Asdrubal Cabrera
After Matt Harvey‘s terrific start last night, most Mets fans were a little more optimistic about Zack Wheeler‘s first start after missing two years due to his Tommy John surgery.
That optimism crew to a crescendo after Wheeler’s first inning of work. He was getting it up to 98 MPH. He struck out A.J. Ellis and Christian Yelich to end the inning.
Wheeler got his lead in the bottom of the first when Curtis Granderson got a two out RBI single off Marlis starter Wei-Yin Chen to score Asdrubal Cabrera. It was already Granderson’s second two out hit with RISP this season. He had four all of last year.
At this point, the Mets were looking good. It was too soon to say the Mets were in control, but based on the first inning, confidence was building.
Unfortunately, Wheeler would struggle the rest of the game. In the second, Derek Dietrich hit a two run triple giving the Marlins the lead. He later scored on an Adeiny Hechavarria RBI groundout.
The third inning saw Yelich hit a two run homer off the right field could pole increasing the Marlins lead to 5-1. Dating back to last season, Yelich has homered in his last four games at Citi Field.
By the end of the fourth, Wheeler threw 80 pitches, and he was done for the night. His final line was four innings, six hits, five runs, five earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.
There were plenty of reasons for the struggles; the least of which was Wheeler hasn’t pitched in over two years. It was a cold and very windy night. The outfielders were fighting every fly ball. Wheeler couldn’t get an off speed pitch over the plate. He seemed to lose his velocity after the first inning. Another factor was he was supposed to be in Extended Spring Training to work on these things.
Still, there were some positive signs for Wheeler, and it is something he can build upon.
Unfortunately, the same thing can’t be said for Josh Smoker who really struggled when he took over for Wheeler in the fifth. By the way, this was the spot for Montero because you’re looking for your long man, but that’s Terry for you.
Smoker was first done in as Yoenis Cespedes misread a ball hit by Yelich. Smoker followed that by issuing back-to-back walks to Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour. Marcell Ozuna and Dietrich followed with RBI singles. After throwing 27 pitches, Smoker was done leaving the bases loaded with one out.
Surprisingly, Rafael Montero bailed out Smoker by getting Hechavarria to ground into the 1-2-3 double play.
If you’re looking for a bright spot on the night, it was definitely Montero. Montero came in and attacked the Marlins hitters. Overall, he pitched 2.2 innings yielding just one hit and two walks while striking out two. This was an important outing for both him and the Mets. He needed this outing considering his previous outing, Wheeler’s struggles, and the injuries to Seth Lugo and Steven Matz.
The Mets had a chance to get back in the game with Granderson and Neil Walker hitting consecutive one out singles. Jay Bruce ended the rally grounding into the inning ending 6-4-3 double play.
It was just one of those nights. Simply put when Montero and Josh Edgin are your best pitchers, it’s not going to be a good night. To be fair, Montero and Edgin were quite good. Offensively, the only highlight was Granderson who was 2-4 with an RBI.
Well, that and Cespedes homered in the eighth. It was his first of the year.
.@ynscspds crushes his first homer of the year!
7-2 Miami | Bot-8 pic.twitter.com/gJQmOM9UTp
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 8, 2017
This game was the epitome of “you can’t win ’em all.” The game was so bad, GKR was flipping through baseball cards and discussing pizza toppings. Mets just need to forget about this 7-2 loss and get ready for tomorrow night’s game.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes went 0-5 tonight putting him at 1-18 on the year. Still, it was Lucas Duda who sat in favor of Wilmer Flores. Rene Rivera started in place of Travis d’Arnaud because Terry perceived Rivera and Wheeler worked well together and to combat the Marlins running game. Wheeler allowed five runs over four innings, and Dee Gordon stole a base.
With the injuries to both Steven Matz and Seth Lugo, the safety net was gone. Not only did Matt Harvey have to begin the year in the rotation, but he was going to have to be the Harvey of old to give the Mets a chance to fulfill their hopes of reclaiming the National League East.
During Spring Training, that was far from a certainty. His velocity and confidence were all over the place. It was not until the end of Spring Training that Harvey began to look more like his old self. Still, when he took the mound on a cold wet night, there was doubt as to what we would be.
Harvey was great.
Now, it wasn’t quite the Harvey of old. He featured his two seamer more almost scrapping his four seamer. Instead of being in the upper 90s, he was sitting mostly at 94. He pitched more to contact than rack up the strikeouts. Still, his secondary pitches were there, especially his vaunted slider. With that, he might not have been the 2013 or 2015 Harvey, but he was still great.
His only mistake was a thigh high fastball to Matt Kemp who deposited the pitch into the left field seats giving the Braves a 1-0 lead.
In a rare sight for a pitcher who has historically gotten low run support, the Mets responded right away in the bottom of the fifth.
Neil Walker finally got his first hit of the year. The red hot Jay Bruce followed with a single of his own. Both would score on Travis d’Arnaud‘s RBI double.
It was a huge hit for d’Arnaud bot just because it gave the Mets the lead, but also because it was his first RBI off a left-handed pitcher since September 14, 2015. That’s not a typo – d’Arnaud had no RBIs off a left-handed pitcher last year. In what is a huge year for d’Arnaud, he got his first big hit.
In the sixth, Wilmer Flores, who absolutely kills left-handed pitching, hit a two run homer right down the left field line off Jaime Garcia to give the Mets a 4-1 lead.
https://twitter.com/mets/status/850148178263408640
Those four runs were enough for Harvey. Harvey lasted 6.2 innings allowing three hits, two runs, two earned, no walks, and four strikeouts. Two of his four strikeouts came in the seventh as he was pushing towards the finish line. He was then chased by Kemp’s second homer of the night.
You honestly could not have expected more from Harvey. He was economical throwing just 77 pitches. He pitched to contact and enduced weak contact. He dominated. With that, the Mets rotation looks great again.
Jerry Blevins got the last out of the inning before turning it over to Fernando Salas and Addison Reed. Salas faced a bases loaded two out jam, but he was able to get out of it by striking out Swanson.
There would be no save opportunity as the Mets added two in the seventh to make it a 6-2 game. Asdrubal Cabrera singled home Michael Conforto, who was hit by a pitch when pinch hitting for Blevins. Later in the inning, Reyes scored when Dansby Swanson threw the ball offline trying to complete a double play on the Yoenis Cespedes grounder.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes got his first base hit after having started the year going 0-12. Flores got the start over Lucas Duda with the left-handed pitcher on the mound. Tim Tebow hit an opposite field home run in his first at-bat for Columbia
Breaking: Tim Tebow homers in his first at-bat. Are you kidding me? pic.twitter.com/tzal9jtvyH
— Mike Uva (@Mike_Uva) April 6, 2017
Through 20 innings, the Mets have only scored in two of them. Most of their runs have been scored when Eric O’Flaherty took the mound on Opening Day. As the Mets don’t get to face the O’Flahertys of the world 162 games in a season, some doubt can begin to creep into fans minds about this offense.
With 160 games left on the schedule, it is way too soon to panic. And yet . . . .
There are some obvious flaws with this offense. Notably, this is not a team that gets on base. This is important because getting on base is usually a prerequisite for scoring a run. Here are the OBP for the Mets lineup over the past three seasons:
- Jose Reyes .321
- Asdrubal Cabrera .319
- Yoenis Cespedes .326
- Curtis Granderson .342
- Neil Walker .338
- Jay Bruce .295
- Lucas Duda .344
- Travis d’Arnaud .314
According to Baseball Reference, the major league average OBP last year was .322. This means half of the Mets lineup is under the league average. Now matter how you may try to justify it, that’s not good.
Now, there are some caveats to the above-listed OBPs. Since joining the Mets, Cespedes has a .348 OBP. Since being reunited with Kevin Long, Granderson’s is .350. Cabrera (.339) and Walker (.346) have each seen similar upticks working with Long.
It’s a small sample size, but Bruce has certainly looked like an improved hitter this season. Surprisingly, we drew three walks on Opening Day.
Duda’s OBP is skewed due to an injury plagued year last year. Eliminate last year, and Duda has a .350 OBP. Skewing in the opposite direction, d’Arnaud had a .340 OBP in 2015.
Point is that while there are red flags all around this offense, there is still reason to believe this team can start clicking offensively. It’s a long season which gives the Mets a long time to figure things out.
Still, we need to keep in the back of our minds, there’s a reason the Mets players have put up poor OBPs over the course of the prior three seasons.
Overall, this means Kevin Long, Pat Roessler, and the entire Mets team have their work cut out for them. If they don’t address this OBP issue, the Mets are going to struggle offensively like they did in much of 2015 and 2016.
If they do address the issue, the Mets will have quite the formidable offense. It’ll be one that can carry you to the postseason. It could be one that brings home a World Series.
But that’s getting ahead of ourselves. Before getting to the World Series, the Mets need to focus on getting to first base. As we see that may be easier said than done.
For a Mets team that brought in no new players this offseason, it is quite fitting this team picked right up where they left off last season. For those that forgot, and how could you, Noah Syndergaard was dominant, and the Mets couldn’t get that big hit off the other team’s ace.
Today, Syndergaard was dominant. His final line was six innings, five hits, no runs, none earned, no walks, and seven strikeouts. Basically, he was just as dominant as he was in his last game only he pitched one less inning. He pitched one less inning as he had to depart with a blister on his pitching thumb. Again, the Mets are picking up where they left off last year.
Overall, Syndergaard was up to his old tricks. Fastballs at 99 MPH. Change-ups and sliders between 90 – 94 MPH. Hitters frustrated and overmatched. The real surprise is that he had to get out of two separate jams. In the fourth, he worked around a one out triple off the bat of Freddie Freeman (ball was played terribly by Jay Bruce in right) by striking out Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis.
In the sixth, Syndergaard had runners at the corners with one out. Again, he struck out Kemp by keeping the ball low in the zone. He then induced a harmless fly ball off the bat of Markakis to end the inning.
Offensively, the Mets struggled against Julio Teheran. While Teheran was 7-10 last year, he is a terrific pitcher whose record really was hindered by a lack of run support. In addition to the 7-10 record, Teheran had a 3.21 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 129 ERA+, and an 8.0 K/9. Against the Mets last year, he was 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, and a 5.4 K/9 in four starts. Struggling against him is certainly no red flag.
And yet, if you are a pessimistic Mets fan, you saw some troubling signs. The team did rack up six strikeouts in six innings. There were seven left on base, and the team was 0-3 with RISP. The main culprit there was Lucas Duda who twice came up with a chance to knock in a run and both times he came up short.
With Syndergaard leaving with a blister and Teheran leaving due to his pitch count, the game became a battle of the bullpens. Fortunately, the Mets, even without the suspended Jeurys Familia have a terrific bullpen. Hansel Robles added a slight hesitation in his delivery to go with the quick pitch, and he mowed down the Braves in the seventh.
The deja vu would end in the seventh. With Ian Krol allowing a lead-off hit to Rene Rivera, Wilmer Flores hit into a fielder’s choice, and he stole second off Tyler Flowers. After Jose Reyes walked, Asdrubal Cabrera lined a single up the middle, and Flores was sent home. Center fielder Ender Inciarte nailed Flores at the plate.
Or did he?
https://twitter.com/MLBReplays/status/848986918343725056
Upon replay, it shows Flores just got his foot in front of the tag from the way too far behind home plate Flowers. With that, the Mets got the lead and momentum. After Yoenis Cespedes walked to load the bases, Curtis Granderson hit a sacrifice fly off former Met Eric O’Flaherty to make it a 2-0 lead. He then walked Neil Walker and Jay Bruce back-to-back to force in a run to make it 3-0.
While Bruce had a misplay in right field, it was a very encouraging day for him. On the day, he had four good at-bats going 0-1 with three walks and an RBI. He looked more patient at the plate and more willing to take a walk. If he continues this for the full season, its going to be a huge year for him.
After the Bruce walk, Duda finally got a hit with runners in scoring position with a bases clearing double off of O’Flaherty.
The Dude delivers! Duda drives in 3 to extend our lead! https://t.co/AljU6eO0rH pic.twitter.com/vY4CTB9sBz
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 3, 2017
O’Flaherty’s work in the seventh inning was the most he has done to help the Mets than all he had done for them in 2015. His final line was 0.1 innings, one hit, two runs, two earned, three walks, and no strikeouts. For Mets fans, it was nice being on the other side of an O’Flaherty outing.
In the fateful seventh, the Mets sent 11 batters to the plate, and the team scored six runs on three hits, five walks, and a sacrifice fly. Basically, this Mets team featuring a number of smart veteran hitters feasted on a poor bullpen. With the six run seventh, Robles would be the winning pitcher.
Cabrera was easily the best Mets player on the day . . . well, Mets player not named Noah Syndergaard. He went 3-4 with an RBI and a stolen base. It was a refreshing change of pace from the Cabrera who seemingly went the first half of the 2016 season without a hit with RISP.
Cabreras wasn’t the only one in midseason form. Gary, Keith, and Ron were great today including them honoring the late Bill Webb. Keith Hernandez told a terrific story about how Webb used to get Keith fined $100 by filming him smoking in the first base tunnel. Keith deadpanned about how all Mets fans knew he used to smoke.
Overall, this was about as good a start to the 2017 season as you reasonably could have asked for. While you were obviously concerned about Syndergaard leaving the game with a blister, you had to be encouraged by Robert Gsellman entering the game in the ninth because Gsellman would be the guy to start in Syndergaard’s place should there be an issue serious enough to cause him to need to miss a start.
After Gsellman’s scoreless ninth, the Mets are 1-0 and in first place where we expect them to be after Game 162. The win also improves the team’s MLB best Opening Day record, which is now 35-21.
Game Notes: Mets fans complain about d’Arnaud, but Flowers is much worse. Both Cabrera and Flores were able to steal bases off of him. In his first Opening Day with the Mets since 2011, Jose Reyes was 0-3 with a run, walk, and two strikeouts. Reyes also became the first Met since Ty Wigginton to be the Mets Opening Day third baseman other than David Wright. Travis d’Arnaud entered the game in the sixth inning as a pinch runner for Rivera. This marks the first season without Bill Webb as director of the Mets games.
When the Mets take the field later today, they do so with probably the worst possible lineup that could’ve been assembled. For those that haven’t seen it yet, it’s:
- Jose Reyes 3B
- Asdrubal Cabrera SS
- Yoenis Cespedes LF
- Curtis Granderson CF
- Neil Walker 2B
- Jay Bruce RF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Rene Rivera C
- Noah Syndergaard P
There are many things to focus on here, but it would probably be belaboring the point. Reyes has a .321 OBP over the last three years. Michael Conforto should be the everyday right fielder. Basically, you can pick a part of this lineup and have room to really disagree with it.
Instead of focusing on those issues, it is probably more important to focus on the decision to bat Bruce over Duda because it is a microcosm of everything that is wrong with this lineup.
Due to a myriad of factors in the lineup, Terry Collins had little choice but to bat his two left-handed sluggers back-t0-back in the lineup. Normally, you would like to split them up for many reasons, but the one most often cited is you don’t want to give the opposition the opportunity to bring their LOOGY into the game to pitch to consecutive lefties. Effectively speaking, putting consecutive lefties in the lineup makes the opposing managers decision making that much easier.
At first glance at this lineup, it was one of the things I thought about, but then after careful consideration, I realized batting Bruce and Duda back-to-back in the lineup could be a stroke of genius. If handled properly, you are baiting the opposing manager into bringing in a LOOGY, which in turn, would permit the Mets to unleash their weapon – Wilmer Flores.
Last season, Flores wasn’t friendly to left-handed pitching hitting .340/.383/.710 against them. Basically speaking, Flores transforms to Babe Ruth when a left-handed pitcher on the mound. More than anyone not named Cespedes, this is the player on the team you want at-bat with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. By putting the lefties back-to-back in the lineup, you create a situation where you get to pick your spot to put Flores up at the optimal time. When that manager goes to the LOOGY, the Mets can then go to Flores. It’s actually quite brilliant.
Except it isn’t.
This would really only work if Duda hit in front of Bruce. Remember this is a National League team, and as such, the Mets have some constraint using bench pieces. You need to hold back a bat or two to pinch hit when the pitcher’s spot comes up. If you hit Flores for Bruce, this means you are then going to have to bring another player into the game to play right field. This means in one at-bat you have burned two players.
When you extrapolate further, it makes less sense. Between the two lefties, Bruce is the better hitter against left-handed pitching. For his career, Bruce is a .226/.292/.419 hitter against left-handed pitching to Duda’s .224/.295/.364 batting line. Assuming you’re not going to have back-to-back pinch hitters, you want to keep Bruce in against the LOOGY over Duda. Keep in mind, this is really the only situation in which you should prefer Bruce over Duda as a hitter.
In 2014 and 2015, Duda was the Mets everyday first baseman, and over that time frame, he hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI with a 133 OPS+. Now, to be fair, Duda did struggle last season with the back injury hitting just .229/.302/.412 with 7 homers and 23 RBI in 47 games. However, Duda did look better this Spring, and in reality, if you think Duda is going to be that type of hitter again, he should be on the bench. With the Mets tendering Duda a contract and not trying to move Conforto to first, it appears they believe he will return to form.
From 2014 – 2016, Bruce has hit .231/.295/.440 while averaging 26 homers and 84 RBI with a 98 OPS+. Keep in mind, Bruce did this while hitting at the band box that is the Great American Ballpark instead of Citi Field. Looking at that, wouldn’t it be fair to say Duda is the better hitter than Bruce, and therefore, should bat higher in the lineup?
And that is where we come to the problem with the lineup. At the core, the lineup shows Collins believes Bruce is a better hitter than Duda, which is just wrong. It is this lack of critical thinking that is reflected in each and every part of this Mets lineup from the lead off hitter straight down to the seventh spot in the lineup. It’s a problem.
Hopefully, Bruce goes out there and has an incredible season besting what Duda’s averages has been. Hopefully, Bruce makes Collins look like a genius. Hopefully, the only changes needed for this lineup is Travis d’Arnaud catching the rest of the staff, and David Wright triumphantly returning to the lineup.
There’s a lot to hope for there, but it is Opening Day where we all get to hope that everything will break right, and the Mets will win the World Series. With the Mets pitching, there is a legitimate reason to hope.
With the Mets returning almost of the entire 2016 team that lost the Wild Card Game, the team is going to have to count on the players they have now improving in order for the team to advance further than the Wild Card Game. Fortunately for the Mets there are some players who appear poised to have a much better 2017 season:
After the 2015 season, d’Arnaud seemed poised to take the next step. After all, his 130 wRC+ trailed only Buster Posey among major league catchers with at last 200 AB. His pitch framing was simply outstanding. While he was never known for his arm, he was able to throw out 33% of base stealers, which was actually higher than league average. Entering his age 27 season, he seemed primed for an All Star selection or more.
Injuries once again got in the way for d’Arnaud as did his problems throwing out base stealers. He also regressed offensively hitting a paltry .247/.307/.323 in 75 games. After a season like that, the only place d’Arnaud could realistically go is up.
And that’s where he is trending this Spring Training. With his work with Kevin Long, he has abandoned the wrap in his batting stance, and we have seen him hit much better in the Spring. While his throwing is not exactly where you want it yet, but with Glenn Sherlock as his catching coach, we should see d’Arnaud improve again behind the plate.
And with d’Arnaud improving offensively and defensively, and with a little luck on the health side, we may finally see d’Arnaud play at an All Star level.
RF – Jay Bruce
In his 50 games with the Mets, Bruce hit .219/.294/.391 with eight homers and 19 RBI. While the trade for Bruce may not have been popular, and the Mets being unable to trade him this offseason being even less unpopular, let’s keep in mind Bruce has been a far better player than this in his career.
In his nine year career, Bruce is a .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged 27 homers and 82 RBI. In each season he has played 150 games, he has hit 30 homers and 97+ RBI. He has shown the ability to be patient at the plate having posted .353 and .341 OBP in his career. The overriding point here is that Bruce is capable of so much more, and fortunately, Bruce is with a team that can get it out of him.
Since Kevin Long became the Mets hitting coach, he has taken players like Daniel Murphy, Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, and Asdrubal Cabrera, and he has gotten them to hit for more power and get on base more frequently. As James Wagner of the New York Times reports, the Mets have begun that process by sharing advanced data with him and by helping him change his approach at the plate. So far, Bruce has been a willing student.
Considering Bruce is willing to listen and improve, and the Mets have the people in place who help hitters improve, there is every expectation that we should see a much better version of Jay Bruce than we saw last year.
SP Jacob deGrom
The 2016 season was a tough one for deGrom. He started the year with an injured oblique and a sick infant. He didn’t have his velocity even when he was presumably healthy, and then he had to have season ending to repair the ulnar nerve in his pitching elbow.
Whereas deGrom was throwing around 94 MPH in 2016, this Spring, he is back to the 96+ MPH he was in 2015. That was a pitcher who was 14-8 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, and a 9.7 K/9. That was a pitcher who finished seventh in Cy Young voting. That was a pitcher who out-dueled Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Kyle Hendricks in the postseason. That pitcher was an ace. By all accounts, that pitcher is back.
SP Steven Matz
There were glimpses of the ace Matz could be during last season. In an eight start stretch from April 17th to May 31st, Matz was 7-0 with a 1.17 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, and an 8.7 K/9. From that point forward, Matz had difficulty pitching through what was described as a massive bone spur in his pitching elbow. Matz lost a tick on his fastball, and he had to reduce the amount of sliders he threw. He struggled, and he eventually had to have season ending surgery.
Looking at him this Spring, Matz is back to the form he was when he was at his best last year. Maybe, just maybe, he might be even better. After working with former Met Scott Rice this offseason, Matz has a slightly new leg kick which functions to keep both base runners and batters off balance. With the new delivery, Matz could possibly be better than what we saw from him over the past two seasons. With the bone spurs gone, and with him presumably no longer sleeping on couches, his injury problems are hopefully in the rear view mirror. Then again, with this latest bout with the elbow, who knows with him?
Overall, with him reportedly feeling good after throwing off flat ground, and I’m choosing to believe the MRI is precautionary. I’m going to choose to believe Matz will be good to go in 2017, and he will have a breakout 2017 season.
LF Yoenis Cespedes
Last season, Cespedes hit .280/.354/.530 with 31 homers and 86 RBI. Using OPS+ as a barometer, it was the third best season of his career. It is all the more amazing he had that type of a season when you consider Cespedes played out of position most of the year, and he dealt with a right quad injury most of the year.
In 2017, Cespedes should be playing in his natural left field position where he won the 2015 American League Gold Glove despite playing only 102 games there. He should also be more comfortable with a large guaranteed contract with a Mets team in which he loves. We have seen the effects of that with Cespedes showing up to camp in terrific shape, and he has been all about business this Spring. No car show. No waffles. Just baseball.
And by the way, he is absolutely killing this Spring. He’s sending moon shots all over the place including one over the batter’s eye at First Data Field. By the look he has in his eye this Spring, Cespedes looks like he may put together a better run than he did when he first joined the Mets in 2015. Seeing how he’s playing now, it is tough to rule that out.
Certainly, with improved seasons from the aforementioned five players, the Mets should have enough to overtake the Nationals once again and win the National League East. When you take into account bigger contributions from players like Lucas Duda and Juan Lagares or with young players like Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, or Gavin Cecchini being ready to contribute the minute the Mets call them up to the majors, this team should do better than the 87-75 record from last year. They should do better than the Wild Card. Maybe, just maybe, they can do better than the 2015 team.
Last year, we saw Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and T.J. Rivera become significant contributors to a Mets team who claimed one of the two National League Wild Cards. Their contribution was as pleasant as it was surprising. In fact, no one truly could have predicated the slate of injuries that befell the Mets last year. This year? Well, that’s a different story all together.
With David Wright already questionable for Opening Day, and the Mets prospects performing better in Spring Training than many originally anticipated, many fans question not if, but when will we see these prospects contributing for the Mets. With that in mind, here are five prospects, who have yet to appear in a major league game, we may very well see at Citi Field in 2017.
#1 David Roseboom
Once Akeel Morris was traded to the Braves for Kelly Johnson, Roseboom became the closer for the Binghamton Mets last season. Roseboom blossomed in the role and made it an eight inning game for the B-Mets. He saved 14 out of 15 games while posting a 1.87 ERA in 52 games on the year. From July 2 to the last regular season game on September 5, Roseboom held opponents to a .130/.193/.383 slash line, and a 0.92 ERA. This work has caught the Mets attention, and he was a non-roster invitee giving the Mets coaching staff an opportunity to get an up close look at him.
At a minimum, he could very well be the second left-handed reliever the Mets covet in the bullpen. With the struggles we have seen from Josh Edgin this Spring, that could be sooner rather than later.
#2 Paul Sewald
What is interesting about Sewald is his terrific results have not gotten him the attention he deserves. Seemingly every pitcher struggles in Las Vegas, and yet in the second half, Sewald converted 10 save opportunities while posting a 1.85 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. While naysayers will point to his high 80s to low 90s fastball, Sewald has clearly shown the ability to get batters out even in the most difficult of pitching environments. As teams go through multiple relievers year-t0-year, it may only be a matter of time before Sewald finally gets his well earned chance to pitch in the majors.
#3 Dominic Smith
This Spring, we have already seen Wright become questionable for Opening Day, and Lucas Duda need shots in his hip and have back spasms. For a Mets infield that already had injury questions to start the season, things are already progressing quite poorly. The Mets have talked about experimenting with Jay Bruce at first. Wilmer Flores has already shown he can be part of an effective platoon there as well. Neither player is the long term answer. That’s Smith.
Smith is a terrific fielding first baseman who reported to his first major league camp in the best shape of his professional career. So far, the only concern about him is if he will hit for power. He quieted some of those concerns in the final 58 games of the season. During that 58 game stretch, Smith hit .355/.426/.537 with 16 doubles, one triple, seven homers and 42 RBI. Extrapolating that over the course of a 162 game season, that would translate to 45 doubles and 20 home runs. That type of production can definitely play at first base especially when Smith has the promise to do even more.
#4 Amed Rosario
Across baseball and the Mets organization, Rosario has been dubbed a superstar in the making. The only question is when his star will begin shining at Citi Field. Arguably, he is further away from Citi Field than Smith as Smith played a full season in Binghamton last year. Moreover, you probably want to give both players until the All Star Break before you even begin to consider calling them up to the majors. And yet, as Michael Conforto proved in 2015, if you are a truly special talent, you can come to the majors and contribute for a World Series caliber team in the thick of a pennant race.
In Rosario, the Mets have a game changer in the field and at the plate. Should any infielder go down, room can be made for Rosario. Certainly, Asdrubal Cabrera has shown in his career he can play second and third. Also, do not discount the Mets trying to play Rosario at third this season so he can become more versatile, and quite possibly open a spot for him on the major league roster this year.
#5 Chris Flexen
Arguably, this spot could go to P.J. Conlon, but Flexen is on the 40 man roster. Also, Flexen pitched a full season for St. Lucie last year, whereas Conlon only pitched half a season there. Another issue is Flexen’s stuff plays better in the bullpen as Flexen has a mid-90s fastball and a plus curve ball. If the Mets were to be willing to move Flexen to the bullpen, he can rocket through the Mets system.
In addition to Conlon, another name to consider is Corey Taylor. He’s got terrific stuff, and the minor league closer is already drawing Jeurys Familia comparisons. Overall, the Mets farm system has plenty of players who should be able to contribute at the major league level at some point next year. It should give you some hope the Mets should be good in 2017 even if there is a rash of injuries. It should give you more hope that the Mets should be good in years to come.
Editor’s Note: I consulted Michael Mayer while making my list, and he pointed out to me he wrote a similar column for Mets Merized Online. His list is slightly different as he includes Champ Stuart. As Michael is one of the most knowledgeable people on the Mets farm system, please give his article a read as well.
Looking over the Mets infield, there are two things that squarely stand-out. The first is that this is an aging group of players coming off significant injuries. The second is this infield is not a particularly good defensive infield.
John Dewan of Acta Sports, and Fielding Bible fame, projected the Mets to have the worst defense up the middle in 2017. The projection calls for Neil Walker to be a -1 DRS next season, which is what he has averaged over the past three seasons. Asdrubal Cabrera is projected to post a -9 DRS, which is worse than the -7 DRS he has averaged over the past two seasons. While you would certainly want both Walker’s and Cabrera’s bats in the game, certainly, the Mets would benefit by having a better glove in the game when there is a lead late in the game.
That is exactly what the Mets have done with Juan Lagares. After the team acquired Yoenis Cespedes at the 2015 trade deadline, Lagares has served as a defensive replacement late in games. The Mets doing this has served two important purposes. First, it has helped the Mets preserve leads by putting their best defense on the field. Second, it helps save some innings, and by extent wear and tear, on players like Cespedes and Curtis Granderson. It is a large reason why the Mets will be returning Lagares to the same role in 2017.
It is something the Mets should consider for their infield. The issue is the Mets do not have the bench to do it.
Jose Reyes has averaged a -9 DRS at shortstop over the past three years, which would indicate he’s a downgrade from Cabrera. Wilmer Flores had a -10 DRS as the starting shortstop in 2015, and he has a -6 DRS as a second baseman in 576.0 major league innings. The other options being considered for the bench, T.J. Rivera and Ty Kelly, are hardly terrific defenders in their own right. Certainly, you are not taking the steady handed Walker and Cabrera off the field for them.
No, the only good defensive player who is a realistic option to make the Opening Day roster is Matt Reynolds.
Reynolds is not a gold glover in the middle infield. However, he does have the same steady hands Walker and Cabrera have while having better range at the position. He certainly has the arm to play second, short, and third. That also makes him an option to take some innings away from David Wright at third. Overall, Reynolds is most likely the best defensive infielder the Mets not named Amed Rosario. The fact that he is also capable of serving as the team’s fifth outfielder makes him an all the more enticing roster option.
What is going to hurt his chances of making the team is his bat. He hit .225/.266/.416 in 47 games with the Mets last year. He has played 254 games in the hitter’s haven that is the Pacific Coast League, Reynolds has only hit .284/.342/.411. Overall, he’s not a great hitter. It’s quite possible that even with him putting in extra time with Kevin Long he will never develop into a good hitter.
But the Mets don’t need hitters. They have plenty of them on this team. What they need are good defenders. With Lagares, they have that in the outfield. With Reynolds, they would have that in the infield as well.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
It would take a minor miracle if the Mets Opening Day lineup lasts the full season. It is very likely that one of Lucas Duda (back), Neil Walker (back), David Wright (body), or Asdrubal Cabrera (knee) doesn’t have a stint on the disabled list. With that in mind, the Mets infield depth is going to be more important than ever. Fortunately, they seem to have more choices than they have ever had in the past:
2016 Stats: 60 G, 279 PA, 255 AB, 45 R, 68 H, 13 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB, 2 CS, .267/.326/.443
In many ways, it was the Reyes of old last year with the electricity on the basepaths which created a buzz in both the dugout and the stands. There are two areas of caution with Reyes. He had a poor .326 OBP which is not an outlier as Reyes’ OBP over the past three seasons is .321. The other issue is he struggled against right-handed pitchers hitting .239/.293/.371 off of them last year. With that said, Reyes does seem rejuvenated being in a Mets uniform, and he can now completely focus on baseball giving hope for much better results.
2016 Stats: 103 G, 335 PA, 307 AB, 38 R, 82 H, 14 2B, 16 HR, 49 RBI, SB, CS, .267/.319/.469
Simply put, Flores mashes left-handed pitching having hit .340/.383/.710 with 11 of his 16 home runs off of them. While fans have soured on him as a shortstop, he still can capably handle all four infield positions. Based on the numbers, when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound, the Mets needs to find a way to get him in the lineup. When there’s a right-handed pitcher, the Mets would be better off looking in another direction.
2016 Stats: 33 G, 113 PA, 105 AB, 10 R, 35 H, 4 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 16 RBI, .333/.345/.476
In September, we saw that Rivera can not only hold down a position due to injuries. More importantly, we know he can rise to the occasion. While he may not walk enough to justify putting him in the everyday lineup, his ability to hit can justify his presence on a major league roster. Those justifications are only enhanced when you consider he is also capable of playing all four infield positions.
2016 Stats: 47 G, 96 PA, 89 AB, 11 R, 20 H, 8 2B, 3 HR, CS, .225/.266/.416
Whereas the aforementioned players primarily rely on their bats, Reynolds is a terrific defensive player. In one game last year, he surprised us all not by playing a representative left field, despite never playing there previously, but also by hitting a monster home run to give the Mets a lead.
2016 Stats: 4 G, 7 PA, 6 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 2 2B, 2 RBI, .333/.429/.667
Cecchini is a promising hitter who should be able to hit for more power as he ages. Despite having all the tools, he has struggled as a shortstop. Those struggles along with the rise of Rosario, Cecchini should find himself playing second base next year. With the increased versatility, he should be able to help the Mets at either second or short if the need arises.
2016 MiLB Stats: 120 G, 527 PA, 479 AB, 65 R, 155 H, 24 2B, 13 3B, 5 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB, 8 CS, .324/.374/.459
With Rosario it is just a matter of time before the shortstop of the future becomes the Mets everyday shortstop. With a little more seasoning, he may become a superstar. There’s no limit to his talent. He just needs a little more seasoning in Las Vegas. Depending on when or if someone goes down, the Mets may want to call up their best prospect to the majors. Once he gets called up, the Mets are going to have a hard time justifying sending him back down.
As seen above, the Mets are much deeper in the infield than they have been in year’s past when players like Eric Campbell were making the Opening Day roster. In the case of Cecchini and Rosario, one injury may just open the door for them to claim the position not just for 2017 but for years to come.
While the Mets have a terrific Opening Day infield on paper, the infield that may materialize later on into the season may be even better.