Keith Hernandez Hall of Fame Case

With Mike Piazza hinting more numbers are going to be retired, there were renewed calls for Keith Hernandez‘s 17 to be retired. Previously, the Mets had only retired the numbers of players who wore a Mets cap on their Hall of Fame plaque meaning the Mets first captain did not have his number retired.

One of the biggest issues with that is Hernandez should have been inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by now.

To put things in perspective, according to Baseball Reference, the average Hall of Fame first baseman has a 66.9 WAR, 42.7 WAR7, and a 54.8 JAWS. For his part, Hernandez is just a hair behind those marks with a 60.3/41.3/50.8. However, that is part of the story.

Currently, there are 24 first basemen in the Hall of Fame. Of those 24, only 10 of those players were above the 66.9 WAR mark. There were 11 above the WAR7 mark, and there were nine above the JAWS mark. The main reason for this is because Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson, and Jimmie Foxx skewed those numbers upwards. Notably, Gehrig’s and Anson’s careers were over before World War II, and Foxx has already played 16 years out of a 20 year career before the war began.

When you look at it, Hernandez has a higher WAR mark than eight of the first baseman inducted in the Hall of Fame, and he is 0.1 WAR behind Harmon Killebrew. Hernandez has a higher WAR7 mark than nine of the first baseman in the Hall of Fame including his being 1.2 ahead of Eddie Murray. His JAWS is better than 10 of the first baseman in the Hall of Fame including his being 0.4 behind Hank Greenberg.

When you look at the numbers of first baseman inducted into the Hall of Fame whose careers occurred post World War II and post Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier, Hernandez is right in the mix of that group. In many ways, the two things that hurt Hernandez was he did it a different way than most of those first baseman.

Hernandez was not a slugger at the position in a traditional sense. Rather, he was more of a gap hitter who hit for average. Still, he was a good hitter with a 131 wRC+. That mark is good enough to tie him with Orlando Cepeda and put him ahead of Murray and Jim Bottomley.

Looking at traditional numbers, Hernandez had 426 doubles putting him ahead of players like George Sisler and Willie McCovey. His OBP is higher than Sisler and McCovey as well as Killebrew. The only ding against Hernandez is the power numbers you see with homers, RBI, and SLG where he would trail most Hall of Fame first baseman.

That said, all of those first baseman are a clear step behind Hernandez defensively. In fact, Hernandez was the best defensive first baseman to ever play the game.

This isn’t just the eye test, although when you look at plays like that, it helps. Hernandez is the all-time leader in Total Zone with a 121 mark. That puts him significantly ahead of Roger Connor, who has the second best mark at first base.

Keep in mind, when looking at defensive stats, Total Zone is the best one to look at when analyzing players across generations. On that note, here is the TZ leaders for each position across baseball history:

With the exception of Bonds, who is not in the Hall of Fame purely due to steroids, the best defensive player at each position is in the Hall of Fame. Well, that’s everyone except Hernandez.

It’s not just the stats. There is also Gold Gloves. Again, we see Hernandez and Bonds as the only players to have the most Gold Gloves at their position not be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame:

Really, when we look at baseball history, we have seen a number of players inducted into the Hall of Fame due to their ability to play defense at a virtuoso level. Smith is the classic example. It was the argument for inducting Bill Mazeroski. Yet, for some reason, that argument has not been advanced to push Keith Hernandez into the Hall of Fame.

Remember, Hernandez wasn’t just a glove at first base. As noted above, he contributed offensively. He won the 1979 batting title. He led the league in runs twice. In his career, he also led the league at one point in doubles, walks, intentional walks, and OBP. In his career, he won two Silver Sluggers. Hernandez was also an 11 time Gold Glover, five time All-Star, and the 1979 NL MVP. Hernandez also won two World Series titles in his career.

Another important point was Hernandez was seen as a leader in his playing days, and he was the first captain in Mets history. When you look at Hernandez, he had a Hall of Fame caliber career in every single sense of the word. As you see with his broadcasts on SNY, this was a player who loved baseball and understood it better than just about everyone.

All told, Hernandez is one of the best defensive players in baseball history, and he is one of the best first basemen to ever step foot on the field. He did it different than most others at this position, but all told, he did it better than almost everyone. Next time he is eligible for the Hall of Fame, he should be inducted.

 

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Congratulations Matt Harvey

Who knew after Game 5 of the 2015 World Series everything would change for Matt Harvey? On that night, he went from the best pitcher on the planet to something completely different.

Since leaving the mound that day, he’s faced obstacle after obstacle. These were enough to break anyone or have them opt to retire:

  • Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and surgery
  • Designated for assignment by the Mets
  • Released by the Angels
  • Not receiving a call-up to the majors by the Athletics
  • Pitching at alternate site for Royals during a pandemic
  • Multiple demotions to the bullpen

Despite all of that, Harvey continued to work, or better yet, fight. He fought to get back on that mound, and he looked to every possible angle to help him.

The end result of that is making the Baltimore Orioles Opening Day rotation as their fifth starter. With this being a rebuilding team, he’s getting an opportunity to rebuild himself.

Given all he’s been through and how hard he’s worked, he deserves the respect of everyone. He will have fans in Baltimore and Flushing pulling for him. With any luck, Harvey will succeed, and maybe, just maybe, he can once again find himself back with the Mets dominating in October.

Seeing all he’s done, no one should rule that out entirely. Before that, the sincerest of congratulations and respect are due to Harvey.

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Jordan Yamamoto Should’ve Made Mets Opening Day Roster

With Opening Day about a week away, the New York Mets are whittling down their roster and getting closer to defining roles. With that, we’re going to see players win and lose Spring Training competitions.

In somewhat of a surprise move, Jordan Yamamoto will not be on the Opening Day roster either as the fifth starter or the bullpen. It’s especially surprising given multiple reports Yamamoto was in line to make the roster.

In terms of Spring Training performance, Yamamoto certainly earned the job. In his three appearances, he allowed just one earned over 8.1 innings. Notably, for a pitcher with control issues in his brief Major League career, he only walked one while striking out five.

All told, Yamamoto showed the Mets exactly what they wanted to see. Basically, he showed himself to be a much better pitcher.

For a pitcher who dipped into the 80s with his fastball last year, he’s been able to maintain a higher velocity. In fact, Luis Rojas remarked Yamamoto had good carry on his fastball.

That extra tick on his fastball is important because, as shown on Baseball Savant, Yamamoto has terrific spin and movement on all of his pitches. It makes him deceptive and an uncomfortable at-bat.

When he has that velocity his ceiling is that much higher. When he’s locating, he’s difficult to hit. In 2019, that led to some terrific starts. Between that and James McCann‘s work behind the plate, the Mets had a potential breakout candidate in their organization.

Instead, the Mets opted to put themselves in a position to burn Yamamoto’s last MLB option this year. That’s a strange decision to make at the outset of a season.

Sure, if Yamamoto struggled, you use the option. However, why use it up if you don’t need to do it? Moreover, why do it when Yamamoto looks to be one of the 13 best pitchers in Spring Training?

It’s a complicated answer.

In terms of the rotation, the Mets are sticking with the homegrown guy in David Peterson even if there are some red flags right now. They also seem to be leaning on Joey Lucchesi‘s experience as a starter.

Theoretically, Yamamoto could’ve been a long man in the bullpen, or he could’ve been an opener. In fact, he would’ve paired quite well with Peterson or Lucchesi. However, the Mets are going in another direction.

Instead of looking to keep the better and more promising pitcher, they’re looking to find a way to keep veteran’s who can opt to become free agents. Specifically, they’re looking to keep Tommy Hunter and Mike Montgomery.

Hunter could be a difference maker in the bullpen, but we haven’t seen it this Spring. Montgomery is the inverse with his having a great Spring, but he’s had a 4.03 ERA and 4.41 FIP since 2017. Also, right-handed batters have annihilated him over the past two years.

This also presumes they want to keep Jacob Barnes. The Barnes decision is an odd one with his having a poor Spring and his having a 6.75 ERA, 68 ERA+, and 4.71 FIP over the past few years.

There are a lot of moving pieces here, and it seems Yamamoto is very likely getting victimized by his having options available. That is being used against him as the Mets are looking to keep other players they’ll lose if they don’t put them on the Opening Day roster.

That’s a real shame because Yamamoto earned a spot. He’s got upside, and he could’ve provided real value in the rotation or bullpen. He should be there proving that on Opening Day. That said, with the amount of pitchers an MLB team uses over the course of a season, it’s very likely we see Yamamoto at some point in the majors in 2021.

When that happens, we can only hope he succeeds and proves the Mets made a mistake by not putting him on the Opening Day roster.

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Zac Gallen Didn’t Injure Himself Because There’s No Universal DH

Zac Gallen suffered a hairline stress fracture, and he is going to miss Opening Day. According to reports, Gallen first had discomfort when getting jammed during batting practice. That discomfort did not prevent him from making his next start when he felt discomfort only when he threw his curveball. Naturally, this led many to use that as a reason to push for a universal DH.

First off, you have to love reporters and fans playing Twitter doctors in making the case stress fractures happen because of batting. Naturally, this shows complete ignorance of what a stress fracture actually is.

According to the Mayo Clinic and just about any doctor, a stress fracture is “caused by repetitive force, often from overuse.” It can also be caused by “normal use of a bone that’s weakened by a condition such as osteoporosis.” It’s also noteworthy an injured person or player “might barely notice the pain associated with a stress fracture, but it tends to worsen with time.”

Put another way, it’s extremely unlikely Gallen suffered a repetitive motion injury because he swung that bat during Spring Training. Like most pitchers, his repetitive use injury was likely due to some combination of how he trains or pitching. While proponents of the universal DH pretend otherwise, pitchers injure themselves when pitching, not when they’re batting.

This is just like when Chien-Ming Wang suffered an injury because he was running and stepped on a base. Put another way, Wang hurt himself doing what he would’ve done while covering first base on a ball hit to the first baseman. Really, Wang injured himself playing baseball.

That’s also part of the issue here. If you want to look towards a pitcher injured because of the lack of a universal DH, you really have to go back to Wang in 2008. That is over a decade ago. Again, it needs to be reiterated, he hurt himself running and stepping on a base just like he would do covering first base.

Really, pitcher injuries are a ridiculous reason to argue for a universal DH. Simply put, pitchers do not injure themselves batting or running the bases. Remember, these are athletes, they really aren’t going to hurt themselves swinging a bat or running. Pitchers hurt themselves because of the stress a shoulder and elbow undergoes when pitching.

Keep in mind, there are far more dangers to pitching than batting. Aside from the act of pitching itself, there are comebackers coming at the pitcher at speeds at excess of 100 MPH. It’s dangerous, and we have seen pitchers get severely injured. Instead of trying to find ways to lessen the potential injures a pitcher faces whether through rule changes or protective gear, people shrug and throw their arms up.

However, when it comes to injuries related to swinging a bat or running the bases, which never really happens, people are up in arms screaming about the universal DH. Make no mistake, it has nothing to do with pitcher health. It is just people who love a failed gimmick looking to make a disingenuous argument.

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Sorry ESPN, Jacob deGrom Is Better Than Gerrit Cole

For the second straight year, ESPN has ranked Gerrit Cole ahead of Jacob deGrom in their annual top 100 player rankings. This is done despite Cole never out-pitching deGrom in their respective careers. Really, just look at the numbers.

In 2018, deGrom not only won his first Cy Young, but he also established himself as the best pitcher in all of baseball. Since that time, deGrom leads the majors in innings, ERA, FIP, and WAR. He’s second in WHIP, xFIP, and soft contact%. He is third in strikeouts and fourth in hard hit rate.

With the exception of strikeouts Cole is a clear and defined step behind deGrom. It’s also not just deGrom. We see Cole is also behind Chris Sale and Max Scherzer in terms of FIP. That is not to say Cole hasn’t established himself as an ace. He has done that. Rather, it is just an indication he has been a clear step behind deGrom.

Even if you want to point to ages, you are heading in the wrong direction. Yes, deGrom is older at 32 years of age, and Cole presumably has more of a prime ahead of him with his being two years younger. However, when you look at deGrom, there is absolutely no indication he is slowing down. Just look at how he is ramping things up this Spring Training:

Fact is deGrom has been the best pitcher in baseball since 2018, and there are no signs he is slowing down. In fact, he is still ramping it up hitting 102 MPH on his fastball while throwing a mid 90s slider during Spring Training. He is among the most intense competitors we have ever seen from the mound.

Really, if you are going to pick a pitcher ahead of deGrom, you are going to need a better reason than Cole “being affected by the stop-and-start nature of last year’s pandemic-shortened season.” There’s not doubt Cole and everyone else was; however, deGrom was already better than Cole before Cole was affected by anything.

Right now, until someone suddenly gains superpowers, there is no pitcher in baseball better than deGrom. Suggesting otherwise is making an argument not based in fact, and your hot take is whiffing worse than anyone who has flailed away at a deGrom fastball, change, or slider.

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Mets Shouldn’t Be Retiring Any More Player Numbers

Mike Piazza perhaps let the cat out of the bag when he intimated the New York Mets may start retiring more numbers. Of course, this shouldn’t come as a shock when the organization announced Jerry Koosman‘s 36 was going to be retired.

Looking at the Mets franchise history, this is quite the Steinbrenner type of move.

After the simply bizarre act of retiring Casey Stengel‘s number, the Mets put the highest of standards for retiring player numbers. In fact, prior to the Koosman announcement, it was an honor solely reserved for Hall of Famers.

It’s a standard which frankly makes sense. Number retirement should be an honor presented to the true legends of your franchise. By definition, that’s what the Hall of Famers are.

If we sort through team history, if not for a completely and arbitrary application of an theretofore unenforced rule Gary Carter would be in the Hall of Fame as a Met. That would’ve led to the retirement of his 8.

It’s also quite possible we may one day see Keith Hernandez and Carlos Beltran inducted. With that should come their numbers being retired. At least with respect to Hernandez, that would be an extremely popular decision.

Past that duo, the only player who you can conceive of hitting that level is Jacob deGrom. That’s something that needs consideration.

When a number is retired, the franchise is putting a player at the level of Tom Seaver, Piazza, and quite possibly deGrom. Looking at the team history, they don’t have players at that level. They really don’t.

That includes David Wright who is an extremely popular choice amongst the fans. If not for injuries, he very well might’ve. By the same token, if not for addiction, Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry not only would’ve been at that level, but quite possibly, would’ve been a step above Wright.

Fact is Wright is a Mets great, but he’s not a baseball great. Yes, he deserves honoring by the Mets, but a number retirement is just too high of an honor. That should be reserved for the true legends to wear a Mets uniform.

Keep in mind, as discussed on the Simply Amazin Podcast, much of the case for Wright can dwindle over time. For example, if Michael Conforto re-signs, he should take over a good chunk of Wright’s records.

After that, we could see someone else surpass both players. Part of the reason is the records on the books isn’t particularly impressive for a franchise. Keep in mind, that’s not saying Wright’s career numbers aren’t impressive. They are. However, as a franchise leader, it’s not.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. The issue just is where you start drawing lines.

For example, for all the push for Wright, John Franco remains the franchise all-time saves leader, has the most saves of any left-handed pitcher in MLB history, and he was a captain. Despite that, there seems little to no push to retire his number even with his being a Met longer just as long as Wright.

Really, when you look at both, yes, they should be honored, but in reality, it should be short of number retirement. In reality, that’s why there’s a Mets Hall of Fame.

The answer should be to make the Mets Hall of Fame into a destination at Citi Field. Really showcase the Mets greats honoring them the way they should be honored. That’s far more fitting than trying to elevate players like Wright to the levels of Seaver.

In the end, there’s nothing wrong with not having many numbers retired. In many ways, that makes that honor all the more meaningful. It’s better to keep it that way while also finding an appropriate way to honor the Mets greats who aren’t in the Hall of Fame.

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Reasons Mets Should Not Extend Francisco Lindor

The New York Mets are currently negotiating a long term contract extension with Francisco Lindor which may very well surpass $300 million. Here are the reasons why the Mets should be cautious and not give Lindor such an extension:

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What You Missed From Mets Not Televised Spring Training Game

Because MLB hasn’t quite figured out its diehard fans want to see Spring Training games, New York Mets fans have to wait to see what happened. They missed all they wanted to see.

Jacob deGrom was brilliant for 4.2 scoreless innings throwing between 99-102 MPH.

He’s actually get some run support with future captain Michael Conforto and future Hall of Famer Francisco Lindor homering.

Miguel Castro was terrific again with a scoreless inning, and Dellin Betances seemed to right the ship with a scoreless inning himself. All told, it was a 6-2 victory over the Washington Nationals.

All-in-all not a bad day. The only downside was no one was able to watch it.

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Leiters: Like Father, Like Son

In his first conference game of the season, Jack Leiter furthered his case to be the first pick in the draft throwing a 16 strikeout no-hitter.

It’s at least somewhat reminiscent of Al Leiter throwing the first no-hitter in Florida Marlins history.

How many father/son duos can say they both have no-hitters? How many of them can say they were Major League pitchers (Jack will certainly be one in the not too distant future).

Seeing Jack pitch, as a Mets fan, you can’t help but feel good for Leiter, who was a very good Met who belongs in the Mets Hall of Fame.

It also serves as a reminder how Leiter took a step back from broadcasting to be able to spend time with his son and see him pitch. It allowed him to not only help his son reach this level, but also for him to just be a dad who gets to enjoy these moments.

Someday, you hope to see Jack Leiter continuing to follow in his father’s footsteps and pitch for the Mets. Mostly, you wish for him to have the great career he seems poised to have.

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Corey Oswalt Should Make Opening Day Roster

If this was just based on performance, Corey Oswalt has been one of the New York Mets best pitchers this Spring Training, and as a result, he should be on the Opening Day roster. If nothing else, we have heard on a number of occasions Luis Rojas has been impressed with how Oswalt has looked.

One of the biggest developments for Oswalt has his finding that extra gear on his fastball. Now, this could be the result of his going shorter stints during the Spring. It could also be the result of the Mets making more advanced data available to their pitchers and coaching staff. Whatever the case, that velocity is there right now.

If the concern is he couldn’t maintain it as a starter, the Mets do have spots open in the bullpen due to injuries this Spring. In his first Spring appearance, he struck out five of the six St. Louis Cardinals batters he faced. Now, it should be noted that came against mostly minor league players for the Cardinals, but it did happen.

More importantly, as noted, the velocity happened, and according to reports, it is something that has carried forward into team workouts and B games. Long story short, Oswalt has seemingly made the jump that took him from a fifth starter ceiling to possibly something more as a Major League pitcher.

In years past, especially given the injury to Carlos Carrasco, that could have meant a shot at joining the Mets Opening Day rotation. However, with David Peterson‘s emergence last year coupled with the acquisitions of Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto at the moment, there is no spot for Oswalt in the rotation in the short or long term.

That would mean the bullpen is the best destination for Oswalt. In many ways, it makes sense to send him there. He’s shown the increased velocity and effectiveness in the shorter spurts. Moreover, with Seth Lugo down, the Mets really need someone to fill that role. No, no one is saying Oswalt could be a Lugo in the bullpen, but rather, he can definitively be the type of reliever who can give the Mets multiple innings out of the bullpen.

Given the truncated 2020 season, that is of increased performance. It is also noteworthy with Taijuan Walker and some combination of Lucchesi, Peterson, and Yamamoto for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, the Mets are running three 5+ inning starters out there. That puts a stress on the bullpen to pick up the slack, especially when that happens three consecutive games.

Having Oswalt out there can alleviate some of that burden. Really, of all the pitchers currently in camp, it is just him and Robert Gsellman who can fill that type of a role. Given the rotation, the Mets probably need two or more pitchers who can reliably give you 2+ innings.

In some ways, just picking a role for Oswalt is what can best help him succeed as a pitcher. Remember, this is a pitcher who has bounced between starting and relieving for three years now. That has been coupled with abusive use and inexplicable fallow periods. If nothing else, this would put Oswalt in the best position to succeed.

If he succeeds, he can then help the Mets succeed in 2021. He has the increased velocity, and he has the ability to eat some innings for the bullpen. Looking at performance and need out there, Oswalt should be in the Opening Day bullpen.

 

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