Addison Reed. Jeurys Familia

The Road to the Pennant Begins at Citi Field

For the first time in their history, the Mets can defend their pennant in the postseason. Better yet, the Mets get to defend their National League crown on their own turf.

The Mets are sending their ace Noah Syndergaard to the mound. Bear in mind, Syndergaard is not the ace by default. From the minute Syndergaard started throwing 95 MPH sliders to accompany his 100 MPH fastball, he was fast on his way to becoming the staff ace regardless of the injuries to Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. In the 2016 season, Syndergaard led the major leauges in FIP while also allowing the fewest home runs per nine innings. He also finished .001 behind Max Scherzer for the best K/BB ratio in the National League. All told, even with the every other year narrative and Madison Bumgarner‘s postseason history, the Mets actually have the starting pitching advantage.

That advantage gets amplified when you consider the Giants just do not hit Syndergaard. As a team, the Giants are batting .170/.241/.226 with just one home run against Syndergaard. The Giants projected starting lineup is just 8-44 against Syndergaard with a home run and nine strikeouts. So long as Syndergard goes out there and pitches against the Giants batters like he has done in his short career, he is going to give the Mets every chance to beat Bumgarner and the Giants.

The Mets have a chance to beat Bumgarner too. The first three batters in the Mets lineup, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, have each hit Bumgarner well. Towards the bottom of the lineup, both Riveras, T.J. Rivera and Rene Rivera, have had success in the one game they have faced Bumgarner. This is a big reason why the Mets were able to score four runs off Bumgarner in just five innings. With Syndergaard on the mound, and Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to follow, the Mets are not going to need as many runs this go round against Bumgarner.

Speaking of the bullpen, there has been no better tandem to close out a game than Reed and Familia. On the opposite side of the ledger, the Giants blew the most saves in all of baseball. They came just short of the all-time single season blown saves record. The Giants still don’t know who their closer will be this postseason. If it comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Mets definitively have the better pen.

Tonight should be baseball at its best. You’re going to see two of the best pitchers in baseball, both of who have had success in the postseason, squaring off in a winner-take-all game. Given the Mets having home field, and the numbers at play, you have to like the Mets chances tonight.

Lets Go Mets!

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The Mets Have a Chance Against Madison Bumgarner

As we head to the Wild Card Game, we already know that we are going to see an epic pitching matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard.  Presumably, this game is going to be won and lost on which pitcher blinks first and allows a run.  It is going to be a daunting task for both offenses.

In Bumgarner’s career, he has made six starts against the Mets going 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.025 WHIP.  In four starts at Citi Field, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 0.828 WHIP.  Bumgarner faced the Mets twice this year with very different results.

On a May 1st game at Citi Field, Bumgarner earned the win pitching six shutout innings allowing six hits and three walks while striking out seven.  On an August 18th game at AT&T Park, in what was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel against Jacob deGrom, both pitchers struggled.  Bumgarner still got the win despite allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks with six strikeouts over just five innings.

With that in mind, looking at the recent history, the Mets do have something to build their confidence against Bumgarner as they head into Wednesday’s game.  There’s reason for confidence because the healthy Mets on the 40 man roster have actually fared well against Bumgarner:

Presumable Starting Lineup

  1. Jose Reyes 3-9
  2. Asdrubal Cabrera 3-7, 2 RBI, K
  3. Yoenis Cespedes 3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB, 3 K
  4. Curtis Granderson 0-3, BB, K
  5. Jay Bruce 3-23, HR, 4 RBI, 6 K
  6. T.J. Rivera 2-3
  7. Lucas Duda 0-1
  8. Rene Rivera 2-3, 2B, HR, 5 RBI
  9. Noah Syndergaard 0-2, K

Bench:

Have Never Faced Bumgarner (2016 against LHP):

Look, anytime you face Bumgarner in an elimination game, you should not feel comfortable.  In the 2014 Wild Card Game, Bumgarner pitched a complete game, four hit, one walk, 10 strikeout shutout.  In Game 7 of the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner came out of the bullpen on two days rest to throw five shutout innings to give the Giants their third World Series title in five years.

Once again, this is an even numbered year, and the Giants are once again sending Bumgarner out to the mound to begin the run to another World Series.  Standing in his way is 60’6″ postseason Syndergaard and a collection of Mets bats that have hit him well.  The Mets have a good chance to win this game.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.

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Where There’s Smoker, Grandy’s on Fire

Given the pitching matchup and the location of today’s game, tonight’s game wasn’t a guarantee. That went double when you consider the game was at the Mets own House of Horrors in Turner Field that is thankfully closing at the end of the season. Before it closes, the Mets have some demons to exercise. They did just that tonight despite a slow start. 

The Mets had a chance to score off Julio Teheran in the first, but they couldn’t cash in. A Curtis Granderson walk loaded the bases with one out. However, the Mets wouldn’t score as Wilmer Flores hit into the inning ending 6-4-3 double play. It was a giant missed opportunity. 

Instead if having a lead, the Mets would soon trail in the game. Matt Kemp lead off the second with a solo home run off Robert Gsellman. 

The Braves would then expand on their 1-0 lead with a big fifth. Gsellman had almost navigated through a Dansby Swanson leadoff single.  He stood on third with two outs when Adonis Garcia singled him home. The Braves then proceeded to load the bases. Nick Markakis hit a two run single to right to give the Braves a 4-0 lead. Once again the tales of Jay Bruce‘s arm were greatly exaggerated. 

In reality, the main difference between this Gsellman start and his others was the Braves took advantage of their opportunities. In Gsellman’s short career, he has consistently played with fire. Tonight, he got burned. 

The Mets would begin the comeback in the sixth. Yoenis Cespedes hit a comebacker off Tehran which seemingly broke the spell. The insanely hot Granderson followed the Cespedes single with a two run homer to make it 4-2. It was the Mets first runs off Teheran in 29 innings. 

The Braves wouldn’t expand on this lead due to a truly great Josh Smoker appearance. 

Smoker inherited a mess in the sixth. Jose Reyes made a nice play to ball Swanson hit down the third base line off Jim Henderson. However, Reyes’ arm wasn’t strong enough to get the speedy Swanson. Worse yet, James Loney‘s arm wasn’t strong enough to get Jace Peterson who went from first to third on the play. Ultimately, it didn’t matter as Smoker was terrific. 

Smoker first struck out A.J. Pierzynski. Then he got Ender Inciarte to hit into the inning ending 3-6-3 double play.  The appearance might’ve been Smoker’s best in his short career. It did give the Mets a chance to win. 

While it wasn’t as impressive as Smoker’s effort, Hansel Robles got out of a jam in the seventh to keep the Braves from tacking on to their 4-2 lead. At the time, it seemed like nothing more than a nice recovery for Robles. As it turns out, Robles would get the win. 

The Mets loaded the bases with no outs in the eighth off Mauricio Cabrera. The bases shouldn’t have been loaded as Reyes hit what could’ve been a double play ball that Swanson booted. It would’ve been a tough turn with Reyes’ speed, but at a minimum, the lead runner should’ve been out. 

In any event, Cespedes came up with the bases loaded, and he put together a terrific at bat hitting a deep sacrifice fly to right scoring Alejandro De Aza. The ball was deep enough to permit Reyes to go to third. Granderson followed with a bloop that seemingly stayed up forever, and still Kemp could not get to it. Just like that tie game. 

The Mets took the lead on a Kelly Johnson pinch hit RBI double.  

Bruce was then intentionally walked by Cabrera before he departed in favor of Jose Ramirez. Ramirez then plunked the pinch hitting Michael Conforto to make it a 6-4 game. In the inning the Mets batted around with only two hits, but it was enough to score four runs. 

This set up the formula the Mets wanted. No, not Eric Campbell at first base due to all the lineup machinations, even if he did make two great plays at first in the eighth. The Mets were able to fog with Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to close out the 6-4 win. 

The Mets had this chance because Granderson is playing like the Granderson of old. With him contributing like this each and every night, the Mets are certainly capable of repeating performances like tonight. 

Game Notes: Gavin Cecchini was the sole non-catcher bench player who didn’t get into the game. 

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