With reports the New York Mets are not one of the finalists for Tomoyuki Sugano, there has been some consternation about fans for missing out on a big name in free agency which could have fulfilled a real need.
Yes, Sugano could’ve helped, and chances are he’d be very good. Still, there’s a number of reasons why the Mets failing to sign Sugano isn’t that big of a deal. In no particular order, here they are:
- Trevor Bauer
- Masahiro Tanaka
- Jake Odorizzi
- Corey Kluber
- Jose Quintana
- Taijuan Walker
- Alex Wood
- James Paxton
- Martin Perez
- Felix Hernandez
All of these pitchers and more are still available in free agency. There are also other pitchers possibly available via trade like Joe Musgrove.
There are still plenty of options remaining, and that doesn’t even include Noah Syndergaard who is likely to return at some point this season.
The moral of the story here is Mets fans need to calm down. The vast majority of the best free agents are still available, and it does not seem like they’re flying off the board just yet.
We just need to let this glacially slow offseason play out and trust this front office. Come Spring Training, this will very likely be a team which can contend for the division. At a minimum, this team is already vastly improved.
One issue we constantly talk about is how to prevent tanking in sports. In some ways, the 2020-2021 season has put a renewed emphasis on the discussion.
The New York Jets put an undrafted corner on an island. The Philadelphia Eagles threw a game against the Washington Football team. Both teams said they were trying to win, but when push came to shove, the coaching staff purposefully lost the games (or at least made decisions which they knew would help their teams lose).
The biggest reason why that happened is the NFL incentivizes losing. The same happens in all four sports leagues. The more you lose, the better your draft prospects. That holds true for the NHL and NBA with the draft lottery. While losing the most games doesn’t guarantee you the top pick in the draft, it does give you a better percent chance of getting that top pick.
The only way to disincentivize losing is to remove the benefit of losing. Professional sports organizations need to put a system in place which rewards teams actively trying to win. The best possible way to do that is a reverse draft order process.
The first overall pick in the draft should not go to the worst teams. Instead, the team who just misses out on the postseason should get the top pick. If you’re the nine seed in the NBA, congratulations, you are now rewarded by getting the top pick in the draft. The same goes for the seventh seed in the NFL, and the third place team in the MLB Wild Card race.
Making this one change would push teams to try to win instead of trying to lose. Basically, your points at the end of the season are going to be in the playoffs with the extra playoff revenue or to get the top player in the draft. This presents no downside to trying to win, and there is no incentive anywhere for a team to try to tank for the top pick.
Another added benefit is top picks will suddenly go to great situations. We may no longer talk about Sam Darnold being a bust with a terrible franchise. We may not look at Patrick Stefan as a solid second line center instead of one of the biggest busts in NHL history. Maybe Adam Morrison finds a way to be an effective third option or scorer off the bench instead of being a complete bust.
That’s partially what is at stake here. Professional sport leagues are looking to the next generation of player, their future superstars, and they are putting them in terrible situations. Instead of putting players where they can best succeed and grow thereby helping the player and the future of the league, they are asking them to be saviors to terrible franchises.
Taking a look at LeBron James, could you imagine if instead of going to the Cleveland Cavaliers, he went to the Houston Rockets. He could have joined a team with Yao Ming and Steve Francis coached by Rudy Tomjanovich. LeBron could have well surpassed Jordan in rings by now, and to a certain extent, the NBA could have avoided their current problem of players jumping together to form super-teams.
Now, the counter-argument is that such a system would make turning teams around all the more difficult. That is true, but so what?
Chances are if you are a bad team, it is partially because of how you operate your team. Look at the New York Knicks. Obviously, if they were able to grab a Steph Curry or LeBron James, things could have been very different. That said, this organization is in the predicament they’re in because they keep making flat out dumb and crazy decisions. Getting a LeBron will never change that.
Another counter to that argument is the proposed system could help the worst of the worst. If you have more teams actively trying to win, there is a shallower market of teams selling at the trade deadline. If you’re the only team with anything to offer because you’re one of the few teams willing to move players, you can extract a higher return than you are now. Those draft picks and younger players could then be the cornerstone of the team turning it around. If a team does this successfully, they will have a good core to allow them to grab the first pick in the draft.
Mostly, we have to acknowledge any system has its flaws. Given what we have seen in the four big professional sports over the last decade or so, we need to change a system which incentives trying to lose. Instead, we need to give teams the explicit goal of trying to win games. If you do that, you’re not going to see teams actively try to lose games both in game preparation, and as we saw with the Eagles, by actively throwing the game.
It is time to start putting the best young players onto the most promising teams and rewarding those teams who are trying to do things the right way. We need to stop incentivizing losing. We need to give the top draft picks to teams who actively try to win because they have earned it.
The Washington Football Team needed to beat the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East. Admittedly, the Eagles had nothing to play for except pride and professionalism.
The Eagles players upheld their end of the bargain playing hard and keeping the game within a field goal entering the fourth quarter.
That’s when Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson brought in Nate Sudfeld, a player Cris Collinsworth kept saying the Eagles wanted to get a look at in this game. Apparently, Pederson felt compelled to play a QB in a tight game with playoff implications he had inactive 14/16 weeks.
Sudfeld is a 27 year old QB who threw exactly two passes over the past three seasons. In his five year career, he’s played in four out of a possible 80 games.
It should come as no surprise Sudfeld wasn’t just bad. No, he was completely non-competitive. You’d have more faith in Tim Tebow being up at the plate against Mariano Rivera with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.
Actually, Tebow probably would’ve had better odds.
Make no mistake, the Eagles well knew Sudfeld was going to be this bad, and they put him in intentionally. They did it for the same reason they didn’t call time outs in front of the two minute warning when Washington had third and long.
The Eagles simply had zero intention of winning this game. They wanted to lose, and when their players got too close to winning, the team did what they had to do to throw the game.
The Eagles did this so they’d move up in the draft. Due to their malfeasance, they were rewarded by moving up three spots in the draft. Instead of picking ninth, they now draft sixth.
So congratulations to them and to the NFL for incentivizing losing. They embarrassed their league, and they made a mockery of all professional sports competition. This wasn’t a tank. It was a dive.
In short, the Eagles are an embarrassment.
Mets closer Edwin Diaz looked more like the closer the Mets believed they were getting when Brodie Van Wagenen made that stupid trade. With that, faith in Diaz has been temporarily restored.
And yet, we see a pattern emerge with Diaz. He’s become an every other year player. Just look at his career FIP:
- 2016 – 2.04
- 2017 – 4.02
- 2018 – 1.61
- 2019 – 4.51
- 2020 – 2.18
If his pattern continues, we can expect another FIP over 4.00, or put another way, we could see a repeat of his disappointing 2019 season.
On that note, Diaz is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make upwards of $6.5 million in arbitration. For his top form, that’s a significant discount. When he has his off year, not so much.
Looking forward, from the Mets perspective, this is arguably the highest his trade value will ever be. He’s coming off a great year, still has two years of control remaining, and will be making reasonable money.
Further highlighting his value is how teams are claiming they’re cash strapped. This has led to a number of straight out poor decisions like the Cleveland Indians declining Brad Hand‘s option, and the St. Louis Cardinals declining Kolten Wong‘s option.
Teams who need a closer may be enticed to part with assets to acquire a Diaz over signing a reliever. On that front, the Mets have a lot of needs. Those needs include third, center, and pitching depth.
The Mets could look to fill one of those slots with Diaz as a big chip. The Mets could then look to a suppressed free agent market to replace Diaz. For instance, the Mets could sign Hand and/or Liam Hendriks.
In fact, the ability to sign Hand and Hendriks gives the Mets the latitude here to shop Diaz. The key word here is shop. By no means are the Mets obligated to move him, nor should they give him away. On that note, the Mets could still sign those two and make about as dominant a bullpen as you’ll ever see.
The overriding point is with the talent available on the free agent market, and the teams not spending, this would be the time to see what the Mets could get for Diaz. Ultimately, it’s the prudent thing to do with Diaz at his peak value, and it may be the best route to building the best possible roster.
When it comes time for Michael Conforto to make the decision about whether or not he wants to sign a contract extension, there is one interesting consideration for him – his legacy.
Right now, Conforto has his name scattered across the Mets record books, but at the moment he’s not in a position to overtake the lead in any major statistical category. Part of the reason is he only has one year remaining on his contract.
However, if he were to sign an extension, he’d have a real chance to own the Mets record books.
On that note, here is where he currently stands.
- HR Darryl Strawberry 252
- R David Wright 949
- H Wright 1,777
- RBI Wright 970
- 2B Wright 390
Here is where Conforto is and how far behind the leaders he is:
- HR 118 (134 behind)
- R 348 (601)
- H 556 (1,221)
- RBI 341 (629)
- 2B 121 (269)
Now, when you look at some of those totals, he is really far behind Wright and Strawberry. However, Conforto is in the early part of his prime. That puts him in an excellent spot to make his climb.
Over the past three seasons, Conforto has 162 game averages of 154 hits, 95 runs, 30 doubles, 32 homers, and 93 RBI.Assuming he keeps that pace, here’s how many seasons he’d need to play to become the all-time leader in each category:
- HR – 5
- R – 7
- H – 8
- RBI – 7
- 2B – 9
One thing of note is that three year period includes time from when he was coming back from a devastating shoulder injury. With his clearly rushed back, he struggled until late in the 2017 season.
If we look just at the 162 game averages of the past two seasons, we see Conforto has averaged 163 hits, 105 runs, 33 doubles, 34 homers, and 98 RBI. With that pace, he would not need as much time to grab the lead:
- HR – 4
- R – 6
- H – 8
- RBI – 7
- 2B – 8
Looking at this, if he were to receive a five year extension, he will likely be the Mets all-time home run leader, and he’ll be knocking on the door for the runs lead.
He’d still need a few seasons hitting at a high level to catch Wright in hits, doubles, and RBI. While difficult, it could be done. What matters there is Conforto’s ability to play at a high level for a sustained time period, and just as important, how long his extension (if any) would be.
If Conforto’s extension is indeed long enough, and he is blessed with good health, he’s going to make a serious dent in the record books assuming he isn’t atop all of them. If he can get a World Series ring and close that 34.6 WAR gap between him and Wright, we may very well one day talk about how Conforto is the best position player in Mets history.
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers have an interesting history. For fans of the original Mets team, many of them were originally Dodgers fans.
That includes Fred Wilpon, who built a ballpark in testament to those Dodger teams. Of course, that was resented by younger more modern Mets fans who have zero recollection of those Brooklyn teams.
For Gen X fans and younger, the history of the Mets and Dodgers is quite different.
There was the Dodgers upsetting the 1988 Mets. That was a painful series highlighted by David Cone perhaps riling up the Dodgers, Davey Johnson leaving in Dwight Gooden too long with the ensuing Mike Scioscia homer, and Orel Hershiser‘s virtuoso performance.
The 2006 Mets got some measure of a payback in the NLDS sweep. That was a total beatdown with former Dodgers Shawn Green and Jose Valentin relaying to former Dodger Paul Lo Duca who tagged out Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew at home plate.
Things between these two teams really ratcheted up in the 2015 NLDS. That all began with Chase Utley living up to his reputation as one of the dirtiest players ever with his tackling Ruben Tejada at second thereby breaking Tejada’s leg.
Utley would go on to cowardly duck the Mets in New York. Ultimately, the Mets won that series behind the brilliance of Jacob deGrom and the postseason heroics of Daniel Murphy.
The bad feelings of that series carried forward into the next season when Noah Syndergaard was ejected during a nationally televised game after throwing a pitch behind Utley. Utley would get the last laugh with Terry Collins being revered years later when the ejection video was released.
After that, things calmed down. That was due in large part to the Wilpons ineptitude taking the Mets out of contention. During that time, the Dodgers became the model franchise finally breaking through and winning the 2020 World Series.
Now, with Steve Cohen at the helm, things promise to be different.
With Cohen comes real financial heft which arguably surpasses what the Dodgers have. We’ve seen early on what that means with the Mets already signing Trevor May and James McCann as well as being in the market for George Springer and Tomoyuki Sugano.
But, it’s not just the financial strength. It’s also the scouting and analytics. The Dodgers have used that to identify players like Max Muncy and Justin Turner who have become relative stars. They’ve also developed an enviable pipeline of talent with young players like Gavin Lux and Will Smith.
The Mets have started heading in that direction by bringing back Sandy Alderson. They’ve also hired Jared Porter as GM and Zack Scott as Assistant GM.
Of course, the Mets have retained perhaps the best draft scouting with Mark Tramuta, Tommy Tanous, Drew Toussaint, et al. That group is responsible for great talent like Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, and Dominic Smith. That’s nothing to say of the talent still left in the system and traded away.
The Mets have the core, financial resources, burgeoning front office, and now the right ownership for the Mets to become a juggernaut like we haven’t seen from this franchise since the 1980s. They will very soon rival the Dodgers on and off the field.
That is going to lead to some more postseason run-ins. With that will be the heightening if tensions between these franchises which have already had their moments.
If the Mets make the right moves, we’ll see an epic postseason clash between these teams come October not just this year but in each of the ensuing seasons. The seeds are already there, and so, with more epic postseason series, we’ll see the makings of a bitter Mets/Dodgers rivalry.
The year 2020 was hard on us all, but there were some truly outstanding and unexpected uplifting moments scattered throughout the year. In no particular order here were some of the best moments for the New York Mets in 2020:
1. Steve Cohen purchases the Mets ending the Wilpons reign.
2. Dominic Smith finds his voice and that next level in his game.
3. Michael Conforto emerged as a real leader and showed he’s the star we all hoped he’d be.
4. While not winning the Cy Young, Jacob deGrom continued to prove he’s the best pitcher in the game.
5. Yoenis Cespedes gave us one last thrill with an Opening Day game winning homer.
6. Edwin Diaz returned to his dominant form.
7. Amed Rosario hit a walk-off homer at Yankee Stadium to beat the New York Yankees.
8. David Peterson and Andres Gimenez made the jump from Double-A and had strong rookie seasons.
9. Mets were once again allowed to wear the first responders caps.
10. Sandy Alderson returned restoring credibility to the franchise and was given the opportunity to win a World Series with the Mets.
11. Marcus Stroman accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Mets.
12. Players like Trevor May and James McCann were excited about the new era in Queens and wanted to be a part of it.
13. Pete Alonso proved his rookie year was no fluke putting himself on what would’ve been a 42 home run pace.
14. Although in a circuitous route, Luis Rojas got the manager job he earned and did enough to earn at least a second season at the helm.
15. Luis Guillorme was great with the glove and better than we ever anticipated he’d be at the plate.
16. Brandon Nimmo proved his neck problems were no more while remaining an on-base machine.
17. Rick Porcello got to live out his dream by pitching for the same Mets team he loved as a kid.
18. The 1986 Mets were dubbed the best team ever.
19. Alonso honored the greatest Met ever by hitting a walk-off homer the first game the Mets played after Tom Seaver passed.
20. It was only 60 games and the Mets finished in last place, but we got to see Mets baseball. For at least those 3+ hours a day, we felt normal.
If you’re reading this now, chances are you went through a lot this year. The good news is you’re reading this meaning you’ve survived the year and can have hope for a better 2021.
God willing, that 2021 will be our best year ever, and we will see a Mets World Series title.
One of the best parts of the 2020 season was watching Luis Guillorme and Andres Gimenez perform pure magic in the middle infield. It rivaled Edgardo Alfonzo and Rey Ordóñez, and at times, you could imagine it being better.
Luis Guillorme and Andrés Giménez are making it look it easy out here. pic.twitter.com/NFRyvPzin6
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 12, 2020
Rick Porcello gets a BIG double play to end the 4th ? pic.twitter.com/Yie43Yclep
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 12, 2020
Luis Guillorme can pitch and make great plays in the field. Versatility >>> pic.twitter.com/uzEQkSyYb2
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 11, 2020
If you value up the middle defense and believe it’s a key to winning, there is arguably none better than the tandem of Guillorme and Gimenez. In 2021, Gimenez seems to be a lock at short, but we don’t ever hear Guillorme’s name for consideration of the starting second base job.
In just 102.0 innings at second last year, he had a 1 OAA and a 12.5 UZR/150. In his Major League career, he’s played 176.0 innings accumulating a 2 DRS and a 2 OAA.
While this is a small sample size, Guillorme was always known for elite defense. It’s one of the reasons the Mets once protected him from the Rule 5 Draft and have kept him as a utility player.
We’ve seen through Mets and baseball history glove first players like Guillorme can play everyday and be a tremendous asset. The classic example in Mets history is Ordóñez and Juan Lagares in 2013 and 2014.
When it comes to Guillorme, he’s a more promising hitter than those two elite defenders. We saw a classic example of that when he posted a 144 wRC+ with a career best 14.7% walk rate.
Of course, his .463 BABIP is unsustainable. Still, behind that were some sustainable things like the improved walk rate. Other important factors are his opposite field approach and improved line drive rate.
Guillorme knows what he is as a hitter, and he’s maximizing his skill set. Where he winds up as a hitter is a good guess, but you can probably safely assume he’ll hit enough to justify his Gold Glove caliber defense at second.
Now, if Jeff McNeil can handle third, Guillorme needs to be strongly considered at second. In terms of the current roster, Guillorme at second and McNeil at third is probably their best roster.
Of course, free agency and trades can change that. However, up until there’s a clear obvious upgrade available, and those options may not be readily attainable for the Mets, Guillorme needs to finally get the chance at a starting position.
When it comes to Omar Vizquel‘s Hall of Fame case, it’s predicated more on opinion than anything substantive. Essentially, some people liked his defense, so they want to vote for him.
It took Vizquel 24 years to accumulate 45.6 WAR. That 45.6 number is well below the 67.5 which is the average from Hall of Famers at that position. When you realize he’s averaged less than 2.0 WAR per season, you really have to wonder where the love for him is deriving.
Sure, he won 11 Gold Gloves, but he was nowhere near the defender or player Mark Belanger was, and Belanger is still on the outside looking in for Hall of Fame voting. Also, considering Keith Hernandez is on the outside looking in, it’s not like winning 10+ Gold Gloves guarantees entry.
Then, we have the character clause issue.
In a report by Katie Strang and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Vizquel was accused of repeated acts of domestic violence by his wife Bianca during their divorce proceedings. There were also multiple police investigations.
It should be noted Vizquel denies the allegations. That said, many see that as a reason to not vote for Vizquel, which is quite understandable.
What is curious is this is seen by many as disqualifying for Vizquel but not Barry Bonds. Most likely, that’s because the accusations against Bonds is well over 25 years ago.
When Bonds was divorcing his first wife, she testified, “Barry was this big man who loved me one minute and the next minute was beating me up, and I didn’t know what to do.” (Ken Hoover, SF Gate).
In the divorce proceedings, she talked about being “habitually beaten” over the course of their six year marriage. Like with Vizquel, there were police reports. The incidents purportedly included getting “pushed to the ground and kicked while eight months pregnant.”
Like Vizquel, Bonds denied the allegations. However, as noted, unlike Vizquel, this isn’t an issue with Bonds’ candidacy.
This isn’t an isolated instance either for Bonds. During BALCO, it was discovered Bonds was verbally (but not physically) abusive and controlling of mistress Kimberely Bell. Voicemails included threats of mutilation and beheadings.
Overall, Bonds has more allegations and testimony against him than Vizquel. There are also voicemails. However, it’s not getting the same attention or publicity.
If you believe the accusations disqualify Vizquel, it should also disqualify Bonds. While Bonds’ 762 homers may have people overlook his PED usage, it shouldn’t also have voters look past his violence towards women. It’s the same with Vizquel and his 11 Gold Gloves.
Ultimately, if you don’t believe Vizquel should be inducted into the Hall of Fame due to the domestic violence allegations, you should also believe it serves as a barrier to Bonds’ induction.
With Ha-Seong Kim signing with the San Diego Padres, the New York Mets ability to obtain a third baseman grew exponentially more difficult. That’s not to say there aren’t options.
Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant remain on the trade bloc. Of course, pulling the trigger on a deal for either player is extraordinarily difficult due to the damage Brodie Van Wagenen inflicted on the Mets farm system.
Looking at the remaining free agent third base market, Justin Turner is the only everyday third baseman available. There are many obstacles with him including his age and desire to stay with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This leaves the Mets going all-in on the aforementioned trade options or getting creative.
The creative options involve the Mets addressing second base. That could be signing DJ LeMahieu, or better yet, Kolten Wong. Luis Guillorme could be given the starting second base job he’s more than earned, or the team could go with Andres Gimenez there with Amed Rosario back at short.
These and other options are on the table so long as the Mets believe they can entrust the third base job to Jeff McNeil.
Now, last year, the Mets gave up on McNeil at third rather quickly. There were many reasons why including J.D. Davis‘ ineptitude in left. Of course, Davis was equally inept at third (again) causing this issue.
The other reason why the Mets moved McNeil from third was McNeil struggled there. In 75.0 innings, he had a -2 OAA and a 0 DRS. Part of the issue was he struggled with his throws.
This should give everyone pause, but it should be remembered 75.0 innings is the epitome of a small sample size. Another issue is the bizarre nature of the 2020 season. Taking all that into account, we shouldn’t overreact to McNeil’s third base defense.
Entering last season, McNeil had a career 3 OAA and 5 DRS at third. Of note, that was still a small sample size with his having played 173.1 innings over the span of two years.
However, while he’s doesn’t have extensive third base experience in the majors, he played over a thousand innings at third in the minors. This leaves the impression the Mets believe he can handle the position.
Well, maybe. In Sandy Alderson’s first Mets stint, he was reluctant to call-up McNeil saying he wasn’t a third baseman. When Robinson Cano was suspended, Alderson said third was “up in the air.” All told, in typical Alderson fashion, we’re still not quite sure what he thinks.
Whatever the case, McNeil is easily the best in-house option. As the options for third dry up and look all the more unattainable, he increasingly becomes the only option there leaving the Mets to replace Cano at second with someone else.
At least with second, there are plenty of very good options remaining. Unfortunately, McNeil is probably not one of those options as the Mets could very well need him at third.