moved to third on a J.D. Davis single. This allowed him to score on a Pete Alonso double play. The Mets had a 1-0 lead, but Bumgarner would go on to retire 13 in a row after the Davis single.
Things were not as easy for Syndergaard, but he’d have equally as impressive results.
In the second, he worked around an Alex Dickerson leadoff triple. In the third, he worked around a Brandon Belt two out double. On the double, Juan Lagares couldn’t make a play on it reminding us all he’s no longer that type of defender anymore.
The Giants finally got to Syndergaard in the fourth loading the bases with one out. Fortunately, due to Pablo Sandoval making Sid Bream look like Usain Bolt, he was held up on a Mike Yastrzemski single. He would however score on a Kevin Pillar sacrifice fly. On the play, Davis misplayed it forcing him to make a leap, and thankfully, he came down with it.
Syndergaard would have to summon the magic again in the seventh. This time, it was Yastrzemski who led off the inning with a triple. After a Pillar ground out to the drawn in Todd Frazier, Joe Panik was intentionally walked to set up a double play and bring Bumgarner to the plate.
The decision was made easier with no one warming in the Giants bullpen. However, the strategy was rendered moot with Panik stealing second on a 3-1 pitch. There was no throw from Tomas Nido due to his framing the pitch and the jump Panik got with Syndergaard not even bothering to keep Panik close.
It would up not mattering as Syndergaard struck out Bumgarner, and he got Belt to fly out to end the inning. At 108 pitches, he was done after a strong and gutty performance. Like three years ago, the Mets were going to the bullpen, and Bumgarner pitched nine brilliant innings.
Fortunately, Conor Gillaspie hasn’t played baseball since 2017. As a result, we’d see Seth Lugo pitch a scoreless eighth and Luis Avilan pitch a scoreless ninth to send the game into extras. This would mean the Mets would get into the Giants bullpen.
Robinson Cano led off the 10th with a single off Will Smith. Amed Rosario then continued his torrid July with a hit. Cano would actually go first to third on the single to left, and with Alex Dickerson throwing to third, Rosario went to second on what was ruled a double.
Nido struck out, and Wilson Ramos, the last right-handed bat on the bench, pinch hit for Lagares. He was intentionally walked to load the bases, and Michael Conforto pinch hit for Avilan, and he struck out putting the inning on McNeil. In uncharacteristic fashion McNeil struck out to end the inning.
Overall, it was a bizarre inning for Mickey Callaway (or the texting Brodie Van Wagenen). Instead of pinch hitting Ramos for Nido, he pinch hit for Lagares. Then, he pinch ran Luis Guillorme for some reason thereby burning him and Ramos.
Edwin Diaz came on for the 10th, and he worked his way around a leadoff walk showing he can in fact pitch in tie games. That paved the way for Jeurys Familia to pitch the 11th. Again, Gillaspie wasn’t coming off that bench, and as such, Familia pitched a scoreless inning despite him pitching his third game in as many days.
With the options dwindling, Callaway double switched Robert Gsellman into the game with Dominic Smith going to right, McNeil going to second, and Cano being done for the night.
After Gsellman pitched a scoreless 12th, the Mets got something brewing in the 13th against Derek Holland, who had pitched 1.2 innings yesterday. He was pulled with runners at the corners and two outs for Trevor Gott with Alonso coming up to the plate.
That’s the benefit of Bumgarner going nine. As a result, Bruce Bochy can play the matchups in the 13th. That ability led to an Alonso fly out to end the jam. With that flyout, Alonso was 0-for-6 on the night.
Because of the curious decision to pinch run Guillorme earlier in the game, Steven Matz pinch hit for Gsellman in the 14th after Gsellman’s two scoreless innings.
Justin Wilson got himself into trouble in the 14th with a lead off walk, which was actually first and second with two outs. He was bailed out by a terrible check swing third strike call against Pillar, and then with the Giants without position players, he got to face and strike out tomorrow’s (today’s?) starter Tyler Beede to end the jam.
Williams Jerez came on for the 15th for the Giants, and he was in immediate trouble walking Nido and allowing a one out single to Conforto. For third time in extras, McNeil had a chance to get the big hit. This time he hit into a 3-6 fielder’s choice. Davis would follow with a foul out.
In the bottom of the 15th, Chris Mazza, a 29 year old rookie who pitched two innings in the previous game, entered to pitch. He got through the inning setting the stage for Alonso to get his first hit in his seven at-bats:
To the seagulls and beyond! pic.twitter.com/y4ueAKXIBL
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 19, 2019
Because baseball is a cruel sport, Dickerson and Crawford hit back-to-back doubles to begin the 16th to tie the game, and Mazza hit Austin Slater. Of course, there was no other option than Mazza with Rhame serving his suspension, so he and he alone had to get out of it.
Pillar singled to load the bases with no outs. This meant the Mets went to five infielders and drew everyone in. It didn’t matter as Donovan Solano hit one past Alonso to end the Mets four game winning streak.
This is as soul crushing as it gets.
Game Notes: Brandon Nimmo has begun baseball activities, but he’s still about a month away from a rehab assignment. Jacob Rhame‘s appeal was heard, and his suspension was reduced to one game making him unavailable for this game.
The Mets begin the second half of the season 10 games under .500 and 13.5 games back of the Braves for the division. They are only six games ahead of the Marlins for the worst record in the National League and seven games behind the second Wild Card with nine teams ahead of them. Suffice it to say, things are bleak, and the Mets are going to be in a position to sell rentals like Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, and Jason Vargas.
Still, being Mets fans, we have examples in team history where they have overcome long odds like these to reach the postseason. The 1973 Mets entered the All Star Break nine games under .500 and six games out of first place. Even more recently, the 2016 Mets entered the All Star Break six games out of first place. That team would be two games under .500 and 5.5 games out of a postseason spot on August 19th. They would finish the season on a tear and claim the top Wild Card.
Based on history, we can see there is always a chance. The question now is do the 2019 Mets actually have a chance. Looking at everything, you could paint a scenario where they do.
The first thing to look at is the Mets schedule. Right now, the Mets have six games against the Phillies and three against the Nationals. With both teams currently having a Wild Card spot, this gives the Mets a chance to get closer in the Wild Card race by beating their direct competition.
Beyond the head-to-head match-ups, the Mets do have a weak second half schedule. Right off the bat is a 10 game road trip featuring three against the last place Marlins and four against the last place Giants. In fact, the Mets have 18 games remaining against teams who are currently in last place.
Looking further, 36 of the Mets remaining 72 games are against teams with a .500 record or worse. That’s half of their games. So far this year, the Mets have fared well in those games. In their 21 games against second division clubs, they are 13-8 (.619). Now, to make up the deficits, the Mets are going to have to play at a higher clip than that. It’s certainly possible, especially with 11 of those 36 games coming against teams currently 20+ games under .500.
The Mets also have six more games at home than they do on the road. This is an important point because the Mets have actually played over .500 at home with a .548 winning percentage.
That schedule certainly lines up well for the Mets to have a big second half for a second year in a row. Remember, last year, the Mets were eight games over .500 in the second half last year, and as Noah Syndergaard will tell you, the Mets are a second half team.
That is partially the result of how their players perform. Syndergaard’s career second half ERA is 38 points lower, Jacob deGrom‘s K/BB improves considerably in the second half, and Steven Matz strikes out 1.4 batters more per nine. Michael Conforto‘s second half career OPS is 65 points higher, and Robinson Cano‘s is 55 points higher.
Speaking of Cano, the Mets have had a number of under-performing players who had an opportunity to clear their heads and fix things for the second half. The Mets will be a significantly better team with Cano returning or coming much closer to career averages. The same can be said of Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia.
There is also the chance the Mets finally get that Amed Rosario breakout. The Mets could also potentially get help from a rookie like Anthony Kay. Overall, for the Mets to have any shot, they need players like this to raise their games with the veterans stepping up their performances. With that schedule, maybe, must maybe, the Mets could contend in the second half.
However, this is asking a lot. In addition to everyone stepping up, the Mets need Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Dominic Smith to keep up a very high level of performance. If they want to contend, they will have to hang onto Wheeler, which given their place in the standings is flat out irresponsible.
All things considered it is fun to imagine, but the chances of it all happening are remote. Really, the best we can hope for is Brodie Van Wagenen executing smart deadline deals with Jed Lowrie and Brandon Nimmo healing and being ready to put forth strong 2020 campaigns.