20/20 Hindsight: Mets Walk The Plank

The New York Mets had a golden opportunity with seven straight games against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Somehow, they started the stretch with a split:

1. Blowing a five run first inning lead to the Pirates is completely unacceptable.

2. Part of blowing that game was bullpenning. As correctly noted by Zack Braziller, if you’re the Mets, you do that you should choose a seven inning game and not the nine inning game.

3. That game was exactly why they waited so long on calling the Jacob deGrom start.

4. Luis Rojas has been really good, but in these bullpen games he just gets too greedy pushing relievers an extra inning. Pushing Miguel Castro, who was been bad lately, is a classic example of that.

5. It’s odd that Rojas and the Mets don’t trust Drew Smith. For the most part, when he’s been called upon, he performs.

6. Simply put, while they shouldn’t have been All-Stars, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo are currently playing and at MVP level.

7. . Taijuan Walker was a very deserving All-Star, and it will be great to see him pitch on Tuesday. It’s still shocking to believe the Mets were his only offer.

8. You’re going to get game like that from Tylor Megill. It’s why he’s a fifth starter. It’s also why the Mets really need Carlos Carrasco back to ensure Megill is the fifth starter.

9. That homer from Michael Conforto was much needed. The Mets really need him to have a big turnaround on his season much like Dominic Smith has.

10. With the draft last night, and Kumar Rocker fortunately falling to the Mets, its interesting to note with Smith, Nimmo, and Conforto, the Mets starting outfield is all first round picks.

11. This is just another reminder of how just impossibly good the Mets are at drafting. They really don’t pay those guys enough money.

12. With Jonathan Villar homering from both sides of the plate, you see a player not willing to give up his third base job to J.D. Davis.

13. On that note, it’s interesting to hear Rojas say he’s not giving Davis the job back. It’ll also be interesting to see what exactly the Mets do with the position at the trade deadline.

14. Seeing the series against the Pirates, the Mets main need at the deadline seems to be the bullpen. Too many of their guys are tired and have been pushed too much.

15. If Adam Frazier wants to come to the Mets, he sure made a good impression. Still, there are some real question marks about the wisdom of adding him.

16. The Mets offense has shown they can be clutch, and they’ve shown the propensity for the big inning, but we’re not seeing them be able to sustain an onslaught throughout a game.

17. Luis Guillorme continues to be clutch and a good pinch hitter.

18. Heading into the break. deGrom is the Mets best pitcher, and Lindor is the best position player. For all the hysteria, that’s what you ultimately expected.

19. For all the disappointment and consternation over this split, the Mets are still in first place heading into the break.

20. Again, if you haven’t already, take the time to help Howard Johnson‘s grandson who suffered an injury in a regrettable accident.

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Kumar Is Going To Shake Shack

Sure, the New York Mets inexplicably blew a 5-0 first inning lead to the lousy Pittsburgh Pirates, but it’s still a great day for the organization. The reason? They drafted Kumar Rocker!

Before the year, Rocker was expected to be the first overall pick. For various reasons, including perceived signability as well as a late year dip in velocity, Rocket moved down the draft board. Still, with there were rumors it could happen, no one really expected him to fall to 10 where the Mets were drafting.

Still, that didn’t stop the Mets from doing their due diligence. Tommy Tanous, Marc Tramuta, and other Mets scouts went to see Rocker pitch. They saw a pitcher they thought had elite stuff and an elite makeup. They saw someone they didn’t expect to be available.

Despite everyone passing, they weren’t fooled, and they made the best pick possible. It’s what they did when they grabbed Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto, David Peterson, Jared Kelenic, and others.

Simply put, the Mets know how to draft. They’ve become great at it, and on a day like today, when a player unexpectedly falls to them, they know exactly what to do.

That was to grab an exceptionally talented pitcher. As noted by MLB Pipeline, he had quite the repertoire with a developing change and more:

He usually operates at 93-96 mph with his heater, which can reach 99 and features some run and sink but also can get flat at times, though his velocity sat in the low 90s for three weeks early in the season. He notched all 19 of his whiffs in his no-hitter with his slider, a mid-80s beast with power and depth that grades as plus-plus, and he also has a low-80s curveball with more vertical break. 

What Rocker will be is anyone’s guess. That said, he has ace potential, and he’s with a Mets organization which develops pitching quite well. Just ask Jacob deGrom and Seth Lugo.

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Mets Should Probably Avoid Adam Frazier

In the first of seven straight games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the New York Mets got a good luck at popular trade target Adam Frazier. He certainly impressed going 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI.

It was the latest in what has been an All-Star season for Frazier. In 86 games, he’s hitting .328/.397/.464 with 26 doubles, four triples, four homers, and 29 RBI.

Frazier has a 2.6 WAR and a 138 wRC+. Among MLB second basemen, his WAR ranks fifth and his wRC+ ranks second. That’s extremely impressive, and his having another year of control makes him all the more enticing.

That said, the Mets shouldn’t look to add him at the trade deadline.

First, there’s the defense issue. Frazier would just be another second baseman who can’t play third to the mix. Maybe this will finally be the move which forces Jeff McNeil to third, which would be great, but it’s doubtful considering the Mets stubborn refusal to move McNeil off second.

If Frazier is slotted for second, it’s difficult to tell how he’d play. While he’s had elite numbers some years, he’s been terrible in others. This year, he’s a -2 DRS and -1 OAA.

On the defensive front, it’s possible the Mets believe their shifting and positioning could help Frazier play like an elite defender again. Seeing the Mets defensive turnaround this season, we shouldn’t doubt them.

With Frazier, the bigger issue is the bat. Yes, he’s having a great year. However, when you dig into the numbers, you see a player in line for a regression towards the 100 wRC+ player he was entering the season.

Frazier entered the year with a career .303 BABIP, and he’s at a .363 this season. Going to Baseball Savant, his barrels and exit velocities are very low. Actually, as luck would have it, they’re the worst of his career.

These are not the numbers of a player having career best power hitting numbers or for that matter, a career year.

Now, there are some good things with Frazier. His line drive rate is up, and his plate discipline has improved. He’s also a tough strikeout.

Taken all together, Frazier is an absolutely improved player at the plate, but he’s not as good as he is now. Frazier isn’t a good defender now, but he has been, and the right team can get more from him.

The obvious caveat is if the price is right, the Mets should look to add him. He’s a clear upgrade. That said, the cost will probably outweigh his value, and to some extent, Frazier is quite duplicative to what the Mets already have in Luis Guillorme, Jose Peraza, and Jonathan Villar.

It would seem the Mets attention is better focused elsewhere to address the real third base and bullpen vacancies. They also don’t want to be in a position to pay a premium price for a player due to regress both in the second half and next season.

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Mets Hang 10 In Sixth

For a moment, it appeared like the Mets were going to be in an unexpectedly tight game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Through five-and-a-half, the game was knotted at 2-2.

At that point, Taijuan Walker was done after allowing two runs over five. It wasn’t his best outing by any stretch, but he did keep the Mets in the game.

Finally, in the sixth, the Mets offense exploded against JT Brubaker and the Prates bullpen:

https://twitter.com/mets/status/1413673454545645570?s=21

https://twitter.com/mets/status/1413673454545645570?s=21

With that 10 run rally, the game was blown open, and the Mets were well on their way to a 13-4 victory. Aaron Loup was the winning pitcher after pitching a scoreless sixth.

What’s incredible to think about is even with the Mets scoring 13 runs, Nimmo, McCann, and Villar were the only players with multi-hit games. In terms of Villar, both hits were homers:

Even though this was a laugher, the end was annoying. Nick Tropeano and Yennsy Diaz couldn’t find the zone and both allowed runs. There was also a roughly 40 minute rain delay.

Even with that nuisance, this was a good win for a team now assured of entering the All-Star Break in first place. They can further cement that spot during this seven game stretch against the Pirates.

Game Notes: Walker was officially named an All-Star after the game. Jacob deGrom is opting out of the game.

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Taijuan Walker Didn’t Give Up Grand Slam To Rookie Reliever

Before the game between the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals, the Nationals social media team put forth their case for Max Scherzer to be named an All-Star. Basically, they tried to say Scherzer is better than Padres All-Star Yu Darvish:

Well, things didn’t go well for Scherzer after this. The Nationals ace blew an 8-0 lead. The worst of it was when Padres ROOKIE RELIEVER Daniel Camarena hit a grand slam.

Lets repeat that: A rookie reliever hit a grand slam off of Scherzer. That just doesn’t happen.

Well, it did, and as a result, the case for Taijuan Walker being an All-Star is now all the stronger. Of course, this has nothing to do with the first place Mets not having an All-Star when Jacob deGrom will not be in attendance in Colorado.

After last night’s Scherzer debacle, Walker’s FIP lead over Scherzer is 3.07 to 3.32. His ERA lead is 2.44 to 2.66. His ERA+ lead is 158 to 140. His not giving up homers to rookie relievers lead is 0 to 1.

Overall, Walker should’ve been an All-Star the first go-around, and his case is all the stronger today. Hopefully, the right decision is made with Walker being added to the All-Star team.

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Help Howard Johnson’s Grandson

Former New York Mets great Howard Johnson took to social media seeking help after his grandson suffered a horrific accident. His foot got run over by a lawnmower, and as a result, part of his foot was severed.

The medical bills are and will continue to be extensive. There is a Go Fund Me set-up to collect the monies needed. At the moment, roughly one-third of the money has been raised. There’s the caveat the fees could be more substantial than anticipated.

To the extent you can help, please do. This isn’t about a former Mets player we adored. It’s about a little boy who has been severely injured and a family who desperately needs your help.

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20/20 Hindsight: Mets Brewing Something Special

The NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers came to Citi Field with their pitching lined up. It was the Mets who took two out of three:

1. While the consternation of the split doubleheader seven inning games is justified, the larger issue is the fact seven inning doubleheaders exist.

2. The extremely long rain delay at Citi Field was the first of the Steve Cohen era, but when you’re trying to get an extra Jacob deGrom start, you do it.

3. Recently, deGrom has gone from super-human to merely being just the best pitcher in baseball.

4. deGrom is correct. With his sitting out the All-Star Game, Taijuan Walker absolutely should take his place.

5. You hate to overreact to things, but it was incredibly frustrating watching Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, and Pete Alonso strike out with the bases loaded in a 3-0 game.

6. It should be noted they’ve all been so good lately (and for the last few years) we shouldn’t blow it out of proportions. That goes double when you see how they combined to win Monday’s game.

7. Jose Peraza homering off Josh Hader was another indication this team is special and well built for October.

8. Speaking of that moment, Luis Rojas had an excellent series and was pushing all the right buttons. For example, one under the Radar move was pinch running Billy McKinney for Alonso in the late innings, which permitted him to get the faster runner and reset the defense.

9. One thing which is becoming increasingly obvious is Brandon Nimmo is the most important hitter on this team.

10. Jeff McNeil is turning a corner (i.e. getting some luck), and his game winning hit was a huge moment for him and the team.

11. That doubleheader really was a tale of the bases loaded. In the first game, McNeil delivered the walk-off hit. In the second, they literally struck out.

12. We don’t know if it’s the early usage, the lack of substances, or something else, but Miguel Castro looks done.

13. James McCann had a great AB in the first game of the doubleheader fighting for that walk to load the bases. It’s indicative of just how good he’s been lately, and how he’s outplaying J.T. Realmuto (h/t Brian Mangan).

14. Great job by Robert Stock to give the Mets a credible start in the second game of the doubleheader.

15. Giving him 89 is the continuation of a dumb practice of forcing Major Leaguers to try to prove they deserve a real number.

16. Tylor Megill is having a 2006 John Maine impact on this team. If he continues, and it looks like he will, they won’t need to add a pitcher at the trade deadline.

17. If the Mets won’t move McNeil to third, third base is their biggest hole and most important area to attack at the trade deadline. Josh Donaldson would make a lot of sense.

18. Of course Adam Fox is a Mets and Rangers fan. It’s because he’s awesome.

19. Win or lose, this Mets team has no quit. That makes them a very special group, and the Mets may not want to tinker too much with the clubhouse.

20. The Mets have seven straight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s time to make a big run.

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Mets Don’t Need Starter At Trade Deadline

With the New York Mets in first place and there is earnest discussion over what the Mets should add at the trade deadline. With all the injuries, the discussion has centered on starting pitching.

Before delving into potential names, the first consideration should be the Mets only need four starters to get them through the postseason. With respect to that, they have a phenomenal foundation with

  1. Jacob deGrom
  2. Marcus Stroman
  3. Taijuan Walker

By ERA, that’s the best 1-2-3 in the majors. That’s especially impressive considering they are missing their second and third best pitchers in Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard.

Now, it’s a dangerous game waiting for injured players to return. That goes double for pitchers. For example, we’ve already seen Carrasco’s and Syndergaard’s return dates pushed back repeatedly.

However, on that note, Carrasco is throwing batting practice, and he’s throwing in the mid 90s. After another session, he may be set for a rehab assignment.

If Carrasco continues on this path, he will have at least one start in the majors prior to the trade deadline. If he’s back in the rotation by then, there’s no sense in adding another starter.

As we’ve seen, Tylor Megill has the stuff to at least be a five and fly starter. There’s also David Peterson and Corey Oswalt, who could be available soon after their IL stints. Again, we shouldn’t count on them, but they’re part of the equation. That’s nothing to say of Syndergaard who MAY return in September in some capacity.

In terms of the fifth starter spot, they have the numbers to address it. We should keep in mind whoever that starter is, it’s unlikely they’ll be on the postseason roster, at least not as a starter.

To that point, if the Mets are looking to add pitching at the trade deadline, perhaps they should be looking more at relievers. They’ve already seen an incredible number of injuries on that front, and Miguel Castro, who was supposed to be a key piece of the bullpen, has lost his effectiveness.

Of course, if Carrasco has yet another set-back, the Mets should pivot. Moreover, if the right deal presents itself, the Mets shouldn’t object to improving the roster. That said, the team has much bigger holes in the bullpen and at third base, and after what Brodie Van Wagenen did to the roster, they have somewhat limited resources to add at the trade deadline.

Taking everything into account, as of right now, the Mets focus shouldn’t be on adding a starter. It should be on building the best possible postseason roster.

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Mets Stubborn Refusal To Postpone deGrom Start Absolutely Right Call

One in the ways things have been very different under Steve Cohen is handling rain outs. Whereas the Wilpons collected money for a few hours, Cohen’s Mets have typically called games well in advance thereby preventing fans from even having to leave their houses to come to Citi Field.

That is typically the case, but it wasn’t on Tuesday. No, the Mets absolutely refused to call the game. Fans were there for two-and-a-half hours before the Mets finally relented and called the game. Of course, there were some “fans” who were upset.

While it seems excessive, there was very good reason for the Mets handling of the situation. First and foremost, as we saw, the Mets actually believed there was a window where they could play the game.

More than the belief they could actually play, there was a more overarching reason. Playing the game meant the Mets could maximize the amount of times Jacob deGrom pitched.

If deGrom pitched on Tuesday, he would be ready to pitch again on Sunday. That’s two starts heading into the break. With him starting Sunday, he would then be excused from the All-Star Game. That’s an important consideration with deGrom dealing with aches and pains for about a month.

This would have also permitted deGrom to pitch on Friday, which is the first game after the break. That would’ve meant deGrom would pitch three times over the Mets next seven games.

If you’re the Mets, you have to do absolutely everything you can to make that happen. deGrom is the best pitcher in the game, and he gives the Mets their best chance to win.

Now, deGrom is going to start just one more time before the break. He won’t be excused from the All-Star Game, and if he pitches in the game, he may not be set to pitch on Friday.

Overall, deGrom not pitching Tuesday hurts the Mets. They knew that, and they did all they could to play. While it’s frustrating for the fans (who were taken care of in some capacity), it was the right call.

When you can pitch deGrom, you pitch him. You do everything you can to make it happen. The.Mets did that, and they deserve to be commended for it.

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Tylor Megill Reminiscent Of John Maine

Back in 2006, the New York Mets were in first place, but they were running out of starting pitchers. As a result, they called up John Maine.

Maine was a hard throwing right-handed pitcher who never quite looked ready for the majors, at least he didn’t in Baltimore. However, with Rick Peterson and Willie Randolph, something clicked.

Maine was able to use his fastball and slider to earn a permanent spot in the Mets rotation. Maine began to really force the issue at the end of his July 8 start.

Maine had allowed a go-ahead homer in the sixth before retiring the final two batters of the inning. That started a stretch of 26 innings. By that time, a Mets team looking to add a starter felt comfortable balking at the steep prices, and of course, they had to pivot due to Duaner Sanchez’s cab ride.

Maine would have a strong 2006 season going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA, 122 ERA+, 1.113 WHIP, and a 7.1 K/9.

What ensued was a crazy postseason where he was an emergency replacement for an injured Orlando Hernandez right before Game 1 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Maine was terrific that postseason including his picking up a win in Game 6 of the NLCS.

What Maine did that season is difficult to emulate, but as previously noted, Megill is emulating that right now. We saw another sign in his last start where he went toe-to-toe with Brandon Woodruff over five innings.

Like Maine in 2006, Megill is only in the majors due to injuries, and he may be here to stay because of them. Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard have yet to pitch this season, and their time tables keep getting pushed back.

Joey Lucchesi had season ending Tommy John surgery. Jordan Yamamoto is on the 60 day IL. David Peterson has hit the IL. The end result has been Megill rushed to the majors and getting his opportunity, and the Mets suddenly and somewhat unexpectedly being in a position where they’ll need to look to add a starter at the trade deadline.

With every start, Megill is alleviating those concerns. Working with Jeremy Hefner and Luis Rojas, he’s taken his game to another level. Working predominantly with his fastball and slider, he increasingly looks like a Major League starter.

So far, he’s made three starts. He hasn’t registered a decision yet, but he has improved with each start. He has a 104 ERA+ and a very impressive 11.9 K/9. That’s even with him walking a couple of batters more than you’d like . . . much like Maine.

With his poise, repertoire, demeanor, and this coaching staff, there’s no reason to believe Megill won’t continue to improve. With each successive start, he’ll make the case he not only should be a part of this rotation, but he can be a part of a World Series contending team.

Again, that’s where the Mets were in 2006. John Maine gave them some comfort they could address other needs because Maine stabilized the rotation. When the pitchers didn’t heal like the Mets had hoped, and others pitchers got injured, Maine had a strong postseason giving the Mets every opportunity to win the pennant.

Megill is showing he can be that type of pitcher. He can be the stopgap. He can be the pitcher who convinces the Mets they don’t need to add pitching at the deadline. He can have a real impact this postseason.

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