Early on this season, it appeared as if it would be Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw as the main competitors for the Cy Young Award. When healthy, Kershaw is always going to be the Cy Young front runner. However, Syndergaard seemed to be arriving ahead of schedule.
In his first start against the Royals, Syndergaard was doing the usual in throwing his fastball over 100 MPH. However, it was his slider that looked like a game changer. Syndergaard was striking out Royals left and right with his brand new 95 MPH slider. Syndergaard would carry it forward, and he would be utterly dominant to start the season. Up until the bone spurs became an issue, Syndergaard was 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.989 WHIP.. Before the bone spurs, Syndergaard was in the conversation to be the starting pitcher at the All Star Game. However, with the bone spurs, Syndergaard would miss the All Star Game, and he would start to regress.
In a nine start stretch, starting with a three inning outing that saw the Nationals knock him around the ballpark, Syndergaard would go 2-5 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.592 WHIP. Syndergaard was no longer in the Cy Young discussion. Rather, the discussion was whether he could continue to pitch effectively with the bone spurs. Syndergaard has found a way to do that. In his last three starts, Syndergaard is 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA and a 0.545 WHIP. He is going deep into games pitching seven, seven, and eight innings. He’s winning important games down the stretch that includes
Through it all, Syndergaard is 12-8 with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.111 WHIP. His ERA is the third best in the National League. His 188 strikeouts rank fourth in the National League. His 10.4 strikeouts per nine also ranks fourth in the National League. Additionally, Syndergaard has allowed the least amount of homers per nine innings in the majors, and he also has the best strikeout to walk ratio. Syndergaard’s quality start percentage is 69%, which is the fifth best in the National League.
Going into the more advanced numbers, Syndergaard’s 4.3 WAR ranks eighth in the Nationals League. His 157 ERA+ ranks third in the National League. Syndergaard’s 2.32 FIP is the best in the major leagues.
With Kershaw missing most of the season, the National League Cy Young race is up for grabs. Everyone can name their own personal front runner whether it is Madison Bumgarner, Kyle Hendricks, or Max Scherzer. As we have seen from Sydnergaard’s statistics, no matter the list you compile, your list is going to be incomplete if it does not include Syndergaard. In fact, if Syndergaard continues his current streak of dominance, he may very well find himself winning the Cy Young Award.
The Mets just about blew this game in every way, shape, and form. And yet, Yoenis Cespedes wouldn’t let them lose.
Rafael Montero was handed a 2-0 lead as a result of Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes solo home runs off Brandon Finnegan. However, Montero would give it back as his high wire act came crashing down to Earth.
In the third, Montero issued a one out walk to Zack Cozart. Montero then paid no attention to him, so Cozart stole second. It was your classic Travis d’Arnaud didn’t throw out the runner who got a massive jump situation. After that, Montero would break an 0-27 streak opposing batters had against Mets pitching with runners in scoring position when Adam Duvall crushed a game tying two run homer.
The Reds would then go ahead in the fifth with Montero still struggling. He allowed a lead off triple to Hernan Irabarren. He would then issue a one out walk to Cozart. At that point, through 4.1 innings where Montero allowed three hits and four walks, Terry Collins had seen enough. He went to the bullpen to get a left-handed to pitch to Joey Votto to get the biggest out in the game.
Collins could’ve gone with Jerry Blevins, who has been the Mets best lefty out if the pen. He could’ve gone with Josh Smoker who is a strikeout machine. No, Collins went with his worst possible option with Josh Edgin, who still has not regained his velocity.
Votto would lift a fly ball to right. Jay Bruce, the man with the highly touted throwing arm, made a weak and offline throw to home plate allowing Irabarren to score giving the Reds a 3-2 lead.
It seemed it would stay that way after a brutal top of the sixth. Bruce led off with a single, and he moved to second on a brutal Duvall fielding error. First, d’Arnaud couldn’t get him home as he flinched on a pitch that was clearly a strike. After a Granderson hit by pitch, Kelly Johnson, pinch hitting for Matt Reynolds, just beat out the relay throw to avoid the 3-6-3 double play. Michael Conforto, pinch hitting for Ynoa, struck out looking on a ball that looked off the plate. Apparently, it was too close to take.
In the seventh, Cespedes would start to take over. Asdrubal Cabrera summoned all he could with his injured knee to leg out an infield single to get on in front of Cespedes. Cespedes then did his thing:
The ball just cleared the center field wall to give the Mets a 4-3 lead.
In the eighth, Cespedes wouldn’t let the Reds get something going. Mets killer Brandon Phillips lined a ball to the left field wall off Addison Reed. Cespedes fielded the ball cleanly as it ricocheted off the wall, turned, and delivered a perfect strike to Johnson.
From there, Alejandro De Aza hit a pinch hit homer, the Mets 11th of the season, to give the Mets a 5-3 lead. That two run cushion was more than enough for Jeurys Familia who recorded his 46th save of the year.
This game was another example of how important Cespedes is to the Mets, and how much they need him healthy down the stretch.
Game Notes: Collins made six pitching changes with the expanded rosters. Gavin Cecchini, T.J. Rivera, Eric Campbell, and Brandon Nimmo joined the team today, but would not enter the game.
What is most interesting about the Mets calling up Gavin Cecchini is the fact that the Mets did not need him.
The Mets didn’t need him to play shortstop. Even with a lingering knee injury, Asdrubal Cabrera is able to play everyday. If and when Cabrera needs time off, the Mets have sufficient depth on their current roster to address the shortstop position. Both Jose Reyes and Wilmer Flores can slide over in a pinch. Matt Reynolds has shown himself to be a good defender at the position. In an emergency, Eric Campbell and Kelly Johnson have played there and have not embarrassed themselves.
Recently, Cecchini has been playing at second base. He has worked there over the season, and he has played three of his last four AAA games at the position. Even with Neil Walker‘s season ending surgery, he isn’t needed there either. Flores and Johnson are more than capable of replicating Walker’s numbers with their platoon splits and hot hitting. Reynolds has shown he can handle the position adeptly. In an emergency situation, both Campbell and Ty Kelly are more than capable of playing second base.
While Cecchini hasn’t played third, the Mets have an incredible amount of depth over there, and that was even before the expanded rosters. So, again, it begs the question: why was Cecchini called up?
It’s an important question because with the Mets calling up Cecchini, the team is starting the clock on him. It doesn’t make sense for the Mets to start the clock on Cecchini when he could reasonably be considered the Mets second baseman of the future. Given Walker’s back and the Mets trading Dilson Herrera, maintaining control over Cecchini has become more important than it once was. It’s why it is very interesting the Mets are now adding Cecchini to the 40 man roster, a few months before they needed, and called him up now.
The move would only make sense if the Mets were actually intending upon playing Cecchini everyday at second base. If the Mets were to do that, it would allow the team to let Flores and Johnson platoon at first base instead of second thereby removing James Loney‘s poor offensive production from the lineup. Now, there is some danger in this. As we have seen with Terry Collins handling of Michael Conforto and other young talent, Collins doesn’t trust young players, and he gives them very little rope. As we have seen with Conforto, this could have a detrimental effect on a young player’s development. It’s a strange position to put Cecchini in, but it is the only one that makes sense.
Because at the end of the day, if the Mets are bringing up Cecchini just to sit on the bench, they’re not helping him. Worse yet, they are losing important control time over a player that could be their second baseman for years to come.
The Mets who were long said to have organizational pitching depth are once again at the point where they are pitching Rafael Montero in a pennant race. Worse yet, the Mets are pitching Montero in this spot because Jon Niese cannot make the start because he had knee surgery. With that said, it’s Montero who his making the start in place of the injured Jacob deGrom.
Keep in mind this is the same Montero who the Mets were apparently done with Montero this season.
The Mets were disgusted with him last year because they wanted him to pitch because there was a fundamental disagreement between him and the team regarding whether his shoulder was injured enough to pitch. After pitching horribly in his first Spring Training start, he was one of the first players sent down to minor league Spring Training. The Mets called him up briefly in April to help a struggling bullpen, but Collins almost refused to pitch him. After being put on the shelf for a week, he struggled. Montero then struggled in AAA when he was sent back down leading to his demotion to AA. With important prospects like Amed Rosario needing to be added to the 40 man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, it appeared Montero’s days in the Mets organization were coming to an end.
Now, with a rash of injuries, the Mets turn again to Montero to make a critical start during a pennant race. Once again, the Mets hope Montero can be the pitcher they always thought he would be.
In Montero’s first start of the season, he pitched five shutout innings against a Marlins team that was ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card standings. In those five shutout innings, he gave the Mets a chance to at least outlast Jose Fernandez and get into the Marlins bullpen to eke out a victory. On the glass half-empty side, you see a pitcher who allowed six walks and was constantly on the brink of disaster. He was a pitcher who needed 100 pitches to get through those five innings helping tax the Mets bullpen. On the glass half-full side, you see a pitcher who, despite getting squeezed by the home plate umpire, battled his way and kept his team in the game. You finally saw Montero persevere.
Tonight, we’re going to find out once again if the glass is half-empty or half-full. Montero is pitching against a bad Reds team in a hitter’s ballpark. The glass half-full Montero beats a team that he needs to beat. The glass half-empty Montero struggles in a hitter’s park. So far, the glass has been half-empty with Montero, but there is still time to change that.
As the Mets head into the stretch drive with only 25 games remaining on the schedule, Terry Collins has made it abundantly clear he is going to rely heavily on his veterans down the stretch.
In Michael Conforto‘s first game back from AAA, he was 1-3 with a double and a hit by pitch. He sat the next day. In his second start, Conforto would go 1-3 with another double and a walk. On top of that, he had a game changing diving stop in center field. Despite Collins’ “You hit, you play” mantra, Conforto is sitting.
In his stead, Curtis Granderson is playing. Granderson is playing despite struggling himself most of the season. He’s struggling more so with runners in scoring position. He’s also miscast as a center fielder despite his having been a pretty good one earlier in his career.
With that in mind, the Mets need Granderson out there producing. The team needs the Granderson who was the Mets MVP of the 2015 season. They need the guy who hit three homers in last year’s World Series.
After what has been a season to forget, that Granderson seems to finally be reemerging. In his first at bat with runners in scoring position as the newly and implausibly minted cleanup hitter, Granderson delivered with a two run single.
On Sunday night, Granderson followed with a sacrifice fly scoring Jose Reyes from third. Later in the game, Granderson hit a go-ahead two run home run. In two games as the cleanup hitter, Granderson has five RBI.
If the Mets are going to finish off this run and win the Wild Card, the Mets are going to need this Granderson to help lead the way. They need him because he’s an important part of this team. They need him because the Mets need something resembling lineup protection for Yoenis Cespedes. They need him because no matter what, Collins is going to play him.
There’s just something about August and September that Terry Collins’ insane decision making just seems to work. Tonight, it was Curtis Granderson: Cleanup Hitter.
There is no reason to think this was a good idea. Granderson entered the game with only 40 RBI despite hitting 22 homers. He has a .126 batting average with runners in scoring position. It’s .070 with two outs. Yet, there he was – the Mets cleanup hitter. Naturally, it worked.
First, he came up in the bottom of the first with Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera on second and third with one out. Naturally, when Yoenis Cespedes couldn’t deliver, Granderson did. He would hit a sacrifice fly scoring Reyes to make it a 1-0 game.
The Nationals would tie the game at one in the second on a Danny Espinosa solo shot against Seth Lugo.
It was the lone blip on the night from Lugo, who just got stronger as the game went on. He navigated his way out of a bases loaded first inning jam getting Wilson Ramos to ground out. After the Espinosa homer, he completely shut down the Nationals. What was impressive again wasn’t just his curveball, but also his ability to dial up the fastball when he needed it. In a sixth inning strikeout of Ramos, Lugo dialed it up to 97. In fact, he got stronger as he went deeper into the game:
Lugo avg FB velo by inning:
1: 92.5 mph
2: 91.0
3: 92.5
4: 90.3
5: 92.3
6: 93.9Second straight start Lugo let it loose in his final IP
— Tim Finnegan (@timfinn521) September 5, 2016
His final line was seven innings, six hits, one run, one earned, no walks, and four strikeouts. Once again, he was economical throwing 101 pitches.
Lugo got the win, in part, because Granderson emerged again. Granderson would hit a two run home run to give the Mets a 3-1 lead. They wouldn’t look back.
In fact, they would tack on runs with the help of another strange Collins decision.
Despite going 1-3 with a walk and a GREAT defensive play, Collins benched Michael Conforto in favor of the slumping and ill at ease in New York Jay Bruce.
The move initially backfired as Bruce made the last out in the second trying to go first to third with two outs on a Lugo single. He would be nailed by Trea Turner. In fairness to Bruce, he was probably relying on Tim Teufel, who has been a bad third base coach.
In the sixth, he would make up for that and a lot of frustration with an opposite field two run shot:
With that, the Mets jumped out to a 5-1 lead. On a related note, Conforto may never play again.
Ultimately, however, this night was about Lugo who continues to get better and better. The Mets could’ve fallen apart after losing Steven Matz to the disabled list and Jacob deGrom missing starts with an arm injury that still has not been fully disclosed.
Instead, Lugo has stepped up, and he has arguably been the best starter on a Mets team one game out of a playoff spot. For those that truly believe and/or are off their meds, the Mets are 8.5 games out in the division.
By the way, Collins left on an insane note pitching Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to close it out because they haven’t been overworked enough and because the four run lead was in serious jeopardy. It was more so in the ninth with the bottom of the Nationals roster due up. He also left a hobbled Cabrera out there in the ninth.
Guess those moves “worked” too because the Mets won.
Game Notes: James Loney is scorching going 1-3 tonight.
Pennant Race: The Cardinals beat the Reds 5-2. The Pirates lost to the Brewers 10-0. The Giants lost to the Cubs 3-2. The Marlins lost to the Indians 6-5.
Sometimes all you need is a chance.
We saw it in Jacob deGrom in 2014. The 26 year old got a chance due to injuries, and the most of it. He not only showed the Mets he was a better pitcher than then well regarded prospect Rafael Montero, he also showed he was an important part of the Mets rotation going forward. From there, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year award, was named an All Star, and pitched the opener of the 2015 postseason. This all happened because he got a chance.
Seth Lugo is getting his chance, and like deGrom, he is making the most of it.
Initially, Lugo was called up to pitch out of the bullpen. He immediately made an impression with his awesome curveball:
In a Mets organization that places such emphasis on the slider and falls in love with fastballs that go over 95+ MPH, you could somewhat understand why Lugo wasn’t more highly regarded. You can really understand it when you consider he had a 6.50 ERA in AAA. Still, Lugo had a good repertoire including that curveball.
According to Statcast, Lugo’s curveball has a higher spin rate than anyone else’s in baseball. Yes, even Clayton Kershaw. The increased spin creates two effects: (1) it created downward movement inducing ground balls; and (2) it induces a number if swings and misses. Lugo’s curveball is a tremendous pitch, and it could very well have been the best pitch in a of the Mets minor league system.
Lugo likes to evenly mix all of his pitches. Even so, the curve is the money pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo generates the highest percentage of his strikeouts on the pitch. Furthermore, the pitch generates the lowest batting average against than any of his other pitches. Perhaps the reason why it’s so effective, other than its spin rate, is the fact that he’s very selective with the pitch. Other than his change, the curveball is the pitch Lugo throws the least often.
This means he mostly relies on his 93 MPH sinker and his 94 MPH fastball. What is impressive about his fastball is his ability to dial it up over 96 MPH in pressure spots. Lugo also has an 88 MPH slider which has been an effective pitch for him. If Warthen is able to help Lugo improve his slider like he has with everyone else on the staff, Lugo’s ceiling will go into the next stratosphere.
Again, the interesting thing breaking down Lugo’s pitches is you’re breaking down the pitches of a pitcher who had the stuff to be in a big league rotation. Prior to this season, there may not have been many who believed that. As Lugo was struggling in AAA, there were probably even fewer. And yet, here he is. He’s not just a major league pitcher, but he’s also an important piece of a rotation that may well be on its way to the postseason.
And all Lugo needed to show us all this was possible was a chance. He got it, and like deGrom, he has made the most of it.
Last night, the Mets received some devastating news when it was discovered that Neil Walker was going to miss the rest of the season due to a herniated disc that is going to require surgery. With Walker done for the year, the Mets are missing not only a good defender, but also a good bat. Someway, somehow the Mets are going to have to replace Walker’s .282/.347/.476 batting line and his 23 homers. It is no easy task.
The obvious solution is a Wilmer Flores – Kelly Johnson platoon. That tandem should be able to replicate Walker’s production as both are incredibly hot at the plate. Flores hit .306/.346/.542 in August with five homers and 19 RBI. Better yet, he is hitting .340/.386/.691 with 10 homers and 26 RBI off lefties this season. For his part, Johnson is hitting .289/.353/.511 with eight homers and 20 RBI in 60 games for the Mets. Over the last month, he is hitting .288/.348/.576 with five homers and 14 RBI. Johnson also had that game winning bases clearing RBI double last night that helped the Mets win the game.
If second base were the only issue, that would be fine. However, the Mets have issues at first base and shortstop that needs to be addressed.
At first base, the Mets have a floundering James Loney. In the month of August, he hit .213/.222/.447 with just one extra base hit. Worse yet, these numbers were with Terry Collins shielding him against left-handed pitching. As we saw last night, Collins is going to be forced to play Flores at first and Johnson at second. When you couple that with Asdrubal Cabrera dealing with a knee injury, the Mets do not have much margin for error.
Even with the rosters expanding today, that remains to be true as the players on the 40 man roster leave a lot to be desired as an everyday replacement.
the 40 man roster, the Mets have enigmatic options.
Eric Campbell is once again dominating AAA hitting .297/.396/.428 with 13 doubles, four triples, five homers, and 40 RBI. Yes, four triples. However, this follows a stint where he didn’t hit in the majors going .159/.270/.222.
Ty Kelly is coming off a decent stint in the majors where Collins shielded the switch-hitter against left-handed pitching. Since his demotion Kelly is hitting .258/.314/.290 with only one extra base hit in the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.
Finally, there is Matt Reynolds who hit .211/.231/.382 in 37 games with the Mets. After the AAA All Star Break, Reynolds has been hitting .255/.333/.294 with only four doubles in 102 at bats.
Keep in mind, T.J. Rivera is not an option at the moment as he needs to remain in the minors until next week because he was sent down to make room for Rafael Montero‘s spot start. This means that even though the Mets have warm bodies available to play the middle infield, they do not have players who can play everyday at the major league level.
With these three not hitting or having established they are not capable of hitting at the major league level, the Mets need to turn in another direction for help. With that in mind, the Mets best option is their 2012 first round draft pick Gavin Cecchini.
While playing shortstop this season, Cecchini has been hitting .327/.388/.449 with 27 doubles, two triples, seven homers, and 53 RBI. Over the past month, Cecchini is hitting .358/.378/.480 with nine doubles, two homers, and 12 RBI. While many have knocked his defense as he has a woeful .929 fielding percentage, it is notable that Cecchini has gone his last 14 games without an error.
For what it is worth, Cecchini has only played one game at secondin his minor league career, and that was Thursday. It should be noted with the rise of Amed Rosario and the trade of Dilson Herrera, Cecchini’s future will be second base. Given the fact that Collins had no issue throwing Reynolds into left field in a game without him having ever played there before, the concerns about him not being a second baseman are a bit overblown.
In reality, the only thing preventing the Mets from calling up Cecchini right now is the fact that he’s not on the 40 man roster. However, with the Jon Niese and Neil Walker injuries, the Mets have the opportunity to move either of them to the 60 day disabled list freeing up a spot for Cecchini. Keep in mind, the Mets are going to have to add Cecchini this offseason anyway to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
With the Mets needing to patch things together on the right side of their infield, they need as many options as possible. They also need some insurance for Cabrera’s knee. They could use another shortstop who could take over for Cabrera late in games to allow him to rest his knee. Furthermore, given the Mets team speed, they could use someone who could be available to pinch run late in games.
Cecchini could fulfill each of these roles quite well. Furthermore, if given the opportunity, he might just prove more valuable than that. At this point, there is really no good reason to keep Cecchini in AAA. He needs to be up in the majors now helping the Mets return to the postseason.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on Mets Minors